Probability

18.4 PROBABILITY CONCEPT

*** It is possible for either Brazil or Spain to win the world cup, when
they play the tournament.

*** It is also possible that it can rain tomorrow.

*** It is also likely that that the numbers 6, 23, 15 can be played in a
lottery of 1 to 90 numbers.

*** If a die is thrown or tossed once and we expect 4 to show.

*** In a tournament of 16 teams, we expect Liverpool to win.

In the five examples above we realize that we expect something to occur but
we are not sure about the outcome because the likelihood of occurring will
depend on others occurring or not occurring.

The term given to this kind of mathematics, in which we guess using

mathematical thinking is known as probability.

The term probability refers to the study of randomness and

uncertainty of a particular outcome.

Sample space
So far from what we have learnt we realize that, when we toss a coin we get
either 𝐻, 𝑇 , when we throw a die we can get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 , all these are
their possible outcomes, in probability the set of all possible outcomes is
known as the SAMPLE SPACE.

Event
we thrown a die and we expect 4, to show, or we toss a die and we expect 𝐻
to show, in probability we call these occurrences event.

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Probability

Event: is the set of all likely or expected outcomes.

Example 1
Find the sample space and event of the following.
(a) A coin is tossed and we want to get a head
(b) From the colours red, yellow, green, blue, brown, black.
Select blue and green.
(c) From a class of 40 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 select girls, if there are 30 girls and 10 boys.

Solution
(a) Sample space is all possible outcomes (occurrence)
Which is {𝐻, 𝑇}, event is likely outcome which is {𝐻}

(b) Sample space is {𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒, 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑛, 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘} and
the event is { 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒, }

(c) Sample space is 40 and the event is 30

Example 2
A box contains 4 red balls and 6 yellow balls. What is the possible outcome of any
ball drawn?

Solution
Any of them can be drawn out, hence its will be 4 redballs  6 yellowballs
Here sample space and event is equal

Example 3
(a) A coin is tossed what is the sample space
(b) Two coins are tossed, what is the sample space
(c) Three coins are tossed, what is the sample space
(d) A 𝑛 coins are tossed, what is the sample space
(e) Two dice are thrown, what is the sample space
(f) four dice are thrown, what is the sample space
(g) 𝑛 dice are thrown, what is the sample space

Solution

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(a) the sample space is {𝐻, 𝑇} or 21 = 2, where 2, is the possible outcome and
1, the number of coins tossed

(b) the sample space is { 𝐻1 𝐻2 , 𝐻1 𝑇2 , 𝑇1 𝐻2 , 𝑇1 𝑇2 } or 22 = 4, where 2, is the

possible outcome and 2, the number of coins tossed

(c) from the above examples we can predict this sample space to be
23 = 8 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇 = 8

(d) the sample space is 2𝑛 = 2, where 2, is the possible outcome and

𝑛, the number of coins tossed

(e) ⟹ 62 = 36, where 6, is the possible outcome and 2, the number of dice
thrown

(f) ⟹ 64 = 1,296 (g) ⟹ 6𝑛

Probability definition
𝑎
Probability is most of the time written in ratio form as 𝑏 , where 𝑎 represent event and
𝑏 represent the sample space.

Probability is defined as the ratio of the set of expected outcomes to

the set of all possible outcomes.

𝒏 𝑨
𝑷 𝑨 = Where 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 “𝐴” occurring,
𝒏 𝑺
𝑛 (𝐴 ) =the event that “A” occurs" , 𝑛(𝑆) =probability of all outcomes(sample space)

Example 18.42
What is the probability of obtaining a number 4 when a die is rolled once?

Solution
The event is probability of obtaining a number 4, which appears once,
hence event, is one.
𝑛 𝐸
From the formula 𝑃 𝐸 = 𝑛 𝑠 ,
Where 𝐸 = 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 4, 𝑤𝑕𝑖𝑐𝑕 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 , 𝑕𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝒏(𝑬) = 𝟏,
The difference is that 𝐸 = 4 represent the event, whiles 𝑛(𝐸) = 1,
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represent the number of event in this case 1

s  {1,2,3,4,5,6} 𝑛(𝑆) = 6, 𝑛(𝐸) = 1
𝑛 𝐸 1
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛 𝑠 6

Example 18.43
What is the probability of obtaining at least one head when a pair of coins is tossed?

Solution
where 𝑆 = {𝐻1 𝐻2 , 𝐻1 𝑇2 , 𝑇1 𝐻2 , 𝑇1 𝑇2 } and 𝐸 = {𝐻1 𝐻2 , 𝐻1 𝑇2 , 𝑇1 𝐻2 }
𝑛(𝑆) = 4, 𝑛(𝐸) = 3
𝑛 𝐸 3
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛 𝑠 4

Example 18.44
A box contains 3 black and 5 red balls of the same size. If a ball is drawn at
random what is the probability of obtaining a black ball

Solution
𝑛(𝑆) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 = 3 + 5 = 8 𝑛(𝐸) = 3, since black ball= 3

the event is black ball, but we are selecting 1 ball, the event 3 is just telling us
that any one of the 3 blackballs can be selected, so we represent the event by
3 not 1,

hence 𝑛 𝐸 = 3 and 𝑛(𝑆) = 8

𝑛 𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑡𝑕𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 3
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = = =
𝑛 𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑕𝑡 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 8

Example 18.45
In a race, three students competed for the green house, two from the red
house, four from the white house and one from the yellow house. Find the
probability that a student from the white house wins the race.

Solution
𝑛 𝑆 = 3 + 2 + 4 + 1 = 10 𝑛 𝐸 = 4,

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𝑛 𝐸 4 2
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = = =
𝑛 𝑠 10 5

Example 18.46
In a class of 48 students, 30 offer physics and the rest offer math. Find the Probability
that a student chosen at random offers math.

Solution
𝑀𝑎𝑡𝑕𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 48 − 30 = 18
𝑛(𝐸) = 18 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛(𝑆) = 48
𝑛 𝐸 18 9
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = = =
𝑛 𝑠 48 20

Example 18.47
A bag contains 7 red balls. What is the probability that if a ball is drawn its is
(a) red (b) yellow

Solution
(a) 𝑛(𝑅𝑒𝑑) = 7 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛(𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙) = 7
𝑛 𝐸 7
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = =7=1
𝑛 𝑠

(b) 𝑛(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛(𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙) = 7

𝑛 𝐸 0
⟹𝑃 𝐸 =𝑛 𝑠 =7=0

Example 18.48
The letters in the word committee are placed in a box. If a letter is drawn at random,
what is the probability that it is (a) 𝑀 (b) 𝐶

Solution
(a) 𝑛 𝑚 = 2
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 𝑐, 𝑜, 𝑚, 𝑚, 𝐼, 𝑡, 𝑡, 𝑒 , 𝑒 = 9
𝑛 𝐸 2
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛 𝑠 9

(b) 𝑛 𝑐 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 𝑐, 𝑜, 𝑚, 𝑚, 𝐼, 𝑡, 𝑡, 𝑒 , 𝑒 = 9

𝑛 𝐸 1
⟹𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑛 𝑠 9

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Probability

COMPLEMENTARY (OPPOSITE) EVENT

Let look the examples below

Example 18.49
A coin is tossed once what is the probability that
(a) a head shows (b) a head does not show.

Solution
{H } 1 1 {T } 1
p( H )   p( H does not)   
{H , T } 2 2 {H , T } 2

the opposite a head shows is a head does not show.

1 1
P( H shows)  P( H does not)    1
2 2

Example 18.50
A die is tossed once what is the probability that
(a) 4 show (b) 4 does not show.

Solution
{4} 1 {1,2,3,5,6} 5
p(4)   p(4 does not show)  
{1,2,3,4,5,6} 6 {1,2,3,4,5,6} 6
the opposite 4 show is 4 does not show.

P4 shows   P4 does not  

1 5
 1
6 6

From these two examples we can see that every probability plus its opposite is
equal to one.
⟹ 𝑷 𝑬 + 𝑷 𝑬, = 𝟏

The probability of a sure or certain event is 1, this is because the sample space is
equal to the event that is likely to occur.

If the event 𝑝(𝐴) occurs then the probability that “𝐴” does not occurs is 𝟏 − 𝒑(𝑨)
Let 𝒑(𝑨)’ represent probability that “𝐴” does not occurs let 𝑝(𝐴)’

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Example 18.51
A box contains 3 green balls, 6 blue balls and 5 yellow balls what is the probability
that a ball drawn at random is (a) green (b) not green.

Solution
{6  5} 11
(a) pgreen  (b) pnot green 
{3} 3
 
3  6  5 14 3  6  5 14

Using the complementary method

 P( green)  P(not green)  1

3
  P(not green)  1
14
3 11
 P(not green)  1  
14 14

Example 18.52
A committee is to be formed from x boys and y girls. Find the probability that the
first person is (a) boy (b) girl (c) one boy leaves the class find the probability of
selecting a boy (d) 3 girls join the class find the probability of selecting a boy

Solution
boys x
(a) ⟹ 𝑃 𝑏𝑜𝑦 = 
total in class x  y

girls y
(b) ⟹ 𝑃(𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) = 
total in class x  y

(c) Since one boy has left the number of boys will reduce by one to become x  1
boys x 1
⟹ 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑦) = 
total in class ( x  1)  y

(d) Since 3 girls join the class the number of girls will increase by 3 to become y  3
boys x
⟹ 𝑃 𝑏𝑜𝑦 = 
total in class x  ( y  3)

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Example 18.53
If a bag contains red balls and 8 blue balls, if the probability of picking a red ball is
1 , find the number of red balls
3

Solution
Let number of red balls be 𝑥.
x 1
P(red )  and also P(red) 
x 8 3
x 1
 
x8 3
 3x  1( x  8)
 3x  x  8
2x 8
 
2 2
x6

Example 18.54
If the probability of picking a boy from a class is 7 .Find the (a) number of boys (b)
10
number of girls in the class of 40 students, if boys are 12 more than girls.

Solution
(a) let girls be x then boys will be x  12
x  12 7
P(boys)  and also P(boys) 
40 10
x  12 7
 
40 10
 10( x  12)  7(40)
 10x  120  280
10 x 160
 
10 10
 x  16
Boys will be x  12  16  12  28 and girls will be 16

Example 18.55

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Three blue balls, five green balls and a number of red balls are put together in a sack
and one ball is picked at random from the sack. If the probability of picking a blue ball
1
is .
6
Find (i) the number of red balls in the sack (ii) the probability of picking a green ball

Solution
(i) Let 𝑥 be the total number of balls in the sack, since the probability of picking
a green ball is known we can find the total number of balls in the sack from
that,
1 3 1 3
P(B)= and P(B)= then =
6 x 6 x
3 6
x  18 ,
1
the total number of balls in the sack is 18, let t be the number of red balls hence
⟹ 𝑡 + 3 + 5 = 18  𝑡 = 18 − 8 = 10
The number of red balls is 10.

(b) pG   p G  
n(G ) n(G ) 5
𝑛(𝑆) = 18 𝑛(𝐺) = 5 
n( S ) n( S ) 18

Example 18.56
1
The probability that Seedorf scores in a football match is 4 . What is the probability
that he will not score in that match.

Solution
Let 𝑃(𝐸) = probability that Seedorf scores in a football match
𝑃(𝐸)’ = Probability that he will not score in that match
 P( E )'  1  P( E )
1
 P( E )'  1 
4
3
 P( E ) 
4

Example 18.57
Two coins are tossed once. Find probability that at least one of them will be a head.
Solution
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𝑆 = {𝐻1 𝐻2 , 𝐻1 𝑇2 , 𝑇1 𝐻2 , 𝑇1 𝑇2 }, 𝑛(𝑆) = 4

Let 𝑃(𝐸)’ = probability that at least one of them will be a head

1
Let 𝑃(𝐸) = probability that no head appears, 𝑃(𝐸) =
4
 P( E )'  1  P( E )
1
 P( E )'  1 
4
3
 P( E ) 
4

18.5 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Addition rule (“OR” rule)

As we know from our previous knowledge, “OR” in probability just means
addition, so let consider the following examples

Example 18.58
If 𝐴 = 1, 2, 3, 4, and 𝐵 = 5, 6, 7, 8 , if a number is selected at random from
one set, find the probability that it is from 𝐴 or 𝐵.

Example 18.59
If 𝐴 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 𝐵 = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 , if a number is selected at random
from one set, find the probability that it is from 𝐴 or 𝐵.

For example
Let try to use Venn diagram to analyze this problem, we can pick either from
𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵
A 6 B
2 5
1 4
3 8 7

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⟹ 𝐴+𝐵
⟹ 𝐴 1,2,3,4 + 𝐵 5,6,7,8
4 4
⟹ 𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐵 = + = 1
8 8
This concept is known as mutually exclusive
Mutually Exclusive means we can't get both events to occur at the same
time.
It is either event A or event B, but not both

For example 2, it possible that we can pick 2 and 4, which is in both sets, but
the number must not appear in both hence we must remove them, let try to
use Venn diagram to analyze this problem

A 5 2 6 B
1 10
3 4 8

⟹ 𝐴 + 𝐵 − 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑕
⟹ 𝐴 1,3,5 + 𝐵 6,8,10 − 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑕 2,4
⟹ 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
⟹ 𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
3 3 2 1
⟹ 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = + − =
8 8 8 2
This concept is known as mutually inclusive

Example 18.60
In the Liverpool football team, 15 play as defenders and 10 play as midfielders
and another 5 play as both defenders and midfielders. What is the probability
that a player selected plays either as a defender or midfielder.

Solution
This is mutually inclusive
15 1 10 1 5 1
𝑃 𝐷 = = , 𝑃 𝑀 = = 𝑃 𝐷 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀 = =
30 2 30 3 30 6
⟹ 𝑃 𝐷 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝑀 = 𝑃 𝐷 + 𝑃 𝑀 − 𝑃(𝐷 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀)

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1 1 1 2
⟹𝑃 𝐷 +𝑃 𝑀 = + − =
2 3 6 3

Example 18.61
In the Liverpool football team, 15 play as defenders and 10 plays as
midfielders. What is the probability that a player selected plays either as a
defender or midfielder?

Solution
This is mutually exclusive
15 1 10 1
𝑃 𝐷 = = , 𝑃 𝑀 = =
30 2 30 3
⟹ 𝑃 𝐷 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝑀 = 𝑃 𝐷 + 𝑃 𝑀
1 1 5
⟹𝑃 𝐷 +𝑃 𝑀 = + =
2 3 6
Example 18.62
If a die is thrown once what is the probability that 4 or 2 shows.

Solution
Let probability that 4 shows= 𝑃(𝐴) let probability that 2 shows= 𝑃(𝐵)
But 4 and 2 can’t occur together
1 1
𝑃 𝐴 = , 𝑃(𝐵) = ,
6 6
Probability that 4 or 2 shows
1 1 1
⟹𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵   
6 6 36

Example 18.63
A box contains 3 white, 3 red and 4 green balls, if a ball is drawn at random,
find the probability that
(a) It is either white or green (b) It is white or red or green

Solution
𝑃(𝑊) =probability that a white ball is drawn.
𝑃(𝐺) =probability that a green ball is drawn
𝑃(𝑅) =probability that a red ball is drawn

(a) Probability that either white or green

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3 4 7
⟹ P(W )  P(G)   
10 5 10

(b) Probability that white or red or green

3 4 3
⟹ P(W )  P(G)  P( R)     1
10 5 10

Example 18.64
A basket contains 12 mangoes of which 5 are ripe and 8 oranges of which 3 are ripe.
If a fruit is selected at random find the probability that
(a) is a mango (b) is an orange (c) is a ripe mango
(d) is a ripe orange (e) is a ripe fruit (f) is an unripe fruit

Solution
(a) is a mango
mango 12 12 3
⟹ 𝑃 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑜 =   
total in basket 8  12 20 5

(b) is an orange
orange 8 8
⟹ 𝑃(𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒) =  
total in basket 8  12 20

(c) is a ripe mango

ripe mango 5 5
⟹ 𝑃 𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑜 =  
total in basket 8  12 20

(d) is a ripe orange

ripe orange 3 3
⟹ 𝑃(𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑒 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒) =  
total in basket 8  12 20

(e) is a ripe fruit

ripe fruit 35 8
⟹ 𝑃(𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑢𝑖𝑡) =  
total in basket 8  12 20

(f) is an unripe fruit

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ripe fruit 5  7 12
⟹ 𝑃(𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑢𝑖𝑡) =  
total in basket 8  12 20

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Multiplication (“AND”) rule

Let analyze the example below, two coins are tossed together, what the
probability of getting a head and a tail.

The number of possible outcome is 𝐻1 𝐻2 , 𝐻1 𝑇2 , 𝑇1 𝐻2 , 𝑇1 𝑇2 = 4,

Event a head and a tail is 𝐻1 𝑇2, 𝑇1 𝐻2 = 2
2 1
𝑃 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 = =
4 2

from the example above, 𝑃 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 in set theory can also be represented as
𝑃 𝐻 ∩ 𝑇 , but from our previous knowledge "𝑨𝑵𝑫" in probability means
multiplication,

We also realize that the outcome of the first coin does not affect the outcome
of the second coin, in such situation; we say that they are independent of each
other.

From our example 𝑃 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 can be written as 𝑃 𝐻 × 𝑃 𝑇

𝑷 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑨 × 𝑷 𝑩 × 𝑷 𝑪

Example 18.65
If a die and a coin are tossed together, find the probability that a 2 and a head
appears

Solution
Let probability that 2 show be 𝑃(𝐵) Let probability that head shows be 𝑃(𝐴)
1 1
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐵) =
2 6
1 1 1
 P( A)  P( B)   
6 2 12

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Probability

Example 18.66
A ball is selected at random from a box containing 4 red, 6 yellow and 5 green. What
is the probability that it is
(a) red (b) yellow (c) green (d) red or yellow
(e) red but not green (f) neither red or yellow (g) red and yellow

Solution
4 6 5 1
𝑎 𝑃 𝑅𝑒𝑑 = 𝑏 𝑃 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 = (𝑐) 𝑃(𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 
15 15 15 3

(𝑑) 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤

4 6 10 2
   
15 15 15 3

(e) Red but not green means it can be red or yellow

4 6 10 2
   
15 15 15 3

(f) Neither red or yellow means only green

5 1
 𝑃(𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 
15 3

(g) Red and yellow

4 6 24
  
15 15 225

Example 18.67
1
The probability that Jordan Henderson scores in a match is , and the
3
1
probability that Eden Hazard also scores is . What is the probability that
4
(a) Both scores (b) None scores (c) Only Jordan Henderson scores
(d) Only one scores (e) At least one of them scores

Solution
1
let 𝑃(𝐴) represent probability that Jordan Henderson scores, 𝑃 𝐴 =
3
1
let 𝑃(𝐵) represent probability that Eden Hazard scores, 𝑃 𝐵 =
4

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Probability

let 𝑃(𝐴)′ represent probability that Jordan Henderson does not scores,
1 2
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴)′ = 1 − =
3 3
′
let 𝑃(𝐵) represent probability that Eden Hazard does not scores
1 3
⟹ 𝑃(𝐵)′ = 1 − =
4 4

(a) Jordan scored and Eden scored which is expressed as

⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
1 1 1
⟹ × =
3 4 12

(b) Jordan didn’t score and Eden didn’t score which is expressed as
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵)′
2 3 1
⟹ × =
3 4 2

(c) Jordan scored and Eden didn’t score which is expressed as

⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)′
1 3 1
⟹ × =
3 4 4

(d) Only one scored, but we don’t know who scored hence we consider all
possible probabilities
if (Jordan score, Eden will not score) or (if Eden score, Jordan will not score)
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)′ + 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵)
1 3 2 1
⟹ × + ×
3 4 3 4
1 1 1
⟹ + =
4 6 24

Example 18.68
2 4
The probability that Oscar wins an election is , willian wins an election is and
5 7
1
Pep wins an election is . What is the probability that
3
(a) All wins (b) None wins (c) Only Oscar wins
(d) Only Oscar and Pep wins (e) one of them wins
(f) Two of them wins (g) At least one of them scores

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Probability

Solution
2
let 𝑃(𝐴) represent probability that Oscar wins, 𝑃 𝐴 =
5
4
let 𝑃(𝐵) represent probability that willian wins, 𝑃 𝐵 =
7
1
let 𝑃(𝐶) represent probability that Pep wins, 𝑃 𝐶 =
3
′
let 𝑃(𝐴) represent probability that Oscar does not win
2 3
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴)′ = 1 − =
5 5
′
let 𝑃(𝐵) represent probability that willian does not scores
4 3
⟹ 𝑃(𝐵)′ = 1 − =
7 7
′
let 𝑃(𝐶) represent probability that Pep does not scores
1 2
⟹ 𝑃(𝐶)′ = 1 − =
3 3

(a) Oscar wins and willian wins and Pep wins which is expressed as
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)
2 4 1 8
⟹ × × =
5 7 3 105

(b) Oscar doesn’t win and willian doesn’t win and Pep doesn’t win which is
expressed as
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵)′ × 𝑃(𝐶)′
3 3 2 6
⟹ × × =
5 7 3 35

(c) Oscar wins and willian doesn’t win and Pep doesn’t win which is
expressed as
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)′ × 𝑃(𝐶)′
2 3 2 4
⟹ × × =
5 7 3 35

(d) Oscar wins and Pep wins and willian doesn’t win which is expressed as
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)′
2 3 1 2
⟹ × × =
5 7 3 35

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Probability

(e) (Oscar wins the other two will not win) or (willian wins the other two will
not win) or (Pep wins the other two will not win)
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)′ × 𝑃(𝐶)′ + 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)′ + 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵)′ × 𝑃(𝐶)
2 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 1
= × × + × × + × ×
5 7 3 5 7 3 5 7 3
4 8 3
= + +
35 35 35
15 3
= =
35 7

(f) (Oscar does not win the other two win) or (willian does not win the other
two win) or (Pep does not win the other two wins)
⟹ 𝑃(𝐴)′ × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)′ × 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)′
3 4 1 2 3 1 2 4 2
= × × + × × + × ×
5 7 3 5 7 3 5 7 3
4 2 16
= + +
35 35 105
34
=
105
(g) 𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒𝑚 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 = 1 − 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠
6 29
⟹ 1 − 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 = 1 − =
35 35
Example 18.69
The probabilities of three teams Dwarfs, Hearts and kotoko winning are
𝑎, 𝑏 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐 respectively. Find the probability that only one wins.

Solution
Dwarfs wins 𝐷 = 𝑎 Dwarfs does not wins 𝐷/ = 1 − 𝑎
Hearts wins 𝐻 = 𝑏 Hearts does not wins 𝐻/ = 1 − 𝑏
kotoko wins 𝐾 = 𝑐 kotoko does not wins 𝐾 / = 1 − 𝑐

𝐷𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑓𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑜𝑡𝑜𝑘𝑜 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠

⟹ 𝐷 × 𝐻 × 𝐾 + 𝐷 × 𝐻 × 𝐾 + 𝐷/ × 𝐻/ × 𝐾
/ / / /

⟹ 𝑎 × 1 − 𝑏 × 1 − 𝑐 + 1 − 𝑎 × 𝑏 × 1 − 𝑐 + [(1 − 𝑎) × (1 − 𝑏) × 𝑐]

Example 18.70

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Probability

The probabilities of three teams Dwarfs, Hearts and kotoko winning are
1 2 31
𝑎, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 respectively. Find 𝑎 if the probability that only one wins is .
4 5 72

Solution
Dwarfs wins 𝐷 = 𝑎 Dwarfs does not wins 𝐷/ = 1 − 𝑎
1 1 3
Hearts wins 𝐻 = 4 Hearts does not wins 𝐻/ = 1 − 4 = 4
1 1 2
kotoko wins 𝐾 = kotoko does not wins 𝐾/ = 1 − =
3 3 3

𝐷𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑓𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑘𝑜𝑡𝑜𝑘𝑜 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠

⟹ 𝐷 × 𝐻/ × 𝐾 / + 𝐷/ × 𝐻 × 𝐾 / + 𝐷/ × 𝐻/ × 𝐾
3 2 1 2 3 1 31
⟹ 𝑎× × + 1−𝑎 × × + 1−𝑎 × × =
4 3 4 3 4 3 72
6 2 3 31
⟹ 𝑎+ 1−𝑎 + 1−𝑎 =
12 12 12 72
6 2 2 3 3 31
⟹ 𝑎− 𝑎+ − 𝑎+ =
12 12 12 12 12 72
1 5 31
⟹ 𝑎+ =
12 12 72
1 31 5
⟹ 𝑎= −
12 72 12
1 1
⟹ 𝑎=
12 72
12 × 1 1
⟹𝑎= =
1 × 72 6

With and without replacement concept

For with replacement when an object is drawn, it is replaced back and hence
can be drawn again, whilst for without replacement an object drawn is not
replaced again, hence the total number of balls reduces.

Example 18.71
A jar contains 5 balls of which 3 are red and the rest green. If two balls are
picked at random, one after the other .
(I) with replacement (II) without replacement

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Probability

what is the probability that

(a) both is red (b) both is green
(c) red followed by green (d) green followed by red.

Solution
With replacement
(a) With replacement mean when one ball is taken it is replaced back.
Both is red means first is red and second is red.
Number of the 1st red balls equal to number of the 2nd red balls since the ball was
replaced.
3 3 9
  
8 8 64

(b) Both is green means first is green and second is green

5 5 25
  
8 8 64

(c) red followed by green means first is red and second is green
3 5 15
  
8 8 64

(d) Green followed by red means first is green and second is red
5 3 15
  
8 8 64
without replacement
(a) Both is red means first is red and second is red. After the first ball thus red is
picked number of red balls reduces by one and the total number of balls also
reduces by one.
3 2 6
  
8 7 56

(b) Both is green means first is green and second is green

5 4 20
  
8 7 56

(c) Red followed by green means first is red and second is green(all balls will remain
the same except that the total number of balls for the 2 nd will be 7 since one red has
been taken

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Probability

3 5 15
  
8 7 56

(d) Green followed by red, means first is green and second is red
5 3 15
  
8 7 56

Example 18.72
A bag contains 7 balls, if 3 balls are picked at random (a) with replacement
(b) without replacement, find the probability after the 3rd ball had been picked.

Solution
(a) For the first one when the ball was picked it was replaced again, hence the
number of balls remained the same after the 3rd.
⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑
3 3 3 27
⟹ × × =
7 7 7 343

(b) For the without replacement

the number of balls always reduces since the ball is not replaced back
⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑
3 2 1 6 1
⟹ × × = =
7 6 5 210 35

Example 18.73
If a bag contains 𝑥 balls of which 3 are red, 7 are green. If 3 balls are picked at
random (a) without replacement (b) with replacement find the probability of
picking (i) all red balls (ii) all green balls (iii) the first 2 is red balls and last is
green ball (iv) first is a red ball and last 2 are green balls (v) one red

Solution
(a) Without replacement
(i) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝑅
3 2 1 6
⟹ × × =
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2

(ii) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

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Probability

7 6 5 210
⟹ × × =
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2

(iii) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

3 2 7 42
⟹ × × =
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2

(iv) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

3 7 6 126
⟹ × × =
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2

(vi) one red but since we don’t know the exact position of the red ball, we
must find all the possible outcomes
⟹ 𝑃 𝑅𝐺𝐺 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐺𝑅𝐺 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐺𝐺𝑅
126 126 126
= + +
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2
378
=
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥−2

(b) with replacement

(i) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝑅
3 3 3 27
⟹ × × = 3
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

(ii) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

7 7 7 343
⟹ × × = 3
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

(iii) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

3 3 7 63
⟹ × × = 3
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

(iv) ⟹ 𝑃 1𝑠𝑡 𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝐺

3 7 7 147
⟹ × × = 3
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

(v) one red but since we don’t know the exact position of the red ball, we
must find all the possible outcomes
⟹ 𝑃 𝑅𝐺𝐺 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐺𝑅𝐺 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐺𝐺𝑅
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Probability

147 147 147

= + 3 + 3
𝑥3 𝑥 𝑥
441
=
𝑥3
Example 18.74
A bag contains 𝑥 balls of which 𝑎 red and 𝑏 blue. Find the probability of
picking 2 balls (a) without replacement (b) with replacement
Find the probability of picking
(i) a red ball followed by a blue ball (ii) a blue ball followed by a red ball
(iii) a red ball followed by a red ball (iv) same colour (v) different colour

Solution
(a) without replacement
𝑎 𝑏 𝑏 𝑎 𝑎 𝑎−1
𝑖 × 𝑖𝑖 × 𝑖𝑖𝑖 ×
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥 𝑥−1

𝑖𝑣 all red or all blue

𝑎 𝑎−1 𝑏 𝑏−1
× + ×
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥 𝑥−1

𝑣 (red and blue) or (blue and red)

𝑎 𝑏 𝑏 𝑎
× + ×
𝑥 𝑥−1 𝑥 𝑥−1

(b) with replacement

𝑎 𝑏 𝑏 𝑎 𝑎 𝑎
(𝑖) × (𝑖𝑖) × (𝑖𝑖𝑖) ×
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

𝑎 𝑎 𝑏 𝑏 𝑎 𝑏 𝑏 𝑎
𝑖𝑣 × + × 𝑣 × + ×
𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥

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Probability

18.6 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is the probability that event 𝐴 occurs given that event 𝐵
has already occurred.
𝐴
Conditional probability is written, 𝑃 and is read "the probability of 𝐴,
𝐵
𝑨 𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
given 𝐵" has occurred. It is defined by 𝑷 =
𝑩 𝑷 𝑩

Example 18.75
2 3 1
if 𝑃 𝐴 = , 𝑃 𝐵 = and 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
5 7 6
𝐴 𝐵
Find (a) 𝑃 (b) 𝑃
𝐵 𝐴

Solution
𝐴 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
(a) from 𝑃 = (b) from 𝑃 =
𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴
1 1
6 6
𝐴 7 𝐵 5
⟹𝑃 = = ⟹𝑃 = =
𝐵 3 18 𝐴 2 12
7 5

Example 18.76
A fair is tossed once and an odd number is shown, find the probability that the
number less than 5 is obtained.

Solution
4 2
Let 𝑷 𝑨 = 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 "𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡𝑕𝑎𝑛 5" 𝐴 = 1,2,3,4 𝑃 𝐴 = =
6 3
3 1
Let 𝑷 𝑩 = 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 "𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟" 𝐵 = 1,3,5 𝑃 𝐵 = =
6 2
2 1
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 , 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 1,3 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = =
6 3
1
3
𝐴 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 2
𝑃 = = =
𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 1 3
2

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Probability

Example 18.77
Of a company’s employees, 30% are women and 6% are married women.
Suppose an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that she is
a woman and married.

Solution
30
Let 𝑃 𝐴 =
100
6 1
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = =
100 3
6
𝐵 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 1
𝑃 = = 100 =
𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 30 5
100

Example 18.78
Let A denote the event 'student is female' and let B denote the event 'student is
French'. In a class of 100 students suppose 60 are French, and suppose that 10 of
the French students are females. Find the probability that if I pick a French student, it
will be a girl, that is, find 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵).

Solution
Since 10 out of 100 students are both French and female, then
10
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) =
100
Also, 60 out of the 100 students are French, so
60
𝑃(𝐵) =
100

So the required probability is:

10
𝐴 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 100 1
𝑃 = = =
𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 60 6
100

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Probability

EXERCISE
(1)Find the sample space and event of the following probability
(a) A coin is tossed and we want to get a head
(b) From the colours red, yellow, green, blue, brown, black.
Select blue and green.
(c) From a class of 60 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 select a girl if the are 30 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 30 𝑏𝑜𝑦𝑠.

(2) A box contains 6 red balls and 4 yellow balls. What is the possible outcome if a ball is drawn?

(3) five coin is tossed what is the sample space

(4) seven coins are tossed, what is the sample space

(5) four coins are tossed, what is the sample space

(6) A 𝑘 coins are tossed, what is the sample space

(7) five dice are thrown, what is the sample space

(8) six dice are thrown, what is the sample space

(9) 𝑘 dice are thrown, what is the sample space

(10) What is the probability of obtaining a number 3 when a die is rolled once?

(11) What is the probability of obtaining at least one tail when a pair of coins is tossed?

(12) A box cont ai ns 5 bl ack an d 8 red b al l s o f t he sam e si ze. I f a bal l i s dra wn at

random what i s t he pro babi l i t y of obt ai ni ng a bl ack bal l

(13) In a race, five students competed from the green house, six from the red house, four from the
white house and one from the yellow house. Find the probability that a student from white house
wins the race

(14) In a class of 80 students, 30 offer physics and the rest offer math.
Find the Probability that a student chosen at random offers math.

(15) A bag contains 8 red balls. What is the probability that if a ball is drawn its is (a) red (b) yellow

(16) The letters in the word probability are placed in a box. If a letter is drawn at random, what is the
probability that it is (a) B (b) Y

(17) A coin is tossed once what is the probability that (a) a tail shows
(b) a taildoes not show.

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Probability

(18) A box contains 6green balls,9 blue balls and 5yellow balls what is the probability that a ball
drawn at random is (a) green (b)not green.

(19) A committee is to be formed from 𝑎 boys and b girls. Find the probability that the first person
is (a) boy (b)girl (c)one boy leaves the class find the probability of selecting a boy (d) 5 girls join
the class find the probability of selecting a boy

(20) If a bag contains red balls and 6 blue balls, if the probability of picking a red ball is 2 , Find the
7
number of red balls

(21) if the probability of picking a boy from a class is 4 .Find the (a) number of boys (b)number of
5
girls in the class of 70students. If boys are 15 more than girls.

(22) five blue balls, six green balls and a number of red balls are put together in a sack and one ball is
1
picked at random from the sack. If the probability of picking a blue ball is .
3
Find (i) the number of red balls in the sack (ii) the probability of picking a green ball
1
(23) The probability that Seedorf scores in a football match is 7.What is the probability that he will not
score in that match.

(24) Two coins are tossed once. Find probability that at least one of them will be a tail.

(25) In the Accra hearts of oak football team, 25 play as defenders and 15 play as midfielders and
another 10 play as both defenders and midfielders. What is the probability that a player selected
plays either as a defender or midfielder.

(26) A box contains 3 white, 3 red and 4 green balls, if a ball is drawn at random,
find the probability that
(a) It is either white or green (b) It is white or red or green

(27)A basket contains 10 mangoes of which 7 is ripe and 5 oranges of which 3 is ripe. If a fruit is
selected at random find the probability that (a)is a mango (b)is an orange (c) is a ripe mango (d)
is a ripe orange (e) is a ripe fruit (f) is an unripe fruit

(28) A ball is selected at random from a box containing 4 red, 6 yellow and 5 green. What is the
probability that it is
(a)red (b)yellow (c)green (d)red or yellow (e)red but not green
(f) neither red or yellow (g)red and yellow

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