SPTC 0902 Q3 FD
SPTC 0902 Q3 FD
Lesson 2
Interval Estimator for the Population
Mean
Table of Contents
Learning Competencies 2
Learning Objectives 2
Suggested Time Frame 2
Essential Questions 3
Prerequisite Skills and Topics 3
Lesson Proper 4
- A. Introduction 4
- B. Discussion 6
- C. Practice and Feedback 11
Performance Assessment 17
Synthesis 27
Bibliography 27
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Unit 9 | Estimating Parameter Values
Lesson 2: Interval Estimator for the Population
Mean
Learning Competencies
The learner
• illustrates point and interval estimations [M11/12SP-IIIf-2]; and
• distinguishes between point and interval estimation [M11/12SP-IIIf-3].
Learning Objectives
1
Suggested time frame is based on the DepEd calendar for A.Y. 2018-2019 and the curriculum guide for mathematics (August
2016 version).
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Essential Questions
At the end of this lesson, the student should be able to answer the following questions:
• What is the advantage of interval estimates over point estimates?
• Why varying confidence levels are used in constructing interval estimates?
Skills:
• Solving a point estimate of the population mean
• Solving areas under the normal curve
Topics:
• Statistics and Probability Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values | Lesson 1: Point
Estimator for the Population Mean
• Statistics and Probability Unit 4: Standard Scores and the Normal Curve | Lesson 2:
Regions under the Normal Curve
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Lesson Proper
A. Introduction
Choose from any of the following warm-up activities. These warm-up activities should
either stimulate recall of previous lesson or introduce the lesson and not already used
in the study guide.
Guide Questions:
1. Are you good at estimating using a range of
values?
2. How can you say that an estimate is correct?
3. What is the advantage of giving a range of values
instead of a single number when estimating? What
is the disadvantage?
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
In this activity, the students Methodology:
will estimate the amount of 1. Prepare a jar filled with coins beforehand. Make
coins in a jar by providing a sure that you know the exact amount it contains.
range of values. 2. Ask the students to form groups with three
members.
3. Tell them to estimate the total amount of coins
inside the jar. Let them give a range of values.
4. Let each group share their answer to the class.
5. The group whose estimate contains the correct
answer wins. If there is more than one group who
made a correct estimate, the one with the smallest
range wins.
Expected Results:
The students should be able to give reasonable estimates
of the value.
Guide Questions:
1. Was it hard to estimate the amount inside the jar?
Why or why not?
2. How did you come up with your estimate?
3. Why is the smallest range of values that contains
the correct answer to the best estimate?
Teacher’s Notes
A suggested warm-up activity with ICT integration is available in the presentation file
that you can download through this link: https://bit.ly/2MDXXBy
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
B. Discussion
Teacher’s Notes
An alternative way of presenting the following discussion is through the video lecture
included in your Quipper Video subscription package. Just log in to your teacher
account at http://link.quipper.com/ and assign your students the corresponding video
lecture which they can watch either at home or in the classroom.
Example:
A 95% confidence level means that the probability that an interval estimate
contains the true population parameter is 0.95. Moreover, since 0.95 = 1 −
0.05, the corresponding significance level is 𝛼 = 0.05.
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( ),
√𝑛
where 𝑥̅ is the sample mean, 𝛼 is the significance level, 𝑧𝛼⁄2 is the 𝑧-value
𝛼
corresponding to the area on the right tail of the standard normal
2
distribution, 𝜎 is the population standard deviation, and 𝑛 is the sample size.
We call the resulting interval estimate a confidence interval.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Note that the second term in the formula is the margin of error of the point
estimate 𝑥.
𝜎
𝐸 = ±𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
The value of 𝑧𝛼⁄2 in the formula varies depending on the confidence level 1 −
𝛼.
We have learned from the previous lessons how to get the 𝑧-value
corresponding to a given area under the standard normal distribution. The
following table shows the critical values of the most commonly used
confidence levels.
Confidence Level (𝟏 − 𝜶
𝜶 𝒛𝜶⁄
𝟐 𝟐
𝜶)
𝟗𝟎% 0.10 0.05 1.645
𝟗𝟓% 0.05 0.025 1.96
𝟗𝟖% 0.02 0.01 2.33
𝟗𝟗% 0.01 0.005 2.58
Example:
The table below shows the random sample of weights in pounds of 30
students in a certain high school. Suppose that the population standard
deviation is 𝜎 = 13 lbs. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the
population mean.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Since we need to use a 99% confidence level, 𝑧𝛼⁄2 = 2.58. Substitute the
values into the formula.
𝜎 13
𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( ) = 108.6 ± 2.58 ( )
√𝑛 √30
13
108.6 − 2.58 ( ) ≈ 102.48
√30
13
108.6 + 2.58 ( ) ≈ 114.72
√30
Teacher’s Notes
Use the Try It! slides of the corresponding presentation file to present the worked
examples. You may also refer to the worked examples provided in the study
guide for varieties.
𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
1.2
𝐸 = 1.645 ( )
√38
= 0.3202
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
𝑥̅ − 𝐸 = 98 − 9.4374 = 88.5626
𝑥̅ + 𝐸 = 98 + 9.4374 = 107.4374
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
(𝟖𝟖. 𝟓𝟔𝟐𝟔, 𝟏𝟎𝟕. 𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟒).
Teacher’s Notes
Use the Let’s Practice! slides of the corresponding presentation file to present the
questions for practice. You may also refer to the Try It Yourself! questions provided in
the study guide for varieties.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
22
𝐸 = 1.96 ( )
√100
= 4.312
Thus, the 95% confidence interval is (𝟏𝟏𝟓. 𝟔𝟖𝟖, 𝟏𝟐𝟒. 𝟑𝟏𝟐). This
means that there is a 95% probability that the population
mean is between 𝟏𝟏𝟓. 𝟔𝟖𝟖 and 𝟏𝟐𝟒. 𝟑𝟏𝟐.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄ ( )
2
√𝑛
5 450
= 2.58 ( )
√50
= 1 988.53
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
(𝟐𝟏 𝟒𝟔𝟏. 𝟒𝟕, 𝟐𝟓 𝟒𝟑𝟖. 𝟓𝟑).
Solution/Explanation: 𝜎
We use the formula 𝑥̅ ± 𝐸, where 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( 𝑛).
√
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
values into the formula.
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝐸 = 𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
5
= 9 ± 1.645 ( )
√1 050
= 9 ± 0.2538
= 8.7462, 9.2358
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝐸 = 𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼⁄ ( )
2
√𝑛
5
= 9 ± 1.96 ( )
√1 050
= 9 ± 0.3024
= 8.6976, 9.3024
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝐸 = 𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
5
= 9 ± 2.58 ( )
√1 050
= 9 ± 0.3981
= 8.6019, 9.3981
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
The higher the confidence level, the higher the value of 𝑧𝛼⁄2 .
The higher the value of 𝑧𝛼⁄2 , the greater the margin of error.
The greater the margin of error, the wider the confidence
interval.
Web Box
For more discussion on interval estimator for the population mean, visit the following
web page:
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Performance Assessment
This performance assessment serves as formative assessment, divided into three sets
based on student’s level of learning. See next pages for separate printable worksheets.
• Worksheet I (for beginners)
• Worksheet II (for average learners)
• Worksheet III (for advanced learners)
Teacher’s Notes
For a standard performance assessment regardless of the student’s level of learning,
you may give the problem items provided in the Check Your Understanding section of
the study guide.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Worksheet I
A. Identify the value or expression being described. Choose your answer from the box
below. (6 points)
𝜎
1.645 2.33 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
1.96 2.58 𝑥̅ ± 𝐸
B. Given the data below, determine the margin of error, and confidence interval for the
population mean at the given confidence level. (9 points)
𝑥̅ = 25 𝜎=3 𝑛 = 34
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
2. 95% confidence level
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Worksheet II
B. Given the data below, determine the margin of error, and confidence interval for the
population mean at the given confidence level. (9 points)
𝑥̅ = 102.5 𝜎 = 11.4 𝑛 = 50
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
2. 95% confidence level
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Worksheet III
B. Given the data below, determine the margin of error, and confidence interval for the
population mean at the given confidence level. (6 points)
𝑥̅ = 322.3 𝜎 = 21.5 𝑛 = 45
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
2. 99% confidence level
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
2. 99% confidence level
D. Explain what happens to the length of a confidence interval as the sample size
increases. (2 points)
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Answer Key
Worksheet I
A.
𝜎
1. 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼⁄2 ( 𝑛)
√
2. 1.645
3. 1.96
4. 𝑥̅ ± 𝐸
5. 2.33
6. 2.58
B.
1. 𝐸 = 0.85, 90% confidence interval: (24.15, 25.85)
2. 𝐸 = 1.01, 95% confidence interval: (23.99, 26.01)
3. 𝐸 = 1.33, 99% confidence interval: (23.67, 26.33)
Worksheet II
A.
1. Interval estimator
2. Confidence level
3. 1.645
4. 1.96
5. 2.33
6. 2.58
B.
1. 𝐸 = 2.65, 90% confidence interval: (99.85, 105.15)
2. 𝐸 = 3.16, 95% confidence interval: (99.34, 105.66)
3. 𝐸 = 4.16, 99% confidence interval: (98.34, 106.66)
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Interpretation: There is a 99% probability that the mean amount of garbage
generated by each person per day in the town is between 435.5 grams and 564.5
grams.
Worksheet III
A.
1. T
2. F
3. T
4. F
5. T
6. T
B.
1. 𝐸 = 5.27, 90% confidence interval: (317.03, 327.57)
2. 𝐸 = 8.27, 99% confidence interval: (314.03, 330.57)
C.
1. 95% confidence interval: (80 141.15, 80 658.85)
Interpretation: There is a 95% probability that the mean number of vehicles that
use the highway every day is between 80 141.15 and 80 658.85.
2. 99% confidence interval: (80 059.26, 80 740.74)
Interpretation: There is a 99% probability that the mean number of vehicles that
use the highway is between 80 059.26 and 80 740.74.
D. In the formula for the margin of error, the sample size is in the denominator. Thus,
as the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases. This will result in a
narrower confidence interval. Thus, as the sample size increases, the length of the
confidence interval decreases.
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Unit 9: Estimating Parameter Values • Grade 11/12
Synthesis
Application and Values To integrate values and build connection to the real world,
Integration ask students the following questions:
1. In what instances do you use a range of numbers to
estimate?
2. Why do you think is it important to give estimates of
population parameters?
Bridge to the Next Topic To spark interest for the next lesson, ask students the
following questions:
1. How will you construct a confidence interval if the
population standard deviation is unknown?
2. How will you construct a confidence interval if the
population is not normally distributed?
Bibliography
Berman, Harvey. “Estimation in Statistics.” Stat Trek. Retrieved 29 July 2019 from
https://bit.ly/2SUnzvr.
Chan Shio, Christian Paul O. and Maria Angeli T. Reyes. Statistics and Probability for Senior
High School. Quezon City: C & E Publishing, 2017.
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