13th International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making 2017, Bath, UK

Exploring the Decision Making of Police Officers

ABSTRACT
Identifying the cognitive processes underlying investigative decision making in cases of child abuse
is vital for reducing risk to safeguarding and justice through improved training. Despite this, very
little research has been conducted into this specialised field. This study begins to address this gap
by intitially exploring the decision making of four British Senior Investigating Offciers (SIOs)
during challenging cases of child abuse using Cognitive Task Analysis methods. Whilst a range of
cognitive, situational and organisational factors were identified as impacting on the decision making
of the investigators, safeguarding was considered to be ‘paramount’ despite conflict with traditional
investigative goals. This study provides some insight into the investigative decision making
processes of specialist teams, but should be considered as a pilot study which will inform the design
and provide a rationale for the proposal of a larger, more comprehensive study into SIO decision
making in cases of child abuse.

KEYWORDS
Decision Making; Policing; Cognitive Task Analysis; Child Abuse Investigation.

INTRODUCTION
Child abuse has become and ever growing social problem. The NSPCC (2015) has estimated that, whilst the extent
of child abuse in the UK may never be fully understood due to the hidden nature of such events, more than 57,000
children are currently at risk and in need of protection. This figure shows a significant increase from 2011 where
only 50,000 children had been identified (NSPCC, 2015). Furthermore, the NSPCC identified that 47,000 of these
cases were corded sexual offences against children (Bently, O’Hagan, Raff & Behatti, 2016).

The police service are one of the key stakeholders when it comes to protecting lives of children (NPIA, 2009), but
they are the only agency that can investigate and take effective action against suspected offenders. When the police
investigate allegations of child abuse there are specialist teams available to complete the investigations. In more
current cases with relevance to child sexual abuse cases, there is the ability for the collection and use of forensics
(i.e. ceasing of clothing, DNA examination and, where appropriate, medical examinations carried out by specialist
doctors). Statements from victims are a critical part of the investigation and are usually taken by the first responder
once the initial call comes in; further from here, video interviews are obtained at later stage of the investigation
process. After all the evidence is gathered the decision to prosecute or not is in the hands of Crown Prosecution
Service (CPS) who consider whether there is a possible conviction, and whether the prosecution is in the public
interest (Citizens Advice, n.d.).

In order to fulfil the needs of investigating child abuse cases, it is essential that all police officers are confident in
identifying child abuse and in their response to this identification in order to safeguard and promote the welfare of
children, as well as protect their right to justice (NPIA 2009). High profile cases in the news in which the police,
and other affiliated services, failed to protect children from abuse at the hands of parents and family members
highlight the impact that police investigative failings can have on the victim, the family, the community and the
wider general public. High profile cases in which this has occurred include the deaths of Poppi Worthington and
Daniel Pelka. In both of these cases, a large number of potential opportunities for safeguarding of these children
were missed by the Police, the NHS, social services and the school system. After the childrens’ deaths, a further
set of opportunities for justice were missed by the same agencies. In the case of Poppi Worthington, a High Court
judge concluded that 12 basic Police failings had denied Poppi justice and that this was failure is un-recoverable
due to lost opportunities to collect evidence at the time (i.e. missed opportunities to collect vital evidence, failure
to secure the family home and delayed family interviews). The need for change within Police processes during
child abuse and child death investigations have been strongly stated by the NSPCC who declared, “No child must
ever be failed again in this way” (Rayner, 2016).

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Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) research examines how people make decisions in highly demanding and
complex real-world situations, including how they can use personal experience to deal with challenging factors
such as time pressures and restrictions, uncertainty, goals and objectives, internal organisational pressures and
possible team conflicts (Klein, 2008). As a cognitively complex task, which is typically associated with situational
challenges such as time pressure, uncertainty and high stakes, police investigation can be considered an NDM
working environment.

In a qualitative comparison of British and Norwegian detectives, Fahsing and Ask (2013) identified 14 situational
factors that impacted their decision making. These included; time pressure (the need to “wrap up the case”),
availability of information and evidence, external pressure and community impacts (“reputation of entire
Norwegian police force on your shoulders”), internal pressure (high workload) and organisational issues (Fahsing
& Ask, 2013, p. 160). In support of these findings, research has shown that increased time pressure can negatively
affect a decision maker’s flexibility by reducing ability to generate alternative hypotheses and hypothesis testing
strategies (Alison, Doran, Long, Power & Humphreys, 2013). Furthermore, when investigators are under time
pressure, they have been found to seek hypothesis-consistent information to confirm initial beliefs regarding a
crime, thereby avoiding hypothesis generation (Ask & Granhag, 2005). Whilst uncertainty and framing of
information has been found to impact on evidence search strategies and interview question style, resulting in search
strategies based on initial assessment of guilt or innocence (Hill, Memon & George, 2008; Rassin, Eerland &
Kuijpers, 2010).

Fashing and Ask (2013) also identified 10 individual factors that impacted on investigative decision making. These
included; experience (“best friend but also worst enemy”), personal characteristics (“investigative mind-set is
vital”) and training and education (Fahsing & Ask, 2013, p. 161). Such individual factors can be influenced by
cognitive capacity overload which may reduce controlled processing ability and therefore impact decision making
reliability (Kleider-Offutt, Clevinger & Bond, 2016), as well as vulnerability to forms of cognitive heuristics and
bias (Croskerry, 2013). In their review of child abuse inquiry reports, Munro (1999) found evidence of both the
availability heuristic (assessments of risk were based on a narrow range of evidence biased towards the information
readily available and more memorable) and confirmation bias (a critical attitude towards evidence was found to
correlate with whether or not new information supported existing views) in the risk assessment decisions of child
protection professionals. Whilst this research is very dated now, it does suggest that errors in professional
reasoning in child protection work are predictable on the basis of decision making and heuristics research
(Kahneman & Klein, 2009; Tversky & Kahneman, 1975). If this is the case, errors may be reduced through
training, i.e. implementing aids that recognise the central role of intuitive reasoning but offer systematic methods
to reduce bias (Munro, 1999) or via high fidelity stress exposure training (Alison et al., 2013). However, currently
there is little research examining this area of decision making, therefore in order to be able to recommend ways to
improve decision making and avoid bias in these settings, first we must understand the processes involved in this
domain through research.

The aim of this pilot study was to begin to identify the key decisional processes involved in the decision making
of expert British SIOs during the investigation of child abuse cases in order to serve as guidance for further, more
in depth, empirical evaluation. NDM research has promoted the study of expertise to highlight efficient decision-
making techniques, which can be promoted and learnt from. The use of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) qualitative
research methods can be used to generate meaningfully informed hypotheses suited to subsequent empirical testing
(Wiltshire, Neville, Lauth, Rinkinen & Ramirez, 2014). For the present purposes, CTA methods are used as
exploratory means to derive an integrated theoretical framework, which can then be tested empirically in future
studies and contribute to the current evidence-based policing agenda. This approach is hoped to result in more
informed policing and directed resources towards not only areas and issues that require it the most, but also in a
way that has been found to be efficient.

METHOD
Design
This exploratory study employed CTA methods to qualitatively examine the decision making of British SIO’s
during the investigation of child abuse. Through consideration of the available CTA knowledge elicitation
techniques it was decided that an interview protocol based on the Critical Decision Method (CDM) interview
protocol would be most suitable to retrospectively examine the decision making processes of SIOs during a
previously experienced investigation of child abuse which they considered to be non-routine. The CDM (Crandall,
Klein, & Hoffman, 2006) is structured as an intensive incident based interview protocol which aims to identify the
decision making processes involved in the judgments made during a ‘challenging’ incident that have been
personally experienced. CDM has been used in a number of studies to identify the strategies, expertise, and
knowledge requirements involved in other critical decision making situations which have led to important insights
for designing better decision aids (see Wong & Blandford, 2002).

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Sample
A total of four SIOs (all male) voluntarily participated in this study. Whilst this sample size is small, this is in line
with many CTA studies which are typically based on a small sample size (<10) due to the large amounts of
qualitative data that are generated by these approaches and limited access to experts of specific fields of interest
(see Wiltshire et al., 2014). Furthermore, it is emphasised that this study is aimed to serve as a pilot upon which
future research can be designed. All of the SIOs in this sample can be considered as experts as they work on a
specialist team that deal with child abuse cases on a day-to-day basis, have led cases, have had specialist training
and have national accreditation. Demographic data relating to the SIOs were not collected to protect anonymity.
Prior to data collection, ethical approval was gained and each participant signed informed consent.

Materials
In order to conduct the analysis, permission was sought to record interviews in audio format using a Dictaphone
(Olympus: WS-852). The participants were informed of this procedure before signing consent forms. The
interviews were conducted guided by a script. Qualitative data analysis software NVivo 11 (QSR International)
was used to assist the qualitative analysis of the current studies.

Procedure
Access was granted from the head of the Force Major Investigations Team at Lancashire Constabulary, but
emphasis was placed on the importance of officer anonymity. To protect anonymity, no demographic information
was collected and participant numbers were used throughout analysis. Data collection consisted of semi-structured
interviews using a CDM based script. Each participant was asked to walk through a ‘challenging’ and non-routine
case of child abuse investigation that they have personally experienced as a SIO. The interviews were conducted
in the officers’ workplace. Each interview lasted between 45-60 minutes.

Data Analysis
All audio recordings were transcribed and the transcripts were reviewed for accuracy immediately after collection.
The data analysis reflected a framework analysis methodology, which allowed for both a ‘top-down’ (theory-
driven) approach and a ‘bottom-up’ (data-driven) identification of emergent patterns (Wiltshire et al., 2014).
Firstly, the data set was read multiple times whilst considering issues which appeared to be relevant to the analysis.
The interview transcripts were then inductively coded for repeated ideas, which were reviewed and grouped into
themes and subthemes. This process was iterative and was conducted by the named author.

RESULTS
The data collected referred to the investigation of child abuse within a family environment, three of the cases were
current cases and one referred to historic offences. All of the cases (n=4) had successful convictions at court, with
all suspected offenders pleading guilty and concluding with custodial sentences. When looking at the work styles
only one participant worked on the investigation as a single detective rather than as part of a team. In addition to
this only one participant attended the investigation as an initial responder. In all cases discussed, the victim of the
abuse was female and under the age of 13, whilst the suspect in all cases was male and 18 years or older. In two
cases, the suspect was the victim’s brother, one suspect was the victim’s uncle and in one case the suspect was a
non-blood relation at the same group home. In three cases, the abuse included rape; however, the offense type was
not disclosed in the one other case. The analysis identified three themes, each with related subthemes. These
themes included; (i) cognitive factors, (ii) situational factors, and (iii) organisational factors.

Cognitive Factors
All SIOs discussed cognitive factors which impacted on their decision making. These included; (i) prioritisation
(safeguarding vs. investigation), (ii) information gathering, (iii) intuitive first judgments and, (iv) the considered
need to remain impartial and adaptive to re-evaluation. The results highlighted the difference between the
participants in the factors they feel should lead their investigations, specifically in relation to the decision to
prioritise safeguarding or the need for an investigative result. All four participants referred to this. Whilst the
investigative result was acknowledged to be a significant factor, this was often discussed in relation to the
importance that other officers gave to it, whereas the three participants expressed the paramount need for
safeguarding to be the forefront of the investigation at all times;
P1: “The main priority at the time was safeguarding, (…) the paramount decision at that point is to safeguard
those children in case he still posed to any of them (…) A lot of times in the office we have conversations about
investigations coming over safeguarding (…) I am very safeguarding minded, whereas many officers want to
get the investigation.”
P2: “I would say we have to look at the best interest of the child, whereas sergeants or inspectors will look at
the best interests of the investigation (…) I am quite victim centred as some of my colleague are, whereas
higher ranking officers aren’t as concerned about what’s best for the victim but there is more concern about
what is best for the case instead.”

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P3: “Safeguarding is paramount and nowadays it tends to come before the investigation.”

Information gathering to serve as evidence was, understandably, an action described by all participants. This
occurred via multiple processes, including; initial response intelligence, conducting ABE (Achieving Best
Evidence) interviews and forensic examination. Forensic examination and collection of evidence for forensic
testing was highlighted as being extremely important to all participants, except the participant who discussed a
historic case;

P4: “we needed to establish what was going on to progress anything else, sometimes the logs aren’t always
accurate, sometimes the comms operator misheard things or typing errors (…) From then on it was about getting
as much evidence as we could for a trial (…) we would ask for fingernail cuttings, request his clothing, we
would do the swabs (…) the key thing was the forensics in this case.”
P2: “In order to move forward what we did was the forensics first.”

When considering the decision making processes involved, three of the participants expressed that there was an
initial intuitive judgement from the case briefing information based on recognition of key cues;

P3: “because of who she was, as bad as that sounds (…) I’m not saying you would stereotype but I suppose it
would have an influence on some of the actions and how you would go about dealing with that person and the
case in its early stages.”
P4: “Sometimes you can judge it and see if it’s going to be much of a job or not and that’s more from
experiences of what you had dealt with an the things that have been said.”

However, it was also made clear by the same thee participants that the need to remain impartial and to re-evaluate
judgments as the case continuously develops was at the forefront of their investigation. Here, the SIOs demonstrate
knowledge of the need to be able to adapt cognitive processes and revisit and/or reject initial intuitive judgements
in light of new information;

P1: “it was a consideration that it could have been a revenge report, it couldn’t be investigated in that manner
it has to be investigated impartially.”
P3: “it never always goes to plan. There are certain things that change.”
P4: “It could be helpful, it could be unhelpful, so we have to remain impartial (…) you’ve just got to take it
step by step. Sometimes bits of information come in and send you off on completely different leads than you
ever thought there would be, and you literally have the whole investigation changed before you. It’s completely
continuous you literally just don’t know.”

Situational Factors
All participants expressed their concerns with regards to NDM related situational factors that led or affected their
ability to make decisions. These situational factors included; time pressure, conflicting options, ‘luck’, impact, as
well as welfare and safeguarding considerations. Time pressure was reported by all four participants as being
influential in their decision making. This manifested in the form of custody and bail timings, as well forensic
examination and evidence collection time constraints. Furthermore, it was highlighted that when dealing with
victims who are very young, time pressure also arises in terms of deciding when ABE interviews should be
conducted considering the amount of time these, in addition of forensic examinations can take and how tired young
children can get, especially after experiencing trauma;

P1: “we can’t have people on bail for long anymore, and that decision has been taken out of our hands
by the government (…) we have to get authority from out superintendent to extend to extend that bail, if they
don’t agree they are released no charge (…) so there are definitely time pressures in terms of bail.”
P2: “we did have to consider the time restraints because she is only five and should we really be interviewing
a child after a certain time? (…) forensically there was time pressures definitely (…) then we have the added
pressure of custody time restrains.”
P4: “it’s a really long process and that’s why he was kept in custody because we couldn’t charge him without
her interview and full detailed account.”
Long-term time pressure was also recounted. Two participants discussed feeling external pressure to conclude
cases of child abuse to achieve justice as quickly as possible and highlighted how this conflicts with the need to
conduct a thorough investigation, especially with the amount of intelligence which is generated online, i.e. social
media;

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P1: “I think we are always under pressure to make decisions, especially in child abuse cases as the courts,
family and the police want these sort of cases dealing with as quickly as possible. The reality of it is, that these
cases are the ones that take the most length of time. So there is never a quick outcome to these cases, they could
quite easily take two years to investigate.”
P3: “from time the investigation starts to the time he was convicted and sentenced it was probably eighteen
months so as much as you do feel the pressure, it just takes time”.

Uncertainty and conflicting options were highlighted by three of the participants as an additional and influencing
pressure. However, interestingly, three officers also referred explicitly to luck playing a crucial part in the decisions
made and outcomes of the investigation;
P1: “we had to make a decision about how do we deal with her, treat her as a witness or a suspect? That was a
really important decision, how we were best to do it (…) I mean luckily in this case this suspect pleaded guilty
at the earliest opportunity (…) if I’m honest with you that is the key decision in the case that actually swayed
him to plead guilty”.
P3: “luckily in this case because the social worker, or should I say two were already involved they played the
role in ensuring that she was safeguarded”.
P4: “I was quite lucky because I was there right from the beginning”.

Furthermore, consequential impact of any decision made was reported to be thoroughly considered. This impact
manifested in terms of cost (i.e. of running certain forensics tests) and in terms of community impact and potential
threat, either from community members towards a suspect if they are released on bail, or towards a
community/children in that community from a suspect;

P4: “should we send the condom off to see if her DNA was on the outside. But logically, its cost implicated
and we believed he would plead guilty.”
P2: “But then we also have to look at the fact that offender lived round the corner from the alleged victim and
we also had a lot of community issues as well (…) We had already been told by family members that if he went
back to that area there would be consequences, so we had to look at the community impact if we allowed him
back into that area with those bail conditions (…) No it’s relatively quick, it’s very costly but it’s quick.”
Overwhelmingly, welfare and safeguarding considerations were reported to be the biggest influential factor on
decision making during the cases recalled. All four SIOs discussed this and in addition to safeguarding being
referred to many times within the transcripts, it was emphasised strongly within the content of the description as
being ‘paramount’ to the investigation;

P1: “the main priority at that time was the actual safeguarding of any children in the case. For example our
victim was alleging that she has been sexually abuse by her brother, I found out that her brother currently has
his own children that are also female. So paramount decision at that point was to safeguard those children in
case he still posed a risk.”
P2: “the uncle [suspect] also had children of his own who were a similar age to our victim which again is
imperative in the case because we have got to look at safeguarding, which is paramount”.
P3: “safeguarding is paramount and nowadays it tends to come before the investigation”.

Organisational Factors
Organisational factors that influenced SIO decision making broadly involved multi-agency conflict and factors
that related to team decision making. Conflicting aims and differing needs with social service and the CPS in
particular, was reported by three participants to have put additional pressure (both time and workload) on the
officer and the investigation or created additional considerations to be made:

P1: “There are pressures from CPS. When we put in advice files, or take a case to them, it is very often they
will give us a further action plan and are given a time limit to do that. We then have to balance that action plan
alongside our other cases.”
P2: “He was going to be bailed, so we had to fight with CPS, which was another issue”
P3: “nowadays within what we do in the CSE [child sexual exploitation] office, they [social services] are a
massive stakeholder and partner for us, I’d probably say we are in contact with them on a daily basis, more
than other department in the police, we work with them very closely. Even now though it can be difficult and
that communication isn’t as fluid as it should be, sometimes might happen and it be three of four weeks before
we get that information through”.
Instances and descriptions of team conflict, processes of team decision-making and verbal development of shared
mental models were discussed by three participants. The cases being discussed were all described as involving no
team conflict, however this was caveated with descriptions how team conflict is typical in other cases. For the

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most part, this conflict was described positively as a way to generate and discuss ideas, reflect on options and
develop shared mental models in order to facilitate team decision making;

P1: “there wasn’t any conflict in terms of decisions. We were all singing from the same hymn sheet. There is
often in this sort of investigation a difference of opinions from supervisors and officers in the case, but a lot of
the time we sit and trash the ideas out and come up with a plan we are all comfortable with.”
P2: “people do have differences of opinion and sometimes we are railroaded down a certain path which
sometimes we don’t think is the right one.”
P3: “I thrive off discussions and I personally would always value someone else’s opinion on a job, two heads
are better than one. Discussion is important so I would always much rather prefer that prior to making a
decision.”

DISCUSSION
The aim of the study was to explore the decision making process within an investigative setting in cases of child
abuse within the family environment. The results support past research that emphasise the impact of complex
situational demands such as time restraints, uncertainty and organisational pressures on the decision making that
occurs in investigative settings (Fahsing & Ask, 2013).

Whilst early information framing was found to impact of SIOs initial intuitive hypotheses in relation to case
legitimacy (Hill et al., 2008; Munro, 1999; Rassin et al., 2010), the officers in this sample were able to remain
‘impartial’ via their recognition of the continuous and changing nature of such cases. In this sense, the sample
were able to retain cognitive flexibility (Diamond, 2013; Ward, Ericsson & Williams, 2012) to adapt existing
hypotheses and generate new ones in response to new information. This reflect adaptive expertise (Klein & Jarosz,
2011; Kozlowski, 1998; Morrison, Wiggins, Bond & Tyler, 2013) and has been found in other policing context
such as the expert decision making of Specialised Firearms Officers (Boulton & Cole, 2016).

A key finding expressed as being important to the decision making of all participants in this sample is the approach
taken to child sex abuse cases in the modern day; decision-making should always be made whilst keeping
safeguarding at the forefront of the mind. The participants explained that in cases with children, there needs to be
additional care taken due to the age, intellectual ability and anxiety levels that can be found in children that are
faced with the prospects of a criminal investigation after making a complaint. However, it was also acknowledge
that the decision to prioritise safeguarding can often conflict with the investigative goals of higher-ranking officers
and time pressure in both the short and long term. Whilst the need of the investigation to ensure justice for the
victims was understood by the sample, the participants reflected that due to the face to face work that they do with
those involved in child sex abuse cases, their mind-set had changed to prioritise the people involved rather than
the investigative outcome. They believed that this does, and should, lead their decision making process.

Limitations
It should be noted that analysis is based on only four participants, all recruited from a department within the same
British Police force. Although it is acknowledged that generalisability is a shortcoming, SIOs investigating child
abuse are a very specific group of decision makers and as such, generalisation to a larger population is not a major
consideration (McAndrew & Gore, 2013). However, it is possible that these results represent force-specific SIO
decision-making themes and a larger sample generated across UK wide forces could help decipher the
generalisation of these findings more accurately. Future research may seek to clarify these issues through
replication with officers across different forces to examine these themes more thoroughly.

CONCLUSION
The results show that the paramount factors in investigative decision making in these cases of child abuse is the
broader duty of safeguarding the children involved. However, time restrictions and organisational pressures to
generate an investigative result can affect this. This study provides some insight into the decision making process
on specialist teams to deal with such crimes, but should be considered as a pilot study which will inform the design
and provide a rationale for the proposal of a larger, more comprehensive study into the decision making of SIO’s
in cases of child abuse and child death investigation.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank Lancashire Constabulary for supporting this project and organising access to participants.We also thank
Olivia Bloomfield for collecting and transcribing the data presented in this paper.

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