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Project-Time Series Forecasting

The document analyzes time series data of wine sales for two types of wine, Sparkling and Rose, from the same company over the 20th century. Exploratory data analysis is performed, including plotting the raw data, decomposing it into seasonal and non-seasonal components, and splitting the data into training and test sets starting in 1991. Various exponential smoothing and other forecasting models like regression and naive models are built on the training data and evaluated on the test data using RMSE to select the best model for forecasting future wine sales.

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susmitadutta15
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116 views10 pages

Project-Time Series Forecasting

The document analyzes time series data of wine sales for two types of wine, Sparkling and Rose, from the same company over the 20th century. Exploratory data analysis is performed, including plotting the raw data, decomposing it into seasonal and non-seasonal components, and splitting the data into training and test sets starting in 1991. Various exponential smoothing and other forecasting models like regression and naive models are built on the training data and evaluated on the test data using RMSE to select the best model for forecasting future wine sales.

Uploaded by

susmitadutta15
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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[Type the company name]

Project - Time Series


Forecasting
[Type the document subtitle]

BY:
Susmita Dutta
Problem:
For this particular assignment, the data of different types of
wine sales in the 20th century is to be analysed. Both of
these data are from the same company but of different
wines. As an analyst in the ABC Estate Wines, you are
tasked to analyse and forecast Wine Sales in the 20th
century.

1. Read the data as an appropriate Time Series data and plot the data.

As per the data provided for Sparkling, there is no missing value in the dataset.

As per the data provided for Rose, there is two missing values in the dataset regarding Rose sales. The missing values
were replaced with median.

Sparkling Plot: Figure 1


Rose Plot: Figure 2

2. Perform appropriate Exploratory Data Analysis to understand the data and also
perform decomposition.

Exploratory Data Analysis has been performed on both Sparkling and Rose along with Decomposition.

We can see visually see that in Sparkling sales and Rose sale’s the residual is stable in Multiplicative seasonality, the
data is independent. After removing Seasonality from Sparkling, we can see that after 1985, there are fluctuation i.e.,
lots of highs and lows in the sales. After removing Seasonality from Rose, after 1982, the variation decreased drastically
in sales.
Sparkling Additive: – Figure3

Sparkling: Multiplicative – Figure 4


Rose: Additive-Figure 5

Rose: Multiplicative – Figure 6


Sparkling: Removing Seasonality: Figure 7

Rose: Removing Seasonality: Figure8


2. Split the data into training and test. The test data should start in 1991.

The data has been split into training Data and test data. AS per Test data for Rose sales , it was showing a decrease in
sales.

Sparkling Training Data: Figure 9 Rose Training Data: Figure 10

Rose Test Data: Figure 11


Sparkling Test Data: Figure 12
Sparkling : Figure13
Rose: Figure 14

4. Build all the exponential smoothing models on the training data and evaluate the model
using RMSE on the test data. Other models such as regression,naïve forecast models and
simple average models. should also be built on the training data and check the
performance on the test data using RMSE. :

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