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Exercise On Forecasting

The document provides data on weekly visitor numbers to a zoo over 7 weeks. It then asks to forecast visitor numbers for week 8 using 4 different forecasting methods: 1) naive forecast method, 2) 3-period moving average, 3) 5-week weighted moving average, and 4) exponential smoothing. For each method, it shows the calculations and forecasts visitor numbers for week 8. It also provides data to calculate forecasting accuracy measures - mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE).

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Caio Alves
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141 views2 pages

Exercise On Forecasting

The document provides data on weekly visitor numbers to a zoo over 7 weeks. It then asks to forecast visitor numbers for week 8 using 4 different forecasting methods: 1) naive forecast method, 2) 3-period moving average, 3) 5-week weighted moving average, and 4) exponential smoothing. For each method, it shows the calculations and forecasts visitor numbers for week 8. It also provides data to calculate forecasting accuracy measures - mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE).

Uploaded by

Caio Alves
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exercise on Forecasting

Exercise Question 1
John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of the number of visitors to Metro Zoo. He has
gathered the following data on the number of visitors over the last seven weeks:

Week Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7


Visitors 620 730 880 700 830 1,020 900

Based on the data above, what is John’s forecast of the number of visitors for week 8 using
each of the following methods?

a) Naïve forecast Method Ft = Dt-1

Week 8 Forecast F 8 = D7 900 = 900 visitors

b) A three-period moving average Ft = (Dt-1 + Dt-2 + Dt-3)/3

Week 8 Forecast F8 = (D7 + D6 + D5)/3 (900+1,020+830)/3 = 916.67 Visitors

c) A five-week weighted moving average using a weight of 0.3 for t-1 (i.e., one period before),
0.25 for t-2 (i.e., two periods before), 0.2 for t-3 (i.e., three periods before), 0.15 for t-4 (i.e.,
four periods before) and 0.1 for t-5 (i.e., five periods before).

Five-week weighted moving average F8 = (0.3xD7) + (0.25xD6) + (0.2xD5) + (0.15xD4) +


(0.1xD3)/(0.3+0.25+0.2+0.15+0.1)

Week 8 Forecast (0.3x900) + (0.25x1,020) + (0.2x830) + (0.15x700) + (0.1x880)/1 =


884 Visitors

d) An Exponential Smoothing method, assuming that the forecast for week 5 was 900, using a
value of 0.3 for α .

Exponential Smoothing method #2 Ft = Ft-1 + α(Dt-1 - Ft-1)

Week 6 Forecast F6 = 900 + 0.3(830 - 900) = 879


Week 7 Forecast F7 = 879 + 0.3(1,020 - 879) = 921.3
Week 8 Forecast F8 = 921.3 + 0.3(900 - 921.3) = 914.91 Visitors
Exercise Question 2
Based on the data shown in the table below,

Calculate the forecasting performance measures using the following methods. [Show all your
calculations and put each of your final answers in the box in front of each method].

Period A F (e)t Abs(et) et2 [Abs (et) / Dt] x 100%

1 54 58 -4 4 16 (4/54)x100 = 7.41%

2 47 56 -9 9 81 (9/47)x100 = 19.15%

3 50 52 -2 2 4 (2/50)x100 = 4%

4 42 51 -9 9 81 (9/42)x100 = 21.43%

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)= 6

Mean Squared Error (MSE)= 45.5


q

Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) = 13%

Exercise 2 Calculations:

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