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The long-term variability in minimum and maximum temperature trends and

heat island of Lahore city, Pakistan

Research · August 2015

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Sci.Int.(Lahore),27(2),1321-1325,2015 ISSN 1013-5316; CODEN: SINTE 8 1321

THE LONG-TERM VARIABILITY IN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

TRENDS AND HEAT ISLAND OF LAHORE CITY, PAKISTAN
S. H. Sajjad1*, Rabia Batool1, S. M. Talha Qadri1, Safdar Ali Shirazi2,
Khadija Shakrullah3
1
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha – Pakistan
2
Department of Geography, University of the Punjab, 54000 Lahore, Pakistan
1
Department of Geography, Forman Christian College, A chartered University, Lahore – Pakistan
*For correspondence: [email protected] , Phone: +92 304 2611126
ABSTRACT: The second largest city of Pakistan is Lahore which has population of 10 million. The purpose of this research
work is to study the annual and seasonal trends of surface temperature of two stations of Lahore one located in center of the
city and another one at airport of Lahore about 10 km away from the first site. The temperature data of minimum and
maximum collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) was analysed by using linear regression. The results
show that at both stations minimum temperature is increasing more than maximum temperature. While maximum temperature
at both station is not increasing significantly. The highest increase in minimum temperature is measured in spring season.
Key word: urbanization, local climate, population change, PMD, Urban Heat Island

1. INTRODUCTION and increase in the urban population and the expansion of the
In recent decades, human activities have significantly altered yearly construction area in Beijing is measured [8]. Du et al.
and changed the ground cover all over the world such as (2007) highlighted that UHI effect made the regional annual
rapid urbanization, increasing environmental pollution and mean air temperature increased 0.072°C from 1961 to 2005,
deforestation [1]. The significant change on land surface is of which 0.047°C from 1991 to 2005, and the annual
rapid urbanization which is highly affecting the local climate maximum air temperature increased 0.162°C, of which
in special and global climate in general. So the urban areas’ 0.083°C from 1991 to 2005, all these indicating that the urban
effect on local climate is becoming an important issue as it expansion in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China from
cause urban heat island phenomenon in urban areas [2]. 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal [9].
Presently, this issue is attracting significant attention [3] of The observational studies based on direct measurements of
researcher, planners and policy makers toward sustainable climatic variables indicate that during calm and clear nights,
urban habitat. Many of the world cities are considered as the UHI is prominent and its intensity can exhibit diurnal and
major anthropogenic sources of heat and pollution through seasonal cycles e.g. [10, 11, 12].
different sources, utilization of energy and performance of In Pakistan, Lahore is the second largest city. It is the city of
economic activities. In addition, in most of the city centers, almost 8 millions of population. Most of the city is condense
major part of the buildings, roads and other infrastructure is in respect of population and is spread over an area of 1,772
covered by asphalt and concrete material. These dry and km2. The huge population of the city has almost greater
water-proof surfaces with less albedos and higher heat effects on its local climate. This paper describes the long term
absorption capacities store incoming radiation as sensible surface urban heat island (UHI) effect of Lahore. In section 2
heat better than the surrounding countryside [4]. Many of the of the paper data and methodology, in section 3 results and
world cities are highly vulnerable to urban climate change discussion and in section 4, conclusion is given.
and urban heat island (UHI) effect. A “heat island” is
characteristics of whole or part of the city which is 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY
comparatively warmer than its nearby surrounding rural area. 2.1 Case study area
UHI varies from season to season and day to day. The urban For this study, Lahore is selected as the case study area. It is
areas’ temperature can be 2–6°C higher in hot seasons [5] and located on eastern side of Punjab province with geographical
can be 13°C higher in winter hotter than the surrounding coordinates of 31°32′59″N and 74°20′37″E. The area has flat
countryside. The phenomenon of UHI can’t be confused with surface and surrounded by fertile alluvial plains. In 1972, the
global warming as it has separate mechanics of formation and city has a population of 2.17 million which has reached to
effects on local scales and scientists call it the “urban heat 9.75 million in 2014 with an increase of 350 per cent in four
island effect.” decades. The demand of residential sites had been increasing
Various studies show the effect of local areas’ effect on local with increasing urban areas’ population. In 1972, land surface
temperature trends. World Meteorological Organization area covered by built-up area of Lahore city was just 103.42
presented that the mean annual temperature of Sao Paolo has km2 which has increased to 1772.53 km2 in 2012 with an
been increased to about 2°C [6]. Another study about mean increase of 1613 per cent with in four decades (Fig. 1). The
annual mean minimum temperature of South Korea increasing population and changing land-cover of Lahore has
highlights that it has increased due to rapid urbanization in adverse effects on local climate. Growing demand of the
major part of the country. Chung et al. elaborated that as buildings for residential and administrative purposes has
compare to all the cities of South Korea, the highest increase expanded the city towards all sides and mainly toward south
in population is seen in Seoul, whereas daily minimum east of the city [13].
temperature increased by 0.7°C higher than the nearby
surrounding rural sites [7]. On other hand, strong positive
correlation between UHI intensity for minimum temperature

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1322 ISSN 1013-5316; CODEN: SINTE 8 Sci.Int.(Lahore),27(2),1321-1325,2015
study how the local temperature is being affected by urban
area.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Seasonal Changes
In figure 2, seasonal changes in minimum and maximum
temperature of Lahore (urban) station and Lahore (rural)
station are given. The temperature for all the seasons is given
in anomalies because the temperature anomalies can be
compared on a month by moth or season by season basis, in a
way in which absolute numbers can’t. The regressed results
of each season are given in Table 1 and Table 2 shows the net
Figure 1: Populaion and urbanized surface area of Lahore since
1972 to 2014. change in minimum and maximum temperature over 40
years. At both stations, minimum and maximum temperature
had been increasing at different rate except winter
temperature at Lahore airport. It is highly important to note
that minimum temperature increased more at urban station
than rural site located at airport. On the other hand, over
period of 40 years, there is not significant change in
maximum temperature at the both stations.
In Table 1, it can be seen that the highest growth observed in
temperature at urban station over the studied period is
measured winter and spring where it increased 3.24°C during
the both seasons and the lowest is observed during summer
where it is computed only 0.98°C during 40 years. On other
hand, at Lahore airport, the highest increase in minimum
Figure 2: Monthly average minimum and maximum temperature is observed in spring season where it is
temperature of Lahore.
calculated 1.4°C while at this station minimum temperature
Lahore is located in area having semi-arid type of climate. In
during winter has shown decreasing trends.
summer (June, July, August), average temperature exceeds to
40 °C and in winter it reaches to freezing point with dense Table 1: dTmin and dTmax over the period of 40 years (1972-2011)
fog conditions (Fig. 2). Most of the precipitation is received at Lahore urban station and Lahore airport station.
during monsoon season that starts in late June and ends up to dTmin/4 decades dTmax/4 decades
September. Period
2.2 Data type and method of data analysis Lahore (PBO) Lahore (AP) Lahore (PBO) Lahore (AP)
For this study, mean average monthly data of maximum and Annual 2.68 0.64 -0.404 0.928
minimum temperature data of two observatories located in Winter 3.248 -0.064 -0.364 0.736
Lahore was collected from Pakistan Meteorological
Spring 3.24 1.4 1.072 2.544
Department of Pakistan. One observational site is located at
Shadman and the other one is located at Lahore Airport. The Summer 0.98 0.408 -1.248 -0.016
former is highly urbanized area with urban surface structure Autumn 3.184 0.824 -1.084 0.448
and the later is located at airport in the periphery of Lahore
city and is considered as rural station with rural type of Table 2: Regression results of temperature of Lahore urban
surface structure. The distance between the two stations is station and Lahore airport during 1972 to 2011.
about 10 kilometer. The mean monthly minimum and Minimum temperature Maximum temperature
Period
maximum temperatures data of these two stations for the Lahore (PBO) Lahore (AP) Lahore (PBO) Lahore (AP)
period of 1972 to 2011 is analysed by using simple regression y = 0.067 y = 0.016 y = -0.0101 y = 0.0232
method in which temperature is used as dependent variable Annual
R2 = 0.73 R2 = 0.10 R2 = 0.0372 R2 = 0.18
while the time period is used as an independent variable. By y = 0.0812 y = -0.0016 y = -0.0091 y = 0.0184
Winter
using this technique, the change in minimum (dTmin) and R2 = 0.69 R2 = 0.0005 R2 = 0.014 R2 = 0.07
maximum dTmax temperature of Lahore in computed. The y = 0.081 y = 0.035 y = 0.0268 y = 0.0636
Spring
R2 = 0.43 R2 = 0.1189 R2 = 0.0443 R2 = 0.19
UHI is considered as nonlinear function of population that is
y = 0.0245 y = 0.0102 y = -0.0312 y = -0.0004
measured as: Summer
R2 = 0.2121 R2 = 0.0598 R2 = 0.1503 R2 = 3E-05
ΔTu-r = a(pop)b (1) y = 0.0796 y = 0.0206 y = -0.0271 y = 0.0112
where ΔTu-r is the yearly mean temperature difference (°C) Autumn
R2 = 0.6996 R2 = 0.0814 R2 = 0.1627 R2 = 0.04
between urban station and Lahore Airport, pop is the urban
population and a and b are the constants. For long term
measurement of UHI at Lahore, we have used this formula to

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Sci.Int.(Lahore),27(2),1321-1325,2015 ISSN 1013-5316; CODEN: SINTE 8 1323

Figure 3: Representation of dTmin and dTmax of Lahore urban station (given in red solid line) and Lahore airport (blue solid line)
for the period of 1972 to 2011.

3.
2 Annual changes escalating as the population had been increasing. The
Figure 3 intricate the analysis of minimum and maximum noteworthy propensity of raise in minimum temperature is
temperature of the both stations. The results of the moving glimpse after 1990s in which the urban population amplified
trends show the higher increasing tendency in temperature at to 5 million which was just 0.8 million in early 1950s.
urban area whereas this change is observed higher after 1998, Figure 5 highlights the long-term UHI of Lahore by
the warmest year of the history. Since 1972 to 1997, there is comparing the temperature of two stations of Lahore (urban –
less difference in temperature of the two stations while it had rural) where urban site is at Shadman and rural site is at
been increasing faster after 1998 especially at urban station. Lahore airport. It is observed that difference in minimum and
Figure 4 is elaborating the variability in mean annual maximum temperature between urban and rural area is
minimum and maximum temperature of both urban and rural mounting due to effect of urban heat island phenomenon.
type stations. The figure highlight that the after 1995, Figure 6 explains the rapid land-use change and population
minimum temperature started to increase faster as it was the growth and its relationship with changing temperature. As the
era of speedily urban development of Lahore city. vegetation cover is transformed into built-up area, it has
Figure 5 is highlighting the effect of urbanization in respect higher effect on minimum temperature than maximum
of increasing population. There is observed an analogous temperature. It also highlights that urban sprawl in term of
proportion in increase of minimum temperature of urban increasing built-up area and population, is affecting minimum
station and population of Lahore city throughout the temperature more than maximum temperature.
deliberated period. The minimum temperature had been

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1324 ISSN 1013-5316; CODEN: SINTE 8 Sci.Int.(Lahore),27(2),1321-1325,2015

Figure 4: The mean maximum temperature variations of Lahore at Lahore Airport and Shadman observatories.

Figure 5: Long term difference in urban and rural site minimum and maximum temperature trends to represent long term UHI.

Temperature vs Built-up area Temperature vs Population

(a) (a)
3 3

2 2
Temperature (C)
Temperature (C)

1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2
y = 0.002x - 0.8839 y = 0.3348x - 1.2472
R² = 0.7615 R² = 0.7085
-3 -3
50 250 450 650 850 1050 1250 1450 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Built-up area in Sq.Km Population (million)

(b) (b)
3 3

2 2
Temperature (C)
Temperature (C)

1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2
y = -0.0002x + 0.1221 y = -0.0387x + 0.1693
R² = 0.0214 R² = 0.0214
-3 -3
50 250 450 650 850 1050 1250 1450 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Built-up area in Sq.Km Population (million)

Figure 6: In left panel is given the change in minimum (a) and maximum (b) temperature as a function of built-up area of Lahore
from 1972 to 2010 and in right panel is given the change in minimum (a) and maximum (b) temperature as a function of built-up
area of Lahore from 1972 to 2010.

4. CONCLUSION temperature. The maximum temperature is not increasing

The awareness about the urban environment is being one of significantly at both stations. So the mean maximum
the striking issues not only for the developed world but temperature has not significant effect throughout the
especially for the developing countries. Pakistan is the calculated period except from 1974 to 1993.
country with 180 millions of population and where 72 million
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