Mede Journal
Mede Journal
Mede Journal
Assessment of wind energy potential for power generation in Benin based on Weil bull distribution
Ogbeide OO, Ikpoza E, Eboigbe CI
Department of Production Engineering University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
Abstract
Energy has been and will continue to be the driver of economy of a nation. In sharp contrast, our country Nigeria is being faced
with energy poverty. This may accrue to, in part, over reliance conventional energy sources such as hydro power, fuels and gas etc.
So, there is need to take into consideration the renewable energy as potential alternative for power generation. This work seeks to
assess the wind energy potential of Edo state using a statistical method, two-parameter Weibull distribution function. The detailed
knowledge of the wind characteristics at a site is very crucial to install and estimate the performance of a wind energy project. The
monthly and yearly highest mean wind speeds were 3.28 m/s and 2.91 m/s respectively. The monthly highest values of the Weibull
shape parameter (k) and the Weibull scale parameter (c) were 5.79 and 4.11 m/s. The maximum wind power density was found to
be 26.76 W/m2 for the year 2008.The most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy were estimated 2.84
m/s and 4.53 m/s in 2015. The result of the study shows that the wind energy potential of Edo state is quite low for electricity
generation based on the two-year wind data analysed. It is suggested that this research area should be intensified by collecting
wind speed data at various locations sufficient to define its potential for power generation.
Keywords: wind, energy, wind energy, wind speed, weibull distribution, power generation
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
initiatives, in the limits of their uncertainties, have identified information to estimate wind turbine performance at a given
that great prospects exist for wind energy utilization for geographical location.
power. Fadare (2008) [6] carriedout a statistical analysis of
wind energy potential in Ibadan in Oyo State of Nigeria, using 2. Methodology
the Weibull distribution function and 10 years daily wind 2.1 Research design
speed data from the period of 1995 to 2004. He reported an The research design set out to evaluate the wind energy
average wind speed and power density of 2.947 m/sand potential for power generation. Wind speed is essentially the
15.484 W/m2 for the City. Fagbenle et al. (2011) [7] carried out major input that determine the output of a given wind turbine.
an assessment of wind energy potential of Maiduguri and As a consequence of this single factor, it is necessary to have
Potiskum, two sites in north-east Nigeria with 21 years the knowledge of the wind speed characteristics. This is to say
monthly mean wind data at 10m height based on weibull that, variability of wind speed in a typical region is important
distribution and found out that the average monthly mean as its consideration will the efficiency and performance of
wind speed variation for potiskum ranged from 3.90 to wind turbine. Research design contains the population of
5.85m/s, while for Maiduguri ranged from 5.10 to 5.59m/s and study, samples, sampling techniques and methods of analysis
The wind power density ranged from 102.54 to 300.13w/m2 alongside respective theoretical formulations on the statistical
for potiskum and it ranged from 114.77 to 360.04w/m2 for methods of analysis. The statistical tools employed in this
Maiduguri. Ojosu and Salawu (1990) [12] presented a statistical work, is Weibull distribution analysis. For this research, Benin
and cost benefit analysis of wind energy availability in City is considered as the sample, within which wind speed
different parts of the country, 15 years monthly averages data are collected. Then, the population of study is Edo state.
(1968-1983) were used. In their analysis, he used weibull
distribution methods for all the stations Maiyama et al. (2013) 2.2 Source of data collection
[8]
carried out assessment of wind energy potentials for In this study, we use 2 years (2015 to 2016) daily averages of
Electricity Generation in Sokoto, Nigeria with wind data for wind speed data at 10 m meteorological height, for Benin
one year (2010), and found that the average annual wind speed (6.4°N; 7.0°E),obtained from the data bank of Nigerian
for the year was 5.15m/s which is sufficient for electricity Meteorological Agency (NIMET) located at Benin local
generation. Odo et al. (2013) [9] developed regression time airport. The data gives information on the daily average wind
series models for predicting wind potential for wind energy speed distributions of the locations over the study period, from
applications in rural locations of Nigeria and found out that which the monthly and yearly average data were calculated for
wind speed correlates with ambient temperature in simple the current analysis.
polynomial of 3rd degree. Dikko and Yahaya (2012) [4], carried
out evaluation of wind power density in Gombe, Yola and 2.3 Sample and sampling techniques
Maiduguri, Nigeria using 12years monthly wind speed As started earlier, the population of the study is Edo state.
covering period of 1994 to 2005 based on weibull and Raleigh Benin airport is the geographical zone at which cup
distribution and found out that weibull distribution give best anemometer readings of wind speed data were collected. The
fit model that describes the wind speed data at 10m height sampling technique is purposive. Since wind speed is a
than the Raleigh models. Osatohanmwen et al. (2016) [13] random variable, for this reason statistical techniques is used.
carried out a statistical analysis of wind Energy potential in In this study, Benin Airport is the geographical location for
Benin city using the 2 parameters weibull distribution the modelling.
results obtained indicate that weibull distribution provides a
very good fit for the data, and also Benin city lies in the low 2.4 Method of data analysis
wind speed Zone of the country with a relatively small wind Statistical method of Weibull distribution function analysis
energy output potentials. Duvuna et al. (2014) [5] carried out a was used to analysed the Data Obtained in this study.
statistical analysis of wind Energy potential Based on weibull
and Rayleigh models in North-East Nigeria using sixteen (16) 2.4.1 Weibull distribution function
years mean monthly wind speed data covering the period of Wind speeds have usually wide ranges and cannot be
1997-2012. The result show that Rayleigh is the best fit model considered sufficient for obtaining a clear view of the
that describes the wind speed data at 10m height and weibull available wind potential. In order to minimize the required
model was found to present the actual probability of the wind time and expenses for processing long-term, usually hourly,
speed data. Pilot study was carried out on wind data analysis wind speed data, it is preferred to describe the wind speed
for Benin City by Azi et al. (2013) [3]. The work established variations using statistical functions. The 2-parameter Weibull
actual wind data at 10 metres height in Benin City. A study function can be used for this purpose as one can adjust the
was also carried out on analysis of wind energy potential for parameters to suit for a period of time, usually 1 month or 1
power generation in Benin Based on Regression Time series year. This can be used widely both in wind speed and wind
by Ogbeide et al. (2018) [10]. The work Predicted an average energy analysis.
wind speed of 3m/s in Benin. The essence of this study is to The wind speed probability distribution function indicates the
assess the wind energy potential of Edo state for electricity fraction of time for which a wind speed possibly prevails at
generation by using the wind data recorded at Benin airport the area under investigation. The wind speed probability
meteorological station using statistical analysis: the weibull density function can be calculated by the following equation.
distribution. The result of this analysis could render relevant
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
The analysis of wind regime using the Weibull distribution, 2.4.4 Wind power density
the Weibull parameters: shape (k) and scale (c) must be The power of the wind that flows at a speed (v) through a
calculated.The parameter K is a dimensionless shape blade sweep area (A) can be expressed by the following
parameter that shows the peakedness of the distribution of the equations:
wind speed at the measuring location, and for varying values
of K the distribution of the wind speed takes the shape of
other distributions. For K= 1, the distribution is Exponential,
for K = 2 it is Rayleigh, and for K = 3.4, the distribution
becomes approximately Normal. The parameter C is the scale Besides, calculation of wind power density based on the wind
parameter measured also in m/s and it shows how windy the speed provided by field measurements can be developed by
location of the measuring site is. Weibull distribution analysis using the following equation:
Some of the methods used for determining k and c are
Weibull probability plotting method, Moment method, Energy
pattern factor method, Standard deviation method, Maximum
likelihood method etc. Though all the above mentioned
methods are widely used, in this study standard deviation
method has been used. For calculating the mean wind speed Where, ρ is the standard air density at sea level with mean
(v), the following equation can be used: temperature of 15°C and 1 atmospheric pressure that is 1.225
kg/m3 which, depends on altitude, air pressure and
temperature. It is also seen from the above equation that wind
power density increases with the cube of the wind speed.
By calculating the mean wind speed (v) and the variance σ of 3. Results
the known wind speed data, the following approximation can The daily mean wind speed collected from the Nigeria
be used to calculate the Weibull parameters c and k: Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Benin City Edo state is
Presented. It also contains the data result, analysis and
discussion. As stated earlier, statistical methods are adopted in
the computation, description and analysis of wind speeds for a
period of two-year (2015-2016). In order to estimate the wind
energy potential in Benin, two parameter Weibull distribution
analysis is the statistical methods employed to achieve the aim
of study.
The wind speed data, collected from NIMET, are displayed in
2.4.2 Most Probable Wind Speed Table 1 and Table 2. The unit of speed used, is meters per
The most probable wind speed denotes the most frequent wind second.
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
5 3.171 1.436 2.257 2.389 3.364 2.816 2.214 3.866 2.868 2.658 1.815 3.090
6 2.744 3.435 2.563 1.880 2.713 3.037 1.746 3.882 1.362 2.041 1.652 2.861
7 3.427 4.610 3.379 2.037 3.046 1.210 3.354 3.876 3.037 2.022 1.963 4.225
8 4.305 3.631 3.269 2.394 3.124 2.868 2.789 2.870 2.816 2.191 2.243 2.536
9 4.568 2.148 2.789 3.148 2.583 1.515 3.269 2.879 2.884 2.786 2.342 2.478
10 4.467 3.515 3.354 1.917 3.032 2.778 3.379 5.135 1.948 2.159 1.738 2.157
11 5.134 2.840 1.746 2.195 3.269 2.969 2.564 3.900 3.065 2.167 1.793 3.084
12 5.956 2.646 2.214 1.628 2.175 2.153 2.257 2.884 2.621 1.723 1.706 2.285
13 3.626 2.369 2.508 1.209 2.515 1.704 2.373 2.845 2.243 2.749 2.428 1.793
14 2.472 2.721 2.769 1.631 4.728 1.673 2.263 3.564 1.458 1.339 2.612 2.441
15 2.460 3.405 3.502 1.926 2.647 2.783 2.784 3.152 3.404 2.022 2.030 3.229
16 2.450 3.499 3.183 1.994 2.381 3.818 3.133 4.227 3.707 2.474 1.912 2.879
17 2.070 3.893 1.853 1.501 3.602 1.980 3.438 4.520 3.510 2.387 2.094 2.728
18 3.914 2.687 2.387 1.586 2.970 3.510 2.806 2.509 1.980 2.090 1.438 2.640
19 3.422 4.059 2.811 1.893 1.972 3.707 1.559 3.022 3.818 2.284 1.690 2.469
20 3.693 2.903 3.124 1.756 3.584 3.396 3.546 3.380 2.783 2.122 2.016 2.370
21 3.670 1.100 3.639 2.015 3.342 1.458 3.124 2.581 1.673 2.315 1.749 3.468
22 4.377 4.519 1.559 2.614 2.909 2.243 2.811 3.850 1.704 3.151 1.282 4.283
23 4.844 3.471 2.806 2.769 2.281 3.139 2.387 2.761 3.503 1.968 1.929 2.662
24 4.907 2.989 3.426 2.392 2.400 3.503 2.978 2.469 2.807 1.882 2.012 5.080
25 4.777 1.719 3.327 2.962 2.164 2.569 2.826 3.375 3.306 2.358 1.759 3.710
26 3.843 3.004 2.960 1.298 1.490 2.807 4.405 3.074 3.304 2.601 2.727 2.707
27 4.522 2.803 3.032 2.607 2.819 2.944 1.194 4.506 3.162 2.198 3.220 2.476
28 4.416 1.031 2.978 2.177 2.700 3.306 3.032 2.493 2.944 1.860 2.215 1.641
29 4.148 2.826 2.390 2.052 3.162 2.960 2.963 2.569 1.080 2.619 2.040
30 3.225 4.405 2.534 1.237 3.304 3.426 3.306 3.139 1.594 2.552 2.094
31 4.420 1.194 2.561 3.327 4.239 2.131 2.099
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
4. Two-Parameter weibull distribution analysis speed data based on equation (4), (5) and (3) respectively. The
The Weibull distribution parameters Shape (k), Scale (c) and computations were carried out with Microsoft Excel and thus,
standard deviation, were calculated using the measured wind the results are given in the Table 3
Table 3: Monthly values of Weibull parameters and standard deviation of wind speed (2015)
Qty Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
4.121 3.150 4.735 4.994 4.454 4.286 4.763 5.787 4.349 5.032 5.336 4.040
4.110 3.520 3.048 2.276 3.037 2.967 3.036 3.716 2.965 2.450 2.224 3.121
1.013 1.095 0.666 0.475 0.700 0.707 0.660 0.683 0.698 0.508 0.439 0.782
From the results obtained, the wind power density can be (4). Also, the monthly characteristic speeds, were
estimated using Weibull scale parameters, k and c using calculated using equation (7), (8) and the results are shown in
equation (8). The estimated power density are shown in table the table below.
Table 5: Monthly characteristic speeds and wind power density.
Month Parameter 2015 2016 Parameters 2015 2016
Jan 38.888 16.485 Jul 15.383 15.245
3.842 2.898 2.890 2.828
4.525 3.391 3.268 3.300
Feb 26.192 35.092 Aug 27.865 15.884
3.118 3.789 3.596 2.951
4.114 4.315 3.911 3.275
Mar 15.74 26.638 Sep 14.470 16.808
2.899 3.291 2.792 2.864
3.284 4.051 3.234 3.448
Apr 6.457 20.639 Oct 14.470 8.944
2.177 3.126 2.792 2.378
2.435 3.652 3.234 2.755
May 15.511 16.705 Nov 5.998 7.915
2.869 2.907 2.140 2.319
3.201 3.409 2.361 2.616
Jun 14.537 14.242 Dec 17.073 7.421
2.789 2.749 2.908 2.296
3.244 3.237 3.447 2.536
Fig 1: Weibull distribution curves showing monthly wind speed characteristics in 2015.
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
Fig 2: Weibull distribution curves showing monthly wind speed characteristics in 2016.
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International Journal of Advanced Engineering and Technology
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