01 Understanding Natural Selection
01 Understanding Natural Selection
01 Understanding Natural Selection
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Chapter
The following observations about patterns in nature have captured the imagi-
nation of humans for millennia.
1. Fit of form and function (FF&F): different organisms appear remarkably
well suited and engineered for their particular environments. The high-
crowned molars of zebras and white rhinoceros act as mulching mowers
for grinding grass, and protect against the inevitable wear imposed by the
silica content of grass. Black rhinos, on the other hand, have lower crowned
molars favoring efficient mastication of leaves and foliage. None of these
animals has the sharp and stabbing canines like those of lions. Distinct
species1 of organisms apply themselves to different ecological tasks using
their appropriate sets of tools. For example, zebras and white rhinoceros
feed on grass, black rhinos browse leaves from shrubs, and lions kill and
eat zebras.
2. Diversity of life: we share this planet with a phenomenal array of different
life forms. These forms range from delicate mosses and annual flowering
plants to awesome whales and fearsome sharks. While many of these forms
differ in subtle ways, most can be readily recognized and categorized as
types or species quite distinct from others. This is possible because the
extant denizens of our planet do not exhibit a continuum of morphological
variation from bacteria to redwood tree. Rather, the morphologies and
characteristics of living organisms cluster like conspicuous and discrete
galaxies in morpho-space.
3. Procession of life: despite the variety and discreteness of life, organisms
seem connected by design rules of increasing levels of complexity. Notions
such as the tree of life identify a regular, yet increasing, sophistication of
organisms in terms of size, behavior, and the number and specialization of
1 A formal definition of species is given in Subsection 8.2.2.
traits. The early idea of a bauplan recognized the fixity of certain design
rules among definable groups of species. Linnaeus in his binomial nomen-
clature used design rules to place organisms in the tree of life. Modern
systematics and taxonomy, now more than ever, rely on the hierarchical
structuring of traits among collections of species to assign names and po-
sition within life’s tree.
4. Distribution and abundance of organisms: this is the central question
of ecology. Paleolithic peoples probably pondered this as the central ques-
tion of survival. Organisms are not spread randomly in space and time.
Furthermore, some organisms seem ubiquitous and excessive in numbers
(various species of crow, for their size, are particularly abundant around
the globe) while others puzzle us with their rarity (the introduced Eurasian
tree sparrow has a toe-hold in the city of St. Louis while its congener, the
European house sparrow, occupies the rest of North America).
These observations must predate recorded history. Yet a satisfactory and
unified answer to why the above four patterns exist has been available for
only about 150 years with the development of Darwin’s theory of evolution
by natural selection. More recently, game theory (the mathematics used to
study conflicts of interest among two or more players) – is being successfully
applied to modeling natural selection. The classical game theory of economics,
sociology, and engineering has existed as a formal discipline since the 1940s
and 1950s, while game theory as a formalism for natural selection has existed
since the 1970s.
The objective of this book is to show that the synthesis of Darwin’s ideas
within the context of an evolutionary game provides a most useful tool for
understanding the four patterns of nature. Because the use of evolutionary game
theory to model natural selection requires a moderate amount of mathematics,
we provide all of the concepts and mathematical tools needed in the chapters
that follow.
In this chapter, we start by discussing Darwin’s marvelous idea of natural
selection, introduce life as an evolutionary game, and explain why we favor a
game theoretic approach as a complement to the more familiar and orthodox
genetical approaches to natural selection.
2 Apparently William Paley was the first to use the analogy. “. . . suppose that I had found a watch
upon the ground . . . this mechanism being observed the inference we think is inevitable, that the
watch must have had a maker . . . or shall it, all at once turn us around to an opposite conclusion,
namely that no art or skill whatever has been concerned in the business. Can this be maintained
without absurdity?” Evidence of evolution reveals a universe without design, hence Dawkins’s
(1986) useful metaphor of the blind watchmaker.
these new findings and ideas. In its more complex forms, scientific creation-
ism stretched biblical days into millennia, and recognized multiple creations
and destructions of life, of which Noah’s Flood was but one particularly
noteworthy example (Schroeder, 1997). But those seeking a “uniformitarian”
explanation for life also had major conceptual and logical hurdles. Yes, ge-
ology and life seemed to share a common fate, but erosion, sedimentation,
and volcanism do not form the characteristics of organisms. Empirically,
life might change its characteristics with time, but what were life’s natural
processes?
Evolution built around heritable change with time was a potentially attrac-
tive force. Most natural philosophers accepted the presence of this force within
animal and plant breeding, and many social philosophies emphasized the con-
nections between human bloodlines and human hierarchies. But, as a force for
change, it was presumed to be rather limited and in most cases useful only for
protecting good blood from bad. Few saw breeding as providing the force or
opportunity for truly novel evolutionary change. Early attempts at linking evo-
lution to FF&F and procession of life still clung to the notion of foreordained
or consciously driven improvement. Some espoused a kind of creationist–
evolutionist blend: a view that saw God creating life at all levels followed by the
evolution of these forms up a chain of being towards humans, angels, and be-
yond. Lamarck advanced a tenable theory of evolution via “self improvement.”
Just as an individual can be conditioned physically for a task, perhaps a species
can condition their heritable characteristics towards needs and particular tasks,
leading to the inheritance of conditioned or acquired traits. Two aspects of this
theory of evolution are interesting. First, Darwin did not see Lamarck as in-
compatible with natural selection and in fact viewed the inheritance of acquired
traits as one of several likely ways for introducing heritable variation. Second,
Lamarckism could have been correct as a scientific perspective. If pangenesis
(the equal contributions of all units of the body to the heritable blueprint for the
organism’s offspring) had been correct, then acquired (or discarded) traits could
manifest as heritable change, and natural selection could work within this con-
text. And indeed, in prokaryotes, and some plants where there are fewer clear
boundaries between the somatic cell line and the gametic cell line, manifesta-
tions of Lamarckian evolution do occur comfortably within the framework of
natural selection. But, the raindrops that eroded and formed Lyellian geology
still eluded evolutionist thinking.
Darwin found the raindrops in deceptively simple ecological processes –
surplus births and subsequent famine. The Struggle for Existence (loosely
associated with Malthus (1796)) recognizes a reality of ecology. Organisms
are capable of having many more offspring than the environment can possibly
support. Darwin’s genius was in making the link between heritable variation
(however it came about!) with the Struggle for Existence in which less satisfac-
tory individuals die. Just as raindrops sculpt landscapes by eroding softer and
harder stones at different rates, the ecological raindrops of births and deaths
striking the softer and harder rocks of heritable characteristics sculpt life. It is
not hard to see how many a natural philosopher would find repugnant the deep
social irony of natural selection as beautifully described in “Darwin’s Danger-
ous Idea,” (Dennett, 1995). This repugnance resonates today in the writings of
intellectuals such as Gould (1998). The “noble” excellence exhibited by FF&F
and procession of life is engineered by the scourges put upon it as manifested
by “poverty” and “famine.”
individuals who are better able to survive and reproduce than less well endowed
individuals.
Darwin used logical verbal arguments to model evolution. His views on
inheritance were both orthodox for the day and flawed. Today, we think of evo-
lution in terms of genetics, which involves the study of inheritance of genes
from one generation to the next. Genetics seems to provide the ultimate tool for
studying evolution, yet it is a curious fact that Darwin presented his theory in
the absence of any understanding of genes as presented by Mendel (1866). It
was not until the 1930s that Fisher (1930), Wright (1931), Haldane (1932),
Dobzhansky (1937), and others combined evolution and genetics into what is
known as the Modern Synthesis (Mayer and Provine, 1980). Genetics has pro-
vided a framework for understanding evolution, yet it need not be the essential
core for modeling or understanding evolution by natural selection. Darwin’s
postulates do not require any specific mechanism of inheritance. This obser-
vation is in accordance with the development presented in this book. Since
Darwin’s three postulates constitute a fundamental principle that can be used
to explain and predict evolution, we use these principles in developing a non-
genetical mathematical framework for natural selection. The framework is not
non-genetical in the sense of not having some mechanism for inheritance, and
an understanding of the recipe of inheritance, as in the case of modern genetics,
is paramount to Darwin’s first postulate (as well as to bioengineering, medical
genetics, animal and plant breeding programs, taxonomy, DNA fingerprinting,
etc.). The framework is non-genetical in the sense that an actual genetic system
for allowing natural selection is an auxiliary hypothesis. In the same manner
natural selection is merely an auxiliary hypothesis (among several evolutionary
forces) for changes to a genetic system. We propose that evolution by natu-
ral selection is a dynamic game. Our objective is to develop an evolutionary
game theory that can be used as a fundamental modeling tool for understanding
natural selection.
natural selection. Fisher (1930), Wright (1931), Haldane (1932), and others ush-
ered in a golden age of population genetics by placing the study of evolution on
a firm mathematical foundation. In creating this foundation, they showed the
compatibility of Mendelian genes, loci, and alleles with natural selection, the
evolution of quantitative traits, and systematics. In addition, the recipe of inheri-
tance provided insights into other forces of evolution (mutation and genetic drift)
and into interactions that might occur genetically within and between organisms.
Genetic interactions within an organism could be epistatic (many genes at dif-
ferent loci may contribute non-additively to a particular trait) and pleiotropic (a
single gene may contribute to the phenotype of several traits). Among individu-
als, natural selection could be density dependent and/or frequency dependent
depending on whether the population’s size and/or gene frequencies influence
the success of individuals with particular phenotypes, respectively.
The Modern Synthesis led to the primacy of genes over heritable phenotypes
as the objects of evolution. This primacy seems self evident. In the Modern
Synthesis, evolution is defined as a change in gene frequency. However, nat-
ural selection in terms of FF&F must involve the ecological consequences of
heritable phenotypes. Can a strictly genetical approach be sufficient for model-
ing natural selection? Models of gene-frequency dynamics determine what has
been selected but cannot necessarily determine what survival or fecundity apti-
tudes of the organism have been selected for. The FF&F requires understanding
both what has been selected and why. The “why” requires a focus on heritable
phenotypes, particularly when natural selection is frequency dependent. So,
while the Modern Synthesis provided a huge advance in our understanding of
evolution, taxonomy, and gene dynamics, it may have unwittingly hampered a
fuller appreciation of natural selection by subordinating heritable phenotypes
to their genetic recipes.
that sculpt and refine species towards an FF&F. This aspect of Darwin’s pers-
pective on natural selection represents an adaptationist research program
which studies the advantages that particular characters might confer on the
individual. Fields such as physiological ecology, functional morphology, and
behavioral ecology (particularly in the guise of foraging theory and socio-
biology) produce more or less plausible hypotheses for the adaptation of an
organism’s heritable traits.
The adaptationist approach to natural selection is appealing in that it seems
to contain the spirit of Darwin’s original idea. However, it is built on a poor
foundation. As scathingly noted in “The Spandrels of San Marco” (Gould and
Lewontin, 1979), the intuitively appealing explanations for the value of traits
to an organism rested on non-rigorous and often indefensible notions of what
is valuable to an organism and what is heritably feasible. The adaptationist
paradigm in the 1970s lacked formal fitness functions, formal statements of what
was feasibly heritable, and formal evolutionary dynamics. Here’s the dilemma.
Genetical approaches have been successful at modeling what is selected but
lack insights into why a character has been selected. Adaptationist approaches
have been successful at proposing why a character has been selected for, but
often lack a modeling framework.
Here we take another look at the adaptationist approach as embodying the
spirit of Darwin’s theory of natural selection. While we applaud the formalism
and rigor of population genetic and quantitative genetic approaches to evolution,
we regard life as a game, and that a game theoretic approach provides the right
tools and a sufficient level of rigor for an adaptationist approach to evolution
by natural selection. In this book, we present life as a game and develop the
formalism necessary to model evolution by natural selection as a game. To make
the transition from a strictly genetical perspective to a game theoretic one, we
view evolution as a change in heritable phenotypes rather than as a change in
gene frequency. From this viewpoint, we recover the sense of natural selection
as an optimization process leading to adaptations, and support the engineer’s
perspective that organisms are designed for a function.
rocks and prevent them from being swept away by crashing waves. At low
tide they clam up tight to prevent desiccation and at high tide they open up
to filter food particles from the swirling water. These physiological, morpho-
logical, and behavioral traits seem sensible in the organisms’ ecology. They
meet challenges and exploit opportunities. These traits must be heritable, and
natural selection has produced this FF&F. The kangaroo rat’s kidney and the
mussel’s threads represent evolutionary design features that allow these animals
to survive in a seemingly optimal way under the circumstances. Explanations
for these adaptations fall squarely within Darwin’s theory.
For some species of frogs, choruses of males sing at ponds and waterways
in order to attract females. In Costa Rica, for instance, the calls also attract the
attention of frog-eating bats (Tuttle and Ryan, 1981). The males, as in many
species of the animal world, are literally dying for love. A chorusing male
calls for a mate, but may call in its predator. Yet it still choruses. Why? And,
more fundamentally, is this adaptation consistent with FF&F? Such chorusing
is not the only way for females to find mates. There are other frog species that
achieve match-making more quietly. There are costs and benefits to chorusing,
such calling seems to make it easier for females to find mates, allows males
to advertise their presence, reduces male survivorship, and feeds bats. A col-
lective reduction in calling volume by the males would probably hamper bats’
effectiveness as predators with negligible effect on females’ access to mates.
This apparent paradox in behavior is resolved when mating is viewed as a game
played with many other frogs. The male frog’s best chorusing strategy depends
upon the strategy choice of females and the calling strategy of other males. In
the frog’s mating game, chorusing functions primarily to attract mates away
from other males. An economist would quickly see this mating system as an
advertising game, where advertising expenditures serve primarily to divert
customers from one’s competitors rather than to increase the overall pool of
customers.
Given the strategies used by the females and other males, the male’s chorus
strategy is optimal in the sense of maximizing his reproductive success that
depends on the product of survivorship and mating success. Suppose that mating
success increases and survivorship declines with the volume of an individual’s
chorusing; and that the reverse happens in response to the chorusing volume of
other males. If most males chorus quietly, it behooves a male to call louder –
it gains more from mating success than it loses in survivorship. If most males
are exceptionally loud, it may behoove the male to call more quietly – it gains
more from survivorship than it loses from fewer mating opportunities. Between
these advertising extremes, a best strategy exists where the male calls at the same
volume level as all of the other males. The whole business of calling loudly
may seem maladaptive but, given the circumstances, the calling behavior of the
individual male frog maximizes his reproductive success.
There are similarities in other situations that, at first glance, seem radically
different from the perspective of the organisms’ natural histories. For instance,
what does the evolution of height in trees have to do with chorusing in male
frogs? They are fundamentally the same evolutionary game! Woody plants in-
vest resources (photosynthate) into non-productive wood that presumably could
have been used for reproduction or the production of seemingly more useful
structures such as leaves and roots. The trunks of trees precipitate all sorts
of additional challenges for the plant: susceptibility to tipping over in high
winds, greater surface area for the invasion of pathogens and herbivores, hy-
drostatic problems associated with nutrient exchange between roots and leaves,
and weight and balance issues associated with supporting tall, narrow struc-
tures. Trees behave as trees for the sake of sunlight. Since the pool of available
sunlight is fixed, a tree grows to escape the shade of other trees. At the op-
timum height, being taller than the others around you incurs greater costs in
height than benefits in light. Being shorter than others incurs greater losses in
light than benefits in less height. Tree trunks function primarily to gather light
away from other plants. In the presence of canopy trees, all striving to be shade
free, there exist opportunities for a diversity of light-gathering strategies. Light
gaps provide opportunities for fast-growing, light-loving shrubs and herbs. The
seasonality in temperate zones provides spring windows of light for early flower-
ing herbs that grow and flower before the canopy trees have had time to leaf
out. The flecks of light that pass through the sieve of canopy leaves provide
opportunities for shade-tolerant plant species. The game of light competition
may not only select for tree trunks (FF&F), but also select for a co-existing
diversity of strategies (diversity of life).
Two important properties are essential elements of any game. First, each
player’s success depends not only on its own strategy but on the strategies
of the other players. Second, the players’ objectives are generally at cross
purposes; that is, the combination of strategies among players that is preferable
to one player need not be the arrangement most preferable to any of the other
players.
Nature abounds with games. The frogs and trees engage in different forms
of the tragedy of the commons (Hardin, 1968) in which gains to individuals
at the expense of the group encourage organisms (and humans) invariably to
overuse their common pool of resources. Pursuit-evasion games occur within
most, if not all, predator–prey systems. Arms races occur in the competition
for mates, food, space, and safety. Games of chicken occur in many example of
4 Among Fisher’s contributions to genetics and statistics is his measure of indeterminacy, now
called Fisher information. This concept now plays an important role in theoretical physics
(Frieden, 1998).
fitness set (Levins, 1968). The active edge has similar properties to the Pareto-
optimal solution from game theory. A Pareto-optimal solution has the property
that it is not possible to change strategies among individuals so as to maintain
or increase everyone’s payoff (Vincent and Grantham, 1981). Levins then fixes
the environmental context with respect to the scale (fine- versus coarse-grained
for small vs. large patches of habitat, respectively) and frequency of the two
habitats. One can then solve for an evolutionarily stable strategy by pitting the
active edge of the fitness set against the environmental circumstances. This
produces an optimum that may favor either a single generalist strategy or two
specialist strategies. These strategies produce the highest per capita growth rate
(fitness) given the circumstances.
Ever since Darwin, natural selection has been viewed as an optimizing pro-
cess. One that promotes heritable phenotypes (strategies) that are optimal in
the sense of being the best (maximizing fitness) given the circumstances. How-
ever, when the circumstances include the strategies used by others, evolution
can no longer be viewed in terms of a simple optimization process, rather
it is a game. As a game, natural selection combines evolutionary principles
of inheritance with ecological principles of population interactions to pro-
duce what Hutchinson (1965) called the ecological theater and evolutionary
play.
seem to be the worst given the circumstances (Brown and Pavlovic, 1992; Cohen
et al., 1999).
appealing parts of the two contexts within which adaptation is commonly used.
The ESS is the endpoint of evolution by natural selection. Furthermore, as a
“no-regret” strategy, an individual’s strategy serves it better than any alternative
strategy. In this sense, adaptations resulting from natural selection are optimal
given the circumstances, and represent the FF&F (Mitchell and Valone, 1990).
We use the term adaptive dynamics (Metz et al., 1996) to describe the
change in the frequency of strategies within the population and the term strat-
egy dynamics to describe how a strategy associated with a particular species
changes with time. Because the term adaptive dynamics has more than one re-
lated meaning in the literature,5 we use it only in the restricted sense above. The
strategy dynamics equations are an important part of evolution by natural selec-
tion that drives a population to an ESS, to other solutions, or to non-equilibrium
evolutionary dynamics. Because of strategy dynamics, Fisher’s Fundamental
Theorem of Natural Selection also applies to evolutionary games.
Co-adaptation in genetics describes reciprocal evolutionary responses of
genes at different loci to each other’s effect on the individual’s fitness. Via co-
adaptation, the gene favored by natural selection at one locus may be influenced
by the genes at other loci. In the context of adaptation, this makes sense when
one considers how different traits interact to determine an organism’s success.
For instance, one often sees co-adaptation between behaviors and morpholo-
gies. Organisms with specialist morphologies often feed selectively, while those
with generalist morphologies feed opportunistically. By allowing strategies to
be a vector of traits, evolutionary game theory can model co-adaptations. In
this case, the ESS for one trait is influenced by the values of other traits within
the organism. For instance, in desert annuals seed-dispersal mechanisms, seed
dormancy, and xeric (dry) adapted leaves can all assist the plant in bet-hedging
against droughts and bad years. Hence, a plant with highly xeric leaves re-
quires less seed dormancy than one with mesic (wet) leaves. Or a plant with
seed-dispersal traits such as hooks for animal dispersal or awns for wind dis-
persal requires less seed dormancy or less xeric leaves. At the ESS we expect
these traits to become co-adapted, and evolutionary game theory provides the
modeling tools needed for such co-adaptations.
biological problems with little structure to a more complex theory that is ap-
plicable to biological problems with lots of structure. Fortunately, the route to
complexity is based on an underlying principle that does not change as we add
layers of complexity. As a consequence, one can understand the basic ideas by
focusing on the easy problem first and leaving the more complicated (and more
interesting) problems for later. We structure this book accordingly.
The bulk of the mathematical development occurs in Chapters 2, 4, 5, 6, and
7. Chapter 2 provides an introduction to population modeling, population dy-
namics, equilibrium points, and the stability of these points. Chapter 3 provides
an introduction to classical and evolutionary game theory. Life is viewed as a
game and the stage is set for game theory to provide the tools for modeling the
ecological and evolutionary dynamics associated with natural selection, with
the introduction of the fitness generating function (G-function) concept. In-
dividuals are said to be of the same G-function if they possess the same set of
evolutionarily feasible strategies and experience the same fitness consequences
of possessing a given strategy within a given environment. There is a close
connection between a G-function and the German term bauplan, which is an
old descriptor for classifying organisms by what appear to be common design
features or design rules. The G-function may be thought of as describing both
an organism’s bauplan and the environmental conditions that the organisms
must deal with.
Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7 are structured in parallel to address the concepts
needed to model and analyze evolutionary games. In Chapter 4 we present a
recipe for making an evolutionary game, starting with a model of population
ecology and showing how to construct a G-function from it. The G-function
is used in the development of both the ecological and evolutionary dynamics
(Chapter 5). We refer to the combination of population dynamics (ecological
changes in the population sizes) and strategy dynamics (evolutionary changes
in a species’ strategy value) as Darwinian dynamics. The Darwinian dynamics
may converge on population and strategy values that are both convergent stable
and which cannot be invaded by rare alternative strategies. The strategy values
obtained in this way are evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS). Chapter 6
expands on the ESS concept of Maynard Smith to provide a formal definition
of an ESS. An ESS must be convergent stable and optimal in the sense of
maximizing an individual’s fitness given the circumstances and strategies of
others. The ESS maximum principle of Chapter 7 provides necessary conditions
For determining an ESS. In terms of the G-function the ESS is an evolutionary
optimum that represents the FF&F. Our approach in each of Chapters 4–7 is to
present the theory in terms of the simplest problem first before moving to the
more complex problems.
6 The original German spelling for the plural of bauplan is Bauplaene. Since we are using this
term in a modern and somewhat different context, we choose to use the English plural.