Legislative Control Final
Legislative Control Final
Legislative Control Final
Oct. 7, 2008
Despite the unprecedented spotlight on the race for president, the most competitive
and influential races in Montana may be those for the chronically divided state
Legislature.
“As close as the Legislature is, everything is really important,” said Kevin O’Brien,
Montana Democrat Party spokesman. “There’s not one place in this state that’s not
competitive right now.”
Erik Iverson, Montana GOP chairman, said Republicans will try to regain control of
state politics by taking majorities in both the state House and Senate.
“We’ve put a premium on winning back the Montana Legislature,” Iverson said.
“That’s my No. 1 priority.”
Although districts near Billings and Whitefish and in the Bitterroot Valley have been
targeted as swing districts, O’Brien said Democrats are campaigning door-to-door, border
to border.
“This thing is close and every race matters a lot,” O’Brien said. “If you have one
candidate out there who’s not working that hard, that could cost you the majority.”
Currently, Democrats have a 26-24 majority in the Senate, while Republicans hold a
50-49 edge in the House. The conservative Constitution Party holds one seat, giving the
GOP an effective majority on typically partisan issues like spending and taxing.
In all, 125 seats are up for election in November: half of the 50-seat Senate and all
100 seats in the House.
Montana has been Red state in recent decades, O’Brien said, but Democrats are
making a comeback.
“There’s not one place in this state that isn’t competitive for Democrats right now,
and that wasn’t the same thing 10 years ago.”
He credits the shift to strong Democrats elected in the past 10 years, like Gov. Brian
Schweitzer, U.S. Senator Max Baucus and U.S. Senator Jon Tester.
“We feel good in areas that are traditionally Republican strongholds,” O’Brien said.
He expects gains in the Bitterroot Valley, where Democrats now hold majority of
county commissioner seats, and in traditionally Republican Flathead County, where the
party has made inroads
“If you would have said that to somebody 10 years ago, they would’ve thought you
were crazy,” O’Brien said.
Iverson said the Republicans are taking a more scientific approach to legislative
races. Of the 125 legislative seats up for grabs, Iverson said the GOP is focusing on 32
seats: If they win those seats, they would have solid majorities in both houses.
He broke the races down into three categories: vulnerable incumbent Republicans,
vulnerable incumbent Democrats and open seats.
The party’s money will go only toward races that are close, he said.
“We’re not going to get involved in a race for the state Legislature in a seat that isn’t
somewhere between 45 and 55 percent Republican seat,” Iverson said. “I’m not going to
spend money on a race where our candidate is going to win 70 to 30 or our candidate is
going to lose 30 to 70.”
Western Montana is a hotbed of swing districts in the state Senate, according to
Iverson.
“Two of our best opportunities to take seats away from the Democrats in the
Montana senate are right here in Western Montana,” he said.
In Senate District 2, where incumbent Sen. Dan Weinberg, D-Whitefish, decided not
to seek re-election, Republicans are betting on newcomer Ryan Zinke, a 48-year-old
retired Navy SEAL who supports small-business growth.
Zinke is pitted against Democrat Brittany MacLean, a 38-year-old widowed mother
of four from Whitefish, who is campaigning door-to-door.
In Senate District 7, which encompasses Sanders and Mineral Counties, incumbent
Democrat Sen. Jim Elliott is leaving an open seat due to term limits. Republican
contender Greg Hinkle of Thompson Falls will battle Rep. Paul Clark, D-Trout Creek.
Iverson added that the GOP is especially interested in the district because of a write-
in campaign run by Judy Stang, a former Democratic county commissioner who lost to
Clark in the primary election. Iverson said splitting the Democratic vote could benefit
Hinkle.
In Billings’ Senate District 2, Republican Taylor Brown, a well-known farm and
ranch broadcaster, is challenging incumbent Sen. Lane Larson. Both Brown and Larson
have considerable war chests, and the race is projected to be the most expensive in the
state.
House District 8 features a battle between incumbent Rep. Craig Witte, R-Kalispell,
and Democrat Cheryl Steenson. Witte won the traditionally Republican seat in 2006 by
only 37 votes.
Both parties agree that every seat is crucial for the upcoming legislative session. The
2007 session collapsed because of partisan bickering, with legislators failing to pass a
state budget for the first time in history.
Iverson said lack of civility was to blame for the Legislature’s debacle in 2007.
“Republicans and Democrats are equally guilty for what I think is an embarrassingly
partisan tone,” he said.
While the races are still up in the air, Iverson said another split session is a distinct
possibility.
“We want to win the election,” he said. “But more importantly, once the election is
over we have to govern. We have to figure out a way that we can reach across the aisle
and bring in enough Democrats that we can pass an agenda that we want, and that means
compromise.”
For Republicans, the 2009 agenda includes legislation for job creation, developing
existing natural resources, property-tax relief and cuts in state spending.
O’Brien referred to the 2009 Democratic platform as a “common sense agenda,”
focusing on children’s health care, education, energy solutions and public access to land
and water.
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