MODULE 4

Trip Distribution: Gravity Models, Opportunity Models, Time Function Iteration Models.
Travel demand modeling: gravity model, opportunity models, Desire line diagram.
Modal split analysis. Problems on above

Contents
Trip Distribution ............................................................................................................................. 2
Synthetic Models ........................................................................................................................ 2
1. Gravity model ......................................................................................................................... 2
2. Tanner’s Model ...................................................................................................................... 3
3. Opportunity Model................................................................................................................. 4
3.1 Intervening Opportunities Model .......................................................................................... 4
3.2 Competing Opportunities Model .......................................................................................... 5
Modal Split...................................................................................................................................... 5
Factors affecting modal split (Modal Split Analysis) ..................................................................... 5
1.Characteristics of trip ............................................................................................................... 5
2. Household characteristics ....................................................................................................... 6
3. Zonal characteristics ............................................................................................................... 6
4. Network characteristics ........................................................................................................... 6
Modal Split in transportation planning process .............................................................................. 8
1. Trip-end modal split models/ Pre-distribution modal split .................................................. 8
2. Trip-interchange modal split models/ Post-Distribution.................................................... 10
Recent development in Modal Split Analysis ............................................................................... 11
1. Probit analysis .................................................................................................................... 11
2. Logit analysis. .................................................................................................................... 11

Note References:
Kadiyali L R, Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning Text Book
NPTEL Course Notes (https://nptel.ac.in/courses/105101087/downloads/Lec-7 and 8)
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TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Synthetic Models
In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying causes of
movement between places and relationships are established between trips and measures of
attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an important advantage that
they can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but also to synthesis the base-year
flows. The necessity of having to survey every individual cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated
and the cost of data collection is reduced.
1. Gravity model
One of the well-known synthetic models is the Gravity Model. Based in Newton’s concept of
gravity, the model as proposed by Voorhees assumes that the interchange of trips between zones
in an area is dependent upon the relative attraction between the zones and the spatial separation
between them as measured by an appropriate function of distance. This function of spatial
separation adjusts the relative attraction of each zone for the ability, desire or necessity of the trip
maker to overcome the spatial separation. Whereas the trip interchange is directly proportional to
the relative attraction between the zones, it is inversely proportional to the measure of spatial
separation.
A simple equation representing the above relationship is of the following form:

Where,
Ti-j = Trips between zones i and j
Pi = Trips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
dij = Distance between zone i and j, or the time or cost of traveling between
them
K = A constant, usually independent of i
n = An exponential constant, whose value is usually found to lie 1 & 3
k = Total number of zones
The following formulation was also used in earlier studies dispersing with the proportionality
constant:

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Where, Ti-j, Pi, Aj, di-k and n have the same meaning as given earlier.

In order to simplify the computation requirements of the model, the following formulation has
been frequently used;

Where,
Ti-j = Trips produced in Zone i and attracted to zone j
Pi = Trips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
Fi-j = Empirically derived travel time factor which expresses the average area-wide
effect of spatial separation on trip interchange between zones i and j
Ki-j = A specific zone-to-zone adjustment factor to allow for the incorporation of the
effect on travel patterns of defined social or economic linkages not otherwise accounted for in
the gravity model formulation
k = Total number of zones
m = Iteration number
p = Trip purpose

The above relationship can be used for determining the trip interchange for each trip
purpose and each mode of travel.

2. Tanner’s Model
Tanner has suggested that the inverse of nth power, 1/(di-j)n in the gravity model formula
cannot give valid estimates at both very small and very large distances. In this place he proposes
the function eλd/dn, where λ and n are constants. The new formula suggested by him is of the form:

Where,
t1-2 = Number of journey per day between the two places 1 and 2
m = A constant
P1 and P2 = Populations, or other measures of size of the two places

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d1-2 = Distance between places 1 and 2 or the time or cost of

traveling between them
C1 and C2 = Constants, one for each place, C1 being defined by

3. Opportunity Model
Opportunity models are based on the statistical theory of probability as the theoretical foundation.
The concept has been pioneered by Schneider and developed by subsequent studies.
The two well-known models are:
1. The intervening opportunities models;
2. The competing opportunities model.
The opportunity models can be represented by the general formula:
Tij = Oi P (Di)
Where,
Ti-j = Predicted number of trips from zone i to j.
Oi = Total number of trips originating in zone i.
P(Dj) = Calculated probability of a trip terminating in zone j.
Dj = Total trip destinations attracted to zone j.

3.1 Intervening Opportunities Model

In the intervening opportunities model, it is assumed that the trip interchange between and
origin and a destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating from the origin zone multiplied
by the probability that each trip will find and acceptable terminal at the destination. It is further
assumed that the probability that a destination will be acceptable is determined by two zonal
characteristics: the size of the destination and the order in which it is encountered as trips proceed
from the origin. The probability functions in above equation P(Dj), may then be expressed as the
difference between the probability that the trip origins at i will find a suitable terminal in one of
the destinations, ordered by closeness to i, up to and including j, and the probability that they will
find a suitable terminal in the destination up to but excluding j. The following equation represents
mathematically this concept:

Where,
Ti-j = Predicted number of trips from zone i to j
Qi = Total number of trips originating in zone i
L = Probability density of destination acceptability at the point of consideration

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A = Number of origins between i and j when arranged in order of closeness

B = Number of destinations between i and j when arranged in order of closeness
It may be noted that:
A = B + Dj

3.2 Competing Opportunities Model

In the competing opportunities model, the adjusted probability of a trip ending in a zone is
the product of two independent probabilities, viz., the probability of a trip being attracted to a zone
and the probability of a trip finding a destination in that zone. A form of this model is given below:

MODAL SPLIT
Modal split is the process of separating person-trips by the mode of travel. It is usually expressed
as a fraction, ratio or percentage of the total number of trips. In general, modal split refers to the
trips made by private car or public transport (road or rail). An understanding of modal split is very
important in transportation studies. Further transportation pattern can only be accurately forecast
if the motivations that guide the traveler in his choice of the transportation modes can be analyzed.
Though the factors that govern the individual choice of mode are complex, a study of the same is
of great utility.

FACTORS AFFECTING MODAL SPLIT (MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS)

Factors influencing mode choice of urban travelers:
1. Characteristics of the trip.
2. Household characteristics.
3. Zonal characteristics.
4. Network characteristics.
1.Characteristics of trip
i) Trip purpose: the choice of mode is guided to a certain extent by the trip purpose. To
give an example, home based school trips have a high rate of usage of public transport.
On the other hand, home based shopping journeys can have a higher rate of private car
usage, for the simple reason that it is more convenient to shop when travelling in a
personalized transport.

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ii) Trip length: the length can govern an individual's choice of a particular mode. A
measure of the trip length is also possible by the travel time and the cost of travelling.
2. Household characteristics
i) Income: the income of a person is a direct determinant of the expenses he is prepared to
incur on a journey. Higher income groups are able to purchase and maintain private cars,
and thus private car trips are more frequent as the income increase.
ii) Car ownership: car ownership is determined by the income and for this reason both
income and car ownership are inter-related in their effect on modal choice. In general,
families which own a car prefer private car trips, and in contrast families without car
patronize public transport in the absence of any other alternative.
iii) Family size and composition: the number of persons in the family, the number of school-
going children, the number of wage earns, the number of unemployed, the age-sex
structure of the family, and some other factors connected with the socio- economic status
of the family profoundly influence the modal choice. Some of these factors are responsible
for certain captive trips in public transport, such as those due to old age pensioners, school
children, crippled and infirm persons and those who do not wish to drive.
3. Zonal characteristics
i) Residential density
ii) Concentration of workers
iii) Distance from CBD
The use of public transport increases as the residential density increases. This is because of the
fact that areas with higher residential density are inhabited by persons with lower income, lower
levels of car ownership. It is also found that higher density areas are served well by public transport
system and such areas are oriented towards a better use of public transport system.
4. Network characteristics
i) Accessibility Ratio
It is a measure of the relative accessibility of that zone to all other zones by means of mass transit
network and highway network.

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ii) Travel Time Ratio (TTR)

The ratio of the travel time by public transport and travel time by private car gives a measure of
the attractiveness or otherwise of public transport system.

iii) Travel Cost Ratio (TCR)

The ratio of cost of travel by public transport and cost of travel by car is one of the most important
factors influencing modal choice. The importance of travel cost is related to the economic status.
People with high incomes are unmindful of cost and prefer most expensive modes.

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iv) Service Ratio (SR)

The relative travel service was characterized by the ratio of the travel excess travel times by public
transport and car. The excess travel time was defined as the time spent outside the vehicle during
a trip. Thus, the Service Ratio was defined as follows:

then, using TTR, CR, and SR, modal split curves were developed for work trips.

MODAL SPLIT IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

In Modal Split two variations are possible:
1. Pre-distribution modal split, in which the modal split is considered prior to trip
distribution stages. This procedure is also called as trip end modal split procedure
2. Post-distribution modal split, in which the modal split is considered after distribution
stage. This procedure is also called as trip interchange modal split.
1. Trip-end modal split models/ Pre-distribution modal split
In case of pre-distribution modal split, split is possible at two stages
• At the trip generation stage itself
• After trip generation, but before trip distribution
the modal split is considered at the trip generation stage itself, it is necessary to derive separate
multiple linear regression equation for each mode of transport, i.e., car, public transport, rail etc.
the factors which are considered to influence modal choice are car ownership, residential density,

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distance of zone of origin from the CBD and relative accessibility of the zone of the origin to the
transportation facility. Though this method generates different trip generation patterns for different
trip purposes, but it fails to take into consideration future changes in public transport system,
improvements in highway system, restricting parking etc.
If the modal split is carried out after generation but before distribution, the trop generations are
calculated on the assumption that the mode of travel has no influence on trip generation. After
determining the total trips generated and attracted, these trips are allocated to public transport
system and private car transport by considering relative attractiveness of each mode measured by
considering criteria which can govern modal split. Distribution is then carried out. The flow
diagram of this procedure is shown in the following flow chart.
Advantages of pre-distribution modal split
• They are less difficult and less costly as compared to post-distribution methods.
• This method uses factors such as income, car ownership, family structure, employment etc.
which are characteristics affecting trip generation.
• These models could be very accurate in the short run, if public transport is available and
there is little congestion
Disadvantages
• Since these methods are strongly influenced by existing level of public transport services,
they are inappropriate to studies involving improvements to public transport system
• It does not consider the trip generation characteristics fully
• Insensitive to policy decisions example: Improving public transport, restricting parking etc.

Figure 1: Flow diagram for Modal Split carried out between trip generation and trip distribution

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2.Trip-interchange modal split models/ Post-Distribution

In post-distribution models, one possibility is to carry out modal split after distribution, but before
assignment. In this procedure, the zone to zone home based trips are known. Using this as input,
the procedure determines the zone to zone public transport travellers on the basis of variables
representing characteristics of the person making the journey, characteristics of the destination end
of the journey and characteristics of the transport system all measured on zone to zone basis.
Relative travel time and relative travel costs are some of the usual parameters considered in the
models. By subtracting the zone to zone public transport trips from the total zone to zone person
trips, the person trips made by motor vehicle are derived. The assignment of these trips is carried
out as the next stage. The flow diagram of the above type model is shown below.

Figure 2: Flow diagram for Modal Split carried out after trip distribution

This is the post-distribution model; that is modal split is applied after the distribution stage. This
has the advantage that it is possible to include the characteristics of the journey and that of the

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alternative modes available to undertake them. It is also possible to include policy decisions. This
is beneficial for long term modelling.
Advantages
• It is useful in situations where serious consideration is given to public transport
• The method makes it possible to develop modal split relations based on a wide range of
transport system variables influencing modal choice
• The method considers private care and public transport usage on a zone to zone basis
instead of a zonal basis as in the previous distribution

RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS

Considering the complexities involved in determining modal split, a considerable amount of
research has taken place in recent years to develop better techniques. Three types of mathematical
concepts have been used to construct stochastic modal choice functions for the individual behavior.
1. Probit analysis
2. Logit analysis.
3. Discriminant analysis
1. Probit analysis
It is based on the principle that if members of population are subjected to a stimulus that can range
over an infinite scale, the frequency of response to stimulus (assuming that the response is a 0-1
response) is normally distributed.
In modal choice, the stimulus is assumed to be made up of the relative disutilities of travel on two
modes and of the characteristics of the user. The probit equation can be written as:
𝑌 = 𝑎0 + 𝑎1 𝑥1 + 𝑎2 𝑥2 … … ….
Where
Y = probit value for the probability of transit mode choice.
x1,x2 = disutility variables
the determination of the coefficients of the disutilities is done by calibration procedures, which are
often lengthy and time consuming.
2. Logit analysis.
Logit analysis assumes that the probability of the occurrence of an event varies with respect to
function F(x) as a sigmoid curve called the logistic curve. The logit model can be written as:
1
𝑃1 =
1 + 𝑒 𝐺(𝑥)
Where,

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P1 = probability of an individual choosing mode 1

(1-P1) = probability of an individual choosing mode 1
G(x) =∝1 (𝐶1 − 𝐶2 ) +∝2 (𝑡1 − 𝑡2 ) + ⋯ … … …
∝1,∝2 = model parameter
C1, C2 = Cost of travel by modes 1 and 2
t1, t2 = Time of travel by modes 1 and 2

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