Becattini 2018
Becattini 2018
Becattini 2018
Carotid atherosclerosis and risk for ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation on
oral anticoagulant treatment
PII: S0021-9150(18)30052-2
DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2018.02.004
Reference: ATH 15375
Please cite this article as: Becattini C, Dentali F, Camporese G, Sembolini A, Rancan E, Tonello
C, Manina G, Padayattil S, Agnelli G, Carotid atherosclerosis and risk for ischemic stroke in
patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulant treatment, Atherosclerosis (2018), doi: 10.1016/
j.atherosclerosis.2018.02.004.
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CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS AND RISK FOR ISCHEMIC STROKE IN PATIENTS WITH ATRIAL
Cecilia Becattini 1, Francesco Dentali2, Giuseppe Camporese3, Agnese Sembolini1, Elena Rancan2,
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Internal and Cardiovascular Medicine-Stroke Unit, University of Perugia, Italy. 2Internal Medicine,
University of Insubria, Varese, Italy. 3Unit of Angiology, University Hospital of Padua, Italy.
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Cardiology Unit, University Hospital of Padua, Italy.
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Running head: Carotid atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation
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Keywords Atrial fibrillation, carotid atherosclerosis, carotid stenosis, stroke, anticoagulants
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University of Perugia
cecilia.becattini@unipg.it
Phone 0039.075.5786424
Fax 0039.075.5782436
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Background and Aims Whether carotid atherosclerosis is associated with an increased risk for
ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) on anticoagulant treatment is undefined. To
explore this association, patients with AF on treatment with vitamin K antagonists were included
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Methods At inclusion in the study, patients underwent Doppler-Ultrasonography for the
assessment of carotid atherosclerosis and then were prospectively followed. Ischemic stroke or
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transient ischemic attack (TIA) were the primary study outcomes; death and its causes were
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reported.
Results Overall, 587 patients were included in the study. At ultrasonography, 380 patients had
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carotid atherosclerosis (64.7%) and 45 Internal Carotid (ICA) stenosis ≥ 50% (7.7%). During a mean
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follow-up of 41±15 months, 30 patients had an ischemic stroke or TIA (1.49% per patient-year,
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95% CI 0.96-2.03) and 81 patients died (4.01% per patient-year, 95% CI 3.16-4.86). Carotid
atherosclerosis was associated with a significant increase in the risk for the composite of ischemic
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stroke or TIA or death after adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc (6.0% vs. 3.1% patient-year; HR 1.60, 95%
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CI 0.99-2.59; p=0.05). ICA ≥ 50% was associated with a not significant increase in the risk of
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ischemic stroke or TIA (2.05% vs. 1.45% patient-year; HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.42-4.58) or all-cause death
Conclusions In patients with AF, carotid atherosclerosis is a predictor for the composite of
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cerebrovascular events or death while on anticoagulant therapy. In patients with AF and carotid
evaluated.
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Introduction
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and utilization of health
services (1-3). AF is an independent risk factor for stroke as it increases the annual risk for this
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Age of 65 years or higher, hypertension, diabetes, congestive heart failure and history of stroke or
transient ischemic attack (TIA) are independent risk factors for ischemic stroke, TIA or systemic
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embolism in patients with AF (4-5). More recently, female gender and history of ischemic heart
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disease, peripheral artery disease and aortic plaque were claimed to be additional risk factors for
stroke or systemic embolism in AF patients (2,6-7). These factors have been included in clinical
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models for the assessment of the risk of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with AF (8-9).
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CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 or older, Diabetes and Stroke) and
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CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 or older, Diabetes, Stroke, Vascular
diseases, Age 65 to 74 and Sex) scores are the most commonly recommended models for the
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assessment of the risk for stroke or systemic embolism in patients with AF and they are currently
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Warfarin reduces ischemic stroke by 64% (range 49 to 74%) compared with no treatment or
placebo (12). Despite anticoagulant treatment, patients with AF have a residual risk for stroke or
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systemic embolism. Identification of patients at high risk for stroke despite anticoagulant
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treatment remains crucial to optimize clinical management and improve patients’ outcome.
Carotid atherosclerosis is an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke (13-14). Patients with
asymptomatic carotid stenosis have an increased risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke (13). Among AF
patients, those with significant carotid stenosis are more likely to develop ischemic stroke (15). In
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a retrospective study in AF patients on warfarin, carotid stenosis was an independent predictor for
carotid atherosclerosis as a risk factor for ischemic stroke, TIA or systemic embolism. The
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incidence of major bleeding was also reported.
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Patients and Methods
Full description of Materials and Methods are available in the online-only Data Supplement
Study design
This is a prospective, multicenter, cohort study. Patient accrual started on October 2010 and
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follow-up was closed on April 2015.
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The study was approved by the Ethical Committee of the Coordinating center.
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Patients
Ambulatory patients with known AF referred to the anticoagulation clinic of the participating
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study centers were eligible for the study. Patients were excluded if they met one of the following
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criteria: not on treatment with vitamin K antagonists from at least 1 month, age lower than 18
refusal of written informed consent. No coexisting disease per se was considered an exclusion
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criteria.
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Results
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Study population
Participation in the study was proposed to 687 consecutive patients referred to the anticoagulation clinic of
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the participating study centers. Main reasons for exclusion from the study were impossibility to proceed to
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the study center for ultrasound assessment (bedridden patients) and refusal of consent. Overall, 587
patients were included in the study. More than half of the patients were 75 years of age or over.
About 17% of the patients was on secondary prevention for stroke or systemic embolism and
about 16% had a history of myocardial infarction or angina. A CHA2DS2VASc score of 0 or 1 was
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reported in 15 and 60 patients, respectively. Table 1 reports the main characteristics of the
The mean time in therapeutic range (TTR) was 69%±16 (data available for 414 study patients).
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Findings at carotid ultrasonography
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At ultrasonography, 380 patients had carotid atherosclerosis (64.7%, 95% CI 60.9 to 68.6), that
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Internal Carotid Artery (ICA) stenosis of at least 50% was found in 45 patients (7.7%; 95% CI 5.5 to
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9.8), 20 in the right (3.4%) and 30 in the left side (5.1%); five patients had ICA occlusion (0.9%).
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Bilateral ICA stenosis was diagnosed in five patients.
The prevalence of either carotid stenosis or carotid atherosclerosis increased by CHADS2 (p=0.002)
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and CHA2DS2VASc (p=0.003) scores (Table 1). Increasing age, a history of previous stroke, transient
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ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic heart diseases were independent predictors of ICA stenosis at
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multivariable analysis.
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An ischemic stroke or TIA occurred in 30 patients during a mean follow-up of 41±15 months (range
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value at the time of ischemic stroke or TIA was retrieved for 19 events and was within the
therapeutic range (1.8-3.2) in nine, under the therapeutic range in eight and supra-therapeutic in
two patients.
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As five patients also had an episode of systemic embolism, the incidence of stroke or systemic
An episode of major bleeding occurred in 22 patients (1.10% per patient-year), and it was an
intracranial haemorrhage in 11 patients (0.5% per patient-year). INR value at the time of major
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bleeding was within the therapeutic range (1.8-3.2) in 40% and supra-therapeutic in 20% of the
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Eighty-one patients died during follow-up (4.01% per patient-year, 95% CI 3.16-4.86).
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Carotid ultrasonography and ischemic stroke or TIA
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The incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA was 1.69 and 1.14% per patient-year in patients with
carotid atherosclerosis and in patients without it, respectively (HR 1.46, 95% CI 0.65-3.29); the
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incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA in patients with or without carotid atherosclerosis was similar
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The primary outcome, ischemic stroke or TIA, occurred in three patients with carotid stenosis
(2.05% per patient-year) and in 27 patients without it (1.45% per patient-year). These features
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accounted for a not significant increase in the risk of ischemic stroke or TIA in patients with carotid
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stenosis (HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.42-4.58) that disappeared after adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc score (HR
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The incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA or systemic embolism was numerically higher in patients
with carotid stenosis as compared with patients without it (2.71 vs. 1.51% per patient-year; HR
1.78, 95% CI 0.63-5.08) also after adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc score (HR 1.31, 95% CI 0.45-3.81).
Similar figures were obtained concerning the incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA or systemic
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embolism in patients with and without carotid atherosclerosis (1.14 vs. 1.84% per patient-year;
TTR was similar in patients with and without carotid stenosis (70±15 vs 69±17) or atherosclerosis
(69±16 vs 68±17). No association was found between the incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA and
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TTR (mean values 69±30 vs 68±16 in patients with and without ischemic stroke or TIA,
respectively). The study results were confirmed after adjusting for TTR.
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Carotid ultrasonography and secondary outcome events
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Carotid atherosclerosis was associated with death (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.12-3.51) and with all
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composite outcomes including this event (Table 2); in particular, the presence of carotid
atherosclerosis is associated with an increase of 73% in the risk for ischemic stroke or TIA or death
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after adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc and TTR (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.07-2.79) (Figure).
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A higher incidence of death was observed in patients with carotid stenosis (6.1% vs. 3.8% per
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patient-year; HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.83-3.32). Carotid stenosis was associated with IHD and with all
composite study outcomes that included this event; however, these associations missed statistical
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No change in the results was observed after adjusting for the use of statins or antiplatelet agents.
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Discussion
We found that the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis and carotid stenosis is relatively high in
patients with AF on anticoagulant treatment. In these patients, both these findings are associated
with a not significant increase in ischemic stroke or TIA. Carotid atherosclerosis is an independent
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predictor of death and of several combined cardiovascular event-based endpoints including death.
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In 2010, the CHA2DS2VASc score was introduced in clinical practice as it was claimed to be more
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effective than the original CHADS2 score for stroke-risk stratification in patients with non-valvular
AF (8). Ischemic heart disease, aortic plaques, peripheral artery diseases and not carotid plaques
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are included in the definition of vascular diseases in the CHA2DS2VASc score.
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Carotid atherosclerosis was associated with an about 2-fold increase in the risk for death in AF
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atherosclerosis and death or death plus ischemic stroke or TIA; these associations were confirmed
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after adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc and TTR. These findings suggests that the presence of carotid
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atherosclerosis rather than the severity of the stenosis could be a marker of increased
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cardiovascular risk. In this view, our findings are consistent with those from the ARIC study in
which an association was found between the presence of carotid plaque (regardless of the degree
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of obstruction) and ischemic events (23) and with those of a recent Italian study (24).
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Carotid stenosis is an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke in the general population (13-14).
The reported incidence of ipsilateral stroke or death in patients with asymptomatic carotid
stenosis of 60% or higher managed by medical therapy is 11% at 2 years (25). Limited data are
currently available on the prevalence of carotid stenosis in patients with AF. In a recent analysis of
724 patients included in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who developed AF
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within 5 years and with no history of stroke, the prevalence of carotid plaques was 38% (23). In
our cohort of ambulatory AF patients, we found a 65% prevalence of carotid plaques. This higher
prevalence can be explained by the higher prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities in our study
population as compared to that of the ARIC study. Moreover, the prevalence of carotid
atherosclerosis increases with age; our patients were about 10 years older than those included in
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the ARIC study. The 7.7% prevalence of carotid stenosis observed in our study is lower than the 20
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to 25% prevalence reported in two different studies in ischemic stroke patients with AF (16, 26).
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In patients with AF, an association was claimed between carotid atherosclerosis and the risk of
ischemic stroke (23-24, 27). Carotid plaque was associated with an increased risk for stroke in the
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subgroup of patients from the ARIC study who developed AF (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.00-2.45 after
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adjusting for CHA2DS2VASc) (23). In patients with AF admitted for an ischemic cerebral event
occurring during anticoagulation within the therapeutic range, high-grade stenosis of the
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extracranial carotid or vertebral arteries was claimed to be an independent predictor for stroke
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(OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.13–8.41, p = 0.028) (16). In a subgroup of patients form the retrospective
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associated with recurrent ischemic stroke (27). These studies differed concerning their
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(primary prevention mainly at low risk vs. secondary prevention) and criteria for the assessment of
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atherosclerosis. Moreover, in one of these studies, only about 60% of patients were on anticoagulant
treatment and no data on TTR was reported (24). Thus, the association between carotid stenosis and
outcomes found in that study could be influenced by suboptimal antithrombotic therapy. The FibStroke
registry included all consecutive patients with diagnosed AF (about 4% with concomitant heart valve
prosthesis) who suffered a stroke or intracranial bleeding during the study period (27). In our study, the
use of anticoagulant treatment in all the study patients and the more common use of statins and
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antiplatelets in patients with carotid atherosclerosis as compared with patients without it could
have accounted for a reduced risk for stroke or TIA. In this view, the apparent reduction of the
association between carotid atherosclerosis and outcomes after adjusting for TTR could suggest
that a good quality of anticoagulation may protect against ischemic outcomes also in patients with
carotid atherosclerosis.
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We found a not significant 40% increase in the risk of stroke or TIA in AF patients at moderate to
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high risk for stroke (according to CHADS2 and/or CHA2DS2VASc scores) on anticoagulant treatment
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and carotid stenosis of at least 50%. The non-high prevalence of this high-grade carotid stenosis
and the low rate of stroke observed in our study (35 events overall) could have reduced the
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potential to show a significant association between carotid stenosis and ischemic stroke.
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Moreover, the optimization of cardiovascular prevention (statins or antiplatelets) could have
contributed to reduce the risk of stroke or TIA in AF patients with carotid atherosclerosis and/or
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stenosis.
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In our study, carotid stenosis was associated with an incidence of IHD. Although this association is
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biologically plausible and is consistent with previous findings, it disappeared after adjusting for
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Our study has several limitations and some strengths. Firstly, study patients were recruited among
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those referred to the anticoagulation clinics of the study centers and were mainly ambulatory AF
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patients able to undergo carotid ultrasonography. Thus, our study population could be not
representative of the overall spectrum of AF population. However, the low proportion of patients
with low CHA2DS2VASc score excludes the selection of a low-risk population. Secondly, during the
study period, 30 ischemic stroke or TIA occurred. Although the annual incidence of events is
consistent with currently expected rates during anticoagulant treatment, the number of events is
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lower than expected and does not allow adjustment for all identifiable confounders (e.g. the use
of statins or antiplatelet agents). Thirdly, we report the incidence of study outcome events as
accepted in several contemporary studies provided the use of validated and internationally
recognized definitions of events. For the purpose of this study, we used the definition of stroke or
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systemic embolism reported in international guidelines (20).
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The strengths of our study are the prospective design, the duration of follow-up and the sample
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size. As documented by the incidence of stroke or systemic embolism observed in the study, our
population probably was receiving the optimal medical treatment (anticoagulation, statins,
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antiplatelet agents, treatment for hypertension, etc) for the prevention of cardiovascular events.
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The inclusion in a study focused on cardiovascular events and the follow-up at centers dedicated
In conclusion, the presence of carotid atherosclerosis is associated with a modest increase in the
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risk for stroke or systemic embolism in AF patients on anticoagulant treatment.The finding of the
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the increased risk for IHD in patients with carotid stenosis deserves attention although it is unclear
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anticoagulant treatment.
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Conflict of Interest
None of the authors has conflict of interest to disclose for the present study.
Financial support
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Dr Giorgia Manina received a Research Grant for this study by the Società Italiana di Medicina
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Interna on October 2012.
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Author contributions
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Cecilia Becattini, Giorgia Manina and Giancarlo Agnelli contributed to the conception of the study
design, starting procedures, analysis and interpretation of the results, writing the preliminary draft
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of the manuscript.
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Francesco Dentali, Giuseppe Camporese, Agnese Sembolini, Elena Rancan, Chiara Tonello, Seena
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Table 1 Main features of the overall study population and of the subgroups of patients with or without carotid atherosclerosis and with or
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Carotid atherosclerosis ICA stenosis
All
Patients
patients
Present Absent Adjusted OR Present Absent Adjusted OR
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features p-
N = 587 p- value
N= 380 N= 207 (CI 95%) N = 45 N = 542 value (CI 95%)
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Age years, mean ±SD 74.5±9 76±8 72±10 <0.001 1.05 (1.02-1.07) 78±8 74±9 0.008 1.05 (1.01-1.1)
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243 159 (41.8) 84 (40.6) Ns --
Female sex, n (%) 19 (43.2) 224 (41.3) Ns --
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(41.4)
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(75.5)
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101 90 (23.7) 27 (13.0) 0.002 1.9 (1.2-3.1)
Diabetes, n (%) 12 (27.3) 89 (16.4) Ns --
(17.2)
(22.1)
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CHA2DS2VASc, 3.7±1.7 3.0±1.7 <0.001 -- <0.00
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3.5±1.7 4.6±1.7 3.4±1.7
mean ±SD 1
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Table 2 Association between carotid stenosis and study outcome events and between carotid atherosclerosis and study outcome events.
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Clinical Outcome HR 95% CI p-value HR 95% CI p-value
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Ischemic stroke or TIA 1.39 0.42-4.57 Ns 1.48 0.66-3.33 Ns
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Any stroke or TIA 1.02 0.31-3.30 Ns 1.38 0.69-2.76 Ns
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Death univariate 1.66 0.83-3.32 Ns 2.36 1.36-4.13 0.003
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Ischemic Stroke or TIA or death 1.40 0.73-2.69 Ns 1.88 1.17-3.02 0.009
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Adjusted for CHA2DS2VASc
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1.09 0.56-2.13 Ns 1.73 1.07-2.79 0.025
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*the correlation missed statistical significance after adjusting for age or CHA2DS2VASc and TTR
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Figure – Risk for ischemic stroke or TIA or death in patients with and without carotid
atherosclerosis
Patients with carotid atherosclerosis are represented as a dotted line and patients without carotid
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atherosclerosis are represented as a continuous line.
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CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS AND THE RISK FOR ISCHEMIC STROKE IN PATIENTS WITH ATRIAL
Cecilia Becattini 1, Francesco Dentali2, Giuseppe Camporese3, Agnese Sembolini1, Elena Rancan2,
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1
Internal and Cardiovascular Medicine-Stroke Unit, University of Perugia, Italy. 2Internal Medicine,
University of Insubria, Italy. 3Unit of Angiology, University Hospital of Padua, Italy. 4Cardiology
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Unit, University Hospital of Padua, Italy.
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Running head: Carotid atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation
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Keywords Atrial fibrillation, carotid atherosclerosis, carotid stenosis, stroke, anticoagulants
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University of Perugia
cecilia.becattini@unipg.it
Phone 0039.075.5786424
Fax 0039.075.5782436
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Highlights
highly prevalent.
• Carotid atherosclerosis is associated with an increased risk for death or ischemic stroke or
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transient ischemic attack (TIA) in AF patients on anticoagulant treatment, after adjusting
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• Carotid stenosis is associated with a not significant increase in the risk for ischemic stroke
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or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in AF patients on anticoagulant treatment
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patients with AF and carotid atherosclerosis.
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