Lecture 2 Exponential growth:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃0 𝑒 𝑟𝑛 OR 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛𝑃0 + 𝑟𝑛

𝐶𝐵𝑅 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑃𝑛
𝑃0 = OR 𝑙𝑛𝑃0 = 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑛 − 𝑟𝑛
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑒 𝑟𝑛
𝐶𝐷𝑅 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑃
𝑙𝑛 𝑃𝑛
0
𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 – 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑟=
𝑅𝑁𝐼 = × 1000 𝑛
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑃
𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑛 𝑛
𝑃0
𝑅𝑁𝑀 = × 1000 𝑛=
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟
𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑐𝑕𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 = 𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃0 𝑙𝑛2
𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =
𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃0 𝑟
𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑐𝑕𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 = × 100
𝑃0
𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃0
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 =
𝑛 Lecture 3
𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃0 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑛 𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝐴𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑕𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡𝑕 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 100 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑃0
𝑃0−14
Geometric growth: 𝐶𝑕𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑃15−64
𝑛
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃0 (1 + 𝑟) OR 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑃𝑛 = 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑃0 + 𝑛𝑙𝑜𝑔(1 + 𝑟)
𝑃65+
𝑃𝑛 𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑃0 = OR 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑃0 = 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑃𝑛 − 𝑛𝑙𝑜𝑔(1 + 𝑟) 𝑃15−64
(1+𝑟)𝑛
𝑃0−14 + 𝑃65+
𝑙𝑜𝑔
𝑃𝑛 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑛 𝑃𝑛 𝑃0 𝑃15−64
𝑟= −1 OR 𝑙𝑜𝑔 1 + 𝑟 =
𝑃0 𝑛 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑃 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑃𝑛
𝑛= 0 𝑃65+
𝑙𝑜𝑔(1 + 𝑟) 𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 = × 100
𝑃0−14
𝑙𝑜𝑔2 𝑃80+
𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑙𝑜𝑔(1 + 𝑟) 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠50−64
𝑁
−𝐹
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 = 𝑙 + 2 ×𝑖
𝑓
Lecture 4
𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥
𝐴𝑆𝐷𝑅 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑔𝑒
𝐼𝑀𝑅 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 28 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕
𝑁𝑀𝑅 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 29 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕
𝑃𝑁𝑀𝑅 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 28 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 7 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕
𝑃𝑀𝑅 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 28 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑆𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒
𝐶𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 − 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 100000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥
𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑆𝐷𝑅 = × 100
𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥
𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠
𝑀𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100000
𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠
𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 𝑘 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑘 = 1000 𝑜𝑟 100000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 𝑘 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑘 = 1000 𝑜𝑟 100000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑋 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 =
𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑋 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑋 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑋 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟

Lecture 5
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑕𝑜𝑑 = × 1000
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠
𝑆𝑀𝑅 = × 100
𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑕𝑜𝑑 = 𝑆𝑀𝑅 × 𝐶𝐷𝑅
Lecture 6
𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 Lecture 7
𝐺𝐹𝑅 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 − 49
q x 5
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑕𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 0 − 4 a 5

𝐶𝑊𝑅 = × 1000 5qx

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 − 49
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛 Dx
Mx  n
𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅 = × 1000 n
Px
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛 n

𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑣𝑒 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅𝑠 qx 

n n M x 
𝑇𝐹𝑅 = ×5 n
1  n  n k x n M x 
1000
𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑣𝑒 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑕𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 lx n
𝐺𝑅𝑅 = ×5  1 n q x
1000 lx
𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 (𝑓𝑖𝑣𝑒 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑕𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 × 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑡𝑕𝑒𝑟’𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝)
𝑁𝑅𝑅 = ×5 ndx = lx – lx+n
1000
𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1L0 = 1k0۰ l0.+ (1 – 1k0 ) l1
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 4L1 = 4k1۰ l1.+ (4 – 4k1 ) l5
𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000 5Lx = 2.5 (lx + lx+5) x = 5, 10,….., 75
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
1k0 = 0.0425 + 2.875 1q0 for male
𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000 1k0 = 0.05 + 3.01q0 for female
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 +
4k1 = 1.653 – 3.013 1q0 for male
𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 + 4k1 = 1.524 – 1.6251q0 for female
𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 L80+ = 3.725 (l80) + 0.0000625 (l80) 2
𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑛𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟 − 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑
5 L0
𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛 s0 
𝐴𝑔𝑒 − 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 = × 1000 5l0 
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛
𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛 L5
𝐴𝑔𝑒 − 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 = × 1000 s1  5

𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥 + 𝑛 5 L0

𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 L x 5
𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000 s  5
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 5 x
Lx
5

L80
s 75 
L 75

dx
n mx  n

n Lx
yw
Tx   L y
yx
 Tx Lecture 9
ex 
lx Methods based on growth rates:
𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑥
Arithmetic: 𝑃𝑥 = 𝑃0 + (𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃0 ) 𝑛
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑚 =
𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Housing unit method:
Total population = (number of dwellings × proportion occupied × average number of persons per
occupied dwelling) + numbers in other accommodation
Lecture 8
Other indicator methods:
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = (a) Apportionment:
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝑋𝑖 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝐿𝑄𝑖 = 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑝. = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑡 𝑝𝑜𝑝.×
𝑌𝑖 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑛

𝐼𝑅 = 0.5 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖 (b) Ratio change:

𝑖=1
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑛 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑝. = 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑝. 𝑎𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 0 ×
𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 0
𝐼𝐶 = 0.5 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖
𝑖=1

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 (c) Additive change:

𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 Estimated small area pop. = small area pop. at year 0 + change in small area indicator
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑅𝑜𝑜𝑚 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑜𝑜𝑚𝑠
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠
𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = Lecture 10
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
𝐴𝑔𝑒 − 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑒𝑛𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 (𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠) = × 𝑘 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑘 = 1 𝑜𝑟 100
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = × 1000 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐿𝐹𝑥
𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑅𝑥 = × 𝑘 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑘 = 1 𝑜𝑟 100
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = × 1000 𝑃𝑥
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑕𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑕𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑕𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
(𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑠 − 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠) 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑕𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑕𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠𝑕𝑖𝑝 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 𝑘 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑘 = 1 𝑜𝑟 100
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = × 1000 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑕𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑕𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑠
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛
(𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑠 + 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠)
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = × 1000 𝐼𝐷 = 0.5 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖=1
𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑊 = 1 − ∑𝑥 2
𝑀𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
1
Net migration (vital statistics method): 𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝐴𝑊 = 1 −
𝑛
I − O = Pt − P0 − B − D
 𝐴𝑊 𝐴𝑊 𝑛
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = = 𝐴𝑊
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝐴𝑊 1 − 1 𝑛−1
𝑛