"Global warming" redirects here.

For other uses, see Climate change (disambiguation) and Global

warming (disambiguation). This article is about contemporary climate change. For historical climate
trends, see Climate variability and change.

Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to 2021 compared to the 1956–1976 average

Change in average surface air temperature since the Industrial Revolution, plus drivers for that change. Human
activity has caused increased temperatures, with natural forces adding some variability. [1]

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global

average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader
sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global
average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by
humans burning fossil fuels.[2][3] Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and
some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon
dioxide and methane.[4] Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it
warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere,
causing global warming.
Due to climate change, deserts are expanding, while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more
common.[5] Increased warming in the Arctic has contributed to melting permafrost, glacial retreat and
sea ice loss.[6] Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms, droughts, and
other weather extremes.[7] Rapid environmental change in mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic is
forcing many species to relocate or become extinct.[8] Even if efforts to minimise future warming are
successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating, ocean
acidification and sea level rise.[9]
Climate change threatens people with increased flooding, extreme heat,
increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss. Human migration and conflict
can also be a result.[10] The World Health Organization (WHO) calls climate change the greatest
threat to global health in the 21st century.[11] Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe
risks in the future without action to limit warming.[12] Adapting to climate change through efforts
like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops reduces climate change risks, although this
may not be possible with increasing warming.[13] Poorer countries are responsible for a small share of
global emissions, yet they have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change.
Many climate change impacts are already felt at the current 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) level of warming.
Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points, such as the melting of
the Greenland ice sheet.[14] Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations collectively agreed to keep
warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming
would still reach about 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) by the end of the century.[15] Limiting warming to 1.5 °C will
require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. [16]

Some effects of climate change, clockwise from top left: Wildfire intensified by heat and drought,
worsening droughts compromising water supplies, and bleaching of coral caused by marine heatwaves.

Reducing emissions requires generating electricity from low-carbon sources rather than burning
fossil fuels. This change includes phasing out coal and natural gas fired power plants, vastly
increasing use of wind, solar, and other types of renewable energy, and reducing energy
use. Electricity generated from non-carbon-emitting sources will need to replace fossil fuels for
powering transportation, heating buildings, and operating industrial facilities. [18][19] Carbon can also
be removed from the atmosphere, for instance by increasing forest cover and by farming with
methods that capture carbon in soil.[20]

Terminology
Before the 1980s, when it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse
gases were stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution, scientists used
the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate. [21]
In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common. Though the two
terms are sometimes used interchangeably, [22] scientifically, global warming refers only to increased
surface warming, while climate change describes the totality of changes to Earth's climate system.
[21]
 Global warming—used as early as 1975[23]—became the more popular term after NASA climate
scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate.[24] Since the 2000s, climate
change has increased in usage.[25] Climate change can also refer more broadly to both human-
caused changes or natural changes throughout Earth's history.[26]
Various scientists, politicians and media now use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to
talk about climate change, and global heating instead of global warming.[27]

Observed temperature rise

Main articles: Temperature record of the last 2,000 years and Instrumental temperature record

Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals,
and ice cores in blue.[28] Directly observed data is in red.[29]

Multiple independent instrumental datasets show that the climate system is warming.[30] The 2011–
2020 decade warmed to an average 1.09 °C [0.95–1.20 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline
(1850–1900).[31] Surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade,[32] with 2020 reaching a
temperature of 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era.[33] Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights
has decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased. [34]
There was little net warming between the 18th century and the mid-19th century. Climate information
for that period comes from climate proxies, such as trees and ice cores.[35] Thermometer records
began to provide global coverage around 1850. [36] Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like
the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at the same time across different
regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of
regions.[37] There have been prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the Paleocene–
Eocene Thermal Maximum.[38] However, the modern observed rise in temperature and
CO2 concentrations has been so rapid that even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not
approach current rates.[39][40]
Evidence of warming from air temperature measurements are reinforced with a wide range of other
observations.[41][42] For example, changes to the natural water cycle have been predicted and
observed, such as an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow
and land ice, and increased atmospheric humidity.[43] Flora and fauna are also behaving in a manner
consistent with warming; for instance, plants are flowering earlier in spring.[44] Another key indicator is
the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which demonstrates that greenhouse gases are trapping heat
near the Earth's surface and preventing it from radiating into space. [45]
Regions of the world warm at differing rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases
are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-
industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as
fast as the global-average surface temperature.[46] This is because of the larger heat capacity of
oceans, and because oceans lose more heat by evaporation.[47] The thermal energy in the global
climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra
energy has been stored in the ocean.[48][49] The rest has heated the atmosphere, melted ice, and
warmed the continents.[50]
The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South
Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also
more seasonal snow cover and sea ice. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being
dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat.[51] Local black carbon deposits on snow
and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. [52] Arctic temperatures are increasing at over twice the rate
of the rest of the world.[53] Melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation,
including a weakened Gulf Stream, further changing the climate.[54]

Attribution of recent temperature rise

Main article: Attribution of recent climate change

Drivers of climate change from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019. There was no significant contribution from internal
variability or solar and volcanic drivers.

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years (such as the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)), decades or even centuries.[55] Other changes are caused by
an imbalance of energy that is "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.
[56]
 Examples of external forcings include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar
luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.[57]
To determine the human contribution to climate change, known internal climate variability and
natural external forcings need to be ruled out. A key approach is to determine unique "fingerprints"
for all potential causes, then compare these fingerprints with observed patterns of climate change.
[58]
 For example, solar forcing can be ruled out as a major cause. Its fingerprint would be warming in
the entire atmosphere. Yet, only the lower atmosphere has warmed, consistent with greenhouse gas
forcing.[59] Attribution of recent climate change shows that the main driver is elevated greenhouse
gases, with aerosols having a dampening effect.[60]

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse gas emissions, Greenhouse effect, and Carbon
dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores [61][62][63][64] (blue/green) and
directly[65] (black)

Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to
heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it.
This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's
surface and warming it over time.[66] Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of
greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have
been in their absence.[67][68] While water vapour (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest
contributors to the greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are
therefore feedbacks. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO2 (~20%), tropospheric
ozone,[69] CFCs and nitrous oxide are not temperature-dependent, and are therefore external
forcings.[70]
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil,
and natural gas),[71] has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in
a radiative imbalance. In 2019, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 48%
and 160%, respectively, since 1750. [72] These CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time
during the last 2 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last
800,000 years.[73]
The Global Carbon Project shows how additions to CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different sources
ramping up one after another.

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of

CO2. Of these emissions, 75% was CO2, 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2%
was fluorinated gases.[74] CO2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy
for transport, manufacturing, heating, and electricity.[4] Additional CO2 emissions come
from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the CO2 released by the chemical
reactions for making cement, steel, aluminum, and fertiliser.[75] Methane emissions come from
livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas
extraction.[76] Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertiliser.[77]
Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land surface,
particularly its forests, remain a significant carbon sink for CO2. Land-surface sink processes, such
as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global
CO2 emissions.[78] The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First,
CO2 dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's overturning circulation distributes it deep
into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the carbon cycle. Over the last
two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO 2.[79]

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale.[80] Aerosols scatter and
absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching
the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming,[81] and is
attributed to aerosols produced by dust, pollution and combustion of biofuels and fossil fuels. [82][83][84][85]
[86]
 Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no
longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.[87]
Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud
condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds
reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. [88] They also reduce
the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. [89] Indirect effects
of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing. [90]
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on
snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight,
it also increases melting and sea-level rise.[91] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could
reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[92]

Land surface changes

The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an
area the size of Italy.[93]

Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more agricultural land. Today, agriculture takes
up 34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable (glaciers, deserts, etc.).
[94]
 The amount of forested land continues to decrease, which is the main land use change that
causes global warming.[95] Deforestation releases CO2 contained in trees when they are destroyed,
plus it prevents those trees from absorbing more CO2 in the future.[20] The main causes of
deforestation are: permanent land-use change from forest to agricultural land producing products
such as beef and palm oil (27%), logging to produce forestry/forest products (26%), short
term shifting cultivation (24%), and wildfires (23%).[96]
The type of vegetation in a region affects the local temperature. It impacts how much of the sunlight
gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the
change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight.
Deforestation can also affect temperatures by modifying the release of chemical compounds that
influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. [97] In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to
produce significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is
replaced by snow cover) leads to a cooling effect. [97] Globally, these effects are estimated to have led
to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo. [98] According to FAO, forest
degradation aggravates the impacts of climate change as it reduces the carbon sequestration
abilities of forests. Indeed, among their many benefits, forests also have the potential to reduce the
impact of high temperatures.[99]

Solar and volcanic activity

Further information: Solar activity and climate
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the
climate system.[90] Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites,[100] and indirect
measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. [90] There has been no upward trend in
the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth. [101]
Explosive volcanic eruptions represent the largest natural forcing over the industrial era. When the
eruption is sufficiently strong (with sulfur dioxide reaching the stratosphere), sunlight can be partially
blocked for a couple of years. The temperature signal lasts about twice as long. In the industrial era,
volcanic activity has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends. [102] Present-day volcanic
CO2 emissions are equivalent to less than 1% of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[103]
Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades
when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity. [104] Further evidence for
greenhouse gases causing global warming comes from measurements that show a warming of the
lower atmosphere (the troposphere), coupled with a cooling of the upper atmosphere
(the stratosphere).[105] If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, the troposphere
and stratosphere would both warm.[59]

Climate change feedback

Main articles: Climate change feedback and Climate sensitivity

Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area
of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt
still more ice. This process is a positive feedback.[106]

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by "self-
reinforcing" or "positive" feedbacks and reduced by "balancing" or "negative" feedbacks.[107] The main
reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of
clouds.[108][109] The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off
more heat to space in response to rising temperature.[110] In addition to temperature feedbacks, there
are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO 2 on plant growth.[111] Uncertainty
over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of
warming for a given amount of emissions.[112]
As air warms, it can hold more moisture. Water vapour, as a potent greenhouse gas, holds heat in
the atmosphere.[108] If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling
the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below
back downwards and warming the planet. [113] The effect of clouds is the largest source of feedback
uncertainty.[114]
Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the
reflectivity of the Earth's surface.[115] More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions,
contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature changes.[116] Arctic amplification is also
melting permafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.[117] Climate change can
also cause methane releases from wetlands, marine systems, and freshwater systems.[118] Overall,
climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive. [119]
Around half of human-caused CO2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.
[120]
 On land, elevated CO2 and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth. Climate
change increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain
whether this carbon sink will continue to grow in the future. [121] Soils contain large quantities of carbon
and may release some when they heat up.[122] As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it
acidifies, its circulation changes and phytoplankton takes up less carbon, decreasing the rate at
which the ocean absorbs atmospheric carbon. [123] Overall, at higher CO2 concentrations the Earth will
absorb a reduced fraction of our emissions.[124]

Modelling
Further information: Carbon budget, Climate model, and Climate change scenario
Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean
changes

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect
the climate system.[125] Models also include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit,
historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. [126] Models are used to estimate the
degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate
feedbacks,[127][128] or reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the
seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. [129]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past
climates.[130] Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage[131] and underestimated the
rate of precipitation increase.[132] Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but
more recent models agree well with observations.[133] The 2017 United States-published National
Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant
feedback processes".[134]
A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models
simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical
climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas
emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict
how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. [135][136] Depending
on the socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric
CO2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm. [137]
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects that global warming is very likely to reach 1.0 °C to
1.8 °C by the late 21st century under the very low GHG emissions scenario. In an intermediate
scenario global warming would reach 2.1 °C to 3.5 °C, and 3.3 °C to 5.7 °C under the very high GHG
emissions scenario.[138] These projections are based on climate models in combination with
observations.[139]
The remaining carbon budget is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the climate sensitivity
to greenhouse gases.[140] According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a
two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of CO 2. This
corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget.
For instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of CO2 smaller due to methane release from permafrost
and wetlands.[141] However, it is clear that fossil fuel resources are too abundant for shortages to be
relied on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. [142]

Impacts
Main article: Effects of climate change

The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects changes in average soil moisture that can disrupt agriculture and
ecosystems. A reduction in soil moisture by one standard deviation means that average soil moisture will
approximately match the ninth driest year between 1850 and 1900 at that location.

Environmental effects
Further information: Effects of climate change on oceans and Effects of climate change on the
water cycle
The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and
weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying
climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. [143] Since the
1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.
[144]
 Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia.
[145]
 The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing,[146] and the
geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. [147] Frequency of tropical
cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change. [148]
Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program[149]

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of glacial melt, melt of the ice

sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, and thermal expansion. Between 1993 and 2020, the rise
increased over time, averaging 3.3 ± 0.3 mm per year.[150] Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects
that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.[151] Increased ocean
warmth is undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, risking a large melt of the
ice sheet[152] and the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions. [153]
Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice.[154] While ice-free
summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every
three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C.[155] Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to
changes in ocean chemistry. An increase in dissolved CO2 is causing oceans to acidify.[156] In
addition, oxygen levels are decreasing as oxygen is less soluble in warmer water.[157] Dead zones in
the ocean, regions with very little oxygen, are expanding too. [158]

Tipping points and long-term impacts

Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ‘tipping points’—thresholds
beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are reduced. [159][160] An
example is the collapse of West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, where a temperature rise of 1.5
to 2 °C may commit the ice sheets to melt, although the time scale of melt is uncertain and depends
on future warming.[161][162] Some large-scale changes could occur over a short time period, such as a
shutdown of certain ocean currents like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
[163]
 Tipping points can also include irreversible damage to ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and
coral reefs.[164]
The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea
level rise, and ocean acidification.[165] On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of
climate change will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. This is due to CO2's
long atmospheric lifetime.[166] Oceanic CO2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will
continue for hundreds to thousands of years.[167] These emissions are estimated to have prolonged
the current interglacial period by at least 100,000 years.[168] Sea level rise will continue over many
centuries, with an estimated rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years.[169]

Nature and wildlife

Further information: Effects of climate change on oceans and Climate change and ecosystems
Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards
higher altitudes.[170] Higher atmospheric CO2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in
global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some
regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear. [171] Climate change has contributed
to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[172] The
size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely.[173] Overall, it
is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species.[174]
The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have
migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. [175] Just as on land, heat waves in the
ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as
corals, kelp, and seabirds.[176] Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying
organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons; and heatwaves
have bleached coral reefs.[177] Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change
and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life.
  Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared
[178]

due to climate change and other human impacts.[179]