AN EMPIRICAL ASSESMENT OF CAUSES OF BUILDING

FAILURES IN LAGOS STATE

BY

AMEEN, MUHYDEEN GARBA

(09/30GB116)

JULY 2013
AN EMPIRICAL ASSESMENT OF CAUSES OF BUILDING
FAILURES IN LAGOS STATE

BY

AMEEN, MUHYDEEN GARBA (09/30GB116)

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN

ILORIN, NIGERIA

A Project Report Submitted to the Department of Civil

Engineering, University of Ilorin, in Partial Fulfillment of
the Requirement for the Award of Bachelor of
Engineering Degree in Civil Engineering

JULY 2013
 CERTIFICATION PAGE

This project has been read and approved as part of the requirement of the
department of civil engineering, University of Ilorin for the award of Bachelor
of Engineering (B. Eng.) degree in Civil Engineering.

________________ ________________
Dr. O.G. Okeola DATE
Project supervisor

________________ ________________
Prof. Y.A. JIMOH DATE
Head of department

________________ ________________
External Examiner DATE

iii
 DEDICATION

My Late Dad
(Alhaji Aminulahi Bamiduro)

iv
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My profound gratitude goes to Almighty Allah (S.A.W) the author and the finisher for giving me the
strength and wisdom to successfully complete the B.Eng. programme and also for His forth-coming
blessings.

My sincere appreciation goes to my supervisor Dr. O.G. Okeola for his supervisory guidance during
the course of this project and counseling in the last two session of my study in the University. May
Almighty Allah in his infinite mercies reward him abundantly. Amin.

A big appreciation goes to all my classmates for their words of encouragement and concern during
the course of this project and throughout my stay on campus. I cannot just imagine the care and love
in supporting me with prayer. You are all wonderful to me. I pray we all meet at the zenith.

My sincere gratitude also goes to my siblings for their moral and financial support, I pray that God
will always grant you favour in your entire endeavour. Amen.

Finally, I acknowledge all those who had one way or the other contribute to my success in life. God
will always be your strength.

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 QUOTES

The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands

in moment of comfort and convenience,
but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.

Nothing in the world is more dangerous

than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.

Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability

but comes through continuous struggle.
And so we must straighten our backs and work for our freedom.
A man can’t ride you unless your back is bent.

-Dr. Martin Luther King (jnr.)

“The Community of Man”

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 ABSTRACT
The incessant of building failures and collapses in the recent past has become a source of
national concern. News reports of such incidents are frequently reported in the country by
both the print and electronic media. This study was set out to empirically ascertain the
causes of such building failure and collapse with a view to proffering appropriate
recommendations to guide against future occurrence. Lagos State was chosen as the case
study considering its high frequency of occurrence of building collapse in the country.
Statistical approach was used in determining the prime cause of building failure in Lagos
State using the following statistical methods: Relative Importance Index (RII), Pearson
product Moment Coefficient of Correlation (r) and Linear Regression Analysis.

The study identified 7 causes of building collapse. These are: (1) poor materials &
workmanship; (2) faulty design/construction methodology; (3) and excessive loading; (4)
illegal conversion; (5) poor maintenance culture; (6) natural phenomenon; (7) negligence
and incompetence as the major causes of building collapse in Lagos State. From Pearson’s
correlation, poor quality materials and workmanship has a very high and consequential
effect followed by faulty design/construction methodology and excessive loading on
building collapse in Lagos state. Test of hypothesis reveals that of the three predominant
causes of building failure, only poor materials & workmanship and faulty
design/construction methodology are accepted as the active causes of building failure in
Lagos state. The linear regression model shows that for every 50 houses that collapse in
Lagos state poor materials & workmanship, faulty design/construction methodology and
excessive loadings will account for 22, 15 and 11 respectively.

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 TABLE OF CONTENT

Cover Page i

Tittle Page ii

Certification Page iii

Dedication iv

Acknowledgments v

Quotes vi

Abstract vii

Table of content viii

Tables’ xi

Figures xii

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study 1

1.2 Problem Identification 2
1.3 Justification of the Study 3
1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study 3
1.5 Scope and Limitation 3
1.6 Methodology 3
1.7 The Study Area 4

CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 6
2.2 Historical Review of Building Failure 7
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2.3 The Building Team 8
2.3.1 Owner or Developer 9
2.3.2 Architect 9
2.3.3 Structural Engineer 9
2.3.4 Mechanical and Electrical Engineer (M and E) 9
2.3.5 Quantity Surveyor (QS) 9
2.3.6 Contractor 10
2.3.7 Town Planners 10

2.4 Basic Building Requirements 10

2.5 Building Elements and their Functions 11

2.5.1 Foundations 11
2.5.2 Columns 12
2.5.3 Beams 12
2.5.4 Slabs 12
2.5.5 Walls 13

2.6 Theoretical Background of Analytical Tools 13

2.6.1 Regression Analysis 13
2.6.1.1 Linear Regression 15
2.6.1.2 Multiple Regression 17
2.6.2 Pearson Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation 18
2.6.2 Relative Importance Index 19
2.6.4 The Hypothesis Test 20

CHAPTER THREE STUDY METHODOLOGY

3.1 Field Study 22

3.2 Data Study 22
3.2.1 Relative Importance Index 25
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 3.2.2 Pearson Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation 25
3.2.3 Linear Regression Analysis 29

CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Factors Responsible for Building Collapse 32

4.2 Relationship between Causes of Building Failures and
Total no of Collapsed building 33
4.3 Test of Hypothesis 34

CHAPTER FIVE: RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Conclusion 35
5.2 Recommendation 35

REFERENCES 38

APPENDIX 40

x
 LIST OF TABLES

Table Description Page

2.1 Classification of Regression Analysis 15

3.1 Records of Collapsed Building and incident of Death in
Lagos State 23
3.2 Relative Importance of Individual Causes 25
3.3 Quantities needed for the computation of correlation btw
Total house collapse and PMW 27

3.4 Quantities needed for the computation of correlation btw

Total house collapse and FD/CM 27

3.5 Quantities needed for the computation of correlation btw

Total house collapse and EL 28

3.6 Analysis of Variance for PMW 29

3.7 Analysis of Variance for FD/CM 30
3.8 Analysis of Variance for FD/CM 30
4.1 Figures on building Collapse and Casualties 32
4.2 Showing records of casualties involved in collapsed building 33
A1 Incidence of building collapse in Lagos State. 41

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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Description Page

1.1 Map of metropolitan Lagos showing local government 4

1.2 Map of Nigeria showing Lagos State 5
2.1 Graph of simple linear regression 16
2.2 Graph of the probability density function of a t-distribution 21
3.1 Regression model between total No of collapse and PMW 30

3.2 Regression model between total No of collapse and FD/CM 30

3.3 Regression model between total No of collapse and EL 31

4.1 Collapsed Building for different month 33

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 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUNG OF THE STUDY

Building is essentially a space that protects man from the natural environment. These
structures serve as place of residence, work, worship, etc. or as means of transportation.
They are so essential to man just as air, water and food. It must possess adequate strength
and every member of structural system should be able to resist the applied loads under
service conditions without failure or collapse. Buildings through the ages have been an
important aspect of the socio-economic development of human beings. Buildings like all
structures are designed to support certain load without deforming excessively. The process
of building construction is constantly changing with the advent of new materials and
method of erection. The work involved in the design and construction stages of building are
largely that of selecting materials, components and structure which will meet the expected
building standards and aesthetic on economic basis. A high level of skill is needed in
designing and constructing buildings.

Collapse of building can occur to any kind of building but the casualty of multi-storey
buildings can be fatal. Building stability depends on the structural elements of the building
and these elements serves as the backbone of the whole building. Over the last 10 years the
incidence of building collapse in Nigeria has become alarming and does not show any sign of
abating with each collapse carries along with it damaging effects that cannot be easily
forgotten by the victims. Even though the occurrence of building failures are found to be
more prevalent in the urban centers of the country, cases of building collapse in the country
are found not to be limited to urban cities as they cut across cultural, ethnic and
geographical barriers in such a manner that their occurrence apparently reflects what can
be described as a general phenomenon (Ayedun et. al., 2012). In discussing the issue of
building collapse, distinction must be made between buildings which fail during construction
or within the service life and to those that fail after the service life, usually 25 years (Olusola,
et. al., 2011). It can be deduced that the collapse that causes the greatest loss is that which
occurs when a building has been in use for long a time or shortly after its construction (Oke,
2011).
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The Lagos state government identified the principal causes of collapse of building within
Lagos state metropolis as: deficient foundations, inadequate steel reinforcement, poor
material and workmanship and inexperience professionals, hasty construction, no soil test,
greed, poor supervision and non-adherence to the building codes, use of unskilled labour in
areas where technicality matters, poor materials, flooding, ignorance, lack of maintenance,
overloading, conflicts among professionals and tendency of some professionals to step into
some lucrative technical fields without the appropriate skill, corruption and tendency to
cheat (Ede, 2010). Building maintenance is becoming an increasingly important field of study
and it is even more important in developing countries. Thus building requires adequate and
effective maintenance to avoid cumulative decay and deterioration which may affect the
productivity of the occupants. The lack of maintenance often results in deterioration that
leads the building to the point of collapse or to it having to be demolished. It could be
suggested that unplanned maintenance can be avoided if building design takes account of
the need for careful and methodological planning, budgeting, monitoring and execution.
The aim of this project is to carrying out an empirical assessment of causes of building
failures in Nigeria from the perspective of the stakeholders who are directly involved in the
building industry and proffer solutions to the identified problems.

1.2 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

Every well-meaning engineering project must of necessity pass through several stages in the
course of its development including but not limited to conceptualization, planning, design,
construction and maintenance. Structural failures occur when one or more of these stages
of project development are either omitted, usurped by incompetent hands or completely
eliminated. Kingsley (2010) posited a preventable incidence cannot continue to traumatize
the public all the time. These incidents have brought to question the competency of building
contractors in the country. The menace also casts a slur on the competence of the nation’s
building community of architects, structural engineers and builders who are the
professionals responsible for designing and monitoring construction works at building sites
(Kingsley, 2010). These professionals are being criticized by the public because of the
recurring incidents of building collapse.

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1.3 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY

The need to provide shelter to man and his daily activities has always been an utmost
priority. Buildings are constructed to serve as shelter for man, his properties and other
activities hence must be properly planned, designed and erected to obtain desired
satisfaction from environment. Building design and construction have changed rapidly in
recent years and are now in a state of flux. However, recent events in Nigeria in places like
Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Enugu and Aba have seen these buildings as a growing cause of
death, loss of property and left many people injured. The increase in building failures has
necessitated the need to study the causes and putting forward necessary strategy to
prevent future collapse.

1.4 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The aim of this project is to carry out an empirical assessment of causes of building failures
in Nigeria from the perspective of the stakeholders who are directly involved in the building
industry. The specific objectives to accomplish the aim are:

 To ascertain the causes of failures in building structures.

 To also monitor the trend of casualties involved in building collapse.

 To identify short and long term measures to reduce the menace of building failures.

1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of study is to carry out an empirical analysis of building collapse in Nigeria.
Nigeria being a very large entity, the study will therefore be limited to Lagos metropolis.

1.6 METHODOLOGY

This involves the field and desk studies. The field study encompasses sourcing of data on
collapsed building from previous study and overview of various journals and past projects.
The desk study adopts the use of statistical tools in determining the cause of building failure
in Lagos State. Analysis of the data obtained using the following statistical methods: Relative
Importance Index (RII), Pearson Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation (r) and Linear
Regression Analysis.
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1.7 THE STUDY AREA

According to the National population commission (2006), Lagos is the economic hub of
Nigeria and the largest city in Africa with a population of about 9 million. It is currently the
7th largest city in the world, and with current annual growth rates of about 6%-8% which
amount up to 600,000 person per annum or 1,644 people daily, it is projected to become
the 3rd largest city in the world by 2015 (US Census Bureau, 2006). It was the former capital
city of Nigeria before it was replaced with Abuja on 12th December, 1991 but remains the
commercial and industrial nerve of the country.

Lagos was originally founded as a trading port in 17th century by the Portuguese and
became colonial administrative headquarters of the newly formed Nigeria in 1914 and
remains the capital even after independence in 1960 until 1991 when a new federal capital
territory was established in Abuja. It is the smallest of administrative states in the country in
terms of land area occupying only 3.577sq km of mostly coastal plains. The state is
surrounded by lagoons which make up about 22% of the state’s land mass. Metropolitan
Lagos itself account for only 37% of the state’s land area but is occupied by than 80% of the
state’s population, such that population densities in the state reaches up to 20,000 person
per sq km (Lagos State Government, 2011). Lagos state has 16 Local Government Councils
and 57 Local Government Development Areas (Figures 1.1 and 1.2 respectively).

Figure 1.1 Map of Metropolitan Lagos showing some of the Local Government Areas
Source: Ayedun, et. al., (2012).

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Figure: 1. 2 Map of Nigeria showing Lagos State
Source: Olajuyigbe, et. al., (2012).

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 INTRODUCTION

Structural failures occur all over the world and usually lead to damage of properties and loss
of lives. It was asserted that construction workers are three times more likely to be killed
and twice as likely to be injured as workers in other occupation especially during
construction (Okeola, 2009). Building is essentially a space that is protected from the natural
environment and is constructed for a specific usage. A building structure does this by
carrying the load imposed on it and transferring them safely unto the foundation and hence
the ground. Generally, structures do fail over time as a result of human factors such as
negligence, design flaws, ageing, material fatigue, extreme operational and environmental
conditions, accidents, terrorist attacks and natural hazards.

Building failure should not be taken to mean only a structural failure but is also include non-
performance with the requirements expected of it. Failures in building can be defined as a
defective construction by other factors such as structural, functional, material and
environmental resulting in a short fall in performance occurring at any time in the life of the
product, element or dwelling in which it occurs (Olusola, et. al., 2011). The examples of
building failure include defects such as cracks in walls, deflection and overturning of beam,
etc. The majority of these failures arise during construction period or after while others are
due to natural phenomena. Basically, there are three forms of collapse as stated in Olusola,
et. al., (2011): partial collapse, progressive collapse, total and sudden collapse.

Structural failure is caused by imposition of loads in excess of the capacity of structural

components which result in over-stressing (Richardson, 1991). Overstressing is indicated by
evident of distortion, deflection, shear and fracture. If a structure is well designed and
constructed in accordance with the design principles, overstressing may indicate some other
inadequacy such as use of an unsuitable material. Structural failure is taken to have
occurred when a designed and constructed structure fail to perform the function they are
meant for (Olusola, et. al., 2011). Structures are meant for load resisting, be imposed, dead,

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or wind etc. at whatever condition of exposure which they might be designed for. Whenever
these are lacking, failure will creep into such building.

Olusola, et. al., (2011) emphasize factors that influence building collapse as technical and
non-technical. Generally, buildings like any other property are prone to deterioration from
wear and tear over time. It follows therefore that no structure can reasonably be expected
to last forever. Hence the need for adequate design work by qualified professionals, a
conscious and diligent quality control checks at periodic intervals during construction works
and adequate maintenance of the structure are required to prolong the life span.

2.2 HISTORICAL REVIEW OF BUILDING FAILURE

Oloyede et. al., (2010) ascertain the causes of building failure from the public point view and
can be summarized under improper design, incompetent contractor, faulty construction
methodology, use of substandard materials and equipment; inadequate supervision or
inspection/monitoring, economic pressures, incompetent conversion, change of use of
buildings, poor maintenance culture. In his analysis, non-compliance with specifications,
employment of incompetent contractor and use of substandard materials and equipment
were the three prominent causes of building collapses witnessed in Nigeria.

Fagbenle and Oluwunmi (2010) in their surveyed of a total of 150 contractors as well as 150
clients of completed and on-going buildings through a well-structured questionnaire in six
geo-political regions of Nigeria who were randomly selected from the study area. The six
geo-political regions of the country and the states covered are: Southwest (Lagos),
Southeast (Abia), South-south (Port Harcourt), Northwest (Sokoto), Northeast (Borno) and
the North Central (Benue). From their finding, it was concluded that 70% of the cases of
reported building collapse from 1980 to 2010 occurred in the private setting which is largely
domiciled by the informal sector. It further showed that 23% and 6.7% of the reported cases
occurred in public and corporate organizations respectively. Also, the level of compliance
with the approval of building plans before construction commencement is very low. This
could be hinged on the ineffective monitoring mechanism put in place by the relevant
government agencies and the low level of awareness of the existing Building and Planning
Regulations by clients and contractors. It must be stressed that apart from the economic

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waste from building collapse, the occasional loss of lives is having devastating effects on the
dwellers and the progress of the nation. The study later concluded by requesting concerned
governmental agencies to be proactive in their duties in order to curb or reduce the
menace.

Ayedun et. al., (2012) carried out the research with the aid of a well-structured
questionnaire administered to professionals in the built environment as well as landlords
and contractors. The study also encompasses the use of historical data of collapsed building
in Lagos state and the data were analysed using descriptive and analytical statistical tools.
From their analysis, the prominent causes of building failure arise from poor workmanship
by contractors, use of sub-standard materials, illegal conversion of existing building as well
as structural defect.

Ojelabi (2011) conducted a study on causes of building failure using well-structured

questionnaire to the basic building team in Ilorin as well as collection of data from building
professionals, journals and national dallies. Result from the questionnaire reveal the client’s
contribution to the menace in the following ways, conversion of existing building (addition
of more floors or the intended usage of building), lack of maintenance and ignorance. The
finding reveals that improper presentation of architectural drawing and use of sub-standard
materials result in building failure. Poor workmanship attributed to 89% of causes of failure.
Inadequate supervision was taken as a cause of failure by the order of 85%, lack of
maintenance by 83% and 74% of the respondents supported that lack of fund has been a
cause of failure in buildings.

2.3 The Building Team

Building project as a whole is made up of many fragmented units with different

professionals performing different functions because of the diversity and complexity involve
in building operation. They share some sort of feedback relationship because the work of
each professional group is depended or related to the other and are classified as follows
(Okeola, 2012):

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2.3.1 Owner or Developer

In business term, this is known as the client. The client being referred to as the individual or
a corporate body e.g. banks, institutions, governments (Federal, State, and Local) etc. that
want to develop building. It is the responsibility of the client to secure the services of
qualified professionals: the architects, structural, mechanical and electrical engineers. On
upon the recommendation of tender by the architect or surveyor can sign a contract with a
contractor.

2.3.2 Architect

This is the man who in front of law has full right to act as design procedure by interpreting
the client requirement into specific design and generally take over the task of seeing that
they are carried to a logical conclusion. Right from takeoff of the project he is responsible to
act and supervise on behalf of the client. He can appoint clerk of works for the owner whose
main responsibility is to ensure compliance with design and material specification.

2.3.3 Structural Engineers

The engineer carries out structural analysis and design of every member of building part
depending on scope and complexity. They are usually private consultant commission by the
client or architect for the project.

2.3.4 Mechanical and Electrical Engineer (M&E)

The engineer is responsible for the design of electrical and mechanical services. The design
should be completed with details and specification that are readily interpreted by the
contractor. They are also private consultants.

2.3.5 Quality Surveyor (QS)

The QS carry out quantities of all item of work along with cost implication. They prepare the
bill of quantity (BOQ) used in tendering by interested contractors. They can be engaged by
both the client and contractor depending on the scope of work.

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2.3.6 Contractor

The contractor carries out interpretation and turns the architect design into reality. They
can engage the services of subcontractor and specialist to contribute to the successful
execution of the project.

2.3.7 Town planners

The officers in local authority study the drawings to ascertain it is in accordance with the
building bye-laws. They check the Architects drawings to be sure that area occupied by the
building is not more than the percentage of the whole plot allowed for, the area of the
window space in the building to the area of the space of the floor and ensure it is not less
than that allowed for. The local authority also checks the structural design and ensures the
building has enough stability to avoid collapsing.

2.4 BASIC BUILDING REQUIREMENTS

The basic requirements that a building must satisfy include that each and every member of
a structural system should be able to resist without failure or collapse the applied loads
under the service conditions (Fakere, et. al., 2012). In other words, it must possess adequate
strength. This demands that the materials of the structure must be adequate to resist the
stresses generated by the loads. The shape and size of the structure must also be adequate.
The components of the structure should be able to resist deformation under loading
conditions. Deformation implies a change in size and shape when a body is subjected to
stress. This means that the component should possess adequate stiffness. Thus the stiffness
of a beam or column is a measure of its resistance to bending or buckling.

All the structural members of the building must be firm, otherwise the whole structure is
assumed to be unstable. Structural stability is needed to maintain shape since it is the ability
of a structure to retain under load, its original state of equilibrium. It can mean anything
from resistance to sliding overturning, partial or complete collapse. Any phenomenon that
can alter the load carrying behaviour of a structure, if not properly taken care of can lead to
instability; a condition in which the support reaction is less than applied load. Thus to
ensure stability, loads must be balanced by reactions and the moments due to loads must
be balanced by the moments due to reactions.
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Any building that cannot withstand the load applied upon it will show signs of distress which
may lead to failure and invariably total collapse. The possibility of building collapse should
not be underestimated. Its occurrence is usually accompanied by loss of properties and
lives. A building may collapse when one or more of its essential components fail. When
building collapses, professional bodies such as Architects’ Registration Council of Nigeria
(ARCON), Council for the Registration of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN) and even
Governments usually set up panels of enquiry to determine the immediate and remote
causes and recommend measures to prevent future occurrence.

2.5 BUILDING ELEMENTS AND THEIR FUNCTIONS

Most buildings are composed of structural elements, failure of which could lead to collapse
of the building. They include: foundations, columns, beams, slabs, roof, load bearing
partition walls and complex mixture of constructional units and materials. These failures or
defects will now be examined in the various structural elements.

2.5.1 FOUNDATION

The foundation of a structure is that part of a structure in direct contact with the soil and
transmits the load of the structure to the ground. There are different types of foundation:

i. Pad foundation: - it is the most used when the soil is relatively strong or when the
column loads are relatively light. They are usually square or rectangular on plan of
uniform thickness and generally of reinforced concrete (Curtin, et. al., 2006).

ii. Strip foundation: - Strip footings are commonly used for the foundations to load-
bearing walls. They are also used when the pad foundations for a number of columns
in line are so closely spaced that the distance between the pads is approximately equal
to the length of the side of the pads. It is usually more economic and faster to excavate
and cast concrete in one long strip, than as a series of closely spaced isolated pads
(Curtin, et. al., 2006).

iii. Raft foundation: - They are required on soils of low bearing capacities or where
structural columns are so close in both directions. They are useful in reducing
differential settlement on variable soils.

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 iv. Piled foundation: - Piles are used when the ground at foundation level is too weak to
support any of the previously described foundation types. Piles are also used on sites
where soils are particularly affected by seasonal changes, to transfer the structural
loads below the level of such influence (Curtin, et. al., 2006).

2.5.2 COLUMN

Columns are erected vertically. Short plain concrete columns are capable of carrying axial
load because the stresses produced are compressive only and the short length avoid any
sideways bow or buckle. Columns are reinforced with longitudinal bars to increase their load
carrying capacity. Columns are often slender and there is introduction of bending into
column with a consequent tensile stress. Concrete columns therefore need to be reinforced
to avoid unsightly cracking or a collapse condition. Columns are usually struts and therefore
very strong element of the structure. The danger failure signals is crushing and spalling of
concrete.

2.5.3 BEAMS

Beams are most susceptible to all kinds of stress than other structural elements. The loads
on beams give rise to tensile, compressive and shear stresses. Loading on a beam may be a
single or a number of point loads or otherwise be equally distribution along its length or any
combination to these perhaps with lateral or dynamic loading vibration. In any event
vertical-load results in vertical sag or deflection and it is the magnitude and disposition of
the loading which determines the maximum deflection of the beam.

2.5.4 SLABS

Slabs may consist of precast units or in-situ concrete cast monolithically with the supporting
beams. The behaviour of slabs under load in respect of end condition and over intermediate
supports is similar to that of beams. A slab under consideration in the ratio of breadth may
span in one way or in two ways usually perpendicular to each other. Slabs need to be
reinforced and a minimum amount of reinforcement should be provided at right angles to
the main reinforcement and is described as secondary steel.

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2.5.5 WALLS

This element of a building is constructed of materials like sand-crete block, clay material or
wood. The common maintenance problems are spalling, that is breaking of fragment on the
wall surface; cracking and decay of stone or sand-crete wall. A wall supporting a vertical
load acts as a column very wide in one direction compared with the dimension in the other
direction is referred to as ‘load bearing wall’ and in general should be designed similarly to a
column as regards compressive stress and resistance to buckling. A reinforced concrete wall
is generally required to have a specified degree of fire-resistance of at least two hours. A
reasonable degree of thermal insulation is also generally required.

2.6 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND OF THE ANALYTICAL TOOLS.

There are two main branches of statistics: descriptive and inferential. Descriptive statistics is
used to say something about a set of information that has been collected only. Inferential
statistics is used to make predictions or comparisons about larger group (a population) using
information gathered about a small part of that population. Thus, inferential statistics
involves generalizing beyond the data. There are other distinctions among data types such
as discrete, measured, numerical or categorical.

This project involves treating the obtained data with the aid of some statistical tools in
making a conclusion on the absolute cause of building failure in Nigeria. The following
statistical tools are adopted:

I. Regression Analysis
II. Pearson Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation
III. Relative Importance Index

2.6.1 Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating functional

relationships among variables. The relationship is expressed in the form of an equation or a
model connecting the response or dependent variable and one or more explanatory or
predictor variables. Response variable are denote by Y and the set of predictor variables by
X 1 , X 2 ,... X P where p denotes the number of predictor variables. The true relationship

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between Y and X 1 , X 2 ,... X P , can be approximated by the regression model as shown in Eqt.
2.1.

Y  f  X 1 , X 2 ... X P   (Eqn 2.1)

Where  is assumed to be a random error representing the discrepancy in the

approximation. It accounts for the failure of the model to fit the data exactly. The function
f  X 1 , X 2 ... X P  describes the relationship between Y and  X 1 , X 2 ... X P  . An example is the
linear regression model shown in Eqt. 2.2.

Y   0   1 X 1   2 X 2  ...   P X P   (Eqn 2.2)

Where  0 ,  1 ,  2 ,  P the regression parameters or coefficient are the unknown constants

to be determined from the data. The predictor or explanatory variables are also called by
other names such as independent variables, covariates, regressors, factors, and carriers
(Murray and Larry, 2008). Regression analysis has numerous areas of applications in
economics, finance, business, law, meteorology, medicine, biology, chemistry, engineering,
physics, education, sports, history, sociology, and psychology. Regression analysis is one of
the most widely used statistical tools because it provides simple methods for establishing a
functional relationship among variables. It has extensive applications in many subject areas.
The regression analysis follows the following steps (Samprit and Hadi, 2006)

i. Statement of the problem

ii. Selection of potentially relevant variables
iii. Data collection
iv. Model specification
v. Choice of fitting method
vi. Model fitting
vii. Model validation and criticism
viii. Using the chosen model(s) for the solution of the problem.

There are various types of regression analysis Depending on the types of data as shown in
Table 2.1.

- 14 -
Table 2.1 Various Classification of Regression Analysis
Types of Regression Conditions
Univariate Only one quantitative response variable

Multivariate Two or more quantitative response

variables

Simple Only one predictor variable

Multiple Two or more predictor variables.

Linear All parameters enter the equation linearly,

possibly after transformation of the data.

Non linear The relationship between the response

and some of the predictors is nonlinear or
some of the parameters appear
nonlinearly, but no transformation is
possible to make the parameters appear
linearly.

Analysis of variance All predictors are qualitative variables.

Analysis of covariance Some predictors are quantitative variables

and others are qualitative variables.

Logistic The response variable is qualitative

Source: (Samprit and Hadi, 2006)

2.6.1.1 Linear Regression

Linear regression is an approach to model the relationship between a scalar dependent

variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted x . The case of one explanatory
variable is called simple linear regression as show in Figure 2.1. For more than one
explanatory variable, it is called multiple linear regressions.

- 15 -
Figure 2.1 Example of simple linear regression which has one independent variable

In linear regression, data is modeled using linear predictor functions and unknown model
parameters are estimated from the data. Such models are called linear models. Most
commonly, linear regression refers to a model in which the conditional mean of y given the
value of x is an affine function of x . Linear regression could refer to a model in which the
median or some other quantile of the conditional distribution of y given x is expressed as
a linear function of x . Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on the
conditional probability distribution of y given x , rather than on the joint probability
distribution of y and x which is the domain of multivariate analysis.

Linear regression was the first type of regression analysis to be studied rigorously and to be
used extensively in practical applications. This is because models which depend linearly on
their unknown parameters are easier to fit than models which are non-linearly related to
their parameters and because the statistical properties of the resulting estimators are easier
to determine. Linear regression has many practical uses. Most applications fall into one of
the following two broad categories (Abdulmalik, 2012):

 If the goal is prediction or forecasting, linear regression can be used to fit a predictive
model to an observed data set of y and x values. After developing such a model, if
an additional value of x is then given without its accompanying value of y , the fitted
model can be used to make a prediction of the value of y .

- 16 -
  Given a variable y and a number of variables x1 ,..., x P that may be related to y ,
linear regression analysis can be applied to quantify the strength of the relationship
between y and the x j , to assess which x j , may have no relationship with y at all,

and to identify which subsets of the x j , contain redundant information about y .

2.6.1.2 Multiple Linear Regression

Multiple linear regression is used to model the relationship between two or more
explanatory variables and a response variable by fitting a linear equation to observed data.
Every value of the independent variables x is associated with a value of the dependent
variable y . The population regression line for p explanatory variables x1 , x 2 ,...x p is defined

as

 y   0   1 x1   2 x 2  ...   P x P   (Eqn 2.3)

y1   0   1xi1   2 xi1  ... pxip   for i  1,2,...n (Eqn 2.4)

Where  0 is the constant term and  1 to  p are the coefficients relating the p

explanatory variables to the variables of interest. Hence multiple linear regression can be
seen as an extension of simple linear regression where there are p explanatory variables or
a special case of multiple linear regression where p  1 (Samprit and Hadi, 2006).

In the least square model, the best fitting line for the observed data is calculated by
minimizing the sum of the squares of the vertical deviations from each data point to the line
(if a point lies on the fitted line exactly, then its vertical deviation is 0). The values fit by the
equation y1   0   1xi1   2 xi1  ... pxip are denoted by ŷ and the residuals ei are equal

to y1  yˆ , the difference between the observed and fitted values. The sum of the residuals is

equal to zero. The variance  2 may be estimated with the equation 2.5 known as the
mean-squared error.

 
2 e i
2

(Eqn 2.5)
n  p 1

- 17 -
2.6.2 Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient

The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient is a measure of the correlation (linear

dependence) between two variables X and Y, giving a value between +1 and −1 inclusive. It
is widely used in the sciences as a measure of the strength of linear dependence between
two variables. It was developed by Karl Pearson from a related idea introduced by Francis
Galton in the 1880s. Pearson's correlation coefficient between two variables is defined as
the covariance of the two variables divided by the product of their standard deviations. The
form of the definition involves a "product moment", that is, the mean (the first moment
about the origin) of the product of the mean-adjusted random variables; hence the modifier
product-moment in the name.

For a population

Pearson's correlation coefficient when applied to a population is commonly represented by

the Greek letter ρ (rho) and may be referred to as the population correlation coefficient or
the population Pearson correlation coefficient. The formula for ρ is:

cov( X , Y ) E ( X   X )(Y   Y )
 X ,Y   (Eqn 2.6)
 XY  XY

For a sample

Pearson's correlation coefficient when applied to a sample is commonly represented by the

letter r and may be referred to as the sample correlation coefficient or the sample Pearson
correlation coefficient. Pearson (r) can be obtained by substituting estimates of the
covariance and variances based on a sample into the formula above. That formula for r is
given as follow (Samprit and Hadi 2006):

 X  X Yi  Y 
n
i 1
r (Eqn 2.7)
i

 X   Y  Y 
n 2 n 2
i 1 i X i 1 i

- 18 -
An equivalent expression gives the correlation coefficient as the mean of the products of the
standard scores. Based on a sample of paired data (Xi, Yi), the sample Pearson correlation
coefficient is (Samprit and Hadi 2006):

1 n  X i  X  Yi  Y 
r 
n  1 i 1  S X

 S 
 (Eqn 2.8)
 Y 

Xi  X
Where , X , and S X are the standard score, sample mean, and sample standard
SX

deviation respectively.

2.6.3 Relative Importance Index (RII)

Relative importance index refers to the quantification of an individual regressors

contribution to a multiple regression model. Assessment of relative importance in linear
models is simple as long as all regressors are uncorrelated, each regressors contribution is
just the R 2 from univariate regression, and all univariate R 2 -values add up to the full
model R 2 . In sciences with predominance of observational data, regressors are typically
correlated so that it is no longer straightforward to break down model R2 into shares from
the individual regressors.

Achen (1982) discussed three different meanings of variable importance. Theoretical

importance refers to the change in the criterion based on a given change in the predictor
variable which can be measured using the regression coefficient. Level importance refers to
the increase in the mean criterion score that is contributed by the predictor, which
corresponds to the product of a variable’s mean and its unstandardized regression
coefficient. Finally, dispersion importance refers to the amount of the criterion variance
explained by the regression equation that is attributable to each predictor variable. This is
the interpretation of importance that most often corresponds to measures of importance in
the behavioral sciences when the explanatory aspects of regression analysis are of interest.

To draw conclusions about the relative importance of predictors, researchers often examine
the regression coefficients or the zero-order correlations with the criterion. When
predictors are uncorrelated, zero-order correlations and standardized regression

- 19 -
coefficients are equivalent. The squares of these indices sum to R2, so the relative
importance of each variable can be expressed as the proportion of predictable variance for
which it accounts. Correlations represent the unique contribution of each predictor by itself,
whereas regression coefficients represent the incremental contribution of each predictor
when combined with all remaining predictors (Johnson and LeBreton, 2004).

2.6.4 The Hypothesis Test

Oftentimes there is need to determine whether a claim is true or false. Such a claim is called
a hypothesis. A more formal way of measuring the usefulness of X as a predictor of Y is to
conduct a test of hypothesis about the regression parameter  1 . However, the

hypothesis  1  0 means that there is no linear relationship between Y and X . For every
fixed value of X ,  are assumed to be independent random quantities normally distributed
with mean zero and a common variance σ2

Null hypothesis

This is a specific hypothesis to be tested in an experiment. The null hypothesis is usually

labeled H 0 .

Alternative hypothesis

This is hypothesis that is different from the null hypothesis which we usually want to show is
true thereby showing that the null hypothesis is false. The alternative hypothesis is usually
labeled H 1 . If the alternative involves showing that some value is greater than or less than a
number, there is some value c that separates the null hypothesis rejection region from the
fail to reject region. This value is known as the critical value. The null hypothesis is tested
through the following procedure (Samprit and Hadi, 2006):
1. Determine the null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis.
2. Pick an appropriate sample.
3.Use measurements from the sample to determine the likelihood of the null
hypothesis.

Under the normal assumption, an appropriate test statistic for testing the null hypothesis
H 0 :  1  0 against the alternative H 1 :  1  0 is the t-test. The test is carried out by

- 20 -
comparing this observed value with the appropriate critical value obtained from the t-table
which is t(n- 2, ) where  is a specified significance level. Accordingly, H 0 is to be rejected
2

at the significance level  if

t 1  t n- 2,  (Eqn 2.9)

2

Where t 1 denotes the absolute value of t 1 . A criterion equivalent to that in equation 2.9 is

to compare the p -value for the t-test with  and reject H 0 if

p t1    (Eqn 2.10)

Where p( t 1 ) , called the p -value. Figure 2.2 is a graph of the density function of a t-
distribution. The p-value is the sum of the two shaded areas under the curve. The p -value
is usually computed and supplied as part of the regression output by statistical packages.

Figure 2.2: A graph of the probability density function of a t-distribution

(Source: Samprit and Hadi, 2006)

- 21 -
 CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY
3.1 Field Study

Analysis of past documents (secondary data) was adopted as the research instruments in
gathering data on various incidence of building collapse in the Lagos State. The data were
sourced from previous studies of Kingsley, 2010; Windapo and Rotimi, 2012 and Ayedun, et.
al., 2012. All the available incidences of building collapse as at the date of analysis of the
data were included in the historical data (Appendix, Table A1). Majorly the field study
involves the following:

 Sourcing for data from previous studies.

 Overview of various journals and past projects.
The following parameters were considered as the basis of the findings:
1. Name of the building.
2. Type of the building.
3. Purpose of the building (commercial, residential, educational or religious).
4. Date of collapse.
5. Location of the building.
6. Major cause of the collapse.
7. Calamities (deaths and injuries).

3.2 Desk Study

Analyses of the data in Appendix Table A1 within the period of 1974 to 2012 were used in
the following statistical approach: Relative Importance Index (RII), Pearson Product Moment
Coefficient of Correlation (r) and Linear Regression Analysis. Table 3.1 presents the building
collapse as well as the number of casualties involved.

- 22 -
Table 3.1: Records of collapsed buildings and incident of death in Lagos State
TOTAL EL FD/CM PMW IC PMC NP NI
YEAR Collapse Death No of Death No of Death No of Death No of Death No of Death No of Death No of Death
collapse Record collapse Record collapse Record collapse Record collapse Record collapse Record collapse Record
1974-1978 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1979-1983 4 14 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 0 0
1984-1988 11 48 5 24 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 19
1989-1993 6 22 1 0 3 20 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
1994-1998 12 55 0 0 2 19 7 28 1 7 0 0 1 0 1 1
1999-2003 36 178 4 5 11 36 10 37 1 0 2 0 7 95 1 5
2004-2008 25 9 4 1 4 0 12 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 7
2009-2013 3 8 1 3 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 98 334 15 33 23 76 33 71 3 7 5 2 13 113 6 32
PERCENTAGE(%) 15.31 9.88 23.47 22.75 33.7 21.86 3.1 2.1 5.1 0.6 13.27 33.8 6.12 9.6
RII 3rd 4th 2nd 2nd 1st 3rd 7th 6th 5th 7th 4th 1st 6th 5th

EL= Excessive Loading, FD/CM= Faulty Design/Construction Methodology, PMW= Poor quality Materials and Workmanship,
IC= Illegal Conversion, PMC= Poor Maintenance Culture, NP= Natural Phenomenon, NI= Negligence and Incompetence

Building failures have been attributed to so many factors ranging from the use of
substandard materials, poor workmanship, low quality of blocks, concrete and other factors,
however seven factors that cause building collapses were adopted and they are:
1. Excessive Loading.
2. Faulty Design/Construction Methodology.
3. Poor quality Materials & Workmanship.
4. Illegal Conversion.
5. Poor Maintenance Culture.
6. Natural Phenomenon.
7. Negligence and Incompetence.

1. Excessive loading
This can occur during the design stage whereby the structural members are under designed
thereby access to over loading. A building which might have been designed and constructed
as residential might be converted into a school or a supermarket required large free space
or sometimes, more floors may be added thereby leading to overloading the existing
foundation.

- 23 -
2. Faulty design/construction methodology
These include errors in concept, assessment of loading, calculation errors, connection
details, inability to visualize the mode of construction maintainability, misuse of computer
software and detailing errors. Design errors can result in a collapse but often times failure
due to design errors are easily traceable when not compounded by construction errors.
Building collapse when structural drawings are based on false assumptions of soil strength,
they can also collapse as a result of faulty structural details.

3. Poor quality of materials &workmanship

The uses of poor building material specifications have been possible root causes of collapse.
In buildings, substandard material especially reinforcement rods, steel and cement
contribute immensely to failure of buildings. Good building constructions are enhanced by
materials of good quality. Proper handling and storage must be given to building materials.
Materials specifications must relate exactly to the intended construction and must be of
adequate standard. Specifications are to prescribe what materials should be used and
where there is a deviation, failure, that is, building collapse should be expected

4. Illegal conversion
During construction, many contractors either on the directive of the client or in a bid to cut
corners and maximize profit, alter approved building plans without corresponding
amendment to structural drawings to the detriment of the structure.

5. Poor maintenance culture

Generally, less attention is paid to maintenance in Nigeria. Normally, the maintenance of a
building should start from the very time excavation is dug. For instance, if the foundation
excavation shears before or after placement of concrete, it must be cleared and maintained
because earth impurities impair the strength of concrete.

6. Natural phenomenon
One of the major natural factors that result into building collapse is rainfall; others may
include temperature, pressure, etc. When there is a heavy downpour of rain, there is a
possibility that one or more buildings (completed or uncompleted), somewhere, would

- 24 -
carve in. The fact remain that this is a natural factor that cannot be stopped, buildings
therefore need to be constructed adequately bearing in mind such uncontrollable factors.

7. Negligence and incompetence

This is experienced on the part of the professionals involved in the construction process.
Building fails through negligence and ignorance. Ignorance has to do with when
incompetent personnel are in charge of design, construction or inspection. One of the major
areas of negligence is in specification writing where that of a past project is adopted without
cross checking.

3.2.1 Relative Importance Index (RII)

Relative importance index was adopted for relative importance of various possible causes of
building failures. This is based on quantifying the total numbers of collapsed caused by
individual factors causing building collapses as shown in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2 Relative importance of individual causes

Causes No of RII
collapse
EL 15 3rd
FD/CM 23 2nd
PMW 33 1st
IC 3 7th
PMC 5 6th
NP 13 4th
NI 6 5th

3.2.2 Pearson Product Moment Coefficient of Correlation (r)

Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation (r) was used to assess the causal
relationship between building collapse and its cause based on the causes that have the
highest relative importance index. The formulas used are (Murray and Larry, 2008):

n n
y x
i 1 i 1
y ; x ; (Eqn 3.1)
n n

 y 
n
2
 y
(Eqn 3.2)
i
i 1
S 
n 1
y

- 25 -
  x 
n
2
 x
S  i1
i
(Eqn 3.3)
n 1
x

1 n  x i  x  y i  y  (Eqn 3.4)
r 
n 1
 
 S

 S


i 1  X  Y 

r 
 i 1
n
x i  x  y i  y  (Eqn 3.5)

n
i 1
x i  x  2

n
i 1
y i  y  2

Where:

S y  Standard Deviation of y
S x  Standard Deviation of x
x  Causes of building collapse
x  Average number of causes of building collapse
y  Number of collapsed building
r  Correlation
y  Average number of collapsed building
n  Number of classes (interval of 5 years)

Applying equation 3.1 the respective y mean and x mean were calculated as
shown, x1 , x 2 and x3 (Eqn 3.6) representing the mean of the three predominant causes of
building failure as obtained from the relative importance index:
n
n n
y 98  x 33  x 23
y i 1
  12.25 x1  i 1
  4.13 ; x2  i 1
  2.88
n 8 n 8 n 8
n
 x 15
x3  i 1
  1.88 (Eqn 3.6)
n 8

- 26 -
Table 3.3: Quantities needed for the computation of correlation coefficient between the total house collapse
Y and poor materials and workmanship x1

i yi xi y x ( y i  y ) ( x i  x ) ( y i  y ) 2 ( x i  x ) 2 ( yi  y)(xi  x)

1 1 1 12.5 4.13 -11.5 -3.13 132.25 9.7969 35.995

2 4 0 12.5 4.13 -8.5 -4.13 72.25 17.0569 35.105
3 11 0 12.5 4.13 -1.5 -4.13 2.25 17.0569 6.195
4 6 1 12.5 4.13 -6.5 -3.13 42.25 9.7969 20.345
5 12 7 12.5 4.13 -0.5 2.87 0.25 8.2369 -1.435
6 36 10 12.5 4.13 23.5 5.87 552.25 34.4569 137.945
7 25 12 12.5 4.13 12.5 7.87 156.25 61.9369 98.375
8 3 2 12.5 4.13 -9.5 -2.13 90.25 4.5369 20.235

 98 33 -2 -0.04 1048 162.8752 352.76

Table 3.4: Quantities needed for the computation of correlation coefficient between the total house collapse
Y and faulty design/construction methodology x 2

i yi xi y x ( y i  y ) ( x i  x ) ( yi  y) ( x i  x )
2 2
( yi  y)(xi  x)
1 1 0 12.5 2.88 -11.5 -2.88 132.25 8.2944 33.12
2 4 2 12.5 2.88 -8.5 -0.88 72.25 0.7744 7.48
3 11 1 12.5 2.88 -1.5 -1.88 2.25 3.5344 2.82
4 6 3 12.5 2.88 -6.5 0.12 42.25 0.0144 -0.78
5 12 2 12.5 2.88 -0.5 -0.88 0.25 0.7744 0.44
6 36 11 12.5 2.88 23.5 8.12 552.25 65.9344 190.82
7 25 4 12.5 2.88 12.5 1.12 156.25 1.2544 14
8 3 0 12.5 2.88 -9.5 -2.88 90.25 8.2944 27.36

 98 23 -2 -0.04 1048 88.8752 275.26

- 27 -
Table 3.5: Quantities needed for the computation of correlation coefficient between the total house collapse
Y and excessive loading x3

i yi xi y x ( y i  y ) ( x i  x )( y i  y ) 2 ( x i  x ) 2 ( yi  y)(xi  x)
1 1 0 12.5 1.88 -11.5 -1.88 132.25 3.5344 21.62
2 4 0 12.5 1.88 -8.5 -1.88 72.25 3.5344 15.98
3 11 5 12.5 1.88 -1.5 3.12 2.25 9.7344 -4.68
4 6 1 12.5 1.88 -6.5 -0.88 42.25 0.7744 5.72
5 12 0 12.5 1.88 -0.5 -1.88 0.25 3.5344 0.94
6 36 4 12.5 1.88 23.5 2.12 552.25 4.4944 49.82
7 25 4 12.5 1.88 12.5 2.12 156.25 4.4944 26.5
8 3 1 12.5 1.88 -9.5 -0.88 90.25 0.7744 8.36

 98 15 -2 -0.04 1048 30.8752 124.26

Applying equations 3.2 through 3.4, the Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation
(r) were calculated thus:

r1  0.85
r2  0.90
r3  0.69

 1  Cor (Y , X )  1 (Eqn 3.7)

This properties (equation 3.7) makes the Cor (Y, X ) a useful quantity for measuring both the
direction and the strength of the relationship between Y and X . The magnitude of
Cor (Y, X ) measures the strength of the linear relationship between Y and X . The closer
Cor (Y, X ) is to 1 or -1, the stronger is the relationship between Y and X . The sign
of Cor (Y, X ) indicates the direction of the relationship between Y and X . That is, Cor (Y, X ) >
0 implies that Y and X are positively related. Conversely, Cor (Y, X ) < 0, implies that

Y and X are negatively related. From the calculations, it shows that r2 has a very strong

relationship between Y and X followed closely by r1 and then r3 .

- 28 -
3.2.3 Linear Regression Analysis

Linear regression analysis was carried out on the data and the regression line of variable X
and Y was obtained using the equation of the least square method as shown:

Y   0  1 x i.e Regression line of Y on X (Eqn 3.7)

1 
 y  y x  x 
i i
(Eqn 3.8)
 x  x 
2
i

 0  y  1 x (Eqn 3.9)

Where Y  Total no of collapsed building

x  No of collapsed building due to the use of poor material and workmanshi p
 0  Cons tan t coefficien t or int ercept
 1  Slope

The equation for linear regression is as presented in equation 3.7 while the regression
equations obtained is as shown in equations 3.10 - 3.12, with reference to Tables 3.3 - 3.5.

Y  2.17  3.31x (Eqn 3.10)

Y  3.346  3.097 x (Eqn 3.11)

Y  4.7045  4.0243 x (Eqn 3.12)

The excel output gives the analysis of variance and presented in Tables 3.6 - 3.8 for poor
materials & workmanship, faulty design & construction methodology and excessive loading.

Table 3.6 Analysis of Variance for poor materials & workmanship

df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 763.975825 763.9758 16.16742 0.00695194
Residual 6 283.524175 47.25403
Total 7 1047.5

- 29 -
Table 3.7 Analysis of Variance for faulty design/construction methodology

df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 852.462 852.462 26.22449 0.002176131
Residual 6 195.038 32.50633
Total 7 1047.5

Table 3.8 Analysis of Variance for Excessive loading

df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 500.0182 500.0182 5.47983 0.057772427
Residual 6 547.4818 91.24696
Total 7 1047.5

Figure 3.1 Regression model between total no of collapse and poor materials & workmanship

Figure 3.2 Regression model between total no of collapse and faulty design/construction methodology

- 30 -
Figure 3.3 Regression model between total no of collapse and Excessive loading

- 31 -
 CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Factors responsible for building collapse

Table A shows the summary of information on past building collapse in Lagos State as
detailed in the Appendix. Analyzing the data for Lagos State, building failures and casualties
within the period of 1974 to 2012 was found to be ninety-eight (98) and three hundred and
thirty-four (334) respectively (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1: Figures on building collapses and casualties.

Factor Causing building collapse No of collapse Casualties Involved

EL 15 33
FD/CM 23 76
PMW 33 73
IC 3 7
PMC 5 0
NP 13 113
NI 6 32
TOTAL 98 334
EL= Excessive Loading, FD/CM= Faulty Design/Construction Methodology, PMW= Poor quality Materials and
Workmanship, IC= Illegal Conversion, PMC= Poor Maintenance Culture, NP= Natural Phenomenon,
NI= Negligence and Incompetence

Ninety-eight cases of collapsed buildings were recorded out of which poor quality of
materials & workmanship, faulty design/construction methodology and excessive loading
leading to 33, 23 and 15 respectively as shown on Table 4.1. With respect to relative
importance index, this shows that these very factors have high significance on the rate of
building collapse in Lagos metropolis.

Three hundred and thirty-four (334) deaths was recorded as resultant calamities of building
collapse in Lagos out of which poor quality of materials & workmanship, faulty
design/construction methodology and excessive loading accounted for 73, 76 and 33
respectively as shown on Table 4.2 making a total of 182 casualties involves in building
collapse as a result of this three predominant factors. This also depict that these factors
have a significant resultant effect on building collapse in Lagos state.

- 32 -
Table4.2 Showing Recorded Casualties involved in Building Collapse.
Principal causes Casualties Involved
1974-2013
Number
Excessive Loading 33
Faulty Design 76
Poor material and Workmanship 73
Illegal Conversion 7
Poor maintenance Culture 0
Natural Phenomenon 113
Negligence/Incompetent 32

TOTAL 334

However From the monthly spread of building failure in Lagos State (Figure 4.1), it can be
said that the period between months from March and July is the severe.

Figure 4.1 Showing collapsed building for different months of the year

4.2 Relationship between causes of building failures and the total No collapsed building

Poor quality of materials & workmanship, faulty design/construction methodology and

excessive loading were found prominence causes of building failure (Table 4.1). There is a
need to examine the overall impact of these factors on building collapse in Lagos State.

In order to assess the causal relationship between the three highest causes of building
failures and the total number building collapse in Lagos State, two test statistics were
carried out i.e. regression analysis and Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. This
- 33 -
was computed from Tables 3.3 - 3.5 using the equation 3.7. A mathematical model (linear
regression equations) was generated to show the relationship between these variables in
Equations 3.10 - 3.12 and the lines of best fit obtained (Figures 3.1 - 3.3).

4.3 TEST OF HYPOTHESIS

To further determine if the claim were true or not, test of hypothesis was carried out. From
the analysis of variance Tables 3.6 - 3.8, two hypotheses were stated:

Ho  Quality of materials & workmanship, Faulty design/construction methodology and

excessive loading has no significance effect on building collapse in Lagos.

H1  Quality of materials & workmanship, Faulty design/construction methodology and

excessive loading has significance effect on building collapse in Lagos.

Level of significance α=0.05

Decision rule: Reject H o if P-value is less than level of significance α=0.05 otherwise do not

reject H o

Decision 1: H o rejected since P-value is less than α=0.05

Decision 2: H o rejected since P-value is less than α=0.05
Decision 3: H o is accepted since P-value is greater than α=0.05

Conclusion: Based on test of hypothesis, it was observed that two of the null hypothesis
were rejected and alternative “Quality of materials & workmanship and Faulty
design/construction methodology has significance effect on building collapse in Lagos” was
accepted which clearly indicate that only poor materials &workmanship and faulty
design/construction methodology were the active causes of building failure in Lagos state.

The study concluded that poor quality of materials & workmanship and Faulty
design/construction methodology has a very high causative effect on building collapse in
Lagos State.

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 CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 CONCLUSION

Building failures have been attributed to so many factors ranging from the use of
substandard materials, poor workmanship, excessive loading of the structure, faulty design,
illegal conversion, poor maintenance culture, natural phenomenon, negligence, and other
factors. The need to improve quality standards in the wider construction industry is in part
driven by the extent of building failures and building collapses found in the building sector
and also various reports and articles particularly in developing countries. Several high profile
instances have shown that quality failures have enormous impact on construction project.

It could be observed that the majority of the literature reviewed on building failures in
Nigeria are due to the use of poor quality materials. The study revealed that excessive
loading, faulty design/construction methods, poor quality materials and workmanship,
illegal conversion, poor maintenance culture, natural phenomenon and
negligence/incompetency contributed to about 15.31%, 23.47%, 33.7%, 3.1%, 5.1%, 13.27%
and 6.12% respectively of building collapse in Lagos state as presented in Table 3.1.
Moreover, from Pearson’s correlation, poor quality materials and workmanship has a very
high and positive effect followed by faulty design/construction methodology and excessive
loading on building collapse in Lagos state as shown ( r1  0.85 , r2  0.90 and r3  0.69 )
and with respect to the mathematical model (linear regression equation) generated from
the findings (Equations 3.10-3.12), it can be concluded that for every 50 houses that
collapse in Lagos state poor materials & workmanship, faulty design/construction
methodology and excessive loadings will account for 22, 15 and 11 respectively but with
reference to the test of hypothesis, only poor materials & workmanship and faulty
design/construction methodology are accepted as the active causes of building failure in
Lagos state.

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
While the issue of collapse building cannot be totally eradicated but the degree can to a
large extent be reduced or minimized if the government at all levels and the stakeholders
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can accept to tackle the problem proactively. Therefore the following recommendations are
proffered to the main stakeholders in the building industry to minimize the incident of
building failure in Lagos State:

 Standard Organization of Nigeria should vigorously be on the lookout of those

involved in the production or importation of sub-standard goods especially building
materials.

 Ministry of Housing and Urban Development should limit the number of floors in areas
where the soil is susceptible to failure and stipulate the type of foundation to be used.

 A monitoring team should be set up under the commissioner or Works and Housing to
make regular visits to different construction sites with the view of assessing how well
the contractors and supervisors (consultant engineers) play their roles.

 State ministries in charge of building plan approvals should also ensure that the
engineers supervising developments take responsibility for the structural integrity and
are properly documented including taken main photographs.

 Governments should put in place a policy for checking existing building periodically,
may be every 5 or ten years, to ascertain their continued suitability for human
habitation.

 Professional bodies like Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE), Nigerian Institute of

Architects (NIA), Nigerian Institute of Builders (NIOB), Nigerian Institute of Quantity
Surveyors (NIQS), Nigerian Institute of Estate Valuers and Surveyors (NIEVS) and
Nigerian Institute of Town Planners (NITP) should conduct a mandatory regular
workshops or seminars for their members to keep them abreast of current
developments in the profession.

 The laws governing all approved structural details of buildings, materials and effective
supervision by the local Town Planning Authorities should be enforced and not
compromised. Building or structures or any part thereof should not be erected,
converted or altered unless a development permit has been obtained by the owner or
his agent from the relevant ministry.
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 Prospective developers should employ the services of Structural Engineers who will
supervise the structural works in the building project.

 More awareness campaign should be carried out on public enlightenment by the three
tiers of government and their agencies on the need for compliance with the
appropriate building regulations and the dangers associated with their non-
compliance.

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 REFERENCES
Abdulmalik, Z.H. (2012). Impact of climate change on stream flow in the Benue river basin
using statistical and artificial neural network methods. Postgraduate project, Department of
Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin Nigeria.

Achen, C.H. (1982). Interpreting and using regression. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA.

Ayedun, C. A., Durodola, O. D. and Akinjare, O.A. (2012). An empirical ascertainment of the
causes of building failure and collapse in Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences.
3(1), 313-322.

Curtin, W.G., Shaw, G., Parkinson, G.I., Golding, J.M. and Seward, N.J. (2006). Structural
foundation designers manual. Second Edition, Black Well Publishing Ltd, UK.

Ede, A.N. (2010). Structural Stability in Nigeria and Worsening Environmental Disorder: the
Way Forward. In Proceedings with the West Africa Built Environment Research Conference
Accra Ghana, July 26-28, 2010, pp. 489-498.

Fagbenle, O.I. and Oluwunmi, A.O. (2010). Building failure and collapse in Nigeria: the
influence of the informal sector. Journals of Sustainable Development, Vol.3 (4).

Fakere, A.A., Fadairo, G. and Fakere, R.A. (2012). Assessment of building collapse in Nigeria:
A Case of Naval Building, Abuja, Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering and
Technology, Vol.2 (4).

Johnson, J.W. and LeBreton, J.M. (2004). History and use of relative importance indices in
organizational research. Organizational Research Methods, Vol. 7, No 3 pp. 238-257

Kingsley O.D. (2010). Incessant incident of building collapse in Nigeria: A challenge to

stakeholders. Global journals of researches in engineering. Vol. 10, September, 2010

Lagos state Government (2011). www.lagosstate.gov.ng/pagelinks.php?p=6 (Accessed on

March 5, 2013).

Murray, R.S. and Larry J.S. (2008). Theory and problems of statistics 4th edition McGraw-Hill
Companies Inc. U.S.A.

National Population Commission (2006). Population and housing census of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria: Priority Table. Vol. 1

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Ojelabi, C.A. (2011). An overview of building collapses in Nigeria using Ilorin Metropolis as a
case study. Final year project, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Nigeria.

Oke .A. (2011). An Examination of the Causes and Effects of Building Collapse in Nigeria.
Journal of Design and Built Environment. Vol. 9, pp. 37–47

Okeola, O. (2012). Construction Engineering: CVE 581 Lecture Note. Available at

www.scribd.com (Assessed on January 30, 2013).

Okeola, O.G. (2009). Occupational Health and Safety: Assessment in the construction
industry. Proceeding of 1st Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria.

Olajuyigbe, A.E., Rotowa, O.O. and Durojaye, E. (2012). An assessment of flood hazard in
Nigeria: The case of Mile 12, Lagos. Mediterranean Journal of Social Science, Vol. 3(2) pp.
367.

Oloyede, S.A., Omoogun, C.B. and Akinjare, O.A. (2010). Tackling causes of frequent building
collapse in Nigeria. Journals of Sustainable Development, Vol.3 (3).

Olusola, K. O., Ojambati T. S and Lawal, A. F (2011) Technological and Non –Technological
Factors Responsible for the Occurrence of Collapse Buildings in South – Western Nigeria.
Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences (JETEAS) 2 (3): 462-469.

Richardson, B. A. (1991): Defects and Deterioration in Building First Edition. London E &FN.

Samprit, C. and Hadi, A.S. (2006) Regression Analysis by Example 4th Edition. John Wiley &
Sons Inc. Hoboken, New Jersey.

Windapo, A.O. and Rotimi, J.O. (2012). Contemporary issues in building collapse and its
implications for sustainable development. Building journals Vol. 2 pp 283-299

US Census Bureau (2006) State and Country Quick Facts. Accessed October 18, 2010
(http:l/quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26/26165.html).

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APPENDIX

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Table A Details of collapsed building in Lagos State Between 1974 and 2012

S/N Building location Type Date Suspected cause(s) Remarks

Life lost
1 Western Three storey building Dec. 1978 Poor Materials and Unknown
Avenue, Lagos Workmanship
2 Lagos State 2 Storey building Sept. 1983 Natural Phenomenon 8
3 Lagos State 4 Blocks of flat Dec.1983 Natural Phenomenon 6
4 Allen Avenue, Residential Storey January Excessive loading Nil
Ikeja, Lagos Building 1985
5 Adeniji Adele, Residential Building Feb. 1985 Excessive loading 2
Lagos
6 Iponri Lagos Uncompleted 4 storey May 1985 Excessive loading 13
building
7 Ojuelegba Road Residential building May 1985 Rain storm undisclosed
Lagos
8 Bereku lane Uncompleted July 1985 Excessive loading 9
Lagos lsland,
Lagos
9 Allen Avenue Residential April 1985 Carelessness None
Lagos
10 Adeniji Adele, Residential May 1985 Carelessness 2
Lagos
11 Agege, Lagos 2 storey building under May 1987 Carelessness undisclosed
State construction
12 Idusagbe lane, Residence Sept. 14th Ignorant client, no 17
ldumota 1987 structural design
Lagos
13 Ikorodu road, Commercial Sept. 1987 Storm (nature) 4
14 Akinade Village, A storey building Sept. 1987 Excessive loading Unknown
Ikeja Lagos
15 Lagos State School Building Nov. 1988 Faulty Design 1
16 Akinwumi street, 6 storey hotel complex Oct. 1989 Faulty design No death
Mende
village ,Lagos
17 Igbobi Lagos 3 storey uncompleted Oct. 1989 Poor Materials and None
building Workmanship
18 Idumota Lagos 3 storey commercial Feb. 1990 Excessive loading Unknown
building
19 Lagos State 2 Storey Building August Faulty Design 10
1991
20 Lagos State 3 Storey Building March Faulty Design 10
1992
21 Lagos State Hotel building June 1992 Poor Maintenance Culture 2
22 Lagos state 3 Storey building June 1994 Poor Materials and 17
Workmanship
23 Lagos state 4 Storey building June 1994 Faulty Design 4
24 Maryland, Six Storey Building Jan. 1995 Poor Materials and 1
Ikorodu Road, Workmanship
Lagos
25 Bankole Street, 2 Storey building under May,1995 Poor Materials and Unknown
Apongbon, Lagos construction Workmanship
Island
26 Central Lagos Building Under Oct. 1995 Poor Materials and 10

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 Construction Workmanship
27 Oke Igbala, 3 Storey Church Oct. 1995 Faulty Design 15
Mosadoluwa Building
Close, Ogba
Lagos
28 Lagos State A Storey Building Under March Poor Materials and Injuries only
Construction 1996 Workmanship
29 Olowookere Church Building May 1996 Illegal Conversion 7
Street, Oshodi
Lagos
30 Ijagbemi Street, 6 Storey classroom Oct. 1996 Negligence/incompetency 1
Pedro, Lagos under construction
31 Adedayo Residential Building March Poor Materials and None
Adeniran street, 1997 Workmanship
amukoko Lagos
32 Amu Street, 2 Storey Commercial June 1997 Poor Materials and None
Mushin, Lagos Building Workmanship
33 Mba Magistrate Court Jan. 1998 Natural Phenomenon Unknown
Street,Ajegunle, Building
Lagos
34 Cole street, 2 Storey Building April 1999 Poor Materials and 4
Ojuelegba Lagos Workmanship
35 Charity Road 3 Storey building June 1999 Excessive Loading None
New Oko-Oba,
Agege Lagos
36 Tokunbo Street 3 storey Building June 1999 Poor Materials and Unknown
off Adeniji Adele Workmanship
Rd, Lagos
37 Obawole 1 storey residential Oct. 1999 Excessive Loading None
Estate,Iju Agege building
Lagos
38 Salisu Street Iju 3 Storey Building Under Oct.1999 Natural phenomenon 35
Ishaga, Lagos Construction
39 Adeola Odeku One Storey Building 1999 Natural Phenomenon Unknown
street, Victoria
Island, Lagos
40 Idi-Oro, Mushin, Residential Building Feb.2000 Faulty Design Unknown
Lagos
41 Eleganza 3 Storey Residential April 2000 Negligence/Incompetency 5
Building, Ikota, Building
Ajah Lagos state
42 St. Dennis Church building April 2000 Faulty Design 3
Catholic Church,
Bariga
43 State High School building April 2000 Excessive loading 1 Died 2
School, injured
Alimosho
44 Folami Pry School building May 2000 Faulty design 1 death, 2
School, injured
Atunrase,
Surulere
45 14, Semi Sarumi Residential building 2000 Poor Materials and 1 death 1
Street, Itire, Workmanship injured
Surulere

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46 10/12, Suenu Residential building 2000 Poor Materials and 2 deaths
Street, Lagos Workmanship
Island
47 12A, Okedeji Residential building May 2000 Natural phenomenon N/A
Lane, Lagos
48 14 ,Ogba Road, Residential building May 2000 Natural phenomenon N/A
Agege
49 1,Olorishade Residential building June 2000 Faulty Design N/A
Street, Agege

50 Building at Isako Residential building Nov.2000 Poor Materials and 5 death

Village, off Lekki- Workmanship
Epe Highway

51 Karunwi Central Mosque building May 2001 Faulty design 7 death

Mosque, 21Buari
Street Mushin

52 15,Akeusloa Residential building May 2001 Poor Materials and 1 death

Street Workmanship
Oworonsoki

53 20, Otigba Residential building 2002 Faulty design 10 death 31

Street, off injured
pebble Street,
Ikeja

54 Mosadolohun 3 Storey building Jan.2002 Faulty design 15 death

Street, Iba several
injured

55 12, Fredrick Residential building March Poor Materials and 15 death

Faseun avenue, 2002 Workmanship several
okota Isolo injured

56 Agege road Residential building April 2002 Faulty design Unknown

57 Allen avenue 3 Storey building May 2002 Poor Materials and Unknown
Ikeja Workmanship

58 Isiaka street off Residential building May 2002 Faulty design Unknown
Agege road

59 10, jones street Residential building Sept. 2002 Poor Materials and Unknown
Ebute-Metta Workmanship
west

60 49, Olonode Residential building Nov. 2002 Faulty design Unknown

Street Yaba

61 31, tapa street, Residential building 2003 Poor Materials and 9

Coker Road Orile Workmanship

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 Igamu

62 31, Saaki street Residential building Jan 2003 Excessive loading 4

off Ajisomo
Street

63 10,Pedro Street Storey Building Jan 2003 Natural phenomenon 30

64 50, Willoughby Residential building May 2003 Poor Materials and Unknown
street, Ebute- Workmanship
Metta

65 28, Idumagbo Commercial building May 2003 Natural phenomenon 30

Avenue

66 Pedro street Commercial building May 2003 Natural phenomenon Unknown

near Idumagbo
Avenue

67 Bereka lane Residential building August Faulty design Unknown

Lagos 2003

68 Adeniji Adele Residential building Nov. 2003 Faulty design Unknown

Road, Lagos

69 Ojuelegba road, Residential building Dec. 2003 Poor Materials and Unknown
Lagos Workmanship

70 10, Elas street, 2 floors residential 2004 Poor Materials and Unknown
Lagos building Workmanship

71 22, Makurdi 3 Floors building 2004 Excessive Loading Unknown

street, Ebute-
meta, Lagos

72 11, Solola Street 2 Floors building 2004 Poor Materials and Unknown
Agege Lagos Workmanship

73 Ilasamaja Residential building 2004 Poor Materials and Unknown

Mushin Workmanship

74 40, Market 2 floors commercial March Excessive loading Unknown

Street, Shomolu building 2005
Lagos

75 Ibile holdings 3 Floors framed April 2005 Poor Materials and Unknown
ikeja commercial building Workmanship

76 6, Princess 3 floors commercial July 2005 Poor Materials and 1

Street, Lagos building Workmanship

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77 Mushin Lagos 4 Floors commercial 2005 Excessive loadings 1
building
78 Adeniji Adele Commercial building 2005 Poor Materials and Unknown
street, Lagos Workmanship
Island

79 Mende, Commercial building 2005 Faulty design Unknown

Maryland area
Ikeja

80 53, Cemetery 4 Floors Jan. 2006 Negligence/Incompetency 7

Road, Amukoko, residential/commercial
Ijora, Ajejunle building

81 NIDB building, Commercial building April 2006 Natural Phenomenon Unknown

Broad Street,
Lagos Island

82 71, Ibadan Residential building April 2006 Poor material and Unknown
Street, Ebute- workmanship
Metta East

83 42, Ibadan Residential building May 2006 Excessive loading Unknown

Street, Ebute-
Metta East

84 1, Muritala Commercial building May 2006 Faulty design Unknown

Muhammed
Airport Road,
Oshodi

85 6A, Milverton Commercial building May 2006 Poor Maintenance Culture None
Close, Ikoyi

86 118,Ojuelegba Residential building July 2006 Poor Materials and Unknown

Road, Surulere Workmanship

87 Opposite Commercial building July 2006 Poor Materials and Unknown

Rosella, Workmanship
LASU/Iba Road,
Iba

88 48, Adams Residential building Sept. 2006 Faulty design Unknown

Street, Lagos
Island

89 38, Idumagbo Commercial building 2006 Poor Materials and Unknown

Avenue, Lagos Workmanship
Island

91 32B, Egerton Commercial building Oct. 2006 Poor Materials and Unknown
Workmanship
- 45 -
 Lane, Oke-Arin

92 71, Agoro Street Residential building 2006 Faulty design Unknown

93 8, Ashaka Street, Residential building Dec. 2006 Poor Materials and Unknown
Abule-nla, Workmanship
Ebute-Metta

94 Ebute-metta, Multi-storey 2007 Illegal conversion Several

Lagos commercial/residential People
building
95 Ogudu, Ojota 3 Storey Building under April 2008 Poor material and Unknown
Lagos construction workmanship

96 Isopakodowo Building under April 2010 Poor material and 4

Street, Cairo construction workmanship
Oshodi, Lagos

97 Adenike street, Uncompleted storey June 2010 Poor material and 1

Off New Market, building workmanship
Oniru Estate,
Lagos

98 24, Alli street, 4 Storey building September Excessive Loading 3

Victoria Island, 2010
Lagos

Sources: Kingsley, 2010; Windapo and Rotimi, 2012 and Ayedun, et. al., 2012

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