Global Food Security 37 (2023) 100693

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Global Food Security

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gfs

COVID-19, Climate Change, and Conflict in Honduras: A food system

disruption analysis
Jonathan Lara-Arévalo a, *, Lucía Escobar-Burgos b, E.R.H. Moore c, Roni Neff c, d, Marie L. Spiker a
a
Nutritional Sciences Program, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, United States
b
World Food Programme, Tegucigalpa, Honduras
c
Department of Environmental Health & Engineering, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States
d
Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future, Baltimore, MD, United States

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In Honduras, as in many settings between 2020 and 2022, food security was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,
Food security climate change, and conflicts—what some refer to as “The Three Cs.” These challenges have had overlapping
Food systems resilience impacts on food supply chains, food assistance programs, food prices, household purchasing power, physical
Fault tree
access to food, and food acceptability. This article applies a food system disruption analysis—adapted from a
Food supply chains
Food access
fault tree analysis originally developed for a municipal context in the United States—to the context of Honduras
to systematically examine how the Three Cs affected food availability, accessibility, and acceptability. This
article demonstrates the value of approaching food security through a disruption analysis, especially for settings
impacted by multiple, interconnected, ongoing crises.

1. Introduction explore system-level failures—and towards a framework that recognizes

a broader range of operational outcomes within food systems beyond
The past two years (2020–2022) have delivered multiple, over­ “failure” and “success.” In this article, we expand the framework beyond
lapping challenges to food security including climate change, conflicts, its original setting—an urban area in the United States—to be more
and the COVID-19 pandemic—what some refer to as the “Three Cs” broadly applicable to a range of high-, middle-, and low-income country
(Hendriks et al., 2022; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, 2022)— settings and a range of scales. Additionally, we demonstrate how a fault
with inequitable impacts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). tree analysis can be applied to multiple, overlapping disruptions in
Honduras has not only faced the COVID-19 pandemic but has also been LMICs, ranging from acute shocks (e.g., hurricanes) to chronic stressors
impacted by Hurricanes Eta and Iota in November 2020 and is projected (e.g., prolonged droughts, or the continuing and evolving impacts of the
to be disproportionately impacted by volatility in food, agricultural COVID-19 pandemic) and their cascading impacts on food insecurity.
input, and energy prices related to tensions between Russia and Ukraine We use Honduras as a case study.
(Lara-Arévalo and Vega, 2022). This article uses Honduras as a case The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines the four main
study for how these disruptions have affected food security in Latin dimensions of food security as availability, accessibility, utilization, and
America, and for the importance of preparing food systems for crises. stability, and more recently a six-dimensional framework also includes
This article expands and updates a food system disruption analysis agency and sustainability (HLPE, 2020). As shown in Fig. 1, the food
originally developed for the context of Baltimore City, Maryland, USA, system disruption analysis is visually represented as a tree with three
as a fault tree analysis (Chodur et al., 2018). In Baltimore City, the fault branches—food availability, accessibility, and acceptability—each of
tree analysis was a decision-support tool developed through a collabo­ which could hypothetically lead to population-level food insecurity on
rative process between researchers and city planners in order to incor­ its own. We use the terminology food acceptability to refer to cultural
porate food security into disaster and resilience planning (Biehl et al., acceptability, food safety, and ability to promote nutritional status­
2017). Here we shift away from the language of the fault tree—an en­ —which encompasses both utilization (referring to the biological uptake
gineering tool originally developed by Bell Telephone Laboratories to of nutrients, which is dependent on health status) and the nutritional

* Corresponding author. Raitt Hall, Box 353410, Seattle, WA, 98195-3410, United States.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (J. Lara-Arévalo), [email protected] (L. Escobar-Burgos), [email protected] (E.R.H. Moore), [email protected] (R. Neff),
[email protected] (M.L. Spiker).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100693
Received 20 October 2022; Received in revised form 11 April 2023; Accepted 16 April 2023
Available online 17 April 2023
2211-9124/© 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J. Lara-Arévalo et al. Global Food Security 37 (2023) 100693

quality of foods (including medically appropriate foods). As in the model impacted food availability, accessibility, and acceptability. This case
of Chodur et al. (2018), the food system disruption analysis does not study incorporates data from national and international sources, peer-
include stability as a branch of the tree, as we consider stability as an reviewed publications, and expert knowledge, highlighting relevant
outcome of resilient food systems, rather than a contributor to system parts of the food system and their interconnections rather than covering
disruptions after adverse situations. each component of the food system exhaustively.
A food system disruption analysis illustrates connections between
system disruptions and their contributing causes; events lower on the 2. Honduras case study
tree can lead to events higher on the tree. For example, the occurrence of
local shocks (such as droughts or flood) or stressors (such as conflict) can 2.1. COVID-19 pandemic
affect different food supply chain actors, hindering efficient supply
chain operations. This can result in physical and economic disruptions in 2.1.1. Food availability
the food supply chain, leading to price volatility, food losses, or food As in all countries worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced
shortages which contribute to population-level food insecurity and disruptions throughout food supply chains in Honduras. Though policies
malnutrition (Béné, 2020). A food system disruption analysis provides a were implemented to protect food production, such as microcredit loans
structured, logical approach that enables planners and other stake­ and debt refinancing for farmers, food production was impacted
holders to comprehensively review and anticipate a range of hazards considerably. Food vendors encountered unexpected shifts in both food
that may hinder food security. These hazards may include natural di­ supply and demand: 78% of food store owners reported supply issues in
sasters, disease epidemics, and non-natural hazards related to resource April 2020, particularly with dairy, meat, vegetables, and fruit juices
shortages, conflict, terrorism, civil unrest, and other political or eco­ (Programa Mundial de Alimentos, 2020), and poultry farmers reported a
nomic changes. 40% reduction in poultry product sales (Diaz-Bonilla et al., 2021). Given
We situate the disruptions to food security in Honduras within its the supply chain disruptions for fresh products, an increase in the con­
national context. The country’s challenges include high income sumption of less nutritious energy dense foods was observed in the re­
inequality; a lack of adequate food system infrastructure, which impairs gion (FAO and ECLAC, 2020a). Retail disruptions such as market
delivery of the food supply, especially to rural areas; and dependence on closures or reduced business hours that affected physical access to food
agriculture. The agricultural sector in Honduras employs 35% of the (detailed below) also affected the food supply by exacerbating food
country’s economically active population and generates almost 13% of waste. In Honduras, as in many countries across Latin America,
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Derlagen et al., 2019). COVID-19-related drivers of retail-level food waste included market
The following sections use food system disruption analysis to closures (and accompanying loss of customers), panic buying, and sub­
examine how the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and conflict, as sequent overstocking from both retailers and consumers (FAO and
independent and confluent crises in Honduras from 2020 to 2022, have ECLAC, 2020b).

Fig. 1. Updated food system disruption analysis. This is an adaptation of the simplified “fault tree” that appears in the Baltimore Food System Resilience Advisory
Report (Biehl et al., 2017). A more technical version with detailed sub-trees can be found in Chodur et al., (2018). This food system disruption analysis illustrates
connections between system disruptions and their contributing causes; events lower on the tree can lead to events higher on the tree. For example, a disruption to
food production could lead to a supply chain failure that makes food unavailable, ultimately contributing to population-level food insecurity. There are also con­
nections between the “branches” of the tree, detailed in the text. In this figure, the peripheral boxes describe the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change,
and conflict on food security in Honduras from 2020 to 2022; these are a selection of illustrative examples described more fully in the text.

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Schools are one of many provisioning points within food supply exceptionally challenging for authorities responsible for national food
chains in LMICs. The pandemic caused the closure of schools and school safety control systems in Latin America (FAO and ECLAC, 2020c). Staff
cafeterias globally, leading to substantial nutritional consequences for conducting diverse activities such as inspection of food trade operations,
children (Béné et al., 2021). In Honduras, the National School Feeding export certification, control of imported food, and food sampling and
Program—which supplies universally free meals to more than 1.2 analysis faced challenges during the first months of the pandemic (FAO
million children each year—experienced interruptions due to school and ECLAC, 2020c). Additionally, food aid distributed in the early days
closures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 starting in March 2020 of the pandemic included food baskets from the country’s many devel­
(Tosta, 2020). These interruptions included reductions in assistance opment agencies and humanitarian organizations, and food aid from the
days, new modalities of distribution such as take-home meals, and Honduran government reached more than 1.5 million beneficiaries in
limiting meals to a smaller range of commodities (e.g., beans and dates) rural and urban areas (Prensa - SDE, 2020). However, due to inadequate
or more targeted populations (e.g., food insecure, indigenous regions). cold chain in many parts of the country, food donations were required to
At the time of writing, the program is slowly resuming pre-pandemic be non-perishable and ultimately consisted mainly of grains. As a result,
levels of food assistance. The meals are being accompanied by addi­ food baskets were composed of limited products, some of which were
tional nutrition-sensitive activities (e.g., nutrition education) at school not culturally accepted countrywide, such as canned sardines. These
sites, in light of the serious malnutrition risks for children who depend factors, combined with decreased household purchasing power and a
on school meals for their caloric and nutrient requirements. general lack of nutrition knowledge in the population, created a perfect
context for many Hondurans to increase consumption of cheap, low
2.1.2. Food accessibility nutrient density foods (Lara-Arevalo and Escobar-Burgos, 2020).
Evidence suggests that the biggest impact of COVID-19 on the
different dimensions of global food security was on food access (Béné 2.2. Climate change
et al., 2021). As in most countries, COVID-19 had major impacts on both
physical and economic food access in Honduras, with particularly visible 2.2.1. Food availability
impacts in the early months of the pandemic. Shortly after the first Honduras is affected by extreme weather events—it ranked 44th for
diagnosed case of COVID-19 in March 2020, government authorities its climate risk index from 2000 to 2019, and flood and storm events are
imposed a national lockdown, allowing people to leave their homes once becoming increasingly severe (Eckstein et al., 2021). Rapidly urbanizing
every two weeks based on the last number of their identification cards. areas around the capital city, Tegucigalpa, are susceptible to landslides
Moreover, physical access to food was limited by quarantine measures, and flooding, and many of the country’s rural residents (41% of the total
the closure of street markets, and interruptions to public trans­ population) depend on rainfed agriculture and are thus particularly
portation—issues that can affect not only the quantity but also the susceptible to drought. The country declared a national state of emer­
quality and diversity of household foods. Interruptions to transportation gency in 2018 and 2019 due to extreme drought, and food insecurity has
affected both urban and rural populations, with some rural residents become a recurrent issue in drought-prone regions. In November 2020,
needing to walk 2–3 hours to the nearest market. in a span of less than two weeks and amid the COVID-19 pandemic,
In terms of economic access, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated hurricanes Eta and Iota both made landfall as category 4 hurricanes,
food access vulnerabilities that have been in the making for over 15 affecting almost 4 million of the country’s 9.9 million residents (Zam­
years within the broader socio-economic context of Honduras. At the brano et al., 2021). The hurricanes impacted food availability via supply
beginning of 2020, around 40% of the national workforce was already chain disruptions, including disruptions to food production, processing,
unemployed (Food Security Information Network, 2021) and 80% of wholesale, distribution, and retail. Food availability was severely
employment was informal—one of the highest rates of informal impacted as many households lost crops, livestock, or food stocks, with
employment in Latin America (Acevedo et al., 2021). By July 2020, almost 570,000 ha of food crops damaged or lost due to the storms (FAO,
around 2.1 million informal workers had employment disruptions 2020). Moreover, almost 90 countrywide roads were obstructed or
leading to income loss and 67% of formal workers were on labor sus­ damaged (Zambrano et al., 2021), resulting in transportation disrup­
pension (Food Security Information Network, 2021), with many in tions that also contributed to decreases in food availability.
urban areas. Honduras is also one of the top ten remittance-receiving
countries in the world, which creates heightened vulnerability when 2.2.2. Food accessibility
livelihoods are disrupted abroad. At the national level, remittances In the wake of Hurricanes Eta and Iota, the supply chain disruptions
comprised 23% of the country’s GDP in 2020 (Dunnaville et al., 2022). described above were compounded by food access issues, especially
At the household level, remittances comprise 33.8%–54.3% of house­ physical access. Around 200,000 residents were evacuated (Zambrano
hold incomes, with the bulk of this income spent on food (Dunnaville et al., 2021), and therefore had limited or no access to food vendors.
et al., 2022). Temporary reductions in remittances due to an increase in Damaged roads and disrupted communications interrupted not only
unemployment among out-migrated Hondurans from March to June food purveyors, but also the distribution of emergency assistance. By
2020 weakened household purchasing power. At the same time, food December 2020, around 330,000 people continued to be unreachable
prices increased globally (Buchholz, 2021). Ultimately, precarious while 95,000 were still living in shelters (Food Security Information
household incomes and increased food prices affected economic access Network, 2021). The hurricanes also affected economic access to food.
to foods. Around 89% of respondents to a World Food Programme (WFP) Though rising food prices began to stabilize by August 2020, cropland
survey did not have food reserves and half of the households were destruction and supply chain failures resulting from the hurricanes
accessing foods using their savings and credit as a coping strategy caused food prices to rise again at the end of 2020 (Food Security In­
(Diaz-Bonilla et al., 2021). Other emergency coping strategies, such as formation Network, 2021). With a combined national economic impact
reducing quantity and quality of consumed foods, were used to face of over USD$2.125 billion, the hurricanes increased poverty levels in
inflated prices for staples and fresh foods (Famine Early Warning Sys­ Honduras (Food Security Information Network, 2021). A large propor­
tems Network, 2020). tion of people working in the informal sector, who lack employee ben­
efits, relied on food assistance to avoid hunger. It’s worth emphasizing
2.1.3. Food acceptability that these events affected many households already suffering from
The COVID-19 pandemic also triggered drivers of food insecurity reduced income sources due to COVID-19 restrictions (Famine Early
related to food acceptability, which includes food safety, nutritional Warning Systems Network, 2020).
adequacy, and cultural appropriateness. With a collapsed health system,
maintaining health standards to prevent foodborne diseases was

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2.2.3. Food acceptability criminal groups blocking humanitarian aid) and indirect (e.g., increased
The hurricanes also affected food acceptability. Significant damage food prices due to higher input prices) and are interconnected with
to water and sanitation infrastructure led to the destruction of waste ongoing vulnerabilities related to both climate change and COVID-19.
management facilities and contamination of water sources. As a result,
food safety risks and the occurrence of infectious diseases (including 3. Discussion
diarrhea and COVID-19) were heightened, especially among those living
in shelters (OCHA, 2020). As humanitarian organizations and interna­ The prior sections describe how the COVID-19 pandemic, climate
tional aid began mobilizing support, food baskets and other in-kind change, and conflict have affected food availability, accessibility, and
donations were redirected to those most affected by the hurricanes. acceptability in Honduras, approaching each “branch” of the food sys­
With the aim of supporting as many people as possible, well-intentioned tem disruption analysis separately. Fig. 1 summarizes how each branch
international food donations were indiscriminately received and has ultimately been impacted by multiple, overlapping crises—for
included massive quantities of infant formula. Given that powdered or example, in-kind food assistance in Honduras has been affected by the
liquid concentrated infant formula needs to be mixed with water, the pandemic, hurricanes, and violent conflict. Some disruptions impact
proliferation of infant formula combined with post-hurricane water multiple dimensions of food security, and there are also interactions
contamination issues exacerbated the risk of infectious disease in in­ between the branches shown in Fig. 1. For example, food production or
fants. As reports of infant formula donations and distribution prolifer­ retail disruptions may influence household income for workers in the
ated, UNICEF and the Pan-American Health Organization released a food system (Béné, 2020; Martínez and Young, 2022). The closure of
joint statement to promote breastfeeding and discourage the acquisition markets can have multifaceted impacts on retail-level food availability,
of these products (PAHO and UNICEF, 2020). Additionally, within physical access to food, and economic access. For example, fruit, vege­
hurricane-related relief efforts there was little to no capacity to provide table, meat, and poultry producers in Honduras were the most affected
medically tailored meals and nutritionally adequate foods for people by market closures: they had to invest in cold chains to avoid food waste
living with chronic diseases and vulnerable groups (e.g., children under but inevitably had losses (El Heraldo, 2020). Food price changes in
5, pregnant and lactating women). multiple countries during the pandemic were driven by a range of fac­
tors including supply shortages (influenced in part by shifts in consumer
2.3. Conflict demand and available market channels) and higher distribution costs
(influenced in part by labor shortages) (Bairagi et al., 2022; Boy­
2.3.1. International conflict acι-Gündüz et al., 2021; Hirvonen et al., 2021). In Honduras, prices for
Violent conflicts have negative impacts on food systems and food eggs, red beans, cabbage, potatoes, and cassava experienced a surge of
security (FAO, 2016). Even amidst the calamitous impact of the over 10% in 2020 relative to the preceding year (Diaz-Bonilla et al.,
COVID-19 pandemic, global armed conflicts were the main driver of 2021). Additionally, events that affect food acceptability—such as the
worldwide hunger in 2020 (Delgado et al., 2021). The major escalation need for safe food in the aftermath of hurricane events that contaminate
of conflict between Russia and Ukraine starting in February 2022 has water—can place additional strain on the logistics of food supply chains
had particular impact on low- and middle-income countries (United and in-kind food assistance. In Honduras, infrastructure destruction
Nations, 2022), including major repercussions for food security in from Hurricanes Eta and Iota had far-reaching effects on the contami­
Honduras (Lara-Arévalo and Vega, 2022). Prior to the Russia-Ukraine nation of water systems such as wells and latrines across Central
conflict, Honduras imported half of its fertilizer from Russia. As of America, which ultimately exposed over 1.5 million children to infec­
April 2022, fertilizer prices were 90% higher than the previous year due tious disease risk (UNICEF, 2021).
to global sanctions and armed conflict (OCHA, 2020). Additionally, In addition to the interconnected impacts on food security, there are
global fuel prices have skyrocketed since the conflict began and inflation interconnections between “the three Cs.” COVID-19 is one of many
is expected to be the highest since 2000 (Reuters, 2022). Higher fertil­ emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic origins (Judson and Rabi­
izer and fuel prices affect food production and distribution costs, nowitz, 2021), and climate change has been implicated in the spread of
resulting in higher retail food prices which further limit the household zoonotic diseases through its impacts on animal and vector habitats (e.
purchasing power of communities that have not recovered from the g., as a result of biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation) and human
economic hardships of COVID-19 and the 2020 hurricanes. Higher fuel behavior (e.g., increased human-wildlife interaction, or increased urban
prices also affect the purchasing power of organizations providing density from climate displacement that facilitates disease transmission)
in-kind food assistance; in 2022, the cost of importing and mobilizing (Hueffer et al., 2013; Lorentzen et al., 2020; Mishra et al., 2021; Sachan
one metric ton of Specialized Nutritious Foods increased around 50% and Singh, 2010; Wolfe et al., 2005). Climate change may also be linked
compared to 2021 (per WFP internal analysis). to conflict, due to resource scarcity and its social and economic conse­
quences (Koubi, 2019). In Honduras, some of the most severe impacts of
2.3.2. Domestic conflict Hurricanes Eta and Iota were in regions that already had high levels of
Domestic conflicts have also affected Honduras’ food security. violence and poverty (UNICEF, 2021), and news outlets reported a lack
Honduras has been classified as one of the most violent countries in the of protocols for assisting survivors of gender-based violence that
world (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime); between 2004 and occurred in hurricane shelters (Miranda, 2020).
2018, gang violence led to internal displacement of 247,000 people Conflict and COVID-19 are also connected: while the pandemic
(Food Security Information Network, 2021). This situation has increased temporarily attenuated conflict in some settings (e.g., less armed conflict
migration to urban areas, which have been unprepared to meet rising due to curfews, or through opportunities for “disaster diplomacy” be­
demands of resources and employment. Rapid urban migration has tween countries), it may have intensified violence in others, (Bloem and
implications for both physical access to food (e.g., availability of re­ Salemi, 2021; Ide, 2021; Lehrs, 2021), and conflict zones already
tailers in new peri-urban areas) and economic access to food (e.g., dis­ struggling with health systems infrastructure were particularly chal­
ruptions to income as households seek new livelihoods). The economic lenged in carrying out strategies for COVID-19 diagnostics, treatment,
crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricanes Eta and Iota and prevention (Dhabaan et al., 2020). For instance, criminal groups in
also gave rise to increased criminal group operations, which blocked Honduras impeded the provision of humanitarian aid during the
humanitarian aid and extorted civilians to benefit from their resources COVID-19 emergency and coerced civilians into surrendering resources
in some communities (Norwegian Refugee Council, 2020), representing for their benefit (Norwegian Refugee Council, 2020).
challenges to food availability. Overall, the impacts of global and do­ COVID-19 strategies have also been hindered by climate-related
mestic conflict on food security in Honduras are both direct (e.g., events; in the midst of evacuations for Hurricanes Eta and Iota, for

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example, physical distancing and other precautions were often not local, national, and global work on food system resilience including
possible in temporary shelters (Fromm et al., 2022). The hurricanes also work by local governments (Zeuli and Nijhuis, 2017; Biehl et al., 2017);
impeded public health efforts by damaging hospital infrastructure investigations into the impacts of COVID-19 and other disasters on food
including potable water and cold chain equipment for vaccines (PAHO system resilience (Fan et al., 2021; Béné, 2020; Blay-Palmer et al.,
and WHO, 2020). Gender-based violence, which affects household food 2021); and explorations into the opportunities, challenges, and appli­
security (Okpara and Anugwa, 2022), can be impacted by changing cations of food systems resilience (Meyer, 2020; Zurek et al., 2022, Miles
social and economic dynamics within households as a result of both and Hoy, 2023). New tools based on food system disruption analysis can
climate change (Caridade et al., 2022) and the COVID-19 pandemic be used not just for a one-time analysis, but as an ongoing resource to
(Chandan et al., 2020); Honduras saw a 14% increase in reports of build resilient food systems that promote food security (Moore et al.,
gender-based violence between February and May 2022 (Fromm et al., 2023).
2022). Scholars have described “the three Cs” as “uneven crises” with This article presents an updated framework for food system disrup­
compounding, inequitable impacts on vulnerable populations including tion analysis that is intended to be broadly applicable to low-, middle-,
women, lower-income households, racially/ethnically marginalized and high-income country settings. This application of the food system
groups, and communities in climate hotspots (Belsey-Priebe et al., 2021; disruption analysis to Honduras also demonstrates the impact of mul­
Sultana, 2021). tiple, overlapping food systems shocks and stressors and interactions
This case study illustrates the powerful and intertwined impacts of across food system components. Here we focused on a national scale, but
the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and conflict on food insecurity food system disruption analysis can also be applied to a state/depart­
in Honduras. This case study also reinforces the value of a food system ment, region, watershed, or foodshed, for example, for greater granu­
disruption analysis, which enables planners, emergency relief providers, larity and understanding of impacts. This case study illustrates the need
policymakers, and researchers to systematically and comprehensively to expand our preventative and relief efforts to account for the syner­
consider how population-level food insecurity can result from a gistic impacts of multiple crises on food insecurity; solutions addressing
confluence of overlapping acute shocks and chronic stressors to the food only a single issue are unlikely to meaningfully promote food security.
system. In this case study, events lower on the tree and closer to the We encourage planners, providers of emergency relief, policymakers,
direct effects of crises (e.g., crop losses or movement restrictions) and researchers to use food system disruption analysis to not only di­
cascaded upward to higher-level system outcomes such as a lack of food agnose and anticipate a range of hazards that may hinder food security,
access and, ultimately, increased food insecurity. The number of people but to also inform the design of interventions to strengthen food systems
living in severe food insecurity in 13 comparable departments of resilience.
Honduras (among 18 departments in the country) rose from 962,000 to
2.4 million between February 2020 and September 2021 (Food Security Research support
Information Network, 2022); these estimates do not even reflect the
impact of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, nor do they cover the entire This research received no external financial or non-financial support.
country population. This increase in food insecurity resulted not from a
single event, but from the confluence of multiple crises. While a food Relationships
system disruption analysis can identify and anticipate negative events, it
can also identify critical points of intervention and highlight the There are no additional relationships to disclose.
cascading benefits of positive events. Efforts for livelihood recuperation
are underway in areas heavily impacted by Hurricanes Eta and Iota. Patents and intellectual property
Development programs implemented by the Honduran government,
local organizations and international agencies have prevented thou­ There are no patents to disclose.
sands from experiencing more severe food insecurity, while also
increasing food access, especially among vulnerable populations. Other activities
Encouragingly, projections for the number of people anticipated to be in
Crisis (Integrated Phase Classification Phase 3 and above, indicating There are no additional activities to disclose.
acute food insecurity) decreased from 3.3 million projected as of 2021 to
2.6 million projected as of August 2022 (Integrated Food Security Phase Funding
Classification, 2022). These more favorable projections have been
attributed to multiple factors including economic reactivation (i.e., This research did not receive any specific grant from funding
increased remittances) and development programs. Food systems agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. At the time
experiencing multiple crises are not succeeding or failing in a binary of writing, J. Lara-Arévalo was supported by a scholarship from The
fashion; for every negative impact highlighted in this case study are Fulbright Program and E.R.H. Moore was supported by the National
instances of resilience. Institute of Environmental Health Sciences training program.
Though the food system disruption analysis displayed in Fig. 1 does
not capture every single factor contributing to food security, nor every
Declaration of competing interest
connection between these factors, in detailing the interwoven nature of
these food system disruptions and their effects on population-level food
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
security, we hope to amplify the call to action for greater inter-sectoral,
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
inter-agency, and inter-disciplinary collaboration in efforts to
the work reported in this paper.
strengthen the resilience of food systems to ongoing and future crises. A
food system disruption analysis can help stakeholders identify compo­
Data availability
nents of food security that are particularly susceptible to disruption and
where resilience to crises may require coordinated efforts from multiple
No data was used for the research described in the article.
agencies or sectors. For example, seeing that economic access to food in
Honduras has multiple drivers and impacts across multiple branches of
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