Uniform and Exponential Probability Distribution.
Uniform and Exponential Probability Distribution.
There are a number of continuous distributions which have important applications in engineering and science.
Among the most important continuous probability distributions are:
𝒌 𝒊𝒇 𝒂 ≤ 𝒙 ≤ 𝒃
𝒇(𝒙) = {
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
Example (1): A clock stops at random at any time during the day. If 𝑿 is the time (hours plus fractions of
hours) at which the clock stops.
i) Determine the probability density function for 𝑋.
ii) Calculate the expected value and variance for 𝑋 at which the clock stops.
iii) Find the cumulative distribution function for rv 𝑋.
iv) Find the probability that the clock will stop between 2:00 pm and 2:45 pm using two methods.
Solution
∵ 𝑿 is the time at which the clock stops and follows a uniform distribution over the interval [0 , 24].
∞
Therefore, its probability density function for 𝑋 is 𝒇(𝒙) = 𝒌 and it satisfies; ∫−∞ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏
∴ ∞
⟹ 𝟐𝟒
⟹ 𝟐𝟒
⟹ 24 = 1
𝒌. | 𝑥 |
∫−∞ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏 ∫𝟎 𝒌 𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏 𝒌. ∫𝟎 𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏
0
𝟏
∴ 𝑘(24 − 0) = 1 ⟹ 24𝑘 = 1 ⟹ 𝒌 = 𝟐𝟒
i) The probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) over the interval [0 , 24], is given by the formula:
𝟏
𝒇(𝒙) = { 𝟐𝟒 𝒊𝒇 𝟎 ≤ 𝒙 ≤ 𝟐𝟒
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
∞
ii) The expected value of 𝑋 is, 𝑬(𝑿) = ∫−∞ 𝒙. 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙
𝑏 𝟏 24 𝟏 𝑥2 24 𝟏 𝟏
Therefore, 𝑬(𝑿) = ∫𝑎 𝑥. 𝑓(𝒙) 𝑑𝑥 = (𝟐𝟒 ) ∫0 𝑥. 𝑑𝑥 = (𝟐𝟒) . | | = (𝟐𝟒) (𝟐) 242 = 𝟏𝟐
2 0
∞
The variance of 𝑋 is, 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = 𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) − [𝑬(𝑿)]𝟐 = ∫−∞ 𝒙𝟐 . 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 − [𝑬(𝑿)]𝟐
24 𝟏 1 𝑥3 24 (12)2 (24)2
∴ 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = ∫0 𝒙𝟐 . (𝟐𝟒) 𝑑𝑥 − (12)2 = | | − = − (12)2 = 48
(24) 3 0 3
iii) The cumulative distribution function 𝑭(𝒙) for the continuous random variable 𝑿 is defined by:
𝒙
𝑭(𝒙) = 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝒙) = ∫−∞ 𝒇(𝒖) 𝒅𝒖 −∞<𝒙<∞
𝑥 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
∴ 𝑭(𝒙) = ∫0 (𝟐𝟒) 𝑑𝑢 = (𝟐𝟒) . | 𝑢 |𝑥0 = (𝟐𝟒) . 𝑥
𝟎 𝒙<𝟎
𝒙
∴ 𝑭(𝒙) = {
𝟐𝟒
𝟎 ≤ 𝒙 ≤ 𝟐𝟒
𝟏 𝒙 > 𝟐𝟒
14.75 14 0.75 1
iv) 𝑷(𝟏𝟒 < 𝑿 < 𝟏𝟒. 𝟕𝟓) = 𝑭(𝒃) − 𝑭(𝒂) = 𝐹(14.75) − 𝐹(14) = ( ) − (24) = = 32 and also,
24 24
𝒃 14.75 14.75 1 1 1
𝑷(𝟏𝟒 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟏𝟒. 𝟕𝟓) = ∫𝒂 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = ∫14 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫14 (24) 𝑑𝑥 = (24) [14.75 − 14] = 32
Example (2): The thickness x of a protective coating applied to a conductor designed to work in corrosive
conditions follows a uniform distribution over the interval [20 , 40] microns. Find the mean, standard deviation
and cumulative distribution function of the thickness of the protective coating. Find also the probability that the
coating is less than 35 microns thick.
Solution
∵ Let 𝑋 be the random variable that represent the thickness x of a protective coating applied to a conductor
and follows a uniform distribution over the interval [20 , 40]. Therefore, its 𝑓(𝑥) is pdf that satisfies;
∞ ∞ 𝟒𝟎 𝟒𝟎 40 = 𝑘(40 − 20) = 20𝑘
∫−∞ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏, ⟹ ∫−∞ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = ∫𝟐𝟎 𝒌 𝒅𝒙 = 𝒌. ∫𝟐𝟎 𝒅𝒙 = 𝒌. | 𝑥 |
20
𝟏 𝟓
∴ 20𝑘 = 1 ⟹ 𝒌 = 𝟐𝟎 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
i) Over the interval [20 , 40] the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) is given by the formula:
𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 𝒊𝒇 𝟐𝟎 ≤ 𝒙 ≤ 𝟒𝟎
𝒇(𝒙) = {
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
∞ 40 𝑥2 40 (𝟎.𝟎𝟓) [402
ii) Mean 𝑬(𝑿) = ∫−∞ 𝒙. 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 = (𝟎. 𝟎𝟓) ∫20 𝑥. 𝑑𝑥 = (𝟎. 𝟎𝟓). | | = 2 − 202 ] = 30 𝜇𝑚
2 20
∞ 40
The variance 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = 𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) − [𝑬(𝑿)]𝟐 = ∫−∞ 𝒙𝟐 . 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 − [𝑬(𝑿)]𝟐 = ∫20 𝑥2 . (0.05) 𝑑𝑥 − (30)2
𝑥3 40 (𝟎.𝟎𝟓)×[403 − 203 ]
= (0.05) | | − (30)2 = − (30)2 ≈ 33.33
3 20 3
Definition: A continuous random variable 𝑋 is said to have an exponential distribution with parameter 𝜆, if its
pdf is given by,
𝝀𝒆−𝝀𝒙 𝑥 ≥ 0,
𝒇(𝒙) = {
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
where 𝝀 > 𝟎 is called the rate of the distribution.
If 𝑿 is the time till failure, the question asks for 𝑃(𝑋 > 5000):
∞ ∞ ∞
𝑃(𝑋 > 5000) = ∫𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝝀 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 𝒅𝒙 = − ∫𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎(−𝝀) 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 𝒅𝒙 = −| 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 | = −[0 − 𝒆−𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎𝝀 ] ≈ 0.59
5000
(b) Find the mean and standard deviation of the time till failure.
∞ ∞
𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒏, is, 𝝁 = ∫−∞ 𝒙. 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 = ∫0 𝑥. (𝝀𝒆−𝝀𝒙 ) 𝑑𝑥 Using Integration by parts,
Let 𝑢 = 𝑥 𝑑𝑣 = 𝝀 𝒆−𝝀𝒙
𝒅𝑢 = 𝑑𝑥 𝑣 = − 𝒆−𝝀𝒙
∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 1 ∞ 1 𝟏
∴ 𝝁 = ∫0 𝑥. (𝝀𝒆−𝝀𝒙 ) 𝑑𝑥 = − | 𝑥 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 | + ∫0 (𝒆−𝝀𝒙 ) 𝑑𝑥 = − | 𝑥 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 | − . | 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 | = − [0 − 1] =
0 0 𝝀 0 𝝀 𝝀
𝟏 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝝁 = = = 𝟗𝟒𝟗𝟏. 𝟐𝟕 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔
𝝀 𝟎.𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟑𝟔
As an exercise, you may wish to verify that by applying integration by parts twice,
∞
𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) = ∫−∞ 𝒙𝟐 . 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 = ⋯ = 𝟐/𝝀𝟐
𝟐 𝟏 𝟐
The variance of 𝑋 is, 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = 𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) − [𝑬(𝑿)]𝟐 = 𝟐 − 𝟐 = 𝟏/𝝀
𝝀 𝝀
24 𝟏 1 𝑥3 24 (12)2 (24)2
∴ 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = ∫0 𝒙𝟐 . (𝟐𝟒) 𝑑𝑥 − (12)2 = | | − = − (12)2 = 48
(24) 3 0 3
𝟏 𝟏
𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝒅𝒆𝒗𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 = √𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 = √𝝀𝟐 = 𝝀 = 𝟗𝟒𝟗𝟏. 𝟐𝟕 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔
(2) The lifetime T (years) of an electronic component is a continuous random variable with a probability density function
given by; 𝒇(𝒙) = 𝒆−𝒙 𝑥 ≥ 0,
Find the lifetime L which a typical component is 60% certain to exceed. If five components are sold to a manufacturer
find the probability that at least one of them will have a lifetime less than L years.