Bahrain's

Third National
Communication
Under the United Nations
Framework Convention
on Climate Change

Kingdom of Bahrain
Supreme Council for Environment

July 2020
 His Royal Highness His Majesty His Royal Highness
Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa
The Prime Minister King of The Kingdom of Bahrain The Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme
Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister
 Arab

si t y
an
Gu lf Univ
er
i

Bahrain’s Third National Communication (TNC) was coordinated by the Supreme Council
(SCE) for Environment and prepared in partnership with the United Nations Environment
Programme, West Asia Office (UNEP), with funding from the Global Environment Facility
(GEF).

An agreement with the Arabian Gulf University (AGU) and University of Bahrain (UOB)
was established to execute the technical studies. Preparation of the TNC was a national
effort with the participation of experts representing different national entities.
 Abdullah Bin Hamad AL Khalifa
President, Supreme Council for Environment
Manama- Kingdom of Bahrain

Foreword
I am pleased to present the Kingdom of Bahrain’s Third National Communication as part of
Kingdom›s commitments to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) as well as the Paris Climate Agreement.

The Kingdom of Bahrain is keen to preserve the environment and its natural resources from depletion,
as stated in its Economic Vision 2030, which encourages more sustainable sources of energy and
investment in green technologies that contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions that
cause climate change.

The Kingdom of Bahrain is a small island nation. One of the most serious threats to its development
is sea level rise due to climate change. Therefore, Bahrain has embarked on implementing its
international obligations, taking climate change into account in the formulation of policies, activities
and development plans.

The Kingdom believes that the need to respond to climate change is incumbent on all countries
under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The Paris commitments require a
common global effort at various levels and a significant flexibility on part of developed countries to
provide funding for the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and
to facilitate technology transfer to enable greenhouse gas reductions and avoid the adverse impacts
associated with climate change.

Finally, I would like to thank all ministries and national institutions that contributed to the preparation
of this report; the technical assistance provided by the Western Asia Office of the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP); and the support of international experts.

Foreword i
Table of Contents Page
FOREWORD i
LIST OF TABLES v
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF BOX x
LIST OF ACRONYMS xi
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS xiv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvi
1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1
1.1. PHYSICAL SETTING 2
1.1.1. Geography 2
1.1.2. Climate 2
1.1.3. Agriculture and land use 2
1.1.4. Energy 3
1.1.5. Water and sanitation 3
1.1.6. Terrestrial environment 4
1.1.7. Marine environment 5
1.2. SOCIAL SETTING 6
1.2.1. Population 6
1.2.2. Health 6
1.2.3. Education 7
1.2.4. Urbanization 7
1.3. ECONOMIC SETTING 7
1.3.1. Key sectors 8
1.3.2. Key economic indicators 8
1.3.3. Economic Vision 2030 9
1.3.4. Key economic challenges 9
1.4. POLICY SETTING 10
1.4.1. Sustainability 10
1.4.2. Environment 10
1.4.3. Energy 10
1.4.4. Climate change 11
1.5. LIST OF REFERENCES 12
2. GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 13
2.1. INTRODUCTION 14
2.1.1. Methodology 14
2.1.2. Assumptions 14

ii
 2.2. OVERALL RESULTS 14
2.2.1. Total GHG emissions 14
2.2.2. GHG emissions by type 15
2.2.3. GHG emissions trends 15
2.3. SECTORAL RESULTS 16
2.3.1. Energy sector 16
2.3.2. Industrial Processes & Product Use 17
2.3.3. Agriculture, forestry, other land use 17
2.3.4. Waste 18
2.4. QUALITY ASSESSMENT 18
2.4.1. Uncertainty assessment 18
2.4.2. Quality control 19
2.4.3. Key category analysis 19
2.5. CHALLENGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS 19
2.6. LIST OF REFERENCES 20
3. VULNERABILITY & ADAPTATION 21
3.1. MANGROVE HABITATS 22
3.1.1. Background 22
3.1.2. Approach 23
3.1.3. Results 23
3.1.4. Adaptation implications 26
3.2. COASTAL ZONES 26
3.2.1. Background 26
3.2.2. Approach 27
3.2.3. Results 30
3.2.4. Adaptation implications 36
3.3. WATER RESOURCES 37
3.3.1. Background 38
3.3.2. Approach 41
3.3.3. Results 44
3.3.4. Adaptation implications 47
3.4. LIST OF REFERENCES 48
4. GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION 52
4.1. BACKGROUND 53
4.1.1. Energy efficiency 53
4.1.2. Renewable energy 53

iii
 4.2. APPROACH 53
4.2.1. Analytical framework 54
4.2.2. Energy efficiency initiatives 54
4.2.3. Renewable energy initiatives 59
4.3. RESULTS 61
4.4. NEXT STEPS 61
4.4.1. Policymakers 62
4.4.2. Practitioners 63
4.4.3. Researchers 63
4.5. LIST OF REFERENCES 64
5. OTHER INFORMATION 65
5.1. RAISING AWARENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 66
5.2. EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES 66
5.2.1. Assessment of climate change coverage in science curricula 66
5.2.2. Assessment of educational materials in social sciences 67
5.2.3. Integration of climate change in practicum course 67
5.2.4. Development of educational materials 68
5.2.5. Engage female students 68
5.2.6. Recommendations 68
5.3. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER 68
5.4. LIST OF REFERENCES 69

iv
List of Tables Page

Table ES–1: GHG emissions in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) xvii

Table ES–2: Costs and benefits associated with energy efficiency and renewable energy generation targets xxi

Table 1–1: Climatic indicators for Bahrain, 1960-2017 (Source: Bahrain Ministry of Transportation and
Telecommunications) 4

Table 1–2: Inventory of desalination plants (source: Zubari, et al., 2018) 5

Table 1–3: Inventory of wastewater treatment plants (source: Zubari, et al., 2018) 5

Table 2–1: GHG emissions in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) 14

Table 2–2: GHG emissions from energy use in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) 16

Table 2–3: GHG emissions from industrial processes and product use in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) 17

Table 2–4: GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) 17

Table 2–5: GHG emissions from waste in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) 18

Table 2–6: Key Category Analysis Results 19

Table 3–1: Avicennia marina attributes 24

Table 3–2: Impact of sea level rise on Bahrain’s road network 35

Table 3–3: Assumptions underpinning the water resource adaptation policy assessment 43

Table 3–4: Reference scenario results (with and without climate change) 44

Table 4–1: Major assumptions underlying the BAU scenario in the Bahrain LEAP model 54

Table 4–2: Costs and benefits associated with energy efficiency and renewable energy generation targets 61

Table 4–3: Additional GHG reduction opportunities in Bahrain 63

Table 5–1: Framework of the public awareness programme on climate change 67

Table 5–2: Mean and standard deviation for pre- and post-test for experimental group 68

v
List of Figures
Page
Figure ES 1: Left: Overall area of sensitive land in Bahrain under range of sea level rise scenarios;
Right:Area of sensitive land by land class, island, and elevation 5 meters above and
below MSL xix

Figure ES 2: Top: Annual impacts of the integrated policies on municipal water demand; Bottom:
Cumulative impacts of the integrated water policies xx
Figure 1 1: Map of Bahrain 3
Figure 1 2: Agricultural productivity in Bahrain, 2000-2017 (Source: FAO, 2019 4
Figure 1 3: Land use patterns in Bahrain in 2015, compared with other regions
(Source: World Bank, 2019) 4
Figure 1 4: Electricity consumption levels in Bahrain, compared with other regions, 2000-2014
(Source: UNDP, 2016) 5
Figure 1 5: Mammal and plant species found in the AlAreen Wildlife Park and Reserve
(source: Bahrain’s 2016-2021 NBSAP) 5
Figure 1 6: Left: Common coral species; Right: Common finfish species associated with coral reefs in
Bahrain’ waters (source: Al-Dawood, 2018) 6
Figure 1 7: Left: Bahrain population composition, 2006-2016 (Source: IeGA, 2019); Right: Average
annual population growth in Bahrain compared to other regions (Source: UNDP, 2016) 6
Figure 1 8: Share of population by age group in Bahrain in 2015, compared with other regions
(Source: UNDP, 2016) 7
Figure 1 9: Mortality indicators in Bahrain, compared with other regions, 2015 (Source: UNDP, 2016) 7
Figure 1 10: Average literacy levels in Bahrain, compared with other regions, 2005-2015
(Source: UNDP, 2016) 7
Figure 1 11: Urbanization levels in Bahrain, compared with other regions, 2015
(Source: World Bank, 2019) 8
Figure 1 12: Sectoral composition of Bahrain GDP, 2008 & 2016 (Source: IeGA, 2019) 8
Figure 1 13: Selected macroeconomic indicators for Bahrain, 2015 (Source: IMF, 2019; Labor Market
Regulatory Authority, 2019) 8
Figure 2 1: Breakdown in GHG emissions by gas type and emitting sector and subsector, 2006 15
Figure 2 2: Trends in total GHG emissions by gas type and emitting sector 16
Figure 2 3: Breakdown of GHG emissions associated with energy activities, 2006 and 2015 16
Figure 2 4: Breakdown of GHG emissions associated with IPPU activities, 2006 and 2015 17
Figure 2 5: Breakdown of total GHG emissions associated with waste management activities,
2006 and2015 18
Figure 2 6: Breakdown of total GHG emissions associated with AFOLU activities, 2006 and 2015 18
Figure 3 1: Left: Location of Tubli Bay; Right: Mangrove stands on the east coast of Sitra Island
(Survey & Land Registration Bureau-Bahrain) 22

vi
Figure 3 2: Left: Spatial extent of mangrove areas in Tubli Bay, 2005 and 2010; Right: Percent change
in spatial extent of mangrove areas in Tubli Bay, 2005 and 2010 (source: Abido et al., 2011) 23
Figure 3 3: Top: Main islands where most of the population and urban infrastructure is located;
Right: Largely uninhabited Hawar Island group off the western coast of Qatar comprising
conservation lands (source: Aljenaid, et al., 2018) 26
Figure 3 4: Range in the IPCC’s global mean sea level rise projections in 2100 under high emission
scenarios (source: IPCC) 27
Figure 3 5: Excerpt of the reference layout of sensitive land area in northern Bahrain from the
“Bahrain Tile, SLRB2017” DGN File 28
Figure 3 6: Bahrain zoning layer, SLRB2017 with around 50 classes, Base map of LULC classification
(MEW, 2017) 28
Figure 3 7: Areas less than 5 meters above MSL. Left: Sensitive areas by LULC; Right: Sensitive areas
aggregated across coastal areas 29
Figure 3 8: Left: Overall area of sensitive land in Bahrain under range of sea level rise scenarios,
by LULC; Right: Area of sensitive land by LULC class, island, and elevation 5 meters
above and below MSL 30
Figure 3 9: Northern Bahrain Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea
level rise scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 31
Figure 3 10: Southern Bahrain Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level
rise scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 32
Figure 3 11: Muharraq Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 32
Figure 3 12: Sitra Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise scenario;
Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 33
Figure 3 13: Nabi Saleh Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 34
Figure 3 14: Umm Al Nassan Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level
rise scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 35
Figure 3 15: Top: Range of people in Bahrain impacted by sea level rise, 2050 and 2100; Bottom:
Share of land and people in Bahrain impacted by sea level rise, 2050 and 2100 36
Figure 3 16: Hawar Island Group results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class 36
Figure 3 17: Bahrain’s groundwater system (Zubari, et al., 1997) 38
Figure 3 18: Left: Groundwater table elevation contour map for Khobar zone in 2015 in units of meters
relative to mean sea level; Right: Salinity contour map for the Khobar zone in 2015 in units
of mg of total dissolved solids per liter (Source: Zubari, 2018 (contour maps prepared by
Zubari; well data obtained from MEW)) 38

vii
Figure 3 19: Profile of municipal water supply in Bahrain, 1980-2015 (Source: EWA) 39
Figure 3 20: Amounts of wastewater received in Tubli WPCC, tertiary treated, reused, and discharged
to the sea, 2000-2015 (data source: Sanitation Directorate, Ministry of Works,
Municipalities and Urban Planning) 40
Figure 3 21: Left: Average daily water consumption in the municipal sector, 1979-2015;
Middle: Average per capita daily consumption in the municipal sector, 1980-2015;
Right: Average annual municipal water quality, 1985-2016 (source: EWA) 40
Figure 3 22: Agricultural sector water consumption, 1979-2015 (source: Ministry of Municipalities
Affairs and Urban Planning) 41
Figure 3 23: Water use in industrial sector by source, 2015 (source: EWA) 42
Figure 3 24: Conceptual WEAP Model for water resources system in Bahrain 42
Figure 3 25: Schedule for strengthening water block tariffs in Bahrain for non-household users.
(Source: National Energy Efficiency Action Plan) 43
Figure 3 26: Cumulative impacts of climate change relative to the Reference scenario 45
Figure 3 27: Top: Annual impacts of the per capita water demand reduction policy on municipal water
demand; Bottom: Cumulative impacts of the per capita water demand reduction policy 45
Figure 3 28: Top: Annual impacts of the leakage reduction policy on municipal water demand;
Bottom: Cumulative impacts of the leakage reduction policy 46
Figure 3 29: Top: Annual impacts of the integrated policies on municipal water demand; Bottom:
Cumulative impacts of the integrated policies 47
Figure 4 1: Top: Energy efficiency measures by sector considered in the GHG mitigation assessment;
Bottom: Annual primary energy savings for all initiatives (adapted from SEU, 2017a) 55
Figure 4 2: Top: Target residential & commercial primary energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs
and benefits associated with target primary energy savings in residential &
commercial sectors 55
Figure 4 3: Top: Target governmental primary energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits
associated with target primary energy savings in government sector 56
Figure 4 4: Top: Target industrial sector primary energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits
associated with target primary energy savings in industrial sector 56
Figure 4 5: Top: Target electric sector energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated
with target primary energy savings in power supply sector 57
Figure 4 6: Top: Target transport sector energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated
with target primary energy savings in transport sector 58
Figure 4 7:
Top: Target cross-cutting energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated
with target primary energy savings for cross-cutting initiatives
59

viii
Figure 4 8: Policy-induced renewable electricity penetration levels considered in the GHG mitigation
assessment (adapted from SEU, 2017b) 59
Figure 4 9: Top: Assumed renewable capacity expansion plan; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated
with target renewable energy generation 60
Figure 4 10: Top: Annual change in primary energy use in the combined scenario;
Bottom: Annual CO2e reductions in the combined scenario 62

ix
List of Box Page
Box 3–1: Land use and land cover categories 29

x
List of acronyms
°C degree Celsius
AFOLU agriculture, forestry and other land use
AGU Arabian Gulf University
ALBA Aluminum Bahrain
BAPCO Bahrain Petroleum Company
BAU Business-As-Usual
bcf billion cubic feet
BCM billion cubic meters
BDFH Bahrain Defense Force Hospital
BTEA Bahrain Tourism and Exhibitions Authority
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CH4 methane
cm centimeter (hundredths of a meter)
CO2 carbon dioxide
CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent
DEM Digital Elevation Model
ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute
EWA Electricity and Water Authority
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GAP Government action plan
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GCPMREW General Commission for the Protection of Marine. Resources, Environment & Wildlife
GDP gross domestic product
Gg gigagram (billion grams)
GHG greenhouse gas
gm grams
GPIC Gulf Petrochemicals Industries Company
GW gigawatt (billion watts)
GWh Gigawatt-hours (billion watt-hours)
GWP global warming potential
HDR Human Development Report
HFCs hydrofluorocarbons
ICT Information and Communication Technologies
IeGA Information and e-Government Authority

xi
IMF International Monetary Fund
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPPU industrial processes and product use
IWRM integrated water resource management
kg kilogram
KHUH King Hamad University Hospital
km kilometer
km2 square kilometers
kTOE thousand tonnes of oil equivalent
kWh kilowatt-hours (thousand watt-hours)
l liter
LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning
LED light emitting diode
LNG liquified natural gas
LULC land use land cover
m2 square meter
m3 cubic meter
m3/d cubic meter per day
MED Multi-Effect Distillation
MENA Middle East and North Africa
MEPS minimum energy performance standards
mg milligram (thousandths of a gram)
mm millimeter
Mm3 million cubic meters
MoH Ministry of Health
MoW Ministry of Works
MSF multi-stage flash
MSL mean sea level
MSR mangrove submerged roots
MW megawatts (million watts)
N2O nitrous oxide
NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan
NEEAP National Energy Efficiency Action Plan
NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan
NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

xii
PCPMREW Public Commission for the Protection of Marine Resources, Environment and Wildlife
PFCs perfluorocarbons
PV photovoltaic
QA quality assurance
QC quality control
R&D research and development
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
RO reverse osmosis
SCE Supreme Council for the Environment
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
SEU Sustainable Energy Unit
SF6 sulfur hexafluoride
SIDS Small Island Developing State
SLRB Survey & Land Registration Bureau-Bahrain
T&D transmission & distribution
TDS total dissolved solids
TIFF Tagged Image File Format
TRIPS Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights
TWh Terawatt-hours (billion watt-hours)
UAE United Arab Emirates
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UoB University of Bahrain
USEIA US Energy Information Administration
UTM Universal Transverse Mercator
WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning model
WHO World Health Organization
WPCC Water Pollution Control Center

xiii
List of Contributors
Guidance and Oversight
●● Eng. Suzan Alajjawi, Acting Director, Environmental Policies & Planning, Supreme Council for Environment
(SCE)
●● Dr. Abdul-Majeid Haddad, Deputy Regional Director, UN Environment (UNEP), West Asia Office
●● Dr. Yousef Meslmani, Climate Change Programme Management Officer and Regional Coordinator, UN
Environment, West Asia Office, UNE

Technical Coordinators
●● Eng. Abdulla Abbad, Senior Environmental Specialist, SCE
●● Eng. Noor Ebrahim, Environmental Specialist, SCE

National Circumstances and other information:

●● Dr. Omar AlObaidly, National Consultant.
●● Dr. Thamer Aldawood, Marine Biology, Natural resources and Environment, Arabian Gulf University (AGU)
●● Dr. Randah R. Hamadeh, Professor, Department of Family and Community Medicine and Vice Dean for
Graduate Studies and Research, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Dr. Ahmed Jaradat, Associate Professor, Department of Family and Community Medicine, College of
Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Dr. Haitham Jahrami, Assistant Professor, Department of Psychiatry, College of Medicine and Medical
Sciences, AGU
●● Dr. Adel Al Sayyad, Associate Professor, Department of Family and Community Medicine, College of
Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Dr. Huda Omran, Research Assistant, Office of the Vice Dean for Graduate Studies and Research, College of
Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Mr. Mohamed Jailani, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Mr. Khaled Seyadi, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Ms. Suha Sufian, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, AGU
●● Dr. Waleed K. Zubari, Water Resources Management; Coordinator, Water resources Management Program,
AGU

GHG Inventory and Mitigation:

●● Dr. Maha Mahmood Alsabbagh, Assistant Professor - Department of Natural Resources and Environment,
AGU
●● Dr. Waheeb Alnaser, Professor of applied Physics, Dept. of Physics, College of Science, University of Bahrain
(UoB)
●● Dr. Ahmed Abdulla, Professor of Heat Engines, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering,
UoB
●● Dr. Omar Alabbasi, Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, UoB
●● Dr. Hanan Albuflasa, Assistant Professor of renewable energy, Dept. of Physics - College of Science, UoB
●● Dr. Shaker Haji, Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, UoB
●● Dr. Khalil Ebrahim Jassim, Assistant Professor of Photonics, Dept. of Physics, College of Science, UoB

xiv
●● Dr. Qais Buali, Assistant Professor of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, UoB
●● Dr. Khadija Zainal, Associate Professor of Marine Biology and Ecology, Dept. of Biology, College of Science,
UoB
●● Dr. Sadeq AlAlawi, Assistant Professor of Physical Chemistry, Dept. of Chemistry , College of Science, UoB
●● Dr. Humood Nasser, Associate Professor of Environmental Biology, Dept. of Biology, College of Science,
UoB
●● Dr. Hesham AlAmmal, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, College of Information Technology, UoB

Vulnerability and adaptation:

●● Dr. Sabah S. Aljenaid, GIS & Environment; Head of Geoinformatics Department, AGU
●● Dr. Mohammad S. Abido, Ecology and Biodiversity; Chairman of Natural resources and Environment, AGU
●● Dr. Waleed K. Zubari, Water Resources Management; Coordinator, Water resources Management Program,
AGU
●● Ms. Ghadeer M. Khadem, GIS Specialist, Geoinformatics Department, AGU
●● Dr. Ahmed O. El-Kholei, Urban Planning, and Environmental, Department of Natural Resources and
Environment, AGU
●● Mr. Mohamed J. Alaradi, Civil Engineer, Department of Technical Services, Sanitation Affairs, Ministry of
Works, Municipalities Affairs, and Urban Planning, Kingdom of Bahrain
●● Mr. Ali H. AlShaabani, Hydrogeology, Department of Agricultural Engineering and Water Resources,
Agricultural Affairs, Ministry of Works, Municipalities Affairs, and Urban Planning, Kingdom of Bahrain

Other information
●● Dr. Fatima Ahmed Al-jassim, Gifted education, Department of Gifted Education, AGU
●● Dr.Huda Soud AlHendal, Gifted education, Department of Gifted Education, AGU
●● Dr. Najat Sulaiman ALHamdan, Gifted education, Department of Gifted Education, AGU
●● Dr. Mariam E. Al-Shirawi, Special education, Department of Special education, AGU
●● Dr. Ahmed Mohamed D. Abdulla, Gifted Education, Department of Gifted Education, AGU
●● Dr. Asma A. Abahussain, Geology and Geochemistry, AGU
●● Dr. Ahmed O. El-Kholei, Urban Planning, and Environmental, Department of Natural Resources and
Environment, AGU
●● Ms. Mariam Alathim, Senior Environmental Specialist, SCE
●● Dr. Odeh Aljayyousi, Head of Innovation and Technology Management Department, AGU
●● Dr. Yas Alsultanny, Computer Engineering, Innovation and Technology Management Department, AGU
●● Dr. Soud Almahamid, Business Administration, Innovation and Technology Management Department, AGU
●● Dr. Andri Mirzal, Information Technology and Communication, Innovation and Technology Management
Department, AGU
●● Dr. Afaf Bugawa, Information Technology and Communication, Innovation and Technology Management
Department, AGU

International Experts:
●● Eng. Mohammed Yagan, Freelance consultant (GHG inventory), Amman, Jordan
●● Dr. William W. Dougherty, technical reviewer and editor, Climate Change Research Group, Boston, USA

xv
Executive summary
Bahrain is a small island developing state (SIDS) In 2017. Bahrain began construction of the Middle
situated in the west central part of the Arabian Gulf, East’s first liquified natural gas (LNG) receiving and
about 25 km east of Saudi Arabia. Total land area is regasification terminal off shore Hidd Industrial Area
currently about 780 km2, with a mostly flat, gently on Muharraq Island. When complete, the facility will
rolling topography and a total coastline of 946 km. help Bahrain meet increasing demand for natural gas
for industrial and urban development.
National circumstances Five power stations with a combined installed capacity
Bahrain’s coastline and land area have evolved
of 3.9 GW account for Bahrain electric generation.
considerably over the last 30 years due to a series
Electricity consumption per capita is high, and is
of land reclamation projects, which continue to the
driven in large part by air conditioning demand.
present day. Roughly, 111 km2 of reclaimed land has
been added since 1980, accounting for about 15% of Bahrain is a highly water stressed country from a
its current total land area. freshwater resource availability perspective. There are
only 3 cubic meters (m3) of renewable groundwater
Bahrain is an arid country with mild, pleasant winters, per capita, compared to a world average of 6,000 m3
and summers that are very hot and humid. Rainfall per capita. Rising population combined with high
is negligible from April through the end of October, consumption patterns have led to the gradual depletion
coinciding with high temperatures. Relative humidity of groundwater sources.
is highest during the winter months of December
through February, although other months of the year Water supply is provided by high-cost desalinated
show only slightly lower levels. water produced using energy-intensive thermal and
membrane-based technologies Water demand is
Bahrain enjoys a rich social milieu, with diverse very high on a per capita basis, about 500 liters per
communities living side by side in primarily high- person per day. The municipal distribution network
density urban contexts throughout the island. Several meets demand mostly for households, businesses,
key aspects of the Bahrain social fabric are described and government buildings and accounts for 60% of
in the subsections that follow. In 2019, total population all water consumption. The balance is satisfied by
is approximately 1.5 million with roughly half of the groundwater extraction or on-site desalination.
population comprised of visiting expatriates who
come to pursue work opportunities. Most of the A desert environment dominates Bahrain’s terrestrial
population is centered in the capital, Al Manamah landscape, except for a narrow fertile strip that is found
and other major urban centers like Al Muharraq, along the northern and northwestern coastlines. The
Ar Rifa’and Hamad Town. desert is home to many types of insects, reptiles, birds
and wild mammals. As a step in preserving terrestrial
Agriculture accounts for only 0.3% of gross domestic biodiversity, the AlAreen Wildlife Park and Reserve
product (GDP) and production consists mainly of was established in 1976 to provide a refuge for the
fruits, vegetables, poultry, dairy products, shrimp, and endangered species and their breeding habitats, as well
fish, all of which is for domestic consumption. Low as an educational center to learn about local wildlife.
agricultural productivity is a function of both limited
arable land - only 2.1% of the land is arable - and the The marine environment is characterized high rates of
hyper arid climate. evaporation during most of the year and a shortage
of freshwater input. The most vital marine habitats
Bahrain produces around 42,000 barrels of oil a day. are mangrove and seagrass beds in the intertidal
It also receives 50% of the revenues associated with regions and coral reefs in the subtidal regions. Coastal
the approximately 300,000 barrels per day produced in development projects have significantly reduced the
the Saudi operated Abu Sa’fa oil field which is situated area of these natural resources, a situation that has
on the maritime border between Saudi Arabia and led to efforts to restore habitats in the vicinity of
Bahrain. reclaimed lands.

xvi Executive summary

Bahrain enjoys a modern, high-quality healthcare One notable example of a new institution is the
system. Infant mortality in Bahrain is very low, as is Sustainable Energy Center (previously Sustainable
mortality among children under 5 years of age. Life Energy unit), launched in 2014. The Unit was a
expectancy is marginally better than the Arab world, joint project with the United Nations Development
and marginally worse than the world average. There is Program (UNDP) and focuses on developing policies
also high literacy for males and females, due in large to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy,
part to high enrollment rates across preschool and with associated benefits such as reducing carbon
tertiary educational systems. Average literacy rates emissions and improving local air quality. Upscaled
among adults exceed rates in SIDS, Arab states, and from unit to an organ of the government, the center
the World. has launched two major initiatives, namely the National
Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) and the
Bahrain has a relatively open economy. With a per National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP).
capita income of over $22,000 in 2016, it is classified
by the World Bank as a high-income economy.
In 2016, Bahrain’s real GDP was approximately
Greenhouse gas inventory
Table ES-1 presents total greenhouse gases (GHG)
US$ 31.4 billion at market exchange rates, up from
emissions and sinks for the year 2006. Total GHG
US$ 23.8 billion in 2008, an average annual growth rate emissions in 2006 were 29,153 Gg CO2-equivalent
of about 3.6%. The largest share of GDP, about one
(CO2e), which includes 20,149 Gg from energy;
fifth, comes from the mining and quarrying sector, of 8,704 Gg from industrial processes and product use
which oil and gas operations account for most of the (IPPU); and 268 Gg from waste. CO2e emissions from
contribution, about 97%.
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
were about 33 Gg, which after accounting for carbon
In concert with other Gulf countries, Bahrain has been
sinks in managed green spaces and parks totaled 8 Gg.
active in exploring economic diversification strategies
Net national emissions in 2006 were 29,129 Gg, after
to wean the economy away from oil dependency.
accounting for these carbon sinks.
In 2008, the Economic Vision 2030 initiative was
launched with a goal of a diversified and dynamic
Energy-related activities (Activities of oil sector and
economy, including diversified energy sources. The
electricity sector and transportation sector) accounted
Vision has three guiding principles: sustainability,
for the dominant portion of GHG emissions in
competitiveness, and fairness. The vision is distinct
Bahrain in 2006. Approximately 69% of all GHG
from previous diversification efforts across the Gulf emissions are associated with the combustion of fossil
due to its comprehensive and strategic nature. fuels or the release of fugitive emissions. Industrial
processes and product use accounted for about 30% of
Policymaking relevant to climate change takes place at all GHG emissions, followed by the waste sector that
multiple levels. At the multilateral/international level, accounted for about 1% of total emissions. Emissions
Bahrain is party to many international conventions, from agricultural and land use activities are negligible,
including the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, the less than 0.2% of total national emissions.
Paris Agreement, the Montreal Protocol on ozone
depletion, and the 2013 Beijing Amendment to the
Montreal Protocol. At the national level, Bahrain has
been active in forming new institutions to take the
lead in formulating policy relative to sustainability, the
environment, energy, and climate change.
Table ES–1: GHG emissions and sinks in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg)
CO2
GHG Sources CO2e Emissions Sinks CH4 N2O PFCs HFCs SF6
1 Energy 20,149 19,686 0 16.7 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Industrial processes and product use 8,704 2,004 0 0.9 0.0 0.81 0.03 0.00
3 Agriculture, forestry and other land 8 7 -25 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
use
4 Waste 268 0 0 9.9 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total National Emissions 29,153 21,697 --- 28.5 0.3 0.81 0.03 0.00
Total Net Emissions 29,129 21,697 -25 28.5 0.3 0.81 0.03 0.00

Energy-related activities accounted for the compounded by frequent illegal dumping of

municipal solid wastes by tankers.
dominant portion of GHG emissions in
Bahrain in 2006. Approximately 69% of all These factors have led to the loss of about axvii
GHG emissions are associated with the third of total mangrove area in Tubli Bay;
GHG emission inventories were also prepared for the a potentially high impact from sea level rise due to the
years 2007 to 2015, inclusive. Over this period, total inability of landward migration, which also severely
emissions have increased by about 37%; from 29,153 limits mangrove forest adaptive capacity. Combined,
Gg CO2e in 2006 to about 39,902 Gg CO2e in 2015, or these factors suggest a high level of vulnerability of
roughly 3.5%/year. Emissions of CO2 are increasing climate change in the absence of specific adaptation
slightly above this rate, 4.0% per year. Notably, HFC initiatives.
emissions are experiencing the highest levels of annual
growth in Bahrain, roughly 33% per year. Various services are provided by Tubli mangroves,
namely ecotourism, coastal protection, habitats for
Vulnerability and adaptation - fisher and bird species. Of these, the ecotourism
component has been quantified to date. Based on
mangrove habitats current pricing, visitor patterns, projected operating
Dense grey mangrove forests are found in the Gulf days, and other factors the annual monetary value of
of Tubli, a sheltered and shallow bay with extensive tourism services provided by Tubli Bay mangroves
intertidal mudflats on the eastern side of the main is around US$ 33,000/year. This estimate is likely to
island of Bahrain. Changing conditions in the Arabian increase over time as plans to protect Bay waters are
Gulf pose incremental threats to these mangrove implemented and infrastructure to support ecotouristic
stands. activities is built.
Three main anthropogenic factors have adversely
impacted Bahrain’s mangrove forests, leading to Vulnerability and adaptation -
sharp reductions in their spatial extent and health. coastal zones
These include extensive land reclamation slurry Sea level rise is one of the primary and most certain
discharge from nearby sand washing plants and treated consequences of climate change. As with all small
wastewater. These impacts are further compounded island developing states, it represents an almost
by frequent illegal dumping of municipal solid wastes existential risk to the coastlines of the six major islands
by tankers. on which most of its population and infrastructure are
located. These coastal areas, less than 5 meters above
These factors have led to the loss of about a third of current sea levels, have very high population densities.
total mangrove area in Tubli Bay; from 150 hectares in
1980 to about 100 hectares in 1992. In response, Tubli The objective of the coastal zone vulnerability
Bay was declared nationally as a protected area in 1995 assessment was to quantify the extent of seawater
and Law 53/2006 designated Tubli Bay as a natural inundation by land type and location for a set of
reserve. In 1997, it was designated internationally as a plausible sea level rise scenarios for the years 2050
RAMSAR Site. Today, only 31 hectares remain. and 2100. The study area consisted of all land area
from the coastline to inland areas up to 5 meters above
The impact of climate change on mangroves in Tubli mean sea level (MSL) for seven distinct land segments,
Bay was evaluated using a 3-part methodology. First, a namely Northern Bahrain, Southern Bahrain,
preliminary qualitative assessment was undertaken to Muharraq, Sitra, Nabih Saleh, Umm Al Nassan, and
gain a better understanding of the factors that affect the Hawar Islands. A 3-part methodology was applied
mangrove vulnerability to climate change. Second, that included data acquisition, data preprocessing, and
biological characteristics of Tubli Bay mangroves were seawater inundation modeling.
assembled from available studies to provide baseline
information. Third, an economic valuation of the Figure ES-1 summarizes the extent of seawater
services and goods provided by Bahraini mangroves inundation under the various scenarios for all of
was undertaken to better understand the benefits Bahrain. The results confirm that the country is
provided by mangroves within an economic context. highly sensitive to sea level rise. Significant inundation
impacts are projected for certain land use categories,
The assessment found that the Bay has high exposure even at small levels of rising seas. Some key national
to climate change impacts, especially sea level rise. implications of the assessment are outlined in the
The Avicennia marina specie found in the Bay displays bullets that follow.
high sensitivity to prolonged seawater flooding that
would be associated with future sea level rise. There is ●● Wetlands are projected to experience significant

xviii
 inundation. Approximately 27 km2, or nearly half in certain sectors. Bahrain’s building codes enacted
of all wetlands in Bahrain would be inundated in 2009 call for the height of the ground floor of a
if sea levels rise by up to 0.5 meters, with nearly new building being 1.5 meters above the level of the
three quarters lost if sea levels rise by up to 1.5 pavement surface. However, much remains to be done
meters.
protection, habitats for fisher and bird inNabih
BahrainSaleh,
to ensure
Ummclimate resilience.
Al Nassan, andInthe
the near-
species. Of these, the ecotourism component term, the focus should be on increasing
Hawar Islands. A 3-part methodology was institutional
●● Onlyhasmodest areas of reclamation
been quantified to date. Based lands
onwould
currentbe capacity
applied to
thatincorporate sea acquisition,
included data level rise risks
data within
affected withvisitor
pricing, small patterns,
amounts projected
of sea level rise. Of
operating development
preprocessing,planning
and seawater inundation
days,of
the total and50other
km2 of factors the annual
reclaimed monetary
land, only about modeling.
2% value
(1 kmof) tourism
2
would be services provided
inundated by meters,
at 0.5 Tubli
but Bay
nearly mangroves
30% (14 km is around
2
) wouldUS$ 33,000/year.
be inundated at 2
Vulnerability and adaptation
Figure ES-1 summarizes -
the extent of
seawaterresources
water inundation under the various
Thisofestimate
meters sea level is likely
rise. to increase over time as scenarioschange
Climate for all of willBahrain. The results
exacerbate an already
plans to protect Bay waters are implemented
confirm that the country is highly sensitive to
and infrastructure
●● Built-up areas in Bahrain to support
are bestecotouristic
situated to unsustainable water supply and demand situation. Sea
sea level rise. Significant inundation impacts
activities is built.
withstand sea level rise. Less than 2% (2 km2) level rise could lead to seawater intrusion into fresh
are projected for certain land use categories,
would be inundated up to 1 meter of sea level rise groundwater
even at smalllenses
levelsand adverse
of rising seas.impacts on inlets/
Some key
Vulnerability and adaptation – coastal zones outlets of implications
desalinationofplants. Lower precipitation
and only 10% (13 km2) of these lands would be national the assessment are
Sea level
inundated uprise
to is one of the
2 meters of primary
sea levelandrisemost could lead to lower groundwater
outlined in the bullets that follow. recharge rates. Higher
certain consequences of climate change. As temperatures could deepen the already unsustainable
with all small island developing states, that
it § Wetlands
levels are projected
of groundwater to experience
use by agriculture, households,
●● Industrial areas are somewhat more sensitive significant inundation. Approximately 27
represents an almost existential
built-up areas to withstand sea level rise. About risk to the and businesses. The main management challenge is
coastlines of the six major islands on which km2, or nearly half of all wetlands in
15% (4 km2) of these lands would be inundated how to balance decreasing water supply and increasing
most of its population and infrastructure are Bahrain would be inundated if sea levels
with 2 meters of sea level rise, with under 3% water
riseuse
by inupthe context
to 0.5 of with
meters, a changing climate.
nearly three
located. These coastal areas, less than 5
(1 kmmeters above with
2
) inundated current1 meter of sea level
sea levels, have rise.
very quarters lost if sea levels rise by up to 1.5
Themeters.
objective of the was vulnerability assessment was
high population densities. to quantify the impact of climate change on Bahrain’s
●● All land use categories are severely affected under § Only municipal
modest areas
The sea
the high objective
level rise of scenariothe ofcoastal
5 meters.zoneThe sensitive waterofsupply-demand
reclamation lands
equilibrium
vulnerability assessment was to quantify the would be affected with small amounts of
airport would be completely inundated while and to quantify the costs and benefits 2of specific
extent of seawater inundation by land type sea level rise. Of the total of 50 km of
wetlands, reclaimed lands, and industrial areas adaptation initiatives (i.e., per capita use reduction,
and location for a set of plausible sea level reclaimed land, only about 2% (1 km2)
would leakage
wouldreduction). A representation
be inundated of thebut
at 0.5 meters, municipal
riselose at least 94%
scenarios for the of their
yearstotal
2050area.
andBuilt-up
2100. water system was developed using Water Evaluation
areasThe
would experience a loss of 74%
study area consisted of all land area from of its total nearly 30% (14 km ) would be inundated at
2

area.the
Ofcoastline
the totaltosensitive land area of5470 km2, And2 meters
Planningof (WEAP) software for the 2015-2035
sea level rise.
inland areas up to meters period. A scenario-based analytical framework was
onlyabove
72 km2mean (15%)sea would levelnot(MSL)
be underfor water
sevenas § Built-up areas inscenario,
Bahrain climate
are bestchange
situatedscenario,
thesedistinct
areas are above 5 meters above MSL. applied (Reference
land segments, namely Northern to withstand sea level rise. Less than 2% (2
adaptation scenario). The first initiative aims to
Bahrain, Southern Bahrain, Muharraq, Sitra, km2) would be inundated up to 1 meter of
Some adaptation measures have already taken place achieve a 33% reduction in per capita municipal water

Figure ES-1: Left: Overall area of sensitive land in Bahrain under range of sea level rise scenarios; Right:
Area of sensitive land by land class, island, and elevation 5 meters above and below MSL
x|Page
xix
demand, from the current
present valuelevel
costofsavings
183 toto122 themeconomy,
3
per
person per yeartotaling
by 2035. aboutTheUS$ second initiative aims
1.7 billion.
to reduce leakage in the water distribution network to
§ Impact
achieve reductions of leakage
of 22% of annualreductions: Under RCP8.5
water production
by 2035 relativeassumptions,
to water production reducing pipeline
in that year undernetwork
leakage
business-as-usual conditions.by 22% will lead to a cumulative
reduction of 18 TWh of fossil-fired
electricity, which would avoid 12 million
The results of the assessment make clear that
tonnes of CO2e. These benefits would
significant watercome
demand at areductions
significantare possible
present value and cost
therefore it is imperative
savings to the foreconomy,
Bahrain to formulate
totaling aboutaUS$
clear comprehensive national
1.2 billion. water policy and strategy
based on integrated water resource management
§ ImpactHighlights
(IWRM) principles. of both areinitiatives:
summarized Figure
in theES-2
summarizes the impact of combining both
bullets below.
initiatives. The top figure shows municipal
water consumption in 2035 is about 4%
●● Impact of climate
less change:
than 2015Under RCP8.5
levels, and assumptions,
about 47% lower
there wouldthan
be a what
cumulative
it would increase of 593beGWh
otherwise in 2035.
of natural gas-fired electricity, which
The bottom figure shows cumulative would leadlevels
to an additional 385 thousand
for total water use, wastewater tonnes of CO 2
e.
These impacts would also come brine
generation/treatment, at a significant
discharge, and
present valuedesalinated water production are
cost to the economy, totaling about about Figure ES-2: Top: Annual impacts of the integrated
27% lower
US$ 38.7 million. Thethan Reference
impacts under scenario
RCP4.5 levels. policies on municipal water demand; Bottom:
Combining
would be about both ofinitiatives
one-fifth will lead to a Cumulative impacts of the integrated water policies
these impacts.
cumulative reduction of 40 TWh of fossil-
●● Impact of fired electricity
per capita requirements,
reductions: Under which RCP8.5 would levels. Combining
Modeling both initiatives
Bahrain’s water system will lead to a
would
assumptions, avoid 26 million
reducing tonneswater
per capita of CO 2e. These
demand benefit from
cumulative usingof stochastic
reduction 40 TWh ofmethods natural togas-
benefits better understand uncertainty and integrating
by 33% will lead towould come reduction
a cumulative at a significantof fired electricity requirements, which would avoid
present value cost savings to the economy, 26 previous
million groundwater
tonnes of CO e. modeling
These into would
benefits the
26 TWh of natural gas-fired electricity and avoid 2
totaling about US$ 2.6 billion. WEAP model.
come at a significant present value cost savings to
17 million tonnes of CO2e emissions. In addition,
A clear,
there would comprehensive,
be a cumulative reduction and of
integrated
5.1 BCMwater the economy, totaling about US$ 2.6 billion.
Greenhouse gas mitigation
of brine resources
discharge policy will be required
to surrounding to achieve
Gulf waters.
Launched in 2017, the National Energy
the above
These benefits comebenefits.
at aInstitutional present that A clear, comprehensive, and integrated water resources
significant reforms
policy Efficiency
will Action
be required Plan the
to achieve lays above
out benefits.
22 a
value costbuild
savingsupon to the reactivation
the economy, of theabout
totaling National
comprehensive
Water Resources Council in 2016 are Institutional reforms that build upon the reactivation set of initiatives to increase
US$ 1.7 billion.
essential. of the energy
Nationalefficiency potentialCouncil
Water Resources in Bahrain. Theare
in 2016
Plan
essential. identifies 22 new initiatives across all
●● Impact ofFurtherleakage deterioration
reductions: Under of groundwater
RCP8.5 sectors to achieve a reduction in energy use
resources
assumptions, reducing should
pipeline networkbe addressed
leakage by by of 6% by 2025 relative to average energy use
establishing a cooperation
22% will lead to a cumulative reduction of 18 mechanism
TWh Further deterioration of groundwater resources
over the period 2009-2013.
of naturalbetween
gas-firedBahrain
electricity,andwhichSaudiwould
Arabia avoidin the should be addressed by establishing a cooperation
Launched in the same year, the National
12 milliondevelopment
tonnes of CO2e.and benefits would of mechanism between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in
These management
Renewableand Energy Action of Plan identified
come at atransboundary
significant present groundwater
value cost savings resources,
to the development
feasible resources,
management
solar, wind including
transboundary
and biogas groundwater
renewable
including groundwater artificial groundwater
the economy, totaling about US$ 1.2 billion. energy options for Bahrain, establishing a
recharge/storage enhancement using surplus artificial recharge/storage enhancement using surplus
tertiary treated wastewater.
●● Impact of both initiatives: Figure ES-2 summarizes tertiarynational
treated renewable
wastewater.energy target of 5% of
peak capacity by 2025 and 10% by 2035,
the impactGoing forward,both
of combining it will be important
initiatives. The top to relative to the projected peak capacities in
expand
figure shows waterwater
municipal sector coverage beyond
consumption in 2035 the Going those forward, it will be important to expand water
years. On an electric generation basis,
municipal
is about 4% less thansector,
2015 levels,in and orderabout to 47% capture sector this coverage
amounts beyond the municipal
to 478 GWh and 1,456 GWh sector,of in
opportunities for efficiency
lower than what it would otherwise be in 2035. and conservation order to capture opportunities for efficiency and
in the agricultural and industrial sectors. conservation in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
The bottom figure shows cumulative levels for
total water use, wastewater generation/treatment, xii | P abenefit
ge
brine discharge, and desalinated water production Modeling Bahrain’s water system would
are about 27% lower than Reference scenario from using stochastic methods to better understand

xx
uncertainty and integrating previous groundwater
renewable electricity by 2025 and 2035, Table ES–2: Costs and benefits associated with energy
modeling into the WEAP model. efficiency and renewable energy generation targets
respectively.
CO2e reductions Cost of Saved
Considered individually or together, the (million tonnes) Costs Carbon (2015
Greenhouse gasestablished
initiatives mitigation under the energy In In 2015- (million PV US$/tCO2e
Launched in efficiency
2017, theand National Energy
renewable PlansEfficiency
will lead to
Scenario 2025 2030 2030 2015 US$) saved)
Energy
Action Plan significant
lays out 22 a comprehensive
levels of annual avoided set CO
of 2e efficiency
1.2 1.2 12.8 -926 -72

initiatives to emissions.
increase energy efficiency
Given the potential
prominence in
of energy Renewable
0.3 0.7 3.9 -123 -32
energy
Bahrain. The inPlan identifies 22 new initiatives
the GHG emission profile, the scope ofacross Combined
all sectors to the
achieve
GHG a reduction in energy
mitigation use offocused
assessment 6% efficiency & 1.5 1.9 16.7 -1,050 -63
renewable
on to
by 2025 relative these plansenergy
average exclusively.
use over the period
2009-2013. Three scenarios were considered: a
substantial cost sample
of the study savings believed
to society.thatThe thenet present
climate
Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario assuming value
hadof cost changed
actually savings and from85%energy
consideredefficiency
the
Launched in pre-Plans
the same year, the National
conditions; Renewable
an energy efficiency climate change
investments is nearlyphenomenon
US$ 1 billion, to be severe
roughly 8 times
Energy Action Plan identified
scenario; a renewablefeasible
energy solar, wind
scenario; and a thatand
of deserved
renewable to energy.
be addressed. Most believed
and biogas renewable energy options for
combined scenario considering both energy Bahrain,
that climate change is due to human causes
establishing aefficiency initiativesenergy
national renewable and renewable
target of 5% energy. due to thecarbon: increased concentration of
●● Costs of avoiding While both energy efficiency
The Long-range Energy
of peak capacity by 2025 and 10% by 2035, relative Alternatives
Planning (LEAP) modeling tool was andgreenhouse
renewable gases energyininvestments
the atmosphere. reduce carbon
to the projected peak capacities in those years. Onused
an to
estimate emissions while also
Other major findings include thereducing costs,needenergy
to
electric generation basis,future annual toenergy
this amounts 478 GWh savings,
incremental costs, and by CO2025
2e emission efficiency
make is roughly
better use 2.3
of times
social more
media cost-effective
to build
and 1,456 GWh of renewable electricity and
reductions. perawareness,
unit of carbon as well as print and televised
avoided.
2035, respectively.
media, including the use of slogans. Based on
Table ES-2 provides an overall summary of these findings, a climate change awareness
the costs and
Considered individually or benefits
together,associated with the Other
the initiatives planinformation
was developed that specified activities,
energy
established under efficiency
the energy and renewable
efficiency and renewable energy Public target
awareness of climate
groups, inputwas assessed through
requirements, and a
Plans will leadinitiatives of thelevels
to significant Plans.ofThe following
annual avoidedbullets survey. institutional
Findings showed roles. that 88% of the study sample
CO2e emissions.highlight
Given keythefindings:
prominence of energy believed that the climate had actually changed and
in the GHG§ CO emission profile, the scope of the The degreethe
85% considered to which
climateclimate
changechange is part of to
phenomenon
2e reductions: The 22 energy efficiency early grade education was evaluated through
GHG mitigation assessment
initiatives focused
provide moston of these plans
the cumulative be severe and deserved to be addressed. Most believed
a series of studies. The core finding is that
exclusively. emission reductions, about 77%, over 3 that climate change is due to human causes due to the
climate change concepts have thus far not
times the cumulative emission reductions increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the
been largely incorporated into science and
Three scenarios from renewable
were energyainitiatives.
considered: Business-As- atmosphere.
social science curricula at the elementary
Usual (BAU) §scenario assuming pre-Plans conditions;
Investment costs: Both the energy efficiency school level. To remedy this situation, several
an energy efficiency scenario; a renewable
and renewable energy initiatives can be energy Other major findings include
recommendations havethe need
beento make
proposedbetter
scenario; and aimplemented
combined scenario considering
at substantial both to
cost savings use of social media to build awareness,
focusing on curriculum reform, teacher as well as print
energy efficiency initiatives
society. Theandnetrenewable
present energy. of cost and televised
value The awareness media, including
raising, the use ofclimate-
and introducing slogans.
Long-range Energy savingsAlternatives
from energy Planning investments Based on
efficiency (LEAP) basedthese findings,
activities a climateaides.
as teaching change awareness
modeling tool iswas nearly US$
used to1 estimate
billion, roughly
future 8annual
times that plan was developed that specified activities, target
Technology transfer issues were evaluated
energy savings, of renewable costs,
incremental energy. and CO2e emission groups,relative
input requirements,
to key barriers and institutional
and needs. roles. To
reductions. § Costs of avoiding carbon: While both energy promote strategic technology transfer,
The degree to which climate
advancement on thechange
followingis part of early will
measures grade
efficiency and renewable energy
Table ES-2 provides an overall
investments summary
reduce carbonof the costswhile
emissions education was evaluated
be necessary: through a series of studies.
and benefits associated
also reducing with costs,
the energy
energy efficiency
efficiency is The core finding is that climate change concepts have
§ Provision of anincorporated
enabling environment
into sciencefor
and renewable roughly
energy 2.3
initiatives Plans. The per thus far not
of thecost-effective
times more been largely
technology transfer in renewable energy
and
following bullets unithighlight
of carbonkey avoided.
findings: social science curricula at the elementary school level.
technologies in light of the findings of a
To remedy this situation, several recommendations
previously conducted technology needs
Other
CO2e reductions: Theinformation
22 energy efficiency initiatives have been proposed focusing on curriculum reform,
assessment;
provide mostPublic
of the awareness
cumulative of emission was assessed teacher awareness raising, and introducing climate-
climatereductions,
about 77%, through
over 3 timesa survey.theFindings
cumulative
showed that 88% based activities as teaching aides.
emission
reductions from renewable energy initiatives.
Technology transfer issues were evaluated xiii | P arelative
ge
●● Investment costs: Both the energy efficiency and to key barriers and needs. To promote strategic
renewable energy initiatives can be implemented at technology transfer, advancement on the following
measures will be necessary:

xxi
●● Provision of an enabling environment for (R&D) in green technology and climate
technology transfer in renewable energy technologies for small- and medium-sized
technologies in light of the findings of a previously enterprises;
conducted technology needs assessment;
●● Developing technology transfer policies and
●● Enforcing intellectual property rights to provide integrating them within technology actions plans;
confidence to prospective private sector investors; and

●● Improving knowledge management processes and ●● Enhancing human capacity to support science-
platforms for knowledge sharing; policy dialogues, build public awareness, and
manage technology information.
●● Enhancing funding for research and development

xxii
1.
National
Circumstances

National Circumstances
National Circumstances 1 01
1. National Circumstances
Bahrain is a small island developing state (SIDS) in countries in the world. The topography is mostly flat,
the Arabian Gulf that faces unique circumstances gently rolling land with low relief. Its highest point is
regarding the threat of climate change. On the one Jabal Dukhkhan at 135 meters, which is also the site of
hand, it enjoys a high standard of living, a modern its only oil field.
infrastructure, good health facilities, high literacy
rates, and deep economic integration with other Gulf Bahrain has a total coastline of 946 km. Its coastline
countries. Each of these circumstances position it well and land area have both evolved considerably over
for developing suitable responses. the last 30 years due to a series of land reclamation
projects, which continue to the present day. Roughly,
On the other hand, fresh water resources are negligible 111 km2 of reclaimed land has been added since 1980,
requiring energy-intensive desalination. The climate is accounting for about 15% of its current total land area.
hot nearly year-round leading to intensive electricity The extensive dredging needed for these reclamation
use for space cooling. Its economy is primarily driven efforts has led to irreparable damage to coastal areas,
by oil revenues with limited economic diversification. with many corals being killed and sea-grass beds
Layered onto these circumstances is a rapidly growing destroyed. It has also adversely affected the areas
population and development activities over the dredged causing excessive siltation and turbidity of
past 20 years, putting increased strain on natural seawater and increased groundwater salinity (Madany
resources while generating mounting pressure on the et al, 1987; Zainal et al., 2012).
environment. Together, these factors pose a serious
challenge to Bahrain’s efforts to transition toward
climate resilient green growth.
1.1.2. Climate
Bahrain is an arid country with mild, pleasant winters,
and summers that are very hot and humid. Table
This chapter outlines Bahrain’s physical, social,
1-1 summarizes monthly averages of key climatic
economic, and development policy circumstances.
indicators for the period 1960-2017. Rainfall is
Data were obtained primarily from Bahrain’s negligible from April through the end of October,
Information and eGovernment Authority (IeGA),
coinciding with high temperatures. Relative humidity
the UN Human Development Report (HDR), and
is highest during the winter months of December
other governmental organizations in Bahrain, as well
through February, although other months of the year
as from global organizations such as the World Bank show only slightly lower levels. Onshore wind speeds
and the International Monetary Fund. This chapter are typically throughout the year, ranging from 3.8 to
also reflects important changes that have taken place 5.5 meters per second.
in Bahrain relevant to climatic change since its Second
National Communication.
1.1.3. Agriculture and land use
Agriculture in negligible in Bahrain, accounting for
1.1. Physical setting only 0.3% of GDP (World Bank, 2019) and covers
Situated in the west central part of the Arabian Gulf, only a small fraction of the country’s needs in food.
the Kingdom of Bahrain is located approximately 25 Agricultural products are mainly fruits, vegetables,
km east of Saudi Arabia and is bounded by latitude poultry, dairy products, shrimp, and fish, all of which
25o32'N and 26o20'N and longitude 50o20'E and is for domestic consumption. The main crop is the
50o50'E. It is an archipelago of more than 36 islands, date palm and is of great historical and cultural value
shoals, and small islets that vary considerably in size
to the Bahrainis.
and structure.
Production trends over the 2000-2017 period are
1.1.1. Geography summarized in Figure 1-2. While vegetable production
Figure 1-1 shows a map of Bahrain. Total land area is levels have increased by about 2.3% per year since
currently about 780 km2, making it one of the smallest 2000, vegetable production has declined by about

2
 1.1.4. Energy
Low agricultural productivity
is a function
Bahrain of both
produces limited50,000 barrels
around
arable
of oil land
a day.andIt aalsohyper arid 50% of the
receives
climate. Figure 1-3 illustrates
revenues associated with the approximately
the fact that
300,000 Bahrain
barrels per isday poorlyproduced in the
endowed in terms
Saudi operated Abu Sa’fa of arableoil field which is
situated on the maritime to
and forest land, compared border between
both the Middle East and
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. As of 2015,
North Africa (MENA) and
Bahrain’s proven crude reserves come to
world averages. That is, only
130
2.1%million of barrels
the land (Energy is Information
Administration
considered arable, roughly2019).
(USEIA),
one fifth of the world
Bahrain’s
average. natural gas production totaled
520 billion cubic feet (bcf) in 2015, plus
In contrast, permanent crop
an additional 230 bcf of associated gas
land in Bahrain takes up a
(Al-Doseri,
disproportionate 2018). shareAs of of 2015, Bahrain’s
proven
land area, natural
aboutgasthree reserves
timescome to 3,250
bcf
the world average. In
(USEIA, 2019). This2017. Bahrain
began construction
illustrates of the Middle East’s
the acute difficulty
first liquifiedcountries
that desert natural such gas (LNG)as receiving
and regasification
Bahrain face in forging a terminal offshore Hidd
modern economy.
Industrial Area on MuharraqPrior to Island. When
the discovery
complete, the offacility
oil in 1929,will help Bahrain
Bahrain’s
meet population,
increasing demand as for
wellnatural gas for
as other countries in the
industrial and urban development. Gulf
region, relied on nomadic
lifestyles
There havedue tobeen
also the challenge
some recent discoveries
of eking out
of additional fossil a livingfuelinresources.
the In April
Figure 1-1: Map of Bahrain virtual absence of forest
2018, the Bahrain government announced aand
arable land.
0.7%/year while production of other items such as large discovery of up to 80 billion barrels of
1.1.3. roots/tubers,
Agriculture and tree land use declined by about
pulses, nuts have 1.1.4.shale oil, and 20 trillion cubic feet of gas (Naumann
Energy
Agriculture in negligible in Bahrain,
4.8%/year. et al., 2018). The potential economic impact of these
Bahrain producesis currently
discoveries around 50,000 barrels of
being assessed.
accounting for only 0.3% of GDP (World
oil a day. It also receives 50% of the revenues
Bank,
Low 2019) and productivity
agricultural covers only aissmall fractionof both
a function associated with consumption
Electricity the approximatelyper capita 300,000
is high in Bahrain,
of the country’s needs in food. Agricultural
limited arable land and a hyper arid climate. Figurebarrels per day produced in the Saudi
products
1-3 illustratesare the mainly
fact that fruits,
Bahrain vegetables, even by Gulf country standards.
is poorly endowedoperated Abu Sa’fa oil field which is situated As illustrated in Figure
inpoultry,
terms of dairy products,
arable shrimp,
and forest land,and fish, all to both
compared 1-4, per capita consumption levels are over double the
on the maritime border between Saudi
of which is for domestic consumption.
the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and worldArabia The weighted averageAsofofthe other Gulf countries (i.e.,
and Bahrain. 2015, Bahrain’s
main crop is is,
theonlydate2.1%
palmofand the island
of isgreat Kuwait,
averages. That consideredproven crude Saudi
reserves Arabia,
comeQatar,
to 130United millionArab Emirates,
historical and cultural value to the Bahrainis. and(Energy
Oman)Information
and seven times the world average. While
arable, roughly one fifth of the world average. barrels Administration
Production trends over the 2000-2017 period Bahrain’s
(USEIA), 2019). high electricity consumption levels are
Inare summarized
contrast, permanent in crop
Figure
land in1-2.
BahrainWhile driven in large part by air conditioning demand, it also
takes up aBahrain’s natural gas production totaled 520
vegetable production
disproportionate sharelevels
of land have increased
area, by times
about three reflects generous electricity subsidies to households
billion cubic feet (bcf) in 2015, plus an
about 2.3% per yearThis since 2000,the vegetable and businesses
the world average. illustrates acute difficultyadditional 230 bcf ofwhich disincentivize
associated gas (Al-efficiency and
production has declined by about 0.7%/year conservation investments (Naumann
that desert countries such as Bahrain face in forgingDoseri, 2018). As of 2015, Bahrain’s provenet al., 2018).
while production of other items such as
a modern economy. Prior to the discovery of oil innatural gas reserves come to 3,250 bcf
pulses, roots/tubers, tree nuts have declined
1929, Bahrain’s population, as well as other countries(USEIA,
by about 4.8%/year 1.1.5. Water
2019). and Bahrain
In 2017. sanitation began
in the Gulf region, relied on nomadic lifestyles due construction
Bahrain is a highly water stressedfirst
of the Middle East’s country from a
to the challenge of eking out a living in the virtual freshwater resource availability 2 |perspective.
Page There are
absence of forest and arable land. only 3 cubic meters (m3) of renewable groundwater
per capita, compared to an average of 1,400 m3

3
 liquifiedand
across the MENA natural
a worldgas average
(LNG) ofreceiving
6,000 mand
3
Table 1–1: Climatic indicators for Bahrain, 1960-
regasification
per capita (World terminal
Bank, 2019). offshore
While there Hidd
are non- 2017 (Source: Bahrain Ministry of Transportation
Industrial
renewable water Arearising
springs, on Muharraq
populationIsland. When
combined and Telecommunications)
complete, the facility will help Bahrain
with inefficient consumption have led to the gradual meet Mean Average
daily wind
increasing demand for natural gas for
depletion of these fossil groundwater sources. Average Annual relative speed
industrial and urban development. temperature rainfall humidity (meters/
Month (°C) (mm) (%) second)
There haveaccounts
Today, groundwater also beenforsome recent
only discoveries
around 9% January 17.1 19.5 72 5.1
of additional fossil fuel resources.
of water production (Albuflasa, 2018). The balance In April February 18.2 19.0 70 5.3
March 21.1 16.4 65 5.1
of water supply is provided by high-cost desalinated a
2018, the Bahrain government announced April 25.6 9.5 59 4.7
largeusing
water produced discovery of up to 80thermal
energy-intensive billion barrels
(multi- of May 30.5 1.4 54 4.8

stage flash, MSF; multi-effect distillation, MED) of

shale oil, and 20 trillion cubic feet andgas
June 33.1 0.0 53 5.5
July 34.5 0.0 56 4.6
(Naumann et al., 2018). The potential
membrane-based technologies (reverse osmosis, RO). August 34.6 0.0 61 4.1
economic impact of these discoveries is September 32.8 0.0 63 3.8
The combined desalinated water production capacity
currently being assessed. October 29.5 0.4 65 3.9
is about 846 thousand cubic meters per day. An November 24.5 13.1 67 4.6
inventory ofFive power units
desalination stations with inaTable
is shown combined
1-2. December 19.4 18.4 72 4.9
Minimum 17.1 0.0 53 3.8
installed capacity of 3.9 GW account for 5.5
Maximum 34.6 19.5 72
Water demand Bahrain electric
is satisfied by generation.
the municipal Bahrain can also
distribution Average 26.7 8.1 63 4.7

network and on-site groundwater extraction(GCC)

access the Gulf Cooperation Council or
grid for emergency power, and the grid is also
desalination. The municipal distribution network
currently being developed to allow for non-
meets demand mostly from
emergency households,
electricity trading.businesses,
Renewable
and government buildings and currently
energy is yet to make a significant accounts for
60% of all water consumption.
contribution The remaining
to power generation,40% of
though
water use isthere
fromarefarms andprojects
several industrial facilities.
underway.
Electricity consumption per capita is high in
Municipal water consumption is very high in Bahrain.
Bahrain, even by Gulf country standards. As
On a per capita basis, water is currently consumed at
illustrated in Figure 1-4, per capita
an average rate of 500 literslevels
consumption per dayareperover
person, one ofthe
double Figure 1-2: Agricultural productivity in Bahrain,
the highest levels in the
weighted world.of the other Gulf countries
average 2000-2017 (Source: FAO, 2019)
(i.e., Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United
Bahrain has Arab also made and
Emirates, substantial
Oman) and progress in
seven times
providing basic sanitation services for about
the world average. While Bahrain’s high 92%
of its population.
electricityThe Ministry oflevels
consumption Worksare (MoW)
driven in
operates 11large part byfacilities
treatment air conditioning demand,
with a total it also
capacity
reflects mgenerous
of about 352,770 3
/d (see Tableelectricity subsidies
1-3). The largest to
households
wastewater treatment andare the
facilities businesses
Tubli and Northwhich
Sitra plants.disincentivize efficiency and conservation
investments (Naumann et al., 2018).
1.1.6. Terrestrial
1.1.5. Waterenvironment
and sanitation
A desert environment dominates Bahrain’s terrestrial
Bahrain is a highly water stressed country Figure 1-3:: Land use patterns in Bahrain in 2015,
landscape, except for a narrow fertile strip that is found
from a freshwater resource availability compared with other regions (Source: World Bank,
along the northern and northwestern coastlines. The
perspective. There are only 3 cubic meters 2019)
desert is home
(m3to many
) of types ofgroundwater
renewable insects, reptiles,
perbirds
capita,
and wild mammals. It is also an important source of consumption have led to the gradual
compared to an average of 1,400 m3 across to provide a refuge
palm dates and depletion of for
thesethe endangered species and
fossil groundwater
the medicinal
MENA and desert plants
a world that are
average ofused
6,000inm3 their breeding
folk medicine. sources. habitats, it also serves as an educational
per capita (World Bank, 2019). While there center to learn about local wildlife (http://www.
are non-renewable water springs, rising Today, groundwater accounts for only
alareen.org/HomePage.aspx).Mammal species in the
around 9% of water production (Albuflasa,
population
For centuries biodiversitycombined
has played with
a large inefficient
role in
reserve include the Arabian Oryx, Nubian ibex and
defining the identity and heritage of the Kingdom,
the Bahraini Alrheem Gazelle, in addition to some
most vividly illustrated by the 1976 establishment of 3 | Pand
a g esome
bird species such as the Houbara Bustard
the AlAreen Wildlife Park and Reserve to promote
common desert plants (see Figure 1-5).
conservation and protect rare animals and birds found
in the kingdom and region. While primarily established

4
 on-site
Bahrain, compared with other regions, 2000-2014
tion. The
(Source: UNDP, 2016)
k meets
usinesses,
ly is home to many types of insects, reptiles, birds
currently
water andcenter
wild mammals. to learnIt isabout also anlocal important wildlife
umption.
ermal source of palm dates and medicinal desert
(http://www.alareen.org/HomePage.aspx).
is from
ffect plants
Mammal that are used ininfolk
species the medicine.
reserve include the
based 2018).For Arabian
The balance
centuries Oryx, Nubian
of
biodiversity wateribex has and the
supply
played isaBahraini
large
ryThe
high in provided Alrheem
by Gazelle,
high-cost in addition
desalinated
role in defining the identity and heritage of to
water some bird
Figure 1-5: Mammal and plant species found in the
ction
water is produced thespeciesusing such
Kingdom, as the
energy-intensive
most vividly Houbara thermal
illustrated Bustardby theand AlAreen Wildlife Park and Reserve (source:
eters
ate of 500 (multi-stage
1976 some common
flash, MSF;
establishment desert
of the plants (see Figure
multi-effect
AlAreen Wildlife 1-5). Bahrain’s 2016-2021 NBSAP)
nits is
e highest distillation,
Park MED)
and Reserve
Bahrain and
has to membrane-based
promote conservation
environmental protection
technologies
andpolicies, (reverse
protect osmosis,
rare animals
legislation and and RO).birdsThe
regulations found
in place in to restoration under provide
high stress due to land
confirmation of reclamation
the unfolding
activities, with a reduction in area from 24
cipal in combined
rogress theprotect desalinated
kingdom and and water region.
conserve production
While terrestrial effectiveness
its primarily of Bahrain’s 2016-2021 NBSAP.
capacity is
Figureestablished
1-4: about 846
Electricity
biodiversity. thousand
toconsumption
provide
The Kingdom cubic
alevels meters
in
refuge
has for been
also the a km in 1956 to about 12 km in 2008.
2 2
n-site
for about per day.
Bahrain, An
endangered inventory
compared with
signatory tospecies of
otherdesalination
regions,
the Convention units
2000-2014
and theironbreeding is
Biological 1.1.7.
The of
nistry (Source:inUNDP,
shown Table 2016)
1-2. Marine
Seagrass beds inenvironment
Bahrain are represented by
meets
treatment habitats,
Diversity it (CBD)
also serves since 1996. as anFurthermore,
educational in The marine species; Halophila
three environment ovalis, Halophila
is characterized high rates of
esses,
about Water homedemand efforts
to manyistypes to preserve
satisfied its
by thereptiles,
of insects, natural
municipal assets.
birds the stipulacea and Halodule
evaporation during most of the year uninervis. Theand latter two
a shortage
ently distribution
and country embarked
network on
and a two-year
on-siteZubari, process Figure 1-4: Electricity consumption
species areinput. the most levels
common in and are widely
largest Table 1–2:wild mammals.
Inventory It is also
of desalination an important
plants (source: of compared
Bahrain, freshwater within other Average
regions, seawater
2000-2014 temperatures
ption. groundwater
source
re the et al., 2018) (2013-2015)
of extraction
palm dates to or revise
and and
desalination.
medicinal update
The
desert its first distributed the southeast coast extending
range
(Source: UNDP,from 8°C in winter to 3 °C in summer, with daily
2016)
from municipal
plants thatNational
distribution
are used Biodiversity
in folknetwork Strategy
medicine.
Capacity meets and Action to Hawar Island. Seagrass beds support
Plan (NBSAP) that had businesses, been developed inhome to marine variations that can reach and
biodiversity 4°C provide
betweennursery day andand night.
demand mostly Onlinefrom households, 1000
many types of insects, reptiles, birds
PlantFor centuries
2007. yearbiodiversity
Technology hasmplayed 3 /d aRaw large
Water Sensitive habitats of coral reefs and seagrass speciesare largely
gh in and government
Sitrarole in defining 1975 the buildings
identity and
MSF and currently
113.6 heritage Seawaterof and wildfeeding
mammals. groundsIt is for
alsoendangered
an important such
affected by such wide seasonal and daily variations.
er is accounts
Ras Abu Jarjur for1984
Today,
the Kingdom,
60% theof2016-2021
all
RO water consumption.
73.4
NBSAP groundwater
isSeawater
recognized source ofaspalm greendatesturtleand andmedicinal
dugong, asdesert well as other
ahrain’s 1990 most vividly illustrated by the benthos.
fnarrow
500
Al Dur
The remaining
Al-Hidd as 1999
1976 establishment the40%
RO
of water element
principal
MSF of
& MEDthe AlAreen
45.5
use is from
409.1 Wildlifefor CBDplants
Seawater
that are usedCoastal
in folkdevelopment
medicine. projects have
farms andimplementation
industrial facilities. The most vital
significantly marine
reduced habitats
the area inof Bahrain seagrass are
ghest
orthern Alba Park and Reserve 2002 toMED in Bahrain,
promote 31.8 aiming
conservation Seawaterto reverseFor centuries biodiversity has played a large
Al-Dur 2012 RO 218.2 Seawater represented
beds, a situation that has led to efforts in
by mangrove and seagrass beds to the
esert is Total Municipal
and protect“… waterthe
rare loss
consumption
animalsof biodiversity
andis846.1 very found
birds within
high ininBahrainiroleintertidal
in defining the identity and heritage of
terrestrial, marinebasis, restore seagrass
regions andhabitats
coral reefs in theinvicinity of
the subtidal
ess in Bahrain Bahrain.
the kingdom On aand per region.
capita Whileand water
primarily freshwater
is the Kingdom,
reclaimed
regions. most
There vividly
lands.
is only illustrated
one speciesby the
of mangrove,
hasconsumedenvironmental protection policies,
atment
bout plants (source:ecosystems.”
currently
established Zubari, toetprovide anVarious
al.,at2018) average
a refuge activities
rate of
for500 the such as1976 establishment of the AlAreen Wildlife
legislation
liters and
per day per
endangered regulations
restoration, person,and
species in place
reforestation
one of their to protect
the highest
People and
breeding
Design publicParkAvicennia
and
Flow, andCoral
marina,
Reservereefstoare which
foundismostly
promote
distributedin thearound
conservation east and Tubli
ynt of conserve m /dayhas in bay. Mangroves
Treatmentitsawareness
levels in the
habitats, terrestrial biodiversity.
Technology
itworld.
also raising as
serves programs The
servedKingdom
an700,000 are ongoing
educational
3
and protect north due
rare toare
animals the under high stress
comparatively
and birds found higher due to land
in salinity
ment
stic Tertiary Ozone, Chlorine, Filtration 200,000
reclamation activities, with a reduction
outndustrial
alsoTertiary
been a support
signatory
Deep gravity
tosand
of the
this Convention
filters
central 72,500
on Biological
aim. Emergingthe kingdom
16,500 and temperatures
and region. associated While2 primarily the south from
in area and 24
Bahrain has also made substantial progress in km in 1956 to The
aboutmain
evidence of 1996.
increasing number1,250 ofin species
effortsandestablished a 12refuge
km infor 2008.
2
stic Diversity
Secondary(CBD) since
Activated sludge Furthermore, 288 west toareas.
provide coral habitats
the include
est Table 1–2: providing
Inventory basic sanitation
of desalination services
plants for
(source: about
Zubari,
ndustrial Tertiary
to preserve its habitat
natural restoration
Sand assets. theprovide
Filters countryconfirmation
N/A embarked on ofendangered
2,325 the 200 km Fasht
species
2
and their Al-Adhm in the east of
breeding
the
stic et al., 2018)92%
Tertiaryof its population.Sand filters The Ministry 1,500 of340
a two-year the
process unfolding
(2013-2015) effectiveness
to revise of
and Bahrain’s
update Bahrain,
Seagrass beds Khawr
in Fasht
Bahrain
habitats, it also serves as an educational and
are Fasht
representedAl-Jarim by inthree
stic Works
Tertiary (MoW)Sandoperates
2016-2021
filters Capacity
NBSAP. 11 1,679 treatment504
its Secondary
first National
Online Biodiversity
Activated sludge Strategy the north, and Bulthama,
species; Halophila ovalis, Halophila stipulacea and about 70 km
ofand
stic 1000 1,500 Action 408 Plan
Plant facilities with Technology
a Chlorine
total capacity about
northeast (Vousden, 1988).
ndustrial Tertiary year
(NBSAP)
Sitra 352,770
that
m 3 had been developed in 2007.
/d (see Table
m3/d 14,800 Raw Water 900
Halodule uninervis. The latter twoInspecies
the past, aredense
the most
stic Tertiary 1975 SandMSF Filters 1-3). 113.6 The 250largest
Seawater Table 70 1–2: Inventory of desalination plants (source: Zubari,(50–80%)
Ras Abuwastewater
1.1.7.
1984 treatment
Marine environment groundwater Acropora dominated coral
common and are widely distributed in the southeast cover
stic
n’s
Jarjur
MBR RO
MBR facilities
73.4 are
1,500 the 1,100 et al., 2018)
Al Dur
Industrial MBR
Today, the1999 1990
The marine
2016-2021 RO
MBR 45.5
environment
NBSAP N/A Seawater 2,250
is characterized
is Seawater
recognized as coast was typicallytofound
extending Hawar (seeIsland.
FigureSeagrass
1-6, left).beds
ow Al-Hidd Tubli and North MSFSitra
& MED plants. 409.1 Today, less than
Capacity
10% remain due to large and
the principal high ratesMED
element offor evaporation
CBD during
31.8 implementation 4 |most a gofin
P Plant e the supportOnline marine biodiversity 1000 and provide nursery
ern Alba 2002 Seawater
yearscaleTechnology
coastal development
m3/d and
Raw Water bleaching
Al-Dur 1.1.6. aiming year toand
Terrestrial a shortage
environment of freshwater Sitrainput. feeding 1975 grounds MSF for endangered species such as green
t is TotalBahrain, reverse “…218.2 the loss of biodiversity
2012 RO Seawater
Average seawater 846.1
temperatures range from episodes of the113.6 Seawater
1990s groundwater
(Burt et al., 2013).
within Bahraini terrestrial, marineBahrain’s and freshwater Ras Abu Jarjur turtle
1984 and dugong,
RO as well
73.4 as other benthos. Coastal
A desert environment
8°C in winter dominates
to 3 °C in summer, with
Al Dur daily More
1990 than
RO 50 finfish
45.5 species
Seawater are associated
nt plants ecosystems.”
(source: Various
Zubari,landscape,
terrestrial et al., 2018) activities
except such
for a as restoration,
narrow development projects have significantly reduced the
variations that can reach 4°C between
Al-Hidd
day with
1999 the
MSF & remaining
MED 409.1coral reefs
Seawater (see Figure 1-
reforestation
fertile strip and
that public
is found awareness
alongPeople the raising
northern programs
Design Flow, Alba area of
2002 seagrass
6, middle, MED beds, a situation
31.8
right).218.2 that
Seawater has led to efforts
Treatment
areand ongoing and night.
Technology
inChlorine,
support Sensitive
of this 700,000 habitats
served
central aim.mof
3/daycoral Al-Dur
Emerging reefs 2012 RO Seawater
to restore seagrass habitats in the vicinity of reclaimed
Tertiary northwestern
and
Ozone, seagrass coastlines.
are
Filtration largely Theaffected
desert is
by
200,000 such
Total wide 846.1
rial evidence of
Tertiary Deep increasing number 72,500
gravity sand filters of species16,500 and habitat lands.
Secondary
seasonal and daily variations.
Activated sludge 1,250 288
Table 1–3: Inventory of wastewater treatment plants (source: Zubari, et al., 2018)
rial Tertiary Sand Filters N/A
TertiaryPlant
The mostOnlinevital marine
Sand filtersyear
habitats2,325
1,500
in Bahrain are People Design Flow,
Influent 340 Treatment Technology served m3/day
represented
TertiaryTubli WPCC Sand filters 1982
by mangrove
1,679 and
Domestic 504
seagrass beds
Tertiary Ozone, Chlorine, Filtration 700,000 200,000
SecondaryNorth Sitrain the intertidal
Activated sludge
2008 regions
1,500 and coral
408
Domestic & Industrial reefs in the
Tertiary Deep gravity sand filters 72,500 16,500
rial TertiaryAskar Chlorine 1997 14,800 900
subtidal regions. There
TertiaryHidd IndustrialSand Filters
is only one
Domestic
250 & Industrial
70
species of
Secondary Activated sludge 1,250 288
mangrove, 2005 Avicennia
Domestic marina, Tertiaryis
which Sand Filters
Figure 1-6: Left: Common N/A coral species;
2,325 Right:
MBR Jasrah MBR 2006 1,500
Domestic 1,100 Tertiary Sand filters 1,500 340
trial distributed
MBR Bahrain University MBR 1985 around Tubli
N/A bay. 2,250
Domestic Mangroves are
Tertiary
Common finfish species
Sand filters
associated
1,679 504
with coral reefs
Jaow 1992 Domestic in Bahrain’ waters (source: Al-Dawood, 2018)
South Alba 1994
4|Pag
Domestic & Industrial
e Secondary
Tertiary
Activated sludge
Chlorine
1,500
14,800
408
900
Al Dur 2003 Domestic Tertiary Sand Filters 250 70 5|Page
Hamalah 2015 Domestic MBR MBR 1,500 1,100
Ma'ameer 2010 Domestic and Industrial MBR MBR N/A 2,250

4|Page
5
 s and west areas. The main coral habitats include
on of the 200 km2 Fasht Al-Adhm in the east of
rain’s Bahrain, Khawr Fasht and Fasht Al-Jarim in
Coral reefs are found mostly in the east and north due Bahrain’s high growth rate during 2005-2010 was over
the north, and Bulthama, about 70 km
to thenortheast
comparatively higher
(Vousden, salinity
1988). andpast,
In the temperatures
dense double the growth rate in the rest of the Arab world
associated the south and
Acropora dominated coral west areas.
cover (50–80%)coral
The main are is attributed to high levels of migrant workers
habitats include the 200 km
was typically found (see Figure
2
Fasht Al-Adhm in the
1-6, left). (i.e., non-citizens) that obtained work visa during
erized east Today,
of Bahrain, Khawr Fasht anddueFasht
of the 1.2. less than
Social 10%
setting remain to Al-Jarim
large that period. In contrast, Bahrain’s growth rate during
people in the age group 15-64, away from the
in thescale
north, and Bulthama, about
coastal development and bleaching70 km northeast 2010-2015
two extremes was (under
lower than 5, overthat65):of people
the Arab in world,
nput. Bahrain
from
(Vousden,
episodes ofenjoys
1988). the atherichpast,
In 1990s social
(Burt et milieu,
dense
al., 2013).with
Acropora indicating
this group the represent
relative volatility
about 76% of demographics
of the in
dominateddiverse
More coral communities
than 50 finfish
cover living
specieswas
(50–80%) side by
aretypicallyside
associated in
found Bahrain. Women account
daily population, compared to for approximately
between 63% and37% of
primarily
with the1-6,
(see Figure high-density
remaining coral reefs
left). Today, urban
less than contexts
(see Figure 1-
10% remain the total population; a low figure due primarily
n day 66% across the three comparison groups (i.e., to the
6, throughout
middle, the
right). island. Several key
due to large scale coastal development and bleaching aspects of large
reefs smallnumbers of migrant states
islands developing workers are primarily
(SIDS), Arab male.
the Bahrain social fabric are described
episodes of the 1990s (Burt et al., 2013). More than 50 in the
wide states, world). As a result, Bahrain’s old age
subsections that follow.
dependency
Figure 1-8 shows ratio theis age-based
only about 3%,
composition of
compared to 7% for Arab states,
Bahrain’s population. Again, due primarily to the 11% for
in are 1.2.1. Population
SIDSs, andof13%
abundance for the
migrant world. Bahrain’s population
workers,
beds In 2016, Bahrain’s total population was just
in the is skewed toward people in the age group 15-64, away
over 1.4 million. Roughly, half of the 1.2.2.theHealth
from two extremes (under 5, over 65): people in
ies of population is comprised of expatriates who
h is Figure 1-6: Left: Common coral species; Right: this group represent
Bahrain’s enjoys a about modern, 76% high-quality
of the population,
come to country to pursue work
es are Common finfish species associated with coral reefs healthcareto system
compared betweenevidenced
63% and 66% by favorable
across the three
opportunities (see Figure 1-7; left). The
in Bahrain’ waters (source: Al-Dawood, 2018) public health
comparison indicators.
groups Forislands
(i.e., small example, infant states
developing
average annual rate of population growth has
mortality in Bahrain is very low:
(SIDS), Arab states, world). As a result, Bahrain’s 5.3 per 1,000 old
decreased significantly from5 |5.3%/year
Page
finfish species are associated with the remaining coral livedependency
age births. As shown ratio isinonlyFigure 1-9 (left
about 3%, bars),
compared to
during the 2005-2010 period, to about
reefs (see Figure 1-6, middle, right). 7%thisforis Arab
roughly 80%11%
states, to 85% lower and
for SIDSs, than13%the for the
1.8%/year during the 2010-2015 period (see
three comparison groups (i.e., Arab states,
world.
Figure 1-7; right).
small island developing states (SIDS), world).
1.2. Social
Bahrain’ssetting
high growth rate during 2005-2010 Mortality among children under 5 years of
Bahrainwas enjoys a rich the
over double social
growthmilieu,
rate inwith diverse
the rest of 1.2.2.
age is alsoHealth
very low, about 6.2 per 1,000 live
the Arab
communities world
living are by
side is attributed to high levels
side in primarily high- births, asenjoys
Bahrain’s shown ainmodern,Figure 1-9 (middle bars)
high-quality healthcare
density of migrant
urban workers
contexts (i.e., non-citizens)
throughout that
the island. Several or roughly, 85% to 90%
system evidenced by favorable public health lower than the
obtained
key aspects of thework
Bahrainvisa social
duringfabric
that are
period. In
described comparison
indicators. Forgroups.
example, infant mortality in Bahrain is
contrast, Bahrain’s
in the subsections that follow. growth rate during 2010- very low: 5.3people
per 1,000 live births. As shown in Figure
Moreover, in Bahrain enjoy long life
2015 was lower than that of the Arab world, 1-9
expectancy. By the measure of life than
(left bars), this is roughly 80% to 85% lower
indicating the relative volatility of the three comparison
1.2.1. demographics
Population expectancy at age 60,groups (i.e., Arabacross
the population states, small
in Bahrain. Women account island
In 2016, Bahrain’s total population males developing
and females states averages (SIDS),
about world).
19.4 years Mortality
for approximately 37% was of just
the over 1.4
total
million.population;
(In 2019, aBahrain's of life children
among beyond age under60, 5asyears
shown of inageFigure
is also1-9very low,
low figuretotal due population
primarily to reach
the
(right6.2bars).
about This live
per 1,000 is barely
births, as distinguishable
shown in Figure 1-9
large numbers
approximately of migrant
1.5 million). Roughly,workers
half of arethe
from the
(middle bars)comparison
or roughly, 85% groups, performing
to 90% lower than the
primarily
population male. of expatriates who come to
is comprised marginally
comparison groups.better than the Arab world, and
countryFigure
to pursue work opportunities
1-8 shows the age-based(see Figure 1-7;
composition marginally worse than the world average.
left). The average annual
of Bahrain’s rate of
population. population
Again, growth
due primarily Moreover, people in Bahrain enjoy long life
has decreased
to the significantly
abundance from 5.3%/year
of migrant during
workers, expectancy. By the measure of life expectancy at age
the 2005-2010 period, to about 1.8%/year
Bahrain’s population is skewed toward during the
60, the population across males and females averages
2010-2015 period (see Figure 1-7; right).

Figure 1-7: Left: Bahrain population composition, 2006-2016 (Source: IeGA, 2019); Right: Average annual
population growth in Bahrain compared to other regions (Source: UNDP, 2016)
6|Page
6
about 19.4 In an effort
years of lifetobeyond
explore age possible
60, aslinks between
shown in
Figure 1-9 climatic
(right bars). conditions
This is barely and distinguishable
human health
indicators in Bahrain,
from the comparison groups, performing an extensive
marginally data
better than collection
the Arab world,and analysis effort wasworse
and marginally undertaken
than
(Hamadeh,
the world average. et al., 2018). Publicly available
annual mortality data were obtained for the
In an effortyears 2003-2015
to explore possiblefrom the Ministry
links between climaticof
Health’s (MOH) website
conditions and human health indicators in Bahrain, with earlier years
obtained from hard copies of health statistics.
an extensive data collection and analysis effort was
undertakenAll Morbidityet data
(Hamadeh, were Publicly
al., 2018). obtainedavailable
from the
MOH and Figure 1-8: Share of population by age group in
annual mortality data Bahrain Defense for
were obtained ForcetheHospital
years
(BDFH) and King Hamad University Bahrain in 2015, compared with other regions
2003-2015 from the Ministry of Health’s (MOH) (Source: UNDP, 2016)
website withHospital
earlier (KHUH).
years obtainedA totalfrom
of 135 preliminary
hard copies
correlation
of health statistics. relationships were developed,
mostly over the period 2006 – 2012, between
mortality and morbidity indicators (e.g., with
All Morbidity data were obtained from the MOH and
a set of climatic indicators (i.e., temperature,
Bahrain Defense
humidity) Force andHospital (BDFH)
air quality and King
indicators (i.e.,
Hamad University Hospital (KHUH). A
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur total of 135
preliminarydioxide,
correlation relationships
carbon monoxide, wereozone,
developed,
coarse
mostly overparticulate
the periodmatter2006 –(PM 2012, between mortality
10) and fine particulate
and morbidity
matter indicators
(PM2.5).(e.g.,Thewithresults
a set ofindicated
climatic a
indicators (i.e., temperature,
potentially rich humidity) and air quality
area investigation to be
indicators further pursued in coming
(i.e., concentrations years. dioxide,
of nitrogen Figure 1-9: Mortality indicators in Bahrain,
sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, coarse compared with other regions, 2015 (Source: UNDP,
2016)
particulate 1.2.3.
matter Education
(PM10) and fine particulate matter
(PM2.5). TheBahrain’s indicated
results population, a potentially
both citizenrich andareanon-
investigation to be further pursued in coming
citizen, male and female, enjoy high literacy years.
rates when compared to other regions. This
is
1.2.3. Educationdue in large part to high enrollment rates
across preschool and tertiary educational
Bahrain’s population, both citizen and non-citizen,
systems. Figure 1-10 shows that average
male and female, enjoy high literacy rates when
literacy rates in Bahrain among adults exceed
compared to theother
literacyregions.
rates inThis
SIDS, is Arab
due instates,
largeand partthe
to high enrollment rates across preschool
World by 12% to 15%. This characteristic and tertiary
educationalholds
systems.
trueFigure
for both 1-10female
showsand thatmale
average
youth
literacy rates in Bahrain among adults
where national literacy rates exceed those exceed the in Figure 1-10: Average literacy levels in Bahrain,
literacy rates
theincomparison
SIDS, Arabregions states, byand5%thetoWorld
12%. by compared with other regions, 2005-2015 (Source:
12% to 15%. This characteristic holds true for both UNDP, 2016)
female and1.2.4.
male youthUrbanization
where national literacy rates constant over the
especially pastnear
those several decades, increasing
the populated areas in by
exceed those in the comparison
Bahrain regions by 5%
is a highly urbanized to 12%.
country, with only 0.1% per year since 1960. In contrast, urbanization
the north.
nearly 89% of the country’s population living in Arab states, SIDS, and the world showed much
lowerUrbanization
levels in 2017;levels
58%,in55%,
Bahrain
andhave
55%,remained
respectively
1.2.4. Urbanization
in urban areas as of 2017. Most of the fairly constant over the past several decades,
although the rate of growth of the share of urbanized
Bahrain is apopulation is centered
highly urbanized country,inwith
thenearly
capital,
89%Al increasing by only 0.1% per year since 1960.
population in these regions grew between 5 and 11
of the country’s population living in urban areas aslike
Manamah and other major urban centers In contrast, urbanization in Arab states,
Al Muharraq, Ar Rifa' isand HamadinTown. timesSIDS,
the rate
andin the
Bahrain
world(seeshowed
Figure much
1-11). lower
of 2017. Most of the population centered the
Urban growth and associated activities (e.g., levels in 2017; 58%, 55%, and 55%,
capital, Al Manamah and other major urban centers
camping) have adversely affected natural
like Al Muharraq, Ar Rifa'
desert areas and Hamad
in some parts ofTown.
the Urban
country,
1.3.respectively
Economic setting
although the rate of growth of
growth and associated activities (e.g., camping) have Bahrain has a relatively open population
the share of urbanized economy and in is
these
ranked
adversely affected natural desert areas in some parts as 5th among MENA countries in the 2019 Index of
of the country, especially those near the populated Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation, 7 | P a g2019).
e
areas in the north. With a real per capita income of over $22,000 in 2016
(2010$), it is classified by the World Bank as a high-
Urbanization levels in Bahrain have remained fairly income economy. In 2016, Bahrain’s real GDP was

7
 regions
approximately grewbillion
US$31.4 between 5 and
(2010 11 times
US$) the rate
at market
in Bahrain
exchange rates, up from(see
23.8Figure
billion 1-11).
in 2008, an average
annual growth rate of about 3.6%.
1.3. Economic setting
1.3.1. Key sectors
Bahrain has a relatively open economy and is
rankedthe
Figure 1-12 shows as sectoral
5th among MENA countries
breakdown in the
of Bahrain’s
2019 Index of Economic Freedom
GDP for the years 2008 and 2016. The largest share(Heritage
Foundation, 2019). With a real per capita
of GDP, about one fifth, comes from the mining and
income of over $22,000 in 2016 (2010$), it is
quarrying sector, of which oil and gas operations
classified by the World Bank as a high-
account for income
most of economy.
the contribution, about
In 2016, 97%. real
Bahrain’s Figure 1-11: Urbanization levels in Bahrain,
compared with other regions, 2015 (Source: World
GDP was approximately US$31.4 billion
The oil & gas subsector remains Bank, 2019)
(2010 US$) at markettheexchange
cornerstone of up
rates,
Bahrain’s economy in the postwar period, accounting
from 23.8 billion in 2008, an average annual
for over 80% of public
growth revenues.
rate of This has been the
about 3.6%.
case since the demise of the pearl diving industry
1.3.1. Key sectors
during the 1930s.
Figure 1-12 shows the sectoral breakdown of
At about 16% of GDP,
Bahrain’s GDP financial
for theservices
years 2008 account
andfor 2016.
the second The largest sector, reflecting the
largest share of GDP, about one fifth, significant
contributioncomes
that Islamic
from the finance
miningmakes to Bahrain’s
and quarrying sector,
economy. Lebanon
of whichused oil andto be gasthe global capital
operations account of for
most
Islamic finance, butofafter
the contribution,
the Lebanese about civil war 97%.
during
Figure 1-12: Sectoral composition of Bahrain GDP,
the 1990s, Bahrain emerged as a new
The oil & gas subsector remains the financial services 2008 & 2016 (Source: IeGA, 2019)
hub and hascornerstone
maintained aofstrong presence
Bahrain’s economyin Islamic
in the
Falling
since. oilperiod,
finance ever postwar prices accounting
have placedfor the over
economy80% on of
apublic
path revenues.
that requires a long-term adjustment, 1.3.2. Key economic indicators
This has been the case since
as the
The third largest
the budget
demise of deficit,
sector theis pearlthe public
manufacturing,
diving debt,which
industry and the
during Figure 1-13 shows several macroeconomic
current
primarily reflects
the 1930s. account deficit are
the production and export of all at unsustainable indicators for Bahrain for 2015. Bahrain had
levels.
aluminum and downstream products, such as metal a budget deficit equal to 16% of GDP, which
At about 16% of GDP, financial services
Finally, tothe thelabor was the result of oil prices declining sharply
cables. In contrast
account for the force
mining and reflects
second largesttheand
quarrying large
sector,
number
financial services of
sectors expatriates
which havethat contribute
experienced to during 2014, which adversely impacted
reflecting the significant contribution that
private
declining shares and
of GDP, public sector activities. About government revenues. Falling oil prices and a
Islamic financethemakes manufacturing
to Bahrain’s sector as
economy.
a share of GDP75% of
has the entire
been labor
expanding force consists
slightly over of
thenon- rising budget deficit contributed to a rising
Lebanon used to be the global capital of
2008 to 2016 citizens,
period, most
from 14%of whom are
to 15%. involved in the public1-13:
Figure debt, whichmacroeconomic
Selected reached 66% indicators
of GDP in
Islamic finance, but after the Lebanese civil
private sector. The remaining 25% of asthea 2015.
for Bahrain, 2015 (Source: IMF, 2019; Labor
war during the 1990s, Bahrain emerged
labor force consists of citizens, Market Regulatory Authority, 2019)
new financial services hubmost andof who has At 1.8%, consumer price inflation was very
1.3.2. Key are economic
also associated indicators
with
maintained a strong presence in Islamic private sector The high
low in contribution
2015, similar oftooilprevious
to exportsyears.meant
This isthat
Figure 1-13 activities.
shows several Women macroeconomic indicators §oil Societal: The emphasis is on providing
finance ever since.are active in the labor force fallingdue prices
in large part to a fixed exchange rate equal
led to a current account deficit of
for Bahrain yetforparticipate
2015. Bahrain at a ratehadthata isbudget
below deficit
the world to 2.4% citizens
GDP. with
theofBahraini dinarhigh
This withquality
the US
represents aeducation and
dollar.departure
sharp This
The of third
GDP,largest
which sector
was theis result manufacturing,
equal to 16% average. of oil has healthcare,
from previousbeenyears
in effectensuring
since
of large
a secure
the
current early and safe
1980s
account and
surpluses
prices declining sharply during 2014, which adverselyand
which primarily reflects the production
due tohas
environment,
helped period
a sustained
and
keep consumerproviding
of elevatedprices
a safety net
highly
oil prices.
export ofrevenues.
1.3.3. Economic
impacted government aluminum
Vision
Falling and
2030 downstream
oil prices and fordespite
those less fortunate.
stable oil-price volatility.
products,
a rising budget such
deficit with as
contributedmetal cables. In
to countries, contrast
a rising public to
In concert
the mining and other Gulf
quarrying Bahrain
and financial The
FallingThe vision
oil high
prices haveis placed
contribution distinct
ofthe from
economy
oil to exports previous
on
meanta path
debt, which hasreachedbeen66% of GDP
active in 2015. economic
in exploring diversification
that requires efforts
a long-term across
adjustment, the Gulf
as the due to
budget
services sectors which have experienced that falling oil prices led to a current account
declining shares of GDP, thetomanufacturing
diversification strategies wean the its comprehensive
deficit,deficit
the publicequal and
debt,toand2.4% strategic
the current
of GDP.nature,
accountThisas it
deficit
economy
At 1.8%, consumer away
price from oil
inflation dependency.
was
sector as a share of GDP has been expanding very lowPrior
in to was conceived
are allrepresents based
a sharp
at unsustainable on the assumption
departure
levels. from previous that
the newover
2015, similarslightly
to previous millennium,
years. Thisthese
is due efforts
in
the 2008 to 2016 period, from had
large partbeen its implementation would require
years of large current account surpluses due high levels
largelytorate
to a fixed exchange
14% unsuccessful,
15%. of the Bahraini partially
dinardue with to
the the of a sustained
coordination ofbetween relevant
Finally,tothe labor force period
reflects elevated
the largeoilnumber
prices. of
US dollar. This has been in effect since the early 1980sdue
absence of suitable alternatives, but also governmental organizations. Moreover,
expatriates
several that contribute
new governmentalto private and publicwere
organizations sector
and has helpedto thekeep lackconsumer
of adequate pricespressure to make
highly stable 8 | P a g e
toughvolatility.
policy decisions, as state finances were activities. About 75%
founded under of thetheentire labor force
vision’s consists
umbrella
despite oil-price of non-citizens, most of whom are involved in the
not significantly strained. including the following key units.
In recognition of the necessity of economic § Economic Development Board: tasked with
reform, in 2008 the government launched its attracting foreign direct investment
8 Economic Vision 2030 initiative, with a goal (FDI);
of a diversified and dynamic economy, § Tamkeen: tasked with transforming the
private sector. The remaining 25% of the labor force ●● Tamkeen: tasked with transforming the private
consists of citizens, most of who are also associated sector into the main source of economic growth;
with private sector activities. Women are active in the
labor force yet participate at a rate that is below the ●● Telecommunications Regulatory Authority: tasked
world average. with ensuring a high quality of information and
communications infrastructure;
1.3.3. Economic Vision 2030 ●● Labor Market Regulatory Authority: tasked with
In concert with other Gulf countries, Bahrain has been
active in exploring economic diversification strategies managing the large pool of migrant workers
to wean the economy away from oil dependency. Prior in a manner that ensures the growth of job
to the new millennium, these efforts had been largely opportunities for Bahraini citizens; and
unsuccessful, partially due to the absence of suitable
alternatives, but also due to the lack of adequate ●● Information and eGovernment Authority: tasked with
pressure to make tough policy decisions, as state digitizing government services.
finances were not significantly strained.
As a result of Vision 2030, Bahrain’s economy today
In recognition of the necessity of economic reform, differs significantly the turn of the millennium.
in 2008 the government launched its Economic Vision Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has now become
2030 initiative, with a goal of a diversified and dynamic an important source of jobs and growth; private
economy, including diversified energy sources. The enterprises receive targeted support, as do citizens
vision has three guiding principles: sustainability, seeking to gain professional qualifications that
competitiveness, and fairness. These principles were contribute to modern human capital. In addition,
then translated into three sets of aspirations, as Information and Communication Technologies
outlined in the bullets below: (ICT) infrastructure is comparable to that found
in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
●● Economic: The emphasis is on growth in productivity Development (OECD) economies. Moreover, the
(rather than rising oil production and oil prices) number of Bahrainis working in the private sector has
becoming the primary source of economic growth; risen considerably while many government services
have become electronic, leading to vast improvements
●● Governmental: This focuses on government in quality and delivery time (Naumann et al., 2018).
transitioning away from a generator of economic
activity toward that of a regulator, while improving Government agencies are continuing in the
its efficiency, and removing barriers to private implementation of Economic Vision 2030, as the
sector innovation; and economy remains highly dependent upon oil, albeit
less dependent than it was in the past. The fiscal
●● Societal: The emphasis is on providing citizens with problems caused by a mixture of the global financial
high quality education and healthcare, ensuring crisis and falling oil prices have forced the government
a secure and safe environment, and providing a to launch a fiscal balancing program in 2018, with the
safety net for those less fortunate. assistance of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. As
part of the program, Bahrain introduced a value added
The vision is distinct from previous diversification tax in 2019.
efforts across the Gulf due to its comprehensive
and strategic nature, as it was conceived based on the 1.3.4. Key economic challenges
assumption that its implementation would require high Despite high levels of per capita mineral deposits,
levels of coordination between relevant governmental Bahrain is poorly endowed in virtually every other
organizations. Moreover, several new governmental resource that is associated with a modern, successful
organizations were founded under the vision’s umbrella economy. This makes the process of diversifying
including the following key units. the economy very challenging, and distinct from the
challenge that other, oil-dependent economies have
●● Economic Development Board: tasked with attracting faced in the past, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and
foreign direct investment (FDI); Mexico; or that face today, such as Algeria, Iraq, and
Libya.

9
Bahrain’s small size and population means that it By coincidence, the most recent GAP was launched
has a very small domestic market, undermining the around the same time as the UN Sustainable
country’s ability to exploit economies of scale in Development Goals (SDG) framework. Given the
production, which is normally a critical precursor to significant overlap between the SDGs and Bahrain’s
sustainable technological development. As part of the Economic Vision 2030, the Bahrain government
GCC, Bahrain has had access to its single market since set about integrating the GAP with the SDGs. The
its inception in 2008. However, this has been a very Bahrain government is now committed to the SDG
recent development, and the benefits of access to this program, and delivered its first voluntary national
economic zone have yet to be fully realized. report during July 2018, and takes steps to ensure that
policy plans are articulated in terms of the language of
Being a SIDS presents an additional set of challenges. the SDGs
Bahrain is missing many of the key ingredients
conventionally required to build a modern economy,
most notably the means to create an agricultural
1.4.2. Environment
In 1995, environmental and wildlife laws were passed,
surplus. This makes Bahrain fundamentally dependent with the goals of protecting the environment, preserving
upon foreign trade, amplifying the challenges of food
species, and rehabilitating suitable habitats for wildlife.
and water security. In addition, Bahrain has added
In 1996, the Supreme Council for the Environment
exposure to natural disasters such as recurring sand
(SCE) was established to formulate environmental
and dust storms and rising temperatures.
policy associated with the implementation of these
laws. The SCE has significant executive authority,
Finally, Bahrain’s presence in the Middle East introduces
including the ability to issue environmental regulations,
a series of geopolitical challenges stemming from
to monitor adherence to those regulations, and to fine
its proximity to several combat theaters, which bring
those who fail to comply. The SCE also coordinates
with them the threat of spillover violence, including
the actions of other governmental organizations,
terrorism. Among other things, this adversely affect
including ministries, as it seeks to realize its mission of
global investment possibilities in the region. For a small
protecting the environment.
country like Bahrain, where foreign direct investment
is a central component of the country’s economy
In 2006, the Bahrain government launched a formal
strategy, any inhibitor to investment represents a
environmental strategy, which features a series of
difficult challenge.
strategic goals in a variety of domains, including air,
water, agriculture, the marine and coastal environment,
1.4. Policy setting tourism, transport, and waste management. The plan
Policymaking relevant to climate change takes place at was subsequently approved by the Cabinet and the core
multiple levels. At the multilateral/international level, pillars of environmental policy have been integrated
Bahrain is party to many international conventions, into Economic Vision 2030.
including the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 1999 Montreal
Protocol on ozone depletion, and the 2013 Beijing In 2019, Bahrain finds itself in a very different
Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. At the national situation compared to the one of 2006. This is due
level, Bahrain has been active in formulating policy to changes to the economy, and changes in global
relative to sustainability, the environment, energy, and attitudes and regulations relating to climate change, as
climate change itself, each of which is summarized in well as the recent launch of the SDG framework. As
the subsections below. such, the SCE is currently working on a new set of
environmental policies.
1.4.1. Sustainability
Government action plans (GAPs) are the main 1.4.3. Energy
policymaking mechanism to operationalize Economic In 2014, the Sustainable Energy Center (SEC)
Vision 2030. The most recent GAPs cover the period -previously Sustainable Energy Unit- was launched.
2015-2018 and contain explicit steps and performance The SEU is a joint project with the United Nations
indicators for the near-term realization of the Development Program (UNDP) and focuses on
sustainability objectives in the economic vision. developing policies that promote energy efficiency and
renewable energy, with associated benefits to reducing

10
carbon emissions and improving local air quality. vehicles, and street lighting;

To date, the SEU has launched two major initiatives, ●● Supply-side efficiency standards: This focuses on
namely the National Renewable Energy Action Plan electricity generation, including efficiency
(NREAP) and the National Energy Efficiency Action enhancements for the transmission and distribution
Plan (NEEAP), each of which is outlined in the of electricity, and the installation of smart meters;
paragraphs below.
●● District cooling: This involves the introduction of
NREAP has two primary targets: having 5% of energy highly efficient, industrial-grade equipment to
(255 MW of installed capacity) from renewable sources produce space cooling for buildings through an
by 2025, and 10% (710 MW of installed capacity) by insulated underground piping network; and
2035 (SEU, 2017a). The plan seeks to realize these
targets by a mixture of solar, wind, and waste-to- ●● Green building initiatives: This involves retrofitting of
energy technologies and involves a mixture of public government buildings; and other initiatives; and
and private investment. When fully implemented, it is
expected to avoid about 392,000 tonnes of CO2 per ●● Subsidy reform: This involves reforms to both power
year. Three main policies have been established to subsidies and those that affect transport to offset
realize the targets, as follows: perverse incentives for wasteful consumption.

●● Net metering: This will enable consumers to

generate on-site, grid-connected, renewable
1.4.4. Climate change
While NREAP and NEEAP are the flagship
energy, for example via the installation of solar components of Bahrain’s energy policy, they also
panels on roofs; represent an important pillar of Bahrain’s climate
change policy. Other pillars include project-based
●● Feed-in tariffs: This is a tender-based mechanism initiatives for greenhouse gas mitigation and public
to support renewable energy characterized by awareness raising about climate change, as outlined
long-term power purchase agreements; and below.
●● Mandates: This refers to renewable energy ●● Project-level initiatives: Two projects have been
mandates for new buildings. The Bahrain launched. The first is BAPCO’s carbon recovery
Petroleum Company’s (BAPCO) 5 MW solar plan, which finds industrial applications for
plant, completed in 2014, is an example of efforts the waste CO2 associated with its oil extraction
at increasing the contribution of renewable energy. activities. The other is a carbon dioxide
recovery unit launched by Gulf Petrochemicals
NEEAP is a complementary initiative (SEU, 2017b). Industries Company (GPIC) in 2009, a first for a
After extensive consultations with stakeholders, the petrochemicals company in the Middle East.
SEU established the target of a 6% reduction (about
6,000 GWh) in final energy consumption by 2025. ●● Education-based initiatives: This involves improving
It is estimated that this would lead to a cumulative education and awareness on climate change
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 3.4 million primarily by introducing changes in educational
tonnes of CO2 by 2025. Twenty two main initiatives curricula in primary schools. In addition, specific
have been established to realize this target, including: proposals for educational reforms were delivered
to the Ministry of Education on the basis of
●● Building codes: This involves the integration of energy studies of how other countries have introduced
efficiency objectives into regulations governing climate change into educational curricula.
the design, construction, and maintenance of
structures. The new Bahrain International Airport,
currently under construction, will be NEEAP-
compliant;

●● Demand-side efficiency standards: This involves new

minimum standards for lighting, appliances, motor

11
1.5. List of References
Albuflasa, H., 2018. Renewable Energy in Bahrain. Naumann, C., Al-Ubaydli, O., Abdulla, G. and Alabbasi,
Bahrain National Human Development Report A. 2018. Bahrain National Human Development
Background Paper. Report.

Al-Dawood, T., 2018. Fisheries Vulnerability to Sustainable Energy Unit (SEU), 2017a. The Kingdom
Climate Change, Climate Change Third Communiqué of Bahrain – National Renewable Energy Action Plan
Kingdom of Bahrain Project. (NREAP), January.

Al-Doseri, A., 2018. The impact of renewable energy Sustainable Energy Unit (SEU), 2017b. The Kingdom
on the Bahrain economy. Bahrain National Human of Bahrain – National Energy Efficiency Action Plan
Development Report Background Paper. (NEEAP), January.

Bahrain Center for International and Energy Studies, United Nations Development Programme, 2016.
2018. Bahrain Human Development Report 2018: Human Development Report.
Pathways to Sustainable Economic Growth in Bahrain.
Vousden, D. P., 1988. The Bahrain marine habitat
Bahrain Information and eGovernment Authority, survey. A study of the marine habitats in the waters
2019 (IeGA). (http://www.iga.gov.bh/en/) of Bahrain and their relationship to physical, chemical,
biological, and anthropogenic influences. Project
Burt J. A., Al-Khalifa, K., Khalaf, E., AlShuwaikh, B. Report, Vol. 1, Environmental Protection Technical
and Abdulwahab, A. 2013. The continuing decline of Secretariat. 179 pp.
coral reefs in Bahrain. Mar. Poll. Bull., 72: 357–363.
World Bank, Forest area available at https://data.
Energy Information Administration, International worldbank.org/indicator/ag.lnd.frst.zs; accessed
Energy Statistics available at https://www.eia.gov/ February 2019.
beta/international; accessed February 2019.
World Bank, Permanent cropland available at https://
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.CROP.
Nations (FAO), FAOSTAT database available at ZS?view=chart; accessed February 2019.
http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC; accessed
February 2019. World Bank, Agricultural land available at https://
data.worldbank.org/indicator/ag.lnd.agri.zs; accessed
Hamadeh, R., Jaradat, A., Jahrami, H., Al Sayyad, A., February 2019.
Omran, H., Jailani, M., Seyadi, K., and Sufian, S., 2018.
Bahrain’s Third National Communication Report Zainal, K., Al-Madany, I., Al-Sayed, H., Khamis, A.,
under UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Al Shuhaby, S., Al Hisaby, A., Elhoussiny, W., Khalaf,
- Vulnerability Adaptation: Human Health, Arabian E., 2012. The cumulative impacts of reclamation
Gulf University. and dredging on the marine ecology and land-use in
the Kingdom of Bahrain, Marine Pollution Bulletin,
Heritage Foundation, 2019. Bahrain economic Volume 64, Issue 7, July 2012, Pages 1452-1458.
freedom score, available at https://www.heritage.org/
index/pdf/2019/countries/bahrain.pdf Zubari, W., Alaradi, M., AlShaabani, A., 2018. Water
Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
IMF, World Economic Outlook Database 2019 Change in the Kingdom of Bahrain, Climate Change
LMRA, Labor Market Regulatory Authority, Bahrain Third Communiqué Kingdom of Bahrain Project.
Labor Market Indicators Database 2019

Madany, I.M. & Ali, S.M. & Akhter, M.S., 1987.

The impact of dredging and reclamation in Bahrain.
Journal of Shoreline Management. 3. 255-268.

12
2.
Greenhouse
Gas Inventory

Greenhouse Gas Inventory

National Circumstances 13 01
2. Greenhouse Gas Inventory
2. Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2.1. Introduction (IPCC, 2000).
This chapter presents estimates of Bahrain’s
2.1. greenhouse
Introduction warranted by adequate data availability and
anthropogenic gas emissions (GHG) and
data quality.
sinks forThis the chapter
year 2006, presents estimates through
with estimates of Bahrain’s
2015, 2.1.2. Assumptions
based onanthropogenic greenhouse
the inventory assessment gas emissions
prepared by Alnaser The inventory
Activity data wererelied
obtainedon fromseveral
the guidance
Central Statistics
(GHG)The
et al., (2018). andinventory
sinks forincludes
the year four2006, with
categories: Organization, based on data provided Practice
documents, including the Good by the Supreme
energy; estimates through and
industrial processes 2015, baseduseon(IPPU);
product the Guidance
Council forand Uncertainty Management
Environment. in
Specific properties of
inventory assessment prepared
agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU); and by Alnaser et National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
certain fuels (i.e., density, carbon content, higher
waste. al., (2018). The inventory includes four (IPCC,value),
heating 2000). were provided by BaPCo. Of greatest
categories: energy; industrial processes and import was natural gas as it represents around 90%
product use (IPPU); agriculture, forestry and 2.1.2. Assumptions
of all energy consumed in Bahrain. Where local data
2.1.1. otherMethodology
land use (AFOLU); and waste. Activity
were data wereIPCC
not available, obtained fromvalues
default the Central
were used for
The Base Year for the inventory is 2006, with emission Statistics Organization, based on data value.
estimates 2.1.1.
up through the Methodology
year 2015. The inventory emission factors, carbon content, and net heating
provided by the Supreme Council
Calculations of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO for e) were
was compiled
The Base according
Year for thetoinventory
the methodology for Environment.
out usingSpecific properties of certain 2
is 2006, with carried 100-year global warming potentials
inventories described
emission in theup
estimates 2006 IPCCthe
through Guidelines
year 2015. for fuels (i.e., density, carbon content, higher
(GWP) as recommended by the IPCC in its Fourth
NationalThe Greenhouse Gas Inventories
inventory was compiled according to (IPCC, 2006). heating value), were provided by BaPCo. Of
Assessment Report.
The IPCC’s Inventory Software
the methodology (Version
for inventories 2.54) was
described in greatest import was natural gas as it
used to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
assemble activity and emission factor data. represents around 90% of all energy
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006). 2.2. Overall
consumed results
in Bahrain. Where local data were
The IPCC’sandInventory
Both reference sectoral Software
approaches (Version
were not available, IPCC default
In the subsections that follow, values
GHG wereemissions
used are
2.54) was
implemented used to assemble
to estimate carbon dioxideactivity (COand2) for emission factors, carbon content,
reported at the national level in absolute and netunits of
emissionemissionlevels. factor
The data.
difference between the two heatingdioxide,
carbon value. methane,
Calculations
nitrogen of oxide
carbonemissions,
approaches was acceptable for theapproaches
Base year, wereabout dioxide-equivalent (CO 2e) were carried out
high-GWP gasses, as well as in units of CO2e.
Both reference and sectoral
7.5%. As the sectoral to approach wascarbon
used to dioxide
estimate using 100-year global warming potentials
implemented estimate
(GWP) as recommended by the IPCC in its
methane(CO (CH2) 4) emission
and nitrous levels.
oxideThe (N2O) difference
emission
between
levels, only the results
sectoral two approaches
are reported was inacceptable
the tables
2.2.1.
Fourth Total
Assessment GHG Report.emissions
Table 2-1 presents total GHG emissions and sinks
for the
that follow toBase
allowyear, aboutcomparability
direct 7.5%. As the sectoral
with the 2.2.
for Overall
the year 2006.results
Total GHG emissions in 2006 were
approach approach
used to was usedCH
estimate to andestimate
N O methane
emissions.
4
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emission
2 29,153 CO2e, whichthat
In theGgsubsections includes
follow,20,149
GHG Gg from
levels, only approach
sectoral results areIPCC
reported in the energy; 8,704
emissions areGg from IPPU;
reported at the and 268 Gg
national from
level in waste.
While the Tier-1 of the guidelines
tables that follow to allow direct CO e emissions
absolute units of carbon dioxide, methane, 33 Gg,
from AFOLU were about
were primarily utilized in the calculations for all 2
comparability with the approach used to which afteroxide
nitrogen accounting for high-GWP
emissions, carbon sinks in managed
gasses,
reporting categories, Tier-2 and Tier-3 methods were as wellspaces
as in units e.
of COtotaled
estimate CH4 and N2O emissions. green and parks 2 8 Gg. Net national
used where warranted by adequate data availability and emissions in 2006 were 29,128 Gg, after accounting
While the Tier-1 approach of the IPCC
data quality. 2.2.1.
guidelines were primarily utilized in the for theseTotal
carbon GHG emissions
sinks.
calculations
The inventory reliedforonallseveral
reporting categories,
guidance Tier-
documents, Table 2-1 presents total GHG emissions and
2 the andGoodTier-3 methods wereand used where Energy-related
sinks for theactivities accounted
year 2006. for GHG
Total the dominant
including Practice Guidance Uncertainty portion of GHG emissions in Bahrain in 2006.
Table 2–1: GHG emissions and sinks in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg)
CO2
GHG Sources CO2e Emissions Sinks CH4 N2O PFCs HFCs SF6
1 Energy 20,149 19,686 0 16.7 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Industrial processes and product use 8,704 2,004 0 0.9 0.0 0.81 0.03 0.00
3 Agriculture, forestry and other land 8 7 -25 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
use
4 Waste 268 0 0 9.9 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total National Emissions 29,153 21,697 --- 28.5 0.3 0.81 0.03 0.00
Total Net Emissions 29,129 21,697 -25 28.5 0.3 0.81 0.03 0.00

14 | P a g e
14
Approximately 69% in
emissions
emissions of all GHG
in 2006
2006 were 29,153
were emissions
29,153 Gg are
Gg CO2e,
CO2e, a)a)Carbon
Carbondioxide
dioxideemissions
emissions
associated with
which
which the combustion
includes
includes 20,149Gg
20,149 of
Ggfromfossilenergy;
from fuels 8,704
energy; or
8,704
the release Gg
of
Gg fugitive
from IPPU;
from emissions
IPPU; and 268
and from
268 Gg Gg oilfromand waste.
from gas
waste.
CO2e
operations. CO2e emissions
emissions
Industrial processes fromand
from AFOLU
AFOLU product wereuse
were about
about
33
accounted for 33 Gg,
Gg, which
about which
30% afterafter
of all accounting
accounting
GHG emissions, for carbon
for carbon
sinks
followed by sinks
the inin managed
waste managed
sector thatgreengreen
accounted spacesforand
spaces and
about parks
parks
totaled
1% of totaltotaled 88Gg.
emissions. Gg.Emissions
Netnational
Net national from emissions
emissions
agriculturalinin20062006
were
were 29,128
29,128 Gg,
Gg, after
after accounting
accounting
and land use activities are negligible, less than 0.2% of for
for these
these
total nationalcarbon
carbon sinks.
sinks.
emissions.
Energy-related activities
Energy-related activities accounted
accounted for for the the
2.2.2. GHG dominant
dominant emissions portion of
portion ofby GHG
GHG type emissions inin
emissions b)b)High
HighGWP
GWPgases
gases(PFCs,
(PFCs,HFCs,
HFCs,SF6)
SF6)
Bahrain inin 2006.
Bahrain 2006. Approximately
Approximately 69% 69% of of allall
The following bullets provide an overview of total
GHG emissions
GHG emissions are are associated
associated with with the the
GHG emissions by all GHG
combustion
combustion of typesfuels
of fossil
fossil for the
fuels or the
or yearrelease
the 2006. of
release of
fugitive emissions
fugitive emissions from from oil oil and and gas gas
●● CO2: Total CO2 emissions
operations.
operations. Industrial
Industrial were estimated
processes
processes andto
and be
product
product
21,697 Gg,useor
use 74% of Bahrain’s
accounted
accounted for abouttotal
for about 30%
30% greenhouse
of all
of all GHGGHG
emissions in the yearfollowed
emissions,
emissions, 2006. Figure
followed bybythe 2-1a
the summarizes
waste
waste sectorthat
sector that
the contribution
accounted associated
accounted for for about with
about 1% CO
1% of emissions
of2total
total emissions.
emissions.at
Emissions
both theEmissions
sector and from from agricultural
subsector agricultural
levels. and and land land use use
activities are
activities are negligible,
negligible, less less thanthan 0.2% 0.2% of of
●● High GWP total
total national
national
gases: emissions.
emissions.
Together, PFCs, HFCs, and SF6
c)c)Methane
Methaneemissions
emissions
emissions accounted for the second largest share
2.2.2. GHG
2.2.2.
of greenhouse GHGemissions.
gas emissionsOn
emissions bytype
by type
a CO2e basis,
total emissions
The were estimated
Thefollowing
following bulletsprovide
bullets to be about
provide ananoverview6,676 of
overview of
total GHG
total
Gg, or about GHG emissions
23% ofemissions by
Bahrain’s by allall GHG
total GHG types
greenhouse types for for
emissions.the
the Ofyear
year
this 2006.
2006.
amount, PFCs (i.e., PFC-14 and
PFC-116)•• accounted
CO2:2:Total
CO Total forCO
CO 6,608 Gg COwere
emissions
22emissions
e, or estimated
about
2wereestimated
99% of theto high
to be GWP
be 21,697 gas
21,697 Gg, contribution.
Gg, or or 74%74% of Figure
of Bahrain’s
Bahrain’s
2-1b summarizes the
total greenhouse
total contribution
greenhouse emissions at
emissions inin theboth the the year
year
sector and subsector
2006. Figure
2006. levels.
Figure 2-1a 2-1a summarizes
summarizes the the
contribution associated
contribution associated with with CO CO22
●● CH4: Methane emissions
accountedatat
emissions boththird
forboth
the the
the sector
sector
largest shareand and d)d)Nitrous
Nitrousoxide
oxideemissions
emissions
of greenhouse subsector
subsector levels. Total CH4 emissions
levels.
gas emissions.
were estimated
•• HighHightoGWP
be
GWP about 28.6
gases:
gases: Gg, or about
Together,
Together, PFCs,
PFCs, 2.5%HFCs,
HFCs,
of Bahrain’sandtotal
and SF greenhouse
SF66 emissions emissions
emissions accounted on
accounted for a CO for2ethe the
basis. Figuresecond
2-1c summarizes
second largest
largest share
share ofthe contribution
of greenhouse
greenhouse gas gas
associated with CH4 emissions
emissions.
emissions. On aa atCO
On both
CO 2e the
2e sector
basis,
basis, total
total
and subsector levels. were
emissions
emissions were estimated
estimated to to be be about
about
6,676 Gg,
6,676 Gg, or or about
about 23% 23% of of Bahrain’s
Bahrain’s
●● N2O: Nitrous total
total greenhouse
greenhouse
oxide emissions.
emissionsemissions.
were very Of Of this
small this
amount,
compared toamount,
other GHGs. PFCs (i.e.,
PFCs (i.e., PFC-14
Total PFC-14
N2O emissions and PFC-
and PFC-
116)
116) accounted
accounted for
for 6,608
6,608
were estimated to be only about 0.22 Gg, or about Gg
Gg CO
CO 2 e,
2 e, or
or
about
about 99%
99% of
of the
the
0.2% of Bahrain’s total greenhouse emissions high
high GWP
GWP gas
gas
Figure2-1a:
Figure 2-1a:Breakdown
BreakdownininGHG
GHGemissions
emissionsby
bygas
gastype
type
contribution.
on a CO2e contribution.
basis. Figure Figure Figure 2-1b summarizes
2-1b
2-1d summarizes summarizes
the andemitting
and emittingsector
sectorand
andsubsector,
subsector,2006
2006
the
the contribution
contribution
contribution associated with N2O emissions at
at both
both the
the sectoratand
sector and
subsectorlevels.
subsector levels. from 29,153 Gg COTotal
emissions.
emissions. e in 2006
CH44toemissions
2Total CH
about 39,902
emissions wereGg
were
both the sector and subsector levels.
•• CH CH4:4: Methane
Methane accounted
accounted for for thethe third third CO2e in estimated
2015, or roughly
estimated tobe
to 3.5%/year.
beabout
about 28.6Gg,
28.6 Emissions
Gg, about of
orabout
or
largest share
largest share of of greenhouse
greenhouse gas gas CO2 are increasing
2.5% of
2.5% of slightly above
Bahrain’s
Bahrain’s this greenhouse
total
total rate, 4.0% per
greenhouse
2.2.3. GHG emissions trends year. Notably, HFC emissions are experiencing the
Figure 2-2a presents the trend in total GHG emissions 15||PPaaroughly
15
highest levels of annual growth in Bahrain, ggee
by type of GHG for the Base Year 2006 and projected 33% per year.
GHG emissions through 2015. Over the 2006-2015
period, total emissions have increased by about 37%;

15
Figure 2-2b presents
emissionsthe trend
emissions onona ain
COnet
CO GHG
basis.emissions
2e2ebasis. Figure
Figure2-1c 2-1c a)a)Net Netemission
emissiontrend
trendbybygas
gastype,
type,2006-2015
2006-2015
by emitting sector for thethe
summarizes
summarizes Base
the Year 2006
contribution
contribution and
associated
associated
projected GHGwith emissions
with CH4 in 2010 and
CH4emissions
emissions 2015.
atatboth Energy
boththethesector
sector
remains the main and component
andsubsector
subsectorlevels. responsible
levels. for the
overall increasing trend in GHG emission levels. Over
emissions
• • NN 2on
2O: a CO2eoxide
O:Nitrous
Nitrous basis.emissions
oxide Figure 2-1c
emissions were
werevery
a)very
Net emission trend by gas type, 2006-2015
the 2006-2015 period,
summarizes CO e emissions from energy
smallthe
small contribution
compared
compared
2 totoother associated
other GHGs.
GHGs.Total Total
use havewith
increased
CH4
NN2O by 40%, oratwere
emissions
emissions about
both 3.8%sector
the
estimated per year,
totobebeonly
2O emissions were estimated only
due primarily to
and subsectorincreased
about levels.
about 0.22 energy
0.22 Gg, use
Gg, oror aboutfor electricity
about 0.2%0.2% ofof
generation, desalinated
Bahrain’s
Bahrain’s water
total production,
total greenhouse
greenhouse and processon
emissions
emissions on
• N2O: Nitrous oxide emissions were very
heat in manufacturing.
a aCO Notably,
CO2e2ebasis. CO e emissions from
small compared to Figure
basis. 2-1d
2 2-1dsummarizes
FigureGHGs.
other summarizes
Total the
the
waste, though contribution
small in absolute
contribution terms, increased
associated
associated with
with by
N N 2O2O
N2O emissions were estimated to be only
153%, or aboutemissions
11% per year.
emissions atat both
both the
the sector
sector and
and
about 0.22 Gg, or about 0.2% of b)b)Net
Netemission
emissiontrend
trendbybyemitting
emittingsector,
sector,2006,
2006,2010,
2010,2015
2015
subsector
subsector levels.
levels.
Bahrain’s total greenhouse emissions on
2.3. Sectoral
2.2.3.
results
a CO2e basis.
2.2.3. GHG
Figure 2-1d summarizes the
GHGemissions
emissionstrends
trends
contributionthatassociated
In the subsections follow, GHG with N2O are
emissions
emissions
Figure at
2-2a both
reported at the sectoral level in absolute total
Figure 2-2a presents
presents the
the
the sector
trend
trend inin and
totalGHG
units GHG
of
b) Net emission trend by emitting sector, 2006, 2010, 2015
subsector
emissions levels.
by type of
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide emissions,Year
emissions by type of GHG
GHG for
for the
the Base
Base Year
high-GWP 2006 2006and
gasses, andasprojected
projected
well as in GHG
GHGunitsemissions
of CO2ethrough
emissions through
2.2.3. 2015.
GHG
2015.emissions
Over
Over the thetrends
2006-2015
2006-2015 period, period, total total
Figure emissions
emissions
2-2a presents havethe increased
have increased
trend in total bybyGHGabout
about 37%; 37%;
2.3.1. Energy
from
from 29,153sector
29,153 GgGg
emissions by type of GHG for the Base Year COCO 2e2e in in 2006
2006 to to about
about
The 2006
energy 39,902
and 39,902
sector
projected Gg Gg CO
includes
GHG CO2e2emissions
inin 2015,
eelectricity 2015, oror roughly
generation,
through roughly
water2015. 3.5%/year.
3.5%/year.
desalination, Emissions
Emissions
Over the 2006-2015 period, total and
manufacturing ofof CO CO 2 2are
industriesare increasing
increasing
construction,
emissions slightlyhaveabove
slightly
other above
fossil
increased this
fuel rate,
thiscombustion
by rate,
about 4.0%
4.0% per year. Figure
per year.
activities,
37%;
Figure2-2b:
2-2b:Trends
Trendsinintotal
totalGHGGHGemissions
emissionsbybygas gastype
type
and
andemitting
emittingsector
sector
and from
fugitive Notably,
Notably,
emissions
29,153 GgHFC HFCfrom
CO emissions
emissions
oil2006& gas are experiencing
areoperations.
experiencing
2e in to about
Table39,902 the
the
2-2 provides
Gg CO highest
highest
a breakdownlevels
levels of of annual
annual
in energy growth
growth inin
sector
2e in 2015, or roughly
these
Bahrain,
Bahrain, source
roughly
roughly categories.
33%
33% perper Relative
year.
year. to 20062.3.
GHG 3.5%/year.
emissionsEmissions
for the yearof2006 CO2for arethese
increasing
source 2.3. Sectoral
Sectoralresultsresults 2015
overall anthropogenic GHG Figure 2-2b: Trends in total GHG emissions by gas type
slightlyFigure
categories. above2-2b
Figure
Relative this
2-2b rate,
overall4.0%
topresents
presents the
the per inyear.
trend
trend
anthropogenic innetnetGHG GHG InIn thethe subsections
subsections that that follow,
follow, GHG GHG
emissions in Bahrain, the 20,149 Gg and emitting sector
Notably,
GHG emissions HFC
emissions
emissions emissions
byby emitting
in Bahrain, emitting are
the 20,149 experiencing
sector
sector Ggfor COthe
for the
e Base
Base emissions
emissionsare arereported
reportedatatthe thesectoral
sectorallevel levelinin
CO2e represents about 69% of total 2
the highest
represents Year
Year2006
about levels
2006
69% and
and
of of
total annual
projected
projected
national growth
GHG
GHG emissions. in
emissions
emissions inin absolute
absolute units
units ofof carbon
carbon dioxide,
dioxide, methane,
methane,
national emissions.
Bahrain, 2010roughly
2010 and33%
and 2015.
2015. perEnergy
year. remains
Energy remains the the mainmain2.3. nitrogen Sectoral
nitrogenoxide results
oxideemissions,
emissions,high-GWP
high-GWPgasses, gasses,
Figure 2-3 Figure
component
component
illustrates 2-3 illustrates
theresponsible
responsible
breakdown the breakdown
for
for
in the
the
energy- overall
overall as well as in units of CO
Figure 2-2b presents the trend in net GHG as well as in units of CO 2e.
2e.
related GHG
emissions
inemissions
energy-related
increasing
increasing
by emitting trend
trend in
insectorGHG
in
2006 GHGGHG emissions
and
for emission
emission
the2015 Base by levels.In the subsections that follow, GHG
in levels.
YearIn
activity. Over
2006
2006the
Over
2006,andthe
and 2015 byfrom
2006-2015
2006-2015
projected
emissions GHG
activity.
period,
period, CO
emissions
natural In
CO22006, emissionsemissions
e2egas-
emissions
in 2.3.1.
are reported at the sectoral level in
2.3.1. Energy
Energy sector
sector
fromemissions
energy from
use have natural gas-fired absolute units of carbon dioxide, methane,
fired2010 andfrom
electricity 2015. energy
generated Energy use
onsite have atincreased
remains increased
the main
manufacturing byby40%, 40%,oror
nitrogen The oxide
The emissions,
energy
energy sector high-GWP
sector includes
includes gasses,electricity
electricity
electricity
about
about 3.8%
3.8% per generated
per year, year,the onsite
due
due primarilyat
primarily toto
and component
construction responsible
enterprises for
showed the overall
highest
manufacturing
increased
increased inenergy
energy anduse useconstruction
for
for electricityas well generation,
electricity in units of CO2e.water
asgeneration, water desalination,
desalination,
shareincreasing
of GHG trend
emissions,
enterprisesdesalinated
GHG about
showed the
emission
56% oflevels.
total manufacturing
manufacturing industries
industries and
and construction,
construction,
Over generation,
the generation,
2006-2015 desalinated
period, CO waterhighest
water
2e emissions
production,
production,
energy sector
and emissions,
share
and process of heat
process GHGwithininall
heat other
emissions,
manufacturing.
manufacturing. electricity
about Notably,Figure
Notably, 2.3.1. Energy
other
otherfossil
2-3: Breakdown sector
fossil fuel
of GHG fuel combustion
combustion
emissions activities,
associatedactivities, and
with energyand
from energy
generation accounting use have
for increased
about 24%. by
By 40%,
2015, or
the activities, fugitive
2006 fugitive
and emissions
2015emissions from
from oil
oil & & gas
gas operations.
operations.
CO 56%
CO2e2eemissions of total
from energy sector
about
largest 3.8%
shareabsolute
of
emissions
per year,
emissions, 52%, duewaste,
from waste, though
primarily though tosmall
smallininThe energy sector includes electricity
Table
Table2-2 2-2provides
providesa abreakdown
breakdown ininenergy
energy
emissions,
absolute terms,
terms,with allisother
increased
increased associated
byby 153%, with
electricity
153%, oror about
aboutgeneration, water desalination,
increased energy use for electricity the use of
sector gasoline and diesel oil and accounted forfor
electricity production
11% generation
11% per at
peryear. power/desalination
year. accounting for about plants,24%. By manufacturing TableGHG
sector GHG 2-3 emissions
emissions
industries and for
summarizes forthethe
GHGyear
construction,year2006 2006 for
emissions
generation, desalinated water production, about 13% and 11% of total emissions from energy-
with electricity2015, the largest
generated onsiteshare of emissions,and
at manufacturing 52%, other
is associated
fossil with industrial
fuel combustion activities,processes
and and
and process heat in manufacturing. Notably, consuming activities in2006.
2006Industrial
and 2015, respectively.
construction associated
enterprises
Table
Table 2–2:
2–2:GHG GHG with
drops
emissions electricity
emissionsto 31%.
from
fromenergy production
energy use at
useininBahrain,
Bahrain, 2006
2006 product
(Gg)
(Gg) use in
fugitive emissions from oil & gas operations. processes are
CO2e emissions from waste, though small in Fugitive emissions of methane, a gas that has a
power/desalination
GHG
GHGSources
Sources plants, with electricity COCO2e2e COCO the second
CHCH
Table 2-22 provides4 a breakdownlargest
NN O O emitter
PFCs
PFCs of anthropogenic
HFCs
in energyHFCs SF6
SF6
absolute Electricity
terms, increased by 153%, or about 4,905 high
2
global
4
warming
2 2
potential, and carbon dioxide
Transport generated
Electricity & & water
are onsite
water at manufacturing on and
4,905 4,900
4,900
sector GHG GHG emissions
0.1
0.1
emissions for in
0.0
0.0
theBahrain,
0.0
0.0
year 2006 accounting
0.0
0.0
for 0.0for
0.0
11% peractivities
year.
Manufacturing
based overwhelmingly
Manufacturing&&enterprises
construction
construction drops to 31%. 11,229
11,229 11,218
11,218 0.2
0.2of CO 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0
construction 8,704 Gg 2e, or about 30% of national
Transport 2,583 2,527
Transport 2,583 2,527
CO2e 0.8 0.8
emissions 0.1
0.1 0.0
in 2006. 0.0
IPPU0.0 is the 0.0
0.0 0.0
only
Transport
Table 2–2:OtherGHGcombustion
Other emissions activities
from
combustionactivities energy use in
activities areBahrain,based 2006
0 0 (Gg) 0 0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0
Fugitive
Fugitiveemissions
emissions(oil &&gas) 1,432 CO2 1,041
sector15.6in whichPFCs high-GWP
0.0 0.0 gases
0.0 0.0 are emitted
0.0
GHG Sourcesoverwhelmingly on
(oil the use of CO
gas) gasoline
2e and
1,432 1,041
CH4 15.6
N2O 0.0 HFCs 0.0
SF6 0.0
ElectricityTotal
& water
National Emissions 4,905 20,1494,900 19,686 (i.e., PFCs,
0.1 16.7 0.0 HFCs, 0.0
0.2 and 0.0
SF6).
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
diesel oil and accounted for about 13% and
Total National Emissions 20,149 19,686 16.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manufacturing & construction 11,229 11,218 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11% of total emissions from energy- The mineral and chemical 1616|0.0|industries
PPa aggee
Transport 2,583 2,527 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
consuming
Other combustion activities
activities in 2006 and
0
2015, 0
represent
0.0 0.0
the major
0.0
sources
0.0
of 0.0
emissions
respectively.
Fugitive emissions (oil & gas)Fugitive emissions1,432 of methane, 1,041 from industrial
15.6 0.0 processes
0.0 0.0 and product0.0 use.
a gas
Total National Emissions that has a high global
20,149 warming19,686 For
16.7 the mineral
0.2 industry,
0.0 GHG
0.0 emissions
0.0 are
potential, and carbon dioxide accounted for associated with aluminum and iron & steel
about 7% and 6% of all GHG emissions in production. Together, they 16 |account
P a g e for about
16
the energy industries sector in 2006 and 2015, 93% of total sectoral GHG emissions. For
respectively. the chemical industry, about 6% of emissions
 emissions in Bahrain, the 20,149 Gg
CO2e represents about 69% of total
national emissions.
accounted for2015 aboutby7% and 6%
activity. While of all stillGHG the 2006 2015
Figure
emissions in the 2-3 illustrates
energy industries the breakdownsector in from 2006
dominant share, emissions
in energy-related GHG emissions in
and 2015, aluminum production decline from
respectively.
2006 and 2015 by activity. In 2006,
92% in 2006 to 79% in 2015. Other
emissions from natural gas-fired
2015 sharp
Other electricity
combustion by activity. changes
activities
generated and
While in manufacturing/
onsite
the the
still emission 2006
at 2015
construction
dominant profile
accounted are
share, associated
for negligible
emissions with iron and
amounts
from of
manufacturing and construction
the total steel production
emissions,
aluminum whose
with sharethese ofshares
declineCO2efrom emissions
remaining
enterprises showed the highest
negligible
92% increases
throughout
in tothe from 1%
2006-2015 to 10%. In
period.
share of2006 GHG 79% in 2015.about
emissions, Other Figure 2-3: Breakdown of GHG emissions associated with energy
sharp addition,
changes the
in share
the of
emission fugitive
56% of total energy sector activities, 2006 and 2015
profileemissions
arewithassociated from
with refrigeration,
iron and
2.3.2.emissions,
Industrial
steel stationary
whose share
allProcesses
airof
other electricity
conditioning,
CO e emissions
& and fire
generation accounting for 2 about 24%. By Table 2-3 summarizes GHG emissions
Product increasesprotection
Use from share 1% of also
to emissions, increases
10%. In 52%, is Figure 2-4:
2015, the largest associated
Breakdown withof GHG industrial
emissionsprocesses
associated with and IPPU
addition,substantially
the GHG share - from of 1% toassociated
fugitive 6%. For activities, 2006 and 2015
Table 2-3 summarizes
associated with emissions
electricity production at product use in 2006. Industrial processes are
emissionsthe chemical from industry (i.e., ammonia
refrigeration,
power/desalination
with industrial processes andplants,
product withuse electricity
in 2006. the second
related GHG largest emitter of
emissions in anthropogenic
2006is due and to2015
and
stationary airmethanol
conditioning, production),
and fireemitterthe 2006 to 95% in 2015. This a largeby
generated
Industrial processes onsite
are the atsecond
manufacturing
largest and of GHG
activity. emissions
While in
still Bahrain,
the accounting
dominant share, foremissions
relative emission
protection also drops shares in 2015 remain like
increases reduction in agriculture lands beyond 2007
construction
anthropogenic GHGenterprises
emissions inshares to 31%.
Bahrain, accounting 8,704 Gg
from of CO2e,production
aluminum or about 30% of national
decline from 92%forin
those
substantially in
- 2006,
from with
1% to 6%. of
For CO2e emissions
Figure 2-4: Breakdown and
of GHG henceemissions a reduction
associated in
withthe IPPU need
for 8,704 Gg of CO2e, activities
or aboutdecrease
30% of national CO2eabout CO 2e emissions in 2006. IPPU is the only
Transport showing a slight areslightly based
activities,
from 2006 and
2006 2015
to 79% in 2015. Other sharp
nitrogen fertilizer. Total emissions decline changes in by
the
emissionstheinchemical
2006. industry
IPPU is (i.e.,only
the ammoniasector in which sector in which high-GWP gases are emitted
overwhelmingly
6.1% in 2006 on the use of
to 4.2% in gasoline
the and
high-GWP and methanol production), theyear 2015. emission
2006
(i.e.,
about
to
PFCs,
profile
95% third
HFCs, in are byassociated
2015. 2015,
and SF6). Thisfrom to to
with
is due 33iron
atolarge
21andGgsteel
of
dieselgases
oil and areaccounted
emitted (i.e.,
for PFCs,
about 13% HFCs, andand whose CO e. CO2e emissions
share2 inofagriculture increases from 1%
relative emission shares in 2015 remain like reduction lands beyond 2007
SF6). 11% of 2.3.3. totalAgriculture,
emissionsforestry,
those in 2006, with shares of CO2e emissions
from other energy- land use The
to 10%. mineral
In addition,and the chemical
share of industries
fugitive emissions
and hence a reduction in the need for
consuming activities in 2006 and 2015, represent 2.3.4.the Waste
majorstationary
sources of air emissions
showing Tablea slight 2-4decrease
summarizes slightly GHG from about emissionsfrom nitrogenrefrigeration,
fertilizer. Total emissions conditioning,
decline by and
respectively.
The mineral and Fugitive
chemical emissions
industries of methane,
represent from
fire industrial
protection processes
also increases and product use.
substantially - from 1%
6.1% in associated
2006 to 4.2% withinagriculture,
the year 2015. forestry, and about Table third by2-5 2015,summarizes
from to 33 to GHG 21 Ggemissions
of
a gassources
the major that has
of a high
emissions global
from warming
industrial For the mineral industry, GHG emissions are
other land use in 2006. Agricultural practicestoCO 6%. For the chemical
2e. associated with waste industry (i.e., ammonia
management activity and
in
potential,
processes andare and carbon
product use. dioxide
For the accounted
mineral for
industry, associated with aluminum and iron & steel
2.3.3. Agriculture, forestry, other
the smallest source of anthropogenicmethanol land use 2006. Relative the
production), to relative
overallemission
anthropogenic
shares in
GHG about 7% and
emissions 6%
areemissions of all GHG
associated with emissions
aluminum inand production. Together, they account for about
GHG in Bahrain, accounting for 2.3.4.
2015 Waste
GHG emissions, the 268 Gg CO2-equivalent
iron &the
Table
energy
steel
2-4 summarizes
industries
production. sector
Together, inGHG2006
they
emissions
and
account2015, 93% of total sectoral GHG emissions. Forof CO2e
for ofemissions
remain like those in 2006, with shares
only 32.8 Gg of
associated with agriculture, forestry, andCO 2e, or about 0.11% represented
showing aboutslight1.0%
a about ofemissions
decrease total national
slightly from
Table
the chemical 2-5 summarizes
industry, GHG
6% of emissions
about respectively.
93% oftotal totalnational
sectoral CO 2e emissions in 2006. Mostabout 6.1%
GHG emissions. For emissions. Waste-related GHG
other land use in 2006. Agricultural practices associated
are associated in 2006
withwith waste to 4.2%
management
ammonia in the activity in are
and methanol
emissions
year 2015.
Other
the chemical of combustion
the
industry, emissions
about
are the smallest source of anthropogenicfrom
6% activities
ofAFOLUemissions and
activities
are are associated with solid waste disposal,
2006. Relative
production. Fugitive to overall
emissions anthropogenic
associated
manufacturing/construction
associated
GHG associated
withemissions
ammoniainand with methane
methanol
Bahrain, accounted
production
production.
accounting for
for from including incineration, as well as wastewater
GHG
2.3.3.
with emissions,
Agriculture,
refrigeration, the 268 Gg
stationary airCO2-equivalent
forestry,
conditioning, other
negligible
Fugitive livestock.
emissions amounts On
associatedofa net
only 32.8 Gg of CO2e, or about 0.11% ofthe basis,
total
with AFOLU
emissions,
refrigeration,emissions treatment and discharge.
and fire protection account fortotal
represented about 1.0% of national
a negligible
with
stationary are even
these
air national
total conditioning, COlower,
shares equal
andremaining to 8.0negligible
fire protection Gg account
after carbonland use
2e emissions in 2006. Most emissions.
share ofWhile Waste-related
sectoral relative
emissions.shares GHG emissions
in 2015 remainare roughly
throughout
for a negligible the
of the sequestration 2006-2015
share offrom
emissions of AFOLU
sectoral period.
24.8 emissions.
Gg activities
at managed are greenTable 2-4 summarizes GHG emissions
associatedsimilar with
to those solid waste
in 2006, is associated
disposal,
there a sharp
spaceswith are taken into production
account. Relative Figure 2-4 illustrates the breakdown in
associated methane from to netwith including incineration,
increase
agriculture, inforestry,
waste as welland asother
sector wastewater
emissions,
land use overin
2.3.2. Industrial
national Processesemissions
emissions, & Productfrom Use AFOLU industry-related GHG emissions in 2006 and
Figure livestock.
2-4 illustrates On a net the basis,breakdownAFOLUinemissions industry- treatment
2006. double,and as
Agricultural discharge.
shown
practices in Figure
are the 2-6.smallest source
are even activities
lower, accounted
equal to 8.0 forGg only
after0.03%.
carbon
Table 2–3: GHG emissions fromatindustrial processes
While relative shares in (Gg)
2015 remain roughly
sequestration
Figure of
2-524.8 Gg
illustrates managed
the breakdown green andinproduct use 2.4.in Bahrain,
Quality 2006assessment
similar to those in 2006, there is a sharp
spaces
GHG are taken into account.
Sources
AFOLU-related total GHG Relativeemissions
to
CO2net
e inCO2 CH4 N2O PFCs HFCs SF6
Ammonia 305 305 increase The
0.00 in waste
quality
0.00 of sector
Bahrain’s
0.00 emissions,
GHG
0.00 over
inventory
0.00 is
national 2006emissions,and emissions
2015 by from AFOLUEnteric
activity.
Methanol double, primarily
as shown 0.00based 0.00on2-6.
in Figure three key0.00 factors:
activities accounted forassociated
fermentation only 0.03%.with 225livestock202 0.94 0.00
Aluminum 7,999 1,391 methodology,
0.00 0.00 0.81modeling, 0.00 and
0.00 input
Figuredominates
Cement 2-5 illustratesemissions, theincreasing
breakdown from 0in80% in 02.4. 0.00 Quality 0.00assessment 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iron & steel
AFOLU-related total GHG emissions106in 106 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ferroalloys
Table 2–4: GHG emissions 0
and sinksEnteric 0The quality
0.00 of Bahrain’s
0.00 0.00 GHG inventory
0.00
from agriculture, forestry and other land use in Bahrain, 2006 0.00 is
(Gg)
2006 and 2015 by activity. 0primarily
0.00 based 0.00 on0.00
Glass 0
CO2 three 0.00
key factors:
0.00
fermentation associated with livestock
Fugitive 68 0methodology,
0.00 0.00 modeling,
0.00 0.03 0.00
GHG Sources CO2e Emissions Sinks CH4 N2O PFCs input
and HFCs SF6
dominates
Total National
emissions, increasing from 80% in
Urea Emissions 8,704 2,0043.3 0.94 3.3 0.00 0.0 0.81 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.00
0.0 0.0 0.0
Enteric fermentation 26.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Table 2–4:Aggregate sources; non-CO2
GHG emissions emissions
and sinks sources on forestry
from agriculture, 3.3 and other3.3
land use0.0in Bahrain,
0.0 0.017 |(Gg)
2006 P a g 0.0
0.0 e 0.0
land
Other -24.8 CO2 0.0 -24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
GHG Sources
Total National Emissions CO2e Emissions
32.8 Sinks
6.5 CH---
4 N21.0
O PFCs
0.0 HFCs
0.0 SF60.0 0.0
Urea 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net National Emissions
Enteric fermentation 26.2 8.0 0.0 6.5
0.0 -24.8
1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.00.0 0.0
Aggregate sources; non-CO2 emissions sources on 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 180.0
|Page
land
Other -24.8 0.0 -24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total National Emissions 32.8 6.5 --- 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net National Emissions 8.0 6.5 -24.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

18 | P a g e
17
 Effluent 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.07 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total National Emissions 267.7 0.0 9.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
of anthropogenic Environment GHG Programme.
emissions This in Bahrain,
consisted of 2006 2015
accounting forsystematic
only 32.8 review
Gg of CO of the
2
e, orinformation
about 0.11%being
of total national CO2e emissions
assembled, including in 2006. Most of
activity datathe and
emissions from AFOLU activities are associated
associated calculations. Expert feedback with was
methane productioncommunicatedfrom livestock.
to the Supreme On a net basis, for
Council
AFOLU emissions Environment to ensure that improveGg
are even lower, equal to 8.0 future
after carbon inventories
sequestration wouldof benefit
24.8 Ggfrom the process.
at managed
green spaces Other are takenquality
into account.
control Relativemeasures to netwere
national emissions, emissions from AFOLU
undertaken at the sector and category level activities
accounted forthrough only 0.03%.
consultations between and among Figure 2-5: Breakdown of total GHG emissions
local experts. While feedback from local associated with waste management activities,
Figure 2-5 illustrates
reviewers the wasbreakdown
not formally in AFOLU-
documented 2006 and 2015
related total GHG emissions in 2006 and 2015 by
activity. Enteric fermentation associated with livestock 2.4.1. Uncertainty assessment 19 | P a g e
dominates emissions, increasing from 80% in 2006 There is minimal uncertainty associated with
to 95% in 2015. This is due to a large reduction in methodology as appropriate QA/QC procedures and
agriculture lands beyond 2007 and hence a reduction the IPCC Software were used as the main tool in the
data/assumptions. Each is briefly 2006
inventory. On the other 2015
hand, there is uncertainty
in the need for nitrogen fertilizer. Total emissions
described in the subsections that associated with some input data and assumptions (i.e.,
decline follow.
by about third by 2015, from to 33 to 21 Gg
of CO2e. emission factors and activity data). Where local data
were unavailable, default emission factors provided in
2.4.1. Uncertainty assessment
the 2006 IPCC Guideline were adopted, thus reflecting
2.3.4.There Wasteis minimal uncertainty the uncertainty embedded in such factors. Another
Table 2-5 summarizes
associated with GHG emissionsas associated
methodology source on uncertainty is related to the iron and steel
appropriate
with waste management QA/QC activity procedures
in 2006. Relative and aluminum industries; process emissions which
andanthropogenic
to overall the IPCC Software GHG were used as the 268
emissions, were identified as key categories and therefore a higher
Gg COthe 2
main toolrepresented
-equivalent in the inventory.about 1.0% On of total
tier should be applied in future inventories. Given this
nationaltheemissions.
other hand, there is uncertainty
Waste-related GHG emissions information, the overall uncertainty associated with
associated
are associated withsolid
with somewaste input disposal,
data and including
assumptions total emissions is considered to be between medium
incineration, as well(i.e., emission factors
as wastewater treatment and to high uncertainty.
and activity data). Where local data Figure 2-6: Breakdown
discharge. of total GHG emissions associated with
were unavailable, default emission AFOLU activities, 2006 and 2015
factorsdata/assumptions.
provided in the 2006 Each IPCCis briefly 2006 2015
While relative shares in 2015 remain roughly similar during the process, the inventory does
Guideline were
described adopted,
in the thus reflecting
subsections thatthe
to thoseuncertainty
in 2006, there is a sharp increase
embedded in such factors. in waste incorporate their feedback and the final result
sector emissions, follow.
over double, as shown in Figure offer the best possible estimates of emissions
Another source on uncertainty is related to
2-6. the iron and steel and aluminum industries; given the current state of scientific
2.4.1. Uncertainty assessment knowledge and regulatory and institutional
process emissions which were identified as
There
key categories is minimal uncertainty
and therefore a higher tier framework in Bahrain. For future
2.4. Quality assessment
shouldassociated
The quality appliedwith
ofbe Bahrain’s inGHG methodology
futureinventory
inventories.as
is
inventories, the National Information
appropriate QA/QC procedures System – currently under development -
primarilyGiven
basedand thisthreeinformation,
on the IPCC keySoftware the overall
factors: methodology,
were used as should greatly improve quality control
uncertainty associated with total emissions is
modeling, andtheinput data/assumptions. Each is
consideredmain to betool in the medium
between inventory.toOn high aspects of the process.
briefly described the in thehand,
other subsections
there is that follow.
uncertainty
uncertainty.
associated with some input data and 2.4.3. Key category analysis
2.4.2. assumptions
Quality control (i.e., emission factors The analysis of key sources was performed in
and activity data). Where local data Figure 2-6: Breakdownwith
accordance of total
the GHG
IPCC emissions associated with
2006 Guidelines.
Qualitywere control was mostly
unavailable, defaultprovided
emissionby AFOLU activities, 2006 and 2015
To facilitate the identification of key sources,
expertsfactors
providedprovidedby the in the United
2006 Nations
IPCC
Guideline were adopted, thus reflecting the during the process, the inventory does
Table 2–5: GHG emissions from waste in Bahrain, 2006 (Gg) incorporate their feedback and the final result
uncertainty embedded in such factors.
GHG Sources CO2e CO2 CH4 the Nbest
offer 2O PFCs estimates
possible HFCs ofSF6
emissions
Another source on uncertainty is247.5
Solid waste related to0.0 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
the iron and steel and aluminum industries;
Incineration 0.0 0.0
given
0.0
the
0.0
current
0.0
state
0.0
of 0.0
scientific
Effluentprocess emissions which were identified 20.2 as0.0 knowledge
0.0 0.07and regulatory
0.0 and
0.0 institutional
0.0
key categories and therefore a higher tier framework in Bahrain. For future
Total National Emissions 267.7 0.0 9.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
should be applied in future inventories. inventories, the National Information
Environment
Given Programme.
this information, This consisted the ofoverall System – currently under
2006 2015 development -
18 systematic review associated
uncertainty of the informationwith total being
emissions is should greatly improve quality control
assembled, including activity
considered to be between medium to high data and aspects of the process.
2.4.2. Quality control most significant influence on the country’s emissions
Quality control was mostly provided by experts where the analysis helps to prioritize the national
provided by the United Nations Environment GHG mitigation measures.
Programme. This consisted of systematic review of
the contribution
the information of sourceincluding
being assembled, categories to
activity The energy sector
considered in Kingdom
not possible at thisoftime
Bahrain continued
to make
data and emissions
associated per calculations.
gas was classified Expertconsistent
feedback toimprovements
be the mainforcontributor of
every one of them. GHG emissions
with the potential
was communicated to the Supreme Council key category list as for (>%85) and was found to be a key category in 2006
The inventory category list resulting from
presented in Volume 1, chapter 4, inventories
table 4.1, and
Environment to ensure that improve future this subsequent
analysis can years. Therefore,
provide it is important
a quantitative
of the 2006
would benefit fromIPCC the Guidelines.
process. that activity data from this sector is always available
framework for the national GHG inventory
A key category source analysis was carried toteam
ensure that the an
to develop results are accurate.
inventory improvementThe accurate
out using
Other quality the measures
control Level Assessment,
were undertaken and theat reporting
plan by outlining more complete and is also
of GHG emissions in this sector
the sectorresults
and are shownlevel
category on Table
through 2-6.consultations
The level important
transparent forinformation.
GHG mitigation analysis purposes. It
betweenassessment
and among identifieslocal experts.categories
While feedback that allows the country to prioritize the sources emissions/
contribute to at least
from local reviewers was not formally documented 76% of national 2.5. within
sinks Challenges and recommendations
the national inventory system..
during theemissions
process, in the
the current
inventory GHG doesinventory.
incorporate The primary challenge to the development of
their feedback and the final
The key category analysis allowed result offer the the best Totheimprove
currentthe national
GHG GHGisinventory,
inventory it may be
data-related;
possiblenational
estimatesGHG inventory
of emissions given team to identify
the current state necessary
namely to the consider applying
availability, more accurate
accuracy, and or
which
of scientific categoryandhas
knowledge the most
regulatory significant
and institutional higher Tier methodologies,
consistency of data. These collect morearedetailed
challenges
framework influence on the For
in Bahrain. country’s
futureemissions
inventories, where the activity
rooted in administrative and institutionalemission
data, and/or develop country-specific
the analysis helps to prioritize
National Information System – currently under the national barriersEach
factors. that impede the application
GHG emitted from eachof locally
category was
GHG-mitigation
development should greatly measures.
improve quality control available separately.
considered technical capacity to collect,
These activity data require
aspects Theof the process. manage, resources,
additional and analyze
and it is pertinent
considered data.
not possible
energy sector in Kingdom of Bahrain
Recommendations to address these
at this time to make improvements for every one of
continued to be the main contributor of
challenges include the following:
them.
2.4.3.GHG Keyemissionscategory (>85%) and was found to be
analysis
a key category in 2006 and subsequent years. • Establish and enforce a national statistical
The analysis of key sources was performed in Thedata
inventory category
Therefore, it is important that activity data system, which list
logsresulting from this
operational, andanalysis
accordancefromwith the IPCC
this sector is always 2006 Guidelines.
available to ensure To can production data andframework
provide a quantitative information,
for theinnational
facilitatethatthetheidentification of key
results are accurate. The accurate sources, the GHG governmental
inventory and private
team to organizations;
develop an inventory
contribution
reporting of source
of GHG categories
emissionstoin emissions
this sector per is improvement plan by outlining more complete and
gas wasalso classified consistent withmitigation
the potential key • Establish strategic collaboration
important for GHG analysis transparent
agreementsinformation.
between SCE and public
categorypurposes.
list as presented
It allows in Volume
the country 1, chapter 4, table
to prioritize organizations to ensure a sustainable
4.1, of thethe sources
2006 IPCC Guidelines. within the
emissions/sinks supply
2.5. of related data; and
Challenges
national inventory system..
A key category
To improve sourcetheanalysis
nationalwas GHG carried out using
inventory, it recommendations
• Given the above two points, a National
the Level Assessment, and the results
may be necessary to consider applying more are shown on TheInventory System (NIS)
primary challenge to theis development
developed in of the
Table 6-2. The level cooperation with key sectors in namely
the
accurate or assessment
higher Tier identifies categories
methodologies, current GHG inventory is data-related;
country;
the
that contribute
collect more to at least %76activity
detailed of nationaldata,emissions
and/or availability, accuracy, and consistency of data. These
in the current GHG inventory.
develop country-specific emission factors. • Hold are
challenges periodic workshops
rooted in for and
administrative public
institutional
Each GHG emitted from each category was organizations
barriers that impedeforthetraining and ofeducating
application locally available
The keyconsidered
category analysisseparately.
allowed These activity GHG
the national data critical authorities with the IPCC emissions
technical capacity to collect, manage, and analyze
inventory require
team to additional
identify whichresources,categoryand has it theis inventory
pertinent system;
data. Recommendations to address these
Table 2–6: Key Category Analysis Results
CO2e
emission Cumulative
# Sector Category GHG (Gg ) % %
1 Energy Manufacturing Industries and Construction CO2 11,218 38% 38%
2 Energy Energy Industries CO2 4,900 17% 55%
3 Energy Transportation CO2 2,527 9% 64%
4 Industrial Processes Metal Industry CO2 1,497 5% 69%
5 Energy Fugitive emissions from fuels CO2 1,041 4% 73%
6 Energy Fugitive emissions from fuels CH4 391 1% 74%
7 Industrial Processes Chemical Industry (ammonia) CO2 305 1% 75%
8 Industrial Processes Chemical Industry (methanol) CO2 202 1% 76%
Subtotal - key categories 22,081 76%
Total National emissions 29,153 100%

20 | P a g e
19
challenges include the following:
●● Develop an integrated database of relevant
●● Establish and enforce a national statistical data information including annual statistical abstracts
system, which logs operational, and production and annual reports from specific entities.
data and information, in governmental and private
organizations; 2.6. List of References
●● Establish strategic collaboration agreements Alnaser, W.E., Abdulla, A.Y., Alabbasi, O., Albuflasa,
between SCE and public organizations to ensure H. M., Haji, S., Ibrahim, K., Buali, Q., Zainal, K.,
a sustainable supply of related data; Al-Alawi, S.S.K., Nasser, H.A., and Al-Ammal, H.M.,
2018. Third Report of the GHG in the Kingdom of
●● Given the above two points, a National Inventory Bahrain, Final version, 16 August.
System (NIS) is developed in cooperation with key
sectors in the country; IPCC, 2000. Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
●● Hold periodic workshops for public organizations
for training and educating critical authorities with IPCC, 2006. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
the IPCC emissions inventory system; Inventories

●● Call for and support the conduction of a national

project to determine local emission factors related
to the indigenous resources;

●● Establish a GHG inventory committee with

high-level representation from key ministries/
institutions, having clear oversight and
coordination authority; and

20
3.
Vulnerability
& Adaptation

Vulnerability & Adaptation

National Circumstances
21 01
3. Vulnerability & Adaptation
3. Vulnerability & Adaptation
This chapter presents an overview of assessments of In Bahrain, dense grey mangrove forests are found in
sectors that are highly vulnerable to climate change in the Gulf of Tubli, a sheltered and shallow bay with
Bahrain, namely mangroves, coastal zones, and water extensive intertidal mudflats located between Bahrain
resources. TheThis chapterhave
assessments presents
helped to an develop
overviewa ofIsland and of marine and terrestrial
Sitra island (see Figurespecies1-3).
(Bennett
Theyand are
assessments of sectors that
better understanding of potential adaptation priorities. are highly Reynolds, 1993; Semesi, 1998;
distributed across four major mangrove association Ong and
vulnerablehave
All of the assessments to climate change in Bahrain,
been peer-reviewed by areas: RasGong,
Tubli, 2013). Moreover,
Sanad, Sitra1- mangroves
and Sitra2-. can
These areas
namely mangroves, coastal
local scientists and government officials and shared zones, and water sequester carbon at a much faster
provide shelter for native species of flora and fauna rate that
resources.
with a wide range The assessments
of stakeholders in Bahrain,have helped toand helpterrestrial
including to reduceforests and turbidity
seawater can do soinindefinitely
the bay (Al- if
both the generaldevelop
publica andbetter understanding
private sector. Some of potential
of Maslamani protected from human activity (Windham-
et al., 2013).
adaptation priorities. All of
the key findings are summarized in the sections below. the assessments Myers et al., 2018). Most of the carbon taken
have been peer-reviewed by local scientists up by these “blue carbon” ecosystems is
Additional vulnerability assessments for fisheries and The Gulf of Tubli offers resting and feeding sites for
and government officials and shared with a stored below ground in coastal soils that is
public health are in process and will be reported in several resident and migratory birds as well as nursery
wide range of stakeholders in Bahrain, often thousands of years old.
future communications.
including both the general public and private sites for commercial shrimp (Abido & Mohammad,
In Bahrain, dense grey mangrove forests are
sector. Some of the key findings are2001). Mangrove ecosystems are comprised of
found in the Gulf of Tubli, a sheltered and
3.1. Mangrove summarized habitats in the sections below.mangrove stands (i.e., Avicennia marina), several
types of shallow bay with extensive
mangrove-associated plantsintertidal mudflats
(e.g., Halopeplis
Additional
Changing conditions in thevulnerability
Arabian assessments
Gulf pose for located
and numerous other plants occupyingSitra
between Bahrain Island and
fisheries
incremental threats to and public health
remaining mangrove process andperfoliata),
are in stands high
island (see Figure 3-1). They are distributed
will be reported in future communications. intertidal areas (e.g., Aeluropus littoralis).
in Bahrain. While mangroves have historically been across four major mangrove association
adversely impacted by a wide range anthropogenic areas: Ras Tubli, Sanad, Sitra-1 and Sitra-2.
3.1. Mangrove habitats Three main
influences they have become a conservation priority Theseanthropogenic
areas provide shelter factorsforhave
nativeadversely
species
Changing conditions in the Arabian Gulfimpacted ofBahrain’s
flora mangrove
and fauna forests,
and leading
help to toreduce
sharp
in recent years due to an emerging national awareness
pose incremental
of their significant ecological and threats to remainingreductions
socioeconomic
in their
seawater spatialinextent
turbidity the bayand health. First,
(Al-Maslamani et
mangrove stands in Bahrain. Whileextensive land
al., reclamation
2013). has been conducted along
value. This section summarizes the results of studies
to document mangroves
their biological have characteristics,
historically been adverselythe coasts of the Bay since the 1970’s. Less than half
spatial The Gulf of Tubli offers resting and feeding
impacted by value
a wide rangeto anthropogenic of the initial marine area of the bay was still intact
extent trends, and ecological in order establish sites for several resident and migratory birds
influences they have become a conservationby 2008 - i.e., 12 km2 compared to 25 km2 before
important baseline information that could be used in as well as nursery sites for commercial
priority in recent years due to an emergingreclamation activities (Naser, 2014). This led to the
future vulnerability assessments (Abido and Al-Jeneid, shrimp (Abido & Mohammad, 2001).
national awareness of their significantuprooting of large areas of mangroves.
2018; El-Kholei, 2018). and socioeconomic value. This Mangrove ecosystems are comprised of
ecological
mangrove stands (i.e., Avicennia marina),
section summarizes the results of studies toSecond, slurry discharge from sand washing plants at
several types of mangrove-associated plants
3.1.1. Background
document their biological characteristics,the western shores and southern end of the Bay have
(e.g., Halopeplis perfoliata), and numerous other
spatial extent
Mangrove ecosystems have trends, and ecological
a significant ecologicalvalue in
plants occupying
led to excessive siltation that highhasintertidal
damagedareas (e.g.,
the fragile
order value
and socioeconomic to wherever
establishthey important
are found baseline
in mangrove Aeluropus littoralis).
root system. Third, treated wastewater is
information
the world’s coastal areas. They thatformcould be used inoffuture
the foundation
vulnerability assessments discharged at a rate of 100,000 m3 per day into the Bay
highly productive and biologically rich habitats
(Abido and Al-Jeneid, 2018;
for a broad range of marine and terrestrial
El-Kholei, 2018).
species (Bennett and Reynolds, 1993; Semesi,
1998; Ong and Gong,
3.1.1. 2013). Moreover,
Background
mangroves can sequester carbon at a much
faster rate thatMangrove
terrestrialecosystems
forests and havecan a
significant ecological and
do so indefinitely if protected from human
socioeconomic value wherever
activity (Windham-Myers et al., 2018). Most of
they are found in the world’s
the carbon taken up by
coastal theseThey
areas. “blueform carbon”
the
ecosystems is stored below
foundation ground
of in coastal
highly
soils that is often thousandsand
productive of years old.
biologically
rich habitats for a broad range Figure 3-1: Left: Location of Tubli Bay; Right: Mangrove stands on the
east coast of Sitra Island (Survey & Land Registration Bureau-Bahrain)
22 | P a g e
22
from the Tubli wastewater treatment plant, leading to Second, biological characteristics of Tubli Bay
eutrophication levels of nitrogen and phosphorus in mangroves were assembled from available studies.
the Bay, that adversely alter nutrition of mangroves. This provided a baseline of information which could
This is compounded by frequent illegal dumping of serve as an essential point of departure for exploring
municipal solid main
Three wastes anthropogenic
by tankers. factors have potential climate remain,
only 31 hectares changeabout
impacts
a fifthand adaptation
of their
adversely impacted Bahrain’s mangrove options.
spatial extent in 1980.
These factors
forests,have led totothe
leading lossreductions
sharp of about ainthirdtheirof
total mangrove area in Thereanare indications that such
of theefforts have
spatial extent andTubli Bay;
health. from
First, 150 hectares
extensive land Third, economic valuation services and goods
begun to stabilize mangrove forest areas in
in 1980 reclamation
to about 100 hectares in 1992 (FAO,
has been conducted along the 2005) provided by Bahraini mangroves was undertaken. This
Tubli Bay. Figure 3-2 shows that total
coastsTubli
In response, of theBay Baywassincedeclared
the 1970’s. Less than
nationally as a provided a basis by which to understand the benefits
mangrove and mangrove-associated
protectedhalfarea
of the initialand
in 1995 marine
Law area of thedesignated
2006/53 bay was provided
vegetation area has actually anincreased
by mangroves within economicincontext
Tubli Baystill
as intact
a naturalby reserve.
2008 - i.e., 12 kmit2was
In 1997, compared to
designated amenable
spatial for consideration
extent over thein subsequent
most recent adaptation
25 km 2
before reclamation activities
internationally as a RAMSAR Site (Public Commission (Naser, planning dialogues.
monitoring period, 2005-2010, by 0.7%/year
2014). ThisofledMarine
for the Protection to the Resources,
uprooting of large areas
Environment and 3.0%/year, respectively. This growth is
of mangroves.
and Wildlife, 2006). In 2010, the latest year for which focusedResults
3.1.3. on the Ras Tubli, Sitra-1, and Sitra-2
data areSecond,
available, onlydischarge
slurry 31 hectaresfromremain, about a
sand washing associations, with assessment
the comparatively much
Preliminary qualitative
fifth of plants at theextent
western shores and southern larger Sanad association showing
the declines
their spatial in 1980. The bullets below summarize results of the
end of the Bay have led to excessive siltation over the period.
literature review portion of the assessment:
There arethat has damaged
indications that the
suchfragile
effortsmangrove
have begun rootto
system. Third, treated wastewater
stabilize mangrove forest areas in Tubli Bay. Figure 3-2 is 3.1.2. Approach
discharged at a rate andof 100,000 m per day
3 ●● Exposure: Key driving factors controlling
shows that total mangrove mangrove-associated Tomangrove
assess the growth
impact ofand climate change in include
into the Bay from the Tubli wastewater distribution
vegetation area has actually increased in spatial extent mangroves
treatment plant, leading to eutrophication seawater temperature/salinity, tidal3-part
in Tubli Bay, a fluctuation,
over the most recent monitoring period, 2005-2010, methodology
sedimentationwasrates,
applied. First,
wave a preliminary
energy, sea levels, and
levels of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Bay, qualitative assessment was undertaken to
by 0.7%/year and 3.0%/year, respectively. This
that adversely alter nutrition of mangroves. atmospheric temperature (Kathiresan, 2001; Noor
growth is focused on the Ras Tubli, Sitra-1, and Sitra-2 gain a better understanding of the factors that
This is compounded by frequent illegal et al., 2016; Gilman et al., 2008). With climate
affect mangrove vulnerability to climate
associations,
dumpingwith the of comparatively
municipal solid much wastes
larger Sanad
by change,
change. Themany
focus of these
of the factors was
assessment are on
projected
association showing declines over the period.
tankers. to directly
exposure, affect impact,
sensitivity, Tubli Bay - atmospheric
and adaptative
These factors have led to the loss of about a capacity. This information was2014),
temperatures will increase (IPCC, thenseawater
3.1.2. third
Approach
of total mangrove area in Tubli Bay; temperature
combined withand
knownsalinity will be altered
or projected (AGEDI,
climatic
To assessfrom 150 hectares in 1980 toinabout
the impact of climate change mangroves
100 2015); and though actual levels are
changes in the region to develop an indicative difficult to
in Tubli hectares
Bay, a -3part methodology
in 1992 (FAO, 2005) was In
applied. First,
response, determination of the
project, sea level risevulnerability of Tubli(Church
is a virtual certainty
Tubli qualitative
a preliminary Bay wasassessment
declared wasnationally as ato
undertaken Bay
et mangroves
al., 2013; to climate change.
Cazenave, 2014).
protected
gain a better area in 1995
understanding of the and Law that
factors 53/2006
affect Second, biological characteristics of Tubli
designated Tubli Bay as a natural reserve.
mangrove vulnerability to climate change. The focus In ●●BaySensitivity: Mangroves
mangroves wereautonomously
assembled fromadapt to sea
1997, it was
of the assessment wasdesignated
on exposure, internationally as a
sensitivity, impact, available studies. This provided a baselineand
tide rhythms by controlling the height of extent
RAMSAR Site (Public Commission
and adaptative capacity. This information was then for the of above-ground
information root systems
which could serve aswhere the supply of
an essential
Protection of Marine Resources,
combined with known or projected climatic changes oxygen
point continues through
of departure pores potential
for exploring in the roots for
Environment
in the region andanWildlife,
to develop 2006).
indicative In 2010,
determination climate
storagechange impacts
and efficient O2 and adaptation
transport (Purnobasuki
the latest year for which data are available, options.
of the vulnerability of Tubli Bay mangroves to climate et al., 2017). However, mangroves, particularly
change. the Avicennia marina species, are highly sensitive

Figure 3-2: Left: Spatial extent of mangrove areas in Tubli Bay, 2005 and 2010; Right: Percent change in
spatial extent of mangrove areas in Tubli Bay, 2005 and 2010 (source: Abido et al., 2011).

23 | P a g e
23
 to prolonged seawater flooding and high turbidity sensitivity to prolonged seawater flooding that would
environments which can cause physiological be associated with future sea level rise. Third, there is
degradation (Sayed, 1995; Nguyen et al., 2015). a potentially high impact from sea level rise due to the
With climate change, prolonged inundation inability of landward migration, which also severely
of root systems associated with sea level rise is limits mangrove forest adaptive capacity. Combined,
of vulnerability of climate change in the where mangrove dominates other species,
expected, likely compromising their biological, these factors suggest a high level of vulnerability of
absence of specific adaptation initiatives. and the salt marsh habitat, which can be
morphological, and physiological capacity to climate change in the absence of specific adaptation
Tubli Bay Mangrove characteristics divided into lower salt marshes and upper salt
autonomously respond. initiatives.marshes. Mangrove occupy the MSR habitat,
Direct measurements of biological while other species inhabit the lower salt
●● Impact: Mangroves are canofbeTubli
characteristics adverselyBay,impacted
as per the Tubli Baymarshes Mangrove(Abidocharacteristics
et al., 2011; Abou Seedo,
especially research
by sea level of Abou Seedo et al (2017). Table 3-
rise, depending on factors Direct measurements
2017). of biological characteristics of
1 summarizes
such as coastal topography average
and landwardphysicalbarriers
parameters Tubli Bay, as per the research of Abou Seedo et al (2017).
for the Ras Tubli, Sitra-1, and Sitra-2 Table 1-3 Leaf area of mangroves averages about 8.1
to migration (Faraco, et al., 2010; Field, 1995; summarizes average physical parameters for
P-values the Ras cm
2
, with leaf dry matter content averaging
associations
Wilson, 2017). On of theTubliother Bay.hand,
The low higher about 286.4 gm perSitra2-
Tubli, Sitra1-, and kg (seeassociations
Table 3-1) of — Tubli
the
in the far-right column
temperatures may extend the northern and indicate a high level Bay. Thespecific
low P-values in the- far-right column energy indicate
leaf area which reflects
of statisticalof significance
southern distribution mangroves (Field, and hence 1995) high a high level of statistical significance andmhence high
spending - averages about 6.5 2
per kg.
confidence in the
while increased CO2 atmospheric concentration robustness of the confidence in theleaf
robustness
Average pigmentofconcentration
the characterization. is 0.55
characterization.
could enhance photosynthesis and improve water mg per gm for Chlorophyll A and 0.23 mg
Mangrove
use efficiency (Reef ettreeal., heights
2015). In range fromfuture
Bahrain, 1.0 to 5.5 Mangrove per treegram heights forrange from 1.0 toB.
Chlorophyll 5.5 meters,
Total
sea level meters,
rise in Tubliwith aBay mean of about
represents the2.7most
meters. with a Chlorophyll,
mean of about and the 2.7Chlorophyll
meters. Each A/B tree ratio is
Each tree
critical potential is composed
impact of climate of several
change.trunks,
Since and composed ranges are 0.77
of several mgand
trunks, permeangram trunkanddiameter
2.83,
high-densitymean trunkareas
urban diameterbound varies
thebetween
mangrove 2.2 and varies betweenrespectively;
2.2 and while
12.5carotenoids
cm, with anaverage
averageabout of 5.3
12.5 cm, with an average
stands, there is no possibility of mangrove of 5.3 cm. The mean 0.19 mg per gram.
cm. The mean density of trees was 4,577 per hectare,
landward density
migration, of trees
andwas hence4,577significant
per hectare,sea with a with a mean basal area of 11.4 m2 per hectare.
Economic value of Tubli Bay mangroves
meanlikely
level rise will basalresult
area of is 11.4 m2 per hectare.
the eventual loss of
Mangroves provide a range of vital
remainingBased
mangrove on this
areasinformation,
within the Bay, mangroves
absent in Based on this information, mangroves in Bahrain can
ecological services that can be valued within
effective Bahrain
adaptation can initiatives.
be classified as a forest of low be classified as a forest of low structural development.
an economic framework (Costanza et al.,
structural development. The shrubby forms The shrubby
1997; formsBroadhead of mangrove
2011; CI, in Tubli
2008). BayWhile
is due
●● Adaptive of mangrove
capacity: Thein Tubli
adaptive Bay iscapacity
due to the of fact to the fact these services have not yet been valuedof inits
that the species live on the edge
that the species live
mangroves to climate change is tied to its on the edge of its geographical distribution in aTubli
stressful
economic terms for Bay condition.
mangroves,
ecological geographical
and socio-economic distributionsystemsin in awhich stressful
their value is already well understood in
condition.
they are found (Ellison and Zhou, 2012; Trzaska While mangroves
qualitativedominate plant communities
terms relative to the following in Tubli
While
et al., 2018). mangroves
In particular, the adaptive dominate
capacity ofplant Bay, there services:
are about 14 salt marsh species occupying
mangrovescommunities in Tubli on
depends primarily Bay,their
theretolerance
are about 14 more salty soils. These species include Arthrocnemum
§ Tourism services: These include recreational
salt marsh species occupying
to new atmospheric/marine conditionsmore and salty
theirsoils. macrostachyum, activities, asHalocnemumwell as intrinsic strobilaceum,
services
capacity toThese
extend their species include From
spatial distribution. Halopeplis perfoliata, Salicornia herbacea, Suaeda
Arthrocnemum
the ecological perspective, macrostachyum,
the adaptive Table 3–1: Avicennia marina attributes
Halocnemum
capacity of the Avicennia marina strobilaceum,
species
Halopeplis perfoliata, Salicornia Portion Attribute Units Average Range P-value
found in Tubli Bay to changes in projected Tree Height meters 2.7 ± 0.2 0.02
herbacea, Suaeda aegyptiaca, and Diameter cm 5.3 ± 0.1 0.0003
atmospheric/marine conditions is
Suaeda maritima. Plant life Basal Area meters per hectare 11.4 ± 1.2 0.4463
currently not well
includes understood. However,
chamaephytes, Stand Leaf Area Index meters per m2 1.2 ± 0.03 0.3308
from the cryptophytes,
socio-economic perspective, Density trees per hectare 4,577 ± 406 0.6178
hemicryptophytes, Height cm 12.4 ± 0.97 <0.0001
there is no capacity for
phanerophytes, andmangroves
therophytes. to Aerial Diameter cm 0.83 ± 0.05 <0.0001
root
extend their spatial distribution landward Density roots per per m2 149.6 ± 16.9 0.057
The relative density of
due to surrounding densely settled urban Seedling Density Height cm 8.4 ± 1.96 0.0012
mangrove ranges between 35 seedlings per m2 6.9 ± 2.05 0.0439
areas. Area cm2 8.1 ± 0.13 <0.0001
and 46%, while relative cover Dry matter content gm per kg 286.4 ± 2.41 0.3384
varies between 69 and 75%, Leaf Specific leaf area m2 per kg 6.5 ± 0.07 0.1991
The vulnerability of mangroves is
and the relative frequency of a function Thickness 10 -6 meters 0.0005 ± 3.4E-6 0.2271
of each of the above factors. First, the Bay Sclerophylly index gm/square decimeter 0.6 ± 0.01 <0.0001
the species ranges between 29 Relative water content % 75.2 ± 0.5 <0.0001
has high exposure
and to climate
40%. change
Main impacts habitats– Total chlorophyll 0.77 ± 0.03 0.0643
especially sea level
includerise. Second,
the the mangrove
Avicennia Chlorophyll A
mg per gm of fresh
0.55 ± 0.03 0.1623
Pigment Chlorophyll B 0.23 ± 0.02 0.0034
marina speciessubmerged
found in the Bay rootsdisplay high
(MSR), Chlorophyll A/B
weight
2.83 ± 0.20 0.2568
Carotenoids 0.19 ± 0.02 0.0095

25 | P a g e
24
aegyptiaca, and Suaeda maritima. Plant life includes ●● Provisioning services: This refers to a wide range of
chamaephytes, cryptophytes, hemicryptophytes, services including commercial fisheries, fuelwood,
phanerophytes, and therophytes. building materials, and traditional medicines For
Bahrain, the most pertinent provisioning service
The relative density of mangrove ranges between is commercial fisheries as Tubli Bay has several
35 and 46%, while relative cover varies between 69 nursery sites for commercial shrimp.
and 75%, and the relative frequency of the species
ranges between 29 and %40. Main habitats include the ●● Supporting services: These include cycling of nutrients;
mangrove submerged roots (MSR), where mangrove maintenance of hydrologic balance, habitats for
dominates other species, and the salt marsh habitat, species; and pollutant processing. Each of these
which can be divided into lower salt marshes and upper is relevant to Tubli Bay, mainly resting and feeding
salt marshes. Mangrove occupy the MSR habitat, while habitats for resident and migratory birds.
other species inhabit the lower salt marshes (Abido et
al., 2011; Abou Seedo, 2017). While these services annually translate into significant
benefits for Bahrain, the actual value of these services
Leaf area of mangroves averages about 8.1 cm2, with in economic terms remains unclear. Translating
leaf dry matter content averaging about 286.4 gm per ecosystem structure and function to an economic
kg (see Table 1-3) — the specific leaf area - which framework of ecosystem goods and services is difficult
reflects energy spending - averages about 6.5 m2 per (e.g., Barbier, et al., 2011; de Groot, et al., 2012). A key
kg. Average leaf pigment concentration is 0.55 mg challenge for successful valuation of mangrove services
per gm for Chlorophyll A and 0.23 mg per gram for is the ability to integrate a physical characterization of
Chlorophyll B. Total Chlorophyll, and the Chlorophyll services (i.e., tourism, regulating, provisioning, and
A/B ratio ranges are 0.77 mg per gram and 2.83, supporting services) with an economic characterization
respectively; while carotenoids average about 0.19 mg of benefits of those services (i.e., direct and indirect
per gram. monetary values).

Economic value of Tubli Bay mangroves To date, only the tourism component of mangrove
Mangroves provide a range of vital ecological services services has been integrated with an economic
that can be valued within an economic framework characterization of benefits (El-Kholei, 2018).
(Costanza et al., 1997; Broadhead 2011; CI, 2008). Preferences and pricing signals of the local population
While these services have not yet been valued in surrounding Tubli Bay were established regarding their
economic terms for Tubli Bay mangroves, their value willingness to pay for the following benefits:
is already well understood in qualitative terms relative
to the following services: ●● Ecotourism as a means to minimize potential
adverse impacts on mangrove ecosystems;
●● Tourism services: These include recreational activities,
as well as intrinsic services associated with cultural ●● Development of environmental awareness and
heritage and support of societal values. For respect of local cultural heritage among the local
example, the Bahrain Tourism and Exhibitions population; and
Authority (BTEA), in collaboration with the
Supreme Council for Environment, launched ●● Empowering visitors and hosts to actively engage in
mangrove tourism in Tubli Bay in 2018 as a way conservation efforts to protect the environmental
of enhancing public awareness of their ecological quality of the Bay.
and cultural value.
Based on current pricing, visitor patterns, projected
●● Regulating services: These include the protection of operating days, and other factors the annual monetary
beaches and coastlines from storm surges, waves value of tourism services provided by Tubli Bay
and floods; reduction of beach and soil erosion; mangroves is around US$ 33,000/year. This estimate
stabilization of land by trapping sediments; and is likely to increase over time as plans to protect Bay
water quality maintenance. Each of these services waters are implemented and infrastructure to support
is relevant to the urban areas surrounding Tubli ecotouristic activities (e.g., cafes, restrooms, etc.) is
Bay. built.

25
3.1.4. Adaptation implications main island of Bahrain, as well as the surrounding
There are several adaptation strategies that are under smaller islands of Muharraq, Sitra, Nabih Saleh, and
consideration to build resilience against climate change Umm Al Nassan. In addition, the Hawar Islands,
risks Tubli Bay mangrove, as outlined below: located about 19 km southeast of the main island, are
a Ramsar site famed for its many bird species, small
Ecosystem services
●● Tubli Bay § observatory: This aimsvaluation: This aims to herds of
to strengthen andArabian oryx, and extraction
groundwater surrounding activities
seas that
introducesystems
existing observation economic valuation
to better as a basis to support(Alothman,
understand et al., 2017).ofGiven
a large population the acute
dugong. Figureland
3-3
the ecological account for the
services value ofbythe
provided market (i.e., providesscarcity
mangrove of the of
the locations country, inland retreat to
these areas.
tourism) and non-market (i.e.,
habitats in Tubli Bay. Activities include monitoring, regulating, accommodate rising sea levels is not a viable
provisioning, supporting)
species mapping, systematic documentation, services that, Most of Bahrain’s population live near the concern
option. It is therefore of significant coastline.
Tubli Bay mangrove habitats provide. It These coastal to policymakers
areas – less because
than 5 of itsabove
meters potentially
current
and dissemination of collected information to
will leverage information developed by the sea levels disastrous impact on land
– have very high population densities (i.e.,resources,
policymakers. Tubli Bay observatory and apply state-of- averageinfrastructure and2)urban communities.
of 2,100 per km and are also the location of
the art ecological valuation methods to in
●● Blue carbon inventory: most The
economic five
and IPCC
social Assessment
activities. Reports
Moreover, some
supportThis aims to augment
of financial planning Bahrain’s
frameworks.
existing GHG emission tracking system to estimate of areasdeveloped
are showing sea level rise projections
evidence to 2100
of land subsidence
and document carbon zones
pools/fluxes in Tubli Bay due to by
oil, simulating
gas, and contributions
groundwater from
extractionindividual
activities
3.2. Coastal
sea level rise components, such
(Alothman, et al., 2017). Given the acute land scarcityas thermal
consistent with international methodological
Sea level rise is one of the primary and most of the country, expansion, and melting
inland retreat toiceaccommodate
from glaciers rising
and
guidance. This will involve data sharing across
certain indicators of climate change. As with sea levels ice issheets. Each subsequent assessment
not a viable option. It is therefore of
institutions, database
all small islanddevelopment, information
developing states, it represents significant
differed fromtoitspolicymakers
previous estimate foroftheits
management, documentation, andtodissemination concern because
an almost existential risk Bahrain. The first high emission, business-as-usual scenario
of the levels potentially disastrous impact on land resources,
and andsecond
rates of national
carbon pool storage.
communications (see Figure 3-4). The upper bound of these
assessed this threat and quantified the extent
●● Ecosystem services valuation:inundation
of potential This aims to introduce the
throughout
economic Kingdom
valuation as under a range
a basis of seaforlevel
to account the rise
value of thescenarios
market (GCPMREW,
(i.e., tourism) and2005; PCPMREW,
non-market
2013).provisioning,
(i.e., regulating, This section supporting)
builds uponservices
and refines
those previous assessments in
that, Tubli Bay mangrove habitats provide. It will order to more
precisely understand
leverage information developedthe risksTubli
by the to Bahrain’s
Bay
observatory and apply state-of-the art ecological and
infrastructure, wetlands, reclaimed lands,
valuation industrial
methods to zones from rising
in support sea levels
of financial
(Aljenaid,
planning frameworks. et al., 2018).

3.2.1. Background
3.2. Coastal zones
Bahrain has six major areas on which most of
Sea level rise its
is one of the primary
population and most are
and infrastructure certain
located.
indicators of These
climate change. As with all
areas include the northernsmall island and
developing states, it represents
southern portions anofalmost
the main existential
island of
risk to Bahrain. The first and second
Bahrain, as well as the surrounding nationalsmaller
communications assessed
islands this threat
of Muharraq, and
Sitra, quantified
Nabih Saleh, and
the extent ofUmm Al Nassan.
potential inundationIn addition,
throughout the theHawar
Kingdom under Islands, located
a range of about 19 km
sea level risesoutheast
scenariosof the
(GCPMREW,main 2005;island, are a Ramsar
PCPMREW, 2013). site
Thisfamed
section for its
builds upon andmanyrefines
bird species, small herds
those previous of Arabian
assessments
oryx, and surrounding
in order to more precisely understand the risksseas that support
to a
large population
Bahrain’s infrastructure, wetlands,ofreclaimed
dugong.lands,Figureand 3-3 Figure : 33-Top: Main islands
provides the locations of these areas.
industrial zones from rising sea levels (Aljenaid, et al., where most of the
2018). Most of Bahrain’s population live near the population and urban
infrastructure is located;
coastline. These coastal areas – less than 5
Right: Largely uninhabited
meters above current sea levels – have very
3.2.1. Background
high population densities (i.e., average of
Hawar Island group off the
Bahrain has six major areas on which western coast of Qatar
2,100 per km 2
) and are alsomost of its of
the location comprising conservation
population and infrastructure
most economicare located.
and socialThese areas
activities. lands (source: Aljenaid, et al.,
include the northern
Moreover, some of areas areof showing
and southern portions the 2018)
evidence of land subsidence due to oil, gas,

26 27 | P a g e
infrastructure estimates
and urbanranges communities.
from 0.59 to 1.1 meters of
sea level rise, with most of the uncertainty
The five IPCC associated
Assessmentwith Reports developed
difficulties sea level ice
in projecting
rise projectionsmassto 2100 by simulating contributions
loss from the Greenland and Antarctica
from individual iceseasheets. Combined,
level rise components, thesesuch ice assheets
contain
thermal expansion, andthe equivalent
melting of about
ice from 64 meters
glaciers and of
ice sheets. Each seasubsequent
level rise; 58 meters for
assessment the Antarctic
differed from ice
its previous estimate for the high emission, business- ice
sheet and 4 meters for the Greenland
as-usual scenariosheet(see(Bamber et al.,The
Figure 3-4). 2001;upperNSIDC,
bound2014).
The ranges
of these estimates implication
from 0.59 is to
that any scenarios
1.1 meters of
developed for Bahrain should
sea level rise, with most of the uncertainty associated account for
Figure 3-4: Range in the IPCC’s global mean sea level
with difficultiesthis
in uncertainty
projecting and establish
ice mass lossanfromupperthebound rise projections in 2100 under high emission scenarios
for sea level rise that exceeds IPCC estimates. (source: IPCC)
Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Combined, these
For the purposes of the assessment, the
ice sheets contain the equivalent
deglaciation componentof about
was 64 metersto be
assumed and horizontal
accuracy percentage errors was
of the vertical and estimated
horizontalas
of sea level rise;
an 58 meters for
additional the Antarctic
4 meters of sea levelice sheet
rise. 20 cm.percentage errors was estimated as 20 cm.
and 4 meters for the Greenland ice sheet (Bamber et
§ Sensitive lands: To identify land areas
al., 2001; NSIDC,3.2.2. 2014). The implication is that any
Approach ●● Sensitive lands: To identify land areas sensitive to
scenarios developed for Bahrain should account for sensitive to sea level rise, two sets of DGN-
The objective of the coastal zone sea level
CAD rise,(Computer
two sets ofAidedDGN-CADDesign) (Computer
tiles were
this uncertainty and establish an upper bound for sea Aided acquired.
Design) tiles
vulnerability assessment was to quantify the The were acquired.
first set The first
was “Bahrain set
Tile,
level rise that exceeds IPCC estimates. For the purposes was “Bahrain
extent of seawater inundation by land type SLRB2017” which served as a referenceas
Tile, SLRB2017” which served
of the assessment, the deglaciation
and location for a set component
of plausible was sea level a reference
layoutlayout to identify
to identify and aggregate
and aggregate land
land areas
assumed to be risean additional
scenarios 4for meters of sea
the year levelThe
2100. rise.study areas sensitive
sensitive to to inundation
inundation (see (see Figure
Figure 3-5).
3-5).
area consisted of all land area from the These These
files consisted of undefined-coordinate
files consisted of undefined-
3.2.2. Approach coastline to inland areas up to 5 meters above systemcoordinate
polygons. system
The secondpolygons.
set ofThe second
DGN-files
The objectiveMSL of the for coastal
seven distinct land segments,
zone vulnerability set of DGN-files
was “Bahrain was “Bahrain
Island coastline, Island
2017”, produced
assessment was namely Northern
to quantify theBahrain,
extent Southern
of seawater Bahrain, coastline,
by Survey & Land 2017”, produced Bureau-Bahrain
Registration by Survey &
Muharraq, Sitra, Nabih Saleh, Umm Al (SLRB). These files represent the most(SLRB).
Land Registration Bureau-Bahrain current
inundation by land type and location for a set of
Nassan, and the Hawar Islands. edited These
boundary filesforrepresent
all Bahrainthe islands
most andcurrent
was
plausible sea level rise scenarios for the year 2100. The
edited boundary for all Bahrain
used to distinguish coastal areas from the sea. islands and
A 3-part
study area consisted of all methodology
land area fromwas applied that
the coastline was used to distinguish coastal areas from
to inland areasincluded
up to 5 data acquisition,
meters above MSL data for
preprocessing,
seven
distinct land segments, namely Northern Bahrain, The●●
and seawater inundation modeling. Digital the sea.elevation: To establish the elevation
land
Southern Bahrain,overall approach
Muharraq, is Nabih
Sitra, briefly Saleh,
described
Ummin the § Digital
of North land Island,
Bahrain elevation: Muharraq,
To establishSitra, the
and
Al Nassan, and subsections
the Hawarthat follow.
Islands. Nabihelevation of hundreds
Saleh Island, North ofBahrain
spot heightIsland,
files
with aMuharraq,
horizontal Sitra,
spatialand Nabih Saleh
resolution of 0.1Island,
meters
Data acquisition hundreds of spot height files
were assembled from SLRB (2017) and stored with ain
A 3-part methodology was applied that included
There horizontal spatialEach
resolution of 0.1 meters
data acquisition, datawere four main data
preprocessing, and sets that were
seawater DGN-CAD format. file contained more
used to undertake this study:
inundation modeling. The overall approach is briefly than a million elevation points. and model and
were assembled from SLRB (2017) for.
stored in DGN-CAD format. Each file
described in the§ Aerial photographs:
subsections thatTofollow.
establish detailed land For South Bahrain Island and the Hawar Islands,
contained more than a million elevation
use land cover (LULC) maps of coastal approximately 2 million spot elevation points were
points. and model for. For South Bahrain
Data acquisition areas, very-high-resolution (i.e., 0.1-meter assembled;
Islandfor and
Umm Nassan
the Island about
Hawar 825
Islands,
There were fourgrid mainsize)data
aerial
setsphotographs for the
that were used to year thousand spot elevation
approximately points were
2 million spot assembled.
elevation
undertake this 2017
study:were acquired for all Bahrain Islands points were assembled; for Umm Nassan
except Hawar Island for which●● Land Island
classification
aboutmaps: To establish
825 thousand land use
spot elevation
WorldView-3
●● Aerial photographs: satellite
To establish imagery
detailed (0.45-meter
land use types, points
the Bahrain Zoning layer map, 2017 with
were assembled.
grid size)maps
land cover (LULC) for 2017 was used.
of coastal A large
areas, very-image around 50 classes, was obtained from Ministry
database was developed that was saved in of Works (MEW), (2017) (see Figure 3-6). This
high-resolution (i.e., 0.1-meter grid size) aerial
Tagged Image File Format (TIFF). The map provided detailed zoning classifications for all
photographs for the year 2017 were acquired for
all Bahrain Islands except Hawar Island for which lands included in the study area. It was used as a
WorldView-3 satellite imagery (0.45-meter grid baseline shapefile to compare with - and edit as
size) for 2017 was used. A large image database 28 developed
necessary – the LULC classes that were |Page
was developed that was saved in Tagged Image from the previously acquired aerial photographs.
File Format (TIFF). The accuracy of the vertical

27
 Figure 3-5: Excerpt of the reference layout of sensitive land area in northern Bahrain from the “Bahrain
Tile, SLRB2017” DGN File

model which established the demarcation

§ Land classification maps: To establish land use
Data Preprocessing ●● ofSensitive coastal
types, the Bahrain coastal areas fromareas of each island were
the sea.
There were several
Figure steps toZoning
3-5: Excerpt ensure
of thelayer
that map,
reference 2017
all thelayout
dataof sensitivedifferentiated by LULC
land area in northern and from
Bahrain thenthe extracted
“Bahrainusing
with
used in this study around
Tile,were 50
SLRB2017” classes,
adequately was
DGN File obtained
georeferenced and from § The detailed
an algebraic model. spot elevation data were
Ministry of Works (MEW),
stored with all the descriptive information needed to (2017) (see transformed from DGN-CAD format to a
Figure 3-6). This map provided detailed shapefilemodel and which
then established
converted the
to demarcation
raster
§ Land classification
perform the subsequent inundation maps: To establish
modeling. Eachland is use●● The final outputs of the above steps consisted of
zoningtypes,
classifications for Zoning
all landslayer
included oftile-by-tile.
coastal areas from the sea.
the Bahrain
briefly discussed in the bullets below. map, 2017 format,
seven vector maps, one for each of the island areas,
in the with
studyaround
area. It50 was used as
classes, wasa obtained
baseline from § The §tiles Thecorresponding
detailed
shapefile to compare with - and edit as that depicted surfacespot to elevation
relieftheandstudy data
area were
3-dimensional
●● Initial necessary Ministry
data were saved of
asLULCWorks (MEW),
shapefiles thenthat (2017) (see were
imported elevationtransformed
converted
data, tothusafrom
singleDGN-CAD theformat
high-resolution
establishing to a
boundaries
Figure– the 3-6). This classes
map provided weredetailed Digital shapefile
Elevation and
Model then
(DEM)converted
in strips to
in raster
to a geodatabase.
developed All undefined
from the previously data files
acquired were of sensitive coastal areas for subsequent use in
georeferenced zoning classifications for
to Universal Transverse Mercator all lands included a format,
similar
processing tile-by-tile.
manner
LULC as with the aerial
data.
aerial photographs.
in the study area. It was used as a baseline photograph tiles. This full set of DEM data
(UTM) coordinate system Zone 39 with the World § The tiles corresponding to the study area
shapefile to compare with - and edit as was then clipped with the boundary
were manipulations
converted to ausing singleArcGIS
high-resolution
classes that were●● shapefile.
Data Preprocessing
Geodetic System 1984 –(WGS84) datum. Additional 10.6 and
necessary the LULC
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in strips in
There were several steps
developed fromtothe ensure that all the
previously acquired ENVI 5.4 were undertaken to establish sensitive
●● Thedata DGN tile filesstudy werewere converted § Sensitive a similar
coastal manner
and areas as
of areas
each for with
island the
all were aerial
used in photographs.
aerial this adequatelyto LULC areas coastal islands. The
Environmental Systems photograph
differentiated by tiles.
LULC This
and full
then set of DEM
extracted data
georeferenced and Research
stored Institute
with all(ESRI) the output of these efforts was a boundary shapefile
using was
an then
algebraic clipped
model. with the boundary
shapefile Data Preprocessing
format.
descriptive The attributes
information of these
needed tile files
to perform that was used as the base layer of 0-5 meters above
shapefile.
weretheadded from
subsequent the annotation
inundation text
There were several steps to ensure that all the mean sea level from the land area (see Figure 3-7).
modeling.of the
Each DGN is
files.briefly discussed
Thesedatafilesused
were ininused
thethis
bullets
tostudy below.
mosaic the adequately
aerial § Sensitive coastal areas of each island were
were
all the●● For alldifferentiated
photographs and were
prepare the spot-elevation data islands except by LULCUmmandNassan then extracted
and the
georeferenced
§ Initial data savedandas stored
shapefiles withthen
sets. imported using an algebraic model.
descriptive information All
to a geodatabase. needed to perform Hawar Island group, LULC maps were produced
undefined
data the
filessubsequent UniversalEach is by combining and analyzing data in the Bahrain
inundationtomodeling.
were georeferenced
●● Aerial Transverse
photographs tiles
briefly discussed were
in themosaiced
Mercator (UTM) coordinatebullets in strip
below.
lines, with
systemthese strips
Zone 39thenwith compiled into a single
§ Initial data werethe World
saved as Geodetic
shapefiles then
scene.System 1984
This process (WGS84)
was applieddatum.
imported to a geodatabase. Allislands
to all the undefined
separately.
§ The DGN data files
tile werefiles georeferenced
were converted to Universal
to
Transverse
Environmental Mercator
Systems Research(UTM) coordinate
Institute
●● The Bahrain
(ESRI)systemcoastline
shapefileZone was modeled
39 with
format. Thethe Worldusing
by
attributes Geodetic
of
rules of theSystem
these topological
tile 1984were
files structural
(WGS84) model
addeddatum. from whichthe
established the demarcation
annotation theoffiles coastal areas from
§ The textDGNof tile DGN files.
were These
converted to
the sea.
files were used to Systems mosaic Research
the aerial
Environmental Institute
photographs and prepare
(ESRI) shapefile format. the spot-
The attributes of
●● The detailed
elevationspotdata sets.
elevation data were
these tile files were added from the transformed
from§ DGN-CAD format
Aerial annotation
photographs textto of
tiles a were
shapefile
the DGN andfiles.
mosaiced then
in These
converted to raster
files with
strip lines, format,
werethese used tile-by-tile.
stripsto then
mosaic
compiledthe aerial
into aphotographs
single scene.and Thisprepare
process the was spot- §
●● The tiles
applied elevation
to all thedata
corresponding tosets.
islands the study area were Figure 3-6: Bahrain zoning layer, SLRB2017 with around
separately.
converted § to a single
Aerial high-resolution
photographs tilesmodeled Digital 50inclasses, Base map of LULC classification (MEW,
were mosaiced
§ The Bahrain coastline was by
Elevation Model (DEM) inthese
strips in then
a similar 2017)
using strip
rules lines,
of the withtopological stripsstructuralcompiled
manner as with the aerial photograph
into a single scene. This process was tiles. This
§
full set of DEMapplieddata wasthethen
to all clipped
islands with the
separately. 29 | P a g e
Figure 3-6: Bahrain zoning layer, SLRB2017 with around
boundary shapefile.
§ The Bahrain coastline was modeled by 50 classes, Base map of LULC classification (MEW,
using rules of the topological structural 2017)
29 | P a g e
28
 zoning shapefile,
§ The final aerial outputs
photograph of the maps,
above and steps
the boundaryconsisted
shapefileof forseven
sensitive
vectorcoastal
maps,areas.one for
Nine land classes
each ofwere the established:
island areas,agriculture,
that depicted
airport zone,surface
archaeological
relief and sites, bare land, built-
3-dimensional elevation
up, industrial,data, thus establishing
reclamation, vacant andthe boundaries
wetlands of
(see Box 3-1). sensitive
These coastal
classesareas
werefor subsequent
compiled intouse in
one polygonprocessing
for each class LULCfor data.
each island and
saved as a§ high-resolution
Additional manipulationszoning shapefile using(i.e.,ArcGIS
1:250 meter).10.6Topographical rules were
and ENVI 5.4 were undertaken applied to to
ensure the integrity
establishofsensitive
the LULC LULC dataareas
structure.
and coastal
areas for all islands. The outputland
Figure 3-8 summarizes the extent of sensitive of these
area by class,efforts
island,was anda elevation.
boundary shapefile that was
used as the base layer of 0-5 meters above
●● For Umm Nassan mean sea and level from the
the Hawar Islandlandgroup,
area (see
Figure 3-7).
Worldview-3 satellite images were used to create
the LULC §maps For allusing
islands ENVI
except5.4Ummsoftware.
Nassan Theand the
resulting LULC Hawar maps were group,
Island exported LULCto ArcGIS
maps were Figure 3-7: Areas less than 5 meters above MSL. Left:
software. Theproduced
extent ofbysensitive
combining andareas
coastal analyzing
(i.e., data Sensitive areas by LULC; Right: Sensitive areas
in theMSL)
0-5 meters above Bahrain zoning shapefile,
was developed from the aerial aggregated across coastal areas
LULC mapsphotograph
using the coastline maps, boundary
and the layer, boundary Box 3–1: Land use and land cover categories
ArcGIS and shapefile for sensitive coastal areas. Nine
Excel software. • Bare Land: Areas of sparse vegetation, thin soil,
land classes were established: agriculture, bare soil, sand, or rocks
Seawater inundationairport
modeling zone, archaeological sites, bare land, • Reclamation: Shallow marine areas reclaimed with
The point of departure industrial,
built-up, for modeling reclamation,
the landwardvacant and soil and other materials and converted into
extent of seawater inundation was the establishment of were
wetlands (see Box 3-1). These classes urban/industrial areas
compiled into one polygon for each class • Wetlands: Marshes, mudflats and sabkhas on the
a set of plausible sea level rise scenarios for the years
for each island and saved as a high- shallow margins of the coast
2050 and 2100. For the year 2100.
resolution scenario
zoning development
shapefile (i.e., 1:250 • Built-up: Urban areas adjacent to public roads,
was premised onmeter).
the additive contributions
Topographical to sea
rules were level
applied shopping centers, commercial/industrial parks, and
rise described in totheensure
bulletsthe below.
integrity of the LULC data other infrastructure
structure. Figure 3-8 summarizes the extent • Vacant: Open parcels of land in residential,
●● Global average:ofThis contribution
sensitive land areawas by assumed
class, island,to and commercial, and industrial areas, including sites
be the range elevation.
in the most recent IPCC projections cleared of old buildings
(i.e., 0.52-0.98 meters), or an upper bound of 0.98 • Archeological: Important sites of cultural heritage
§ For Umm Nassan and the Hawar Island
meters by 2100.group, ThisWorldview-3
estimate corresponds to all were
satellite images • Agricultural: Land cultivated for agriculture,
components used of sea whether seasonal or permanent
to level
createrise;
the LULC maps using ENVI
5.4 software. The resulting LULC maps • Airport: Airport zone located on Muharraq
●● Uncertainty: This
werecontribution
exported to is associated with the The
ArcGIS software. • Industrial: Areas containing factories, power plants
rate of deglaciation
extent ofin Greenland and Antarctica;
sensitive coastal areas (i.e., 0-5 and other types of industrial production
an upper bound of 4 meters by 2100 was
meters above MSL) was developed assumed; fromlevel rise2100. Forwerethe
scenarios year namely
analyzed, 2100. 3 scenarios
scenario
and the LULC maps using the coastline(i.e., 0.5,development was premised
1.0, and 1.5 meters) to captureon the potential
additive
boundary layer, ArcGIS and Excelrange ofcontributions to sea level rise described in the
sea level rise through 2050, and 2 scenarios
●● Regional landsoftware.
subsidence: This contribution is (i.e., 2.0 bullets
and 5.0below.
meters) to capture the range of sea
associated with the impact on land subsidence level rise§ through 2100. This contribution was
Seawater inundation modeling Global average:
in the western Arabian Gulf region from past
assumed to be the range in the most recent
oil, naturalThe
gas point of departureextraction;
and groundwater for modelingan theTo estimate inundated
IPCC areas (i.e.,
projections under0.52-0.98
the scenarios,
meters),an
annual ratelandward
of aboutextent
0.33 ±of0.20
seawater
mm perinundation
year, or wasoverlay processor an upper boundwas
in ArcGIS of 0.98 meters
applied to by 2100.
combine
the establishment
0.03-0.04 meters by 2100 was of a set of plausible sea
assumed. Thismapsestimate corresponds to extent
all
sea level rise with the LULC maps. The
level rise scenarios for the years 2050 and components of sea level rise;
of inundated area was calculated by comparing the
Taken together, these contributions imply an upper different inundation scenarios with the LULC by land
bound of sea level rise of about 5 meters above MSL class, island and scenario. 30 | P a g e
by 2100 (i.e., 0.98+4.00+0.04). For the year 2050,
intermediate values were assumed. Altogether, 6 sea

29
3.2.3. Results the high sea level rise scenario of 5 meters. The
Figure 3-8 summarizes the extent of seawater airport would be completely inundated while
inundation under the various scenarios for all of wetlands, reclaimed lands, and industrial areas
Bahrain. The results confirm that the country is would lose at least 94% of their total area. Built-up
highly sensitive to sea level rise. Significant inundation areas would experience a loss of 74% of its total
§ Uncertainty: This contribution is associated 3.2.3. Results
impacts are projected area. Of the total sensitive land area of 470 km2,
with the rateforof certain land use
deglaciation categories,
in Greenland only 3-872 summarizes
km2 (15%) would not ofbeseawater
under water as
even at small Figure the extent
and levels of rising
Antarctica; seas. bound
an upper Some of
key4 national
meters
implications of the assessment are outlined in the inundation
these areas under
are the
abovevarious scenarios
5 meters aboveforMSL.
all
by 2100 was assumed; and
bullets that follow. of Bahrain. The results confirm that the
§ Regional land subsidence: This contribution is country
The rest of is highly sensitive
this section to seaa level
provides rise. of sea
summary
associated with the impact on land Significant
level inundation
rise impacts for eachimpacts
of the are projected
islands, as well as on
●● Wetlands are projected to experience significant
subsidence in the western Arabian Gulf for certain land use categories, even
the national road transport system, and exposure of at small
inundation. Approximately 27 km2, or nearly half
region from past oil, natural gas and levels of centers.
population rising seas. Some key national
of all wetlands in Bahrain would be inundated if
groundwater extraction; an annual rate of implications of the assessment are outlined in
sea levels rise0.33
about by up±to0.20
0.5 meters,
mm perwithyear,nearly three
or 0.03- the bullets
Northern that Island
Bahrain follow.
quarters lost
0.04 if seabylevels
meters 2100rise
wasbyassumed.
up to 1.5 meters.
Northern
§ Wetlands Bahrain are Island is the most
projected urbanized part of
to experience
●● OnlyTaken
modesttogether,
areas ofthese contributions
reclamation lands imply
wouldanbe significant
Bahrain, inundation.
accounting for overApproximately
70% of all built-up27 areas
upper bound of sea level rise of
affected with small amounts of sea level rise. Ofabout 5 andkm 2
, orhalf
nearly nearly
of itshalf of all area.
industrial wetlands in where
It is also
meters
the total above
of 50 km2 ofMSL by 2100
reclaimed land,(i.e., 0.98
only about mostBahrain
of the would be inundated
agricultural and vacant if lands,
sea levels
about 87%
+4.00+0.04). For the year 2050, intermediate andrise
67%, byrespectively,
up to 0.5 meters, with nearly three
are located.
2% (1 km2) would be inundated at 0.5 meters,
values were assumed. Altogether, 6 sea level quarters lost if sea levels rise by up to 1.5
but nearly 30% (14 km2) would be inundated at 2
rise scenarios were analyzed, namely 3 meters.
Figure 3-9 summarizes land use characteristics as
meters of sea (i.e.,
scenarios level0.5,
rise.1.0, and 1.5 meters) to
well as themodest
§ Only spatial areas
extentofand magnitudelands
reclamation of seawater
capture the potential range of sea level rise inundation under the various scenarios for of
Northern
●● Built-up areas in and
Bahrain are best(i.e.,
situated would be affected with small amounts
through 2050, 2 scenarios 2.0 andto
withstand sea level
Bahrain rise. Of
Island. Some the keytotal implications
of 50 km ofof the
2
5.0 meters) to capture the range of sea(2 level
sea level rise. Less than 2% km2)
would reclaimedareland,
assessment only about 2% (1 km2)
as follows.
risebethrough
inundated up to 1 meter of sea level rise
2100.
and only 10% (13 km2) of these lands would be would be inundated at 0.5 meters, but
To estimate
inundated up to 2 inundated
meters of areas under
sea level rise. the ●● nearly
Wetlands 30% are(14
thekm
2
) would
hardest be seawater
hit by inundated at
inundation.
scenarios, an overlay process in ArcGIS was 2Approximately
meters of sea level rise.
7 km , or nearly 36% of all
2

applied to combine sea level rise maps with wetlands in northern Bahrain would be inundated
●● Industrial areas are somewhat more sensitive that § Built-up areas in Bahrain are best situated
the LULC maps. The extent of inundated if withstand
sea levels sea rise level
by up to Less
0.5 meters,
built-up to rise. than 2%with(2 nearly
area areas
was tocalculated
withstand by sea comparing
level rise. About
the 90%) would
lost if be seainundated
levels riseup bytoup1 to 2 meters.
15%different
(4 km2) of these lands would be inundated km 2
meter of
inundation scenarios with the
withLULC
2 meters of class,
sea level rise, sea level rise and only 10% (13 km2) of
by land island andwith under 3%
scenario.
(1 km2) inundated with 1 meter of sea level rise. ●● these lands would
Reclamation lands be wouldinundated up to 2affected
be somewhat
meters
with low ofsea
sealevel
levelrise.
rise.Of the total of about 16 km2
●● All land use categories are severely affected under of reclaimed land, about 4% would be inundated

Figure 3-8: Left: Overall area of sensitive land in Bahrain under range of sea level rise scenarios, by LULC;
Right: Area of sensitive land by LULC class, island, and elevation 5 meters above and below MSL
31 | P a g e
30
 at 0.5 meters, and 34% inundated at 2 meters of assessment are as follows.
sea level rise.
●● Wetlands are the hardest hit by seawater inundation.
●● Less than 1% (0.8 km2) of Northern Bahrain’s Approximately 12 km2, or nearly 52% of all
built-up areas would be inundated with up to wetlands in southern Bahrain would be inundated
§ Industrial areas are somewhat more2 Figure 3-9 summarizes land use
1 meter of sea that
sensitive levelbuilt-up
rise, andareas
aboutto 8% (7 km )
withstand characteristics as well as the spatial extent and nearly
if sea levels rise by up to 0.5 meters, with
inundated withrise.
sea level 2 meters
About of
15%sea(4 level
km2) rise.
of these 93% lostof
magnitude if seawater
sea levelsinundation
rise by up under
to 2 meters.
the
lands would be inundated with 2 meters of various scenarios for Northern Bahrain
●● Agricultural
sea level areasrise,
are with
sensitive
underabove3% 0.5 (1 meters
km2) ●●Island.
Agricultural
Some areaskey are also very sensitive
implications of theto even
of seainundated
level rise. with
Less 1than 1% (0.1 km
meter of sea level rise.these
2
) of small amounts of
assessment are as follows. sea level rise. About 31%
lands would be inundated up to this amount of sea (0.2 km ) of these lands would be inundated with
2
All land
level§ rise. use categories
An additional 17%are severely
(5.4 affectedbe
km2) would § Wetlands are the hardest hit by seawater
up to 0.5 meters of sea level rise. An additional
under the high sea level rise scenario of 5 inundation. Approximately 7 km2, or nearly
inundated with 2 meters of sea level rise. 53% (0.4 km2) would be inundated with 2 meters
meters. The airport would be completely 36% of all wetlands in northern Bahrain
of sea level rise.
inundated while wetlands, reclaimed lands, would be inundated if sea levels rise by up
●● All landanduse categories
industrial arewould
areas severely
loseaffected
at least under
94% to 0.5 meters, with nearly 90% lost if sea
the highofsea leveltotal
their rise scenario of 5 meters.
area. Built-up areasWetlands
would ●● levels
Reclamation lands
rise by up to 2inmeters.
the southeastern part of the
and reclaimed
experiencelands a losswould
of 74% loseofatitsleast
total96%
area.of island would be somewhat affected with low sea
their total area. Built-up areas § Reclamation lands
totalwould be 8somewhat
Of the total sensitive landwould
area of experience
470 km2, a level rise. Of the of about km2 of reclaimed
loss ofonly67%72of km its2total affected with low sea level2 rise. Of the total
(15%) would not beBahrain.
area in Northern under land, about 10% (0.3 km ) would be inundated at
Of thewater total as
sensitive land area of 245 5km 2
, only of about and
1 meter, 16 km2
21%of reclaimed
(0.3 land, about
km2) inundated at 2 meters
these areas are above meters 4% would be inundated at 0.5 meters, and
56 kmabove
2
(23%)MSL.would remain above water. of sea level rise.
34% inundated at 2 meters of sea level rise.
The rest of this section provides a summary
Southern Bahrain Island ●●§ Less
Aboutthan
10% 1% (0.82) of
(0.3 km km2) of Northern
Southern Bahrain’s built-
of sea level rise impacts for each of the Bahrain’s built-up areas with
would
The most prominent
islands, as wellfeature
as onoftheSouthern
nationalBahrain
road up areas would be inundated up to 1bemeter of
Island istransport
the extent of wetlands, which account for inundated withand
sea level rise, upabout
to 1 meter of sea
21% (0.7 km2level
) inundated
system, and exposure of population rise, and about 8% (7 km2) inundated with
nearly 40% of
centers. all sensitive land area in southern with 2 meter of sea level rise.
Bahrain and about 5% of total sensitive land area 2 meters of sea level rise.
in the country.
Northern ItBahrain
is alsoIsland
where significant shares of ●●§ Agricultural
All land use categories
areas are severely
are sensitive above 0.5affected
Bahrain’s bare lands and reclaimed lands, about 19% meters of sea
under the highlevel
sea rise.
level Less than 1%of(0.1
rise scenario 5 meters.
Northern Bahrain Island is the most
and 16% of southern km2) of these
and lands would lands
be inundated up at least
urbanized part Bahrain’s
of Bahrain,sensitive land area,
accounting for Wetlands agricultural would lose
respectively, are located. to
98%this amount
of their totalofarea.
seaBuilt-up
level rise. An
and reclamation
over 70% of all built-up areas and nearly half
additional
areas would experience a loss of 25% be
17% (5.4 km2) would and 88%,
of its industrial area. It is also where most of
Figure 3-10 summarizes inundated withof2 meters
their of sea level
area rise.
the agricultural andland uselands,
vacant characteristics
about 87%as respectively, total in Southern
well as the
and spatial extent and magnitude
67%, respectively, are located.of seawater Bahrain.
§ All Of categories
land use the total sensitive landaffected
are severely area of 63 km2,
inundation under the various scenarios for Southern only 5 the
under km high
2
(9%)seawould
levelnot
risebescenario
under water.
of 5
Bahrain Island. Some key implications of the

Figure 3-9: Northern Bahrain Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class
32 | P a g e
31
 The most prominent features of Muharraq § Less than 2% (0.8 km2) of Muharraq
Island are the presence of Bahrain Island’s built-up areas would be inundated
International Airport; the significant amount with up to 1.5 meters of sea level rise, and
of the island taken up by built-up and about 14% (3.9 km2) inundated with 2
reclaimed lands, about 42% and 25%, meters of sea level rise.
respectively; and the absence of any wetlands
§ Agricultural areas are sensitive above 0.5
or bare lands. meters of sea level rise. Less than 1% (0.1
Figure 3-11 summarizes land use km2) of these lands would be inundated
characteristics as well as the spatial extent and with this amount of sea level rise. An
magnitude of seawater inundation under the additional 17% (8.5 km2) would be
various scenarios for Muharraq Island. Some inundated with 2 meters of sea level rise.
keyFigure 3-10: Southern
implications Bahrain
of the Island results.
assessment Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
are as
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise§ All land by
scenario useLULC
categories
class are severely affected
follows. under the high sea level rise scenario of 5
33 | Pareas
age
Muharraq§ With sea level rise under 1 meter, only 1% meters. The airport and agricultural
The most (0.8 km2) features
prominent of the of land area would
Muharraq Islandbeare ●● would
With seabe 100% inundated.
level rise under 1.5Built-up areas
meters, only 5%
affected. Industrial areas would be hardest and reclaimed lands would experience a
the presence of Bahrain International Airport; the (3.5 km ) of the land area would be affected. The
2
hit, accounting for half the total inundated loss of at least 94% of their total area in
significant amount of the island taken up by built-up airport and agricultural areas would be hardest hit,
area on the island. Muharraq. Of the total sensitive land area 2
and reclaimed lands, about 42% and 25%, respectively; of 66 km2, only 2 km2 (3%) would not(0.2
accounting for 3% (1.7 km 2
) and 0.3% be km ) of
§ With sea level rise under 1.5
and the absence of any wetlands or bare lands.meters, only total inundated
5% (3.5 km2) of the land area would be under water. area on the island.
affected.
Figure 3-11 The airport
summarizes land and
use agricultural areasas
characteristics ●●Sitra
Reclamation lands would be somewhat affected
would be hardest hit, accounting
well as the spatial extent and magnitude of seawater for 3% with low sea level rise. Of the total of about 16.5
(1.7 km2) and 0.3% (0.2 km2) of total The most prominent feature of Sitra Island is
inundation under the various scenarios for Muharraq the extent reclaimed
km 2
of land, only
of its reclaimed land about
areas, 2% (0.3 km2)
which
inundated area on the island.
Island. Some key implications of the assessment are would for
account be about
inundated
40%atof1.5 themeters,
island’sand
totalonly 6%
§ Reclamation lands would be somewhat
as follows. (1.0 km 2
) inundated at 2 meters of sea level rise.
area. It also is characterized by extensive
affected with low sea level rise. Of the total
industrial areas and built-up areas, accounting
●● With of seaabout
level16.5
risekm2 of reclaimed
under 1 meter,land,
onlyonly
1% ●●forLess
aboutthan
28%2% and(0.8
21%km of )total
2
of island
Muharraqarea, Island’s
about 2% (0.3 km2) would be inundated
(0.8 km ) of the land area would be affected. at built-up areasThere
would be
2
respectively. areinundated
virtuallywithno
up to 1.5
1.5 meters, and only 6% (1.0 km2)
Industrial areas would be hardest hit, accounting agricultural
meters oflands on the
sea level island.
rise, and about 14% (3.9 km2)
inundated at 2 meters of sea level rise.
for half the total inundated area on the island. inundated with 2 meters of sea level rise.

Figure 3-11: Muharraq Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise scenario;
Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class
34 | P a g e
32
●● Agricultural areas are sensitive above 0.5 meters ●● With sea level rise at or below 1 meter, only 4%
of sea level rise. Less than 1% (0.1 km2) of these (0.9 km2) of the land area would be affected.
lands would be inundated with this amount of sea Reclaimed land would account two-thirds (0.6
level rise. An additional 17% (8.5 km2) would be km2) of total inundated area on the island.
inundated with 2 meters of sea level rise.
Figure 3-12 summarizes land use total area. Of the total sensitive land area of
●● Less than 2% (0.1 km2) of Sitra Island’s built-up
characteristics as well as the spatial extent and 22 km2, only 0.6 km2 (3%) would not be
●● All land use categories are severely affected under areas would be inundated with up to 1.5 meters of
magnitude of seawater inundation under the under water.
the various
high seascenarios
level risefor
scenario of 5 meters.
Sitra Island. Some keyThe sea level rise, and about 8% (0.4 km2) inundated
airport and agricultural areas would be
implications of the assessment are as follows. 100% withSaleh
Nabih 2 meters of sea level rise.
inundated. Built-up areas and reclaimed lands
§ With sea level rise of
under 0.5 meters, The most prominent feature of Nabih Saleh
would experience a loss at least 94% of only
their ●● Reclamation lands would be somewhat affected
1% (0.3 km2) of the land area would be Island is the extent of its built-up areas which
total area in Muharraq. Of the total sensitive land with low sea level rise. Of the total of about
affected. Reclaimed land would be hardest account for about 64% of the island’s total
area of 66 km2, only 2 km2 (3%) would not be 8.7Bare
area. km2 lands
of reclaimed land, lands
and reclaimed aboutaccount
6% (0.6 km2)
hit, accounting for all inundated area on the
under water. forwould
aboutbe inundated
12% and at14% 1 meter,
of and
total18% (1.6 km2)
area,
island.
inundated atThere
respectively. 2 metersareof sea
no level rise.
industrial,
Sitra § With sea level rise at or below 1 meter, only agricultural, or vacant areas on the island.
The most4% (0.9 km2)feature
prominent of theofland areaIsland
Sitra wouldis be
the ●● All land use categories are severely affected under
affected. Reclaimed land would account Figure 3-13 summarizes land use
extent of its reclaimed land areas, which account the high sea level rise scenario of 5 meters. Built-
characteristics as well as the spatial extent and
for abouttwo-thirds
40% of the (0.6island’s
km2) total
of total
area.inundated
It also is up areas would be totally under seawater while
area on the island. magnitude of seawater inundation under the
characterized by extensive industrial areas and built- reclaimed
various lands for
scenarios and Nabih
industrial areas
Saleh would lose
Island.
up areas,§ Less than 2%for(0.1
accounting km2)28%
about of Sitra
and Island’s
21% of Some key implications of the assessment are land
95% of their total area. Of the total sensitive
total island area, respectively. There are virtuallyup
built-up areas would be inundated with no as area of 22 km2, only 0.6 km2 (3%) would not be
follows.
to 1.5 meters of sea
agricultural lands on the island. level rise, and about 8% under water.
(0.4 km2) inundated with 2 meters of sea § With sea level rise from 0.5 to 1.5 meters,
levelsummarizes
rise. built-up areas would be hardest hit with a
Figure 3-12 land use characteristics as Nabih Saleh
loss of 0.08 km2, representing about a
§ Reclamation
well as the spatial extentlands would be of
and magnitude somewhat
seawater Themaximum
most prominent
of aboutfeature
7% ofof theNabih Saleh
island’s totalIsland is
inundationaffected
under with
the low sea level
various rise. Of the
scenarios for total
Sitra the area.
extentAbout
of its built-up
92% ofareas which account
the island would be for about
of about 8.7 km2 of reclaimed land,
Island. Some key implications of the assessment are about 64%above
of thewater
island’s total area. Bare lands and reclaimed
6% (0.6 km2) would be inundated at 1
as follows. lands account for about 12% and 14% of total area,
meter, and 18% (1.6 km2) inundated at 2 § With 2 meters of sea level rise, significant
respectively. There are no industrial, agricultural, or
areas of Nabih Saleh Island would
●● With meters of sea
sea level riselevel rise.0.5 meters, only 1%
under vacant areas on the island.
experience inundation. About 13% (0.2
All2)land
(0.3 §km of use
the categories
land areaare severely
would be affected
affected.
km2) and 3% (0.03 km2) of built-up and
underland
Reclaimed the would
high sea
belevel rise hit,
hardest scenario of 5
accounting Figure 3-13 summarizes land use characteristics as
reclaimed areas would be inundated with 2
for allmeters. Built-up
inundated areas
area on thewould
island. be totally wellmeters
as theofspatial extent
sea level rise.and magnitude of seawater
under seawater while reclaimed lands and inundation under the various scenarios for Nabih
industrial areas would lose 95% of their

Figure 3-12: Sitra Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise scenario;
Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class
35 | P a g e
33
 Figure 3-13: Nabi Saleh Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class

Saleh Island. Some key implications of the assessment Al level

NassanriseIsland.
fromSome 0.5 key to implications
2.0 meters, of the
§ All land use categories are severely affected
are as follows.
under the high sea level rise scenario of 5 agricultural
assessment are areas would experience a loss
as follows.
meters. Built-up areas would be totally of 70% (2.3 km2) and built-up areas would
●● With sea
underlevel rise from
seawater while0.5reclaimed
to 1.5 meters,
lands built-
and ●● experience
With sea levela lossrise
of 57%
from(0.4 0.5 km2).
to 2.0 meters, bare
up areas
barewould be hardest
lands would lose at hit
leastwith
94%a ofloss
theirof lands
§ All landwould be hardestare
use categories hitseverely
with a loss of 6.3 km2,
affected
0.08 km 2
, representing
total area. Of theabout a maximum
total sensitive landof about
area of representing
under the highabout
sea levela maximum
rise scenarioof ofabout
5 31%
7% of1.1 thekm2, only total
island’s 0.02 km2
area. (1%)
About would
92%notof be
the meters, losing at
of the island’s totalleast 99%
area. Aboutof their
5% oftotal
the island
island under
wouldwater.
be above water area.
wouldOfbethe total water.
above sensitive land area of 20
km2, only 0.1 km2 (1%) would not be
●● WithUmm Al Nassan
2 meters of sea level rise, significant areas of ●● under water.situation is evident for the island’s
A similar
Nabih Saleh Island
The most prominent would features
experience of inundation.
Umm Al agricultural and built up areas. With sea level rise
Nassan
About Island
13% (0.2 kmare
2
the3%
) and extent
(0.03ofkmbare
2
) oflands
built- Hawar
fromIslands
0.5 to 2.0 meters, agricultural areas would
andreclaimed
up and agriculturalareasareas
wouldwhich take up about
be inundated with 2 The Hawara loss
experience Island
of 70%group (2.3 kmconsists
2
) and built-up
80%of and
meters 16%,rise.
sea level respectively. Built-up areas predominantly of bare lands
areas would experience andofwetlands,
a loss 57% (0.4 km2).
account for the remaining 4% of land area. which account for nearly 65% and 33%
●● All land
Figureuse categories are severely affected
3-14 summarizes land underuse ●●respectively.
All land useBuilt-up
categories areas
are account
severely for the under
affected
the high sea level rise scenario of 5 meters.
characteristics as well as the spatial extent and Built- remaining 2% of land area.
the high sea level rise scenario of 5 meters, losing at
up areas wouldofbe
magnitude totally inundation
seawater under seawaterunderwhile
the least 99%
Figure of their
3-15 total area. Ofland
summarizes the total
usesensitive
variouslands
reclaimed scenarios
and barefor Umm
lands Al Nassan
would loseIsland.
at least characteristics
land area of as 20well
km2as the spatial
, only 0.1 kmextent
2
(1%)andwould not
94%Some keytotal
of their implications
area. Of of thethe assessment
total are
sensitive land magnitude
be under of seawater inundation under the
water.
areaas
offollows.
1.1 km2, only 0.02 km2 (1%) would not be various scenarios for the Hawar Island
under water.sea level rise from 0.5 to 2.0 meters,
§ With
group.Islands
Hawar Some key implications of the
bare lands would be hardest hit with a loss assessment
The are as follows.
Hawar Island group consists predominantly of
Umm Al Nassan
of 6.3 km2, representing about a maximum bare lands and wetlands,
§ With sea level rise from which 0.5account for nearly 65%
to 2.0 meters,
The mostofprominent
about 31% features
of theofisland’s
Umm totalAl Nassan
area. andwetlands
33% respectively.
would be Built-up
hardest hit areas account
with a loss for the
Island areAbout 5% ofof the
the extent island
bare landswould be above
and agricultural from 7.6
remaining 2% km2
of land to area.
10 km2, representing
areas whichwater.
take up about 80% and 16%, respectively. about
Figure 15%summarizes
3-15 to 19% of the landisland’s total area.
use characteristics as
Built-up§areas account for the remaining 4%island’s
of land About 68% of the island would be
well as the spatial extent and magnitude of seawater above
A similar situation is evident for the
area. water. under the various scenarios for the Hawar
inundation
agricultural and built up areas. With sea
Island group. Some key implications of the assessment
Figure 3-14 summarizes land use characteristics as are as follows. 36 | P a g e
well as the spatial extent and magnitude of seawater
inundation under the various scenarios for Umm ●● With sea level rise from 0.5 to 2.0 meters, wetlands

34
 Figure 3-14: Umm Al Nassan Island results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class

would be hardest hit with a loss from 7.6 km2 to remained

paved roads constant fromat3,517 730 km in over2012thistotime
3,708 period.
§ A2 similar situation is evident for the island’s
10 km , representing about 15% to 19% of the
bare lands. With sea level rise from 0.5 to
Seakmlevel in 2018,
rise an average
will adversely annual growth
impact rate of paved
Bahrain’s
island’s2.0total area.these
Figure
meters, About
3-14: Umm 68%
areas of thelose
Al Nassan
would island
Island would Left: LULC
results.
between about
and map; 0.9%
unpaved Middle: per
roads. year.
Map of The Unpaved roads
extent byofseathis
inundation have
level impact
rise is
be above scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea summarized
water.
3.3 km2 to 6.0 km2, representing about 6% remained
level constant
rise scenario in by LULC
Table at3-2730
class
for kmeach overof this
the time
sea level rise
●● A similar to 11%situation
of theisisland’s
evidenttotal for area.
the island’s bare period. Notably, toads are less affected by sea level
scenarios. paved roads from 3,517 km in 2012 to 3,708
lands. With § A seasimilar
level situation
rise fromis 0.5 evident
to 2.0 formeters,
the island’s rise than
§ All land bareuse categories
lands. With are
sea severely
level riseaffected
from 0.5 to
Sea kmland
level rise
in 2018,areas. anFor
will adversely example,
average impact
annual under
Bahrain’s
growth 5 meters
rate ofof
these areas would lose between 3.3 km to 2
sea levelabout
paved rise,unpaved
and 51%
0.9% of per allyear.
roads. road The surfaces
extent of
Unpaved are this
roads projected
have
under themeters,
2.0 high sea level
these risewould
areas scenario loseofbetween
5
6.0 km , representing about 6% to 11% of the
2
toimpact
inundated, is summarized
remained compared
constant in
to Table
about
at 730 3-2
85%
km for
of each
over allthis
land timearea
meters. 3.3Bare
km2landsto 6.0wouldkm2, experience
representinga loss about 6% (see
island’sof total
77% area. of the sea
earlier
period. level
Figure rise scenarios.
3-8). This Notably,
is even toads
more evident
toof11% its total
of thearea, whiletotal
island’s wetlands
area. and are less affected by sea
built-up areas would lose at least 96% of under smaller sea level riselevel rise than
scenarios, withland only 1.5%
§ All land use categories are severely affected areas. Sea
For level rise will
example, underadversely
5 impact
meters of Bahrain’s
sea
●● All land use categories are severely
their area. Of the total sensitive land area of affected under of the road
paved and unpaved roads. The extent ofmeters
infrastructure inundated with 0.5 this
the high under
sea level the high sea level rise scenario of 5 level rise, rise,
51%compared of all road surfaces are
2 km2, onlyrise 8 km2 scenario
(16%) of would
5 meters. not Bare
be of sea level impact is summarized to in11% of total
Table 3-2 land
for eacharea
lands would meters. Bare lands would
experience a loss of 77% of its total experience a loss projected
in this scenario. to inundated, compared to about
under water. of all
theland seaThis
level is rise
due scenarios.
to the factNotably,
that theretoads is not
of 77% ofand
area, while wetlands its built-up
total area, while
areas wetlands
would lose and a 85% strongof alignment
are lessmore
area
of
affected
(seelocation
the earlier Figure
by sea of
level roads 3-8).
rise than with lands
land
Road96%
at least built-up areas would lose
systemof their area. Of the total sensitive at least 96% of This is
sensitiveareas. even
to seaFor level evident under smaller
rise. under 5 meters of sea sea
their area. Of the 2total sensitive land area of level rise example,
scenarios, with only 1.5% of the
landBahrain’s
area of 2 road km2, only 8 km (16%) would not be level rise, 51% of allwith road
2 km2, systemonly 8consistskm2 (16%) of paved would andnot be road infrastructure inundated 0.5 surfaces
meters are
under water.
unpavedunder roads across all of the islands Population projected
exposure to inundated,
of sea level rise, compared to 11% of total compared to about
water.
including the Hawar Island Group. Since Sealand level 85%
area of
riseinwill all land
thisnegatively area
scenario. This (see
impact earlier
is people’sFigure
due to the 3-8).
wellbeing
Road system byfact This isrelocation
inducing even moretoevident under smaller sea
road lengths
Road system are reported on a national basis, that there is not a stronghigher alignment elevations
of the within
Bahrain’sthe estimate
road system of consists
sea level of risepaved
impacts andonunpaved
to the level
Bahrain, orofotherwise rise scenarios,
forcing with
lands them only 1.5%
to seaoftothe
to respond the
Bahrain’s road system consists of paved and location road
roads with
infrastructure
sensitive
inundated with 0.5 meters
road system
roads across all of the wasislands
limitedincluding
to a national scale
the Hawar prospects of future inundation.
unpaved roads across all of the islands level rise.
assessment. of sea level rise, compared to 11% of total
Island Group. Since road lengths are reported on a
including the Hawar Island Table Group.
3–2: Since
Impact of sea level riseland onarea in this
Bahrain’s road scenario.
network Thisaffected
is due tobythe
nationalPavedbasis,roadthe lengths
roads estimate
consist areof sea level
ofreported
three onrise impacts
a national basis, To estimate the number of persons sea
on to the road system was limited to a national scale level factlow,
rise, thatmedian,
Current there Lossisofnot
roada(km)
and strong
high
under alignment
sea level rise of the
population estimates
majorthe types: main of
estimate roads (i.e., rise impacts on to the
sea level locationlength
of ≤roads scenario (meters AMSL):
with lands≤sensitive to sea
assessment.highways); secondary roads
road system was limited to a national scale Type of Road were obtained (km)from 0.5the≤ United
1.0 ≤ 1.5Nations 2.0 Populations
≤ 5.0
Main Roads (Highways) level rise.
581 9 18 42 94 294
(i.e., assessment.
avenues); and other
Paved Secondary Roads (Avenues) 796 12 25 58 128 402
Paved roadsroadsconsist
(i.e., smaller
of three roads
major & types:
roads Table 3–2: Impact ofLanes)
sea level 2,331rise on Bahrain’s road169 network
lanes). Paved roads consist of three Other Roads (Roads & 35 74 376 1,178
main roads (i.e.,Over the past
highways); 6 years,
secondary roads Subtotal 3,708 Current 56 Loss
118 of road269 (km)597
under 1,874
sea level rise
major types: main roads (i.e., length scenario (meters AMSL):
there has
(i.e., avenues); andbeen otheractive
roads paved(i.e., smallerUnpaved roads 730 11 23 53 118 369
road highways); secondary
construction in Bahrain, roads
Total
Type of Road
4,438
(km) ≤ 0.5 ≤ 1.0 ≤ 1.5 ≤ 2.0
67 141 321 715 2,243
≤ 5.0
roads & lanes).(i.e., Overavenues);
the past 6 and years, other
there Main Roads (Highways) 581 9 18 42 94 294
has beenincreasing totalroadlength of all Share of total roadSecondary
length (%)Roads (Avenues)100% 2%
796 3%
12 7%
25 16%58 51%
128 402
active paved construction in Paved
roads (i.e., smaller roads & roads Other Roads (Roads & Lanes) 2,331 35 74 169 376 1,178
Bahrain, increasing lanes).totalOver length
the pastof all paved
6 years, Subtotal 3,708 56 118 37 269
| P a 597 g e 1,874
roads from 3,517 therekm hasinbeen
2012 active
to 3,708 km Unpaved roads
paved 730 11 23 53 118 369
in 2018, an average annual growth
road construction in Bahrain, rate of Total 4,438 67 141 321 715 2,243
about 0.9% per increasing
year. Unpavedtotal length roadsofhave all Share of total road length (%) 100% 2% 3% 7% 16% 51%

37 | P a g e
35
 elevations within Bahrain, or otherwise 2050 where the share of land inundated is
forcing them to respond to the prospects of between 11% and 22%, compared to 0.1% to
future inundation.
division for 2050 and 2100 (UNDESA, 2017). To
estimate whereTothis estimate the number
population would of persons
reside, affected
it was
assumed that the population density of each island high
by sea level rise, low, median, and
population estimates were obtained from the
would remain the same from 2016 through 2100.
United Nations Populations division for
2050 and 2100 (UNDESA, 2017). To
Figure 3-16 (top) illustrates
estimate wherethethisrange in the number
population would reside,
of affected peopleit wasinassumed
2050 and that2100 (corresponding
the population density of
to the higher each sea level rise scenarios; 2.0,
island would remain the same 5.0). By from
2050, between2016 3,000through
and 16,000
2100. are projected to be
negatively affected, corresponding to between 54%
Figure 3-16 (top) illustrates the range in the
and 74% of the total population. By 2100, between
number of affected people in 2050 and 2100
29,000 and 438,000 are projected
(corresponding to thetohigher
be negatively
sea level rise
affected, corresponding
scenarios; to between
2.0, 5.0). By62%2050,andbetween
65% of 3,000
the total population.
and 16,000 are projected to be negatively
affected, corresponding to between 54% and
Figure 3-16 (bottom)
74% ofillustrates
the total a comparison
population.in 2050
By 2100,
and 2100 of thebetween
share of29,000
land inundated
and 438,000 witharetheprojected
share to
of people affectedbe by negatively
inundation. affected,
In both corresponding
years and for to
all sea level risebetween
scenarios,62% andof 65%
the share of the total
land inundated
is much high than population.
the share of people affected. The
difference is greatest
Figure in 2050
3-16 where illustrates
(bottom) the share aofcomparison
land Figure 3-15: Top: Range of people in Bahrain impacted
inundated is between
in 2050 11%andand2100
22%, compared
of the shareto 0.1%
of land by sea level rise, 2050 and 2100; Bottom: Share of land
to 0.6% for theinundated
share of with
people theimpacted,
share of suggesting
people affected and people in Bahrain impacted by sea level rise, 2050
the population is already inhabiting higher elevations. and 2100
By 2100 the difference is much less: the share of land will eventually be at risk of seawater inundation
38 | P aingthe
e
inundated is between 31% and 85%, compared to 2% absence of effective adaptation measures.
to 14% for the share of people impacted, suggesting
a greater number of people inhabiting areas exposed This is well illustrated by mangroves which are found
to sea level rise. in low-lying wetlands. The current 56 hectares of
mangroves along the coasts of Tubli Bay in Northern
3.2.4. Adaptation implications Bahrain Island are under threat even at the lowest sea
The potential damage of rising seas on the eight level rise scenario because of their inability to migrate
assessed land use classes is evident, especially at high landward due to the built-up urban nature of adjacent
levels of sea level rise. Yet, even at smaller levels of sea lands. Another example is Bahrain's international
level rise, substantial land areas, roads, and communities airport which occupies about 5.7 km2 on Muharraq

Figure 3-16: Hawar Island Group results. Left: LULC map; Middle: Map of inundation by sea level rise
scenario; Right: Magnitude of inundation by sea level rise scenario by LULC class

by inundation. In both years and for all sea

36Population exposure level rise scenarios, the share of land
inundated is much high than the share of
Island. With sea level rise of 1.5 meters, facilities would optimality of coastal protection with either hard
experience flooding of about 30% of this area. measures (e.g., dikes, breakwaters) or soft measures
(e.g., mangrove plantations, beach nourishment).
Some adaptation measures have already taken place
in certain sectors. For example, while not explicitly Regardless of specific tools or combination of tools
in reference to sea level rise, Bahrain’s building codes applied, a framework for adaptation to sea level rise is
enacted in 2009 call for the height of the ground floor an urgent need in Bahrain. The launch of such an effort
of a new building being 1.5 meters above the level of the should be premised on the use of high-quality data, an
pavement surface (KoB, 2009). This can build resilience informed and engaged public, and suitable monitoring
of future buildings against future sea level rise, at least & evaluation protocols.
in a scenario where future sea level rise is limited to 1.5
meters above current MSL.
3.3. Water resources
Bahrain is extremely poorly endowed with water
Much remains to be done in Bahrain to ensure resources, having per capita freshwater availability
climate resilience. Adaptation planning dialogues are levels that are among the lowest in the world. Over
mostly confined to specialist communities within the
the past 45 years, rapid population and economic
country limited impact on national planning and policy growth - combined with low efficiency/conservation
dialogues. Going forward, it is recommended that and inadequate recycling/reuse - has contributed to a
systematic adaptation planning efforts be organized decline in per capita freshwater availability of 4.4% per
within an adaptation framework that address strategies
year – from 525 m3/yr in 1970 to about 70 m3/yr in
for protection, accommodation, retreat, and avoidance.
2015. At current rates, per capita freshwater availability
In the near-term, the focus should be on the following
could decline to less than 50 cubic meters by 2030.
elements, with the aim of increasing institutional
capacity to incorporate sea level rise risks within
In response, water authorities have focused on
development planning:
increasing water supply, primarily by expanding
seawater desalination capacity. While this has increased
●● Planning tools: Planning tools include activities of
per capita total water availability, there has not been
setting an overall policy to mitigate the effect of
adequate attention to the demand side. As a result,
sea level rise. At minimum, it should incorporate
sectoral water demands have escalated, water production
assessment of coastal hazards, coastal risk
and distribution costs have increased, and remaining
modeling/management, and development of groundwater resources have further deteriorated in
emergency preparedness strategies. terms of quantity and quality.
●● Regulatory tools: These include tools such as enacting Climate change will exacerbate an already unsustainable
land use regulations (e.g., zoning offsets from the situation. Direct threats include rising sea levels, lower
coastline), adjusting building codes (e.g., increasing precipitation, and higher temperatures. Sea level rise
the distance from pavement to ground floor) is expected to lead to seawater intrusion into fresh
and accounting for sea level rise in real estate groundwater lenses and adverse impacts on inlets/
development permits (e.g., identification of no- outlets of desalination plants. Lower precipitation
build zones). could lead to lower groundwater recharge rates. Higher
temperatures could lead to unsustainable levels of
●● Land use tools: These refer to tools in support groundwater and desalinated water use by agriculture,
of strategic adaptation and include such as land households, and businesses.
acquisition (i.e., purchase/transfer of development
rights), reclamation (e.g., adding more restrictions on Indeed, the main water resource management challenge
top of basic zoning requirements for certain high- facing Bahrain is how to balance decreasing water
risk areas), zoning (i.e., reclassifying highly vulnerable supply and increasing water use (i.e., the supply-demand
land for low risk uses) and subdivision regulation gap) in the context of a changing climate.
(e.g., minimum conservation requirements)
Implementing sustainable long-term water resource
●● Hard and soft structural tools: Structural tools include management strategies and investments while promoting
assessment frameworks by which to assess the national development with the least social, economic,

37
environmental and Heavyotherand costs is now recognized
unsustainable dependence as a on
national priority.fresh groundwater, particularly by the
agricultural and municipal sectors has led to
The rest of this excessive abstractiontherates.
section describes resultsSince of a 1965,
country-wide assessment of the impacts of climate the
annual withdrawals have exceeded
changeHeavy
on Bahrain’srecommended
and water resources,
unsustainable groundwater
based on aon
dependence safe
study yield,
by Zubari peaking
freshet groundwater, at more
al., 2018. The particularly than
aim of the by twice thethesafe yield
assessment
agricultural
was twofold; level in 2010.
and municipal
to identify This
impacts has
sectors resulted
posedhasbyledclimate in a severe
to
decline in aquifer water levels, causing the
changeexcessive
on future abstraction
water supply rates. and demand Since 1965,
under the
annual flow of
withdrawals natural springs
have to
exceeded stop and
the a 5-meter
current business-as-usual water policy environment,
recommended drop in groundwater
the groundwater safetableyield,
compared to Figure 3-17: Bahrain’s groundwater system (Zubari, et
and analyze thethecostsaquifer’s
and benefits associated
pre-development with levels al., 1997).
peaking at
increasing efficiency more than
and 2004). twice the safe
decreasing water distribution yield
level in (Zubari,
2010. This has resulted in a severe
losses. Alat zone,The share the
termed of desalinated
‘A’ aquifer water and the production
Khobar
decline inThis aquifer water levels,
unsustainable causing
pattern of the
groundwater
zone, termedhas increased rapidly (see
the ‘B’ aquifer, sinceFigure
the mid 1970s,
3-17). The at
flow of natural springshas
abstraction to disturbed
stop and athe 5-meter
aquifer natural
3.3.1.dropBackground ‘B’ aquiferroughly
zone 5.6%
is per
developedyear or 1.5
in times
highly the annual
fractured
in the groundwater
equilibrium table compared
conditions and led to to seawater
Figure 3-17: Bahrain’s groundwater system (Zubari, et
the aquifer’s
An acutely water-scarce pre-development
and underlying countrybrackish/saline
in a hyper levelsarid water limestonesaverage
al., 1997).
to
population
and dolomites and is growth rate. aquifer
the principal Today,
Bahrain’s desalination capacity is about
(Zubari, Bahrain
environment, 2004).
migrate has intoexperienced
the aquifer leading to ina Bahrain. The ‘A’ aquifer
increasingly zone has limited hydraulic
properties 892,000
The share and m 3
/d (309
due to its salinization
of desalinated Mm 3
/yr)
water production consisting
is used at very of
high deficits continuous
in its water budget
This unsustainable salinization
pattern since
of the and deterioration
early
groundwater 1970s. of
local Reverse
has increased
scales by rapidly
farmers.Osmosis
since the(RO),
Underlying midthese Multistage-Flash
1970s, at are the
layers
Implementing
abstraction thehasgroundwater
policies and measures
disturbed quality.
the thatThis
aquifer is illustrated
promote
natural a in
roughly (MSF),
5.6% per and
year Multi-Effect
or 1.5 times Distillation
the annual (MED)
sustainable Figure
balance 3-18 water
between (left) which
supply shows
and waterthat the highly brackish Rus and Umm Er Radhuma aquifers.
equilibrium conditions and led to seawater plants that correspond to 38%, 28%, and
elevation of climate
the groundwater table average population growth rate. Today,
demand andis central to building
underlying brackish/saline resilience
wateragainst to in the 34% of total capacity, respectively. Almost all
densely populated Bahrain’s desalination capacity is abouton
a background
migrate of intostrongthe aquifernorthern
economic growth.part
leading to ofaBahrain Heavyis and
of unsustainable
3 the raw water
dependence
input comes fresh
between 0.4 and 1.2 meters below mean 892,000 m /d particularly
sea
groundwater, (309 Mm /yr) 3
by consisting
the offrom and
agricultural
the
continuous salinization and deterioration of Arabian Gulf, with only a small percentage
level. The deterioration of groundwater Reverse Osmosis
municipal sectors (RO),
has led Multistage-Flash
tofrom
excessive abstraction
There the
aregroundwater
three main quality.sourcesThis of iswater
illustrated
supplyin in (MSF), (about
and 8%)
Multi-Effect coming Distillation brackish
(MED) water for
Figure quality
3-18 (left) is illustrated
which shows in Figure 3-18
that treated
the (right)
rates. Since 1965, annual withdrawals have exceeded
Bahrain: groundwater, desalinated water, and plants use in RO
that correspond units. to 38%, safe 28%,yield, and peaking
elevation which theshows
of demand groundwater
groundwater table salinity
in the contours the recommended groundwater
wastewater. On of the 5,000 mg/l side,in there
northernare three main a level
Bahrain, 34% of total capacity,these
Together, respectively.
units Almostsatisfy allnearly all
densely populated
water consuming sectors:northern
municipal, partagricultural,
of Bahrain isand at more than twice the safe yield level in 2010. This
greatly significantly exceeding previous of the raw waterrequirements
drinking input comesin the fromcountrythe as well
between 0.4 and
industrial. Key characteristics 1.2 meters
of below
each mean
supply sea
source has resulted in a severe decline in aquifer water levels,
levels. Arabian Gulf,
as a with only a portion
significant small percentage
of industrial and
level. The deterioration
and demand sector are outlined in the subsections of groundwater causing the flow offrom natural springs to for
stop and7% a
(about 8%) coming
commercial needs. brackish
From awater
share of only
quality is illustrated in Figure 3-18 (right) 5-meter drop in the groundwater table compared to
below. Desalinated water supply use in ROinunits.
1980, desalinated water now represents
which shows groundwater salinity contours the aquifer’s pre-development levels (Zubari, 2004).
of 5,000 mg/l in northern Bahrain, a level Together, these96%
about of total
units municipal
satisfy nearly water all supply,
Groundwater
greatlysupplysignificantly exceeding previous drinking requirements in the country as well
Groundwater This unsustainable pattern of groundwater abstraction
levels. represents the only natural, relatively as a significant portion of industrial and
has disturbed the aquifer natural equilibrium conditions
freshwater source available for Bahrain. It is contained commercial needs. From a share of only 7%
in the Desalinated
Dammam water aquifer system
supply which extends from and led todesalinated
in 1980, seawater and waterunderlying
now represents brackish/saline
central Saudi Arabia and consists of two zones, the water
aboutto96%
migrate into the
of total aquifer leading
municipal water supply,to a continuous
salinization and deterioration of the groundwater

Figure 3-18: Left: Groundwater table elevation contour map for Khobar zone in 2015 in units of meters
relative to mean sea level; Right: Salinity contour map for the Khobar zone in 2015 in units of mg of total
dissolved solids per liter (Source: Zubari, 2018 (contour maps prepared by Zubari; well data obtained from
MEW))

Figure 3-18: Left: Groundwater table elevation contour map for Khobar zone in 2015 in units of meters
41 | P a g e
relative to mean sea level; Right: Salinity contour map for the Khobar zone in 2015 in units of mg of total
dissolved solids per liter (Source: Zubari, 2018 (contour maps prepared by Zubari; well data obtained from
MEW))

38 41 | P a g e
quality. This iswith the balance
illustrated in Figure provided by groundwater
3-18 (left) which
shows that theresources
elevation(see of Figure 3-19).
the groundwater table
in the densely The
populated northern
desalination part ofproduces
process Bahrain isseveral
between 0.4 and 1.2 meters below
adverse environmental impacts. mean sea level.At The today’s
deterioration ofproduction
groundwater levels,quality
roughly is illustrated
1 billion min3/yr of
Figure 3-18 (right)
highlywhich salineshows and groundwater
hot brine issalinity discharged
contours of 5,000directlymg/l to in
thenorthern
Gulf withBahrain,
little to anolevelremedial
measures.
greatly significantly The salinity
exceeding previous of the brine can reach
levels.
up to 76,300 mg/l, or about double the
Desalinated wateraverage
supply salinity of the already highly saline Figure 3-19: Profile of municipal water supply in
The share ofArabian Gulf. The
desalinated watertemperature
production of the
has brine Bahrain, 1980-2015 (Source: EWA)
ranges from 28-33°C for
increased rapidly since the mid 1970s, at roughly 5.6% RO units to about
per year or 1.535-40°C
times the forannual
the MSF average MED thermalIn 1985, The
andpopulation treated wastewater
newest tertiarywas treatedusedwastewater
for the firstplant
time
growth rate. plants.
Today, In addition,
Bahrain’s brine contains
desalination capacity residualin limitedis amounts.
on Muharraq Today,Island,
bolstered withbyprivate
11 wastewater
sector
is about 892,000 chemicals
m3/d (309 fromMm the3/yr)
pretreatment
consisting process,
of
treatment ownership.
plants with The
a plant
total has
capacity a capacity
of about of about
352,770
heavy (RO), metals from corrosion 100,000
m /d, treated m³/d (expandable
wastewater has become to 160,000 m3/d)
an increasingly
(MSF), or
3
Reverse Osmosis Multistage-Flash
intermittently used cleaning agents. Theimportant of component
tertiary treatment and is water
in Bahrain’s serving the island
budget.
and Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) plants that of Muharraq as part of a decentralization
effluent from desalination plants is a multi-
correspond to 38%, 28%, and 34% of total capacity, policy. Though total treated
component waste, with multiple harmfulThe main wastewater treatment facility amounts
in Bahrainforis
respectively. Almost all of the raw water
effects on the marine environment. input comes 2017 were about 73,700 m 3
/d, only about 1%
the Tubli Water Pollution Control Center (WPCC)
from the Arabian Gulf, with only a small percentage is beinga reused
flow of (about 1,000 m /d). m Such
3
which handles over 328 thousand 3
/d,
(about 8%) comingTreated from brackish
wastewater water for use in RO
supply large amounts of unused tertiary treated
or about 73% of daily wastewater flow. The Tubli
units. wastewater represent major lost
In 1976, the main portion of a domesticWPCC is equipped with tertiary treatment technology
wastewater network was installed in Bahrain.to bringopportunities under the prevailing water
a portion of total effluents to acceptable
Together, these units satisfy nearly all drinking
Shortly thereafter, in 1982, the opportunitiesquality, with TDS levels lowerscarcity conditions, especially given that an
estimated annual amount of than groundwater.
about US$ 12.2
requirements in the country
associated with as thewell
use ofas treated
a significant
wastewaterOther minor treatment facilities are equipped with less
portion of industrial and commercial needs. From million is being paid by the government to
as a non-conventional water source forthan tertiary treatment systems (i.e., activated sludge
a share of only 7% in 1980,
agricultural desalinated
purposes became waterincreasingly
now the private sector to treat these waters to a
and membrane
tertiarybioreactors)
level. but represent less than 1%
represents about 96% of In
apparent. total1985,
municipal
treated water supply, was
wastewater of total treatment capacity.
with the balance used provided
for thebyfirst groundwater
time in limited resourcesamounts. At present, Bahrain is pursuing a policy of
Today, bolstered by 11 wastewater treatment
(see Figure 3-19). expansion in the re-use of treated wastewater
plants with a total capacity of about 352,770The newest tertiary treated wastewater plant is on
in irrigation. The primary objectives are to
The desalination m /d,
3 process
treated produces
wastewater several has adverse
become an Muharraq Island, with private
protect groundwater fromsectorfurtherownership.
lowering
environmental increasingly
impacts. At today’s importantproduction levels, inThe plant
component of has a capacity oftable,
the groundwater aboutdeterioration
100,000 m³/d in
roughly 1 billion m3/yrwater
Bahrain’s of budget.
highly saline and hot (expandable
waterto quality,
160,000and m³/d) of tertiary
satisfying demandstreatment
for
brine is discharged directly to the Gulf with little to and is serving
irrigationthe island of Muharraq The
and landscaping. as partpolicy
of a
The main wastewater treatment facility in
no remedial measures. The salinity of the brine can decentralization
incentivizespolicy. farmers
Though total to treated
use amounts
treated
Bahrain is the Tubli Water Pollution Control
reach up to 76,300 mg/l, or about double theaaverage for 2017 wastewater instead of groundwater1%byis
were about 73,700 m 3
/d, only about
Center (WPCC) which handles flow of over
providing
(aboutfree delivery of Such
treated wastewater
salinity of the already
328 thousandhighly saline
m3/d,Arabian
or about Gulf.
73%The of dailybeing reused 1,000 m3/d). large amounts
temperature ofwastewater
the brine ranges flow.fromThe 28-33°CTubliforWPCC RO to the farmer lands. Currently,
isof unused tertiary treated3 wastewater represent major an average of
units to about 35-40°C
equippedforwith the tertiary
MSF andtreatment
MED thermal 154 thousand
technologylost opportunities under m the
/d of treated wastewater
prevailing water scarcity is
delivered to 547 farms with a total area of
plants. In addition,
to bring brineacontains
portionresidual effluents toconditions, especially given that an estimated annual
of totalchemicals
from the pretreatment fromloweramount of 3,100 hectares.
about US$ 12.2 Thismillion
represents about
is being paid 92% of
by the
acceptableprocess, quality, heavy
with TDS metalslevels
than groundwater.
corrosion or intermittently Other agents.
used cleaning minor The treatmentgovernment all agricultural
to the private land area tointreat
sector Bahrain
theseIsland,
waters
facilities areplants equipped Muharraq
with less than tertiaryto a tertiary level. Island, and Sitra Island.
effluent from desalination is a multi-component
treatment
waste, with multiple systems
harmful (i.e., activated
effects on the marine sludge and Nevertheless, the reuse of treated wastewater
environment. membrane bioreactors) but represent less remains
At present, Bahrain a largely
is pursuing untapped
a policy opportunity
of expansion in
than 1% of total treatment capacity. Bahrain.
in the re-use Much wastewater
of treated of the wastewater in only
in irrigation. The
Treated wastewater supply treated to secondary levels
primary objectives are to protect groundwater from and discharged to
In 1976, the main portion of a domestic wastewater the Gulf.
further lowering Trends
of the in treated
groundwater wastewater
table, deteriorationare
network was installed in Bahrain. Shortly thereafter, in water quality, and satisfying demands for 42 |irrigation
Page
in 1982, the opportunities associated with the use of and landscaping. The policy incentivizes farmers to
treated wastewater as a non-conventional water source use treated wastewater instead of groundwater by
for agricultural purposes became increasingly apparent. providing free delivery of treated wastewater to the

39
 illustrated aninaverage
farmer lands. Currently, Figure of3-20 for the Tubli
154 thousand
m /d of treated wastewater is delivered to 547 farmsranges
3 WPCC. Tertiary treated wastewater
with a total area from of roughly 29% to This
3,100 hectares. 42% represents
and is used for
about 92% of all agricultural land area inand
farm irrigation, landscaping, within the
Bahrain
Island,illustrated
Muharraq plantIsland,
itself.andThe Sitrarest of the wastewater
Island.
in Figure
received is treated 3-20 for
only tothe Tubli level
a secondary
WPCC. and Tertiary treated wastewater
discharged to Tubli Bay, rangeswith the
Nevertheless, the reuse
from roughly of to treated wastewater remains
associated environmental impactsforespecially
29% 42% and is used
a largely
farmuntapped
irrigation,
on the opportunity
landscaping,
mangrove in Bahrain.
stands andinwithintheMuch the of
Bay.
the wastewater
plant itself. The rest of the wastewaterand
in only treated to secondary levels Figure 3-20: Amounts of wastewater received in Tubli
received
discharged to theisGulf.
treated
Municipal Trendsonlydemand
water intotreated
a secondary
wastewater levelare WPCC, tertiary treated, reused, and discharged to the
and indischarged
illustrated Figure 3-20 to Tubli
for the Tubli Bay,WPCC. withTertiary
the
Municipal water impacts demand especiallyencompasses all sea, 2000-2015 (data source: Sanitation Directorate,
treatedassociated
wastewaterenvironmental
ranges from roughly 29% to 42% Ministry of Works, Municipalities and Urban Planning)
on the end usersstands
mangrove that are in supplied
the Bay. by the municipal
and is used for distribution
farm irrigation, network. landscaping, This and within includessince 1985, primarily
which due to has
typically desalinated
high levelswater displacing
of total
the plant itself.households,
The rest of the businesses, wastewater received is Figure 3-20: Amounts of wastewater received in Tubli
government
treatedMunicipal water
only tobuildings, demand level and discharged to WPCC,
a secondary tertiarydissolved
groundwater, treated,which solids
reused, (TDS).
typically
and hasMajor
discharged reductions
high levels
to the of total in
as well as some industrial facilities dissolved TDSsolids content
(TDS). occurred
Major in 1999,
reductions 2008,
in and
TDS
all sea, 2000-2015 (data source: Sanitation Directorate,
Municipal
Tubli Bay, withand thewater
farms. demand
associated It currently encompasses
environmentalrepresents impacts
about 60%content 2014, coinciding with desalination capacity
Ministry occurred
of Works, in 1999,and
Municipalities 2008,UrbanandPlanning)
2014, coinciding
end on
especially users ofthat
the are supplied
mangrove
annual standsby
water in the municipal
Bay.
consumption and haswith desalinationexpansioncapacity coming expansion
online (i.e.,coming mix ofonline
new
distributionexperienced network. high This growth includesdue to urban(i.e., which typically
units and has high of
expansion levels
existing of units).
total Today,
households, mix of new units and expansion of existing
Municipal demand businesses,
water growth, expansion in tourism, government and increasedunits).dissolvedwith solids (TDS). Major reductions in demand
buildings, as well as some industrial facilities TDS Today,about
content with
occurred
95%
aboutinof95%
municipal
1999, of2008, water
municipal
and water
Municipal water desalinated
demand water encompassesavailability all (see
endFigure
users 3-21; met by seawater desalination, TDS levels are
demand met by seawater desalination, TDS levels are
that areand farms.
supplied Itthe
left).
by currently
municipal represents
distribution aboutnetwork.
60% 2014, coinciding
well below withthedesalination
national standard capacityof 1,000
of annual water consumption and has well below coming
expansion the national online standard of 1,000
of newmg/l and
This includes households,
Historically, businesses,
per capita government
municipal water mg/l and half the(i.e.,
WHO mix standard of 600
experienced high growth due to urban half the WHO standard of 600 units).
mg/l (see Figure 3-21,
buildings, as well as some industrial has facilities and farms. high,units andmg/l expansion
(see Figureof existing Today,
3-21, right). Declining levels
growth, consumption
expansion in tourism, been relatively
and increased right).
with aboutDeclining
95% levels
of of
municipal other
water
of other contaminants such as magnesium contaminants
demand such
It currently represents
reaching about
690 liters60% per ofdayannual
in the water
late 1980’s.
desalinated water availability (see Figure 3-21; as
metmagnesium
by seawater anddesalination,
and sulphates sulphates
are also are
TDS alsolevels
evident evident
over over
arethe the
2005-
consumption
left). and Withhas theexperienced
introductionhigh growth
of block waterduetariffs
well below
2005-2016 2016the
period. national standard of 1,000
period.
to urban growth, in 1986,
expansionthesein rates have been
tourism, declining at anmg/l and
and increased half the WHO standard of 600
Historically,
desalinated average
water per rate
availability capita of municipal
(see about 3-21;
Figure 1.2% water per year.mg/l (see Figure 3-21, right). Declining levels
left).
consumption has municipal
been relatively high, Agricultural Agricultural
water demand water demand
Currently, water consumption isof other contaminants such as magnesium
reaching 690 liters per day perinwater the late day1980’s. Agricultural water
Agricultural demand
water is associated
demand with irrigated
is associated with
Historically, perabout
capita500municipal
liters person (see Figure 3-and sulphates
consumption are also evident over the 2005-
With the21; introduction
middle). of blockthis
Notably, water tariffs
level includes agriculture
all using traditional
irrigated agriculture (i.e., floodtraditional
using irrigation) (i.e.,
and
has been relatively high, reaching 690 liters per day 2016 period.
in 1986, water
these rates
losseshave from been
leakagesdeclining
in the atdistribution
an modern methods (i.e., drip and sprinkler
flood irrigation) and modern methods (i.e., irrigation).
in theaverage
late 1980’s.rate With
of the
about introduction
1.2% per ofyear.
block
It currently represents
dripwateranddemand aboutirrigation).
sprinkler 30% of annual water
It currently
tariffs insystem
water Currently, 1986, as wellrates
these
municipal
as illegal
water have connections.
been declining
consumption is
Net perAgricultural
capita daily water consumption typicallyconsumption representsin Bahrain.
about While 30% of agricultural
annual water
at an average
about 500 rateliters
of about
per person 1.2%day per year.Figure Currently, Agricultural water demand is associated with
ranges between 325 and(see 360 liters.3- demand increased
consumption at aninaverage
Bahrain. annual
Whilerate of 4.1%
agricultural
municipal water consumption
21; middle). Notably, this is about 500 litersallper
level includes irrigated agriculture using traditional (i.e.,
during 1980s waterand demand
1990s,increased
peaking at about an average 185 Mm annual
3
in
personwater Municipal
day losses
(see Figure
from leakages water
3-21; inquality
middle). has improved
Notably,
the distribution this flood irrigation) and modern methods (i.e.,
1999, it rate steadily
has of 4.1% declined
during 1980s by anand 1990s,of
average peaking
2.1%
system assubstantially
level includes allwell
water losses
as illegal since from 1985,
connections. primarily
leakages Net inperthe due todrip and sprinkler irrigation).
per year at about
since then,185totaling
Mm3 in ItMm
1251999, currently
3 it has steadily
in 2015. This
distribution desalinated
capita system
daily as water
well as water
consumption displacing
illegal connections. groundwater,
typically Net represents about 30% of annual water
parallels the reduction in agricultural land area due to
ranges
per capita between
daily water325 and 360 liters.
consumption typically ranges consumption in Bahrain. While agricultural
widespread groundwater salinization; from a high of
between 325 and 360 liters. water demand increased at an average annual
Municipal water quality has improved 10,000 hectares in 1999 (FAOSTAT) agricultural land
rate of 4.1% during 1980s and 1990s, peaking
substantially since 1985, primarily due to dropped to about 3,700 hectares in 2015.
Municipal water quality at about 185 Mm in 1999, it has steadily
3
desalinated water has improved
displacing substantially
groundwater, Until 1985, irrigated agriculture in Bahrain relied

Figure 3-21: Left: Average daily water consumption in the municipal sector, 1979-2015; Middle: Average per
capita daily consumption in the municipal sector, 1980-2015; Right: Average annual municipal water
quality, 1985-2016 (source: EWA)
43 | P a g e
Figure 3-21: Left: Average daily water consumption in the municipal sector, 1979-2015; Middle: Average per
capita daily consumption in the municipal sector, 1980-2015; Right: Average annual municipal water
quality, 1985-2016 (source: EWA)
43 | P a g e
40
 holdings are 5 hectares in size, or less) with
build resilience in the equilibrium between
short tenancy agreements, generally for only
three years. These factors discourage
exclusively on investments
groundwaterintoefficient
meet itsirrigation even with
water needs.
Since then, treated wastewater has taken upananurgent
government subsidies, suggesting
increasing shareneed for strategic
of water supply,policy intervention.
reaching about 23%
of the sector’s water requirements by 2015 (see Figure
Industrial water demand
3-22). The replacement of increasingly brackish
groundwater withIndustrial
higherwater demand
quality water ishasassociated
arrested with
industries such as aluminum,
the loss of agricultural lands in providing reliable food &
beverages,
water sources for irrigation andpharmaceuticals, textiles,
this has stabilized the
farmers income. petrochemicals, and construction. It
Figure 3-22: Agricultural sector water consumption,
currently represents about 8% of annual
1979-2015 (source: Ministry of Municipalities Affairs
water consumption in Bahrain. and Urban Planning)
The heavy dependence on inefficient flood irrigation
methods is a major contributor to excessive water sized industries while small industries have turned
consumption rates. Typically, flood irrigation accounts 44 | P a g e
to the municipal distribution network. Currently, the
for 65% of all irrigated lands and has an efficiency of industrial sector relies on on-site desalination for nearly
only 25-40% (Al Masri, 2009). More efficient methods 40% of its annual water requirements. Nevertheless,
such as drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation are brackish groundwater and the municipal water network
applied to only 32% and 3% of agricultural areas, still account for significant shares of industrial water
respectively. As a result, average losses represent about use (see Figure 3-23). Going forward, dependence on
30% of all water used for agriculture. the Alat and Khobar zones of the Dammam aquifer
are expected to further decline, offset mostly by on-
There are several other contributors to excessive site desalinated water.
water consumption. These include the cultivation
of high water-consuming crops (e.g., alfalfa) and
the absence of agricultural water tariffs. In addition, 3.3.2. Approach
farm size is typically small (i.e., 84% of farm holdings The objective of the vulnerability assessment was
are 5 hectares in size, or less) with short tenancy twofold: to quantify the impact of climate change on
agreements, generally for only three years. These Bahrain’s sensitive municipal water supply-demand
factors discourage investments in efficient irrigation equilibrium and to quantify the costs and benefits
even with government subsidies, suggesting an urgent of adaptation policies and measures that can build
need for strategic policy intervention. resilience in the equilibrium between supply and
demand in the municipal water distribution network.
Industrial water demand
Industrial water demand is associated with industries The municipal sector was selected for analysis because
such as aluminum, food & beverages, pharmaceuticals, of its crucial role in the country’s socio-economic
textiles, petrochemicals, and construction. It currently development. It currently accounts for most of
represents about 8% of annual water consumption in the water consumption, about 60%, and unlike the
Bahrain. agricultural and industrial sectors, is expected to
grow rapidly. Moreover, the municipal sector is the
Prior to 1980, the industrial sector relied on main driver for the wastewater sector. Changes in
groundwater to meet all of its water requirements. In municipal water consumption directly lead to changes
an effort to diminish stress on the Alat and Khobar in quantities of treated wastewater reuse, which in
freshwater zones of the Dammam aquifer, industry turn affects the use of groundwater for agricultural
was largely prohibited by government decree (i.e., purposes.
Amiri Decree No. 12/1980 and Ministerial Order
No. 23 of 1980) from using these zones. Instead, the A dynamic mathematical model representation of
sector was mostly limited to the use of the deeper Rus- the municipal water system was developed using
Umm Er Radhuma aquifer, a brackish to saline water Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) software.
lens (TDS of 5,000-25,000 mg/L) in central Bahrain Population data were obtained from the Information
island. and e-Government Authority (IeGA); desalination data
were obtained from EWA; groundwater and treated
After 1980, industrial production has increasingly wastewater data were obtained from the Ministry of
relied on on-site desalination at large- and medium- Works, Municipalities and Urban Planning. A planning
period from 2016-2035 was assumed.

41
Methodology supply and demand in the municipal water
The assessmentdistribution
involved several network. major steps, as briefly
described in theThe bullets below. sector was selected for
municipal
analysis because of its crucial role in the
●● Situation Analysis:
country’s Thissocio-economic
involved an assessment development. of It
current water supply
sectorand
currently demandmain
accounts
conditions, forin the
most municipal
problems of the water
and water
distribution
consumption,
issues in Bahrain’s waternetwork.
about through
sector 60%, and unlike the
literature
agricultural
review, dataThe and
municipal
collection, industrial
and trend sector sectors,
was selected
analysis; is expected for
to grow rapidly. Moreover,
analysis because of its crucial role in the the municipal
sector
country’s
●● Model development: is the
This main driver
socio-economic
involved fordevelopment.
the wastewater
the construction of It
sector.
a simple mathematical Changes
currently accounts model using in
for most municipal
WEAP21 of the water
for water
consumption directly lead to changes in Figure 3-23: Water use in industrial sector by source,
municipal water supply/demand. The model was the
consumption, about 60%, and unlike
quantities
agricultural of treated wastewater reuse, which 2015 (source: EWA)
validated using availableand data industrial
for the periodsectors, is expected
2010-
in turn
to grow affects
rapidly. the use
Moreover, of groundwater
the municipal for
2015 and then used as the basis for projections gap between
would be advanced, water supply
as outlined in theand demand,
bullets and
below.
agricultural
sector is thepurposes.
main driver for the wastewater
from a 2015 base year through 2035. Figure 3-24 selection of priority adaptation
Asector.dynamic
provides a schematic
Changes in municipal model
diagram ofmathematical
the Bahrain water
water intervention
●● Awareness raising: options
This would for analysis;
involve social
consumption
representation directly
of the lead
municipal to changes
water system in Figure 3-23: Water use in industrial sector by source,
supply and quantities
demand model; campaigns and government incentives to
Analytical
2015§(source: EWA)framework: This involved the
was developed of treated
using wastewater
Water Evaluation reuse, which And emphasize
in turn affects thesoftware.
use of groundwater for the
developmentimportance
of twooftypeswaterofefficiency
scenariosand of
Planning (WEAP) Population data gap between water supply and demand, and
●● Adaptation option screening:
agricultural This
purposes. involved developing conservation
future among
water supply the andgeneral
demand. population.
The first
were obtained from the Information and e- selection
an inventory of available water management was a set ofof Reference priorityscenariosadaptation
that
Government
A dynamic Authority (IeGA); desalination
mathematical model intervention options for analysis;
options that can reduce the gap between water ●● Strengthened
assumedblocknotariffs:
adaptation
Up untilinterventions, with
recently water
data were obtained
representation of the from EWA; groundwater
municipal water system tariffs and
supply andand demand,
treated and selectiondata
wastewater of werepriority
obtained werewithout
§ Analytical heavily climate change;
subsidized
framework: This and the did
involvedsecondnot
the
was developed using Water Evaluation And type was a set of Policy scenarios, with and
adaptation fromintervention
the (WEAP) options
Ministry of for analysis;
Works, Municipalities recover minimum production and
development of two types of scenarios of distribution
Planning software. Population data without climate change.
and costs. future water
Effective supply
1 March and demand.
2016, The first
water tariffs for
wereUrban Planning.
obtained from Athe planning
Information periodand from e-
●● Analytical framework: was a set of Reference scenarios that
2016-2035
Government This
wasinvolved
assumed.
Authority the(IeGA);
development desalination commercial, § Adaptationindustrial,
policy touristic,
modeling: andThisother non-
involved
of two typesdataof scenarios of future water
were obtained from EWA; groundwater supply and modeling the impact on water supply with
householdassumed
users no
are adaptation
being interventions,
gradually strengthened
and
demand. The Methodology
first was a set of Reference scenarios in and without
demand
accordance from
with climate
thethe change;
implementation
new tarifftheschedule
second
priority
and treated wastewater data were obtained
that assumed no adaptation interventions, with steps, established type was
by aEWA.
adaptation setinterventions
of Policy
The blockscenarios,
using
waterwithtariff
and
the
from
The the
assessmentMinistry of Works,
involved severalMunicipalities
major
was from structure without
validated
is shownclimate in change.
mathematical Figuremodel.
3-25.The impacts
and withoutas and Urban
climate
briefly Planning.
change;
described inAthe
the planning
second typeperiod
bullets below.
2016-2035
a set of Policy scenarios, waswith assumed.
and without climate from climate change,
§ Adaptation policy modeling: as wellThis
as the costs
involved
§ Situation Analysis: This involved an
change. ●● New legislation:
modeling the impact
To promote on use
water water supply and
efficiency
assessment of current water sector
Methodology demand from the implementation priority
conservation, new legislation would be needed to
conditions, main problems and issues in adaptation interventions using the
●● Adaptation policy
The modeling:water
assessment
Bahrain’s This involved
involved
sector modeling
several
through major steps,
literature
strengthen existing building codes, promote water
the impact on asreview,
briefly
water datadescribed
supply and in the
demand bullets
from
collection, and trend analysis; below.
the saving validated
devices suchmathematical
as low-flow model. The impacts
shower heads,
implementation priorityAnalysis:
adaptationThis interventions faucet aerators, automatic shut-off nozzlescosts
from climate change, as well as the and
Situation
§§ Model development: This involved the
involved an
using the validated
assessment of mathematical model. The
construction of acurrent simple water mathematical sector
impacts fromconditions,
climate change, main asproblems
well as the and costsissues in
model using WEAP21 for municipal water
and benefits from transitioning
Bahrain’s water to a climate
sector throughresilientliterature
supply/demand. The model was validated
water supply usingand demand
review, available system
data collection,
data for were thecalculated
and trend
period analysis;
2010-
as the difference between the Reference and Policy
§ Model development: This involved for
2015 and then used as the basis the
Scenarios. projections from a 2015 base year through
construction of a simple mathematical
2035.
modelFigureusing WEAP213-24 provides a schematic
for municipal water
Adaptation interventions
diagram of the Bahrain
supply/demand. The model was validated water supply and
Two strategic interventions
demand were considered
model; data for the period 2010-
using available to ensure
a stable equilibrium between
2015 and option futureused
then waterassupply the and basis for
§ Adaptation screening: This involved
demand under climate change.
projections from a 2015
developing an inventory of available waterbase year through
2035. Figureoptions 3-24 provides Figure 3-24: Conceptual WEAP Model for water
management that can areduce schematicthe resources system in Bahrain
The first interventiondiagram aimsof to the
achieve Bahrain
a 33% water
reductionsupply and
demand
in per capita municipal model;
water demand, from the current
level of 183 to 122 m per person perscreening:
year by 2035, 45 | P a g e
Thiswith
3
§ Adaptation option involved
a policy start year developing
of 2016. Toan achieve
inventory this target, three water
of available
complementary demand side options
management policies Figure 3-24: Conceptual WEAP Model for water
management that can reduce the resources system in Bahrain

45 | P a g e
42
 others for new andbuildings
benefits from whiletransitioning
existing buildings to a climate
would be retrofitted. Such devices
resilient water supply and demand system can reduce
water consumption by 20% as
were calculated to the
40%difference
(Ababa and between
Alhaji, 2001;the Al-Rumikhani, 2001).
Reference and Policy Scenarios.
considered as described in the bullets that § Groundwater availability: This was estimated
The second follow:Adaptation interventions
intervention aims to reduce leakage in to be about 12.5 billion cubic meters in the
2015 Base Year, with annual aquifer
§ Reference
the water distribution
Two strategic scenarios:
network. Threewere
Significant
interventions Reference
quantities
considered recharge rate assumed a constant 110 Mm³
of desalinatedscenarios
water
to ensureandawere analyzed.
groundwater
stable equilibrium thatOne enterscenario
between thefuture
(Al-Noaimi, 1999);
pipeline network assumedare lost no
through policy interventions
surface
water supply and demand under climate leaks from to
improve the water
change. pipelines or unseen leaks due
above- and below-ground supply/demand § Municipal water demand: Overall per capita
equilibrium
to material failure orfittings.
any change in the future Figuremunicipal waterforconsumption - including
The or
climate.firstfaulty
intervention
Existing
Currently,
aims
expansion to achieveabout
plans afor
33% 3-25: Schedule
consumption by
strengthening water
industry and
block
farms
19% of all municipal
reduction waterinproduction
per capita does not reachwater
municipal tariffs in Bahrain for non-household users. (Source:
the end user due desalination
to leakage. and
Through wastewater
investments treatment through the municipal distribution
National Energy Efficiency Action Plan) system
demand,
plants from the current
were incorporated. The other level of 183into two122 - was assumed constant at 500 liters per day
detection and repair,
m 3
per this
person secondper intervention
year by 2035, aims
with topolicy
a network are lost through surface leaks for
from
Reference scenarios incorporated the (183 m3/year) in the reference scenarios
achieve a 22% start
reduction
yearonin per
ofwater capita
2016. Tomunicipal
achieve watertarget,●● Demand side management scenarios: Two scenarios
impacts demand fromthis RCP4.5 above- and
the projection period; below-ground pipelines or
demand, fromand threeRCP8.5.
the current complementary
level of 183 to demand
142 m 3
per side considered
unseen the leaksimpact
due to of policies
material to achieve
failure or faultya
person per year management
by 2035, with policies
a policywould be advanced,
start year of as 33%§ Population growth:
in per From
reductionCurrently,
fittings. capita a population
municipal
about 19% water of ofuse
all
§ Policy
outlined scenarios:
in the Six
bullets
2016. To achieve this target, two complementary leakPolicy
below. scenarios were about
by 2035 1.44water
through
municipal million
awareness in raising,
production 2015,
does Bahrain’s
strengthened
not reach
analyzed,
mitigation policies would beas summarized
advanced, below:
as outlined blockpopulation
the endand isnew
user assumed
due to reach
to with2.6
leakage. onemillion
Through
§ Awareness raising: This would involveinsocial by
tariffs,
2035, an average
legislation;
annual growth
scenario
rate of
the bullets below. Demand sideandmanagement
ü campaigns government scenarios:
incentives Twoto investments
analyzed under RCP4.5,in detection
the other andunder
repair, this
RCP8.5.
3.0%;
second intervention aims to achieve a 22%
scenarios considered
emphasize the importance the impact of water of
●● Leak detection:efficiency
policies
This would toand achieve
involve a 33%
the
conservation among inthe●●
reduction
strengthening reduction
§ Desalinated
Leakage in
reductionwater per
share:capita
scenarios: Two municipal
Desalinated
scenarios water, water
as
considered
per capita
of the leak general
detection municipal water
population.
programme withinuseEWA’s by 2035 demand,
a share
the impact from
of totalthe current
municipal level of
water
of policies to achieve a 22% reduction 183 to
supply,142
Leakage Detection through andawareness
Control Group raising,tostrengthened
perform m
in per
3
per
remains person
capita municipal per
a constant year
water by 2035,
at use
96% with a policy
over through
by 2035 the
§ Strengthened block tariffs: Up until recently start
planning year of 2016.
period, To
with achieve
the this
balance target,
met two
by
more frequent block tariffs,
leaktariffs
detection and new
surveys legislation;
and expandwith the installation of the variety of water leakage
water
one scenario were heavilyunder
analyzed subsidized and complementary
groundwater; and leak mitigation policies
the use of leak did detection
not recover technologies
minimum (e.g.,RCP4.5,
production leak and reduction measures; with one scenario analyzed
the other under RCP8.5.free-floating would be advanced, as outlined in the bullets
noise correlators,
distribution thermography
costs. Effective 1 March 2016, one§ Climate change: Average
under RCP4.5, the other annual
under temperature
RCP8.5.
below.
Leakagetariffs
inline leak üdetectors,
water reduction
etc). forscenarios:
commercial,Two scenarios
industrial, increases associated with RCP 4.5 and 8.5
considered the impact
touristic, and other non-household users of policies to ●● § Leak
climate
Integrated detection:
were
policy scenarios: This
considered Thewould
and involve
last assumed
two tothe
scenarios
●● Leak control: are achieve
This being a 22%
would involve reduction
gradually several in per
strengthened capita
available in strengthening
reach 0.22°C of
and the
0.96°C
considered the integration of both demand side leak by detection
2035,
municipal water
accordance
currently technologies with use
including theby 2035tariff
new
Active through
Leakage the
schedule programme
respectively,
management within
and leading
leakage anEWA’s
toreduction
additional Leakage
policies;1.38with
3Detection and Control Group to perform
Control, Pressure installation
establishedManagement, of the
by EWA. The block variety of water
water tariff
Networks m per °C of per capita
one scenario analyzed one under RCP4.5, thewater consumption
more frequent leak detection surveys and
Rehabilitations and Speed & Quality of Repairone
leakage
structure reduction
is shown inmeasures;
Figure with
3-25. otherin under
that year, on average.
RCP8.5.
scenario analyzed one under RCP4.5, expand the use of leak detection
(Lambert, § 2003).
New legislation:
the other under To RCP8.5. promote water use technologies (e.g., leak noise correlators,
efficiency and conservation, new legislation Tablethermography
3–3: Assumptionsfree-floating
underpinning the inline
water leak
Scenario development Integrated
ü would be policy
needed scenarios: The lastexisting
to strengthen two detectors, etc).
resource adaptation policy assessment
Reference and policy scenarios
building scenariosconsidered
codes, promote
were the integration
constructedwater tosaving of Value
both
devices demand
such as side
low-flow
reflect plausible potential futures of water supply and managementshower and
heads, § Leak control: This would involve
Parameter several
(2015-2035)

demand in Bahrain. leakage

faucet reduction
aerators,
Specifically, ninepolicies;
automatic with
shut-off
scenarios were one
nozzles available
Cost of currently
water supply (2015 US$/mtechnologies
3)
including
1.9

scenario ActiveenergyLeakage
Desalination Control,
requirement (kWh/m 3)
Pressure
20
and
considered as described others inanalyzed
for
the new
bullets onethat
buildingsunder RCP4.5,
while
follow: existing Desalination technology mix: 100%
the other under RCP8.5.
buildings would be retrofitted. Such Management, Networks Rehabilitations
Reverse osmosis 38%
devices Threecan reduce water consumption and Speed & Quality of Repair (Lambert,
●● Reference scenarios: Reference scenarios by 2003).
Multistage flash 28%
Key assumptions
20% to 40% (Ababa and Alhaji, 2001; Al- Multi-Effect Distillation 34%
were analyzed. One scenario assumed no policy
The Rumikhani,
interventions toassessment
2001).
improve the water involved several key
supply/demand
Brine production (m3/m3 potable water)
Scenario development
3.8
Share of intake converted into potable water:
equilibriumassumptions,
The
or anysecond changeasintervention
briefly
in the described
future toin reduce
aimsclimate. the Reverse osmosis 87%
bullets below.
leakage in plans A
the watersummary of other
distribution and key
network. Reference and Multistage policy flash scenarios were
Existing expansion for desalination 13%
assumptions is provided in Table 3-3. constructed Multi-Effect
to reflect plausible potential
wastewater treatment plants were incorporated.water
Significant quantities of desalinated
futures
Distillation
of water supply and demand
15%
in
The other and groundwater
§ Temporality:
two Reference Average that
annual
scenarios enter
waterthe
incorporated pipeline
demands
Electricity use shares 100%
Bahrain. Desalinated
Specifically, nine scenarios
water production 97% were
the impacts wereon modeled,
water demand as opposedfrom RCP4.5to seasonal and or Transmission & distribution 3%
RCP8.5. daily water demands; Wastewater treated (% of municipal use) 46 50%
|Page
Wastewater treatment cost (2015 US$/m3) 1.1
Desalination GHG emission factor (kg
●● Policy scenarios: Six Policy scenarios were analyzed, CO2e/m3)
13

as summarized below:
47 | P a g e
43
Key assumptions
●● The assessment involved several key assumptions, ●● Policy phase-in schedule: The per capita reduction
as briefly described in the bullets below. A summary policy was assumed to be implemented starting in
of other key assumptions is provided in Table 3-3. 2016 and ramped up linearly up to its 2035 target.
The leakage reduction policy was assumed to be
§ Policy phase-in schedule: The per capita suitable organizational framework to ensure
●● Temporality: Average
reduction annual
policy waswater demands
assumed to were
be implemented
sustainable waterstarting
resourceinmanagement.
2020 and ramped up
modeled, as opposed
implemented to seasonal
starting in 2016orand daily water
ramped linearly up to its 2035 target.
demands; Indeed, the effective implementation of
up linearly up to its 2035 target. The
leakage reduction policy was assumed to be ●●policies
Capitalaiming
and O&M at percosts:
capita municipal
These water
costs are associated
●● Groundwater availability: This inwas estimated to be consumption reduction and controlling
with the various technologies and measures for
implemented starting 2020 and ramped
leakage losses are is closely tied to the
about up
12.5 billion cubic meters in
linearly up to its 2035 target. the 2015 Base implementing the two policies. For the purpose of
responsibilities of Water Resources Council,
Year, with annual aquifer recharge rate assumed a the current analysis, they have been assumed to be
§ Capital and O&M costs: These costs are as outlined below:
constant 110 Mm³
associated (Al-Noaimi,
with the various 1999);
technologies zero due to the difficulty in accurately estimating
§ Priority-setting:
local costs for Formulation of the schemes.
the intervention overall It is
and measures for implementing the two
●● Municipal water demand: water resources that
policies and analyses
strategiesensure
for that
policies. For theOverall per of
purpose capita
themunicipal
current recommended future
water analysis,
consumption - including consumption the country, including
such costs are accounted for. setting up of
they have been assumed to be zero
by industry anddifficulty
farms in through theestimating
municipal appropriate institutional and legislative
due to the accurately frameworks;
local costs
distribution for the
system intervention
- was assumed schemes.
constant Itat ●● Present value of costs and benefits: A societal discount
is recommended
500 liters per day (183 m3that /year)future
in the analyses
reference § Management: Coordination
rate of 5% (real) was appliedof government
to calculate cumulative
ensure
scenarios forthat
thesuch costs areperiod;
projection accounted for. water policies and ensuring
costs over the planning period. integration of
these policies; and
§ Present value of costs and benefits: A societal
●● Population growth:rate
discount Fromof a5%population
(real) wasofapplied
about 1.44
to § Monitoring:
3.3.3. ResultsFollow up the implementation
millioncalculate
in 2015, Bahrain’s
cumulativepopulation
costs overis assumed
the Theof results
water policies
describedandbelow
plans make
and set
clearup that it
to reach 2.6 million
planning period.by 2035, an average annual priorities for the implementation of the
is imperative for Bahrain to formulate a clear
growth rate of 3.0%; developed strategies and programs.
comprehensive national water policy and strategy
3.3.3. Results Such institutional reform willresource
have a keymanagement
role
based on integrated water
●● Desalinated water share:
The results Desalinated
described water,clear
below make as a share
that in addressing
(IWRM) the and
principles watertosector
accountchallenges
for future in climate
of total
it ismunicipal
imperative water
for supply,
Bahrainremains a constant
to formulate a change. In 2016, Bahrain moved one stepa in this
Bahrain, and lead to the formulation of
at 96% over the planning period, with
clear comprehensive national water policy the balance clear comprehensive,
direction by establishing aintegrated, national
National Water Resources
met and
by groundwater;
strategy based and on integrated water water policy and strategy. This is understood
Council (Royal Decree No. 36/2009) to reactivate
resource management (IWRM) principles as an indispensable first step forward in the
the previously formed High Water Council in 1982,
●● Climate
and tochange:
accountAverage
for futureannual
climate temperature
change. In long intricate path to sustainable water
seen as the most suitable organizational framework to
increases associated with RCP 4.5 and 8.5inclimate
2016, Bahrain moved one step this management under conditions of acute water
ensure sustainable
scarcity, water growth,
socio-economic resourceandmanagement.
climate
weredirection by establishing
considered and assumeda National
to reach Water
0.22°C
Resources Council (Royal Decree
and 0.96°C by 2035, respectively, leading to No.an change. The rest of this section provides a
36/2009) to reactivate the previously formed Indeed,
brief the effectiveof implementation
summary of policies
the vulnerability
additional 1.38 m per °C of per capita water
3
High WaterinCouncil in 1982, aiming at per capita municipal water consumption
assessment.
consumption that year, on seen as the most
average. reduction and controlling leakage losses are is closely

Table 3–4: Reference scenario results (with and without climate change)
Annual totals Cumulative by 2035
In In 2035
Parameter Units 2015 Reference RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Reference RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Water consumption Mm3 263 474.7 475.5 478.2 7,601 7,608 7,632
Consumption Electricity for desalinated
GWh 5,042 9,114 9,129 9,181 145,943 146,076 146,536
& water distribution
Water production 252 456.2 456.9 459.5 7,304 7,311 7,334
Reverse osmosis 92 165.4 165.7 166.6 2,649 2,651 2,660
Supply Multistage flash Mm3 76 137.6 137.9 138.6 2,204 2,206 2,213
Multi-Effect Distillation 85 153.1 153.4 154.2 2,452 2,454 2,462
Groundwater 11 18.99 19.02 19.13 304 304 305
Wastewater
Mm3 131 237.4 237.7 239.1 3,801 3,804 3,816
Waste generated/treated
Brine discharge Mm3 987 1,784 1,787 1,797 28,567 28,593 28,683
Discounted cost of water million
Cost 643.3 438.3 439.1 441.6 11,330 11,339 11,369
production & treatment 2015 US$
million
Emissions CO2e 3.3 5.92 5.93 5.97 94.86 94.95 95.25
tonnes

48 | P a g e
44
 Reference scenarios
tied to the responsibilities of Water Resources Council,
as outlined below:
Key results for the three Reference scenarios
are summarized in Table 3-4. Municipal
●● Priority-setting:
water Formulation
supply in Bahrain of the overall is associated water with
resources policies
relativelyand
Reference highstrategies
scenarios for theeconomic,
costs (financial, country, and
including setting up
environmental), of appropriate
and institutional
are Reference
projected scenarios to nearly
Key results for the three
double
and legislative by 2035
frameworks; under
are summarized in Table 3-4. Municipal current policies and
management approach.
water supply in Bahrain is associated with Water-related CO 2e
emissions
●● Management:relatively
Coordination show
high costsofa (financial,
similar
government trend, increasing
water
economic, and
from 3.3
policies andenvironmental), million
ensuring integration and are projected to nearly6
tonnes of in
these2015 to
policies; nearly
and million by
double tonnes
2035inunder all Reference
current scenarios.
policies and
management approach. Water-related CO2e Figure 3-26: Cumulative impacts of climate change
Impacts of climate change
●● Monitoring: emissions
Follow up the show a similar trend,
implementation increasing relative to the Reference scenario
of water
policies and Figure
from plans3.33-26
million
and shows up cumulative
set tonnes in 2015for
priorities impacts
to nearly of
the 6
climate
million change
tonnes in over
all 2015-2035
Reference for
scenarios. ●● ClimateRCP8.5.
total change As willwith
increase desalinated
the other impactswater
of
implementation of the developed strategies and
demand, thus
climate aggravating
change on environmental
the municipal impacts
water
programs. municipal water use, wastewater
Impacts of climate change brine discharge, and Figure
generation/treatment, on the Arabian
3-26: Cumulative
system, Gulf.
these Theimpacts
impacts
cost need
of climatefor desalinated
arechange
negligible
desalinated water production. Key climate relative to
water when the Reference
will increase
compared scenario
discharges
to cumulative to water
surrounding
costs.
Figurereform
Such institutional 3-26 shows
will have cumulative
a key role impactsin of
change impacts include: Gulf waters of between 26 Mm 3
and 116 Mm3
addressing theclimate
water change over 2015-2035
sector challenges in Bahrain, for total RCP8.5. As with the other impacts of
Impacts
of brine of reduced
under RCP4.5per capita
andthe demand policy
RCP8.5, respectively,
and lead to themunicipal
While climate
§formulation ofwater change
a clear use,will lead
comprehensive, wastewater
to an climate change on municipal water
generation/treatment, brine increasing
Figure the
3-27salinity and
summarizes temperature
key results
system, these cost impacts are negligible footprints
for the
integrated, national additional 6.9 andand
water policy 30.9 Mmdischarge,
strategy.
3
ofThis is and
cumulative
desalinated
water usewaterunder production.
RCP4.5 Key
and climate
RCP8.5, of municipal
reduced water supply
per capitatodemand
when compared significantly;
cumulative Policy
waterscenario,
costs.
understood as an indispensable first step forward in the
change
long intricate path to impacts
respectively,
sustainable include:
this impact is negligible when
water management compared to the Reference scenario, both
compared ● ● The Impacts
impact of reduced
of per
under RCP8.5 conditions.
climate capita demand
change on policy
water-related
under conditions § While acutetowater
of climate cumulative
change scarcity,
will lead water
socio-to use, an CO e emissions and electricity use show similar
economic growth, reaching
additional
and climate0.4% under
6.9 change.
and 30.9RCP8.5;
Mmrest
The 3
ofofcumulative
this 2Figure 3-27 summarizes key results for the
trends. Under
reduced per RCP8.5,
capita demandCumulative additional
Policy scenario,
section provides § water
a briefuse
Climate underwill
change
summary ofRCP4.5
theincrease anddesalinated
vulnerability RCP8.5,
respectively, this impactthus is negligible when CO e emissions reach about 0.4
2compared to the Reference scenario, both
million tonnes
assessment. water demand, aggravating
compared
environmental to impacts
cumulative on the waterArabian use, whileunder an additional 593 GWh of natural gas-fired
RCP8.5 conditions.
electricity is required over the period; and
Reference scenarios reaching
Gulf. The 0.4%need under RCP8.5; water will
for desalinated
Key results for increase
the three
§ Climate discharges
changeReferencewill toincrease
surrounding
scenarios are Gulf
desalinated
summarized in water waters
Table 3-4. of between 26
Municipalthus
demand, Mm 3
and
water supply 116 Mm3 of
aggravating
brine under
environmental
in Bahrain is associated with impacts RCP4.5 on
relatively and
high thecosts RCP8.5,
Arabian
respectively,
Gulf. The increasing the salinity and
(financial, economic, and need for desalinated
environmental), andwater are will
temperature
increase footprints of
discharges municipal water
projected to nearly double by 2035tounder surroundingcurrent Gulf
supply
waters significantly;
of between 26 Mm 3
and 116 Mm3 of
policies and management approach. Water-related
CO2e emissions§ brineThe impact
show underoftrend,
a similar RCP4.5
climate change
increasing and from onRCP8.5,
water-
3.3 million tonnes in 2015 to2 nearly 6 million tonnes in and
respectively,
related CO e increasing
emissions the
and salinity
electricity use
temperature footprints
show similar trends. Under RCP8.5,
all Reference scenarios. of municipal water
supply
Cumulative significantly;
additional CO2e emissions
reach
§ The
Impacts of climate about
changeimpact of climate0.4 millionchange tonnesonwhile an
water-
additional
related CO2e593 emissions GWh ofelectricity fossil-fired
Figure 3-26 shows cumulative impactsand of climate use
electricity
show similar is required over the period; and
change over 2015-2035 for total trends.
municipalUnder water use, RCP8.5,
§ Cumulative
In absolute terms,
wastewater generation/treatment, additional
thebrine
above CO 2e emissions
impacts
discharge, would
reach
and desalinated wateralso come about 0.4 million
at a significant
production. Key climate tonnes
present while
value cost
change an
impacts include:additional
to the Bahraini 593 economy,
GWh oftotaling fossil-fired
about
electricity
US$ 8.7 is cumulative
required overdiscounted the period; and costs Figure 3-27: Top: Annual impacts of the per capita
●● While climate § In(2015$)
changeunder
absolute terms,
will RCP4.5
leadthetoabove an and impacts
additionalUS$would 37.9 water demand reduction policy on municipal water
million cumulative discounted costs under
value cost demand; Bottom: Cumulative impacts of the per capita
6.9 and 30.9also Mmcome3 at a significant
of cumulative water present
use under water demand reduction policy
RCP4.5 andtoRCP8.5, the Bahraini
respectively,economy, totaling isabout
this impact
negligible when US$ compared
8.7 cumulative to cumulative discounted water costs Figure 3-27: Top: Annual impacts of the per49capita |Page
use, reaching(2015$)0.4% under under RCP8.5; RCP4.5 and US$ 37.9 water demand reduction policy on municipal water
million cumulative discounted costs under demand; Bottom: Cumulative impacts of the per capita
water demand reduction policy
49 | P a g e
45
●● In absolute terms, the above impacts would are about 13% lower than Reference scenario levels.
also come at a significant present value cost to
the Bahraini economy, totaling about US$ 8.7 In addition, reducing per capita water demand will lead
cumulative discounted costs (2015$) under RCP4.5 to a cumulative reduction of 18 TWh of natural gas-
and US$ 37.9 Themilliontop cumulative
figure shows discounted costs waterfired electricity,
annual Impacts ofwhich would avoid 12 million tonnes
both policies
under RCP8.5. As with the other
consumption with and without the impacts of of CO e. These benefits come at a significant present
climate change on the efficiency
municipal water
2
Figure 3-29 summarizes key results for the
economic, and system,
conservationvalue cost savings to the economy, totaling about
these cost measures
impacts aretonegligible whencapita
compared Integrated Policy scenario, compared to the
reduce per municipalUS$ 1.2Reference
billion.
scenario, both under RCP8.5
to cumulativewaterwater
consumption.
costs. By 2035, total municipal
conditions. The integrated Policy combines
water consumption with the policy is aboutImpacts ofboth both policies
the per capita water reduction and
33%
Impacts of reduced less than
per capita demand thepolicy
Reference scenario andFigure 3-29 summarizes key results
leakage mitigation policiesforinto
the Integrated
a single
about 23% key
Figure 3-27 summarizes above 2015for
results levels.
the reduced Policy scenario,
integrated compared
scenario to thatthe Reference
accounts scenario,
for overlaps
per capita demand Policy scenario,
The bottom figure showscompared to the levelsboth under
cumulative andRCP8.5
synergiesconditions.
between the The integrated Policy
policies.
Reference scenario, both under RCP8.5 conditions.
for total municipal water use, wastewater combines both the per capita water reduction and
The top figure shows annual water
generation/treatment, brine discharge, andleakage consumption mitigation policies into a single integrated
for each integrated policy, with
The top figure desalinated
shows annual waterwater production.
consumption The scenario that accounts for overlaps and synergies
and without the measures to reduce per
with and without cumulative reduction ofefficiency
the economic, 5.1 BCM and of brinebetween capita
the policies.
water demand and leakage in the
discharge limits the salinity
conservation measures to reduce per capita municipal and temperature municipal water distribution system. Total
footprints
water consumption. on surrounding
By 2035, total municipalGulf waterwatersThe top municipal
figure shows waterannual water consumption
consumption in 2035 for is
significantly. Policy scenario
consumption with the policy is about 33% less than levels are about each integrated policy, with and without
about 4% less than 2015 levels, and about the measures
the Reference 18% lowerand
scenario thanabout
Reference
23% scenario
above 2015 levels. to reduce47% per lower
capita than
waterwhat
demand and leakage
it otherwise wouldin the
be
levels. In addition, reducing per capita watermunicipal in water
2035. distribution system. Total municipal
demand will lead to a cumulative reduction ofwater consumption in 2035 is about 4% less than 2015
The bottom figure shows cumulative levels
The bottom figure26 TWh showsofcumulative
fossil-firedlevels
electricity,
for totalwhichlevels, andfor about
total lower
47% water thanuse, what itwastewater
otherwise
would avoid 17 million tonnes of CO e.
municipal water use, wastewater generation/treatment, 2 would begeneration/treatment, in 2035. brine discharge, and
brine discharge,These benefits come
and desalinated wateratproduction.
a significant Thepresent desalinated water production. The Integrated
value cost
cumulative reduction savings
of 5.1 BCMtoofthe economy,
brine dischargetotalingThe bottom
Policyfigure shows
scenario cumulative
levels are about levels
27%forlower
total
about US$ 1.7 billion.
limits the salinity and temperature footprints on water use,
thanwastewater generation/treatment,
Reference scenario levels. brine
surrounding Gulf waters significantly. Policy scenario discharge, and desalinated water production. The
Impacts of leakage mitigation policy In addition, combining both policies will lead
levels are about 18% lower than Reference scenario Integrated
to Policy scenario reduction
a cumulative levels are about
of 4027% TWh lower
of
levels. Figure 3-28 summarizes key results for the
leakage mitigation Policy scenario, compared
to theperReference
In addition, reducing capita waterscenario,
demand will both
leadunder
to a cumulative reduction of 26 TWh of natural gas-shows
RCP8.5 conditions. The top figure
annual water consumption with and without
fired electricity, which would avoid 17 million tonnes
the measures to reduce leakage in the
of CO2e. These benefits come at a significant present
municipal water distribution system. While
value cost savings to the economy,
total municipal totaling about
water consumption in 2035 is
US$ 1.7 billion.about 42% higher than 2015 levels,
consumption is 22% lower than what it
Impacts of leakage mitigation would
otherwise policy be in 2035. The bottom
Figure 3-28 summarizes key results for
figure shows cumulative thefor
levels leakage
total water
mitigation Policy
use,scenario, compared
wastewater to the Reference brine
generation/treatment,
scenario, bothdischarge, and desalinated
under RCP8.5 water production.
conditions. The
top figure showsPolicyannual
scenario levels
water are about 13%
consumption withlower
and without the thanmeasures
Reference to scenario levels. in the
reduce leakage
municipal water In distribution system. per
addition, reducing While total water
capita
municipal water consumption
demand will lead in
to 2035 is aboutreduction
a cumulative 42% of
higher than 2015 levels, of
18 TWh consumption
fossil-firediselectricity,
22% lowerwhich
would avoid
than what it otherwise would 12 be inmillion
2035. tonnes
The bottom of CO2e.
These benefits
figure shows cumulative come
levels for attotal
a significant
water use, present
value cost savings brine
wastewater generation/treatment, to thedischarge,
economy,and totaling Figure 3-28: Top: Annual impacts of the leakage
about
desalinated water US$ 1.2 billion.
production. Policy scenario levels reduction policy on municipal water demand; Bottom:
Cumulative impacts of the leakage reduction policy
50 | P a g e
46
than Referencefossil-fired
scenario electricity,
levels. which would avoid 26
million tonnes of CO2e. These benefits come
In addition, combining both present
at a significant policiesvaluewill lead to a to
cost savings
cumulative reduction of 40 TWh
the economy, of about
totaling naturalUS$gas-fired
2.6 billion.
electricity, which would avoid 26 million tonnes of
3.3.4. Adaptation
CO2e. These benefits come at a implications
significant present
value cost savings to the water
The current economy, totaling
situation aboutis not
in Bahrain
US$ 2.6 billion.sustainable. Water resource management
challenges will only deepen under climate
change. Issues
3.3.4. Adaptation such as groundwater
implications
The current depletion/salinization,
water situation in Bahrain rapidly is increasing
not
municipal water demand, lagging wastewater
sustainable. Water resource management challenges
treatment/reuse plans will intensify financial,
will only deepen under climate
economic, change. Issues
environmental such burdens
and social as
groundwater depletion/salinization,
in the absence of rapidly increasing
strategic adaptation
municipal water demand,
interventions. lagging wastewater
treatment/reuse plans will intensify financial,
The results and
economic, environmental of the vulnerability
social burdens inassessment
the
demonstrate that the main water
absence of strategic adaptation interventions.
management and planning challenge facing
The results of the vulnerability assessment
Bahrain is how to effectively balance water
demonstrate that the main
availability andwater
water management and in
use in the long-term
planning challenge Figure 3-29: Top: Annual impacts of the integrated
the facing
face ofBahrain is how to effectively
the escalating demands and policies on municipal water demand; Bottom:
balance water climate
availability and water use in the
change. Doing so while imposing long- the
Cumulative impacts of the integrated policies
term in the faceleast
of the escalating demands and climate
economic and environmental costs and
change. Doingwithout
so while imposing the least socio-economic
endangering economic ●● needed
Urgent to explore
action needed: and for
It is imperative quantify these
the Kingdom
and environmental costs and without endangering
development remains the central adaptation benefits.to formulate a clear, comprehensive,
of Bahrain
socio-economicchallenge.
development remains the central and integrated
Several key water resources policy and
recommendations for strategy
future
adaptation challenge.
Hence, the point of departure for responding in order to manage its water resources efficiently
adaptation planning in Bahrain are outlined
the results of the vulnerability assessment is and obtain a considerable
in the bullets below. degree of sustainability
Hence, the point of need
the departure for responding
to focus the results
on the demand side of under conditions of climate change. Institutional
§ Urgent action needed: It is imperative for the
of the vulnerability assessment is the
water resource management. This need to focus
contrasts reforms that build upon the reactivation of the
Kingdom of Bahrain to formulate a clear,
on the demandsignificantly
side of water withresource management.
the current policy focus National Water Resources
comprehensive, andCouncil in 2016
integrated are
water
This contrastsemphasizing
significantly supply-side
with the current policy The
management. essential.
resources policy and strategy in order to
two adaptation
focus emphasizing supply-sidepolicies (i.e., per
management. Thecapita
two water manage its water resources efficiently and
reductions
adaptation policies (i.e., perand leakage
capita water reductions)
reductions and will not●●
Protect obtain
groundwatera resources: Further degree
considerable deterioration
of
only mitigate
leakage reductions) the impacts
will not only mitigateof theclimate
impactschange
of groundwater
sustainabilityresources should beofaddressed
under conditions climate
of climate change but build an adaptive management in
but build an adaptive management capacityby establishing
change. aInstitutional
cooperation reforms
mechanism thatbetween
build
Bahrain.Indeed,
capacity in Bahrain. Indeed,every
every cubic
cubic meter
meter ofof water
Bahrainuponand the
Saudi reactivation
Arabia in of the the National
development
water saved in the municipal sector results in energy, in
saved in the municipal sector results Water Resources
and management Council ingroundwater
of transboundary 2016 are
economic and energy,
environmentaleconomic
benefits.and environmental essential.
resources, including groundwater artificial
benefits.
recharge/storage
§ Protect enhancement
groundwater using Further
resources: surplus
Moreover, waterMoreover,
demand water
sidedemand side management
management will tertiarydeterioration
treated wastewater.
of groundwater resources
willnot
lead to benefits leadaddressed
to benefits not vulnerability
in the addressed in the should be addressed by establishing a
vulnerability
assessment. These include assessment.
reducing air These include●● Enhancecooperation
pollution, mechanism
modeling work: between Bahrain
Two improvements in the
reducing burdens
reducing environmental air pollution,
on human health, reducing modeling and Saudi Arabiaarein the
approach development First,
recommended. and
and protecting environmental
marine ecosystem burdens onSubsequent
services. human health, management
a stochastic methodology of should transboundary
be applied
and protecting
vulnerability assessments marine toecosystem
are needed explore andservices. groundwater resources, including
Subsequent vulnerability assessments are in future modeling work to better understand
quantify these benefits. groundwater artificial recharge/storage
uncertainty. The deterministic modeling approach
used in the current study is limited in its ability to
Several key recommendations for future adaptation adequately represent the level of uncertainty in the
planning in Bahrain are outlined in the bullets below 51 | P a g e
results. Second, previous groundwater modeling
that addressed sea level rise impacts on the aquifer

47
 should be updated and integrated within the Abou Seedo, K. A., Abido, M. S., Salih, A., &
WEAP model. This will enable dynamic modeling Abahussain, A., 2017. Structure and Composition
of the groundwater system with non-conventional of Mangrove Associations in Tubli Bay of Bahrain
water sources and their interaction. as Affected by Municipal Wastewater Discharge and
Anthropogenic Sedimentation.
●● Expand water sector coverage: The vulnerability
assessment focused on the municipal sector, with Al Masri, N. A., 2009. Identification of Current and
limited accounting of water use in the agricultural Future Water Issues in the Kingdom of Bahrain.
and industrial sectors. This was necessary due Unpublished Report, Water Research Project,
to absence of data. While water use in these Electricity and Water Authority (EWA) and Bahrain
two sectors is significantly less than that of the Center for Studies and Research (BCSR), Kingdom of
municipal sector, with limited interaction with Bahrain (in Arabic).
the rest of the water resource system, there are
as yet unexplored opportunities for efficiency and Aljenaid, S. Khadem, G., and Abido, M., 2018.
conservation. Assessing Coastal Vulnerability of Bahrain Islands to
Sea Level Rise, Arabian Gulf University.
3.4. List of References Al-Maslamani, I., Walton, M., Kennedy, H., Al-
Ababa, I. and Alhaj, M., 2001. The individual and Mohannadi, M., Le Vay, L., 2013. Are Mangroves in
societal benefits of saving water. Proceedings of the Arid Environments Isolated Systems? Life-History
Fifth Gulf Water Conference, Doha, Water Science Evidence of Dietary Contribution from Inwelling
and Technology Association, Bahrain. in a Mangrove-Resident Shrimp Species. Estuarine,
Coastal and Shelf Science, 124, 56-63.
Abido, M., and Al-Jeneid, S., 2018. Mangroves
Vulnerability to Climate Change: Bahrain Case Study, Al-Maslamani, I., Walton, M., Kennedy, H., Al-
Arabian Gulf University. Mohannadi, M., Le Vay, L., 2013. Are Mangroves in
Arid Environments Isolated Systems? Life-History
Abido, M.S. Abahussain, A.A. & Abdel-Munsif, H., Evidence of Dietary Contribution from Inwelling
2011. Status and Composition of Mangrove Plant in a Mangrove-Resident Shrimp Species. Estuarine,
Community in Tubli Bay of Bahrain during the Years Coastal and Shelf Science, 124, 56-63.
2005 and 2010. Arabian Gulf Journal for Scientific
Research, 29(1):100-111. Alothman, A., Bos, M., Fernandes, R., 2017. An
Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of
Abido, M.S., & Mohammad, S.A., 2001. The the Arabian Gulf, Geophysical Research Abstracts,
Mangrove Ecosystem in Tubli Bay of Bahrain: Vol. 19, EGU2017-5474, 2017
Opportunities for Survival. In: Proceeding of the 2nd
International Symposium and Workshop on Arid Zone Al-Rumaikhani, Y., 2001. An investigation of water
Environments: Research and Management Options saving devices: performance and saving studies.
for Mangrove and Salt Marsh Ecosystem (eds.) Salim Proceedings of the Fifth Gulf Water Conference,
Javed and Amrita G. de Soyza, ERWDA, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Water Science and Technology Association,
UAE.IPCC, 2000. Good Practice Guidance and Bahrain.
Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories. Bamber, J.L., Layberry, R., and Gogenini, S., 2001. A
new ice thickness and bed data set for the Greenland
Abido, M.S., & Mohammad, S.A., 2001. The Ice Sheet 1: Measurement, data reduction, and errors,
Mangrove Ecosystem in Tubli Bay of Bahrain: Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 33,773-33,780.
Opportunities for Survival. In: Proceeding of the 2nd Barbier, E., Sally D. Hacker, Chris Kennedy, Evamaria
International Symposium and Workshop on Arid Zone W. Koch, Adrian C. Stier, and Brian R. Silliman, 2011.
Environments: Research and Management Options The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services.
for Mangrove and Salt Marsh Ecosystem (eds.) Salim Ecological Monographs 81:169–193.
Javed and Amrita G. de Soyza, ERWDA, Abu Dhabi,
UAE.

48
Bennett, E.L. & Reynolds, C.J., 1993. The Value NY, USA.
of Mangrove Area in Sarawak. Biodiversity &
Conservation, 3 (4), 359-375. Conservation International (CI), 2008. Economic
Values of Coral Reefs, Mangroves, and Conservation
Broadhead, J.S., 2011. "Reality check on the potential International, 2008. Economic Values of Coral Reefs,
to generate income from mangroves through carbon Mangroves, and Seagrasses: A Global Compilation.
credit sales and payments for environmental services". Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation
Regional Fisheries Livelihoods Programme for South International.
and Southeast Asia (GCP/RAS/237/SPA) Field
Project Document 2011/REG/2. Costanza, R., Ralph d’Arge, Rudolf de Groot, Stephen
Farber, Monica Grasso, Bruce Hannon, Karin
Broadhead, J.S., 2011. Reality check on the potential Limburg, Shahid Naeem, Robert V. O’Neill, Jose
to generate income from mangroves through carbon Paruelo, Robert G. Raskin, Paul Sutton & Marjan van
credit sales and payments for environmental services. den Belt, 1997. "The value of the world’s ecosystem
Regional Fisheries Livelihoods Programme for South services and natural capital", Nature, Volume 387, pp.
and Southeast Asia (GCP/RAS/237/SPA) Field 253-260.
Project Document 2011/REG/2.
Costanza, R., Ralph d’Arge, Rudolf de Groot, Stephen
Cazenave, A., Dieng, H., Meyssignac, B., von Farber, Monica Grasso, Bruce Hannon, Karin
Schuckmann, K., Decharme, B., and Berthier, E., 2014. Limburg, Shahid Naeem, Robert V. O’Neill, Jose
The rate of sea-level rise, Nature Climate Change, 4, Paruelo, Robert G. Raskin, Paul Sutton & Marjan van
358–361. den Belt, 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem
services and natural capital, Nature, Volume 387, pp.
Church, J. and Gregory, J., 2001. Changes in Sea 253-260.
Level. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis,
Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and de Groot, R., Luke Brander, Sander van der Ploeg,
New York, NY, USA. Robert Costanza, Florence Bernard, Leon Braat, Mike
Christie, Neville Crossman, Andrea Ghermandi, Lars
Church, J.A., Clark, P.U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J.M., Hein, Salman Hussain, Pushpam Kumar, Alistair
Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M.A., Milne, McVittie, Rosimeiry Portela, Luis C. Rodriguez,
G.A., Nerem, R.S., Nunn, P.D., Payne, A.J., Pfeffer, Patrick ten Brink, Pieter van Beukering, 2012. Global
W.T., Stammer, D., & Unnikrishnan, A.S., 2013. Sea estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services
Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical in monetary units, Ecosystem Services, 1 50–61
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental El-Kholei, A., 2018. Background Paper: Economic
Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Valuation of Mangrove Forest, Kingdom of Bahrain,
Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Arabian Gulf University, March.
Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Ellison, J. and Zhou, I., 2012. Vulnerability to climate
New York, NY, USA.IPCC. change of mangroves: assessment from Cameroon,
Central Africa. Biology, 1(3), 617-38. doi:10.3390/
Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. biology1030617
Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne,
R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. FAO, 2005. Global forest resources assessment 2005
Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level thematic study on mangroves Bahrain country profile
Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science draft. June 2005. http://www.fao.org/forestry/9180-
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth 025abb508abb9ae04a45e41c6a5e49c39.pdf
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, Faraco, L., Andriguetto-Filho, J., and Lana, P., 2010.
M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, A methodology for assessing the vulnerability of
V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University mangroves and fisherfolk to climate change, Pan-
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, American Journal of Aquatic Sciences, 5(2): 205-223

49
Field, C. D., 1995. Impact of expected climate change NY, USA
on mangroves. Hydrobiologia, 295(1–3), 75–81.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00029113 Ministry of Works (MEW), 2017. Approved Zoning
Maps, The General Directorate of Urban Planning.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Available at: https://www.mun.gov.bh/ppd/indexen.
Nations (FAO), 2005. Global Forest Resources jsp.
Assessment 2005: Thematic Study On Mangroves,
Bahrain Country Profile, Draft, Forestry Department, Naser, H., 2014. Marine Ecosystem Diversity
June. in the Arabian Gulf: Threats and Conservation.
Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://dx.doi.
GCPMREW, 2005, Bahrain Initial National org/10.5772/57425.
Communications under the UNFCCC.
Naser, H., 2016. Management of Marine Protected
General Commission for the Protection of Marine. Zones – Case Study of Bahrain, Arabian Gulf.
Resources, Environment & Wildlife (GCPMREW), 10.5772/62132.
2005. Bahrain’s Initial Communications for the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), (2014)
Volume I: Main Summary Report. http://nsidc.org

Gilman, E., Ellison, J., Duke, N., Field, C., 2008. Nguyen, H. T., Stanton, D. E., Schmitz, N., Farquhar,
Threats to mangroves from climate change and G. D., & Ball, M. C., 2015. Growth responses of the
adaptation options: A review, Aquatic Botany, Volume mangrove Avicennia marina to salinity: Development
89, Issue 2, pages 237-250. and function of shoot hydraulic systems require
saline conditions. Annals of Botany, 115(3), 397–407.
IPCC, 2014, AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu257
2014
Noor, T., Batool, N., Mazhar, R., & Ilyas, N., 2015.
IPCCa, 1996. Effects of siltation, temperature and salinity on
Mangrove plants introduction. European Academic
Kathiresan, K., 2001. Ecology and Environment of Research, II(11), 14172–14179.
Mangrove Ecosystems. Advances in Marine Biology,
40, 81–251. Ong, J.E. & Gong, W.K., 2013. Structure, Function
and Management of Mangrove Ecosystems. ISME
Kingdom of Bahrain (KoB), 2009. Prime Ministerial Mangrove Educational Book Series No. 2. International
Edict No. 28 – Zoning regulations for construction; Society for Mangrove Ecosystems (ISME), Okinawa,
Article 8, Section 2. Japan, and International Tropical Timber Organization
(ITTO), Yokohama, Japan.
Lambert, A., 2003. Assessing non-revenue water and
its components: A practical approach. Water 21 Mag. PCPMREW, 2013, Bahrain Second National
Int. Water Assoc. vol. 5: 50–51. Communications under the UNFCCC.

Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, Public Commission for the Protection of Marine
A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Resources, Environment and Wildlife, 2006. Bahrain
Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, First National Report to the Convention on Biological
A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Diversity, General Directorate for Environment and
Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Wildlife Protection.
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Public Commission for the Protection of Marine
Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Resources, Environment and Wildlife (PCPMREW),
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. 2013. Bahrain’s Second National Communication.
Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Under the United Nations Framework Convention
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, on Climate Change.

50
Ramsar, 1997. BH921map.pdf, available at https:// Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
rsis.ramsar.org/ris/921 Warrick, R., Provost, C., Meier, M., Oerlemans, J.,
and Woodworth, R., 1996. Changes in Sea Level, In:
Reef, R., Winter, K., Morales, J., Adame, M.F., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change,
Reef, D.L., & Lovelock, C.E., 2015. The effect of Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on the New York, NY, USA.
performance of the mangrove Avicennia germinans
over a range of salinities. Physiol Plant., 154(3):358-68. Wilson, R., 2017. Impacts of climate change on
doi: 10.1111/ppl.12289. mangrove ecosystems in the coastal and marine
environments of Caribbean small island developing
Sayed, O. H., 1995. Effects of the expected sea level states (SIDS). Science Review, 2017, 60-82
rise on Avicennia marina L: A case study in Qatar.
Qatar University Science Journal, 15(1), 91–94. Windham-Myers, L. and Troxler, T. (eds), 2018. A Blue
Carbon Primer: The State of Coastal Westland Carbon
Seagrasses: A Global Compilation. Center for Applied Science, Practice and Policy, Taylor and Francis Group.
Biodiversity Science, Conservation International,
Arlington, VA, USA Windham-Myers, L., Crooks, S., and Troxler, T., 2018.
A Blue Carbon Primer: The State of Coastal Wetland
Semesi, A.K., 1998. Mangrove Management and Carbon Science, Practice and Policy, 1st Edition, CRC
Utilization in Eastern Africa. Ambio, 27, 620-626. Press.
Survey and Land Registration Bureau-Bahrain (SLRB),
2017: Communication through SCE Bahrain for the Zubari, W., Alaradi, M., and AlShaabani, A., 2018.
Third National Communications coastal zones report: Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to
https://www.slrb.gov.bh/). Climate Change in the Kingdom of Bahrain, Climate
Change Third Communiqué, Kingdom of Bahrain.
Trzaska, S., de Sherbinin, A., Kim-Blanco, P., Mara, V., Zubari, W.K., 2018, Water Sector Assessment Report.
Schnarr, E., Jaiteh, M., and Mondal, P., 2018. Climate Unpublished. Water Resources Council, Kingdom of
Change Vulnerability Assessment in Mangrove regions Bahrain.
of Sierra Leone: Long Report.
Zubari, W.K., 2004. Management and sustainable of
UNDESA, 2017. Probabilistic Population Projections groundwater resources in Bahrain. The joint Kingdom
based on the World Population Prospects: The 2017 of Bahrain-Japan Symposium, Manama, Kingdom of
Revision. Bahrain.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Zubari, W.K., Khater, A.R., Al-Noaimi, M.A., and
Affairs (UNDESA), 2017. World Population Prospects Al-Junaid, S.S., 1997. Spatial and Temporal Trends in
2017, available at https://population.un.org/wpp/ Groundwater Salinity in Bahrain. The Arabian Journal
Download/Probabilistic/Population/ for Science and Engineering, vol. 22 (1C): 81-94.

Warrick, R., and Oerlemans, J., , 1990. In: Scientific

Assessment of Climate Change, Cambridge University

51
 4. Greenhouse
Gas Mitigation

52 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation National Circumstances 01

4. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
In 2015, Bahrain submitted its Intended Nationally initiatives across various sectors to achieve a national
Determined Contribution (INDC) toward confronting target for energy savings. Implementation modalities,
the challenge of climate change. The INDC committed governance mechanisms, and monitoring protocols are
to a set of measures for reducing the future growth described in detail within the Plan. In all, 22 initiatives
of GHGs in the country. This chapter presents an have been established that together will contribute to
overview of how these commitments have been a reduction in energy use of 6% by 2025 relative to
codified into concrete action plans for increasing average energy use over the period 2009-2013. On
energy efficiency across the economy as well as a primary energy equivalent basis, this amounts to
promoting an increased role for renewable energy. savings of 5,792 GWh (or 498 kTOE) by 2025.
Some of the major implications for greenhouse gas
mitigation are summarized in the sections below based
on a GHG mitigation analysis of these action plans
4.1.2. Renewable energy
The National Renewable Energy Action Plan
(AlSabbagh, 2019). (NREAP) complements NEEAP by identifying
feasible renewable energy options for Bahrain,
4.1. Background establishing targets, and proposing actions to harness
As discussed in Chapter 1, Bahrain’s Economic Vision renewable energy opportunities (SEU, 2017b). It
2030, provides a long-term vision to reduce dependence represents concrete action to support the sustainable
on oil & gas, pursue economic diversification, and energy transition outlined in Economic Vision 2030.
promote environmental quality. Specifically, the The Plan was also prepared by the SEU and relied
vision calls for the development of sustainable extensively upon a similarly wide range of stakeholder
energy strategies that will lead to reductions in carbon groups. It has been officially endorsed through Cabinet
emissions. To operationalize this vision, as well as Resolution No 2392-1.
reflect commitments under the INDC, concrete action
plans have been established to increase the role of NREAP identifies specific policies and technologies
energy efficiency and renewable energy in the country. to create a renewable energy market and achieve a
national target for renewable electricity generation. The
plan addresses ways to foster an enabling environment
4.1.1. Energy efficiency to attract future investment in renewables, including
The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan
strategies to overcome regulatory and market barriers.
(NEEAP) lays out a comprehensive set of initiatives
The plan also identifies a set of specific policies to
to increase energy efficiency potential in Bahrain. The
incentivize increasing the share of renewable energy
Plan was prepared by the Sustainable Energy Unit
throughout the economy.
which has recently been transformed by Royal Decree
22/2019 which established the Sustainable Energy
In all, 3 policies have been established that together
Center (SEC). The SEC is an independent centre,
will contribute to a national renewable energy target
which reports directly to Cabinet via the Minister of
of 5% of peak capacity by 2025 and 10% by 2035,
Electricity and Water Affairs. The SEC replaces the
relative to the projected peak capacities in those years.
previous Sustainable Energy Unit (SEU) which had
On an electric generation basis, this amounts to 478
been established in 2014. The NEEAP was prepared in
GWh and 1,456 GWh of renewable electricity by 2025
consultation with a wide range of stakeholder groups,
and 2035, respectively.
including the National Oil and Gas Authority; all line
ministries, the Supreme Council for the Environment;
the Bahrain Defense Force; large industry groups; and 4.2. Approach
academia (SEU, 2017a). It has been officially endorsed Considered individually or together, the policies and
through Cabinet Resolution No 2392-1. measures established under the NEEAP and NREAP
will lead to significant levels of annual avoided
NEEAP identifies specific programs and new CO2e emissions. The scope of the GHG mitigation

53
 NEEAP and NREAP will lead to significant 2006-2015 in CO2e emissions of less than
levels of annual avoided CO2e emissions. The 2%). As a result, it was considered a valid
scope of on the these
GHGplans mitigation assessment model for simulating the impact on future
assessment focused due to the summary GHGof emissions
key assumptions from energyis provided in Table
efficiency
focused on these plans due to the
prominence of energy in the GHG emission profile of 4-1. Three mitigation
and renewable energy scenarios were developed.
initiatives.
prominence of energy in the GHG emission
Bahrain. As discussed
profile ofearlier
Bahrain.in Chapter 2, the energy
As discussed earlier in The energy efficiency scenario considered NEEAP
 Scenario construction: The Business-As-Usual
sector accounts for nearly 70% of all GHGs
Chapter 2, the energy sector accounts for emitted initiatives
(BAU)only; scenariothe assumed
renewablenoenergy major policy scenario
in Bahrain, much
nearlyof70%
which of isallassociated
GHGs emittedwith the very
in Bahrain, considered
changesNREAP in the renewable
future and capacity
incorporatedadditions
activities andmuch
sectors targeted by the Plans.
of which is associated with the very only; and the combined scenario
currently planned capacity additions and considered both
activities and sectors targeted by the Plans. energy efficiency
industrial initiativesincreases.
production and renewableA summary energy
Hence, the goal of the GHG mitigation assessment capacity of keyadditions
assumptions from the Plans. in Table 4-
is provided
Hence, the goal of the GHG mitigation
was to codify the energy efficiency and renewable
assessment was to codify the energy 1. Three mitigation scenarios were
energy targets, of bothand
efficiency Plans within energy
renewable targets, of ●● Emissions
an integrated developed.
accounting:The Consistent
energy efficiency with the scenarioGHG
energy modeling framework. The outputs
both Plans within an integrated energy of the considered
inventory, IPCC NEEAP
default initiatives
values were only; used thefor
assessment provide
modelinga framework.
basis to understand
The outputs details
of the emission renewable
factors, energy
carbon content, scenarioandconsiderednet heating
regarding annual CO2e emission
assessment provide reductions,
a basis to sectoral
understand NREAP renewable capacity
value. Calculations of annual CO2e emissions additions only;
impacts, synergies across
details policies and
regarding otherCO
annual details. The and the combined
under the scenarios were carried out using 100-scenario considered
2e emission
analytical framework provides
reductions, sectoral a useful basis
impacts, to analyze
synergies across year bothGWPs energy as recommended efficiency byinitiatives
the IPCC and in its
policies and other details. The analytical
additional policies and measures going forward. Fourth renewable
Assessment energy capacity
Report. additions from
framework provides a useful basis to analyze the Plans.
The rest ofadditional policies
this section and measures
describes the overall going Table 4–1: Major assumptions underlying the BAU
methodologyforward.
for the assessment, including the scenario in the Bahrain LEAP model
analytical framework
The restpolicies analyzed,
of this section energy savings
describes the overall
Parameter Assumption
 Average annual
Electricity
modeled, andmethodology
renewable energy
for the capacity
assessment,additions.
including demand
 Only the 2016 electricity tariff electricity production
increases are reflected grows at 2.3%/yr;
the analytical framework policies analyzed, growth
2015-2030
energy savings modeled, and renewable Levelized cost  8.17 - Generation
4.2.1. Analytical framework
energy capacity additions.
of electricity
(US
 0.87 - Transmission
 0.97 - Distribution
The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) cents/kWh)  10.02 - Total
modeling tool4.2.1.
was used to estimate
Analytical future annual CO2e
framework Fuel use  Alba natural gas use of 14.8
 BAPCO refined oil
production increases
emission reductions associated with implementation growth Mm3/d from 2020-2030 to 360,000 barrels/
The Long-range
of the NEEAP and NREAP. A 4-step process wasEnergy Alternatives Capacity  350 MW AlDur (2019)
day; 2021-2030

Planningbelow:
followed, as outlined (LEAP) modeling tool was used to additions  1,000 MW AlDur (2021)  5 MW solar/wind
estimate future annual CO2e emission (natural gas;  1,131 MW AlDur2 (2028)
cogeneration)  1,750 MW Abu Jarjour (2024)
power station (2019)

reductions associated with implementation  Sitra 125 MW (2024)

●● Model setup: An integrated representation of the Retirements
of the NEEAP and NREAP. A 4-step  Riffa 700 MW (2024)
Bahrain energy system was developed using
process was followed, as outlined below: LEAP. T&D losses  Losses of 9.8% assumed constant over 2015-2030

The Bahrain energy model represented all energy

demand sectors and current/planned energy 58 | P a g e
supply sources. A Base Year of 2015 was assumed, 4.2.2. Energy efficiency initiatives
A total of 22 energy efficiency initiatives across 5 key
with an End Year of 2030 to be consistent with
sectors are part of the NEEAP and were incorporated
the planning period in Economic Vision 2030.
into the GHG mitigation assessment. In addition,
several supporting measures that are cross-cutting in
●● Model validation: The Bahrain energy model
nature were analyzed. These are identified in Figure
was validated against the results of the GHG
4-1 (top) together with the projected energy savings
inventory for the period 2006-2015. The model
was able to reproduce the estimates from the by 2025 for each sector to meet the national target. To
inventory to reasonable accuracy (i.e., an average integrate the savings into the Bahrain energy model,
these levels were assumed to be constant over the
difference over 2006-2015 in CO2e emissions of
2026-2030 period. Figure 4-1 (bottom) shows total
less than 2%). As a result, it was considered a valid
primary energy savings for each sector over the period
model for simulating the impact on future GHG
2015-2030
emissions from energy efficiency and renewable
energy initiatives.
Two estimates of energy savings potential were
developed by the NEEAP process. Identified energy
●● Scenario construction: The Business-As-Usual (BAU)
savings correspond to the maximum amount of
scenario assumed no major policy changes in the
energy savings that is cost effective. Target energy
future and incorporated currently planned capacity
savings, as are shown in Figure 4-1, correspond to
additions and industrial production increases. A
the amount of energy savings achieved through the

54
 th the explicit part of the purchase decision through
values energy labeling. In September 2015the MEPS for
carbon household lamps were implemented, while MEPs
value. for small air conditioning were implemented in
issions 2016.
t using
by the ●● Building energy labeling: This initiative aims to reduce
port. energy consumption in buildings through making
energy performance of buildings explicit through
the use of building energy labels.
tiatives
EEAP ●● Green building certification: This initiative aims to
GHG promote the construction of more resource-
several efficient buildings by establishing a green building
ting in certification program.
fied in
ojected ●● District cooling: This initiative aims to revitalize and
ctor to expand the existing capacity of district cooling in
ate the Bahrain, by establishing a regulatory framework.
, these Figure 4-1: Top: Energy efficiency measures by sector
ver the considered in the GHG mitigation assessment; Bottom:
ottom) Figure 4-2 (top) summarizes projected target energy
Annual primary energy savings for all initiatives
or each savings over the 2015-2030 period for the residential
(adapted from SEU, 2017a)
and commercial sectors. By 2025, projected annual
actual implemented initiatives to meet the national savings total 3,009 GWh, or about 52% of the target.
otential There were 5 major initiatives that were
target. Each of the initiatives is briefly described in Cumulative energy savings total 32,655 GWh through
rocess. considered, as described in the bullets below.
the subsections below relative to target energy savings. 2030, with building energy efficiency codes and MEPS
to the  Building energy efficiency
Residential and commercial initiatives codes: This initiative & labeling providing 56% and 41% of the savings,
that is aims to reduce energy demand in buildings
as are respectively. Figure 4-2 (bottom) summarizes the
by and
Residential putting
commercialin place comprehensive
properties account for present value of the costs and benefits over the 2015-
to the mandatory energy efficiency specifications
hrough about 93% of Bahrain’s total building stock. Combined, 2030 period, showing cost savings for each measure.
for the construction of new buildings and
eet the the residential and commercial sectors consume about The present value of net savings for all residential and
renovation of existing buildings.
ives is 87% of annual electricity consumption, the majority commercial energy efficiency measures is US$ 554
below  Minimum
of which is devoted energyto performance
meet spacestandards and
cooling needs. million.
labelingare
These sectors forbuildings
lighting, air
projected to conditioning,
explicit
increasethroughappliances:
the in
substantially use of
This
the future initiative
to keep building
pace with implements
energy labels. minimum
socioeconomic growth.
energy performance
The housing sector, in standards
particular, is (MEPS)tofor
projected grow aims
 Green building certification: This initiative
household
at roughly 5.4% per and
year commercial
between lamps, small
perties and large to air promote the today
conditioning
and 2030.
construction
units, andof more
s total appliances. resource-efficient
It also makes buildingsenergy
by establishing
performance an explicit part of program.
a green building
ial and There were 5 major initiatives thatcertification
were considered, as
the
7% of describedpurchase
in the bullets
decision
District below.
throughThis
cooling: energy labeling.aims to
initiative
majority In September
revitalize and 2015the
expandMEPS for capacity
the existing
cooling ●● Building energy
household efficiency
oflamps codes: This initiative
were implemented,
district cooling in while aims to by
Bahrain,
ncrease reduce energy
MEPs for demand in buildings
small aira regulatory
establishing by
conditioning putting
were in
framework.
ce with placeimplemented
comprehensive mandatory energy efficiency
in 2016.
sector, Figure 4-2 (top) summarizes projected target
specifications for the construction of new
oughly  Buildingenergy
energy labeling:
savingsThis
over initiative aims to
the 2015-2030 period for
buildings and
reduce the renovation
energy of
consumption existing buildings.
in buildings
0. residential and commercial sectors. By
through2025,
making energyannual
projected performance of 3,009
savings total
●● Minimum energyGWh, or about 52% of the fortarget.
performance standards and labeling
lighting, air Cumulative
conditioning, energy
appliances: This
savings totalinitiative
32,655 GWh
implementsthrough minimum energy Figure 4-2: Top: Target residential & commercial
2030, with 59performance
building|energy
P a g eefficiency primary energy savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and
standards (MEPS)
codes and for MEPS
household and commercial
& labeling providing 56% benefits associated with target primary energy savings
lamps, smalland and41%largeofair
theconditioning units, andFigure
savings, respectively. in residential & commercial sectors
appliances. 4-2 (bottom)
It also makes summarizes the present
energy performance an value
of the costs and benefits over the 2015-2030 efficiency of lighting in all government
period, showing cost savings for each premises. 55
measure. The present value of net savings for
 Street Lighting Refurbishment: This initiative
 Industrial initiatives
Government initiatives
Bahrain’s government
Bahrain’ssector will play
industrial sectora strategic
contributes role over
in promoting energy40% toefficiency
GDP, and through
in 2014theemployed exercise over
of its purchasing 16% of the workforce (SEU, 2017a).The
power and leading by example. It is also
government sector consists
the largest
Industrial of governmental,
single energy consuming sector,
initiatives non-
commercial state bodies,accounting
typically the defensefor force,
about the41%police, of total
Bahrain’s
hospitals and otherenergyhealth industrial
use.facilities,
While many sector contributes
local municipalities,
industrial facilities over
40%
provide
schools and universities, to their
GDP,
as wellownand in 2014 through
aselectricity
housing employed
for whichon-site over
16%
the Ministry ofgeneration of the workforce
Housing isfacilities,
responsible. they still account also
(SEU, 2017a). It is for
the
over 10% of annual gridconsuming
largest single energy electricitysector, sales.
typically accounting
Thereinitiatives
was a single for aboutconsidered,
initiative 41% of total
There were 4 major that were considered, as as
energy
described use. While
below. many industrial facilities
described in theprovide
bullets their
below. own electricity through on-site
 Industry Program:
generation Thisthey
facilities, initiative
still aims
account to drive
for
●● Government over Buildings
a 1% Energy
10%improvement
of annual grid Management:
in electricity This
annual energy sales.
initiative aims
There to waspursue
consumption energy
a single efficiency
to initiative
reach on aenergy
aconsidered,
4% as
efficiency
continuousdescribed
basis in improvement by 2020. by
government
below. buildings
Figure 4-3: Top: Target governmental primary energy
establishingThe an Industry
energy management
Program system
initiative has for
a three-
government  Industry
buildings.Program: This initiative aims to drive savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits
fold
a 1% purpose:
improvementto coordinate in annual energy associated with target primary energy savings in
the energy
efficiency activities government sector
consumption to of reach the amajor 4% industry
energy
●● Government players Buildings
efficiencyand Lighting
large energy
improvement Replacement:
by 2020.This
consumers; to shareabout 41% of total energy use.savings
While many industrial
present
Figure 4-3: Top: value
Target of net
governmental for industrial
primary energy
initiative aims to improve the energy efficiency
best practice between the companies throughfacilities energy of provideefficiency
their own electricity through on-site
The Industry Program initiative has a three- savings, 2015-2030; measures
Bottom: Costs is US$
and 82 million.
benefits
lighting in workshops
all government and premises.
other knowledge-sharinggeneration facilities, they still account for over 10%
fold purpose: associated with target primary energy savings in
activities; and totofacilitate
coordinate the energy
the collection ofof annual gridsector
electricity
Electricity initiatives sales. There was a single
●● Street Lightingefficiency
energy savingactivities
Refurbishment: dataThis of the
between major
initiative industry government
the companies
aims
players andinlarge energy consumers;that to shareinitiativepresent
considered, as described below.
The electricity sector typically for
accounts for
to improveandenergy SEU, order
efficiency toindemonstrate
street lighting each value of net savings industrial
best practice between the companies through about half of primary energy use in Bahrain
through theparty is makingofprogress
replacement existing towards
high-pressure meeting its energy efficiency measures is aims
US$ 82 million.a
workshops
target (SEU, and
2017a).other knowledge-sharing●● Industry and Program:
has beenThis growing initiative
at about 4%toperdrive
year.
sodium lamps with and
activities; LEDtolamps. facilitate the collection of 1% improvement in annual energy consumption
Electricityinitiatives
Electricity initiatives include supply side
The industry
energy savingprogramme
data between has two the parts.
companies First, to reach a 4% energy
measures to reduce efficiency
lossesimprovement
for both the by
●● Green Public the Procurement:
five major This
energy usersinitiative
that aims
dominate the The
and SEU, in order to demonstrate that each 2020.production and transmission & distributionelectricity sector typically accounts for
to improve sector
party is(i.e.,
energy making ALBA
efficiency forinaluminum
progress government
towards smelting;
meeting its about half of primary energy use in Bahrain
GPIC
operations target
through for chemicals;
requiring
(SEU, 2017a). all public BAPCO
institutions for oil and hasProgram
The Industry been growing at about
initiative has 4% per year.
a three-fold
refining; Tatweer
to give preference to energyfor oil and efficientgas operations,
and Electricity initiatives include supply
purpose: to coordinate the energy efficiency activities side
The industry programme has two parts. First,
compact withof the measures to reduce losses for both the
sustainableand Bahrainwhen
products Steelpurchasing
will sign a products, major industry players and large energy
the
the five
Ministermajorofenergy usersand
Electricity thatWater
dominate the
Affairs, production and transmission & distribution
equipment sector and (i.e.,services.ALBA for aluminum smelting; consumers; to share best practice between the
committing to meeting the energy savings
GPIC
targets. for
Other chemicals;
major companies BAPCOand forlargeoil
Figure 4-3 (top) summarizes
refining; Tatweer projected
for oil target
and gas energy
operations,
energy consumers will also sign the compact.
savings over theand 2015-2030
Bahrain period
Steel willfor thesign government
a compact
Second, a network will be introduced to with
help
sector. By 2025, the projected
Minister ofannual savings
Electricity and total
Water 307Affairs,
coordinate and share best practice between
GWh, or aboutcommitting
the5% of the to
members. meeting
target. the energy
Cumulative energy savings
targets.
savings total 3,455 GWh Other major 2030,
through companies with streetand large
Figure 4-4
energy
lighting refurbishment and(top)
consumers greensummarizes
will
public projected
alsoprocurement
sign the compact. target
energy
accounting forSecond,
35% and savings
30%over
a network thebe
will
of savings, 2015-2030
introduced period
respectively. for
to help
the industrial
coordinate
Figure 4-3 (bottom) sector.
and sharethe
summarizes By
bestpresent2025, projected
practicevalue between
annual
the savings total 786 GWh, or about 14%
members.
of the costs and benefits over the 2015-2030 period,
of the target. Cumulative energy savings total
showing cost savings
Figure
7,862 4-4 for (top)
GWh eachthrough
measure.2030.
summarizes The present
projected
Figuretarget 4-4
value of net energy savings savings
for over
all the 2015-2030
governmental
(bottom) summarizes the present value of the period
energy for Figure 4-4: Top: Target industrial sector primary energy
the savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits
efficiency measurescostsindustrial
is US$
and benefits45sector.
million.
over the By 2015-2030
2025, projected period, associated with target primary energy savings in
annual
showingsavings total 786for
cost savings GWh, or about 14%
the initiative. The
of the target. Cumulative energy savings total industrial sector
Industrial initiatives
7,862 sector
Bahrain’s industrial GWh through contributes2030. over Figure
40% 4-4 Figure 4-4: Top: Target industrial sector primary 61 | P a g e
energy
(bottom) summarizes
to GDP, and in 2014 employed over 16% of the the present value of the savings, 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits
workforce (SEU, costs and benefits
2017a). It is alsooverthe thelargest
2015-2030 single period, associated with target primary energy savings in
energy consuming sector, typically accounting for The industrial sector
showing cost savings for the initiative.
61 | P a g e
56
companies through (T&D), as well asand
workshops demand side measures to
other knowledge-
better manage daytime
sharing activities; and to facilitate the collection peak consumption.
of
energy saving data between the companies and SEU, were
There were 4 major initiatives that
considered, as
in order to demonstrate thatdescribed in theis bullets
each party makingbelow.
progress towards • Electricity
meetingProduction
its targetEfficiency:
(SEU, This initiative
2017a).
aims for a 1% improvement by 2025 in
The industry programmecombustion.has Ittwowill parts.accomplish
First, the this
through a number of
five major energy users that dominate the sector (i.e., complementary
ALBA for aluminum measures including
smelting; GPICreducing reliance on
for chemicals;
BAPCO for oilleast efficient
refining; Tatweer plants;
for using
oil andaggregated
gas
demand reduction/response
operations, and Bahrain Steel will sign a compact as an
alternative to new capacity; using demand
with the Minister of Electricity and Water Affairs,
side frequency response as an alternative to
committing to meeting the energy savings targets.
spinning reserve; and using real-time tariffs
Other major companies to better and large
utilize energy
existing consumers
capacity.
will also sign the compact. Second, a network will be
introduced to help • Electricity
coordinateT&D andEfficiency:
share bestThis initiative
practice Figure 4-5: Top: Target electric sector energy savings,
between the members. aims to improve the efficiency of the 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated with
electricity delivery system and reduce target primary energy savings in power supply sector
current system losses of 9.8%. It will
Figure 4-4 (top) summarizes projected target energy
involve conducting dynamic line rating●● Electricity
and 31% T&Dof Efficiency: This initiative
savings, respectively. aims4-5
Figure to
savings over thetrials; 2015-2030
using period
capacityfor banks
the industrial
and battery improve
(bottom)the efficiency
summarizes of the
thepresent
electricity
valuedelivery
of the
sector. By 2025,storage projected annual savings
to better manage the system;total 786 and system and reduce current system losses
costs and benefits over the 2015-2030 period,of 9.8%.
GWh, or about 14% of the conductors,
upgrading target. Cumulative energy and
transformers It willshowing
involve cost savingsdynamic
conducting for eachline
measure. The
rating trials;
savings total 7,862 GWh through 2030. Figure 4-4
cables. usingpresent
capacityvalue ofand
banks net battery
savingsstorage
for all to
electric
better
(bottom) summarizes the present value of the costs sector
manage theenergy efficiency
system; measures conductors,
and upgrading is US$ 135
• Power Factor Correction: This initiative aims to
and benefits over the 2015-2030 period, showing cost million.
transformers and cables.
improve the power factor to be 0.9 or
savings for the initiative. The present value of net
greater. A low power factor can result in
savings for industrialoverallenergy
higher efficiency PowerTransport
measures is due●●
electricity consumption Factor initiatives
Correction: This initiative aims to
US$ 82 million. to overheating of equipment; low efficiency The the
improve transport sectortotypically
power factor be 0.9 or accounts
greater. A forlow
of connected devices; and high voltage powerabout
factor31%canofresult
primary energyhigher
in overall use inelectricity
Bahrain
Electricity initiativesdrops in alternators and transformers. and has been growing rapidly,
consumption due to overheating of equipment; at about 5.3%
The electricity sector typically accounts for about per year, a rate that exceeds both
low efficiency of connected devices; and high population
• Smart Metering Program: This initiative aims and drops
GDP ingrowth rates. and
Most travel is by
half of primary energy use in Bahrain and has been voltage alternators transformers.
to introduce smart meters to high personal vehicle and fuel prices are heavily
growing at about 4% per year. Electricity initiatives
electricity consumers and new
include supply side measures to reduce losses
developments. Smart meters record●● for Smartsubsidized.
both Metering Until recently,
Program: This public transport
initiative aims
the production and transmission & distribution infrastructure has been minimal. Transport
electricity use and communicates theto introduce smart meters to high electricity
initiatives include market-based measures
information to the electricity supplier for consumers and new developments. Smart
that send better fuel price signals to drivers,
(T&D), as well monitoring.
as demand side measuresbetter
It promotes to better
ability to
meters record
as well as electricity
regulatory use and communicates
measures to advance
manage daytimemanage peak consumption.
daytime consumptionThere were peaks4 and
the high
information to the electricity supplier for
efficiency vehicle purchases, as
major initiatives electricity consumptionasthrough
that were considered, described theinuse of
monitoring. It promotes better ability to manage
described in the bullets below.
the bullets below. real-time pricing. daytime consumption peaks and electricity
• Transportthrough
Subsidy the
Reform: This initiative aims
Figure 4-5 (top) summarizes projected target consumption for a 4% reduction
use of
in annual
real-time
fuel use
pricing.
in the
●● Electricity Production Efficiency:
energy savings overThis initiative aims
the 2015-2030 period for
for a 1% improvement by 2025 in combustion. light duty vehicle fleet. It will accomplish
the electric sector. By 2025, projected annualFigure 4-5this
(top) summarizes
through projected
modification to thetarget
retailenergy
price
It will accomplish this through a number of
savings total 975 GWh, or about 17% of thesavings over the 2015-2030
of gasoline and dieselperiod
fuel, a for
reform theprocess
electric
complementarytarget. measures
Cumulativeincluding
energy reducing
savings totalsector. Bythat
2025, hasprojected annual savings
been underway since 2016. totalThe
975
reliance on11,293 GWh through 2030, with powerGWh, or about
least efficient plants; using aggregated 17% of the target. Cumulative
price of regular grade gasoline (91 Octane) energy
factor correction andas electricity
demand reduction/response productionsavings total
an alternative 11,293increased
is being GWh through
by 42%,2030,fromwith US$power
0.21
efficiency
to new capacity; improvements
using demand side accounting for 56%factor correction and electricity production efficiency
frequency
response as an alternative to spinning reserve; improvements accounting for 56% and 31% of savings,
and using real-time tariffs to better utilize existing 62 | P a g e
respectively. Figure 4-5 (bottom) summarizes the
capacity. present value of the costs and benefits over the 2015-
2030 period, showing cost savings for each measure.

57
The present value of net savings for all electric sector establishing an enabling environment. Hence, cross-
energy efficiency measures is US$ 135 million. sectoral initiatives include actions to overcome
barriers to energy efficiency such as lack of awareness,
Transport initiatives competing priorities, hidden costs, and access to timely
The transport sector typically accounts for about 31% and accurate information.
of primary energy use in Bahrain and has been growing
rapidly, at about 5.3% per year, a rate that exceeds both There were 4 major initiatives that were considered, as
population and GDP growth rates. Most travel is by described in the bullets below.
personal vehicle and fuel prices are heavily subsidized.
Until recently, public transport infrastructure has Electricity Subsidy Reform: This initiative aims to
been minimal. Transport initiatives include market- gradually increase electricity tariffs to reflect the actual
based measures that send better fuel price signals to costs of power generation and promote more efficient
drivers, as well as regulatory measures to advance high electricity consumption. Electricity tariff reform has
efficiency vehicle purchases, as described in the bullets been underway since 2016. For the first 3,000 kWh per
below. month, the residential rate will be gradually increased
from US$ 0.008/kWh to US$ 0.08/kWh by 2019.
●● Transport Subsidy Reform: This initiative aims for a 4% For consumption above 5,000 kWh per month, the
reduction in annual fuel use in the light duty vehicle industrial rate will be gradually increased from US$
fleet. It will accomplish this through modification 0.04/kWh to US$ 0.08/kWh by 2019. When the
to the retail price of gasoline and diesel fuel, a effects of these new tariffs are fully realized, they are
reform process that has been underway since 2016. projected to result in a 14% reduction in electricity use
The price of regular grade gasoline (91 Octane) compared to the 2009 – 2013 baseline.
is being increased by 42%, from US$ 0.21 to
US$ 0.30, while the price of premium grade gasoline ●● Raising Awareness & Information Dissemination: This
(95 Octane) is being increased by 60%, from initiative aims to augment information campaigns
US$ 0.26 to US$ 0.42. that focus on ways to reduce energy use, including
habits and behaviors that should be modified and
●● Vehicle Efficiency Standards & Labeling: This initiative energy-consuming equipment and appliances that
aims to improve efficiency in the transport sector should be replaced.
by setting minimum fuel economy standards for
light duty vehicles; and by making vehicle fuel ●● Training for Market Actors: This initiative aims to
economy an explicit part of the purchase decision build and increase capacity in the energy services
by ensuring that labels are appropriately displayed market, including energy efficiency training,
thereby increasing consumer awareness. The accreditation and certification programmes
fuel economy labels for light duty vehicles were
to US$ 0.30, while the price of premium
implementedgrade on all gasoline
new vehicles
(95 ofOctane)
model 2018.
is being
increased by 60%, from US$ 0.26 to US$
Figure 4-6 (top) 0.42.summarizes projected target energy
savings over the 2015-2030 period for the transport
Vehicle Efficiency
sector. By 2025,• projected Standards
annual savings &22Labeling:
total kTOE This
initiative aims to improve efficiency in the
(253 GWh), or about 4% of the target. Cumulative
transport sector by setting minimum fuel
energy savings total 219 kTOE (2,549 GWh) through
economy standards for light duty vehicles;
2030, with fuel subsidy
and by reforms accounting
making vehicle fuelfor 74% an
economy
of the savings. Figure 4-6 (bottom) summarizes
explicit part of the purchase decision the by
present value of ensuring
the costs andthatbenefits
labels overare the 2015-
appropriately
2030 period, showing cost savings for each measure.
displayed thereby increasing consumer
The present value of net savings
awareness. The for
fuelalleconomy
governmental
labels for
energy efficiencylightmeasures is US$ were
duty vehicles 55 million.
implemented on all
new vehicles of model 2018.
Cross sectoral initiatives
Figure 4-6 (top) summarizes projected target
These initiativesenergyrefersavings
to actions that
over the can support
2015-2030 period for Figure 4-6: Top: Target transport sector energy savings,
the implementation of the sector.
the transport previousBymeasures by
2025, projected 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated with
target primary energy savings in transport sector
annual savings total 22 kTOE (253 GWh), or
about 4% of the target. Cumulative energy will be gradually increased from US$
58 savings total 219 kTOE (2,549 GWh) 0.008/kWh to US$ 0.08/kWh by 2019. For
through 2030, with fuel subsidy reforms consumption above 5,000 kWh per month,
 designated
tailored to energy auditors,agency to
energy managers coordinate
and
implementation
energy service providers. of the NEEAP.
Figure 4-7 (top) summarizes projected target
●● Institutional energy savings over
Infrastructure: Thisthe 2015-2030 period for
initiative aims
strengthen cross-cutting initiatives.
institutional capacity By 2025, projected
to implement the
annual for
various initiatives savings total the
achieving 461national
GWh, or about 8%
energy
of theIts
efficiency target. target.
focusCumulative energy
will be on the SEUsavings
as the total
4,969 GWh through 2030,
designated agency to coordinate implementation with electricity
subsidy
of the NEEAP. reforms accounting for 77% of the
savings. Figure 4-7 (bottom) summarizes the
Figure 4-7 (top) present value ofprojected
summarizes the coststarget
and benefits
energy over
the 2015-2030 period, showing cost savings
savings over the 2015-2030 period for cross-cutting
for each measure. The present value of net
initiatives. By 2025, projected annual savings total 461
savings for all governmental energy
GWh, or aboutefficiency
8% of the target. isCumulative
measures energy
US$ 54 million.
savings total 4,969 GWh through 2030, with electricity
subsidy reforms accounting
4.2.3. Renewablefor 77% of the
energy savings.
initiatives Figure 4-7: Top: Target cross-cutting energy savings,
Figure 4-7 (bottom) summarizes the present value 2015-2030; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated with
Currently the share of renewable energy in
of the costs and benefits over the 2015-2030 period, target primary energy savings for cross-cutting
Bahrain’s electricity generation mix is
showing cost savings for each measure. The present initiatives
negligible. To date, there have been two pilot
value of net projects:
savings fora 0.5allMWgovernmental energy wind
building-integrated digestion can yield benefits as both a renewable
efficiency measures is US$ 54 million. energyTosource
tap into andthese renewable
sustainable wasteresources,
management the
project at the Bahrain World Trade Center;
NREAP identified 3 policies to achieve a
and BAPCO’s 5 MW solar PV system practice.
national renewable energy target of 5% of
4.2.3. Renewabledeployed at energy initiatives
three locations.
peak capacity by 2025 and 10% by 2035. The
Currently the share of renewable
Yet, Bahrain energy in
has significant Bahrain’senergyTo tap into
renewable these renewable
combined impact resources,
associated the NREAP
with the
electricity generation
potential,mixasisoutlined
negligible. To bullets
in the below. identifiedimplementation
date, there 3 policies to achieve of thesea policies
nationalhaverenewable
been
have been two pilot projects: a 0.5 MW building- energy target
includedof 5% in of
thepeak
GHG capacity by 2025
mitigation and 10%
assessment.
 Solar: Average solar radiation has been
integrated wind estimated
project at atthe Bahrain World Trade by 2035.Renewable
The combined impact
capacity associated
additions in 2030 withwere
the
about 5.2 kWh/m 2
/day, with
Center; and BAPCO’s 5 MWsunshine
solar PV system implementation
interpolatedof thesefrompolicies
the above have beenFigure
targets. included
4-
an average durationdeployed
of 9.2 hours
at three locations.(Alnaser, et al., 2014). in the 8GHG
identifiesmitigation
the assessment.
specific policies Renewable
together with
capacity the corresponding
additions in 2030 weretype interpolated
of renewablefrom energy
the
 Onshore wind: Preliminary wind mappingabove targets. capacity Figureinstalled
4-8 and
identifies annual
the renewable
specific policies
Yet, Bahrain has significant renewable energy potential,
findings show large areas of the countrytogether electricity with the generation
corresponding in 2025typeandof2035. Each
renewable
as outlined in the bullets below.
with average annual wind speeds at 50energy of these renewable resources
capacity installed and annual renewable are briefly
meters of 6.0 meters per second, indicating described in the
●● Solar: AverageBahrain
solar radiation has been estimated at forelectricity generation in subsections
2025 andbelow. 2035. Each of
has a wind resource suitable
about 5.2 kWh/m these renewable resources are briefly described in the
power/day, with an average sunshine
2
generation (SEU, 2017b). Solar PV initiatives
duration of 9.2 hours (Alnaser, et al., 2014). subsections below.
 Offshore wind: Bahrain has shallow waters Solar PV systems will be deployed as
suggesting offshore wind could be a cost-Solar PVdecentralized initiatives renewable energy applications
●● Onshore wind: Preliminary wind mapping findings
competitive option if the resource potentialSolar PVin systems urban areas as well asas decentralized
will be deployed large-scale
show large areas of the country with average
is confirmed through subsequent studies torenewable installations on available
energy applications land. areas
in urban Decentralized
as well as
annual wind speeds at 50 meters
be as favorable as theofonshore
6.0 meters per
potential. applications
large-scale installations include
on the
availablefollowing:
land. Decentralized
second, indicating Bahrain has a wind resource
suitable for Biogas:
power With
generation
Decentralized more than
(SEU,1.7
rooftop million
2017b).
solar tonnes
on existing  Solar systems for new housing units;
of mostly organic municipal
residential and commercial buildings. solid waste
 Solar systems for government buildings;
landfilled
●● Offshore wind: Bahrain has shallow each year, biogas energy
waters suggesting
Large-scale
generation throughinstallation opportunities
anaerobic digestion canon  Decentralized solar in urban developments
offshore wind could
available be a cost-competitive
land include option
theafollowing:
yield benefits as both renewable energy (solar lighting, solar parking); and
if the resource potential is confirmed through
source and
Utility-scale sustainable
renewable waste
solar PVmanagement
subsequent practice.
studies to be as favorable as farms
the by
large
onshore potential. industry groups; and
 Solar farms in new town developments. 64 | P a g e
●● Biogas: WithThemore than 1.7 million tonnes of mostly
costs for solar PV systems have dropped Figure 4-8: Policy-induced renewable electricity
organic municipal
significantly solidoverwaste landfilled
the past decades.each By 2025 penetration levels considered in the GHG mitigation
year, biogasinenergy
Bahrain,generation through
the levelized costanaerobic
of energy at a assessment (adapted from SEU, 2017b)
weighted average cost of capital of 7.5% is
projected to be between US$ 0.049/kWh and with estimates available from the US Energy
US$ 0.063/kWh (SEU, 2017b). By 2035, this Information Administration (USEIA). 59
cost is projected to drop to between US$
applications include
presentthevalue
following:
of the costs and benefits over
the 2015-2030 period, showing net costs of
●● Solar systems
US$for new housing units;
2 million.

Biogas
●● Solar systems forinitiatives
government buildings;
Biogas systems will be deployed as large-scale
●● Decentralized solar in urban
installations developments
on available (solar
land. Opportunities
lighting, solar parking);
include and gas capture at the Askar
landfill
landfill site and a waste-to-energy plant at the
●● Decentralized
Tubli wastewater
rooftop treatment
solar on existingplant.
residential
and commercial buildings.
The costs for biogas systems are highly
dependent on economies of scale. Current
●● Large-scaleestimates
installation
areopportunities
between US$on0.14/kWh
available and
land include the following:
US$ 0.17/kWh. For the GHG mitigation
assessment, the average levelized cost of
●● Utility-scaleelectricity
renewable for solar
biogasPV
systems
farmswas
by assumed
large to
be $0.155/kWh
industry groups; and (USEIA, 2019). Figure 4-9: Top: Assumed renewable capacity
expansion plan; Bottom: Costs and benefits associated
Figure 4-9 (top) summarizes projected target with target renewable energy generation
●● Solar farmscapacity
in new additions
town developments.
over the 2015-2030 period
for biogas systems. By 2030, projectedregime. Byefficiency 2025, installed costs of
is roughly 2.3onshore
times morewind cost-
could
The costs forcapacitysolar totals
PV systems
7.5 MW, have about 20fall by 12%
dropped
generating effective
by 2025, perresulting
unit of carbon
in a 34% avoided.
reduction of
significantly over
GWh.the past
Figuredecades. By 2025 in
4-9 (bottom) Bahrain, the
summarizes today’s levelized
Figure 4-10 (top) provides a summary of(SEU,
cost of onshore wind energy the
present
the levelized cost of value
energyofatthea costs average over2017b). change
and benefits
weighted For theinGHG annualmitigation
primary assessment,
energy in the the
cost of capitaltheof 2015-2030 period, showing
7.5% is projected net costs ofaverage levelized
to be between combinedcost of electricity
scenario. Figure from 4-10onshore wind
(bottom)
US$ 4 million.
US$ 0.049/kWh and US$ 0.063/kWh (SEU, 2017b). farms was assumed to be $0.055/kWh,
provides a summary of annual carbon consistent with
By 2035, this cost is projected to drop to between estimatesemission
available from the US in
reductions Energy
the Information
combined
4.3. Results
US$ 0.036/kWh and US$ 0.055/kWh. For the GHG Administration
scenario. (USEIA).
mitigation assessment,
Table 4-2the average
provides levelized
an overall cost ofof the
summary Annual emission reductions in 2030 in the
electricity for costs
solar and
PV benefits
systems associated
was assumed thebeenergyOffshore wind
withto combined scenario, while representing a
$0.058/kWh. efficiency and renewable energy initiatives ofOffshoresubstantial wind systems impact will be mostly
in absolute terms deployed
(i.e., 1.9
the NEEAP and NREAP. The followingas large-scale installations on available
million tonnes), are small relative to overall land. These
bullets highlight key findings:
Figure 4-9 (top) summarizes projected target capacity opportunities on available land include
projected emissions in 2030 across the the following:
additions over theCO2015-2030 period for solar PV. By
2e reductions: The 22 energy efficiency
Bahrain economy in that year. The impact of
2030, projected initiatives
capacity totals 300 MW, generating
provide most of the cumulative ● ● Near shore
the NEEAPor offshore
and NREAPwind farms;is more andsignificant
about 510 GWh.emission
Figure 4-9 (bottom) summarizes
reductions, about 77%,the over 3 when only the electric sector – where most of
present value of times the and
the costs cumulative
benefits emission reductions●● Integrating
over the 2015- the savings
renewableare based
energy - istechnologies
considered.inOn a
large
from renewable
2030 period, showing cost savings energy
of US$ initiatives.
83 million. primary
infrastructure energy
projects basis, electric
(causeways generation
and railway
reaches 88,254 GWh in the BAU scenario in
systems).
 Investment costs: Both the energy efficiency
Onshore wind initiatives
and renewable energy initiatives can be
Aside from someimplemented
micro wind at opportunities The 4–2:
savings Table
in urban
substantial cost costsCosts
forandoffshore
benefitswindassociatedsystems are typically
with energy
efficiency and renewable energy generation targets
areas, onshore wind systems
to society. Thewillnet
bepresent
mostly value of cost between 1.5 and
deployed 3.3 times onshore wind system costs
CO2e reductions Cost of Saved
savings
as large-scale installations from
on availableenergyland. efficiency
These due to the fact that marine environment
(million tonnes) Costs
exposes the
Carbon (2015
opportunities oninvestments
available landis include
nearly the
US$ 1 billion, units to high humidity,
following: In In salt
2015-water, andPVsalt-water
(million US$/tCO2spray
e
Scenario 2025 2030 2030 2015 US$) saved)
roughly 8 times that of renewable energy. making Energy
installation and operation and maintenance
more 1.2
challenging 1.2
(SEU,12.82017b). -926 For the -72 GHG
●● Utility-scale wind
Costs offarms by carbon:
avoiding large industry
While bothgroups;
energy efficiency
Renewable assessment, the average levelized cost of
and efficiency and renewable energy mitigation energy
0.3 0.7 3.9 -123 -32

investments reduce carbon emissions Combined electricity for offshore wind farms was assumed to be
●● Wind farms on otheralso
while available land. costs, energy $0.118/kWh
reducing efficiency &
renewable
(USEIA,
1.5 1.9 2018).
16.7 -1,050 -63

The costs for onshore wind systems have also dropped Figure 4-9 (top) summarizes projected target capacity
66 | P age
significantly over the past decades. Levelized cost of additions over the 2015-2030 period for offshore wind.
energy can vary substantially depending on the wind By 2030, projected capacity totals 25 MW, generating

60
about 62 GWh. Figure 4-9 (bottom) summarizes the Figure 4-10 (bottom) provides a summary of annual
present value of the costs and benefits over the 2015- carbon emission reductions in the combined scenario.
2030 period, showing net costs of US$ 2 million. Annual emission reductions in 2030 in the combined
scenario, while representing a substantial impact in
Biogas initiatives absolute terms (i.e., 1.9 million tonnes), are small
Biogas systems presentwill value
be of the costsasandlarge-scale
deployed benefits overrelative to overall projected emissions in 2030 across
installations ontheavailable
2015-2030 land.period, showing include
Opportunities net costs ofthe Bahrain economy in that year. The impact of the
US$ 2 million.
landfill gas capture at the Askar landfill site and a waste- NEEAP and NREAP is more significant when only
to-energy plant at the Tubli wastewater treatment the electric sector – where most of the savings are
Biogas initiatives
plant. based - is considered. On a primary energy basis,
Biogas systems will be deployed as large-scaleelectric generation reaches 88,254 GWh in the BAU
installations
The costs for biogas systems on are
available
highlyland. Opportunities
dependent on scenario in 2030. The 20 energy efficiency initiatives
include landfill gas
economies of scale. Current estimates are between capture at the Askar result in 5,538 GWh in savings while renewable energy
US$ 0.14/kWh landfill
and site
US$and a waste-to-energy
0.17/kWh. For the plantGHGat thedisplaces another 3,383 GWh in that year. Combined,
Tubli wastewater
mitigation assessment, the averagetreatment plant. cost
levelized this represents about 10.8% of BAU grid electricity
of electricity forThe costs for biogas systems are highlyin that year. Cumulatively over 2015-2030, energy
biogas systems was assumed to be
$0.155/kWh dependent
(USEIA, 2019). on economies of scale. Currentefficiency measures lead to 55,301 GWh of reductions,
estimates are between US$ 0.14/kWh andwith another 19,349 GWh of grid electricity displaced
Figure 4-9 (top) US$ 0.17/kWh.projected
summarizes For thetargetGHG mitigationby electricity from renewables.
capacity
assessment, the average
additions over the 2015-2030 period for biogas systems. levelized cost of
By 2030, projected capacity totals 7.5 MW, generating to Figure 4-9: Top: Assumed renewable capacity
electricity for biogas systems was assumed
about 20 GWh. be Figure
$0.155/kWh (USEIA,summarizes
4-9 (bottom) 2019). the
4.4. Next steps
expansion
Additional COplan; Bottom: Costs
e reductions andbe
could benefits
achievedassociated
through
present value of Figure 4-9 (top)
the costs and summarizes
benefits overprojected
the 2015-targetdeepening
with target
2
renewable energy generation
energy savings across the 22 options up to
capacitynet
2030 period, showing additions
costs of over
US$the4 2015-2030
million. period
the identified savings,
efficiency is which
roughlywould2.3 timesannually
moreresult
cost-in
for biogas systems. By 2030, projected
capacity totals 7.5 MW, generating about 20 about 1.6 million tonnes in additional
effective per unit of carbon avoided. CO 2
e reductions
4.3. Results GWh. Figure 4-9 (bottom) summarizes the when fully implemented, or an additional
Figure 4-10 (top) provides a summary of the
17.6 million
Table 4-2 providespresentanvalueoverall of summary
the costs and of the costs overtonnes, cumulatively over the 2015-2030 period.
benefits change in annual primary energy in the
and benefits the associated with the energy efficiency
2015-2030 period, showing net costs of combined scenario. Figure 4-10 (bottom)
and renewableUS$ energy initiatives of the NEEAP and
4 million. While not providesaccounteda summary for in oftheannual currentcarbon GHG
NREAP. The following bullets highlight key findings: mitigation assessment, additional
emission reductions in the2 combined CO e reductions
4.3. Results could be achieved through introducing other types
scenario.
●● CO2e reductions:
TableThe 4-2 22 energyanefficiency
provides initiativesof theof initiatives. This is particularly true for the oil and
overall summary Annual emission reductions in 2030 in the
provide most of the cumulative
costs and benefits associated with emission
the energygas, transport, and residential sectors, where additional
combined scenario, while representing a
reductions,efficiency
about 77%, andover 3 times energy
renewable the cumulative
initiatives ofannual emission reductions of about 0.329 million
substantial impact in absolute terms (i.e., 1.9
emission the reductions from renewable
NEEAP and NREAP. The following energy tonnes of
million2 tonnes), initiatives
CO e. These are outlined
are small relative in the
to overall
initiatives.bullets highlight key findings: bullets below
projected and emissions
summarizedin in2030 Tableacross
4-3. the
 CO2e reductions: The 22 energy efficiency Bahrain economy in that year. The impact of
●● Investment costs: Both the energy efficiency
initiatives provide most of the cumulative and ● ● Oil & NEEAP
the gas sector:and A NREAP
total of is16 efficiency
more significant and
renewable energy initiatives
emission can be about
reductions, implemented
77%, over at 3 renewable when only energy projectssector
the electric are planned
– wherefor 2017–
most of
substantial cost savings to society. The net
times the cumulative emission reductions present 2025. the savings are based - is considered. On a
When fully implemented, these projects
value of cost savings from energy
from renewable energy initiatives. efficiency would primary
annually energy
lead tobasis, electric
reductions generation
of about 0.165
investments is nearly US$ 1 billion, roughly 8 times reaches 88,254
million tonnes of CO2e. GWh in the BAU scenario in
 Investment costs: Both the energy efficiency
that of renewable energy.
and renewable energy initiatives can be
implemented at substantial cost savings Table 4–2: Costs and benefits associated with energy
●● Costs of avoiding carbon: While
to society. The netbothpresent
energyvalue
efficiency
of cost
efficiency and renewable energy generation targets
and renewable energy investments reduce carbon CO2e reductions Cost of Saved
savings from energy efficiency (million tonnes) Costs Carbon (2015
emissions while also reducing
investments is nearly costs,
US$ 1energy billion, In In 2015- (million PV US$/tCO2e
efficiency is roughly
roughly 82.3 times more cost-effective Scenario 2025 2030 2030 2015 US$) saved)
times that of renewable energy. Energy
per unit of carbon avoided. efficiency
1.2 1.2 12.8 -926 -72
 Costs of avoiding carbon: While both energy
Renewable
efficiency and renewable energy energy 0.3 0.7 3.9 -123 -32
Figure 4-10 (top) provides a summary of the change
investments reduce carbon emissions Combined
in annual primary whileenergyalsoin the combined
reducing scenario.
costs, energy efficiency & 1.5 1.9 16.7 -1,050 -63
renewable

66 | P61a g e
●● Transport sector:
2030. AThe total20ofenergy
8 Several initiatives
efficiency initiatives
have been result
investigated relative to their emissions
in 5,538 GWh in savings while
reduction renewable
potential energy
(AlSabbagh, 2018,
displaces 2019; 3,383
another
AlSabbaghGWh et al., in that year.
2017). WhenCombined, this represents
fully implemented,
about
these projects would 10.8% of BAU
annually leadgrid electricityofin that
to reductions
year. Cumulatively
about 0.164 million tonnes of CO2e. over 2015-2030, energy
efficiency measures lead to 55,301 GWh of
●● Residential reductions,
sector: A total with another 19,349 GWh
of 2 initiatives haveof grid
been investigated relative to their emissions from
electricity displaced by electricity
renewables.
reduction potential (AlSabbagh, 2018). When fully
implemented, these projects would annually lead
4.4. Next steps
to reductions of about 0.001 million tonnes of
CO 2 e. Additional CO2e reductions could be
achieved through deepening energy savings
Furthermore, across
there are the numerous
22 options other up toinitiatives
the identified
savings, which would
planned or underway in Bahrain which have not annually result in about
1.6 relative
yet been assessed million totonnestheir GHGin additional
reduction CO2e
reductions when fully implemented, or an
potential. These include the National Air Quality
additional 17.6 million tonnes, cumulatively
Strategy whichover
calls the
for 2015-2030
deploymentperiod.
of more efficient
combustion technologies, such as combined cycle gas
While not accounted
turbines and combined heat and powerfor in the current GHG
generation;
a carbon recovery plant by BAPCO in which CO2e
mitigation assessment, additional
Figure 4-10: Top: Annual change in primary energy use
CO2-rich wastereductions
stream gas would couldbe be usedachieved
for industrialthrough
in the combined scenario; Bottom: Annual CO2e
introducing other types of initiatives. This is
applications, and a carbon recovery project by GPIC reductions in the combined scenario
particularly true for the oil and gas, transport,
in which CO2 in the flue gases of a methanol plant
and residential sectors, where additional●● CO2e emission reduction targets: Concrete emission
would be captured (GoB, 2015).reductions of about 0.329 Furthermore, there are numerous other
annual emission reduction targets could be
initiatives planned or established
underway inthat reflect
Bahrain
million tonnes of CO2e. These initiatives are substantial cost-effective mitigation opportunities
There are several which have not yet been assessed relative to
outlinedhigh-level policy
in the bullets belowimplications
and summarized across the economy.
and recommendations that have emerged from the their GHG reduction potential. These
in Table 4-3.
national GHG mitigation assessment. These are briefly include the National Air Quality Strategy
 Oil & gas sector: A total of 16 efficiency and●● Carbon emission
which callscredits: An emissions
for deployment reduction
of more fund
efficient
outlined in the subsections below relative the work of
renewable energy projects are planned for couldcombustion be established where emitters are
technologies, such as combined granted
policymakers, practitioners, and researchers.
2017–2025. When fully implemented, these credits cycleforgas turbines
projects thatand combined
reduce heat
verifiable and
carbon
projects would annually lead to reductions emissions. power generation; a carbon recovery
When validated, the government plant by
4.4.1. Policymakersof about 0.165 million tonnes of CO 2e. wouldBAPCO
purchase in which CO2-rich
these credits waste stream
to encourage gas
further
Assigning clear mandates to a responsible authority would be used for
Transport sector: A total of 8 Several reductions. These credits could be financed by theindustrial applications, and
constitutes theinitiatives
first step toward
have been successfully
investigated a carbon
relative to removal recovery tariff
of electricity projectsubsidies.
by GPIC in which
addressing and managing climate change
their emissions and this step
reduction potential CO 2 in the flue gases of a methanol plant
has already been(AlSabbagh,
accomplished. 2018,In2019; would be captured (GoB, 2015).
the Jointet al.,●● Industrial energy efficiency: ISO50001 Energy
2007,AlSabbagh
National Committee 2017). When fully
on Climate Change implemented,
was initiated. these Management
There are several could
certification high-level policy
be mandated
In addition to the projects
assignedwould annually lead
fundamental taskstoofreductions
the implications
to ensure and recommendations
that energy that havein
efficiency is addressed
Committee, the of about 0.164
following actionsmillion tonnes of CO2e.
are recommended. emerged
industrial from the
processes thatnational GHG mitigation
lead to substantial carbon
 Residential sector: A total of 2 initiatives have emissions. assessment. These are briefly outlined in the
●● Climate changebeenstrategy: This is the
investigated first fundamental
relative to their emissions subsections below relative the work of
task of the Committee, which is still
reduction potential (AlSabbagh, policymakers,
in process.2018).●● Technology practitioners,
transfer: Access and researchers.
to environmentally sound
The strategyWhen fully implemented, these projects technologies should be pursued through a number
is critical for promoting climate-
4.4.1. Policymakers
resilient greenwould annually lead to reductions of about of mechanisms including bilateral or multilateral
growth.
0.001 million tonnes of CO2e. Assigningforeign
agreements, clear mandates to a responsible
direct investment, joint
●● Priority-setting: A set of priorities could be authority constitutes the first
ventures, licensing agreement on Trade Related step toward
established regarding GHG mitigation research, Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS)
capacity building, and funding for green energy 67 | P a g e
and opportunities under the UNFCC (AlJayyousi,
innovation. et al., 2018).

62
●● GCC engagement: The GCC can play a
Table 4–3: Additional GHG reduction opportunities in Bahrain
critical leadership role in promoting regional
successfully addressing and Annual
policies that promote a transition to low- reduction
managing climate change and this (million
carbon economy
step and
has resource
alreadyefficiency.
been tonnes of
Such policies could include
accomplished. In 2007,market-based
the Joint No. Project CO2e/yr)
instrumentsNational
such as Committee
carbon taxes, on cap-and-
Climate
Oil & gas Casing Vapor Recovery (CVR) Compression 0.010
(Tatweer) More utilization of solar power 0.002
trade systems, as well as incentives to
Change was initiated. In additionpromote Steam Trap Management system 0.014
low-carbontofuels and high-efficiency
the assigned fundamentalvehicletasks Mass loss reduction (Flaring & Fugitive Loss) 0.007
Insulation repair 0.007
purchases (AlJayyousi, et al., 2018).
of the Committee, the following Oil & gas Slop generation reduction program 0.014
actions are recommended. (BAPCO) Visual MESA software project 0.028
●● Monitoring Climate
and changeevaluation:
strategy: This Periodic
is the
Increase Efficiency of 5CDU Heaters 0.026
Improve performance of Platformer/ Unifiner heaters 0.009
assessments of thefundamental
first effectiveness task
of emission
of the ISO 50001 (Energy Management System) 0.028
reduction policies could be
Committee, institutionalized
which is still in LED lights in the Complex 0.000
LED lights in Bulk storage 0.001
to ensure actual reductions are
process. The strategy consistent with
is critical Oil & gas Provide solar energy to Buildings in the complex 0.000
stated targetsfor
as well as to identify
promoting necessary
climate-resilient (GPIC) Reduction of fuel natural gas in CDR unit 0.008
Interconnection of Boiler Feed Water pumps 0.008
modifications. green growth. Medium Pressure Stripper (Ammonia/Methanol plant 0.003
condensate) Subtotal 0.165
 Priority-setting: A set of priorities Behavioral change 0.0004
4.4.2. Practitioners
could be established regarding Residential
Solar water heaters 0.0002
Establishing clearGHG
protocols mitigation research,
for GHG mitigation Subtotal 0.001
Ban on less efficient cars 0.0087
capacity
assessment is essential to building,
ensuring aand funding
system that Penetration of battery-electric cars 0.0181
for green energy innovation.
adheres to international standards. The following Penetration of hybrid gasoline cars 0.0181
Introducing pay-as-you-drive insurance 0.0047
actions are recommended.
 CO2e emission reduction targets: Transport
Penetration of plug-in electric cars 0.0181
Concrete emission reduction Car registration fees based on car CO2 emissions 0.0062
Increasing the share of school buses 0.0588
●● Templates: A standardized
targets could be established
template couldthat
be Scrappage of old cars 0.0313
developed forreflect substantial
reporting cost-effective
the assessments of Subtotal 0.1640
mitigation opportunities
mitigation projects or initiatives in different across Total 0.3294

sectors, an the economy.

approach adopted in many
countries.  Carbon emission credits: An energy consumption and CO2e emissions data,
opportunities under the UNFCC
emissions reduction fund could be as well(AlJayyousi, as to promote institutional memory and
et al., 2018).
●● Energy balance:established
Given thewhere importanceemitters are granted ensure continuity.
of energy
 GCC engagement: The GCC can play a
in Bahrain’s credits
GHG for projects
emission that reduce
profile, verifiable
a detailed
critical leadership role in promoting
carbon
national energy balanceemissions.
could beWhen that the4.4.3. Researchers
validated,
prepared
government regional policies that promote a transition
includes regular updated would purchase
projections of these
energycreditsEstablishing an enabling environment for GHG
to low-carbon economy and resource
demand per to encourage
sector and energy further
type,reductions.
population,Thesemitigation efficiency.
assessment Such
is essential for could
policies ensuringinclude
state-
and economic credits could be financed by the removal of
growth. of-the-art market-based
methods and instruments
analytical tools
suchareas applied.
carbon
electricity tariff subsidies.
The following
taxes,actions are recommended.
cap-and-trade systems, as well as
●● Database development:
 Industrial energy efficiency: ISO50001
A mitigation assessmentEnergy incentives to promote low-carbon fuels
database couldManagement
be established certification could be●● Bottom-up
that includes andanalysis:
high-efficiency vehicleto encourage
It is imperative purchases
mandated to ensure that
all relevant data and initiatives within a single energy efficiency researchers(AlJayyousi, et al., 2018).
to calculate CO2e emissions based
informationalisplatform
addressed to in industrialresearch
encourage processesin that on a bottom-up
Monitoring approach
and – as opposed
evaluation: to a
Periodic
lead to substantial
GHG mitigation and other relevant topics.carbon emissions. top-down or econometric approach - becauseofit
assessments of the effectiveness
 Technology transfer: Access to provides greater granularity in the investigation
emission reduction policies could be of
●● Networking: Lessons
environmentally
learned couldsound be shared technologies
with institutionalized
the physical and economic to ensure actual reductions
implications of GHG
should bein pursued
other GCC countries order to through
learn froma number
best of mitigation are consistent
measures.with stated targets as well as
practices. Thismechanisms
would inform the including
process ofbilateral
policy or to identify necessary modifications.
multilateral
appraisal enhance agreements,
decision-making. The foreign
office of direct●● University curricula: The IPCC’s inventory and
 Table 4–3: Additional GHG
investment,
the GCC Secretary Generaljoint could playventures, licensing mitigation
a vital role assessment methodology could be
reduction opportunities in Bahrain
in this regard.agreement on Trade Related Aspects of introduced in higher education institutions to
Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and
contribute toward building national capacities in
●● National team: A permanent national team for conducting mitigation assessments.
mitigation assessment and energy modeling could 68 | P a g e
be established to ensure appropriate updating of

63
●● Future research: It is recommended that future J. (2017). Mitigation of CO2 emissions from the road
research focus on how CO2e emissions from passenger transport sector in Bahrain. Mitigation and
industrial processes and product use can be Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 22(1), 99-
mitigated. Additionally, conducting energy 119. doi: 10.1007/s11027-015-9666-8
consumption surveys for the different sectors
along with exploring the potential for carbon AlSabbagh, M.. 2018. Household electricity
capture, utilization and storage in Bahrain are consumption and climate change in the Kingdom of
highly recommended. Bahrain: Current state and future scenarios. Ajman
Journal of Studies and Research, 17(1), 22-59.
4.5. List of References Government of Bahrain (GoB). (2015). Intended
AlJayyousi, O., AlSultanny, Y., AlMahamid, S., Mirzal, Nationally Determined Contribution. Retrieved
A., and Bugawa, A., 2018. Technology Transfer of 16 January 2019, from https://www4.unfccc.int/
Green Technology - Opportunities and Barriers for sites/submissions/INDC/Submission%20Pages/
Technology Transfer to Address Climate Change submissions.aspx
Risks in Bahrain
Sustainable Energy Unit (SEU), 2017a. The Kingdom
Alnaser, W., Alnaser, N., and Batarseh, I., 2014. of Bahrain – National Energy Efficiency Action Plan
Bahrain’s BAPCO 5MWp PV Grid–Connected Solar (NEEAP), January.
Project, International Journal of Power and Renewable
Energy Systems, Volume 1. Sustainable Energy Unit (SEU), 2017b. The Kingdom
of Bahrain – National Renewable Energy Action Plan
AlSabbagh, M., 2019. Adopting Sustainable (NREAP), January.
Transport Measures in the Kingdom of Bahrain: A
Methodological Framework. Unpublished manuscript. US Energy Information Administration (USEIA),
2019. Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of
AlSabbagh, M., 2019. Mitigation Assessment for New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy
Bahrain’s TNC, Arabian Gulf University, February. Outlook 2019, February.
AlSabbagh, M., Siu, Y. L., Guehnemann, A., & Barrett,

64
5.
Other
information

Other information
National Circumstances
65 01
 This chapter presents an overview of other Bahrain’s infrastructure and environment.
information relevant to addressing climate About 70% of respondents were aware of sea
change in Bahrain. level rise and increasing temperatures.
5. Other information
5.1. Raising awareness of climate change
However, more than 55% of the study
sample has no awareness of other impacts of
The level of knowledge and awareness of climate change. Notably, this includes impact
climate change was assessed through a of climate change on rainfall patterns and
questionnaire dust storm frequency and intensity. Nor was
This chapter presents that an was completed
overview of other at a this includes impact of climate change on rainfall
workshop there an awareness of the links between
information relevant held at the Arab
to addressing Gulf change
climate University in patterns and dust storm frequency and intensity. Nor
(Abahussain, et al., 2018). The workshop was electricity use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Bahrain. was there an awareness of the links between electricity
held under the slogan "Climate change issue use There were numerous
and greenhouse suggestions from
gas emissions.
and its effects in the kingdom Bahrain". The respondents to make better use of social
5.1. Raising
workshopawareness
was attended of climate changeof
by 41 specialists media
There weretonumerous
build awareness.
suggestionsThis
fromcould be
respondents
The level which
of knowledge and awareness
26 completed the questionnaire. of climate augmented by print and televised media,
change was assessed through a questionnaire that to make better use of social media to build awareness.
The results of the survey showed that 88% of including the use of slogans (see figure
was completed at a workshop held at the Arab Gulf This could be augmented by print and televised media,
the study sample believed that the climate below). The use of brochures leaflets and
including the use of slogans (see figure below). The
Universityhad
(Abahussain,
changed and et al.,that
2018).
85%The of workshop
the study publications was deemed less effective.
was held under the slogan "Climate
sample considered the climate change change issue and
its effectsphenomenon
in the kingdom Bahrain". The
to be severe and deserved to be workshop
was attended by 41 specialists
addressed. This is evidence of which of the26 completed
importance
the questionnaire.
of climate change to respondents in the study Media organizations such as the Shura
sample.
The results of the survey showed that 88% of the use Council
of brochuresand members
leaflets andof publications
Parliament, was as well
deemed
Most believe that climate change is due to as civil society and education associations
less effective. Media organizations such as the Shura are
study sample
humanbelieved
causesthatdue,the climate
in part,had to changed
the increased and the most critical target audiences as in well
future
that 85% of the study sample considered theespecially
climate Council and members of Parliament, as civil
concentration of greenhouse gases, awareness campaigns.
society and education associations are the most critical
change phenomenon to be severe and
CO2. The sample study could not identify the deserved to
be addressed. ThisCOis 2evidence of thelevel importance of The
target survey also
audiences requested
in future that information
awareness campaigns.
current concentration (about 408 on ways to address climate change, the causes
climate change
ppm),to respondents
which would imply in the studyofsample.
a level technical
Theof the phenomenon
survey also requestedand thatthe policies toon
information deal
ways to
knowledge, and suggest the need to raise withclimate
it be provided. This suggests anphenomenon
interest
address change, the causes of the
awareness
Most believe of climate
that climate science
change is issues,
due toathuman least to
causes due,some rudimentary
in part, level while
to the increased linking it to the
concentration of and inthe
better understanding
policies to deal withthe scope
it be of policies This
provided.
that are being considered in
suggests an interest in better understanding the scope Bahrain
greenhouse importance of reducing
gases, especially CO2.emissions.
The sample study
could notThe identify of regarding
policies thatGHGaremitigation and adaptation.
being considered in Bahrain
resultsthealsocurrent
showedCO a lack
2
concentration
of awareness Finally,GHG
regarding 81% of the surveyand
mitigation sample agreed to a
adaptation.
level (about
of gases other CO2 in contributing atolevel
408 ppm), which would imply of
climate voluntary association to raise awareness of
technical knowledge,
change. Thisandwas suggest
notable theespecially
need to raise since climate
Finally, 81% of change, which
the survey is an
sample encouraging
agreed to a voluntary
awareness some
of climate science issues, at
GHGs have a greenhouse effect that least to some result, especially
exceeds the global warming association to raise since most of
awareness of the sample
climate change,
rudimentary level while linking it to thepotential
importance of COof 2 study is specialized or academic. Based on
by tens, hundreds, and thousands of times. which is an encouraging result, especially since most
reducing emissions. these findings,
These gases included HFC and PFCs. The of the sample studyaisclimate change
specialized awarenessBased
or academic.
on these findings, a climate change awareness5-1.
plan was developed, as outlined in Table plan was
The resultsresults of this portion
also showed a lack ofofawareness
the surveyofsuggest gases
developed, as outlined in Table 5-1.
other CO2 in contributing to climateofchange.
the need to build awareness the full set Thisof 5.2. Educational initiatives
was notablegasesespecially
that contribute
since to someclimate
GHGs change. have a
greenhouse There wasthat
effect good awareness
exceeds of thewarming
the global potential 5.2.Climate change concepts have thus far not
Educational initiatives
been largely incorporated into science and
physical
potential of CO2 byimpacts of climate
tens, hundreds, and change
thousands on Climate
socialchange concepts
science haveat
curricula thus
thefarelementary
not been largely
of times. These gases included HFC and PFCs. The incorporated into science and social science curricula
results of this portion of the survey suggest the at the elementary school level. To remedy
71 |this
P a situation,
ge
need to build awareness of the full set of gases that several activities were undertaken as summarized in
contribute to climate change. the subsections below, based on the work the TNC
Educational Group (Educational Group, 2018).
There was good awareness of the potential physical
impacts of climate change on Bahrain’s infrastructure
and environment. About 70% of respondents were
5.2.1. Assessment of climate change
aware of sea level rise and increasing temperatures. coverage in science curricula
However, more than 55% of the study sample has no This involved an analysis of science and social sciences
awareness of other impacts of climate change. Notably, curricula for grades 1 through 6. The analysis focused

66
on better understanding the coverage of climate climate change concepts were incorporated, either
change issues within elementary school level science directly or indirectly, into 34% of the 99 lessons.
curricula. The results showed that the 92% of fifth and
sixth grade science topics related, directly or indirectly,
to climate change.
5.2.3. Integration of climate change in
school level. In
Tofourth
remedygrade, this level several
this situation, was 83%. 5.2.2. Assessment of educational materials in
There activities
was no incorporation
were undertaken as summarizedtopics
of climate change in
practicum course
social sciences
withinthe
second grade science subjects. This involved incorporating the topic of climate change
subsections below, based on the work the
This involvedcourse
in practicum an assessment of educational
for the academic year 2017-1018
TNC Educational Group (Educational
materials regarding climate change concepts
for master’s students specializing in early education.
Group, 2018).
5.2.2. Assessment of educational aimed at thea elementary
Two lessons school level.
week were allocated The climate
to address
materials
5.2.1. inAssessment
social sciences
of climate change coverage in analysis
change content and activities. In one the
focused on a content analysis of lesson, the
This involved science curricula of educational materials
an assessment social science curriculum to investigate the
learning material was delivered within the curriculum.
extent to which 23 specific climate change
regarding
This involvedchange
climate concepts
an analysis aimed at
of science andthe In the other lesson training activities were provided
concepts were addressed by books used
elementary
social school
scienceslevel. The for
curricula analysis
gradesfocused
1 through on a using creative
within elementaryproblem-solving strategies.
grades. The results showed The lessons
content6. analysis
The of the social
analysis science on
focused curriculum
better to wereingiven
that to seven lessons
the fourteen classes in
forthree elementary schools
the first-grade
investigate the extent to which 23
understanding the coverage of climate specific climate social science, 64% of the topics during
for 175 male and female students involved the second
changechange
concepts were
issues addressed
within by books
elementary usedlevel
school within semester.
climate change concepts to some degree.
science curricula. The results showed that thethe
elementary grades. The results showed that in
92% of fifth In the second-grade book, the percentage of
fourteen lessons for and sixth gradesocial
the first-grade science topics
science, 64% The engagement of elementary school students was
related, directly or indirectly, to climate the topics that included climate change
of the topics involved climate change concepts to measured through final projects. Students were given
concepts was 28.5% of the fourteen lessons.
some change.
degree. In fourth grade, this level was 83%. open-ended
In instructions
the third-grade book,tothecome with final
percentage ofproducts.
There was no incorporation of climate The topics
form and
the thattherelate
content of the
directly to product
climate were left
In the change topicsbook,
second-grade withinthesecond gradeof science
percentage the topics to the students. This resulted in a variety
change was only 13.3% of the fifteen lessons. of creative
subjects.
that included climate change concepts was 28.5% of products,
For gradessuch
four as producing
through and performing
six, fourth fifth and a play
the fourteen lessons. In the third-grade book, the about grade,
sixth climateclimate
change, recycling
change activities,
concepts were art work
percentage of the topics that relate directly to climate incorporated, either directly or indirectly,in schools,
about climate change, planting some spaces
change was only 13.3% of the fifteen lessons. For into 34%and
writing of the 99 lessons.
distributing some informational leaflets
grades four through six, fourth fifth and sixth grade, and brochures about climate change.
Table 5–1: Framework of the public awareness programme on climate change
Planned Activity Target Groups Requirement Responsible Party
ü Media
The Supreme Council
organizations Holding training workshops for:
for Environment to
ü Shura Council ü Ministry of Information Affairs
begin correspondence
Three workshops to and Members of ü Shura Council and members of Parliament
with these bodies and
raise awareness Parliament ü Civil society Associations
arrange for the holding
ü Civil Society ü Education sector in the Ministry of Education (Training of
of workshops as soon
Organizations trainers)
as possible.
ü Educators
Preparation of a new training material in the upcoming ü The Supreme
training workshops containing the following topics: Council for
ü Results of the emissions inventory for the third National Environment to
Communication Report (abbreviated) provide the Panel
ü All GHGs gases causing climate change and with a summary of
demonstrating their impact over time, � raising the results of the
awareness of the impacts of climate change on various GHG emissions
sectors in the Kingdom of Bahrain. inventory of the
Update the content Climate change
ü Explain the Paris 2015 agreement, Nationally determined third national
of awareness Awareness Team -
contributions (NDCs), the Sustainable development communication
workshops Arab Gulf University
agenda (SDGs 2030) and its intersection with climate report
change, especially Goal 13 . Also, raise awareness of the ü The Arabian Gulf
causes of climate change, ways to address them, and University outreach
climate change policies in the areas of adaptation and team to prepare
mitigation, nationally and globally. scientific material of
ü Highlight the needs of cooperation of all countries, even new training
low-emitting countries like Bahrain, promoting the workshops for the
concept of “thinking globally and acting locally”. target groups.
Use of social media ü Set up a mental map (mind map) for awareness messages
to raise awareness Population of ü Logo Design (proposal of five logos required for approval Arabian Gulf University
about climate Bahrain by the Supreme Council for Environment) Awareness team
change ü Preparation of scientific material for awareness messages
Population of Establishing an association to raise awareness of climate Ministry of Labor and
NGOs/CSOs
Bahrain change and its impacts on Bahrain Social Affairs

72 | P a g e
67
5.2.4. Development of educational cognitive and emotional indicators in favor of the
experimental group.
materials
This involved the development of educational materials
for building climate change awareness aimed at fourth 5.2.6. Recommendations
and fifth graders. The focus was on augmenting Going forward, several recommendations are offered
5.2.3. Integration of climate change in practicum § Unit 3: This unit focused on the global
curricula with climate change based on the research undertaken the Educational
courseconcepts and developing impact of climate change (on ecosystems,
students’ abilities and skills through projects related to Team: human, health, drinking water resources,
This involvedactivities
climate change. Educational incorporating the topic of
were divided biodiversity animals, plants, etc);
climatedescribed
into six units, as briefly change inbelow.
practicum course for ● the
● Introduce the climate change educational in
academic year 2017-1018 for master’s the curriculum § Unit 4: forThis unit fifth
fourth, focused
andon the grade
sixth impact
students specializing in early education. Two throughoutof Bahrain; climate change on Bahrain (e.g.,
●● Unit 1: This unit focused on weather and climate.
lessons a week were allocated to address temperature changes, humidity changes,
It includes the concepts
climate change of content
climate andchange and In one
activities. sea level rise, biodiversity, etc);
global warming; lesson, the learning material was delivered ● ● Build awareness of climate change topics among
§ Unit 5: Thisstaff;
unit focused on suggested
within the curriculum. In the other lesson all elementary school
●● Unit 2: This training
unit focused on causes solutions (e.g., reduced water
activities were of provided
climate using
change. It includes ●● Conduct an consumption,
analysis of reducingthe science use of andelectricity,
social
creative causes related to strategies.
problem-solving human The renewable energy, expanding farming-
activities, GHGs,
lessonsand werenatural
given to seven classes in three science curriculum
causes; relative to climate change in
activities, recycling, using of clean fuel,
elementary schools for 175 male and female the higher awareness); grades; and
●● Unit 3: This unit students during
focused on the second semester.
global impact of
climate change ●● Introduce§ Unit 6: This unitactivities
educational focused onrelatedwhat cantowe
The(onengagement
ecosystems, of human, health, school
elementary do? :
drinking water resources,
students was biodiversity through final climate change in other curricula like languages,
measured animals,
plants, etc); projects. Students were given open-ended mathematics Sixteen and teachersIslamic studies.and 8 females)
(8 males,
instructions to come with final products. The were trained on implementing the six units
●● Unit 4: This unit form focused
and theon the impact
content of theofproduct
climatewere left during thetransfer
5.3. Technology second semester 2017-2018. After
to the students.
change on Bahrain This resulted
(e.g., temperature in a varietyAs
changes, completion
of discussed previously, of the units, a survey of 391 fifth
Bahrain is mainstreaming
creative
humidity changes, sea products, such as producing
level rise, biodiversity, etc); and and sixth grade students indicated statistically
a set of initiatives to support sustainable energy
performing a play about climate change, significant evidence of an increase in the
consistent with Economic
students’ awarenessVisionof2030, which
climate calls toas
change,
●● Unit 5: This unit recycling activities,
focused art work
on suggested about climate
solutions reduce GHG emissions
evidenced by per capita,scores
post-test to improve energy,
(see Table 5-2).
(e.g., reduced change, planting some
water consumption, spaces
reducing useinofschools,
and water efficiency, and develop renewable energy
writing and distributing
electricity, renewable energy, expanding farming- some informational
leafletsusing
and of
brochures about climate change.resources. In addition,
5.2.5. Engage Bahrain is embarking on a set
female students
activities, recycling, clean fuel, awareness); of energy efficiency projects in key industries such as
This involved getting a better understanding
5.2.4. Development of educational materials Aluminum of Bahrain, Bahrain
the degree Petroleum
to which female Company, and
sixth graders
●● Unit 6: This unit focused on what can we do? :
This involved the development the of Gulf Petroleum
are benefiting Industries Company.
from climate change focused
educational materials for
Sixteen teachers (8 males, and 8 females) were trained building climate education materials. A study was conducted
Bahrain faces
using several
a sample barriers
20 female for reaching
students exposed theto
on implementingchange the six awareness aimed the
units during at fourth
secondand fifth
technology transfer goals implied by Economic Vision
graders. The focus was on augmenting climate change materials and a control group
semester 2017-2018. After completion of the units, a 2030. Key ofbarriers
20 female include:students who did not have
curricula with climate change concepts and
survey of 391 fifth and sixth grade students indicated access to the climate change materials. The
developing students’ abilities and skills
statistically significant
through evidence
projectsof related
an increase in the change.
to climate ●● Limitedresults indicatedincentives;
market-based that there were statistically
students’ awareness of climate change, as evidenced
Educational activities were divided into six significant differences in cognitive and
by post-test scores (see Table 5-2).
units, as briefly described below. ●● Limitedemotional
access to indicators
informationin and favor of the
knowledge
experimental group.
§ Unit 1: This unit focused on weather and creation;
5.2.5. Engage female climate.students
It includes the concepts of
This involved gettingclimate a better change
understandingand ofglobal
the
Table 5–2: Mean and standard deviation for pre- and post-test
degree to which female warming;
sixth graders are benefiting for experimental group
from climate change focused education materials. A
§ Unit 2: This unit focused on Pre- test Post-test t- Statistical
study was conducted using causesa sample 20 female
of climate students
change. It Parameter Mean SD Mean SD value significance
exposed to climate change includesmaterials and ato control
causes related human Cognitive 2.28 0.32 2.52 .36 - .000
10.77
group of 20 female studentsactivities,who did notand
GHGs, have natural
access Emotional 2.32 0.39 2.35 0.36 -1.46 .144
to the climate changecauses; materials. The results indicated Behavioral 2.25 0.34 2.33 0.31 -3.31 .001
that there were statistically significant differences in Composite 2.28 0.27 2.40 0.26 -7.37 .000
Score

68 73 | P a g e
●● High cost of some renewable energy technologies. ●● Encouragement of emerging niche markets for
energy services through regulatory reform and
For Bahrain to overcome these barriers, it will need new incentive regimes.
to increase engagement with the private sector by
providing economic incentives and supporting public- ●● Support of regional cooperation on renewable
private partnerships. Specifically, the government has energy through network development,
a key role to promote strategic technology transfer harmonization of standards, sharing of technical
though making advancement on the following research, and improving the GCC interconnection
measures: grid.

●● Provision of an enabling environment for ●● Integration of green development strategies

technology transfer in renewable energy within the ongoing economic diversification
technologies in light of the findings of a previously strategy and tapping into international cooperation
conducted technology needs assessment; opportunities like the clean development
mechanism.
●● Enforcing intellectual property rights to provide
confidence to prospective private sector investors;
5.4. List of references
●● Improving knowledge management processes and Abahussain, A., El-Kholei, A., and al-'Aatim, M.,
platforms for knowledge sharing; 2018. Assessing the level of knowledge and awareness
of the climate change phenomenon in the Kingdom
●● Enhancing funding for R&D in green technology of Bahrain: proposed awareness plan, Arabian Gulf
and climate technologies for small- and medium- University.
sized enterprises;
Aljayyousi, O., Alsultanny, Y., Almahamid, S., Mirzal,
●● Developing technology transfer policies and A., and Bugawa, A., 2018. Technology Transfer of
integrating them within technology actions plans; Green Technology: Opportunities and Barriers for
and Technology Transfer to Address Climate Change
Risks in Bahrain.
●● Enhancing human capacity to support science-
policy dialogues, build public awareness, and Educational Group, 2018. A summary of the
manage technology information. Educational Group Report within the committee of
the third National statement-Report for the Kingdom
Going forward, priorities for technology transfer are of Bahrain in the UN Framework of climate Change
focused on the following: Agreement.

●● Introduction of solar thermal technologies (i.e.,

concentrated solar power), and advanced natural
gas technologies for the power sector (i.e.,
combined cycle);

●● Introduction of energy efficient technologies in

the aluminum smelting industry (e.g., efficient
motors, pumps, waste heat recovery).

●● Development of incentive regimes to facilitate

investments in clean energy technologies,
sustainable practices, and innovative research.

69
www.sce.gov.bh