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5119725, 407 Pat “Time seres -Wikipesia
WIKIPEDIA
“The Free Encyclopedia
Time series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points
indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly,
a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced
points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data.
Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of
sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average.
‘A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which
is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics,
signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics,
mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake
prediction, clectroencephalography, control engineering,
astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any
domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements.
Time series: random data plus trend, with
bestit ine and different applied filters,
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract
meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a
model to predict future values based on previously observed values. While regression analysis is often
employed in such a way as to test relationships between one or more different time series, this type of
analysis is not usually called "time series analysis", which refers in particular to relationships between
different points in time within a single series.
Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from
cross-sectional studies, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations (e.g. explaining
people's wages by reference to their respective education levels, where the individuals’ data could be
entered in any order). Time series analysis is also distinct from spatial data analysis where the
observations typically relate to geographical locations (e.g. accounting for house prices by the location
as well as the intrinsic characteristics of the houses). A stochastic model for a time series will
generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than
observations further apart. In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way
ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past
values, rather than from future values (see time reversibility).
‘Time series analysis can be applied to real-valued, continuous data, discrete numeric data, or discrete
symbolic data (i.e. sequences of characters, such as letters and words in the English language!")),
Methods for analysis
Methods for time series analysis may be divided into two classes: frequency-domain methods and
time-domain methods. The former include spectral analysis and wavelet analysis; the latter include
auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis. In the time domain, correlation and analysis can be
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made in a filter-like manner using scaled correlation, thereby mitigating the need to operate in the
frequency domain.
‘Additionally, time series analysis techniques may be divided into parametric and non-parametric
methods. The parametric approaches assume that the underlying stationary stochastic process has a
certain structure which can be described using a small number of parameters (for example, using an
autoregressive or moving average model). In these approaches, the task is to estimate the parameters
of the model that describes the stochastic process. By contrast, non-parametric approaches explicitly
estimate the covariance or the spectrum of the process without assuming that the process has any
particular structure.
Methods of time series analysis may also be divided into linear and non-linear, and univariate and
multivariate.
Panel data
A time series is one type of panel data. Panel data is the general class, a multidimensional data set,
whereas a time series data set is a one-dimensional panel (as is a cross-sectional dataset). A data set
may exhibit characteristics of both panel data and time series data. One way to tell is to ask what
makes one data record unique from the other records. If the answer is the time data field, then this is
a time series data set candidate. If determining a unique record requires a time data field and an
additional identifier which is unrelated to time (e.g. student ID, stock symbol, country code), then it is
panel data candidate. If the differentiation lies on the non-time identifier, then the data set is z
sectional data set candidate.
Analysis
There are several types of motivation and data analysis available for time series which are appropriate
for different purposes.
Motivation
In the context of statistics, econometrics, quantitative finance, seismology, meteorology, and
geophysics the primary goal of time series analysis is forecasting. In the context of signal processing,
control engineering and communication engineering it is used for signal detection. Other applications
are in data mining, pattern recognition and machine learning, where time series analysis can be used
for clustering, 2113! classification, 4! query by content,'5! anomaly detection as well as forecasting.!6
Exploratory analysis
A straightforward way to examine a regular time series is manually with a line chart, An example
chart is shown on the right for tuberculosis incidence in the United States, made with a spreadsheet
program. The number of cases was standardized to a rate per 100,000 and the percent change per
year in this rate was calculated. The nearly steadily dropping line shows that the TB incidence was
decreasing in most years, but the percent change in this rate varied by as much as +/- 10%, with
‘surges’ in 1975 and around the early 1990s. The use of both vertical axes allows the comparison of
two time series in one graphic.
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A study of corporate data analysts found two challenges to
exploratory time series analysis: discovering the shape of _ mene
core
interesting patterns, and finding an explanation for these | .
patterns.!7] Visual tools that represent time series data as heat re)
map matrices can help overcome these challenges. P 4
Other techniques include: ia ae
= Autocorrelation analysis to examine serial dependence ee
iborculosis incidence US 1953.
= Spectral analysis to examine cyclic behavior which need not
be related to seasonality, For example, sunspot activity varies
over 11 year cycles.29! Other common examples include
celestial phenomena, weather patterns, neural activity, commodity prices, and economic activity.
= Separation into components representing trend, seasonality, slow and fast variation, and cyclical
irregularity: see trend estimation and decomposition of time series
Curve
ing
Curve fitting!!°ll4 js the process of constructing a curve, or mathematical function, that has the best
fit to a series of data points," possibly subject to constraints.2304] Curve fitting can involve either
interpolation,“5I6 where an exact fit to the data is required, or smoothing,“7I08] in which a
“smooth” function is constructed that approximately fits the data. A related topic is regression
analysis,491l201 which focuses more on questions of statistical inference such as how much
uncertainty is present in a curve that is fit to data observed with random errors. Fitted curves can be
used as an aid for data visualization,2II22] to infer values of a function where no data are
available,23) and to summarize the relationships among two or more variables.!24) Extrapolation
refers to the use of a fitted curve beyond the range of the observed data,(251 and is subject to a degree
of uncertainty!2¢! since it may reflect the method used to construct the curve as much as it reflects the
observed data.
The construction of economic time series involves the estimation of some components for some dates
by interpolation between values ("benchmarks") for earlier and later dates. Interpolation is estimation
of an unknown quantity between two known quantities (historical data), or drawing conclusions
about missing information from the available information (“reading between the lines").[27!
Interpolation is useful where the data surrounding the missing data is available and its trend,
seasonality, and longer-term cycles are known. This is often done by using a related series known for
all relevant dates.!281 Alternatively polynomial interpolation or spline interpolation is used where
piecewise polynomial functions are fit into time intervals such that they fit smoothly together. A
different problem which is closely related to interpolation is the approximation of a complicated
function by a simple function (also called regression). The main difference between regression and
interpolation is that polynomial regression gives a single polynomial that models the entire data set.
Spline interpolation, however, yield a piecewise continuous function composed of many polynomials
to model the data set.
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Extrapolation is the process of estimating, beyond the original observation range, the value of a
variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable. It is similar to interpolation, which
produces estimates between known observations, but extrapolation is subject to greater uncertainty
and a higher risk of producing meaningless results.
Function approximation
In general, a function approximation problem asks us to select a function among a well-defined class
that closely matehes ("approximates") a target function in a task-specifie way. One can distinguish
two major classes of function approximation problems: First, for known target functions,
approximation theory is the branch of numerical analysis that investigates how certain known
functions (for example, special functions) can be approximated by a specific class of functions (for
example, polynomials or rational functions) that often have desirable properties (inexpensive
computation, continuity, integral and limit values, ete.).
Second, the target function, call it g, may be unknown; instead of an explicit formula, only a set of
points (a time series) of the form (x, 9(x)) is provided. Depending on the structure of the domain and
codomain of g, several techniques for approximating g may be applicable. For example, if g is an
operation on the real numbers, techniques of interpolation, extrapolation, regression analysis, and
curve fitting can be used. If the codomain (range or target set) of g is a finite set, one is dealing with a
classification problem instead. A related problem of online time series approximation!?9! is to
summarize the data in one-pass and construct an approximate representation that can support a
variety of time series queries with bounds on worst-case error.
To some extent, the different problems (regression, classification, fitness approximation) have
received a unified treatment in statistical learning theory, where they are viewed as supervised
learning problems.
Prediction and forecasting
In statistics, prediction is a part of statistical inference. One particular approach to such inference is
known as predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several
approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one description of statistics is that it provides a means of
transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related
populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is
transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.
= Fully formed statistical models for stochastic simulation purposes, so as to generate alternative
versions of the time series, representing what might happen over non-specific time-periods in the
future
= Simple or fully formed statistical models to describe the likely outcome of the time series in the
immediate future, given knowledge of the most recent outcomes (forecasting).
«= Forecasting on time series is usually done using automated statistical software packages and
programming languages, such as Julia, Python, R, SAS, SPSS and many others.
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= Forecasting on large scale data can be done with Apache Spark using the Spark-TS library, a
third-party package 89)
Classification
Assigning time series pattern to a specific category, for example identify a word based on series of
hand movements in sign language.
Signal estimation
This approach is based on harmonic analysis and filtering of signals in the frequency domain using
the Fourier transform, and spectral density estimation, the development of which was significantly
accelerated during World War II by mathematician Norbert Wiener, electrical engineers Rudolf E.
Kélman, Dennis Gabor and others for filtering signals from noise and predicting signal values at a
certain point in time. See Kalman filter, Estimation theory, and Digital signal processing
Segmentation
Splitting a time-series into a sequence of segments. It is often the case that a time-series can be
represented as a sequence of individual segments, each with its own characteristic properties. For
example, the audio signal from a conference call can be partitioned into pieces corresponding to the
times during which each person was speaking. In time-series segmentation, the goal is to identify the
segment boundary points in the time-series, and to characterize the dynamical properties associated
with each segment. One can approach this problem using change-point detection, or by modeling the
time-series as a more sophisticated system, such as a Markov jump linear system.
Models
Models for time series data can have many forms and represent different stochastic processes. When
modeling variations in the level of a process, three broad classes of practical importance are the
autoregressive (AR) models, the integrated (1) models, and the moving average (MA) models. These
three classes depend linearly on previous data points.'3!! Combinations of these ideas produce
autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
models. The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model generalizes the
former three. Extensions of these classes to deal with vector-valued data are available under the
heading of multivariate time-series models and sometimes the preceding acronyms are extended by
including an initial "V" for "vector", as in VAR for vector autoregression. An additional set of
extensions of these models is available for use where the observed time-series is driven by some
“forcing” time-series (which may not have a causal effect on the observed series): the distinction from
the multivariate case is that the forcing series may be deterministic or under the experimenter's
control. For these models, the acronyms are extended with a final "X" for "exogenous".
Non-linear dependence of the level of a series on previous data points is of interest, partly because of
the possibility of producing a chaotic time series. However, more importantly, empirical
investigations can indicate the advantage of using predictions derived from non-linear models, over
those from linear models, as for example in nonlinear autoregressive exogenous models. Further
references on nonlinear time series analysis: (Kantz and Schreiber), 22) and (Abarbanel)!33!
hitpsion. wikipedia orghwikTime_sorios 54sit973, 407 Pmt “Tne series - Whipedia
Among other types of non-linear time series models, there are models to represent the changes of
variance over time (heteroskedasti ‘These models represent autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the collection comprises a wide variety of representation (GARCH,
TARCH, EGARCH, FIGARCH, CGARCH, ete.). Here changes in variability are related to, or predicted
by, recent past values of the observed series. This is in contrast to other possible representations of
locally varying variability, where the variability might be modelled as being driven by a separate time-
varying process, as in a doubly stochastic model.
In recent work on model-free analyses, wavelet transform based methods (for example locally
stationary wavelets and wavelet decomposed neural networks) have gained favor. Multiscale (often
referred to as multiresolution) techniques decompose a given time series, attempting to illustrate time
dependence at multiple scales. See also Markov switching multifractal (MSMF) techniques for
modeling volatility evolution,
A Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is
assumed to be a Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states. An HMM can be considered as the
simplest dynamic Bayesian network. HMM models are widely used in speech recognition, for
translating a time series of spoken words into text.
Notation
A number of different notations are in use for time-series analysis. A common notation specifying a
time series X that is indexed by the natural numbers is written
)
X= (Xi, X2,
Another common notation is
Y=(YpteT),
where Tis the index set.
Cond
There are two sets of conditions under which much of the theory is built:
= Stationary process
= Ergodic process
Ergodicity implies stationarity, but the converse is not necessarily the case. Stationarity is usually
classified into strict stationarity and wide-sense or second-order stationarity. Both models and
applications can be developed under each of these conditions, although the models in the latter case
might be considered as only partly specified.
hitpsion wikipedia orghwkiTine_¢ enesi9123,407 PM “Time series - Wikipedia
In addition, time-series analysis can be applied where the series are seasonally stationary or non-
stationary. Situations where the amplitudes of frequency components change with time can be dealt
with in time-frequency analysis which makes use of a time-frequency representation of a time-series
or signal.{341
Tools
Tools for investigating time-series data includ
= Consideration of the autocorrelation function and the spectral density function (also cross-
correlation functions and cross-spectral density functions)
« Scaled cross- and auto-correlation functions to remove contributions of slow components!5]
= Performing a Fourier transform to investigate the series in the frequency domain
= Discrete, continuous or mixed spectra of time series, depending on whether the time series
contains a (generalized) harmonic signal or not
= Use of a filter to remove unwanted noise
= Principal component analysis (or empirical orthogonal function analysis)
= Singular spectrum analysis
= “Structural” models:
= General State Space Models
= Unobserved Components Models
= Machine Learning
= Artificial neural networks
= Support vector machine
= Fuzzy logic
= Gaussian process
= Genetic Programming
= Gene expression programming
= Hidden Markov model
= Multi expression programming
= Queueing theory analysis
= Control chart
= Shewhart individuals control chart
= CUSUM chart
= EWMA chart
= Detrended fluctuation analysis
= Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling
= Dynamic time warping!®)
= Dynamic Bayesian network
= Time-frequency analysis techniques:
= Fast Fourier transform
= Continuous wavelet transform
= Short-time Fourier transform
hitpsion.wikipdia org Ti
m45719723, 4.07 Pet Time sores -Wikipecia
= Chirplet transform
= Fractional Fourier transform
= Chaotic analysis
= Correlation dimension
Recurrence plots
Recurrence quantification analysis
Lyapunov exponents
Entropy encoding
Measures
Time series metrics or features that can be used for time series classification or regression
analysis;(371
= Univariate linear measures
= Moment (mathematics)
= Spectral band power
= Spectral edge frequency
= Accumulated Energy (signal processing)
= Characteristics of the autocorrelation function
= Hjorth parameters
= FFT parameters
= Autoregressive model parameters
= Mann—Kendall test
= Univariate non-linear measures
= Measures based on the correlation sum
= Correlation dimension
= Correlation integral
= Correlation density
= Correlation entropy
= Approximate entropy!
= Sample entropy
«= Fourier entropy
= Wavelet entropy
= Dispersion entropy
= Fluctuation dispersion entropy
= Rényi entropy
= Higher-order methods
= Marginal predictability
= Dynamical similarity index
= State space dissimilarity measures
= Lyapunov exponent
= Permutation methods
[38]
hitpsion. wikipedia orghwikTime_sorios ane5119725, 407 Pat Time series - Wikipedia
= Local flow
Other univariate measures
= Algorithmic complexity
Kolmogorov complexity estimates
Hidden Markov Model states
Rough path signature!29)
Surrogate time series and surrogate correction
= Loss of recurrence (degree of non-stationarity)
Bivariate linear measures
= Maximum linear cross-correlation
= Linear Coherence (signal processing)
Bivariate non-linear measures
= Non-linear interdependence
= Dynamical Entrainment (physics)
= Measures for Phase synchronization
= Measures for Phase locking
Similarity measures:!“°
= Cross-correlation
= Dynamic Time Warping!*4)
= Hidden Markov Models
= Edit distance
= Total correlation
= Newey-West estimator
= Prais—Winsten transformation
= Data as Vectors in a Metrizable Space
= Minkowski distance
= Mahalanobis distance
= Data as time series with envelopes
= Global standard deviation
= Local standard deviation
= Windowed standard deviation
«= Data interpreted as stochastic series
= Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient
= Spearman's rank correlation coefficient
= Data interpreted as a probability distribution function
= Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
= Cramér-von Mises criterion
Visualization
hitpsion wikipedia orghwkiTine_¢
onesi9123,407 PM Time seres - Wikipecia
Time series can be visualized with two categories of chart: Overlapping Charts and Separated Charts.
Overlapping Charts display all-time series on the same layout while Separated Charts presents them
on different layouts (but aligned for comparison purpose)!4")
Overlapping charts
= Braided graphs
= Line charts
= Slope graphs
= GapChart"
Separated charts
= Horizon graphs
= Reduced line chart (small multiples)
= Silhouette graph
= Circular silhouette graph
See also
= Anomaly time series
= Chirp
= Decomposition of time series
= Detrended fluctuation analysis
= Digital signal processing
= Distributed lag
= Estimation theory
= Forecasting
= Frequency spectrum
= Hurst exponent
= Least-squares spectral analysis
= Monte Carlo method
= Panel analysis
= Random walk
= Scaled correlation
= Seasonal adjustment
= Sequence analysis
= Signal processing
= Time series database (TSDB)
= Trend estimation
= Unevenly spaced time series
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35. Nikolié, D.; Muresan, R. C.; Feng, W.; Singer, W. (2012). "Sealed correlation analysis: a better
way to compute a cross-correlogram" (https://semanticscholar.org/paper/caa784fc3c22656413143
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38. Land, Bruce; Elias, Damian. "Measuring the ‘Complexity’ of a time series" (http:/Awww.nbb.cornell.
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39, [1] Chevyrey, |., Kormiltzin, A. (2016) "A Primer on the Signature Method in Machine Leaming (htt
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Further reading
= De Gooijer, Jan G.; Hyndman, Rob J. (2006). "25 Tears of Time Series Forecasting’. International
Journal of Forecasting. Twenty Five Years of Forecasting, 22 (3): 443-473.
CiteSeerX 10.1.1.154.9227 (https://citeseerx ist. psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.154.9227)
doi:10.1016j.jforecast.2006,01,001 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2F forecast.2006,01.001)..
‘S2CID 14996235 (https://api.semanticscholar. org/CorpusiD:14996235).
= Box, George; Jenkins, Gwilym (1976), Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control, rev. ed.,
Oakland, California: Holden-Day
= Durbin J., Koopman S.J, (2001), Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods, Oxford University
Press.
= Gershenfeld, Neil (2000), The Nature of Mathematical Modeling, Cambridge University Press,
ISBN 978-0-521-57095-4, OCLC 174825352 (https://www.worldcal.org/occ/174825352)
= Hamilton, James (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-
04289-3
= Priestley, M. B. (1981), Spectral Analysis and Time Series, Academic Press. ISBN 978-0-12-
564901-8
= Shasha, D. (2004), High Performance Discovery in Time Series, Springer, ISBN 978-0-387-
00857-8
= Shumway R.H., Stoffer D. S. (2017), Time Series Analysis and its Applications: With R Examples
(ed. 4), Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-52451-1
= Weigend A. S., Gershenfeld N. A. (Eds.) (1994), Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future
and Understanding the Past. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Comparative Time Series Analysis (Santa Fe, May 1992), Addison-Wesley.
= Wiener, N. (1949), Extrapolation, Interpolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series, MIT
Press,
= Woodward, W.A., Gray, H. L. & Elliott, A. C. (2012), Applied Time Series Analysis, CRC Press.
hitpsion. wikipedia orghwikTime_sorios sa5719723, 4.07 Pet Time series - Wikipedia
= Auffarth, Ben (2021). Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python: Forecast, predict, and detect
anomalies with state-of-the-art machine learning methods (hitps://www.packtpub.com/productma
chine-learning-for-time-series-with-python/9781801819626) (1st ed.). Packt Publishing. ISBN 978-
1801819626. Retrieved 5 November 2021
External links
= Introduction to Time series Analysis (Engineering Statistics Handbook) (http://www.itl.nist.gov/div8
‘98/handbook/pme/section4/pme4.htm) — A practical guide to Time series analysis.
Retrieved from “https://en. wikipedia. org/wlindex php?title=Time_seriesBoldid=1150313391"
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