Introduction to Inferential Statistics

JOMEL R. ALANZALON
BIOL 2400 – Statistical Biology
2nd Semester, 2022-2023

CENTRAL LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY

 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS
Learning Outcomes
After completing this chapter, the students must be able to
• Understand the concept of statistical inference.
• Discuss the two areas of inferential statistics.
• Perform point and interval estimation.
• Discuss the concept of hypothesis testing.
• Define what a statistical hypothesis is.

Introduction to Inferential Statistics | 2

 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS Statistical Inference and its Areas
Statistical inference is the process of using sample results to draw
conclusion about the characteristics of the population.

- to obtain a guess or an estimate

Estimation of of the unknown value along with
Parameter the determination of its accuracy
Statistical
Inference
- to examine whether the sample
Hypothesis
data support or contradict the
Testing
investigators conjecture about the
true value of the parameter.
Introduction to Inferential Statistics | 3
 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1 Estimation
Important Terms
Estimator
• formula or process for using sample data to estimate a population
parameter
Estimate
• specific value or range of values used to approximate a population
parameter
• Point Estimate – single value
• Interval Estimate – range of values
Standard Error
• standard deviation of an estimator
Introduction to Inferential Statistics | 4
 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1 Estimation
Types of Estimation
1. Point Estimation
• we are computing a single value from a sample data to
estimate the population parameter.

2. Interval Estimation
• we are producing interval or range of values that is likely to
contain the true value of the parameter.

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1 Estimation
Properties of a Good Estimator
1. The estimator should be an unbiased estimator. That is, the expected
value or the mean of the estimates obtained from samples of a given size
is equal to the parameter being estimated.
2. The estimator should be consistent. For a consistent estimator, as
sample size increases, the value of the estimator approaches the value of
the parameter estimated.
3. The estimator should be a relatively efficient estimator. That is, of all the
statistics that can be used to estimate a parameter, the relatively efficient
estimator has the smallest variance.

Introduction to Inferential Statistics | 6

 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.1 Point Estimation
- we are computing a single value from a sample data to estimate
the population parameter.

Point Estimator
• the rule or formula that describes the calculation of a single
value estimate

Point Estimate
• the calculated single value used to estimate

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.1 Point Estimation
Examples of Point Estimator and Point Estimates
Statistic Parameter
Sample Mean (𝑥)ҧ Population Mean (𝜇)
Sample Variance (𝑠 2 ) Population Variance (𝜎 2 )
Sample Standard Deviation (𝑠) Population Standard Deviation (𝜎)
Point Estimators
Sample Proportion (𝑝)Ƹ Population Proportion (𝑝)

ഥ = 𝟐𝟓. 𝟖
𝑿
Estimator Estimate

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.1 Point Estimation
Examples of Point Estimator and Point Estimates
• The point estimator for the population mean 𝜇 is the sample mean 𝑿 ഥ
∑𝑋𝑖 computed value will be the point
𝑋ത = estimator of population mean
𝑛
• The point estimator for the population variance 𝜎 2 is the sample variance 𝒔𝟐
∑ 𝑋 𝑖 − ത
𝑋 2
computed value will be the point
2
𝑠 = estimator of population variance
𝑛−1
• The point estimator for the population proportion 𝑝 is the sample
ෝ
proportion 𝒑
𝑥 computed value will be the point
𝑝Ƹ = estimator of population proportion
𝑛

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
- two values are calculated to form an interval or range within
which the parameter is expected to lie/fall

Interval Estimator
• the rule or formula that describes the calculation of interval
of values

Interval Estimate
• the calculated interval or range of values used to estimate
• also known as confidence interval (CI)

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Important Concepts in Interval Estimation
Confidence Interval (CI)
• range/interval of values used to estimate the true value of a
population parameter
• It gives us a much better sense of how good an estimate is

Confidence Level (𝟏 − 𝜶)
• probability or percentage that the confidence interval actually does
contain the population parameter
• also known as degree of confidence or confidence coefficient
• 𝛼 is the significance level
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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Commonly used confidence level and its level of significance
Confidence Level Significance Level
𝟏−𝜶 𝜶
90% 10%
95% 5%
99% 1%

95% is commonly used because it provides a good balance and precision and
if the confidence level is not given, the default value we use is 95%.

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Important Concepts in Interval Estimation
Critical Value
• number on the borderline separating sample statistics that are likely
to occur from those that are unlikely to occur
• In interval estimation the critical value can be find using
- Z-distribution (positive 𝑍𝛼 ) if 𝝈 is known
2

- Student t-distribution (𝑡𝛼, 𝑛−1 ) if 𝝈 is unknown

2

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Most Common Critical Value in Z-distributions

Confidence Level Significance Level Critical Value
𝟏−𝜶 𝜶 𝒁𝜶
𝟐
90% 10% 𝑧0.05 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓
95% 5% 𝑍0.025 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
98% 2% 𝑍0.01 = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟐𝟔
99% 1% 𝑍0.005 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓

used when 𝝈 is known or given

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

𝜶
Standard t-distribution
- t-table
- used when 𝝈 is unknown
or not given

Example:
𝒅𝒇
𝒕𝟎.𝟎𝟓, 𝟏𝟖 = 𝟏.
𝟏. 𝟕𝟑𝟒
𝟕𝟑𝟒

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Important Concepts in Interval Estimation
Margin of Error (E)
• maximum error of the estimate; maximum likely difference between the
point estimate of a parameter and the actual value of the parameter
• computed as the product of critical value and standard error
Case Margin of Error (E)
I. when 𝜎 is known 𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒁𝜶 ⋅
𝟐 𝒏
II. when 𝜎 is unknown 𝒔
𝑬 = 𝒕𝜶, 𝒏−𝟏 ⋅
𝟐 𝒏
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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Confidence Interval for the Population Mean 𝝁

ഥ+𝑬<𝝁<𝑿
𝑿 ഥ+𝑬
lower limit of the interval upper limit of the interval

Requirements
a. The sample is a random sample.
b. The population is normally distributed or the sample size is large
(𝑛 > 30).

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Confidence Interval for the Population Mean 𝝁
Steps in Constructing CI for the Population Mean 𝝁
1. Verify if the requirements are met.
2. Evaluate the margin of error (𝐸).
a. When 𝜎 is known
𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒁𝜶 ⋅
𝟐 𝒏
b. When 𝜎 is unknown
𝒔
𝑬 = 𝒕𝜶, 𝒏−𝟏 ⋅
𝟐 𝒏
ഥ−𝑬<𝝁<𝑿
3. Solve for the limits: 𝑿 ഥ+𝑬
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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS 4.1.2 Interval Estimation
Confidence Interval for the Population Mean 𝝁
4. Round-off the confidence interval limits.
• When the given is the original set of data, round the limits to one
more decimal place than used in data.
• When the given is only the summary statistics (mean and standard
deviation), round the limits to the same number of decimal places
used for the sample mean.
5. Interpret the confidence interval.
“We are (𝟏 − 𝜶)% confident that the interval from 𝑿 ഥ − 𝑬 to 𝑿 ഥ + 𝑬 actually
does contain the true value of the statistic.”
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Example 1.
A random sample of 100 fish caught at Taal Lake has a mean
length of 35.5 cm. Assuming that it is known that the lengths of
the population of fish in Taal Lake follows a normal distribution
with a population standard deviation of 5 cm, construct a 95%
confidence interval for the mean length of all fish in Taal Lake.

Solution:
Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎=5
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 → 𝛼 = 0.05
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎 = 5, 𝛼 = 0.05

Since 𝜎 is given in the problem, we

will use Case 1 to calculate the 𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼 ⋅
margin of error. 2 𝑛
5
The critical value is = 𝑍0.05 ⋅
Confidence Significance Critical Value 2 100
Level Level 𝒁𝜶 5
𝟏−𝜶 𝜶 𝟐 = 𝑍0.025 ⋅
90% 10% 𝑧0.05 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓
100
5
95% 5% 𝑍0.025 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔 = 1.96 ⋅
98% 2% 𝑍0.01 = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟐𝟔 100
99% 1% 𝑍0.005 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓 𝐸 = 0.98
2
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎=5 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝐸 = 0.98

Solve for limits.

𝑋ത − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑋ത + 𝐸
35.5 − 0.98 < 𝜇 < 35.5 + 0.98
34.52 < 𝜇 < 36.48
𝟑𝟒. 𝟓 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟔. 𝟓

We are 95% confident that the interval from 34.5 cm to 36.5 cm actually
does contain the true value of the mean length of all fish in Taal lake.

2
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Example 2.
A random sample of 100 fish caught at Taal Lake has a mean
length of 35.5 cm. Assuming that it is known that the lengths of
the population of fish in Taal Lake follows a normal distribution
with a population standard deviation of 5 cm, construct a 99%
confidence interval for the mean length of all fish in Taal Lake.

Solution:
Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎=5
1 − 𝛼 = 0.99 → 𝛼 = 0.01
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎 = 5, 𝛼 = 0.01

Since 𝜎 is given in the problem, we

will use Case 1 to calculate the 𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼 ⋅
margin of error. 2 𝑛
5
The critical value is = 𝑍0.01 ⋅
Confidence Significance Critical Value 2 100
Level Level 𝒁𝜶 5
𝟏−𝜶 𝜶 𝟐 = 𝑍0.005 ⋅
90% 10% 𝑧0.05 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓
100
5
95% 5% 𝑍0.025 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔 = 2.575 ⋅
98% 2% 𝑍0.01 = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟐𝟔 100
99% 1% 𝑍0.005 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓 𝐸 = 1.2875
2
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 100, 𝑋ത = 35.5, 𝜎=5 𝛼 = 0.01, 𝐸 = 1.2875

Solve for limits.

𝑋ത − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑋ത + 𝐸
35.5 − 1.2875 < 𝜇 < 35.5 + 1.2875
34.2125 < 𝜇 < 36.7875
𝟑𝟒. 𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟔. 𝟖
We are 99% confident that the interval from 34.2 cm to 36.8 cm actually
does contain the true value of the mean length of all fish in Taal lake.

Note: As the confidence level increases, the confidence interval goes wider.
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Example 3.
A study found that the body temperatures of healthy adults are
normally distributed. A random sample of 15 adults have a
sample mean of 98.20 degrees Fahrenheit and the sample
standard deviation was 0.62 degrees Fahrenheit. At 95% level of
confidence, construct a CI for the population mean of all body
temperatures of healthy adults.

Solution:
Given: 𝑛 = 15, 𝑋ത = 98.20, 𝑠 = 0.62
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 → 𝛼 = 0.05
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 15, 𝑋ത = 98.20, 𝑠 = 0.62, 𝛼 = 0.05

𝑠
Since 𝜎 is unknown, we will use Case 𝐸 = 𝑡𝛼 , 𝑛−1 ⋅
2 𝑛
2 to calculate the margin of error. 0.62
= 𝑡0.05 ⋅
, 15−1 15
2
0.62
= 𝑡0.025, 14 ⋅
15

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Standard t-distribution
- t-table
- used when 𝝈 is unknown
or not given

Critical Value

𝒕𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟓, 𝟏𝟒 = 𝟐.
𝟏. 𝟏𝟒𝟓
𝟕𝟑𝟒

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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 15, 𝑋ത = 98.20, 𝑠 = 0.62, 𝛼 = 0.05

𝑠
Since 𝜎 is unknown, we will use Case 𝐸 = 𝑡𝛼 , 𝑛−1 ⋅
2 𝑛
2 to calculate the margin of error. 0.62
= 𝑡0.05 ⋅
, 15−1 15
2
0.62
= 𝑡0.025, 14 ⋅
15
0.62
= 2.145 ⋅
15
𝐸 = 0.3434
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑛 = 15, 𝑋ത = 98.20, 𝑠 = 0.62 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝐸 = 0.3434

Solve for limits.

𝑋ത − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑋ത + 𝐸
98.20 − 0.3434 < 𝜇 < 98.20 + 0.3434
97.8566 < 𝜇 < 98.5434
𝟗𝟕. 𝟖𝟔 < 𝝁 < 𝟗𝟖. 𝟓𝟒

We are 95% confident that the interval from 97.86⁰F to 98.54⁰F actually
does contain the true value of the mean body temperature of healthy
adults.
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Example 4.
The football coach randomly selected nine players and timed how long
each player took to perform a certain drill. Assume that the data are
normally distributed. Times (in minutes) were as follows:

33 9.7 8.4 11.8 7 6.5 11.1 10.4 12.4

a. Find the point estimate for the mean length of time it took a player to
perform the drill.
b. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean length of time it took
a player to perform the drill.

3
Introduction to Inferential Statistics |
1
 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Solution: a. Point Estimate

ഥ , thus
The point estimator of the population mean 𝜇 is the sample mean 𝑿

∑𝑋𝑖 33 + 9.7 + 8.4 + 11.8 + 7 + 6.5 + 11.1 + 10.4 + 12.4

𝑋ത = =
𝑛 9
ഥ = 𝟏𝟐. 𝟐𝟔 minutes
𝑿

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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Solution: b. 90% Confidence Interval

Given: 𝑛 = 9, 𝑋ത = 12.26, 1 − 𝛼 = 0.90 → 𝛼 = 0.10

𝑠
Since 𝜎 is unknown, we will use Case 𝐸 = 𝑡𝛼 , 𝑛−1 ⋅
2 𝑛
2 to calculate the margin of error. 8.04
= 𝑡0.10 ⋅
, 9−1 9
𝑠 is also not given, but we can 2
8.04
compute it from the data which is = 𝑡0.05, 8 ⋅
𝑠 = 8.04. 9

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 DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Standard t-distribution
- t-table
- used when 𝝈 is unknown
or not given

Critical Value

𝒕𝟎.𝟎𝟓, 𝟖 = 𝟏.𝟏.𝟕𝟑𝟒
𝟖𝟔𝟎

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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Solution: b. 90% Confidence Interval

Given: 𝑛 = 9, 𝑋ത = 12.26, 1 − 𝛼 = 0.90 → 𝛼 = 0.10

𝑠
Since 𝜎 is unknown, we will use Case 𝐸 = 𝑡𝛼 , 𝑛−1 ⋅
2 𝑛
2 to calculate the margin of error. 8.04
= 𝑡0.10 ⋅
, 9−1 9
𝑠 is also not given, but we can 2
8.04
compute it from the data which is = 𝑡0.05, 8 ⋅
𝑠 = 8.04. 9
8.04
= 1.860 ⋅
9
𝐸 = 4.9848
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 Interval Estimation for Pop’n Mean 𝝁
DEPARTMENT of
STATISTICS

Given: 𝑋ത = 12.26 𝐸 = 4.9848

Solve for limits.

𝑋ത − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑋ത + 𝐸
12.26 − 4.9848 < 𝜇 < 12.26 + 4.9848
7.2752 < 𝜇 < 17.2448
𝟕. 𝟐𝟖 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟕. 𝟐𝟒

We are 90% confident that the interval from 7.28 minutes to 17.24
minutes actually does contain the true value of the mean length of time
a certain drill can be performed.
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