KWARA STATE UNIVERSITY-MALETE

Department of Statistics and Mathematical Sciences,

College of Pure and Applied Sciences,
P.M.B. 1530, Ilorin, Kwara state, Nigeria

STA 201-Statistical Methods in Biological Sciences I

Term: Harmattan 2016/2017 Session

Text: Applied Statistical Methods in Agriculture, Health and Life Sciences

by Bayo Lawal: Springer, 2014.

 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

The concept of probability is relevant to experiments that have some uncertain outcomes.
These are the situations in which, despite every effort to maintain fixed conditions, some
variation in the result during repeated trials of the experiment is unavoidable. As used in
here, the term “experiment” is not restricted to laboratory experiments but includes any
activity that results in the collection of data pertaining to phenomena that exhibit
variation. The domain of probability encompasses all phenomena for which outcomes
cannot be exactly predicted in advance.

An experiment is any process or action that leads to a well defined uncertain result called
outcomes. Example includes;

(i). Tossing a coin

(ii). Rolling a die
(iii). Gender of an unborn child
(iv). Planting a seed
(v). Blood group of individuals, etc.

Though, in the above examples, each experimental outcome is unpredictable, we can

describe the collection of all possible outcomes.

Definitions

 Random (Probability) Experiment: This is an experiment whose outcome is

determine by chance and differs at each time the experiment is conducted under
the same condition. A Random experiment satisfy the following conditions;
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 (i). The experiment can be repeated under the same condition.
(ii). The result is unknown in advance.
(iii). All possible outcomes of the experiment can be predicted.
However, if the outcome of an experiment is known in advance, then it is termed
deterministic experiment.
 Outcome: An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
 Sample space ( ): A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment. E.g.
Experiment Sample space
Toss a coin Head (H), Tail (T)
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Choosing a correct answer from a list Correct, Wrong
Head-Head (HH), Head-Tail (HT),
Tossing two coins
Tail-Head (TH), Tail-Tail (TT).

 Sample point: Each item or unit in the sample space is called sample point.

Exercise

Determine the following:

(i). Sample space for the gender of three children in a family.

(ii). Sample space when two dice are rolled simultaneously.
(iii). Sum of the sample space in (ii) above.

Probability of an Event

Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring.

Many people are familiar with probability from observing or playing games of chance,
such as card games, slot machines, or lotteries. In addition to being used in games of
chance, probability theory is used in the fields of insurance, investments, and weather
forecasting and in various other areas.

Probability of an Event is the proportion of times an event occurs. Event A for instance is
expected to occur when the experiment is repeated under identical conditions and is
denoted as

( )
( )=
( )

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i.e. probability of an event equals the number of outcome in the event divided by total
number of outcomes in the sample.

For example, in the experiment of tossing a coin above, the probability of obtaining a
head (H) is denoted and obtains as;
1
( )=
2
AXIOMS/PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY

1. 0 ≤ ( ) ≤ 1. Where ( ) = 0 implies impossibility and ( ) = 1 implies

certainty.
2. ( ) = 1
3. Given any sequence of mutually exclusive events , , … , , then

= ( )+ ( ) + ⋯+ ( )

= ( )

It is possible to combine two or more events for a particular experiment. Hence, the
following relations can be obtained.

(i). Union of Events (or): The union of events is the event that consists of all
outcomes in all the events. Given events , , … , , the union of the events is
∪ ∪ …∪ which is read as … .
(ii). Intersection of Events (and): This is the events that consist of all outcomes
common to all the events. i.e. Given events , , … , , the intersection of the
events is
∩ ∩ …∩ which is read as … .
(iii). Complement of an Event: Given an event , the complement of denoted by
is the set of all outcomes in the sample space , that are not contained in .
(iv). Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more events are said to be mutually
exclusive if their interaction is a disjoint set. In other words, they cannot occur
together simultaneously. i.e. two events are said to be mutually
exclusive if ∩ = ∅.

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(v). Exhaustive Events: The events , , … , are said to be exhaustive if they
cover all possible outcomes of the experiment. i.e. ∪ ∪ …∪ = . Hence
( ∪ ∪ …∪ )∑ ( ) = ( ) = 1.

Exercise

i. Refer to the sample space of gender of three children in a family. What is the
probability of obtaining:
a. Two males
b. At least a female
c. Exactly two males
d. No females.
ii. Refer to the sum of space when two dice are rolled simultaneously. What is the
probability of obtaining:
a. Even numbers

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 b. Odd numbers
c. Prime numbers
d. Numbers divisible by 3
e. Numbers less than 2.

LAWS OF PROBABILITY

 The Addition Law of Probability

For any two events A and B, the probability that either A or B or both will occur, denoted
by ( ) is defined as: ( ) = ( )+ ( )− ( ) i.e.

( ∪ ) = ( )+ ( )− ( ∩ )

The Venn diagram below displays this concept for two events A and B.

However, if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then the definition in becomes,

( ) = ( )+ ( )

Since in this case, ( ) = 0.

Example:

If 30% of Nigerians are obese (A) and that 4% of Nigerians suffer from diabetes (B). 2%
are both obese and suffer from diabetes. What is the probability that a randomly selected
person is obese or suffers from diabetes?

Here, ( ) = 0.3, ( ) = 0.04 ( ) = 0.02.

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Then,

( )= ( )+ ( )− ( )

= 0.3 + 0.04 − 0.02 = 0.32

Exercise

(i). A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a weekend
day.
(ii). In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse
or a male.
 Multiplication Law of Probability

When two events are independent i.e. the occurrence of one events does not affect the
chance of occurrence of the second event, then the probability of both occurring is

( ) = ( ) × ( ) i.e.

( ∩ ) = ( )× ( )

However, if A and B are dependent, the definition becomes

( ) = ( )× ( | )

Where ( | ) is read as probability of event B occurring given that event A has

occurred.
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Example

2.

Exercise

(i). A poll found that 46% of KWASU Lecturers say they suffer great stress at least
once a week. If three people are selected at random, find the probability that all
three will say that they suffer great stress at least once a week.
(ii). An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and
its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted.
Find the probability of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
(iii). At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries reported in 2003,
16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at random two
burglaries to further investigate, find the probability that both will have occurred
in 2004.
 Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A was defined as the

probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. i.e.

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 ( )
( | )=
( )

( ∩ )
=
( )

Example

2.

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Exercise

 Marginal Probability

The marginal probability of a subset of a collection of random variables is the probability

distribution of the variables contained in the subset. It gives the probabilities of various
values of the variables in the subset without reference to the values of the other variables.
Given the table below:

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The probabilities in (i) and (ii) mentioned above are called marginal probabilities. We can
also construct marginal probability tables with frequency data.

Consider the following data which relate to a group of 1000 randomly selected adults
who were asked if they are in favor of abortion or are against it.

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