Definition of Probability

As the Oxford dictionary states it, Probability means ‘The extent to which
something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the
case’. In mathematics too, probability indicates the same – the likelihood of the
occurrence of an event.
Examples of events can be :
 Tossing a coin with the head up
 Drawing a red pen from a pack of different coloured pens
 Drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards etc.
Either an event will occur for sure, or not occur at all. Or there are possibilities
to different degrees the event may occur.
An event that occurs for sure is called a Certain event and its probability is 1.
An event that doesn’t occur at all is called an impossible event and its probability
is 0.
This means that all other possibilities of an event occurrence lie between 0 and
1.
This is depicted as follows:
0 <= P(A) <= 1
where A is an event and P(A) is the probability of the occurrence of the event.
This also means that a probability value can never be negative.
Every event will have a set of possible outcomes. It is called the ‘sample space’.
Consider the example of tossing a coin.
When a coin is tossed, the possible outcomes are Head and Tail. So, the sample
space is represented as {H, T}.
Similarly when two coins are tossed, the sample space is {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}.
The probability of head each time you toss the coin is 1/2. So is the probability
of tail.

Basic formula of probability

As you might know from the list of GMAT maths formulas, the Probability of the
occurrence of an event A is defined as:
P(A) = (No. of ways A can occur)/(Total no. of possible outcomes)
 Another example is the rolling of dice. When a single die is rolled, the sample
space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
What is the probability of rolling a 5 when a die is rolled?
No. of ways it can occur = 1
Total no. of possible outcomes = 6
So the probability of rolling a particular number when a die is rolled = 1/6.

Simple & Compound Events

Dealing with ONE "event"
A simple (or single) event is an event with a single outcome.
Simple Probabilities (with only one outcome (desired result)):
• The probability of rolling a 3 on a die. (1/6)
• The probability of drawing the ace of hearts from a deck of cards. (1/52)
• The probability of tossing a head with a penny. (1/2)
• The probability of rolling an even number less than 5 on a die. (2/6 = 1/3)

Dealing with MORE THAN ONE "event"

A compound event is the combination of two or more simple events (with two
or more outcomes).
Compound Probabilities (with more than one outcome (desired result) within
a trial ):
• The probability of rolling an even number on a die.
(3/12 = 1/4)
 Mutually exclusive events:
Mutually exclusive events are those events that do not occur at the same time. For example,
when a coin is tossed then the result will be either head or tail, but we cannot get both the
results. Such events are also called disjoint events since they do not happen simultaneously. If
A and B are mutually exclusive events then its probability is given by P(A Or B) or P (A U B)
In probability theory, two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the
same time or simultaneously. In other words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint
events. If two events are considered disjoint events, then the probability of both events
occurring at the same time will be zero.
If A and B are the two events, then the probability of disjoint of event A and B is written by:
Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive Event = P ( A and B) = 0

How to Find Mutually Exclusive Events?

In probability, the specific addition rule is valid when two events are mutually exclusive. It
states that the probability of either event occurring is the sum of probabilities of each event
occurring. If A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events then the probability of an event
A occurring or the probability of event B occurring that is P (a ∪ b) formula is given by P(A)
+ P(B), i.e.,

 P (A Or B) = P(A) + P(B)
 P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

The probabilities of three teams A, B and C winning a badminton competition

are 1/3, 1/5 and 1/9 respectively.
Calculate the probability that
a) either A or B will win
b) either A or B or C will win
c) none of these teams will win
d) neither A nor B will win

Solution:

c) P(none will win) = 1 – P(A or B or C will win)

d) P(neither A nor B will win) = 1 – P(either A or B will win)

Solved Examples on Mutually Exclusive Events

Example 1: A pair of dice is rolled. Find the probability
(i) getting either even numbers or odd numbers.
Solution:
(i) Possible outcomes for even numbers: (2, 2), (4, 4), (6, 6)
⇒ P(even numbers) = 3/36 = 1/12
Possible outcomes for odd numbers: (1, 1), (3, 3), (5, 5)
⇒ P(Odd numbers) = 1/12
P (even or Odd) = 1/12 + 1/12 = 2/12 = 1/6

Example 2: A pair of dice is rolled. Find the probability.

(ii) the sum of the numbers rolled is either 6 or 10.
(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1) → (5 outcomes that have sum 6)
(6, 4), (5, 5), (4, 6) → (3 outcomes that have sum 10)
Now,
Probability of 6: P(6) = 5/36
Probability of 10: P(10) = 3/36
Both events are mutually exclusive since the sum of numbers cannot be 6 and 10 at the same
time.
P(6 or 10) = P(6) + P(10) = 5/36 + 3/36 = 8/36 = 2/9.
Example 3: The probabilities of three mutually exclusive events are 2/3, 1/4 and 1/6
respectively. Verify whether the statement is correct?
Solution:
Let the events be A, B, and C.
If the events are mutually exclusive then, A ⋂ B = 0, B ⋂ C = 0 and A ⋂ C = 0.
So, A ⋂ B ⋂ C = 0.
If the above conditions are satisfied, then P(A ⋃ B ⋃ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C).
Since P(A ⋃ B ⋃ C) = 13/12 > 1, the probability value lies within 1.
Therefore the statement is wrong.

Example 4: What is the probability of a dice showing 4 or 5?

Solution:

There are a total of 6 faces on a die, hence, the total number of outcomes will be 6

The probability of a die showing 4 is P(4) = 1/6

The probability of a die showing 5 isP(5) = 1/6

The probability of getting 4 or 5 is = P(4 or 5)

= P(4 or 5)

= P (4) + P(5)

= (1/6) + (1/6)

= 1 + 1/ 6

= 2/6

= 1/3

Answer: 1/3 will be the answer.

Example 5: Benny's teacher is teaching them about mutually exclusive events

and gave him a deck of 52 cards and asked him to select a red card or a 6. Find
the probability of selecting a red card or a 6
Solution:
The probability of getting a Red card = 26/52

The probability of getting a 6 = 4/52

The probability of getting both a Red and a 6 = 2/52

P(R or 6) = P(R) + P(6) - P(R and 6)

= (26/52) + (4/52) - (2/52)

= (30-2/52)

=28/52

=7/13

Answer: 7/13 will be the answer.

Example 6: What is the probability of getting a 2 or a 5 when a die is rolled?

Solution:
Taking the individual probabilities of each number, getting a 2 is 1/6 and so is
getting a 5.
Applying the formula of compound probability,
Probability of getting a 2 or a 5,
P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5) – P(2 and 5)
==> 1/6 + 1/6 – 0
==> 2/6 = 1/3.

Example 2: Consider the example of finding the probability of selecting a black

card or a 6 from a deck of 52 cards.
Solution:
We need to find out P(B or 6)
Probability of selecting a black card = 26/52
Probability of selecting a 6 = 4/52
Probability of selecting both a black card and a 6 = 2/52
P(B or 6) = P(B) + P(6) – P(B and 6)
= 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52
= 28/52
= 7/13.
Independent and Dependent Events
Independent Event
When multiple events occur, if the outcome of one event DOES NOT affect the
outcome of the other events, they are called independent events.

Method to Identify Independent Events

Before applying probability formulas, one needs to identify an independent
event. Few steps for checking whether the probability belongs to a dependent
or independent events:
Step 1: Check if it possible for the events to happen in any order? If yes, go to
Step 2, or else go to Step 3
Step 2: Check if one event affects the outcome of the other event? If yes, go
to step 4, or else go to Step 3
Step 3: The event is independent. Use the formula of independent events and
get the answer.
Step 4: The event is dependent. Use the formula of dependent event and get
the answer.
tricks for solving problems on independent events.
 The probability of independent events occurring in sequence can
be found by multiplying the results together.
 If the probability of one event does not affect the probability of
another event, the events are independent.
 If the probability of one event affects the probability of another
event, the events are dependent.

Say, a die is rolled twice. The outcome of the first roll doesn’t affect the second
outcome. These two are independent events.
Example 1: Say, a coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting two
consecutive tails ?
Probability of getting a tail in one toss = 1/2
The coin is tossed twice. So 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 is the answer.
Here’s the verification of the above answer with the help of sample space.
When a coin is tossed twice, the sample space is {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}.
Our desired event is (T,T) whose occurrence is only once out of four possible
outcomes and hence, our answer is 1/4.

Example 2: Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and
3 black pens. If a pen is drawn at random from the pack, replaced and the
process repeated 2 more times, What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens
and 1 black pen?
Solution
Here, total number of pens = 9
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/9
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 4/9 * 3/9 = 48/729
= 16/243

Dependent Events
When two events occur, if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of the
other, they are called dependent events.
Consider the example of drawing a pen from a pack, with a slight difference.
Example 1: A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are drawn
at random from the pack, NOT replaced and then another pen is drawn. What
is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
Solution:
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 3/8
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/7
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 1/14

Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen consecutively

from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.
Probability of drawing a king = 4/52 = 1/13
After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.
Probability of drawing a queen = 4/51.
Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is 1/13 * 4/51
= 4/663

Conditional probability
Conditional probability is calculating the probability of an event given that
another event has already occured .
The formula for conditional probability P(A|B), read as P(A given B) is
P(A|B) = P (A and B) / P(B)

Consider the following example:

Example: In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60% of the
students study math. What is the probability of a student studying science given
he/she is already studying math?
Solution
P(M and S) = 0.40
P(M) = 0.60
P(S|M) = P(M and S)/P(S) = 0.40/0.60 = 2/3 = 0.67

Complement of an event
A complement of an event A can be stated as that which does NOT contain the
occurrence of A.
A complement of an event is denoted as P(Ac) or P(A’).
P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
or it can be stated, P(A)+P(Ac) = 1
For example,
if A is the event of getting a head in coin toss, Ac is not getting a head i.e., getting
a tail.
if A is the event of getting an even number in a die roll, A c is the event of NOT
getting an even number i.e., getting an odd number.
if A is the event of randomly choosing a number in the range of -3 to 3, Ac is the
event of choosing every number that is NOT negative i.e., 0,1,2 & 3 (0 is neither
positive or negative).

Consider the following example:

Example: A single coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting at
least one head?
Solution:
Consider solving this using complement.
Probability of getting no head = P(all tails) = 1/32
P(at least one head) = 1 – P(all tails) = 1 – 1/32 = 31/32.