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Week 4 Estimating Population Size Activity

1. The Lincoln Index method involves capturing and marking a sample of organisms, releasing them, recapturing organisms, and using the ratio of marked to unmarked organisms to estimate total population size. 2. The Schnabel Index method involves multiple captures and uses the total number marked and caught each time to estimate population size. 3. Estimates using mark-recapture methods provide a range rather than an exact count and make assumptions about the population that may not always be met, so estimates may differ from the true population size.

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435 views4 pages

Week 4 Estimating Population Size Activity

1. The Lincoln Index method involves capturing and marking a sample of organisms, releasing them, recapturing organisms, and using the ratio of marked to unmarked organisms to estimate total population size. 2. The Schnabel Index method involves multiple captures and uses the total number marked and caught each time to estimate population size. 3. Estimates using mark-recapture methods provide a range rather than an exact count and make assumptions about the population that may not always be met, so estimates may differ from the true population size.

Uploaded by

Halkawt Amin
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Ecology practical week4 Estimation population size of organisms

Estimating Population Size


The best way to measure the size of a population is to count all the individuals in that population.
When determining the population sizes of trees or other relatively immobile organisms, this
method is practical. If the organism is mobile, however, such as a fish, counting every individual
would be difficult. Some individuals might be counted twice or not at all, since the experimenter
would not know which fish had been counted and which had not.

Knowing the size of a population of animals is important in making environmental decisions


that would affect the population, but estimating the size of wild populations is extremely difficult.

line-transect survey method


involves observing every animal seen while traveling in a straight line. Although traditionally used for
counting land animals, the line-transect survey method has recently been applied to whales, providing more
reliable data.

Lincoln Index method


Another method often used to estimate population size is the "mark and capture" technique,
in which scientists capture some animals from the population, mark them, and release them. At a
later time, the scientists again capture animals from the same population and observe how many
of them are marked.
The method assumes that the ratio of the actual population to the sample size is the same as the ratio of the
number of marked animals to the number marked in the recapture sample.

Knowing three of the four values [ recapture sample size (N2), number originally
marked (N1), and number marked in the recapture sample (R)], scientists can calculate an
estimate of the actual population size (P). This method of estimation is called the Lincoln Index.

(𝐍𝟏 𝐱 𝐍𝟐)
P=
𝐑
P = total size of population
N1 = size of first sample (all marked)
N2 = size of second sample (recapture: some will be marked, some won’t)
R = number of marked individuals recaptured in second sample

The Lincoln Index makes several assumptions that must be met if the estimate is to be accurate.
These assumptions are:

 The population of organisms must be closed, with no immigration or emigration.


 The time between samples must be very small compared to the life length of the organism
being sampled.
 The marked organisms must mix completely with the rest of the population during the
time between the two samples.

Example: suppose you want to know how many turtles are in a wooded park. On the first day, you hunt
through the woods and capture 24 turtles. You places spot of paint on each turtles shell and reslase all
them back. A week later you catch 60 turtles. Of these 15 are marked and 45 are unmarked, since you
know how many turtles you marked, sampled, and captured, calculate the population size
(𝟐𝟒 𝐱 𝟔𝟎)
P= = 96
𝟏𝟓
Example: biologist nets 45 largemouth bass from a farm pond, tags their fins, and releases them
unharmed. A week later, she nets 58 bass from the pond, including 26 with tags. Based on the
Lincoln-Peterson index, estimate the number of bass in the pond.

Schnabel index method


ecologists sometimes use multiple marks and recaptures and the Schnabel index to estimate population
size:

where Mi = the total number of previously marked animals at time i,


Ci = the number caught at time i,
and Ri = the number of marked animals caught at time i.

As an example, suppose we caught and marked 100 animals in our first sample, in a second sample
captured 85 animals (15 marked and 70 unmarked), and then captured 105 animals (25 marked and 80
unmarked) in a third sample. We would then have the following:

Note that Mi at time 1 is zero; this happens because we start this sampling with no marked
animals. For each subsequent time period, Mi is simply the sum of all previous values in the “New
marked” column. From the above, we can estimate population size as

Note that had we sampled only two times, our population size estimate would be 567, so this value
is dependent on the number of samples taken.
Lab Exercise: Mark-Recapture of Pinto Beans
How do population estimates using mark-recapture techniques compare to the true population
size?

Preparation
Mark-recapture involves marking a set number of organisms, releasing them back into the
population where they mix with unmarked individuals, and then doing a second collecting visit.
Since mark-recapture typically requires a substantial time between marking and recapturing (at
least 24 hours, and generally longer), we will simulate the process using the incredibly non-mobile
pinto bean in place of a mobile animal.

Materials (per laboratory team)


Container to hold 400 beans
400 beans
Sampling container (such as a centrifuge tube)
Marker
Procedure
1. Obtain a container and add 400 beans to it.
2. Obtain a sampler (a centrifuge tube) and collect a sample of beans by filling the sampler to the
top. Count and record the number collected and mark each collected bean with a marker. After
marking, return the beans to the population and thoroughly mix the beans by shaking the
container.
3. Draw out a second sample. Record the number of marked and unmarked beans, but do not
return this to the population just yet. You will use these numbers to estimate population size using
the Lincoln- Peterson index.
4. Now mark each unmarked bean and return this sample to the population, thoroughly mix, and
then take a third sample. Again, count the number of marked and unmarked beans, mark the
unmarked beans and return the sample to the bean population.
5. Take a fourth and final sample, and count marked and unmarked beans. Now you have the data
necessary to estimate population size using the Schnabel index.

Data Analysis: Population Size Estimate


1. Enter your data in the table below.
Table 2 Mark-Recapture Data

Using the Lincoln-Peterson index, calculate the number of pinto beans in the population (N).
Using the Schnabel index, calculate the number of pinto beans in the population (N). Show
your calculations.

Exercise:
1. How do your estimates compare to the true population size? If your estimated values differ
from the true value, why do you think this might have occurred?

2. Did the Schnabel index give you a better estimate of the actual population size than did the
Lincoln- Peterson index? Why

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