02-Linear Regression Project - Solutions

February 16, 2023

___ # Linear Regression

The company is trying to decide whether to focus their efforts on their mobile app experience or
their website. They’ve hired you on contract to help them figure it out! Let’s get started!
Just follow the steps below to analyze the customer data (it’s fake, don’t worry I didn’t give you
real credit card numbers or emails).

0.1 Imports
** Import pandas, numpy, matplotlib,and seaborn. Then set %matplotlib inline (You’ll import
sklearn as you need it.)**

[1]: import pandas as pd

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
%matplotlib inline

0.2 Get the Data

We’ll work with the Ecommerce Customers csv file from the company. It has Customer info, suchas
Email, Address, and their color Avatar. Then it also has numerical value columns:
• Avg. Session Length: Average session of in-store style advice sessions.
• Time on App: Average time spent on App in minutes
• Time on Website: Average time spent on Website in minutes
• Length of Membership: How many years the customer has been a member.
** Read in the Ecommerce Customers csv file as a DataFrame called customers.**
[2]: customers = pd.read_csv("Ecommerce Customers")

Check the head of customers, and check out its info() and describe() methods.

[3]: customers.head()

[3]: Email \
0 [email protected]
1 [email protected]

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 2 [email protected]
3 [email protected]
4 [email protected]

Address Avatar \
0 835 Frank Tunnel\nWrightmouth, MI 82180-9605 Violet
1 4547 Archer Common\nDiazchester, CA 06566-8576 DarkGreen
2 24645 Valerie Unions Suite 582\nCobbborough, D… Bisque
3 1414 David Throughway\nPort Jason, OH 22070-1220 SaddleBrown
4 14023 Rodriguez Passage\nPort Jacobville, PR 3… MediumAquaMarine

Avg. Session Length Time on App Time on Website Length of Membership \

0 34.497268 12.655651 39.577668 4.082621
1 31.926272 11.109461 37.268959 2.664034
2 33.000915 11.330278 37.110597 4.104543
3 34.305557 13.717514 36.721283 3.120179
4 33.330673 12.795189 37.536653 4.446308

Yearly Amount Spent

0 587.951054
1 392.204933
2 487.547505
3 581.852344
4 599.406092

[4]: customers.describe()

[4]: Avg. Session Length Time on App Time on Website \

count 500.000000 500.000000 500.000000
mean 33.053194 12.052488 37.060445
std 0.992563 0.994216 1.010489
min 29.532429 8.508152 33.913847
25% 32.341822 11.388153 36.349257
50% 33.082008 11.983231 37.069367
75% 33.711985 12.753850 37.716432
max 36.139662 15.126994 40.005182

Length of Membership Yearly Amount Spent

count 500.000000 500.000000
mean 3.533462 499.314038
std 0.999278 79.314782
min 0.269901 256.670582
25% 2.930450 445.038277
50% 3.533975 498.887875
75% 4.126502 549.313828
max 6.922689 765.518462

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[5]: customers.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 500 entries, 0 to 499
Data columns (total 8 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 Email 500 non-null object
1 Address 500 non-null object
2 Avatar 500 non-null object
3 Avg. Session Length 500 non-null float64
4 Time on App 500 non-null float64
5 Time on Website 500 non-null float64
6 Length of Membership 500 non-null float64
7 Yearly Amount Spent 500 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(5), object(3)
memory usage: 31.4+ KB

0.3 Exploratory Data Analysis

Let’s explore the data!
For the rest of the exercise we’ll only be using the numerical data of the csv file. ___ Use
seaborn to create a jointplot to compare the Time on Website and Yearly Amount
Spent columns. Does the correlation make sense?
[6]: sns.set_palette("GnBu_d")
sns.set_style('whitegrid')

[7]: # More time on site, more money spent.

sns.jointplot(x='Time on Website',y='Yearly Amount Spent',data=customers)

[7]: <seaborn.axisgrid.JointGrid at 0x7f1fc98b2910>

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 ** Do the same but with the Time on App column instead. **
[8]: sns.jointplot(x='Time on App',y='Yearly Amount Spent',data=customers)

[8]: <seaborn.axisgrid.JointGrid at 0x7f1fc6a11790>

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 ** Use jointplot to create a 2D hex bin plot comparing Time on App and Length of Membership.**
[9]: sns.jointplot(x='Time on App',y='Length of␣
↪Membership',kind='hex',data=customers)

[9]: <seaborn.axisgrid.JointGrid at 0x7f1fc67cf910>

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 Let’s explore these types of relationships across the entire data set. Use pairplot to
recreate the plot below.(Don’t worry about the the colors)

[10]: sns.pairplot(customers)

[10]: <seaborn.axisgrid.PairGrid at 0x7f1fc69ec110>

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 Based off this plot what looks to be the most correlated feature with Yearly Amount
Spent?
[11]: # Length of Membership

Create a linear model plot (using seaborn’s lmplot) of Yearly Amount Spent vs. Length
of Membership.
[12]: sns.lmplot(x='Length of Membership',y='Yearly Amount Spent',data=customers)

[12]: <seaborn.axisgrid.FacetGrid at 0x7f1fc37b2090>

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 0.4 Training and Testing Data
Now that we’ve explored the data a bit, let’s go ahead and split the data into training and testing
sets. ** Set a variable X equal to the numerical features of the customers and a variable y equal
to the “Yearly Amount Spent” column. **
[13]: y = customers['Yearly Amount Spent']

[14]: X = customers[['Avg. Session Length', 'Time on App','Time on Website', 'Length␣

↪of Membership']]

** Use model_selection.train_test_split from sklearn to split the data into training and testing
sets. Set test_size=0.3 and random_state=101**
[15]: from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

[16]: X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.3,␣

↪random_state=101)

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 0.5 Training the Model
Now its time to train our model on our training data!
** Import LinearRegression from sklearn.linear_model **
[17]: from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

Create an instance of a LinearRegression() model named lm.

[18]: lm = LinearRegression()

** Train/fit lm on the training data.**

[19]: lm.fit(X_train,y_train)

[19]: LinearRegression()

Print out the coefficients of the model

[20]: # The coefficients
print('Coefficients: \n', lm.coef_)

Coefficients:
[25.98154972 38.59015875 0.19040528 61.27909654]

0.6 Predicting Test Data

Now that we have fit our model, let’s evaluate its performance by predicting off the test values!
** Use lm.predict() to predict off the X_test set of the data.**

[21]: predictions = lm.predict( X_test)

** Create a scatterplot of the real test values versus the predicted values. **
[22]: plt.scatter(y_test,predictions)
plt.xlabel('Y Test')
plt.ylabel('Predicted Y')

[22]: Text(0, 0.5, 'Predicted Y')

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 0.7 Evaluating the Model
Let’s evaluate our model performance by calculating the residual sum of squares and the explained
variance score (R^2).
** Calculate the Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, and the Root Mean Squared Error.
Refer to the lecture or to Wikipedia for the formulas**
[23]: # calculate these metrics by hand!
from sklearn import metrics

print('MAE:', metrics.mean_absolute_error(y_test, predictions))

print('MSE:', metrics.mean_squared_error(y_test, predictions))
print('RMSE:', np.sqrt(metrics.mean_squared_error(y_test, predictions)))

MAE: 7.228148653430853
MSE: 79.81305165097487
RMSE: 8.933815066978656

0.8 Residuals
You should have gotten a very good model with a good fit. Let’s quickly explore the residuals to
make sure everything was okay with our data.
Plot a histogram of the residuals and make sure it looks normally distributed. Use
either seaborn distplot, or just plt.hist().

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[24]: sns.distplot((y_test-predictions),bins=50);

0.9 Conclusion
We still want to figure out the answer to the original question, do we focus our efforst on mobile
app or website development? Or maybe that doesn’t even really matter, and Membership Time is
what is really important. Let’s see if we can interpret the coefficients at all to get an idea.
** Recreate the dataframe below. **
[25]: coeffecients = pd.DataFrame(lm.coef_,X.columns)
coeffecients.columns = ['Coeffecient']
coeffecients

[25]: Coeffecient
Avg. Session Length 25.981550
Time on App 38.590159
Time on Website 0.190405
Length of Membership 61.279097

** How can you interpret these coefficients? **

Interpreting the coefficients:
• Holding all other features fixed, a 1 unit increase in Avg. Session Length is associated
with an increase of 25.98 total dollars spent.

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 • Holding all other features fixed, a 1 unit increase in Time on App is associated with an
increase of 38.59 total dollars spent.
• Holding all other features fixed, a 1 unit increase in Time on Website is associated with an
increase of 0.19 total dollars spent.
• Holding all other features fixed, a 1 unit increase in Length of Membership is associated
with an increase of 61.27 total dollars spent.
Do you think the company should focus more on their mobile app or on their website?
This is tricky, there are two ways to think about this: Develop the Website to catch up to the
performance of the mobile app, or develop the app more since that is what is working better. This
sort of answer really depends on the other factors going on at the company, you would probably
want to explore the relationship between Length of Membership and the App or the Website before
coming to a conclusion!

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