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Risk and return analysis of NSE companies

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Research Paper Finance E-ISSN No : 2454-9916 | Volume : 5 | Issue : 7 | July 2019

A
STUDY
ON
RISK
AND
RETURN
ANALYSIS
OF
SELECTED

FINANCIAL
SERVICES
COMPANIES
LISTED
ON
NSE

1 2 3
Sushma K S | Charithra C M | Dr. Bhavya Vikas
1
MBA 2nd Year, BNM Institute of Technology, 560070.
2
Assistant Professor, BNM Institute of Technology, 560070.
3
Associate Professor, BNM Institute of Technology, 560070

ABSTRACT
The security market is very dynamic and volatile in nature, where prediction plays a pivotal role for an investor to invest in this market. Risk and return are two sides of
a same coin, where both the aspects influence each other for an investment. Hence, understanding the risk involved in the investment helps to maximize returns. This
study helps the investors to examine and compare the assessments along with the market and to identify the company which would be preferable to invest based on
their risk-taking ability. The primary objective of the study was to assess the risk and return of the eight NSE listed financial services companies along with a secondary
objective to compare individual company stock volatility before and after the event of demonetization. The tools and techniques used for analysis were Mean, Standard
deviation, Beta, Correlation, Covariance and T-test. Analysis was done by using the closing prices of each month for all the selected companies (Bajaj Finserv, HDFC,
ICICI, Axis, Cholamandalam investment and finance, State bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Max finance services) for a specified time period. The findings of
the study were that Bajaj Finserv had the highest returns amongst the selected eight companies and the volatility of all the selected eight companies had no difference
before and after the event of demonetization. The overall study suggested that investors should always be ready to face any unforeseen events. To be on a safer side and
to minimize the severity of loss during such events, various preventive measures like assessing the risk and return should be done well in advance.

KEY WORDS: Beta, Correlation, Covariance, Standard Deviation, T-test, Volatility.

1. INTRODUCTION: return relationship of two selected commercial banks which are listed on the
The stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular Nepal stock exchange. The data was collected for a period five years and tools
activities of buying, selling and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies such as correlation, SD, covariance, and also portfolio analysis & t-test were
take place. Most of the trading in the Indian stock market takes place on its two used for the purpose of analysis. They analysed that both the banks had high pro-
stock exchanges: the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock portions of unsystematic risk, and the prices of the stocks were overpriced. So,
Exchange (NSE) they concluded that it was preferable for the investors to go for short selling.

An individual (investor) decision-making process is influenced by the way he Dr. S Poornima and Swathiga P (2017), analysed the relationship between risk &
analyses the return and the risk associated with the investment. The research is return of 10 selected companies. These ten companies are selected from 2 differ-
based on the study of risk and return assessments of the selected eight financial ent sectors i.e. automobile and IT sector, which are listed on NSE. The tools like
services companies which are listed on the NSE (Financial services Nifty). The average return, SD and CAPM model are used to perform the analysis. Analysis
analysis of risk and returns of a stock is of utmost importance. An investor who is done for a period of 3 years. They concluded that the analysis helps the inves-
wants to earn high returns should also be ready to face and accept the high risks tors to select the stock based on their own choice. They advised that in case of the
which will be associated with that investment. Based on risk & return analysis, if automobile sector it was preferable for the investors to invest in Maruthi Suzuki
the risk is low the returns will also be low where as when the risk is high the and Bosch where as in the IT sector it was HCL Technologies. They concluded
returns will also be high. that the automobiles sector had better market growth than the IT sector.

The financial services industry includes several types of companies associated Dr. M. Muthu Gopalakrishnan & Amal Vijay A K (2017), attempted to analyse
with the feature of dealing with money and managing them, and it plays a crucial the risk return aspects of ten selected pharmaceutical companies which are listed
role for any country's economy. The financial services industry as a whole is sub- on NSE. The tools which were used to perform the analysis were mean, beta, stan-
stantial, vast enough and consists of organisations engaged in activities which dard deviation, alpha, correlation and covariance. The data collected was for a
includes making an investment, lending, securities trading and issuance, insur- period of five years, from 2012 to 2015. By analysing these companies, they
ing, asset management, advising, forex, accounting, and many more. This sector understood that if the investor has to get high returns it is very important to con-
consists of many companies/organisations such as commercial banks, NBFC, sider the risk and return factors of the stocks. They concluded that Sun Pharma-
insurance companies, co- operatives, payment banks, pension funds, mutual ceutical company is giving the high returns but the volatility associated with the
funds and many other small financial entities. In India the financial sector is domi- returns of the company is also high, where as for Divi's Laboratories company
nated by the banking sector which consists of 64% of commercial banks total had less volatility in the returns and also had good high returns for the stock. So,
assets which is held by financial system. they concluded that Divi's Laboratories was the company the investors should
prefer in investing.
Every investment will be subjected to risk to some extent or the other. The best
investment is that which gives high returns with minimum risk involved. For Dr. Pramod Kumar Patjoshi (2016), analysed the risk and return assessments for
making risk analysis the market information is required, which in turn helps in four selected bank stocks which are listed on BSE for a period of fifteen years.
making necessary assessments to take preventive measures. The study was conducted to analyse the relationship between the risk and returns
of the bank stocks and sensex. Tools and techniques like correlation, t-test &
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE: regression were used for the study. From the study they found that the Sensex had
Dr. P. Subramanyam and Dr. Nalla Bala Kalyan (2018), analysed the return and high returns when compared to the selected stocks apart from few stocks. Few
risk assessments of the equity purchased from the secondary market for ten dif- stocks had positive correlation and few stocks had negative correlation with the
ferent companies for a period of one month. The tools and techniques used in this Sensex returns. They concluded that the banking stocks and the Sensex change in
research are beta, expected return and co-efficient of variation. This paper the similar trend.
emphasizes on the market fluctuations relations to the prices of Scrip's though it
is difficult to observe a pattern for the price movements but efforts have been Krishnaprabha and Vijayakumar (2015), analysed the risk and return characteris-
taken using fundamental analysis and technical analysis. They concluded that tics of 25 companies which are listed in BSE. These companies were chosen
one method is not sufficient to analyse and interpret the fluctuations. However, based on high market capitalization and they were analysed according to the
suggested that these tools help the investor to define the trends to some extent. industry they belonged to. The study was conducted for a period of 4 years from
They also concluded form the research that, the month February 2017 was not January 2010 to December 2014. The tools used for the analysis were returns,
favorable to invest in the infrastructure companies. beta, standard deviation and covariance. The author believed that risk and return
aspects play a very important role in the investment decision. They concluded
Lakshman Raj Kandel (2018), the author made an attempt to analyse the risk and that the long-term investors had a greater advantage as there was less volatility.
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International Education & Research Journal [IERJ] 1

Research Paper E-ISSN No : 2454-9916 | Volume : 5 | Issue : 7 | July 2019
They also analised that the FMCG, IT and Pharmacutical secors gave more for the purpose of performing the T-test.
return when compared to the Automobile and Banking sector.
Sampling Technique Adopted:
Narayan Gaonkar and Dr.Kushalappa (2015), made an attempt to analyse the risk Judgmental sampling technique is being used to select the Financial services
and returns assessments of the selected 30 companies which are listed on NSE companies which are listed in the National Stock Exchange, for the purpose of
and to find out the extent of the variation of the stock of the selected companies performing the analysis. The results obtained from a judgmental sample are sub-
for a period of one year. They also analysed the portfolio of these companies. jected to some degree of bias due to the sample selected based on the researcher
They used tools such as beta and CAPM model. They found out that Axis Bank knowledge and judgement, the population may not be identical.
had the highest CAPM returns, HCL had highest abnormal and actual returns,
where as Asian Paints had the least actual returns. They concluded that thirteen Significance of the study:
companies have less returns than the portfolio returns and also concluded that the Return expresses the amount which an investor actually earned on an investment
stocks which has high systematic risk would not be preferable for an investor due during a certain period. Risk is the probability that a certain investment may or
to the high risk involved. may not deliver the actual/expected returns. The risk and return trade off says that
the potential return rises with an increase in risk. It is important for an investor to
Dr. G. Sudarsana Reddy (2013), the study is done for the purpose of analysing the decide on a balance between the desire for the lowest possible risk and highest
factors influencing the volatility of the stock prices of the selected FMCG com- possible return. Return and risk analysis helps the investor to make sure he/she
panies which are listed on the NSE in order to compare them with that of the mar- does not commit any mistake by entering into a wrong investment or taking a
ket. Three FMCG company's data for a period of one year was being collected. wrong decision. Investor can use various tools and techniques to analyse them.
The tools such as mean, SD, alpha, co-variance and beta are being used. They ana- This study helps in analysing the risks and returns associated with eight financial
lysed that the performance of HUL was better when compared to the other two services companies listed in the NSE by using various tools.
(ITC & Britannia). The concluded by telling that is was not easy to analyse the
performance of the FMCG companies due to lot of fluctuations, and that the per- Tools used for Analysis:
formance of the market index was better when compared to the company. Ÿ Mean

Nagarajan and Prabhakaran (2013), the authors conducted the study in order to Ÿ Standard Deviation
analyse the risk and return aspects associated with the selected 10 major FMCG
companies listed on NSE and also the fluctuations of their stock prices. The stock Ÿ Correlation
prices data was being collected for a period of one year. The tools such as stan-
dard deviation, correlation, beta, covariation was being used. They concluded Ÿ Covariance
that the stock prices of the companies HUL & ITC were comparatively more vola-
tile than other companies under the study period, and that the companies had a Ÿ Beta
positive movement in the prices in relation to the market. Beta of all the selected
companies were below 1. They also analysed that Dabur company's share prices Ÿ T-test
were more variable compared to other companies due to high SD & Variation.
They explained as to it is very important to always analyse the financial mix, the Sample selection:
benefits and the costs of debts should be analysed before making an investment. Using the judgmental sampling technique eight companies were being selected
based on the level of competition being faced by these companies in the market
S.Kevin (2013), made an attempt to analyse the extent of volatility of the selected with similar services being offered by them. These eight companies are listed on
stocks share prices across different countries for different time periods. The the Nifty Financial services Index on the NSE. The eight companies are as fol-
study was based on the data which is collected for a period of 18 months. The lows:
monthly Co-variance values were derived for all the stock exchanges of different
selected countries and geographic regions in order to perform t-test. They con- Ÿ Axis Bank Ltd
cluded that there was no major difference in the volatility between the stock
exchanges with in the specific regions such as Asian, Latin American, Pacific and Ÿ Bajaj Finserv Private Ltd
European region, but there was a significant difference in volatility of the stock
exchanges from different regions. Ÿ Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Co Ltd

2.1 Research Gap: Ÿ HDFC Bank Ltd

Research gap from the review of literature of the selected articles was that the
authors had analysed the risk and return characteristics and assessments of vari- Ÿ ICICI Bank Ltd
ous companies of different sectors or belonging to same sector using various
tools and techniques. The results were inconsistent. So, in this study, an attempt it Ÿ Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd
made to analyse the risk and return aspects and assessments of eight selected
financial services companies and hypothesis testing is being done using t test in Ÿ Max Financial Services
order to analyse the volatility of those eight companies before and after demone-
tization. Ÿ State Bank of India

3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: 5. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:

Ÿ To analyse and compare the return and risk assessments of selected Financial Ÿ The study is limited to data collected for a period of one year i.e. from Janu-
services company stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange ary 2018 to December 2018. (for the purpose of calculating beta, standard
deviation, correlation and covariance)
Ÿ To examine the relationship between the Nifty and the selected Financial ser-
vices company stocks. Ÿ The study is limited to data collected from eight companies listed under
Financial Services Nifty.
Ÿ To study the volatility of the selected financial services companies pre and
post of “Demonetization”. Ÿ The prediction of the risk cannot be accurate since the fluctuations in the mar-
ket is based on other External factors and it is uncertain.
4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
Research Design - Research Design refers to the plan which determines the meth- Ÿ The study is limited to a smaller sample size due to lack of time and
ods, tools & techniques and the procedures being used for the purpose collecting resources.
and analysing the data. A descriptive research design has been adopted for the pur-
pose of analysing the risks and returns of the selected data. Ÿ The study is limited to data collected for a period of 4 years before and after
the happening of Demonetization (for the purpose of performing T test)
Sources of Data and period of study:
The study is based on the secondary data which is being collected from the 6. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION:
National Stock Exchange official website, journals, research articles, and books. For the purpose of carrying out the data analysis and calculation of Mean
Returns, Standard Deviation, Beta, Correlation and Covariance, monthly closing
Ÿ The Data is collected for a period of 12 months (i.e. One Year), closing prices prices of the selected eight financial services company stocks and the nifty finan-
of the selected 8 stocks related to Financial services sector listed in National cial services returns for the year 2018 have been collected. Correlation and
Stock Exchange for the purpose of calculating the returns, standard devia- covariance of these companies were calculated in comparison with the Financial
tion, beta, correlation and covariance. services market. These monthly closing prices were tabulated and with the use of
excel the calculations and interpretations were made.
Ÿ The Data is collected for a period of 4 years, closing prices of the selected 8
stocks related to Financial services sector listed in National Stock Exchange

2 International Education & Research Journal [IERJ]

Research Paper E-ISSN No : 2454-9916 | Volume : 5 | Issue : 7 | July 2019
Table 1: Showing Total returns, Mean returns, Standard Deviation and Table 3: Showing the covariance of the eight selected companies 24
Beta of the selected eight Financial Services companies listed on NSE months before and 24 months after the demonetization

Total Standard Covariance 24 Covariance 24

Company Mean Beta Financial Services Companies listed
returns Deviation months before months after
on NSE (financial services nifty)
demonetization demonetization
Axis Bank Ltd 0.0434 0.0039 0.0774 0.9791
Axis Bank Ltd 0.0094 0.0031
Bajaj Finserv Private Ltd 0.2971 0.0248 0.0876 1.0986
Bajaj Finserv Private Ltd 0.0076 0.0095
Cholamandalam Investment &
-0.0207 -0.0019 0.1120 0.5618 Cholamandalam Investment and
Finance Co Ltd 0.0067 0.0082
Finance Ltd
HDFC Bank Ltd 0.0562 0.0051 0.0545 0.7479
HDFC Bank Ltd 0.0150 0.0319
ICICI Bank Ltd 0.0202 0.0018 0.0904 1.1022 ICICI Bank Ltd 0.0083 0.0066
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Mahindra & Mahindra Financial
0.0217 0.0020 0.0940 1.3520 0.0113 0.4458
Services Ltd Services Ltd
Max Financial Services -0.1805 -0.0164 0.1042 1.4317 Max Financial Services Ltd 0.0130 0.0101
State Bank of India -0.0570 -0.0052 0.0881 1.4263 State Bank Of India 0.0018 0.0013

Interpretation: From the table it is understood that Bajaj Finserv had the highest Interpretation: From the calculation it was clearly shown that the companies'
returns for the year 2018 when compared to all other companies but it had rela- volatility have definitely changed after the happening of the demonetization,
tively high beta as well, which shows the company was involved with high risks there were ups and downs in the share prices. Some companies have extreme
which in turn gave good returns and the company stock is volatile because it has a changes where as some companies have moderate changes in their volatility.
beta of 1.0986. HDFC Bank would be the second option to choose for an investor
who wants lower risk with good returns, has comparatively less volatility. Max The t-test value which was derived after the calculation was 0.3408 which is
Financial services and State bank of India had negative returns with high levels lesser than the critical value derived i.e. 2.3646, which means the alternate
of risk involved, so it is not preferable for an investor to choose these two compa- hypothesis has to be rejected and the null hypothesis has to be accepted. It was
nies as the investment would definitely not give them positive returns and they found out that there was no significant difference in the volatility of the compa-
are highly volatile stocks. nies before and after demonetization for the selected eight companies.

Table 2: Showing the Correlation and Covariance of the selected eight 7. FINDINGS:
Financial Services companies listed on NSE Based on the first objective: assessments of selected financial services compa-
nies' risk and returns.
Company Correlation Covariance
Ÿ Bajaj Finserv had a high beta level i.e. 1.0986, but the company was earning
Axis Bank Ltd 0.6537 0.0026 very good returns. So, if an investor is ready to take high risk levels to get
good returns, it is preferable to invest in Bajaj. According to the results
Bajaj Finserv Private Ltd 0.6472 0.0029
obtained Bajaj Finserv has performed better than all other seven financial ser-
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Co Ltd 0.2593 0.0015 vices companies taken up for the analysis (year 2018). They had good
improvement in their asset quality and and reduction in the non performing
HDFC Bank Ltd 0.7088 0.0020 assets which led to high returns.
ICICI Bank Ltd 0.6307 0.0029 Ÿ Many companies like Max, SBI, ICICI, Mahindra & Mahindra had high lev-
els of beta in the year 2018, but the returns were low, and for SBI and max it
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd 0.7435 0.0036
turned out to be negative returns which can be due to various reasons ex: high
Max Financial Services 0.7109 0.0038 NPA%

State Bank of India 0.8369 0.0038 Ÿ HDFC Bank had a beta of 0.7479 and returns of 0.0562. Amongst the eight
companies, HDFC was the only company which had the combination of com-
Interpretation: The correlation and covariance of these companies are calcu- paratively low beta with good returns.
lated in comparison with the market returns (financial services nifty returns).
State Bank of India returns had a very strong correlation with the Financial ser- Based on the second objective: Relationship between Nifty and the selected
vices nifty returns with a covariance of 0.0038. Axis bank, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC financial services company stocks.
bank, ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Max Financial services all had moder-
ately high correlation with the market returns where has Cholamandalam Invest- Ÿ Companies like SBI, Mahindra&Mahindra and HDFC bank had strong cor-
ment & Finance company had a very weak correlation with the market returns. relation with the market, but they had high volatility in their prices.

T- test: Ÿ All the other companies had moderate correlation with the market returns
For the purpose of performing the student's T test, the monthly closing prices of and with the movement of the market, but Cholamandalam company had a
the eight companies for a period of 4 years i.e. (from Nov 8th 2014 to Nov 8th very low correlation with the market (stock was very volatile) and it also had
2018) have been taken. These closing prices are used for the purpose of calculat- negative returns.
ing the total returns for 24 months before and after the event of demonetization.
The returns from each company is used to calculate the covariance of the eight Based on the third objective: volatility of the selected financial services stocks
companies by using the data analysis tool in excel. With the help of this tool before and after Demonetization.
covariance is calculated for each company before and after demonetization.
After the values are compared for before and after demonetization, t-test value Ÿ It was found that there was no significant difference between the perfor-
and the critical value can be derived, which in turn helps in accepting or rejecting mance of the selected eight companies before and after demonetization
the hypothesis statement. (based on the covariance of the eight companies)

Hypothesis statements: Ÿ The reports say that more than 40 stocks after the demonetization had dou-
Null Hypothesis: bled its investor's money, but few companies have been hit by demonetiza-
H0: There is no significant difference in the volatility of the selected financial ser- tion in a negative way.
vices companies' stocks listed in NSE, before and after the happening of
demonetization. Ÿ HDFC Bank had a huge drop on its profits, in the year 2017 it had the lowest
ever growth in the quarterly segment. This happened due to the note ban as
Alternative Hypothesis: well as redemption on the foreign currency.
HA: There is a significant difference in the volatility of the selected financial ser-
vices companies' stocks listed in NSE, before and after the happening of Ÿ After demonetization there was a lot of money being deposited by the cus-
demonetization tomers, for which in turn the banks such as HDFC, ICICI bank cut down its
fixed deposit rates by 0.25%.

International Education & Research Journal [IERJ] 3

 Research Paper E-ISSN No : 2454-9916 | Volume : 5 | Issue : 7 | July 2019
Ÿ There were huge insurance premium collections after the demonetization, it 13. www.moneycontrol.com
increased for about 46% for a period of one year. 14. www.investopedia.com
15. www.myinvestmentideas.com
Ÿ For many of the Non Banking companies there was an increase of their assets
by 52%.

There were issues for many of the banks relating to the lending operations, where
the disbursements of the microfinance and the agricultural field was hit badly by
demonetization.

8. SUGGESTION:
Ÿ The companies have to invest in the rapidly changing technology and keep
their company upto date with the technology in order to keep performing
well in the market.

Ÿ NBFC's are facing a lot of trouble from the credit risk, so it is important for
them to make sure they take all necessary precautions to examine customer's
credit records and make sure they establish proper credit limits. They have to
take necessary precautions in order to reduce their NPA.

Ÿ The banking companies should make sure they increase their productivity by
introducing techniques like lean manufacturing. (which means to minimise
the waste).

Ÿ The Investor can invest in Bajaj Finserv Private Ltd stock if they are ready to
take up high risk since the stock is involved with high returns. If the investor
wants comparatively lower risk with good returns, then they can invest in
HDFC Bank Ltd stock.

9. CONCLUSION:
This project was prepared in order to make assessments of the risk and returns of
the selected financial services company stocks and also to understand how the
occurrence of an event can cause fluctuations in the stock prices of a company.
The results obtained from this study might not be accurate, because of the limited
time period to conduct the study, the analysis was done using very few tools and
techniques.

It is important for the companies to always be prepared for the unforeseen events
which might occur at any time. If a company is well prepared for such events, it
might be helpful to reduce the severity of the loss that might occur for the com-
pany. So the risk and return analysis is an important assessment which has to be
done by an investor before making an investment.

The companies should also take necessary advice from the experts in the field in
order to make investment in the required segment and proper precautions in order
to improve their performance/returns and reduce the risks associated with it.

REFERENCES:
Articles:
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Books:
11. Dr. V.A.Avadhani (2014), Investment Management, Himalaya Publishing House

Websites:
12. www.nseindia.com

4 International Education & Research Journal [IERJ]

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