ICT:

Emerging Technological Trends and Society

TuK

Diptech IT/CT/CN Year III & Btech IT/CT/CN Year IV Semester 2

002: COMPUTER H/W, S/W AND

TELECOMMUNICATION TRENDS
SUBJECT CODE: 4204
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

LECTURE OVERVIEW

1. Lecture Aims & Objectives

2. Lecture Outline
3. Recommended chapter from recommended reading list
4.Lecture Topic
5. Q&A

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ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

AIMS & OBJECTIVES

• AIMS & OBJECTIVES
1) To study past and present TRENDS in traditional, current and
future memory, storage, processor and internet technology
2) To learn future trajectories of growth projected for emerging trend
in memory, storage, processors and internet technology
3) To identify and explain the characteristics, advantages and
disadvantages of computing growth trends for memory, storage,
processors and internet technology
4) To discuss the social and ethical implications on society related to
trends in memory, storage, processors and internet technology

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ECII 4204
LECTURE OUTLINE ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

1) introduction to topic and why study trends?

computer software trends

http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke

2)

3) memory & storage trends

4) Processor trends
5)Internet rends
6) Q & A
ECII
ABEQ4204
4351 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

RECOMMENDED READING CHAPTER FROM

RECOMMENDED BOOK

1. Chapter….

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ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

INTRODUCTION

• INTRODUCTION AND WHY STUDY TRENDS?

1) To understand and predict the future of I.T. & computing
industry, Hardware, Software and Telecommunication defined
eras:

2) The I.T. & computing industries current key growth drivers are
digitization
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

COMPUTER

AND I.T.

TRENDS

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ECII/ECSI/ECCI 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

COMPUTER AND I.T. TRENDS

McKinsey&Company

Half of today’s work activities could be automated as early

as 2035-that is only 18 years from now

(Disruption WARNING: - adapt or be SWALLOWED WHOLE!)

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ECII/ECSI/ECCI 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

COMPUTER AND I.T. TRENDS

McKinsey&Company

We always Overestimate the change that will occur in the next 2

years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10.
Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction!
-Bill Gates
(Disruption WARNING: - adapt or be SWALLOWED WHOLE!)

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ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

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ECII 4204
● STACK OVERFLOW 10 most Popular languages of 2020:-
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
SOFTWARE TRENDS:- 10 MOST POPULAR LANGUAGES OF 2020
RUST
● Most popular systems programming language
● Developed by Mozilla
● An alternative to C and C++
● Used for safe systems programming (building systems that other s/w
run on e.g. OS Shells)

● WHY? Uses open development process, offers better performance &

control (when and how much memory to allocate so you will know how
the program will perform every time it runs)., memory safety and
fearless concurrency

● ALSO:-Has interesting features (e.g. affine types, hygienic macros)

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
SOFTWARE TRENDS:- 10 MOST POPULAR LANGUAGES
2020
TYPESCRIPT
● Second most popular
● Open source programming language
● Developed by Microsoft
● Javascript +other features
● Used to develop JS client and server side applications

● WHY? Features static typing which increases confidence in a

developer’s code correctness, and can be adopted
incrementally,

● Polyfills many ECMAScript changes (like arrow functions, async,

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
POPULAR S/W TRENDS:-WHAT MAKES A LANGUAGE AN EMERGING TECH?

● Is the language usable both at

the frontend and backend?

● Does the language use the same

code for both the client and the
server?
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
POPULAR S/W TRENDS:-WHAT MAKES A LANGUAGE AN EMERGING TECH?
● Is the Language easy to read, write, fast to code in, have a small % of bugs and open source?
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
POPULAR S/W TRENDS:-WHAT MAKES A LANGUAGE AN EMERGING TECH?
● Can the language be converted into JavaScript?
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
POPULAR S/W TRENDS:-WHAT MAKES A LANGUAGE AN EMERGING TECH?
● Does the language offer a wide range of application usage?
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
THE CURRENT COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
POPULAR S/W TRENDS:-WHAT MAKES A LANGUAGE AN EMERGING TECH?
● Does Language have type inference?
THE CURRENT & FUTURE COMPUTER SOFTWARE GENERATION TRENDS

UBIQUITOUSNESS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NATURAL

LANGUAGE-LANGUAGE
EVERYWHERE
CONVERGENCE SOCIAL CONNECTEDNESS VIRTUAL
REALITY/OTHER
WORLDLINESS
CONSUME LESS ENERGY INTERACTION-MULTIMEDIA
(TOUCH/SPEECH/VOICE)

ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

ECII 4204
THE CURRENT COMPUTER S/W TRENDS -S.D.L.C

Software development methodology are the 1. Agile

frameworks used to structure, plan, and control 2. DevOps
the process of developing an information system. 3. Scrum
4. Waterfall

ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

 5. Prototype

6. Feature

7. Rapid
prototype,

8. Spiral

9. Dynamic

10. Extreme

11. Joint

12. Lean
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

CURRENT SDLC DISADVANTAGES

1. Too much work on 4. Good for small, fast moving
software rather than projects
documentation (lack of
documentation) 5. Documentation occupies a
large amount of time rather
than coding
2. Difficult to assess
effort required at 6. Too much client involvement
beginning

some work well in certain projects,

3. Speed and security not depending on the nature of the project,
always achieved
others are more suited to a particular project
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

FUTURE SDLC STEPS

5. If necessary add hand code to
1. Determine requirements front-end or customise automatic
generated SQL queries

2. Select 3rd party APIs

6. Test for user acceptance

3. Draw apps workflows/data
models and UI in the visual IDE
7. Deploy to production

4. Connect APIs using automatic

capability discovery 8. Push updates with single click
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS

LOW CODE (LCD) AND NO CODE (NCD) DEVELOPMENT

Type of RAD visual software development environment (VSDE)

Uses DAD GUI

Create mobile or web apps by dragging, dropping AND connecting

application components together

No hand/hard-coding

No complex programming language

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS

LOW CODE DEVELOPMENT (LCD) AND NO CODE DEVELOPMENT

Programmers and non-programmers can visualize applications without

writing complex code ; makes it easy to code by eliminating the
pre-requirement of complex coding

Does not require expertise (grasp and customize software projects your
own way) to build software applications in the cloud
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS

*(Examples:-App
Sheet, Mendix,
AppMakr, Infinite
Monkeys)* -
easy to read, write,
code backend and
front end and
deploy cross
platform
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ECII 4204
THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS
WHY LOW CODE DEVELOPMENT (LCD) AND NO CODE
DEVELOPMENT

The average app lifecycle is getting shorter

Shortage of app developers

Traditional s/w development requires teams of dedicated coders

Expensive

Time-consuming

A Barrier to entry for new developers

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER SOFTWARE TRENDS

ADVANTAGES OF
LCD & NCD

Quickly transforms
ideas into prototypes
OR entire
applications
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

DATA STORAGE TRENDS

HOW HDD WORKS
HDD parts:
1-Actuator
2-Read-write arm
3-Central spindle
4-Magnetic platter

5-Plug connections
6-Read-write head
7-Circuit board

8-Flexible
connector
9-Small spindle
arm
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CT
 HDD:How it works
● Hard drives contain one or more magnetic silver platters ( 4)

● Platters (4) are divided into billions of tiny areas

● (4) rotates upto 10,000 RPM

● Information in these areas is stored magnetically in binary
form

● Actuator (1) moves the read-write arm (2)

● 1 positions 2 more quickly/precisely/reliably (less sensitive

to temp. variations)
ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE CURRENT TRENDS OF DATA STORAGE

• DISADVANTAGES OF MOORE’S LAW FOR PATA/SATA/SCSI

All HDDs storing data using magnetism can crash and burn -This means
losing data

HDDs have mechanical parts that can fail e.g. Dropping a laptop leads to the
read-write heads touching the spinning platters resulting in severe data loss.
ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE CURRENT TRENDS IN DATA STORAGE

• SSD (TREND:-HDD with moving parts replaced by flash memory with no moving parts-trend)

Stores data without use of magnetic media.

Use flash memory technology and integrated circuits (semiconductor devices) to

store data permanently or till erased.

Advantages:-
● Faster data access.
● Less susceptible to shock.
● Lower access times and latency.
● Less power usage.
ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE CURRENT TRENDS OF DATA STORAGE

• SOLID STATE HYBRID DRIVE

Holds both HDD (magnetic spinning disk platter) and NAND flash with
controller

SATA common drive interface

2.5 or 3.5 inch form factor

Special controllers for NAND flash and magnetic platters makes it appear to
OS as one drive (not two)
ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE CURRENT TRENDS OF DATA STORAGE

• SOLID STATE HYBRID DRIVE

Determines what data is stored in either NAND or slower platters

Quicker access

Drive learns what files are accessed frequently (FAF)

FAF automatically placed in flash memory-no user input required

ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE CURRENT TRENDS OF DATA STORAGE

• Hard drives with moving parts have been replaced by flash memory (no moving parts)
• SOLID STATE HYBRID DRIVE
Limitations-small flash memory capacity (32GB)

No immediate performance boosts from flash storage- take time to learn

what data should be put on NAND cells

Costs less than stand alone SSD drive

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE:PREDICTING COMPUTER STORAGE AND MEMORY

TRENDS
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
DATA STORAGE TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

1) HELIUM HDD

1) WHY HELIUM?:
Use less power to spin the disks.
1/7th less dense than air

Spins more easily (less resistance

compared to air) Air inside normal HDDs creates
drag on the platters (more energY
is required to spin)
Run cooler
Helium reduces the amount of
Pack in more disks. energy needed to spin platters.

Hermetically sealed during manufacturing.

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
DATA STORAGE TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

Western Digital have a 20-TB helium-filled drive

20% more efficient with nine platters
than air filled
HDDs

Higher sequential
data transfer rates
 ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

3) DNA DIGITAL STORAGE:

A DNA HDD is the size of a teaspoon

In 2012 Harvard researchers encoded DNA with:

11 JPEG images

1 HTML book containing 53.400 words

1 JavaScript program in addition.

Has a high storage density i.e. 2.2 petabytes per gram

ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

3) DNA DIGITAL STORAGE:

DNA hard drive (small as a teaspoon) can store all the world’s data on it (i.e. every
song ever composed, book ever written, video ever made etc)
ECII 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

3) DNA DIGITAL STORAGE: ADVANTAGES

Saves space

Ideal for long-term storage (DNA can exist 400,000,000 years later) current HDDs last four
years!only

Optical disks are susceptible to heat & humidity

DISADVANTAGE
Takes an extremely long time to read and write to DNA;

The technology is yet way too expensive to be usable now:

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

DATA STORAGE TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

TRENDS:
1) Cost per Capacity:- Moving from cost per Gigabytes to cost per Terabytes to cost
per petabytes to cost per zettabytes to cost per domegemegrottebyte of
capacity,

TERMINOLOGIES
1) Gigabytes

2) Terabytes

3) Petabytes (1 million GB)

4) Zettabytes (1 million PTB)

5) Domegemegrottebyte (1 million ZTB)

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE:PREDICTING COMPUTER SEMICONDUCTOR

ELECTRONIC TRENDS
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

PAST AND CURRENT PROCESSOR TRENDS

MOORE’S “LAW” 19TH CENTURY Vs MOORE’s LAW 21ST CENTURY
• Well thought out observation allowing OEM’s to pack in more power

• Now coming to an end-i.e. slowing down therefore meaning processing

power will now double once every 2.5 years
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
MOORE’S LAW GRAPH
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
MOORE’S LAW GRAPH

Original 1965 Prediction

● Timeline runs from the first development of Fairchild semiconductor lab

R&D’s groundbreaking planar manufacturing process in 1959 until 1965.

● Trend due to unit costs falling as no. of components per circuit rise,

● Economics dictates squeeze as many components (upto as 65,000) increase

on a single silicon chip)
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
MOORE’S LAW GRAPH
Moore’s Law in 21st
Century
● Recent IC chips now hold
more than 1 billion
transistors

● Growth in IC complexity
slowly coming to an end
due to:-
-Physical characteristics
of atomic structure of
ICs,

-Cost of equipment &

facilities required to
fabricate them,
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
PAST AND CURRENT PROCESSOR TRENDS

MOORE’S “LAW” 19TH CENTURY Vs MOORE’s LAW 21ST CENTURY

WHY IS IT SLOWING DOWN/ENDING?

• Processors have became smaller to accommodate more transistors.

• Result? better performance

• Side Effect? increase in temperature requiring massive cooling.

• Solution? Don’t increase clock speeds instead introduce multiple-core chips

ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society
MOORE’S LAW GRAPH
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

PROCESSOR TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

MOORE’S “LAW” 19TH CENTURY Vs MOORE’s LAW 21ST CENTURY
IS MULTI-CORE THE ANSWER?

• Multi-coring isn’t easy-the more cores there are the harder it is to operate
them

• Multiple cores require different algorithms for performance improvements

to be noticeable

• Difficult to come up with proper code that works well with all cores
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

PROCESSOR TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

MOORE’S “LAW” 19TH CENTURY Vs MOORE’s LAW 21ST CENTURY
MULTI-CORE THE ANSWER?

• Noticeable risks? In Gaming CPU performance is the most important

characteristic

• Summary:- Silicon chips can’t be clocked faster due to the laws of

physics.
UNDERSTANDING THE CORES:-HOW PROCESSORS LOOKED IN 21st
CENTURY
 UNDERSTANDING THE CORES:-INTEL FAMILY GENERATION LINE
UNDERSTANDING INTEL GENERATIONS FAMILY LINE
st
● 1 Generation Nehalem ● 5th Generation Broadwell
2010 2015
● 2nd Generation Sandy ● 6th Generation Skylake
Bridge 2015
2011 ● 7th Generation Kaby Lake
● 3rd Generation Ivy 2016
Bridge ● 8th Generation Kaby Lake ‘R’
2012 2017
● 4th Generation Haswell ● 9th Generation Coffee Lake
2013 2017
 UNDERSTANDING THE CORES:-PROCESSORS
UNDERSTANDING INTEL GENERATIONS FAMILY LINE

th
● 10 Generation Canon ● 11th Generation Tiger Lake
Lake/Ice Lake (Intel).....2019-2020
● (AMD equivalent = AMD R)
2017/2018 ● I-core 9 or i core 11,

● nanometer architecture process

of 7nm or 5nm,
● 12th Generation
Sapphire Rapids ● DDR 6 L4 or L5 Cache (RAM)
2021-? ● speed of processing 5x 10TH GEN
 PROCESSORS
UNDERSTANDING INTEL GENERATIONS FAMILY LINE
● 11th Generation Tiger Lake Intel processor
microarchitecture (Yet to be released)

Third generation 10-nm transistor

technology.

Up to 30% performance gains

compared to predecessor Cannon Lake

New L4 cache for further performance

boosts.
 PROCESSORS
UNDERSTANDING INTEL GENERATIONS FAMILY LINE
● 12th Generation Sapphire Rapids Intel
processor micro-architecture

Being planned

Possible refinement of 10-nm technology

May also be an all-new 7-nm process.

Could also introduce all-new DDR5 RAM

support
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

PROCESSOR TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

INTEL CORE FEATURES
AMD A4 AMD A5 AMD A6 AMD A9
i-3(1st edition i3, i-5 (1st edition i5, i-7 1st edition i7, i-9
2nd edition i3, 3rd 2nd edition i5, 3rd 2nd edition i7, 3rd
edition i3) edition i5) edition i7)

4 Cores 6 cores 6 cores but runs 8 cores

like 12
no hyper no hyperthreading hyper thread most expensive
threading
no turbo-boost turbo-boost turbo-boost fastest
slowest speed middle speed faster than...
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

SUMMARY:-PROCESSOR TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE

• Nearly all 2021 processors are multi-core (dual or quad)

• Improved performance of computers i.e.Reduced power

consumption and Easily process multiple tasks simultaneously
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

THE FUTURE:PREDICTING INTERNET TRENDS

ECII/ECSI/ECCI 4204 http://elearning.tukenya.ac.ke ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

NIELSEN’S LAW OF INTERNET BANDWIDTH

● High end users' bandwidth connection speed grows by 50% every

year
● 10% less than Moore's Law for computer speed

● WHY?Bandwidth grows slower than computer power:-

a. Conservatism of telecom companies,
b. User reluctance to spend money on bandwidth,
c. Broader user base (spread the cost among many users to
recover your profit-competition among telcos)
ECII 4204
MOORE’S LAW NIELSEN’S LAW
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF FUTURE COMPUTERS

1) Emerging Trend effects of computers on society: Social

and ethical issues related to A.I.
Impact on our life and society
Ethical concerns because of high accuracy or lack thereof
Deep fakes!
ECII 4204 ICT: Emerging Tech & Society

QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION

ANY
QUESTIONS
?

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