Financial Markets: From Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia
Financial Markets: From Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia
Financial Markets: From Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia
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Market history[edit]
Beginnings[edit]
In 1970, the US government-backed mortgage guarantor Ginnie Mae created the first MBS
(mortgage-backed security), based on FHA and VA mortgages. It guaranteed these MBSs.[14] This
would be the precursor to CDOs that would be created two decades later. In 1971, Freddie
Mac issued its first Mortgage Participation Certificate . This was the first mortgage-backed
security made of ordinary mortgages.[15] All through the 1970s, private companies began mortgage
asset securitization by creating private mortgage pools. [16]
In 1974, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act in the United States imposed heavy sanctions for financial
institutions found guilty of discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex,
marital status, or age[17] This led to a more open policy of giving loans (sometimes subprime) by
banks, guaranteed in most cases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In 1977, the Community
Reinvestment Act was enacted to address historical discrimination in lending, such as 'redlining'.
The Act encouraged commercial banks and savings associations (Savings and loan banks) to meet
the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income
neighborhoods (who might earlier have been thought of as too risky for home loans). [18][19]
In 1977, the investment bank Salomon Brothers created a "private label" MBS (mortgage backed
security)—one that did not involve government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgages. However, it
failed in the marketplace.[20] Subsequently, Lewis Ranieri (Salomon) and Larry Fink (First Boston)
invented the idea of securitization; different mortgages were pooled together and this pool was then
sliced into tranches, each of which was then sold separately to different investors. [21] Many of these
tranches were in turn bundled together, earning them the name CDO (Collateralized debt obligation).
[22]
The first CDOs to be issued by a private bank were seen in 1987 by the bankers at the now-
defunct Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. for the also now-defunct Imperial Savings Association.
[23]
During the 1990s the collateral of CDOs was generally corporate and emerging market bonds and
bank loans.[24] After 1998 "multi-sector" CDOs were developed by Prudential Securities, [25] but CDOs
remained fairly obscure until after 2000.[26] In 2002 and 2003 CDOs had a setback when rating
agencies "were forced to downgrade hundreds" of the securities, [27] but sales of CDOs grew—from
$69 billion in 2000 to around $500 billion in 2006. [28] From 2004 through 2007, $1.4 trillion worth of
CDOs were issued.[29]
Early CDOs were diversified, and might include everything from aircraft lease-equipment debt,
manufactured housing loans, to student loans and credit card debt. The diversification of borrowers
in these "multisector CDOs" was a selling point, as it meant that if there was a downturn in one
industry like aircraft manufacturing and their loans defaulted, other industries like manufactured
housing might be unaffected.[30] Another selling point was that CDOs offered returns that were
sometimes 2-3 percentage points higher than corporate bonds with the same credit rating. [30][31]
Explanations for growth[edit]
Growing demand for fixed income investments that started earlier in the decade
continued.[32][33] A "global savings glut"[56] leading to "large capital inflows" from abroad
helped finance the housing boom, keeping down US mortgage rates, even after
the Federal Reserve Bank had raised interest rates to cool off the economy.[57]
Supply generated by "hefty" fees the CDO industry earned. According to "one hedge
fund manager who became a big investor in CDOs", as much "as 40 to 50 percent" of
the cash flow generated by the assets in a CDO went to "pay the bankers, the CDO
manager, the rating agencies, and others who took out fees." [27] Rating agencies in
particular—whose high ratings of the CDO tranches were crucial to the industry and who
were paid by CDO issuers —earned extraordinary profits. Moody's Investors Service,
one of the two biggest rating agencies, could earn "as much as $250,000 to rate a
mortgage pool with $350 million in assets, versus the $50,000 in fees generated when
rating a municipal bond of a similar size." In 2006, revenues from Moody's structured
finance division "accounted for fully 44%" of all Moody's sales.[58][59] Moody's operating
margins were "consistently over 50%, making it one of the most profitable companies in
existence"—more profitable in terms of margins than Exxon Mobil or Microsoft.
[60]
Between the time Moody's was spun off as a public company and February 2007, its
stock rose 340%.[60][61]
Trust in rating agencies. CDO managers "didn't always have to disclose what the
securities contained" because the contents of the CDO were subject to change. But this
lack of transparency did not affect demand for the securities. Investors "weren't so much
buying a security. They were buying a triple-A rating," according to business
journalists Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera.[27]
Financial innovations, such as credit default swaps and synthetic CDO. Credit default
swaps provided insurance to investors against the possibility of losses in the value of
tranches from default in exchange for premium-like payments, making CDOs appear "to
be virtually risk-free" to investors.[62] Synthetic CDOs were cheaper and easier to create
than original "cash" CDOs. Synthetics "referenced" cash CDOs, replacing interest
payments from MBS tranches with premium-like payments from credit default swaps.
Rather than providing funding for housing, synthetic CDO-buying investors were in effect
providing insurance against mortgage default. [63] If the CDO did not perform per
contractual requirements, one counterparty (typically a large investment bank or hedge
fund) had to pay another.[64] As underwriting standards deteriorated and the housing
market became saturated, subprime mortgages became less abundant. Synthetic CDOs
began to fill in for the original cash CDOs. Because more than one—in fact numerous—
synthetics could be made to reference the same original, the amount of money that
moved among market participants increased dramatically.
Crash[edit]
More than half of the highest-rated (Aaa) CDOs were "impaired" (losing principal or downgraded to junk status),
compared to a small fraction of similarly rated Subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed securities. (source:
Financial Crisis Inquiry Report[65])
In the summer of 2006, the Case–Shiller index of house prices peaked.[66] In California, home prices
had more than doubled since 2000[67] and median house prices in Los Angeles had risen to ten times
the median annual income. To entice those with low and moderate income to sign up for
mortgages, down payments and income documentation were often dispensed with and interest and
principal payments were often deferred upon request.[68] Journalist Michael Lewis gave as an
example of unsustainable underwriting practices a loan in Bakersfield, California, where "a Mexican
strawberry picker with an income of $14,000 and no English was lent every penny he needed to buy
a house of $724,000".[68] As two-year "teaser" mortgage rates—common with those that made home
purchases like this possible—expired, mortgage payments skyrocketed. Refinancing to lower
mortgage payment was no longer available since it depended on rising home prices. [69] Mezzanine
tranches started to lose value in 2007; by mid year AA tranches were worth only 70 cents on the
dollar. By October triple-A tranches had started to fall. [70] Regional diversification notwithstanding, the
mortgage backed securities turned out to be highly correlated. [24]
Big CDO arrangers like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS experienced some of the biggest losses, as
did financial guaranteers such as AIG, Ambac, MBIA.[24]
An early indicator of the crisis came in July 2007 when rating agencies made unprecedented mass
downgrades of mortgage-related securities [71] (by the end of 2008 91% of CDO securities were
downgraded[72]), and two highly leveraged Bear Stearns hedge funds holding MBSs and CDOs
collapsed. Investors were informed by Bear Stearns that they would get little if any of their money
back.[73][74]
In October and November the CEOs of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup resigned after reporting
multibillion-dollar losses and CDO downgrades.[75][76][77] As the global market for CDOs dried up[78][79] the
new issue pipeline for CDOs slowed significantly, [80] and what CDO issuance there was usually in the
form of collateralized loan obligations backed by middle-market or leveraged bank loans, rather than
home mortgage ABS.[81] The CDO collapse hurt mortgage credit available to homeowners since the
bigger MBS market depended on CDO purchases of mezzanine tranches. [82][83]
While non-prime mortgage defaults affected all securities backed by mortgages, CDOs were
especially hard hit. More than half—$300 billion worth—of tranches issued in 2005, 2006, and 2007
rated most safe (triple-A) by rating agencies, were either downgraded to junk status or lost principal
by 2009.[65] In comparison, only small fractions of triple-A tranches of Alt-A or subprime mortgage-
backed securities suffered the same fate. (See the Impaired Securities chart.)
Collateralized debt obligations also made up over half ($542 billion) of the nearly trillion dollars in
losses suffered by financial institutions from 2007 to early 2009. [46]
Criticism[edit]
Prior to the crisis, a few academics, analysts and investors such as Warren Buffett (who famously
disparaged CDOs and other derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers
that, while now latent, are potentially lethal" [84]), and the IMF's former chief economist Raghuram
Rajan[85] warned that rather than reducing risk through diversification, CDOs and other derivatives
spread risk and uncertainty about the value of the underlying assets more widely. [citation needed]
During and after the crisis, criticism of the CDO market was more vocal. According to the radio
documentary "Giant Pool of Money", it was the strong demand for MBS and CDO that drove down
home lending standards. Mortgages were needed for collateral and by approximately 2003, the
supply of mortgages originated at traditional lending standards had been exhausted. [33]
The head of banking supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve, Patrick Parkinson, termed
"the whole concept of ABS CDOs", an "abomination". [24]
In December 2007, journalists Carrick Mollenkamp and Serena Ng wrote of a CDO called Norma
created by Merrill Lynch at the behest of Illinois hedge fund, Magnetar. It was a tailor-made bet on
subprime mortgages that went "too far." Janet Tavakoli, a Chicago consultant who specializes in
CDOs, said Norma "is a tangled hairball of risk." When it came to market in March 2007, "any savvy
investor would have thrown this...in the trash bin."[86][87]
According to journalists Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera, no securities became "more pervasive –
or [did] more damage than collateralized debt obligations" to create the Great Recession.[26]
Gretchen Morgenson described the securities as "a sort of secret refuse heap for toxic mortgages
[that] created even more demand for bad loans from wanton lenders."
CDOs prolonged the mania, vastly amplifying the losses that investors would suffer and ballooning
the amounts of taxpayer money that would be required to rescue companies like Citigroup and the
American International Group." ...[88]
In the first quarter of 2008 alone, credit rating agencies announced 4,485 downgrades of CDOs.[81] At
least some analysts complained the agencies over-relied on computer models with imprecise inputs,
failed to account adequately for large risks (like a nationwide collapse of housing values), and
assumed the risk of the low rated tranches that made up CDOs would be diluted when in fact the
mortgage risks were highly correlated, and when one mortgage defaulted, many did, affected by the
same financial events.[46][89]
They were strongly criticized by economist Joseph Stiglitz, among others. Stiglitz considered the
agencies "one of the key culprits" of the crisis that "performed that alchemy that converted the
securities from F-rated to A-rated. The banks could not have done what they did without the
complicity of the ratings agencies." [90][91] According to Morgenson, the agencies had pretended to
transform "dross into gold."[58]
"As usual, the ratings agencies were chronically behind on developments in the financial markets
and they could barely keep up with the new instruments springing from the brains of Wall Street's
rocket scientists. Fitch, Moody's, and S&P paid their analysts far less than the big brokerage firms
did and, not surprisingly wound up employing people who were often looking to befriend,
accommodate, and impress the Wall Street clients in hopes of getting hired by them for a multiple
increase in pay. ... Their [the rating agencies] failure to recognize that mortgage underwriting
standards had decayed or to account for the possibility that real estate prices could decline
completely undermined the ratings agencies' models and undercut their ability to estimate losses
that these securities might generate." [92]
Michael Lewis also pronounced the transformation of BBB tranches into 80% triple A CDOs as
"dishonest", "artificial" and the result of "fat fees" paid to rating agencies by Goldman Sachs and
other Wall Street firms.[93] However, if the collateral had been sufficient, those ratings would have
been correct, according to the FDIC.
Synthetic CDOs were criticized in particular, because of the difficulties to judge (and price) the risk
inherent in that kind of securities correctly. That adverse effect roots in the pooling and tranching
activities on every level of the derivation. [6]
Others pointed out the risk of undoing the connection between borrowers and lenders—removing the
lender's incentive to only pick borrowers who were creditworthy—inherent in all securitization. [94][95]
[96]
According to economist Mark Zandi: "As shaky mortgages were combined, diluting any problems
into a larger pool, the incentive for responsibility was undermined."[35]
Zandi and others also criticized lack of regulation. "Finance companies weren't subject to the same
regulatory oversight as banks. Taxpayers weren't on the hook if they went belly up [pre-crisis], only
their shareholders and other creditors were. Finance companies thus had little to discourage them
from growing as aggressively as possible, even if that meant lowering or winking at traditional
lending standards."[35]
Concept[edit]
CDOs vary in structure and underlying assets, but the basic principle is the same. A CDO is a type
of asset-backed security. To create a CDO, a corporate entity is constructed to hold assets
as collateral backing packages of cash flows which are sold to investors.[97] A sequence in
constructing a CDO is:
Cash flow CDOs pay interest and principal to tranche holders using the cash flows
produced by the CDO's assets. Cash flow CDOs focus primarily on managing the credit
quality of the underlying portfolio.
Market value CDOs attempt to enhance investor returns through the more frequent
trading and profitable sale of collateral assets. The CDO asset manager seeks to realize
capital gains on the assets in the CDO's portfolio. There is greater focus on the changes
in market value of the CDO's assets. Market value CDOs are longer-established, but
less common than cash flow CDOs.
Motivation—arbitrage vs. balance sheet
Arbitrage transactions (cash flow and market value) attempt to capture for equity
investors the spread between the relatively high yielding assets and the lower yielding
liabilities represented by the rated bonds. The majority, 86%, of CDOs are arbitrage-
motivated.[101]
Balance sheet transactions, by contrast, are primarily motivated by the issuing
institutions' desire to remove loans and other assets from their balance sheets, to reduce
their regulatory capital requirements and improve their return on risk capital. A bank may
wish to offload the credit risk to reduce its balance sheet's credit risk.
Funding—cash vs. synthetic
CDO^n: Generic term for CDO3 (CDO cubed) and higher, where the CDO is
backed by other CDOs/CDO2/CDO3. These are particularly difficult vehicles to
model because of the possible repetition of exposures in the underlying CDO.
Types of collateral[edit]
The collateral for cash CDOs include:
Bank of New York Mellon (note: the Bank of New York Mellon acquired the
corporate trust unit of JP Morgan),
BNP Paribas Securities Services (note: currently serves the European market
only)
Citibank
Deutsche Bank
Equity Trust
Intertrust Group (note: until mid-2009 was known as Fortis Intertrust; Acquired
ATC Capital Markets in 2013)
HSBC
Sanne Trust
State Street Corporation
US Bank (note: US Bank acquired the corporate trust unit of Wachovia in 2008
and Bank of America in September 2011, which had previously acquired LaSalle
Bank in 2010, and is the current market share leader)
Wells Fargo
Wilmington Trust: Wilmington shut down their business in early 2009.
Accountants[edit]
The underwriter typically will hire an accounting firm to perform due diligence on the CDO's
portfolio of debt securities. This entails verifying certain attributes, such as credit rating and
coupon/spread, of each collateral security. Source documents or public sources will typically
be used to tie-out the collateral pool information. In addition, the accountants typically
calculate certain collateral tests and determine whether the portfolio is in compliance with
such tests.
The firm may also perform a cash flow tie-out in which the transaction's waterfall is modeled
per the priority of payments set forth in the transaction documents. The yield and weighted
average life of the bonds or equity notes being issued is then calculated based on the
modeling assumptions provided by the underwriter. On each payment date, an accounting
firm may work with the trustee to verify the distributions that are scheduled to be made to
the noteholders.
Attorneys[edit]
Attorneys ensure compliance with applicable securities law and negotiate and draft the
transaction documents. Attorneys will also draft an offering document or prospectus the
purpose of which is to satisfy statutory requirements to disclose certain information to
investors. This will be circulated to investors. It is common for multiple counsels to be
involved in a single deal because of the number of parties to a single CDO from asset
management firms to underwriters.
In popular media[edit]
In the 2015 biographical film The Big Short, CDOs of mortgage-backed securities are
described metaphorically as "dog shit wrapped in cat shit". [108]
See also[edit]
Asset-backed security
Bespoke portfolio (CDO)
Collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO)
Collateralized fund obligation (CFO)
Collateralized loan obligation (CLO)
List of CDO managers
Credit default swap
Single-tranche CDO
Synthetic CDO
Great Recession
o United States housing bubble
o Subprime mortgage crisis
o Financial crisis of 2007–2008
References[edit]
1. ^
An "asset-backed security" is sometimes used as an umbrella term for a type of
security backed by a pool of assets—including collateralized debt obligations
and mortgage-backed securities. Example: "A capital market in which asset-backed
securities are issued and traded is composed of three main categories: ABS, MBS
and CDOs" (italics added). Source: Vink, Dennis (August 2007). "ABS, MBS and
CDO compared: an empirical analysis" (PDF). Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
Retrieved 13 July 2013..
Other times it is used for a particular type of that security—one backed by consumer
loans. Example: "As a rule of thumb, securitization issues backed by mortgages are
called MBS, and securitization issues backed by debt obligations are called CDO,
[and s]ecuritization issues backed by consumer-backed products—car loans,
consumer loans and credit cards, among others—are called ABS ..." (italics added).
Source: Vink, Dennis (August 2007). "ABS, MBS and CDO compared: an empirical
analysis" (PDF). Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Retrieved 13 July 2013.
External links[edit]
Global Pool of Money (NPR radio)
The Story of the CDO Market Meltdown: An Empirical Analysis-Anna Katherine
Barnett-Hart-March 2009-Cited by Michael Lewis in "The Big Short"
Diagram and Explanation of CDO
CDO and RMBS Diagram-FCIC and IMF
"Investment Landfill"
Portfolio.com explains what CDOs are in an easy-to-understand multimedia
graphic
The Making of a Mortgage CDO multimedia graphic from The Wall Street
Journal
JPRI Occasional Paper No. 37, October 2007. Risk vs Uncertainty: The Cause
of the Current Financial Crisis By Marshall Auerback
How credit cards become asset-backed bonds. From Marketplace
Vink, Dennis and Thibeault, André (2008). "ABS, MBS and CDO Compared: An
Empirical Analysis", Journal of Structured Finance
"A tsunami of hope or terror?", Alan Kohler, Nov 19, 2008.
"The Warning" – an episode on PBS that discusses some of the causes of
the financial crisis of 2007–2008 including the CDOs market
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