2023 Sustainability
2023 Sustainability
2023 Sustainability
Article
A Method for Allocation of Carbon Emission Quotas to
Provincial-Level Industries in China Based on DEA
Chenpeng Feng 1 , Rong Zhou 1 , Jingjing Ding 1 , Xiangze Xiao 2, * and Mingyue Pu 3, *
Abstract: At present, China implements a quota-based trading mechanism to achieve carbon emission
reduction, in which the allocation of carbon emission quotas among different provinces is short
of considering the influence of unbalanced provincial development. Heterogeneity among the
provincial-level three major industries, namely, agriculture, manufacturing and mining, and service
industries, is a case in point. To address this insufficiency, this paper proposes a novel parallel data
envelopment analysis (DEA) based method for carbon emission quota allocation. The method models
each province as a decision-making unit (DMU) and the provincial-level three major industries as
parallel sub-decision-making units (SDMUs). A distinguished feature of the method is that it makes
explicit tradeoffs between efficiency and equality considerations for policymakers in allocating the
carbon quotas among three heterogeneous provincial-level major industries. The empirical results
show that the proposed method effectively improves the overall provincial gross domestic product
(GDP) potentials through the reallocation of carbon quotas among industries while the equality level
is not worse off. This work is helpful for policymakers to achieve a long-term emission reduction
target and provides suggestions for improving the initial allocation mechanism of a national carbon
trading market.
Keywords: data envelopment analysis (DEA); parallel structure; allocation of carbon emission quotas;
Citation: Feng, C.; Zhou, R.; Ding, J.; Gini coefficient; three major industries
Xiao, X.; Pu, M. A Method for
Allocation of Carbon Emission
Quotas to Provincial-Level Industries
in China Based on DEA. Sustainability 1. Introduction
2023, 15, 2632. https://doi.org/
Global warming has become a pressing issue that needs to be addressed by all coun-
10.3390/su15032632
tries. To respond to the threat of climate change, it is universally agreed that greenhouse
Academic Editors: Jinhua Xu and gases need to be maintained at an adequate level, which led to the successful signing of the
Hongguang Nie Kyoto Protocol in December 1997. Later, 196 members of the United Nations Framework
Received: 17 December 2022
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiated and finally adopted the Paris Agree-
Revised: 18 January 2023
ment at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, pledging to limit
Accepted: 30 January 2023
global warming to 2 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing more ambitious efforts
Published: 1 February 2023 to limit the rise of temperature further to 1.5 degrees and arrive at “net zero” greenhouse
gas emissions worldwide in the 21st century [1].
The carbon trading market is a critical mechanism for achieving carbon emission
reduction. The Kyoto Protocol permits carbon emission quotas to be traded among parties,
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. which opens the possibility of “carbon trading” among countries under different models
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. leading up to the birth of a carbon trading market in the European Union (EU) in 2005 [2].
This article is an open access article The existing carbon trading market operation mechanisms fall into two categories: quota-
distributed under the terms and based trading and project-based trading. The quota-based trading model is the most widely
conditions of the Creative Commons adopted one. Included in this category, for example, are the European Union Emissions
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and the Western
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
Climate Initiative (WCI).
4.0/).
China introduced a quota-based national carbon market in 2011 and carried out trad-
ing pilot work in seven regions successively (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing,
Hubei, Guangdong, and Shenzhen). By the end of 2021, the cumulative volume of carbon
quotas traded in the national carbon market achieved 140 million tons. In addition to
the development of the national carbon market, some provinces have created local car-
bon emission trading markets as an indispensable part of China’s carbon market. For
example, Zhejiang province has established the first local carbon-inclusive market in the
city of Yueqing, where both enterprises and individuals can participate in carbon trading
independently [3].
The carbon emissions from China are among the highest in the world, which means
China needs more efforts to reduce carbon emissions. According to statistics from British
Petroleum (BP) [4], the carbon emissions of China in 2021 were 10,398 tons, far exceeding
the shares of other countries. In the meantime, China has set up an ambitious national
plan to actively control carbon emissions. For example, to achieve the Intended Nationally
Determined Contribution (INDC) target specified in 2015 for addressing climate change, the
Chinese Government Work Report proposed a binding constraint for the carbon emission
intensity to decline by 18% compared with that of 2020 during the “14th Five-Year” Plan
period, i.e., 2021–2025.
Allocation of carbon quotas is a fundamental issue in implementing a carbon trad-
ing mechanism [5]. The current carbon quota allocation mechanism in China is facing
challenges. Presently, China allocates national carbon reduction targets on a provincial
basis. However, this method has called into question the viability of allocation results. For
example, the economic development of industrial provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi, and
Inner Mongolia heavily depends on high energy-consuming sectors. Under the allocation
method, these provinces are in huge carbon emission deficits, i.e., their actual carbon emis-
sions are much larger than their carbon quotas. In the meantime, service industry-oriented
regions such as Beijing and Shanghai, where the tertiary industry accounts for a larger share,
are found in a “low emission, high quota” situation [6]. In this case, the allocation method
is short of considerations of differences in regional industrial structures. It has generated
large proportions of emission reductions for some regions, provinces, or municipalities,
making it difficult to achieve the targets and causing pain to the economies. Therefore,
it is worthwhile and necessary to study an alternative allocation method that considers
differences in regional industrial structures. As regions (provinces or municipalities) are
different in economic and social development, emission reduction potential varies. Taking
into account differences in carbon quota allocation schemes undoubtedly reduces the bias
of targets and enhances feasibility.
The differences among the three major industries (i.e., agriculture, manufacturing
and mining, and service industries, hereinafter referred to as primary industry, secondary
industry, and tertiary industry) in carbon quota allocation have not yet attracted atten-
tion in academia. In the literature, scholars propose that policymakers need to consider
the criteria of efficiency and equality to better account for the unbalanced development
among provinces. Many papers report on the allocation of provincial-level carbon quotas
based on these two criteria. They show empirically that the heterogeneity arising from
different sectors, regions, or industries has a significant impact on the allocation of carbon
quotas [7–10]. However, they have not provided a quantitative decision tool to incorporate
the impact of the uneven development of provinces and the heterogeneity among the three
major industries on carbon quota allocation.
Hence, it is necessary to design a suitable mechanism to improve the provincial-level
carbon quota allocation in China. In the literature, scholars tend to analyze a production
process that simultaneously generates desirable and undesirable products as byproducts
(e.g., pollutants) based on the joint-production theory of production economics [11,12]. In
addition, as a non-parametric evaluation technique, they often apply the Data Envelopment
Analysis (DEA) technique to model joint-production processes with both desirable and
undesirable outputs. Some researchers have proposed DEA-based models, taking into
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 3 of 21
account efficiency and equality, and used them in provincial carbon quota allocation in
China [13,14]. Regarding the equality criterion, the Gini coefficient is a standard tool widely
used to analyze income inequality. Many studies propose to measure the equality of carbon
emissions among countries by the Gini coefficient [15,16].
Based on the current studies, in this paper, to model the differences in regional indus-
trial structures, we propose a parallel DEA model to allocate quotas and balance efficiency
and equality considerations. Regarding the equality criterion, we draw on existing studies
and use the Gini coefficient as an indicator of equality for carbon quota allocation. Re-
garding the efficiency criterion, this paper aims to maximize the overall desirable output
potentials. The parallel DEA-based allocation model can generate more efficient results
since it is capable of utilizing the information on the internal structural features of decision-
making units (DMUs) [17,18]. Finally, note that even though the three major industries
belong to different fields and have their industry characteristics, they utilize similar input
factors. Thus, the three major industries are modeled as three parallel sub-decision-making
units (SDMUs).
In general, the paper aims to investigate and recommend carbon quota schemes
for the three major industries at the provinciallevel in China from the perspective of
efficiency and equity. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, distinct from
the previous research, this paper takes into account the differences in the structure and
development of the three major industries in each province and provides a more scientific
and reasonable carbon quota allocation scheme among provincial industries under the
criterion of balancing efficiency and equality. Second, this paper improves the existing DEA
models and constructs a parallel structured allocation model based on the DEA model that
contains undesirable outputs while introducing the Gini coefficient in the model to ensure
the equality of the allocation results.
The rest of this paper is as follows: Section 2 presents the related studies of carbon
quota allocation based on the DEA model and the studies of evaluation and allocation based
on the parallel structure DEA model. In Section 3, this paper presents a parallel structure
DEA allocation model. Section 4 constructs a parallel-structured resource allocation model
that balances efficiency and equality by incorporating the Gini coefficient into the model.
In Section 5, we show an empirical study involving 30 provincial industrial sectors in
China, which is based on the proposed model in this paper. Finally, Section 6 provides
the conclusions.
2. Literature Review
2.1. Related Research on Carbon Quota Allocation Based on DEA Models
Many studies have studied the allocation issue based on a single criterion: either effi-
ciency or equality. Gomes and Lins [19] proposed that the ZSG-DEA model is particularly
suitable for equilibrium models and used it to analyze the allocation of CO2 emission rights
among countries under the Kyoto Protocol. Fang et al. [20] proposed an allocation plan
for the provincial carbon quota allocation of China based on the 2030 emission reduction
target by improved DEA models. Yang et al. [21] used an environmental DEA model
to propose that carbon quotas could be allocated through two principles: incremental
efficiency improvements and emissions abatement planning. Mahdiloo et al. [22] proposed
a DEA model based on the eco-efficiency values of electricity generators to analyze carbon
emissions and carbon quotas.
However, when allocating carbon quotas among regions, there is also a need to
consider equality of allocation in addition to efficiency. Kong et al. [23] conducted a study
on the allocation of carbon quotas in various geographic regions of China based on the
entropy method and DEA model. In this work, the authors introduced an environmental
Gini coefficient as a measure of equality of allocation schemes. Chen et al. [9] combined
the entropy method, the Super-SBM model, and the ZSG-DEA model and applied them to
allocate the 2030 emission abatement target for China. From the perspectives of efficiency,
equality, and equity, Zhan et al. [24] constructed a ZSG-SBM-based allocation model to
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 4 of 21
obtain a reasonable scheme for the allocation of carbon quotas among provinces in China in
2019. Cheng et al. [25] considered the implied emissions of inter-provincial power transfer,
combined with the DEA model and environmental Gini coefficient, and designed a dynamic
carbon quota allocation model. Their model utilized four criteria: egalitarianism, historical
responsibility, emission reduction capacity, and emission efficiency. Shojaei and Mokhtar [5]
combined environmentally relevant DEA and equilibrium efficient frontier DEA models
to integrate a carbon quota allocation scheme and a carbon quota trading scheme into a
framework that effectively translates the overall reduction target into a reduction target for
each country.
In addition, the differences in industrial structure and economic development among
provinces cause concerns in solving the allocation issue. Scholars have studied the allocation
of provincial-level carbon quotas in China from the perspective of industries and sectors.
Wu et al. [26] used the DEA method to allocate carbon quotas in provincial industrial
sectors of China to reduce energy intensity. Li et al. [27] allocated thermal power carbon
quotas in 30 provinces in China. Gan et al. [28] integrated a fixed-cost allocation model and
a zero-sum DEA model to allocate carbon quotas to the public building sector in China
for 2030.
Table 1 summarizes the above research related to carbon quota allocation based on
DEA models. As can be seen from Table 1, scholars have balanced equity and efficiency cri-
teria when developing carbon quota schemes in recent years, and this paper is no exception.
Next, most of the decision variables in the literature consist of energy consumption, capital
stock, and population as input variables, and GDP and carbon emissions as output vari-
ables. Some scholars use CO2 as an input in their studies. However, CO2 is a by-product
of the production activity, and it would be more in line with the physical production
process to consider it as an undesirable product. Some scholars have broken down the
emission reduction targets by sector, considering the characteristics of sectors to generate a
quota allocation scheme for the sectors in each province. However, no scholars have yet
considered the differences among the three major industries in each province. This paper
has created a set of quota schemes for the three major industries in each province based on
the total amount of carbon quotas in China as a whole, which effectively fills this gap.
Table 1. This paper vs. the literature of carbon quota allocation based on DEA models.
Table 1. Cont.
In contrast to the widespread evaluation studies using the parallel DEA, few studies
have applied it to the allocation of resources. Xiong et al. [34] proposed a new DEA method
to allocate resources in bidirectional interactive parallel systems. Liu et al. [35] proposed
a parallel DEA model considering sub-system preferences and streaming data to provide
suggestions for improving the integrated environmental efficiency of the road transport
industry. Ang et al. [36] further extended the two-stage DEA model with a parallel structure
to propose intra-organizational and inter-organizational resource allocation schemes for
two different organizational systems. Xiong et al. [37] combined cross-efficiency with
parallel structure DEA to balance organizational goals and individual preferences in the
resource allocation process.
Table 2 summarizes the above research related to parallel DEA models. It can be
found that since the parallel structure DEA was proposed, scholars have mostly applied
it to efficiency evaluation and less to resource allocation. In fact, considering the internal
composition structure of decision units in the resource allocation process can effectively
identify inefficient sub-units and make targeted improvements. Based on this observation,
this paper applies parallel structure DEA to carbon quota allocation based on three major
industries to propose a more scientific and reasonable carbon quota allocation scheme.
Allocation
Resource Allocation
Guidelines
Reference Carbon Quota Sectors
Efficiency Equality Others
Allocation
√
Kao [29] (2009) √
Lo Storto [30] (2020) √ Urban water industry
Kordrostami [17] (2014) √
Lei et al. [31] (2015) √
Esmaeilzadeh and Kazemi [18] (2019) √
Lin and Tu [32] (2021) √ √
Gan et al. [33] (2022) √ √
Xiong et al. [34] (2018) √ √
Liu et al. [35] (2020) √ √ Road transport industry
Ang et al. [36] (2020) √ √
Xiong et al. [37] (2022) √ √ √ √
This paper Three major industries
√
Note: Where indicates that the item is included in the literature.
undesirable output production system in this paper that perfectly serves our research
purpose. We use the gross domestic product (GDP) as the desirable output and carbon
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 8 of 21
emissions as the undesirable output, which are typical indicators documented in many
studies [11,38].
Figure1.1.Parallel
Figure Parallelstructure
structuresystem.
system.
The
TheDEA
DEAmodels
modelsdesigned
designedininthis
thispaper
paperall
allsatisfy
satisfythe
thefollowing
followingassumptions:
assumptions:
(1)
(1) Variable returns-to-scale (VRS).
Variable returns-to-scale (VRS).
(2)
(2) Weak disposability.
Weak disposability. Reducing
Reducing the
the undesirable
undesirable outputs
outputs under
under the
the current
current technology
technology
will inevitably reduce the desirable outputs.
will inevitably reduce the desirable outputs.
(3) Null joint-ness. The only way to eliminate
(3) eliminate the
the undesirable
undesirable output
output isis to
to shut
shut down
down
production.
production.
Combingthe
Combing theVRS
VRSassumption
assumption and and
thethe weak
weak disposability
disposability and joint-ness
and null null joint-ness as-
assump-
sumptions
tions pose apose a challenge
challenge to modeling
to modeling in the literature.
in the literature. Zhou
Zhou et et al.
al. [39] [39] proposed
proposed a new asetnew
of
set of environmental
environmental production
production possibilities
possibilities to achieve
to achieve this purpose.
this purpose. In thisthe
In this paper, paper, the
parallel
parallel allocation
allocation model (1)model (1) is based
is provided providedon thebased on themodel
allocation allocation
undermodel under
the VRS the VRS
assumption
assumption proposed by
proposed by Feng et al. [38]. Feng et al. [38].
q n n p p
max ∑ ∑ ∑ λhj yh
p =1 h =1 j =1
n p p p p
s.t. ∑ λhj xij ≤ σh xih i = 1, . . . , m; p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n p p p p
∑ λhj R j = Rh − bh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n q
p (1)
∑ ∑ bh = B
h =1 p =1
n p p
∑ λhj = σh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
p
λhj ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n; j = 1, . . . , n
p
ε ≤ σh ≤ 1 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
p p
R h − bh ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
p
The subscript h denotes the evaluated unit, i.e., the h-th DMU, and λhj denotes the
p p
weight vector when evaluating the SDMUh . σh is an adjustable variable, a positive number
not greater than 1, which is a correction for the weak disposability as well as the null
p p p
joint-ness. R j − bh denotes the expected carbon emission level of SDMUh . B denotes
the overall carbon reduction level. The objective of model (1) is to maximize the overall
desirable output, i.e., GDP potentials, for a certain level of carbon reduction.
according to an equality indicator [41,42]. For example, in this paper, we argue that a
carbon emission reduction quota should be allocated according to the GDP proportion of a
province in the national GDP. In this case, the carbon reduction quota serves as a service
unit and the GDP as an equality unit.
Let us denote S j ( j = 1, . . . , n) the service units and L j ( j = 1, . . . , n) the equality
units. According to Mandell [43], the Gini coefficient can be written as the following
analytical formula:
∑ ∑ | l k St − l t Sk |
t k>t
G= ,
∑ St
t
Lt
where lt = ∑ Lj
. From the above formula, it can be seen that G ∈ [0, 1].
j
Below we introduce the Gini coefficient of carbon emissions of the three major in-
dustries as an indicator to measure the equality of carbon quota allocation to capture the
equality of allocation among the three industries [44]. Specifically, the initial carbon emis-
sion of an industry in a province is taken as a service unit and the GDP of the industry in the
province is taken as the equality unit before carbon quota allocation. The Gini coefficient of
the initial industrial carbon emission indicates the equality of carbon emission allocation in
terms of its GDP. Its analytical formula is given below.
p p p p
∑ ∑ k t
l R − l R
t k
p t k>t
G = p ,
∑ Rt
t
p
p yt
where lt = p denotes the proportion of provincial-industry level GDP in the national
∑ yj
j
p p p p
GDP of industry p. Rt , Rk indicate the carbon emissions of SDMUt and SDMUk before the
allocation, respectively. Similarly, after the allocation of carbon emission, using the expected
carbon emission level as the service unit, the industry carbon emission Gini coefficient is
defined as follows:
p p p p p p
∑ ∑ lk Rt − bt − lt Rk − bk
p t k>t
G0 =
p p
.
∑ R t − bt
t
To ensure that the equality of the allocation scheme after the carbon quota allocation
is not inferior to the initial carbon quota scheme, it is reasonable to require that the after-
allocation carbon emission Gini coefficient of the industry is less than or equal to the
p
initial carbon emission Gini coefficient, that is, G 0 ≤ G p . Based on the model (1) and the
Gini coefficient of industrial carbon emissions, this paper proposes the equality-enhanced
parallel resource allocation model (2). The 5th constraint ensures that the equality of the
allocation does not deteriorate. In this way, model (2) is able to combine the efficiency
and equality criteria into a model so that the trade-offs between the two criteria can be
handled effectively.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 10 of 21
q n n p p
max ∑ ∑ ∑ λhj yh
p =1 h =1 j =1
n p p p p
s.t. ∑ λhj xij ≤ σh xih i = 1, . . . , m; p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n p p p p
∑ λhj R j = Rh − bh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n q
p
∑ ∑ bh = B
h =1 p =1
n (2)
p p
∑ λhj = σh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n n p p p p p p
∑ ∑ |lk ( Rt −bt )−lt ( Rk −bk )|
t =1 k > t
n p p
≤ Gp p = 1, . . . , q
∑ ( R t − bt )
t =1
p
λhj ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n; j = 1, . . . , n
p
ε ≤ σh ≤ 1 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
p p
R h − bh ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
To transform model (2) to a linear one, we propose the following substitutions of variables:
p p p p p p p+ p−
lk Rt − bt − lt Rk − bk = ztk − ztk t = 1, . . . , n; k > t.
The model (2) can thus be transformed into the linear programming form (3).
q n n p p
max ∑ ∑ ∑ λhj yh
p =1 h =1 j =1
n p p p p
s.t. ∑ λhj xij ≤ σh xih i = 1, . . . , m; p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n p p p p
∑ λhj R j = Rh − bh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n q
p
∑ ∑ bh = B
h =1 p =1
n (3)
p p
∑ λhj = σh p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
j =1
n n p+ p− n p p
∑ ∑ (ztk + ztk ) ≤ G p ∑ ( Rt − bt ) p = 1, . . . , q
t =1 k > t t =1
p p p p p p p+ p−
lk ( Rt − bt ) − lt ( Rk − bk ) − ztk + ztk =0 p = 1, . . . , q; t = 1, . . . , n; k > t
p
λhj ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n; j = 1, . . . , n
p
ε ≤ σh ≤ 1 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
p p
R h − bh ≥ 0 p = 1, . . . , q; h = 1, . . . , n
5. Empirical Analysis
5.1. Data Sources and Parameter Specifications
Each province is modeled as a DMU, and the three major industries in the province are
considered as SDMUs. The inputs of each industry are capital stock, year-end employment,
and energy consumption; the desirable output is GDP, and the undesirable output is carbon
emission. Due to the availability of data, this paper collects the data of the year 2019 related
to the three major industries of 30 provinces of China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao,
and Taiwan). The data sources and units of measure are provided as follows:
1. Capital stock (Unit: 100 million RMB): The data are estimated based on statistical data
from Historical Information on China’s GDP Accounting 1952–2004, Statistical Year-
book of the Chinese Investment Field, Statistical Communique on National Economic
and Social Development of each region, and Statistical Yearbook of each province,
using Zhang’s perpetual inventory method [45]. To clarify, in this paper, the gross
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 11 of 21
fixed capital formation since 2002 is selected as the total investment in fixed assets in
the calculation of capital stock [46], while the total investment in fixed assets in each
region after 2017 is indirectly calculated from Statistical Communique on National
Economic and Social Development. The investment deflator for the three industries is
adopted from the investment deflator construction method proposed by Zong and
Liao [46]. The depreciation rate of fixed assets is set to 9.6%, proposed by Zhang [45].
We chose the year 2000 as the base year, and the base year capital stock of the three
industries across regions is calculated by the method proposed by Li [47].
2. Year-end employment (Unit: 10,000 people): The data are extracted from the respective
provincial Statistical Yearbook 2020.
3. Energy consumption (Unit: 10,000 tons of standard coal): The amount is calculated
based on the comprehensive energy balances of provinces and cities from the China
Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020. The 29 energy types involved in the energy consump-
tion calculation were determined by following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [48] and the China Energy Statistical Yearbook. The
conversion coefficients of each energy source were obtained from the National Bureau
of Statistics of China. The industrial attribution of each sector is based on the Indus-
trial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T 4754-2017) [49] and the
Regulations on the Dividing Basis of Three Industries. Finally, the energy consump-
tion of industries in each province was derived from the conversion coefficients of the
29 energy types and the conversion coefficients of each sector.
4. GDP (Unit: 100 million RMB): The data are from the respective provincial Statistical
Yearbook 2020.
5. Carbon emissions (Unit: 10,000 tons): The data are calculated based on the energy
consumption of provinces and cities from China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020.
Note that the calculation requires first categorizing the 29 energy sources into five
major categories: coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heating power. Then, the
product of the energy consumption of each industrial sector and the corresponding
energy carbon emission factor is the carbon emission of that energy category. The
emission factors of coal, oil, and natural gas can be obtained directly from the Energy
Statistics Yearbook, while the carbon emission factors of electricity and heating power
are calculated based on the fuel combustion in the power sector [50].
Specific data for each indicator can be found in Table A1.
Before allocating resources, the total amount of carbon quotas to be allocated needs
to be determined. The actual national carbon emissions of the year 2020 are taken as the
total amount of carbon quotas targets. According to the 70th edition of the World Energy
Statistics Yearbook published by BP [4], the total carbon emissions from China in 2020
would be 9.786 billion tons. According to the “13th Five-Year” Plan to Control Greenhouse
Gas Emissions [51], the national carbon intensity was expected to be reduced by 18% in
2020 compared with 2015. The actual result shows that this indicator eventually decreased
by 18.8%, which exceeded the target.
Model (3) is applied to obtain the allocation of carbon quotas for the three major
industries in 30 Chinese provinces in the year 2020. Before running the model, it is also
useful to limit the allowed range of variation of carbon quotas for each SDMU. To this end,
we run model (3) with different range restrictions to obtain total GDP potentials. Figure 2
reports the results.
As can be seen from Figure 2, the total GDP potentials gradually increase as the range
of the carbon emission reduction ratio is broadened. However, too large a percentage of
emission reductions would make the program impractical, if not infeasible. This paper
finally fixes the upper and lower bounds of carbon emissions for SDMUs at [0.5, 1.5] of the
initial carbon emissions.
decreased by 18.8%, which exceeded the target.
Model (3) is applied to obtain the allocation of carbon quotas for the three major
industries in 30 Chinese provinces in the year 2020. Before running the model, it is also
useful to limit the allowed range of variation of carbon quotas for each SDMU. To this
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 end, we run model (3) with different range restrictions to obtain total GDP potentials.
12 of 21
Figure 2 reports the results.
1,210,000.00
Total GDP potential/100 million RMB
1,200,000.00
1,190,000.00
1,180,000.00
1,170,000.00
1,160,000.00
1,150,000.00
1,140,000.00
1,130,000.00
1,120,000.00
1,110,000.00
0.9−1.1 0.8−1.2 0.7−1.3 0.6−1.4 0.5−1.5 0.4−1.6 0.3−1.7 0.2−1.8 0.1−1.9 0−2
Figure 2. Schematic diagrams of the relations between the total GDP potentials and the value range
Figure 2. Schematic diagrams of the relations between the total GDP potentials and the value range
of the carbon emission reduction ratio.
of the carbon emission reduction ratio.
5.2. Analysis of the Results
The results show that the total GDP potential is 119.9006 trillion RMB, which is a
significant increase from the actual national total GDP of 98.3635 trillion RMB in 2020. The
Gini coefficients of carbon emissions for each industry after the allocation are the same as
those before the allocation, and the Gini coefficient of carbon emissions among provinces
decreases by 0.0233 after the carbon quota allocation. Namely, the resulting allocation result
is more equal to the initial allocation scheme, as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Comparison of carbon emission Gini coefficient before and after allocation.
1 2
Table 4 reports the carbon quota allocation results. In Table 4, the columns R0j , R0j ,
3
and R0j are allocated carbon quotas (in 10,000 tons) for the primary, secondary, and tertiary
p p
industries by region. The relative changes are shown in columns (R0j /R j ) and visually
displayed in Figure 3. The column R0j indicates the total carbon quotas by region after the
1 2 3
allocation (in 10,000 tons) (R0j +R0j +R0j ).
1 2 3 1 2 3
DMU R’j R’j R’j R’j /R1j R’j /R2j R’j /R3j R’j R’j /Rj
Table 4. Cont.
1 2 3 1 2 3
DMU R’j R’j R’j R’j /R1j R’j /R2j R’j /R3j R’j R’j /Rj
Figure
Figure 3. Change
3. Change inin industrialcarbon
industrial carbon emission
emission ratio
ratioofofeach province
each before
province and and
before afterafter
allocation.
allocation.
Table 4 and Figure 3 indicate that the resulting reductions for provinces or munici-
palities show different features. In the primary industry, Beijing has the largest propor-
tion of incremental emissions, followed by Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Gansu; 14 prov-
inces, including Ningxia and Shanxi, need to reduce emissions, with Shanxi having the
largest proportion of emission reductions. In the secondary industry, only Jilin, Hei-
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 14 of 21
Table 4 and Figure 3 indicate that the resulting reductions for provinces or municipal-
ities show different features. In the primary industry, Beijing has the largest proportion
of incremental emissions, followed by Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Gansu; 14 provinces,
including Ningxia and Shanxi, need to reduce emissions, with Shanxi having the largest
proportion of emission reductions. In the secondary industry, only Jilin, Heilongjiang, and
Chongqing need to reduce emissions, and 13 provinces, such as Sichuan and Yunnan, need
to increase emissions, with Sichuan and Yunnan having the largest proportion of emissions
increase. In the tertiary industry, 10 provinces, such as Qinghai and Sichuan, need to
increase emissions, and Qinghai and Sichuan have the largest proportion of increased
emissions; and 13 provinces, such as Tianjin and Inner Mongolia, need to reduce emissions,
of which Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Heilongjiang have the largest proportion of reductions.
It should be noted that the overall allocation scheme is basically in line with the current
situation of regional industrial development (for example, heavy industrial regions such as
Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, whose carbon quota allocation is still dominated by
the secondary industry).
The total amount of carbon quotas to be allocated is higher than the total amount
of carbon emissions in 2019, which is the main reason for the increases in carbon quotas
for industries in the majority of regions in Figure 3. Among them, the carbon before and
after the allocation of the three major industries in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Shaanxi do not
p p
change; the ratio (R0j /R j ) of the three major industries in Zhejiang and Gansu is greater
than 1 after allocation. Put differently, they have obtained more carbon quotas and occupy
p p
a favorable position in the carbon trading market. The post-allocation ratios (R0j /R j ) of
the remaining regions show a great variation. For example, the primary industries in Hubei
and Yunnan need to reduce carbon emissions, and the secondary and tertiary industries
need to increase carbon emissions to reach their optimal GDP potentials. This implies that
the differences among industries have an effect on the outcome of the allocation process,
which is anticipated.
It is worth noting that regional industrial carbon quota changes can be expressed in
absolute and relative terms. When the initial carbon emissions quantity is large, even a
small relative change to the proportion of carbon emissions can lead to a larger absolute
change in quantity. In that case, it is a great challenge to implement emission reductions
for regional industries. To address this issue, regional industries that are to receive fewer
carbon quotas can first consider coordinating industries to better use quotas within the
region; if their carbon quotas have dropped significantly from the pre-allocation level,
and they fail to meet the emission reduction targets through internal coordination, they
may obtain more carbon quotas through carbon trading mechanisms. For example, the
increase in carbon quotas for the secondary industry in Shanxi is much smaller than the
reductions in the primary and tertiary industries, and the reductions in carbon quotas for
the secondary industry in Chongqing is smaller than the increase for the tertiary industry.
The provinces with sufficient carbon emission quotas, such as Hubei, Sichuan, and Yunnan,
can profit from carbon trading.
Since regional differences are prominent in China, many policies need to be specified
at the regional level. The Development Research Center of the State Council divided China
into eight comprehensive economic zones based on resources, regional development, and
other factors (as shown in Table A2 [23]). Below we analyze the regional carbon quota
allocation results based on this classification. The specific quota results are shown in Table 5
and Figure 4. From Table 5, it can be found that the regions with the largest total carbon
quotas before and after allocation are both northern coastal regions, and the smallest total
carbon quotas are both northwestern regions.
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 22
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 15 of 21
180,000.00
150,000.00
Allocation quotas (CO2 /10,000 tons)
120,000.00
90,000.00
60,000.00
30,000.00
0.00
Northern coastal Eastern coastal Middle Yellow River Southwest
Region
Figure 5. The
Figure 5. The proportion
proportion of
of regional
regional industry
industry quota
quota changes
changes before
before and
and after.
after.
6. Conclusions
6. Conclusions
From the perspectives of efficiency and equality, this paper considers CO2 as an
From the
undesirable perspectives
output and proposesof efficiency
a parallel and
DEA equality,
resource thisallocation
paper considers CO2 as an
model considering
undesirable output and proposes a parallel DEA resource allocation
industrial structure characteristics of regions, and conducts an empirical study on the allo- model considering
industrial
cation structure characteristics
of provincial-level carbon quotas of regions, andmajor
for the three conducts an empirical
industries in China.study on the
The method
allocation of provincial-level carbon quotas for the three major industries
provided in this study can implement carbon emission quota allocation in pursuit of maxi- in China. The
method provided in this study can implement carbon emission
mizing macro performance. This is a useful modification to the current carbon emissions quota allocation in pur-
suit of maximizing
trading market in China,macrowhich
performance.
is gradually This expanding
is a useful modification
its coverage. to The the current car-
methodology
bon emissions trading market in China, which is gradually expanding
we provide assesses regional carbon emission efficiencies from a more comprehensive its coverage. The
methodology
perspective andwe provide
also assesses
facilitates regional and
more scientific carbon emission
precise guidance efficiencies
for local from a more
governments
comprehensive
to improve carbon perspective and also
emission control and facilitates
improve more scientific sustainability.
environmental and precise guidance for
In addition,
local governments to improve carbon emission control and improve
the Chinese government has clearly proposed to transit from the dual control of total energy environmental sus-
tainability. Inand
consumption addition,
energythe Chinese
intensity to government
the dual control has ofclearly proposed
total carbon to transit
emissions andfrom the
carbon
dual control of total energy consumption and energy intensity to the
intensity. This implies that the scope of inclusion of carbon emission control is expanding dual control of total
carbon
from emissions
trading and carbon
enterprises to theintensity.
whole society.This implies
The method that the scope of
provided ininclusion
this studyofcan carbon
be a
emission control
powerful reference is expanding
for formulatingfrom and
trading enterprisescarbon
decomposing to the emission
whole society.
control The method
targets by
provided inand
sub-region this study can be a powerful reference for formulating and decomposing
industry.
carbon
Theemission
empirical control targets
results showbythatsub-region and industry.
the equality of the resulting allocation scheme is
The empirical
the same as that ofresults show
the actual that the
carbon equalityallocation
emissions of the resulting
scheme, allocation
while the scheme
total is the
GDP
potentials
same as thatis substantially
of the actual increased compared
carbon emissions to the initial
allocation totalwhile
scheme, GDP.the Thetotalresults
GDP show
po-
the effectiveness
tentials and rationality
is substantially increased of the proposed
compared to the method.
initial totalFor example,
GDP. carbon
The results quotas
show the
in Shandong, and
effectiveness Innerrationality
Mongolia,ofand theother heavy method.
proposed industrialFor regions are still
example, dominated
carbon quotas byin
secondary
Shandong, industries.
Inner Mongolia,Furthermore,
and other theheavy
resulting allocation
industrial scheme
regions takesdominated
are still into account by
regional
secondary industrial
industries.characteristics.
Furthermore, In the
addition, the carbon
resulting quotas
allocation of Jiangsu,
scheme takes intoHainan, and
account
regional industrial characteristics. In addition, the carbon quotas of Jiangsu, Hainan, and
Shaanxi remain unchanged before and after the allocation. In the meantime, the carbon
quotas of Jilin and Heilongjiang have declined disproportionately. Particularly,carbon
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 17 of 21
Shaanxi remain unchanged before and after the allocation. In the meantime, the carbon
quotas of Jilin and Heilongjiang have declined disproportionately. Particularly, carbon
quota allocations for all three major industries in Jilin have declined significantly after
allocation, indicating that it will face greater pressure in the future to purchase carbon
quotas from provinces other than emission reduction provinces, while Zhejiang and Gansu
obtain more carbon quotas after the allocation and can sell on their carbon quotas. From the
regional allocation results, the southern coastal and eastern coastal regions have received
more carbon quotas, and government departments will have a more flexible capacity in
formulating emission reduction policies for the relevant regions. The Middle Yellow River
and northeast regions have seen a disproportionate decline in carbon quotas and face
greater pressure to reduce emissions than other regions with lower carbon quotas for a
single industry.
According to the above empirical results, four policy implications are proposed:
1. The Gini coefficient for carbon emissions in both primary and tertiary industries was
less than 0.3 before the allocation was made, making the allocation scheme relatively
equal. The Gini coefficient for carbon emissions in the secondary industry is 0.3835,
which is a reasonable allocation scheme, but there is still a large gap from the levels of
other industries. Policymakers should further improve the equality level of carbon
quota allocation schemes between provinces, which will make it more reasonable for
provinces to set carbon quota schemes within industries.
2. Due to the disproportionate emission abatement among and within provinces for
the three major industries after carbon quota allocation, the allocation scheme can be
implemented through carbon quota trading between provinces. Therefore, policy-
makers need to provide policies for industry emission reductions and accelerate the
establishment and improvement of provincial and municipal carbon trading markets.
3. Judging from the regional allocation results, the southern coastal and eastern coastal
regions have the same trend of industrial carbon quota changes. By contrast, the
changes in the rest of the regional industrial carbon quota changes are mixed. There-
fore, if policymakers are to fully consider industrial factors when formulating regional
carbon emission reductions and trading policies, our work suggests establishing a
regional carbon trading market in the mixed region first.
4. The centralized parallel resource allocation model proposed in this paper is applicable
to any situation that has a by-product resource allocation in a parallel state. An
example is the allocation of carbon quotas for regional enterprises.
One limitation of this paper is that the equality of the allocation among provinces is
not considered in the process of conducting the allocation of carbon quotas among the three
major industries at the provincial-level in China. In addition, for future research directions,
this paper will consider the impact of equity criteria other than the Gini coefficient on the
allocation scheme among SDMUs. Meanwhile, for any carbon quota allocation scheme,
how to effectively promote the carbon quotas market and improve the trading mechanism
is also a subsequent research direction.
Appendix A
Energy
Capital Stock Year-End GDP Carbon
Consumption
Industry DMU (100 Million Employment (100 Million Emissions
(10,000 Tons of
RMB) (10,000 People) RMB) (10,000 Tons)
Standard Coal)
Beijing 323.40 42.40 55.24 113.69 66.22
Tianjin 938.23 58.28 88.86 185.23 197.11
Hebei 4084.02 1331.15 491.73 3518.44 1186.49
Shanxi 2423.45 666.70 284.67 824.72 743.83
Inner
2734.12 556.80 354.96 1863.19 981.01
Mongolia
Liaoning 968.75 619.43 290.67 2177.77 631.36
Jilin 1628.23 466.20 152.71 1287.32 378.70
Heilongjiang 2139.59 564.10 591.78 3182.45 1410.22
Shanghai 45.41 40.80 41.16 103.88 84.43
Jiangsu 943.61 734.51 506.60 4296.28 1035.46
Zhejiang 849.03 406.83 352.23 2097.38 609.39
Anhui 1847.83 1346.90 219.90 2915.70 480.87
Fujian 2223.87 548.85 208.39 2596.23 371.96
Primary Jiangxi 1339.34 700.80 127.18 2057.56 288.98
industry Shandong 2952.41 1652.60 593.26 5116.44 1315.58
Henan 5471.54 2277.00 461.62 4635.40 1020.05
Hubei 1991.66 1164.00 385.94 3809.09 750.89
Hunan 2547.64 1409.24 482.56 3646.95 1201.66
Guangdong 1333.43 1300.61 553.66 4351.26 1006.37
Guangxi 2112.27 1388.00 187.02 3387.74 318.01
Hainan 122.85 586.12 98.60 1080.36 269.50
Chongqing 1607.42 451.06 84.28 1551.42 175.67
Sichuan 2243.66 1716.00 229.22 4807.24 353.63
Guizhou 1437.16 1074.91 200.89 2280.56 466.35
Yunnan 2132.48 1394.83 249.53 3037.62 482.66
Shaanxi 345.04 787.00 176.44 1990.93 385.54
Gansu 3056.46 820.80 201.00 1050.48 342.23
Qinghai 1151.28 105.40 18.62 301.90 24.03
Ningxia 257.28 148.10 71.38 279.93 195.40
Xinjiang 333.79 484.47 462.94 1781.75 1188.75
Beijing 952.54 172.50 1580.32 5715.06 2267.74
Tianjin 25,792.49 272.55 5211.09 4969.18 11,986.47
Hebei 62,275.08 1390.79 26,324.62 13,597.26 68,542.18
Shanxi 15,846.41 396.20 13,455.75 7453.09 37,598.43
Inner
29,490.71 209.30 18,643.84 6818.88 55,674.47
Mongolia
Liaoning 31,860.75 702.30 16,365.09 9531.24 41,176.28
Secondary
Jilin 33,379.44 302.30 4361.34 4134.82 12,444.33
industry
Heilongjiang 15,416.11 306.80 5028.46 3615.21 13,362.38
Shanghai 10,023.36 335.67 5910.99 10,299.16 13,124.44
Jiangsu 122,170.38 2011.96 23,511.12 44,270.51 57,531.02
Zhejiang 46,904.76 1764.27 14,586.84 26,566.60 28,782.79
Anhui 51,712.11 1261.00 8993.78 15,337.90 23,300.02
Fujian 46,728.42 909.65 9505.96 20,581.74 20,043.12
Jiangxi 36,912.06 867.30 6257.06 10,939.83 17,535.92
Shandong 110,415.25 2116.70 31,515.23 28,310.92 78,277.87
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 19 of 21
Energy
Capital Stock Year-End GDP Carbon
Consumption
Industry DMU (100 Million Employment (100 Million Emissions
(10,000 Tons of
RMB) (10,000 People) RMB) (10,000 Tons)
Standard Coal)
Henan 66,301.25 1919.00 12,991.97 23,605.79 34,005.57
Hubei 52,501.13 841.00 9570.16 19,098.62 19,360.87
Hunan 42,405.87 810.04 7294.89 14,946.98 16,298.45
Guangdong 61,762.01 2471.62 19,156.09 43,546.43 38,158.48
Guangxi 23,448.31 492.00 20,749.68 7077.43 51,485.34
Hainan 2211.97 223.18 1209.50 1099.03 2923.80
Chongqing 26,747.95 434.06 4745.99 9496.84 10,378.17
Secondary
Sichuan 39,316.51 1334.70 11,205.84 17,365.33 17,497.41
industry
Guizhou 9762.50 376.07 4840.01 6058.45 10,696.94
Yunnan 15,193.68 426.80 7691.57 7961.58 12,485.36
Shaanxi 1627.87 330.00 7932.42 11,980.75 19,069.25
Gansu 21,560.75 233.70 4836.17 2862.42 9500.40
Qinghai 10,015.45 67.34 2989.38 1159.75 3525.22
Ningxia 5457.16 63.50 6212.28 1584.72 17,060.94
Xinjiang 5628.07 187.23 12,639.31 4795.50 31,797.70
Beijing 3845.40 1058.10 3709.73 29,542.53 5327.54
Tianjin 14,267.74 565.73 1305.52 8949.87 2734.29
Hebei 64,126.01 1460.52 3311.05 17,988.82 7617.26
Shanxi 24,430.66 839.60 2078.66 8748.87 4934.46
Inner
29,532.47 564.90 2365.04 8530.46 6408.66
Mongolia
Liaoning 32,789.99 1152.03 3415.71 13,200.44 6971.17
Jilin 27,067.56 687.90 1365.43 6304.68 3763.80
Heilongjiang 23,487.59 905.90 2419.36 6815.03 6203.85
Shanghai 6831.78 999.73 4388.84 27,752.28 8740.16
Jiangsu 74,062.87 1998.73 4928.86 51,064.73 10,012.72
Zhejiang 33,741.37 1704.01 3753.59 33,687.76 6703.15
Anhui 43,444.86 1776.10 2248.43 18,860.38 4816.71
Fujian 29,792.69 1322.76 2309.77 19,217.03 3921.21
Tertiary Jiangxi 39,892.46 1063.80 1783.07 11,760.11 4137.22
industry Shandong 86,292.23 2218.60 4900.96 37,640.17 10,351.40
Henan 76,920.30 2365.00 3508.91 26,018.01 7850.82
Hubei 40,491.86 1543.00 3812.62 22,920.60 6558.39
Hunan 34,773.71 1447.20 3481.25 21,158.19 6839.82
Guangdong 39,301.27 3378.02 7590.27 59,773.38 13,409.46
Guangxi 30,664.27 973.00 1733.38 10,771.97 2946.38
Hainan 1461.20 69.54 657.00 3129.54 1791.42
Chongqing 18,231.52 819.42 1734.91 12,557.51 3143.89
Sichuan 30,459.09 1838.30 3332.52 24,443.25 4030.67
Guizhou 11,228.78 598.42 2770.72 8430.33 5761.27
Yunnan 12,421.51 1168.75 2162.73 12,224.55 2944.92
Shaanxi 1582.38 948.00 2119.77 11,821.49 4377.22
Gansu 22,054.19 495.00 1153.90 4805.40 1987.67
Qinghai 11,561.99 157.46 513.07 1504.30 725.24
Ningxia 4879.75 173.70 403.43 1883.83 1003.21
Xinjiang 6096.11 658.42 1457.58 7019.86 3585.35
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2632 20 of 21
Region Province
Northern coastal Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong
Southern coastal Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan
Eastern coastal Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang
Middle Yangtze River Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan
Middle Yellow River Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shaanxi
Northwest Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang
Southwest Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan
Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang
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