Chap 2 Probabilities TUT Activities Homework Due: Tuesday 18 April

2-15 A silver dollar is flipped twice. Calculate the probability of each of the following occurring:

(a) a head on the first flip

(b) a tail on the second flip given that the first toss was a head
(c) two tails
(d) a tail on the first and a head on the second
(e) a tail on the first and a head on the second or a head on the first and a tail on the second
(f) at least one head on the two flips

2-16 An urn contains 8 red chips, 10 green chips, and 2 white chips. A chip is drawn and replaced,
and then a second chip drawn. What is the probability of

(a) a white chip on the first draw?

(b) a white chip on the first draw and a red on the second?
(c) two green chips being drawn?
(d) a red chip on the second given that a white chip was drawn on the first?

2-17 Evertight, a leading manufacturer of quality nails, produces 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-inch nails for
various uses. In the production process, if there is an overrun or the nails are slightly defective, they
are placed in a common bin. Yesterday, 651 of the 1-inch nails, 243 of the 2-inch nails, 41 of the 3-
inch nails, 451 of the 4-inch nails, and 333 of the 5-inch nails were placed in the bin.

(a) What is the probability of reaching into the bin and getting a 4-inch nail?

(b) What is the probability of getting a 5-inch nail?

(c) If a particular application requires a nail that is 3 inches or shorter, what is the probability of get-
ting a nail that will satisfy the requirements of the application?

2-18 Last year, at Northern Manufacturing Company, 200 people had colds during the year. One
hundred fifty- five people who did no exercising had colds, and the remainder of the people with
colds were involved in a weekly exercise program. Half of the 1,000 employees were involved in
some type of exercise.

(a) What is the probability that an employee will have a cold next year?

(b) Given that an employee is involved in an exercise program, what is the probability that he or she
will get a cold next year?

(c) What is the probability that an employee who is not involved in an exercise program will get a
cold next year?

(d) Are exercising and getting a cold independent events? Explain your answer.
 2-19 Dead Pan, a video game developer, has a 70% chance of developing a profitable video game.
The company’s management is considering a new game and assesses the probability of developing a
profitable game based on market research. In the past, 90% of their profitable games had been
correctly predicted to be profitable by market research. At the same time, 20% of their failed games
had also been predicted to be profitable by market research. What is the probability that a profitable
game will be predicted, and the game will actually fail?

2-20 David Mashley teaches two undergraduate statistics courses at Kansas College. The class for
Statistics 201 consists of 7 sophomores and 3 juniors. The more advanced course, Statistics 301, has
2 sophomores and 8 juniors enrolled. As an example of a business sampling technique, Professor
Mashley randomly selects, from the stack of Statistics 201 registration cards, the class card of one
student and then places that card back in the stack. If that student was a sophomore, Mashley draws
another card from the Statistics 201 stack; if not, he randomly draws a card from the Statistics 301
group. Are these two draws independent events? What is the probability of

(a) a junior’s name on the first draw?

(b) a junior’s name on the second draw given that a sophomore’s name was drawn first?
(c) a junior’s name on the second draw given that a junior’s name was drawn first?
(d) a sophomore’s name on both draws?
(e) a junior’s name on both draws?
(f) one sophomore’s name and one junior’s name on the two draws, regardless of order drawn?

Bayes Theorem Use Numerical Method

2-47 Market Researchers, Inc., has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a
new product will be good or poor. In similar studies performed in the past, whenever the market
actually was good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 85% of the time. On
the other hand, whenever the market actually was poor, the market study incorrectly predicted it
would be good 20% of the time. Before the study is performed, it is believed there is a 70% chance
the market will be good. When Market Researchers, Inc., performs the study for this product, the
results predict the market will be good. Given the results of this study, what is the probability that
the market actually will be good?

2-48 Policy Pollsters is a market research firm specializing in political polls. Records indicate in past
elections, when a candidate was elected, Policy Pollsters had accurately predicted this 80% of the
time and was wrong 20% of the time. Records also show, for losing candidates, Policy Pollsters
accurately predicted they would lose 90% of the time and was wrong only 10% of the time. Before
the poll is taken, there is a 50% chance of winning the election. If Policy Pollsters predicts a candidate
will win the election, what is the probability that the candidate will actually win? If Policy Pollsters
predicts that a candidate will lose the election, what is the probability that the candidate will actually
lose?
2-49 Burger City is a large chain of fast-food restaurants specializing in gourmet hamburgers. A
mathematical model is now used to predict the success of new restaurants based on location and
demographic information for that area. In the past, 70% of all restaurants that were opened were
successful. The mathematical model has been tested in the existing restaurants to determine how
effective it is. For the restaurants that were successful, 90% of the time the model predicted they
would be, while 10% of the time the model predicted a failure. For the restaurants that were not
successful, when the mathematical model was applied, 20% of the time it incorrectly predicted a
successful restaurant, while 80% of the time it was accurate and predicted an unsuccessful
restaurant. If the model is used on a new location and predicts the restaurant will be successful,
what is the probability that it actually is successful?

2-50 A mortgage lender attempted to increase its business by marketing its subprime mortgage. This
mortgage is designed for people with a less-than-perfect credit rating, and the interest rate is higher
to offset the extra risk. In the past year, 20% of these mortgages resulted in foreclosure as customers
defaulted on their loans. A new screening system has been developed to determine whether to
approve customers for the subprime loans. When the system is applied to a credit application, the
system will classify the application as “Approve for loan” or “Reject for loan.” When this new system
was applied to recent customers who had defaulted on their loans, 90% of these customers were
classified as “Reject.” When this same system was applied to recent loan customers who had not
defaulted on their loan payments, 70% of these customers were classified as “Approve for loan.”

(a) If a customer did not default on a loan, what is the probability that the rating system would have
classified the applicant in the reject category?

(b) If the rating system had classified the applicant in the reject category, what is the probability that
the customer would not default on a loan?