Exam questions probability

2 1
1. (P1) Events E and F are independent, with P(E) = 3 and P(E Ç F) = 3 . Calculate

(a) P(F);

(b) P(E È F).

(Total 6 marks)

2. (P1) The letters of the word PROBABILITY are written on 11 cards as shown below.

Two cards are drawn at random without replacement.

Let A be the event the first card drawn is the letter A.
Let B be the event the second card drawn is the letter B.

(a) Find P(A).

(1)

(b) Find P(B│A).

(2)

(c) Find P(A ∩ B).

(3)
(Total 6 marks)

3. (P2) A class contains 13 girls and 11 boys. The teacher randomly selects four students.
Determine the probability that all four students selected are girls.
(Total 6 marks)

4. (P1) The diagram below shows the probabilities for events A and B, with P(A′) = p.

(a) Write down the value of p.

(1)

(b) Find P(B).

(3)

(c) Find P(A′ | B).

 (3)
(Total 7 marks)

2 1 7
5. (P1) Consider the events A and B, where P(A) = 5 , P(B′) = 4 and P(A È B) = 8 .

(a) Write down P(B).

(b) Find P(A Ç B).

(c) Find P(A  B).

(Total 6 marks)

6. (P1) In a group of 16 students, 12 take art and 8 take music. One student takes neither art
nor music. The Venn diagram below shows the events art and music. The values p, q, r
and s represent numbers of students.

(a) (i) Write down the value of s.

(ii) Find the value of q.

(iii) Write down the value of p and of r.

(5)

(b) (i) A student is selected at random. Given that the student takes music, write
down the probability the student takes art.

(ii) Hence, show that taking music and taking art are not independent events.
(4)

(c) Two students are selected at random, one after the other. Find the probability that
the first student takes only music and the second student takes only art.
(4)
(Total 13 marks)
7. (P1) The Venn diagram below shows events A and B where P(A) = 0.3, P( A  B ) = 0.6 and
P(A ∩ B) = 0.1. The values m, n, p and q are probabilities.

(a) (i) Write down the value of n.

(ii) Find the value of m, of p, and of q.

(4)

(b) Find P(B′).

(2)
(Total 6 marks)

8. (P1) There are 20 students in a classroom. Each student plays only one sport. The table
below gives their sport and gender.

Football Tennis Hockey

Female 5 3 3
Male 4 2 3

(a) One student is selected at random.

(i) Calculate the probability that the student is a male or is a tennis player.

(ii) Given that the student selected is female, calculate the probability that the
student does not play football.
(4)

(b) Two students are selected at random. Calculate the probability that neither student
plays football.
(3)
(Total 7 marks)

9. (P2) In any given season, a soccer team plays 65 % of their games at home.
When the team plays at home, they win 83 % of their games.
When they play away from home, they win 26 % of their games.

The team plays one game.

 (a) Find the probability that the team wins the game.
(4)

(b) If the team does not win the game, find the probability that the game was played
at home.
(4)
(Total 8 marks)

10. (P2)
A company uses two machines, A and B, to make boxes. Machine A makes 60 % of the
boxes.

80 % of the boxes made by machine A pass inspection.

90 % of the boxes made by machine B pass inspection.

A box is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that it passes inspection.

(3)

(b) The company would like the probability that a box passes inspection to be 0.87.
Find the percentage of boxes that should be made by machine B to achieve this.
(4)
(Total 7 marks)
 Mark scheme

1. (a) For attempting to use the formula (P(E Ç F) = P(E)P(F)) (M1)

Correct substitution or rearranging the formula A1

1
3
1 2 PE  F  2

eg 3 3 P(F), P(F) = P E  , P(F) = 3

1
P(F) = 2 A1
N2

(b) For attempting to use the formula (P(E È F) = P(E) + P(F)

 (P(E Ç F)) (M1)

2 1 1
 
P(E È F) = 3 2 3 A1

5
 0.833
= 6 A1
N2
[6]

1
2. (a) P(A) = 11 A1 N1

2
(b) P(B│A) = 10 A2
N2

(c) recognising that P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B│A) (M1)

correct values (A1)
1 2

e.g. P(A ∩ B) = 11 10
2
P(A ∩ B) = 110
A1
N3
[6]

 13   12   11   10 
 , , , 
3. Correct probabilities  24   23   22   21  (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)
  13 12 11 10 
    
Multiplying  24 23 22 21  (M1)

17160  65 
  0.0673 
P(4 girls) = 255024  966  (A1)
(C6)
[6]

4
4. (a) p= 5 A1 N1

(b) multiplying along the branches (M1)

1 1 12
 ,
e.g. 5 4 40

adding products of probabilities of two mutually exclusive paths (M1)

1 1 4 3 1 12
   , 
e.g. 5 4 5 8 20 40
14  7 
 
P(B) = 40  20  A1
N2

(c) appropriate approach which must include A′ (may be seen on diagram) (M1)
P( A  B)  P( A  B ) 
 do not accept 
P( B)  P( B ) 
e.g.
4 3

5 8
7
P(A′│B) = 20 (A1)
12  6 
 
P(A′│B) = 14  7  A1
N2
[7]

3
5. (a) 4 A1 N1

(b) P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A Ç B) (M1)

P(A Ç B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A È B)

2 3 7
 
= 5 4 8 A1

11
= 40 (0.275) A1
N2
  11 
P( A  B)  40 

P( B)  3 
 
(c) P(A ê B) =  4  A1

11
(0.367)
= 30 A1
N1
[6]

6. (a) (i) s=1 A1 N1

(ii) evidence of appropriate approach (M1)

e.g. 21–16, 12 + 8 – q =15
q=5 A1
N2

(iii) p = 7, r = 3 A1A1
N2
5

5
(b) (i) P(art|music) = 8 A2
N2

(ii) METHOD 1

12  3 
P art    
16  4  A1

evidence of correct reasoning R1

3 5

e.g. 4 8

the events are not independent AG

N0

METHOD 2

96  3
 
P(art) × P(music) = 256  8 A1

evidence of correct reasoning R1

 12 8 5
 
e.g. 16 16 16

the events are not independent AG

N0
4

3
(c) P(first takes only music) = 16 = (seen anywhere) A1
7
P(second takes only art)= 15 (seen anywhere) A1
evidence of valid approach (M1)
3 7

e.g. 16 15
21  7 
 
P(music and art)= 240  80  A1
N2
4
[13]

7. (a) (i) n = 0.1 A1 N1

(ii) m = 0.2, p = 0.3, q = 0.4 A1A1A1

N3
4

(b) appropriate approach

e.g. P(B′) =1– P(B), m + q, 1–(n + p) (M1)

P(B′) = 0.6 A1
N2
2

8. (a) (i) correct calculation (A1)

9 5 2 4  2  3 3
  ,
e.g. 20 20 20 20

12  3 
 
P(male or tennis) = 20  5 A1
N2

(ii) correct calculation (A1)

6 11 3  3
 ,
e.g. 20 20 11

6
P(not football | female) = 11 A1
 N2

11 10
(b) P(first not football) = 20 , P(second not football) = 19 A1

11 10
P(neither football) = 20 ´ 19 A1

110  11 
 
P(neither football) = 380  38  A1
N1
[7]

9. (a) appropriate approach (M1)

e.g. tree diagram or a table

P(win) = P(H ∩ W) + P(A ∩ W)) (M1)

= (0.65)(0.83) + (0.35)(0.26) A1
= 0.6305 (or 0.631) A1
N2

(b) evidence of using complement (M1)

e.g. 1 – p, 0.3695

choosing a formula for conditional probability (M1)

P(W   H )
e.g. P(H│W′) = P(W )

correct substitution
(0.65)(0.17)   0.1105 
 
e.g. 0.3695  0.3695  A1
P(home) = 0.299 A1
N3
[8]
10. (a) evidence of valid approach involving A and B (M1)

e.g. P(A ∩ pass) + P(B ∩ pass), tree diagram

correct expression (A1)

e.g. P(pass) = 0.6 × 0.8 + 0.4 × 0.9

P(pass) = 0.84 A1
N2
3

(b) evidence of recognizing complement (seen anywhere) (M1)

e.g. P(B) = x, P(A) = 1 – x, 1 – P(B), 100 – x, x + y =1

evidence of valid approach (M1)

e.g. 0.8(1 – x) + 0.9x, 0.8x + 0.9y

correct expression A1

e.g. 0.87 = 0.8(1 – x) + 0.9x, 0.8 × 0.3 + 0.9 × 0.7 = 0.87, 0.8x + 0.9y = 0.87

70 % from B A1
N2
4
[7]