Chapter I

Permutation and Combination

st
MBS 1 Semester
By
Govinda Gyawali
Permutation:
If some elements or items are selected based on order from a group of items
, then this ordered set is termed as permutation.
Suppose a sample space contains ‘n’ number of items and ‘r’ items are to be
selected orderly then the permutation of ‘n’ different items taken ‘r’ at a
time can be written as
n!
𝐧𝐏𝐫 = P(n,r) =
n−r !
Example: Suppose there are 5 balls ,a group of two balls is to be formed.
How many ways can the two balls be arranged?
Solution: Here, total number of balls(n) =5 , no. of balls used to form a
group(r) =2
5! 5! 5×4×3×2×1
Therefore, the no. of ways = 𝐧𝐏𝐫 = 𝟓𝐏𝟐 = = = =20 ways
5−2 ! 3! 3×2×1
Combination:
It is the arrangement of the objects taking certain objects at a time irrespective
of the order of arrangement. The position of the object is meaningless in
combination.
Therefore, the combination is used when the position of the object does not
make any meanings.
𝒏!
𝒏𝑪𝒓 =
𝒏−𝒓 !𝒓!

Example: Suppose there are 5 balls ,a group of two balls is to be formed.

How many ways can the two balls be selected?
Solution: Here, total number of balls(n) =5 , no. of balls used to form a
group(r) =2
5! 5! 5×4×3×2×1
Therefore, the no. of ways = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟓𝑪𝟐 = = = =10
5−2 ! 2! 3!2! 3×2×1×2×1
ways
 Contd….
Total balls = 5
1 2 3 4 5

The possible cases are =10

1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

1 3 2 4 3 5

1 4 2 5

1 5
Fundamental of Counting
Total balls = 3 blue + 2 white = 5
1 2 3 44 55
One blue and one white = 3C1× 𝟐𝑪𝟏 = 𝟔
Prob(one blue and one white) = 6/10=0.6
The possible cases are = 10

1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

1 3 2 4 3 5

1 44 2 5

1 5
Numerical Example:
A box contains 3 red and 2white balls. Two balls are drawn at random.
Find the probability of selecting (i) both red (ii) both non-red (iii) same
color [ both red or both white] (iv) different color ( a red and a white)
(v) At least one red and (vi) at most one red.

Solution:
Number of balls = 3 red + 2 white =5
Two balls are drawn at random
Total no. of cases(n) = 𝟓𝑪𝟐 = 10
Contd….
Total balls = 3 red + 2 white = 5 balls
1 2 3 44 55

The possible cases are =10

1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

1 3 2 4 3 5

1 44 i) Favourable Cases for getting both balls are red

2 5 = 3C2× 𝟐𝑪𝟎 = 𝟑
Prob(both red) = 3/10
1 5
Contd….
ii) Favorable cases for cases for non-red balls ie both white
= 𝟐𝑪𝟐 =1
P( both white or non-red) = 1/10
iii) Favorable cases for same color
= 2 red + 2 white
= 𝟑𝑪𝟐 + 𝟐𝑪𝟐 = 3+1 =4
P(same colour) = 4/10 =0.4
iv) Favorable cases for different colour ( one red and one white)
= 𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟐𝑪𝟏 = 6
P( different colour) = P(a red and a white) = 6/10 =0.6
Contd…
v) Favorable cases for at least one red
Red (3) 1 2

White(2) 1 0

= 𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟐𝑪𝟏 + 𝟑𝑪𝟐 × 𝟐𝑪𝟎

= 3 ×2 + 3 ×1= 9
P(at least one red) = 9/10 = 0.9
OR Favorable cases for cases for non-red
balls ie both white
P( at least one red) = 1- p(non-red) = 𝟐𝑪𝟐 =1
P( both white or non-red) = 1/10
= 1- 0.1 = 0.9
Contd…
vi) Favorable cases for at most one red
Red(3) 0 1
White(2) 2 1

= 𝟑𝑪𝟎 × 𝟐𝑪𝟐 + 𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟐𝑪𝟏

= 1× 1 + 3 × 2
=7
P( at most one red) = 7/10 =0.7
Numerical Example
A working committee of 4 members has to be formed from among 6
managers, 4 technicians , 3 supervisors and 2 trainers.
- What is the probability of selecting each of four professions in the
committee?
- What is the probability that the committee consists of one trainer as a
member and 3 others?
- What is the probability that the committee has at least one technician?
- What is the probability that the committee has at most 2 managers?
Solution:
Total number of members= 6 managers+ 4 technicians + 3 supervisors+
2 trainers
= 15
Total number of possible cases for the selection of 4 members(out of 15)
= 𝟏𝟓𝑪𝟒 = 1365
i) Favorable cases for selecting each of four professions in the
committee
= 𝟔𝑪𝟏 × 𝟒𝑪𝟏 × 𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟐𝑪𝟏 Points to remember
= 6 × 4 × 3 ×2 Total number of members= 6 managers+ 4
technicians + 3 supervisors+2 trainers
= 144 = 15

P( Each of four profession) = 144/ 1365

ii) Favorable cases for consisting one trainer as a member and 3 other
= 𝟐𝑪𝟏 × 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟑
= 2 × 286 = 572
P( one trainer and three others) = 572/1365
iii) Favorable cases for at least one technician in the four members
committee. Possible cases I ii iii iv
Technician (4) 1 2 3 4
Others (11) 3 2 1 0

= 𝟒𝑪𝟏 × 𝟏𝟏𝑪𝟑 + 𝟒𝑪𝟐 × 𝟏𝟏𝑪𝟐 + 𝟒𝑪𝟑 × 𝟏𝟏𝑪𝟏 + 𝟒𝑪𝟒 × 𝟏𝟏𝑪𝟎

= 4× 165 + 6 × 55 + 4× 11 + 1 × 1
= 1035
P( at least one technician) = 1035/1365 = 0.76
iv) Favorable cases for at most two managers in the four members
committee. Managers(6) 0 1 2
Others(9) 4 3 2

= 𝟔 𝑪𝟎 × 𝟗 𝑪𝟒 + 𝟔 𝑪𝟏 × 𝟗 𝑪𝟑 + 𝟔𝑪𝟐 × 𝟗𝑪𝟐
Contd…
= 126× 1 + 6 × 84 + 15× 36
= 1170
P( at most 2 managers) = 1170/1365= 0.86
Numerical Example:
A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of obtaining (i) all
heads (ii) no head (iii) one head and two tails (iv) two heads (v) at most
one head (vi) at least one head (vii) less than one head (vii) more than
one head and (ix) head, tail and head in order.
Solution:
When a coin is tossed three times, then total no. of possible case
= {H,T} × {H,T} × {H,T}
= { HH, HT, TH, TT} × {H,T}
= {HHH, HTH, THH, TTH, HHT, HTT, THT, TTT }
Contd…
= {HHH, HTH, THH, TTH, HHT, HTT, THT, TTT }
i) P( all heads) = 1/8 {HHH}
ii) P(no heads) = P(all tails) = 1/8 {TTT }
iii) P (one heads and two tails) = 3/8 {TTH, HTT, THT}
iv) P(two heads) = 3/8 {HTH, THH, HHT}
v) P ( at most one head) = 4/8=1/2 {TTH, HTT, THT, TTT }
vi) P (at least one head) = 7/8
{HHH, HTH, THH, TTH, HHT, HTT,THT }
vii) P( less than one head) = P(no heads) = 1/8 { TTT}
viii) P(more than one head) = 4/8 =1/2 {HHH, HTH, THH, HHT}
ix) P(head, tail and head in order) = 1/8 {HTH}
Numerical Example:
What is the probability that (i) a leap year (ii) non- leap year selected at
randomly will contain 53 Mondays ?
Solution
i)In leap year, there are 366 days ie 52 weeks (52×7=364 days) and 2
days over. The two days over may be either
{Sun, Mon} or {Mon, Tue} or {Tue, Wed} or {Wed, Thu} or {Thu, Fri}
or {Fri, Sat} or {Sat, Sun}
Total no. possible cases (n) = 7
Favorable cases ie Monday (m) =2 {Sun- Mon ,Mon- Tue}
Prob( Monday) = m/n = 2/7
Contd……
ii) In non leap year, there are 365 days ie 52 weeks (52×7=364 days)
and 1 day over. The 1 day over may be either
{Sunday} or {Monday} or {Tuesday} or {Wednesday} or {Thursday}
or {Friday} or {Saturday}
Total no. possible cases (n) = 7
Favorable cases i.e. Monday (m) =1 { Monday }
Prob( Monday) = m/n = 1/7
Numerical Example:
In a group of equal number of men and women, 20% of men and 30%
of women are unemployed. What is the probability that a person
selected at random is employed?
Solution:
Let , number of men =100 and number of women = 100
Employed Unemployed Total
Men 80 20 100
Women 70 30 100
Total 150 50 200

Total no.of persons i.e. cases (n) = 200

Favorable cases for employed (m) = 150
P( employed ) = m/n =150/200 =0.75
Numerical Example:
The distribution of 500 workers of a factory according to sex and
nature of work is as follows:
Skilled Unskilled Total
Male 250 50 300
Female 150 50 200
Total 400 100 500

If a worker is selected at random, what is the probability that the

selected worker is (i) unskilled worker (ii) male and skilled worker?
Solution:
i) P(unskilled worker) = 100/500 = 1/5
ii) P( male and skilled worker) =250/500=1/2
EXAMPLES on Dice
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
P(green) =0.7
P(red) =0.3
If there are three traffic lights on the way of home , each light consists Red(R) or Green(G)
then total no. of possible case
= {G,R} × {G,R} × {G,R}
= { GG, GR, RG, RR} × {G,R}
= {GGG, GRG, RGG, RRG, GGR, GRR, RGR, RRR}
The total no. of possible outcomes =8
P(GGG) =0.7*0.7*0.7 P(Stopping not more than one time)
P(GRG) = 0.7*0.3*07 = P(GGG) + P(RGG)+ P(GRG)+ P(GGR)
P(RGG)=0.3*0.7*0.7= =0.7*0.7*0.7+ 0.3*0.7*0.7+0.7*0.3*07+0.7*0.7*0.3
P(RRG) =0.3*0.3*07= = 0.78
P(GGR)=0.7*0.7*0.3
P( GRR)=0.7*0.3*0.3
P( RGR) = 0.3*0.7*0.3
P(RRR} = 03*0.3*0.3
All events are not equally likely because they have not same probability.
Statistical Methods
st
MBS 1 Semester
By
Govinda Gyawali
Butwal Multiple Campus
 Probability
Probability : Probability is a numerical measure( with a
value lying between 0 and 1) of the likelihood that a
particular event will occur or not. Its value always lies
between 0 and 1. It is usually denoted by ‘p’.
Basic Terminology used in
Probability
Random experiment:
Trial and event: Performing an experiment is know as trial. Result of an
experiment is known as event. For eg. In tossing an unbiased coin is a
trial and getting either head or tail is an event.
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is known as sample space. It is usually
denoted by ‘S’. In tossing two unbiased coins the possible outcome are
representing in the sample space are as follows
Sample space (S)= {H,T}×{H,T}= {HH,HT,TH,TT}
Contd……………
Exhaustive cases: Total no. of possible outcomes of an
experiment is known as exhaustive no. of cases.
In tossing two unbiased coins , the total no. of possible
outcomes or exhaustive no. of cases=4.
Equally likely events: If the events have equal chance
is known as equally likely.
In tossing, an unbiased coin head and tail are equally likely.
Selecting any one student from a class is equally likely because
every student has equal chance of being selection.
Mutually exclusive cases: The probability getting
one event excludes the happening of other events.
In tossing a single coin we may get either head or tail but not
both.
Contd………..
Favorable events:
The number of outcomes of a random experiment
which results in the happening of an event is termed as
favorable event.
For eg In drawing a card from a pack of 52
playing cards , the favorable cases for
drawing a queen is 4.
Independent Events:
If the happening of one events does not affect the
happening of the other event.
For eg. Occurrence of head in first tossing is
independent of occurrence of head in the second
tossing
Contd……….
Dependent Events:
If the happening of one event affects the happening of the other
event.
For eg. If we want to select two students from group of five students,
selecting one student at a time, the selection of second student
without considering the previously selected student in the group is
dependent.
Laws (or Rules) of Probability

Following are the laws of probability

➢Additive Law
➢Multiplicative Law
Additive law of Probability:
i) Mutually exclusive Cases:
Suppose A and B are two mutually exclusive events then probability of
happening either event A or event B is sum of their individual
probability.
P(A or B) = P(A∪ 𝐁) = P(A) + P(B)
Similarly, A, B, and C are three mutually exclusive
events then
P(A or B or C) = P(A∪B∪C)= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)
ii) Not mutually exclusive case :
Suppose the events A and B are not mutually exclusive
events (joint events) then the probability of happening
at least one of them is
P( A or B) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A and B)
OR
P( A∪ 𝑩) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A∩B)
Alternatively,
P( at least one of them) = 1- P(None of them)
= 1- P(𝑨ഥ )𝑷(𝑩
ഥ)
Contd……
Similarly, A, B, and C are three not mutually exclusive events then the
occurrence of at least any one them is given by
P(A or B or C)=P(A∪B∪C)= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)- P(A and B) –
P(B and C) –P(A and C)+P(A and B and C)
Alternatively,
P( at least one of them) =1- P(none of them)
ഥ ). 𝑷(𝑩
= 1- P(𝑨 ഥ)
ഥ ).P(𝑪
Multiplicative Law:
Independent events:
Let A and B are two independent events , then the
probability of both the events is the product of their
individual probabilities.
P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B)
Similarly , A, B, and C are three independent events
then,
P(A and B and C) = P(A∩B∩C) = P(A).P(B).P(C)
Contd….
Dependent Events:
Let two events A and B be dependent, then the
probability of getting events A and B given by,
P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B/A)
= P(B) P(A/B)
Similarly, A ,B and C are three dependent events, then
P( A and B and C) =P(A∩B∩C)=P(A∩B) P(C/ A∩B)
=P(A)P(B/A)P(C/A∩B)
Numerical Example
Question: The result after conducting an examination in two papers A
and B , probability that a candidate will pass in paper A is 0.6, in paper
B is 0.50 and in both papers is 0.30. Find the probability that he/she will
pass in paper A or B.
Solution:
Let, A= candidate will pass in the paper A.
B= Candidate will pass in the paper B.
P(A) = 0.6 , P (B) = 0.50 , P(A and B) = 0.30
We know,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A and B)
= 0.6 + 0.5 – 0.3
= 0.8

Hence, probability that he/she will pass in paper A or B

is 0.8 i.e 80%
Numerical Example
The probability that man will alive 25 years is 3/5 and the probability
that his wife will be alive 25 years is 2/3. Find the probability that
➢Both will be alive.
➢Only man will be alive
➢Only wife will be alive
➢At least one will be alive
➢None will be alive, 25 years hence
➢Only one of them will be alive 25 years hence.
Solution
Let, A = man will be alive 25 years hence
B= wife (woman) will be alive 25 years hence
P(A)= 3/5 P(B) = 2/3
P(𝐴)ҧ = 1- P(A) = 1-3/5 = 2/5,
ത = 1- P(B) = 1-2/3 =1/3
P(𝐵)
a) The probability that both will alive is
3 2 2
P( A and B) = P(A)P(B) = × =
5 3 5
b) The probability that only the man will be alive is
3 1 1
ത ത
P( A and 𝐵) = P(A) P(𝐵) = × =
5 3 5
c) The probability that only the wife will be alive is
2 2 4
ҧ ҧ
P(𝐴 and B) = P(𝐴)P(B) = = × =
5 3 15
d) The probability that at least one will be alive
P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A and B)
3 2 2 9+10−6 13
= + − = =
5 3 5 15 15
OR
P(at least one of them) = 1- P(none of them)
= 1- P(𝐴ҧ ) P(𝐵ത )
2 1 2 15−2 13
= 1- × = 1 − = =
5 3 15 15 15
Contd..
e) The probability that none of them will be alive is
2 1 2
ҧ ഥ ҧ ത
P(𝐴 and 𝐵 ) = P(𝐴).P(𝐵 ) = × =
5 3 15
f) The probability that only one of them will be alive
P (only one of them will alive) = P ( either man or woman only)
= P(man only ) + P( woman only)
= 1/5 + 4/15 =7/15.
Numerical Example
There are two machines in a factory. The probability of
machine X working 24 hours without failure is 0.8 and the
probability of machine Y working 24 hours without failure
is 0.6. Find the probability that
• Both machines will work for 24 hours without failure.
• Neither will work for 24 hours without failure
• Only machine Y will work for 24 hours without failure
• Only one machine will work for 24 hours without failure
• At least one for the machine will work for 24 hours.
• At most one machine will work for 24 hours without
failure.
Solution
Let A = the machine X works without failure
B= the machine Y works without failure
Now, P (A) =0.8 , P(B) = 0.6

P(𝐴ҧ ) = 1- P(A) = 1- 0.8= 0.2

ത = 1- P(B) = 1-0.6 =0.4

P (𝐵)
Contd…
a)The probability that both machine will work for 24
hours without failure is
P(A and B) = P(A).P(B)
(∵ A and B are independent)
= 0.8×0.6 =0.48
b)The probability that neither will work for 24 hours
without failure is
ҧ 𝐵)
P(𝐴and ҧ
ത =P(𝐴).P( ത = 0.2×0.4 =0.08
𝐵)
c)The probability that only machine Y will work for 24
hours without failure is
P(𝐴ҧ and B) = P(𝐴ҧ ).P(B) = 0.2× 0.6 =0.12
Contd..
d)The probability that only one machine will work for 24
hours without failure is
P(𝐴ҧ and B or A and 𝐵)
ത = P(𝐴ҧ and B) + P(A and 𝐵) ത
= P(𝐴ҧ ).P(B)+ P(A).P(𝐵)ത
= 0.2× 0.6 + 0.8 × 0.4
= 0.12 + 0.32
= 0.44
e)The probability that at least one for the machine will work
for 24 hours without failure is
P(at least one machine will work for 24 hours)
= P(A or B) = 1- P(none of the machine will work)
ҧ 𝐵)
= 1- P(𝐴).P( ത
= 1- 0.2×0.4 = 1 – 0.08 = 0.92
Contd…..
f)The probability that at most one machine will work for 24
hours without failure is
ҧ 𝐵ത or 𝐴ҧ and B or A and 𝐵)
P(𝐴and ҧ 𝐵)
ത = P(𝐴and ത +𝑃(𝐴ҧ and B)
ത
+ P (A and 𝐵)
ҧ 𝐵)
= P(𝐴).P( ത + P(𝐴ҧ ).P(B)+ P(A).P(𝐵)ത
= 0.2×0.4 + 0.2×0.6 + 0.8×0.4
= 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.32
= 0.52
Odds ratio: ( m:n , m to n )
𝑚
P(m) = ( Favour)
𝑚+𝑛

𝑛
P(n) = (Against)
𝑚+𝑛
 Numerical Example
It is 8:5 against a husband who is now 55 years old living
till he is 75 and 4:3 against his wife who is now is 48 years
living till he she is 68. Find the probability that
➢The couple will be alive 20 years hence.
➢At least one of them will be alive 20 years hence.
Solution:
Let, A = husband who is now 55 years old living till he is
75
B = wife who is now 48 years living till she is 68.
Contd………..
P(A)= 8:5 (against)
5 5
= =
8+5 13
5 8
P(𝐴ҧ ) = 1- P(A) = 1- =
13 13
P(B) = 4:3 (against)
3 3
= =
4+3 7
3 4
ത
P (𝐵) = 1- P(B) = 1- =
7 7
Contd…..
a)The probability that the couple will alive 20 years hence is
P(A and B) = P(A).P(B)
5 3 15
= × =
13 7 91
b)The probability that at least one of them will alive 20
years hence is
P( at least one of them will alive 20 years hence)
= 1- P( none of them will alive 20 years hence)
ҧ 𝐵)
= 1- P(𝐴).P( ത
8 4
= 1- ×
13 7
32 59
= 1- =
91 91
Numerical Example
A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, and C whose
chances of solving it are 3:4:5 respectively. Find the probability that
➢The problem will be solved
➢None of them will solve the problem.
Solution:
Let, A= Student A will solve the problem
B= student B will solve the problem
C = student C will solve the problem.
Contd..
3 3 1 1 3
P(A)= = = ҧ
P(𝐴 ) = 1- P(A) =1 - =
3+4+5 12 4 4 4
4 1 1 2
P(B) = = P(𝐵ത ) = 1- P(B) = 1 - =
12 3 3 3
5 5 7
P( C) = P(𝐶ҧ ) = 1 – P(C) = 1- =
12 12 12
a)The probability that problem will be solved.
P(problem will be solved)
= P(at least one of them will solve the problem)
= 1 – P(none of them will solve the problem)
ҧ 𝐵).
= 1 - P(𝐴).P( ത P(𝐶)ҧ
3 2 7
=1- × ×
4 3 12
7 17
=1- =
24 24
Contd.
b)P( none of them will solve the problem)
𝟑 𝟐 𝟕 𝟕
ഥ ഥ ഥ
= P(𝑨).P(𝑩). P(𝑪) = × × =
𝟒 𝟑 𝟏𝟐 𝟐𝟒

Example: A manager has two assistants and he bases

his decision on information supplied independently by
each of them. The probability that he makes a mistake
in his thinking is 0.005. The probability that any
assistant gives wrong decision is 0.3. Assuming the
mistakes made by the manager are independent of the
information given by the assistants , find the
probability that he reaches the a wrong decision.
Solution
Let A = the manager makes the mistake.
B= the first assistant makes the mistake.
C= the second assistant makes the mistake.
Now, P (A) =0.005 , P(B) = 0.3 , P(C) = 0.3
P(𝐴ҧ ) = 1- P(A) = 1- 0.005= 0.995
ത = 1- P(B) = 1-0.3 = 0.7
P (𝐵)
P(𝐶)ҧ = 1 – P(C) = 1- 0.3 = 0.7
Contd…
Probability of reaching correct decision
= P (none of them are incorrect)
= P (𝐴ഥ and 𝐵ത and 𝐶ҧ )
(∵ A , B and C are independent)

= P(𝐴)ҧ . P(𝐵).P(
ത 𝐶)ҧ
= 0.995× 0.7 × 0.7
= 0.4876
Probability of reaching wrong decision
= P ( at least one of them is incorrect)
= 1- P( none of them are incorrect)
=1- 0.4876 =0.5124
Stay Home and Stay Safe
Thank You
 Unit – I
Probability
st
MBS 1 Semester
Butwal Multiple Campus
Question: There are three sections A, B and C. Section A consists 2 boys
and 2 girls section B consists 1 boy and 3 girls and section C consists 3 boys
and 1 girl. A student is selected randomly from each section. Find the
probability of selecting a boy and two girls.
Solution: Sec A Sec B Sec C
One boy and two girls can be 2 Boys 1 Boy 3 Boys
2 Girls 3 Girls 1 Girl
Selected from the following ways
Ways Sec A Sec B Sec C
I B G G
II G B G
P(B) = 2/4 P(B) = 1/4 P(B) = 3/4
P(G) = 2/4 P(G) = 3/4 P(G) = 1/4
III G G B
𝟐 𝟑 𝟏 𝟑 𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟑 𝟗
P(I) = × × = , 𝐏 𝐈𝐈 = × × = , P(III)= × × =
𝟒 𝟒 𝟒 𝟑𝟐 𝟒 𝟒 𝟒 𝟑𝟐 𝟒 𝟒 𝟒 𝟑𝟐
Contd..
Required probability of selecting 2 girls and 1 boy
P( I or II or III ) = P(I) + P(II) + P(III)
3 1 9
= + +
32 32 32
𝟏𝟑
=
𝟑𝟐
Numerical Example:
In a MBS first year class, there sections, each including 20 students. In
first section there are 10 boys and 10 girls, in second section, there are
15 boys and 5 girls and in the third section, there are 12 boys and 8
girls. Five students are selected from each group from a committee of 15
students. What is the probability that all 15 students selected are girls?
Solution: Here, Sec A Sec B Sec C
10 Boys 15 Boys 12 Boys

10 Girls 5 Girls 8 Girls

Selection of 5 girls = 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟓 𝑪𝟓 𝟖𝑪𝟓
Total possible cases = 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓
Probability selecting Five girls from each section
𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟓 𝑪𝟓 𝟖 𝑪𝟓
P(A) = P(B) = P(C) =
𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓
The probability that all 15 students selected are girls = P(A and B and C)
𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟓 𝑪𝟓 𝟖 𝑪𝟓 252 1 56
= P(A). P(B).P(C) = × × = × ×
𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟓 15504 15504 15504

= 3.78 × 𝟏𝟎−𝟗 = 0.00000000378

Conditional Probability:
Conditional probability of A given that B ( ie B has already occurred)
P(A and B)
P(A/B) = ; P(B) ≠0 P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(B) P(A/B)
P(B) P(A and B)
P(A/B) = P(B)
Similarly,
Conditional probability of B given that A ( ie A has already occurred)
P(A and B)
P(B/A) = ; P(A) ≠0 P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B/A)
P(A) P(A and B)
P(B/A) = P(A)
Joint and Marginal Probabilities:
Enjoy shopping
Example : for clothing Yes No Total
Gender

Male a b a+b
P( Male) = (a+b)/N Female c d c+d
Total a+c b+d N= a+b+c+d
P( Enjoy shopping for clothing) = (a+c)/N
P(Female and Enjoy shopping) = c/N
If a selected person is male , what is the probability that he enjoys shopping
for clothing,
𝑃 ( 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸𝑛𝑗𝑜𝑦𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 )
P(Enjoys shopping for clothing/ male) =
𝑃(𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒)
OR, P(Enjoys shopping for clothing/ male) = a/ (a+b)
Numerical Example:
The records of 300 teachers in TU are given below
Age Master’s M. Phil Ph. D. Total
If a teacher is selected at (Years) Degree Degree Degree
random, find the probability that
Under 35 50 20 5 75
35 to 45 60 30 10 100
Over 45 80 25 20 125

i) He/she has PhD degree Total 190 75 35 300

ii) He /she has Master’s degree and over 45.

iii) He/she is under 35 or PhD.
iv) He/she has M.Phil degree given that he is over 45 years.
v) He/she is under 35 years given that he/she has only Master’s degree.
Solution:
Age (Years) Master’s Degree M. Phil Degree Ph. D. Degree Total

Under 35 50 20 5 75
35 to 45 60 30 10 100
Over 45 80 25 20 125
Total 190 75 35 300
𝟑𝟓 𝟕
i) P(PhD degree) = =
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟔𝟎
𝟖𝟎 𝟒
ii) P(Master’s Degree and Over 45) = =
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟓
iii) P(Under 35 or PhD) = P( Under 35) + P(PhD) – P(Under 35 and PhD)
𝟕𝟓 𝟑𝟓 𝟓
= + -
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟎𝟎
105 𝟕
= =
300 𝟐𝟎
 Age (Years) Master’s Degree M. Phil Degree Ph. D. Degree Total

Under 35 50 20 5 75
35 to 45 60 30 10 100
Over 45 80 25 20 125
Total 190 75 35 300
iv) Probability of he/she has M.Phil degree given that he is over 45 years,
𝐏( 𝐌.𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝟒𝟓 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬)
P(M.Phil degree/over 45 years) =
𝐏(𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝟒𝟓 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬)
P(M.Phil degree/over 45 )=
25 𝟏 𝟐𝟓 𝟏
= = =
𝟏𝟐𝟓 𝟓
125 𝟓
v) Probability of he/she under 35 given that he has only masters degree,
𝐏( 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝟑𝟓 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫′𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞)
P(Under 35/Masters degree) =
𝐏(𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫′𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞)
50 𝟓
= = 𝟓𝟎
190 𝟏𝟗 P(Under 35/Masters degree) = 𝟏𝟗𝟎
𝟓
= 𝟏𝟗
Numerical Example:
In an examination of TU , 25% of the students have failed in Statistics, 15%
of the students have filed in Economics an 10 % have failed in both Statistics
and Economics. A student is selected at random.
i) What is the probability that the student has failed in Statistics if it is
known that he has failed in Economics?
ii) What is the probability that the student has failed in Economics if it is
known that he has failed in Statistics?
iii) What is the probability that the student has failed either in statistics or
in economics?
Solution:
Let, S= Student failed in Statistics
E = Student failed in Economics
P( S) = 25% = 0.25 , P(E) = 15% =0.15 and P(S and E) = 10% =0.1
Contd..
i) The probability that the student has failed in statistics if it is known
that he has failed in Economics,
𝐏(𝐒 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄) 𝟎.𝟏𝟎
P(S/E) = = =0.67
𝐏(𝐄) 𝟎.𝟏𝟓
ii) The probability that the student has failed in Economics if it is
known that he has failed in Statistics,
𝐏(𝐒 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄) 𝟎.𝟏𝟎
P(E/S) = = = 0.4
𝐏(𝐒) 𝟎.𝟐𝟓
iii) The probability that the student has failed either in Statistics or in
Economics,
P(S or E ) = P(S) + P(E) - P(S and E)
= 0.25 + 0.15 – 0.10 = 0.30
Numerical Example
A bag contains 7 white, 6 red and 5 black balls . From this bag three balls are
drawn in succession. Find the probability that they are drawn in the order of
white, red and black if each ball is not replaced.
Solution:
Total number of balls = 7 white + 6 red + 5 blacks = 18
Probability of white ball, P(W) = 7/18
Probability of one red ball, P(R/W) = 6/18-1 =6/17
Probability of black ball, P(B/R and W) = 5/17-1 = 5/16
∴P( W and R and B) =P(W∩ 𝐑 ∩ 𝐁) = P(W).P(R/W).P(B/W 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑)
7 6 5
= × ×
18 17 16

210 35
= =
4896 816
Numerical Example:
There are three machines A, B, and C producing 1000, 2000, and 3000
articles per hours respectively. These machines are known to be
producing 10, 40 and 90 defective items respectively. One article is
selected at random from an hour production of three machines and
found to be defective. What is the probability that the defective article
is produced from (i) machine A (ii) machine B (iii) machine C?
Solution:
Let, A= production of articles from machine A
B = production of articles from machine B
C = production of articles from machine C
D = Production of defective articles
 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏 𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏
P(A) = = = , P(B) = = , P(C) = =
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎+𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎+𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟔𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟔 𝟔𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟑 𝟔𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟐
P(D/A) =10/1000 = 0.01 , P(D/B) = 40/2000 =0.02, P(D/C) =90/3000 =0.03

P(D/A)= 0.01 𝟏
P(A)P(D/A) = 𝟔 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟔 = P(A and D)

P(D/B)= 0.02 𝟏
P(B)P(D/B) = 𝟑 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟔 = P(B and D)

𝟏
P(C)P(D/C) = 𝟐 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓 = P(C and D)

𝐏(𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟔

Total P(D) = 0.0232
i) P(A/D) = = = 0.0715
𝐏(𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐
𝐏(𝐂 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟏𝟓
𝐏(𝐁 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟔 P(C/D) = = = 0.6465
ii) P(B/D) = = = 0.2844 𝐏(𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐
𝐏(𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐
Numerical Example:
In a factory, machine X produces 30% of items, machine Y produces
25% and rest produces by machine Z per day. One percent of the items
of machine X is defective while machine Y and machine Z produce
defective 3% and 2% respectively. An item drawn at random from a
day’s items is non- defective what is the probability that it was
produced by machine X?
Solution:
Let, A= production of items from machine X
B = production of items from machine Y
C = production of items from machine Z
N = Production of non-defective items
P(A) = 30% =0.3, P(B) =25% =0.25 , P(C) = 45% = 0.45
P(N/A) =(100-1)%=0.99, P(N/B) = (100-3)%=0.97, P(N/C) = (100-2)% = 0.98

P(N/A)= 0.99
P(A)P(N/A) = 0.3× 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟗𝟕 = P(A and N)

P(B)P(N/B) = 0.25× 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟒𝟐𝟓

P(N/B)= 0.97 = P(B and N)

= P(C and N)
P(C)P(N/C) = 0.45× 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟏

Total P(N) = 0.9805

𝐏(𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍) 𝟎.𝟐𝟗𝟕

i) P(A/N) = = = 0. 3029
𝐏(𝐍) 𝟎.𝟗𝟖𝟎𝟓
Numerical Example:
An advertising executive is studying television viewing habits of
married men and women during prime time hours. On the basis of past
viewing records the executive has determined that during prime time,
husbands are watching television 60% of the time, when husband is
watching television ,40% of the time the wife is also watching. When
the husband is not watching television ,30% of the time the wife is
watching television. Find the probability that
a) The wife is watching television in prime time.
b) If the wife is watching television, the husband is also watching the
television.
Solution:
Let, H= Husband watching television during prime- time
ഥ = Husband not watching television during prime time
𝐇
W = Wife watching television during prime time
 P(H) = 60% =0.6, ഥ ) =40% =0.4
P(𝐇
P(W/H) =40% = 0.4, P(𝐖/ 𝐇ഥ ) = 30% = 0.3

P(W/H)= 0.4
P(H)P(W/H) = 0.6× 𝟎. 𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟒 = P(H and W)

ഥ and W)
= P(𝐇
ഥ ) = 0.4× 𝟎. 𝟑 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐
ഥ )P(W/ 𝐇
P(𝐇

i) P(W) =0.36 Total P(W) = 0.36

𝐏(𝐇 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖) 𝟎.𝟐𝟒
ii) P(H/W) = = = 0. 67
𝐏(𝐖) 𝟎.𝟑𝟔
Numerical Example.
A factory has 3 units A, B and C. A produces 25% of its products, unit B
produces 25% and C produces 50%. If the percentage of defective items
produced by three units A, B and C are 1%, 2% and 3% respectively and
an item is selected randomly from the total production of the factory is
found to be defective. What is the probability that it is produced by the
unit C?
Solution:
Let, A= production of articles from factory A
B = production of articles from factory B
C = production of articles from factory C
D = Production of defective articles
P(A) = 25%=0.25, P(B) =25%=0.25, P(C) = 50%=0.5
P(D/A) = 1% = 0.01 , P(D/B) = 2% =0.02, P(D/C) = 3% =0.03

P(D/A)= 0.01
P(A)P(D/A) = 0.25× 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟓 = P(A and D)

P(D/B)= 0.02
P(B)P(D/B) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓
= P(B and D)

= P(C and D)
P(C)P(D/C) = 0.5× 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓

Total P(D) = 0.0225

𝐏(𝐂 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟏𝟓
P(C/D) = = = 0.667
𝐏(𝐃) 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟓
Numerical Example:
The chances of X,Y ,Z becoming manager of a certain company are 4:2:3. The
probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduce if X, Y, Z becomes managers
are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been introduced, what
is the probability that X is appointed as the manager?
Solution:
Let X = The person X will become a manager
Y = The person Y will become a manager
Z = The person will become a manager
B = Introduce Bonus for staffs
P(X) = 4/9 P(Y) =2/9 P(Z) = 3/9 =1`/3
P(B/X) =0.3 P(B/Y) = 0.5 P(B/Z) =0.8
P(X) = 4/9, P(Y) =2/9, P(Z) = 1/3
P(B/X) =0.3, P(B/Y) =0.5, P(B/Z) = 0.8

P(B/X)= 0.3
P(X)P(B/X) = 4/9× 𝟎. 𝟑 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟑 = P(X and B)

P(Y)P(B/Y) = 2/9× 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟐

P(B/Y)= 0.5 = P(Y and B)

= P(Z and B)
P(Z)P(B/Z) = 1/3× 𝟎. 𝟖 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟔𝟕

Total P(B) = 0.512

𝐏(𝐗 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁) 𝟎.𝟏𝟑𝟑

i) P(X/B) = = = 0.2597
𝐏(𝐁) 𝟎.𝟓𝟏𝟐