Ujian Pra-Pentaksiran STPM Penggal 3

(Pep.Percubaan penggal 3) , 2014

Johor SULTANibrahim MathsT P3 2014 QA SMK SULTAN IBRAHIM KULAIJAYA
Section A [45 marks]
Answer all questions in this section

1. The table below shows the commissions received by a salesman from 30 sales
transactions.
Commission (RM) 0 - 99 100 -199 200-299 300-399 400-499 500-599
Frequency 4 5 8 6 4 3

Calculate the mean and median. [4 marks]

Hence, calculate the Pearson coefficient of skewness and comment on your answer.
( Use standard deviation = 149.07 ) [3 marks]

2. A bag contains 5 golf balls and 3 other balls, whereas a box contains 4 golf balls and 2
other balls. A die is thrown and if a number less than 5 results a ball is drawn from the
bag, otherwise a ball is drawn from the box. Find the probability that
[3 marks]
(a) a ball drawn is a golf ball.
(b) if the ball drawn is a golf ball, it came from a box. [2 marks]

3. A discrete random variable X which takes the values of 1, 4, 9, 16, and 25 has
cumulative distribution function
0 , x 1
1
f ( x )   n , n 2  x  n  1 , where n  1, 2 , 3 and 4.
2

5
1 , x  25
(a) Tabulate the probability distribution of X. [2 marks]
 
(b) Calculate E X and Var X .   [5 marks]

(c) Find P 4X  6 E( X )  9  [3 marks]

4. Out of random sample of 1000 students interviewed, 410 dislike the subject ‘History’.

(a) Calculate an approximate 99% confidence interval for the population who dislike [3 marks]
the subject ‘History’
(b) Estimate the size of a sample that would have provided a 96% confidence interval
of width 0.04 for p. [3 marks]
(c) If 1200 students are surveyed and based on the 99% confidence interval for (a), [1 mark]
state the expected number of students that dislike the subject ‘History’.

5. It is known that the tail lengths of a certain species of squirrel have mean14.0 cm and
standard deviation 3.8 cm. A zoologist takes a random sample of 20 squirrels from the
same species on an island and measure their tail lengths. She carrys out a test, at the 5%
significance level, of whether squirrels on the island have the same mean tail.

(a) State appropriate hypothesis for the test. [1 mark]

(b) Determine the range of x , where x is the sample mean tail length, which the null
hypothesis would not be rejected. [3 marks]
(c) State the conclusion of the test in the case where x =15.8 [2 marks]

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 Ujian Pra-Pentaksiran STPM Penggal 3
(Pep.Percubaan penggal 3) , 2014

6. Six hens are observed over a period of 20 days and the number of eggs laid each day is
summarised in the following table.

Number of eggs 3 4 5 6
Number of days 2 2 10 6

It may be assumed that a hen never lays more than one egg in any day. State one other
assumption that needs to be made in order to consider a binomial model, with n = 6 , [1 mark]
for the total number of eggs laid in a day.

Carry out a chi-squared goodness-of -fit test, using a 10% significance level to test the
5
hypothesis that the above data fit a binomial model with parameter n = 6 and p  . [9 marks]
6

Section B [15 marks]

Answer any one question in this section.
7(a) In the production of microchips, it is known that 3 out of every 20 units are
defective. From a consignment of 500 microchips, use a suitable approximation to
find the value of n such that the probability of more than n units are defective is less
than 0.33. [4 marks]

(b) The continuous random variable X has probability density functions given by
 k
 , x0
f ( x )   ( x  1) 4

0 , otherwise
Where k is a constant. [2 marks]
(i) Find the value of k.
(ii) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x). Hence, find the value of x such
1 [5 marks]
that P(X  x )  .
8
1 [4 marks]
(iii) Find E( X + 1), and deduce that E(X) = .
2

8(a) The random variable X has a Poisson distribution with mean 4. The random variable
X is the sample mean of 100 random sample of X. By using a suitable
[4 marks]
approximation, find P( X  3.5)
(b) In a large population of chickens, the distribution of the mass of a chicken has mean
 kg and standard deviation  kg. A random sample of 100 chickens is taken from
the population and the sample values are summarized by  x  189.1 and
x 2
 401.74 where x kg is the mass of a chicken.

(i) Find unbiased estimates of  and  2 . [4 marks]

(ii) Determine the 90% symmetric confidence interval for  . [3 marks]
(iii) Given that, in fact ,   0.71, test, at 1% level of significance, the null
hypothesis   1.75 against the alternative hypothesis   1.75 . [4 marks]

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 Ujian Pra-Pentaksiran STPM Penggal 3
(Pep.Percubaan penggal 3) , 2014

SMK SULTAN IBRAHIM KULAIJAYA

SKEMA PERMARKAHAN
MATHEMATICS T
UJIAN PRA-PENTAKSIRAN PENGGAL 3,
OKTOBER, TAHUN 2014
Section A ( 45 marks )
8485 M1A1
1. Mean   282.83
30
 15  9  M1
Median  199.5   100
 8 
= 274.5 A1
3(mean  median )
Pearson coefficient of skewness =
s tan dard deviation
3(282.83  274.5) M1
=
149.07
= 0.1676 A1
The distribution is skewed to the right. B1 ( Total 7 )

4 2
2. A= event of the number of die is less than 5, p(A)  
6 3
(a ) P(G )  P(A  G )  P(A'G )
 2 5 1 4
 x  x  M1 (any 1 correct )
 3 8 3 6 M1 ( add 2 prob)

23 A1
= / 0.6389
36
P(A'G )
(b) P(A’/G) =
P (G )
2
= 9
23 M1
36
8 A1
= / 0.3478 ( Total 7 )
23
3.(a) B1( all x and
x 1 4 9 16 25 P(X=x)correct )
P(X=x) 1 1 1 1 1
B1 (all correct in
5 5 5 5 5 table form)
1 1 1 1 1 M1
(b) E( X )  1( ) + 2( ) + 3( ) + 4( ) + 5 ( )
5 5 5 5 5
=3 A1
1 1 1 1 1
(b) E(X) = 1( ) + 4( ) + 9( ) + 16( ) + 25 ( )
5 5 5 5 5
= 11 B1
M1
Var ( X )  11  32 A1
=2
 
(c) P 4X  6E( X )  9  P(4X-18>9) + P(4X-18<-9)

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 Ujian Pra-Pentaksiran STPM Penggal 3
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27 9 M1
= P( X  )  P( X  )
4 4
M1
1 1 1 1
= + + +
5 5 5 5 A1 ( Total 10 )
4
=
5
40 M1
4. Ps   0.41
1000
psqs 0.41x 0.59 M1
(a) Ps  Z   0.41  2.576
2
n 1000
= 0.41  0.04006
= ( 0.36994, 0.45006)
99% confidence interval for the population proportion is ( 0.3699, 0.4501) A1
(b) width = 0.04, estimation error = 0.02
Z 0.02  2.054 B1

0.41x 0.59 M1
2.054  0.02
n
n = 2551.39
sample size, n = 2551. A1

(c) n = 1200 x 0.41 = 492 B1 ( Total 7 )

H 0 :   14.0 cm
5 . B1
H1 :   14.0 cm
 3.8 2 
(b) x ~ N14, 
 20 
For H 0 not to be rejected at 5%,
x 
Z 2.5%   Z 97.5%

n M1 ( for 1.96)

x  14
 1.96   1.96 x  14
3.8 M1 ( for )
3 .8
20
20
12.33 < x < 15.67 A1
(c) x =15.8 does not lie in the range of 12.33 < x < 15.67 , B1
 H 0 is rejected.
There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the squirrels on the island do not B1 ( Total 6 )
have the same mean tail.
6. Assume that the probability of any hen laying an egg on any day is constant and B1
that hens lay eggs independently of each other.

H 0 : The data fit a binomial model

B1
H1 : The data does not fit a binomial mod el
Significance level : 10 %
 5
X ~ B 6, 
 6
x 6 x
5 1
P( X  x )  C x    
6
x = 0 ,1, 2, … 6
6 6
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 Ujian Pra-Pentaksiran STPM Penggal 3
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M1 ( at least 3 prob.
Number of eggs Oi P(X=x) E i  20p (O  E ) 2 correct )
M1( E i for 4,5,6
E
correct)
2 0 0.0087 0.1740
3 2 0.05358 1.0716 0.3037 A1 ( E all correct )
M1 (combine E<5)
4 2 0.20094 4.0188
M1 ( method of
5 10 0.40188 8.0376 0.4791
6 6 0.33490 6.6980 0.0727 getting  2 )
Total 20 1.00 20  2  0.8555 A1( 0.85<  2 <0.86)

V = 3-1 = 2 , critical value = 4.605 M1

Conclusion :  2  0.8555 < 4.605, do not reject H 0 , conclude that the data fit a
A1 ( Total 10 )
binomial model at 10% significance level.
Section B ( 15 marks)
 3 
7 (a) X ~ B 500, 
 20 
 3
np  500   75  5  normal approximation is used.
 20 
B1
X ~ N(75, 63.75)
P(X > n ) < 0.33
n  0.5  75
 P( Z  )  0.33 M1 ( standardize )
63.75
n  74.5
 0.44 M1 ( > 0.44)
63.75
n > 78.01
n = 79 A1

k
7. (b) (i)  (x  1)
0
4
dx  1


 1 
k  3
1 M1
 3( x  1)  0
k A1
1 k  3
3
x
k
x
 1  1
(ii) x  0 , F( x )   dx  3 3
 1 M1
0 ( x  1)  3( x  1)  0 ( x  1) 3
4

0 , x0

F( x )  1  1
, x0 A1

 ( x  1)
3

7 7 1 7
P( X  x )   F( x )  , 1   M1
8 8 ( x  1) 3
8
1 1
 3
( x  1) 3
2
x + 1 = 2, x = 1. A1

k
E(X  1)   ( x  1) dx M1
0 ( x  1) 4
(iii) 
k
 dx
0 ( x  1) 3

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
 1 
= k  2 
 2( x  1)  0
k 3
E(X+1) =  A1
2 2
3
 E( X)  1  M1
2
1
E(X) = ( shown ) A1
2
8 (a) X ~ P0 4
By central limit theorem , for n  30
 2   42   1 
X ~ N ,  , X ~ N 4,  , X ~ N 4,  M1
 n   100   25 
 
 
 3.5  4 
P(X  3.5)  P ( Z  M1
 1 
 
 25 
= P ( Z < -2.5)
A1
= 0.000621
189.1 M1A1
(b) (i) Unbiased estimates of    1.891
100
1   x 2 
Unbiased estimates of  
2

n 1
x  n 
2

 
1  (189.1) 2 
=  401 .74   M1
99  100 
= 0.4460 A1
 0.4460 M1, M1
(ii) X  Z   1.891  1.645
2 n 100
= 1.891  0.1099
= ( 1.7811, 2.0009 )
90% symmetric confidence interval for  is ( 1.7811, 2.0009 ) A1

H 0 :   1.75
(iii) .
H1 :   1.75
Significance level : 1 %
Critical value : reject H 0 if z > 2.326
x   1.891  1.75
Test statistic : Z   M1
 0.71
n 100
A1
= 1.986
M1
Conclusion : z = 1.986 < 2.326
Insufficient evidence to reject H 0 and conclude that the
  1.75 at 1 % level of significance. A1

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