NED UNIVERSITY OF

ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

 SPRING SEMESTER 2020.

 SE(ME).

 SECTIONS A, B, C, D ,E , F.

 ONLINE CLASSES.
1-1
 LECTURE#1
 MT-330(APPLIED PROBABILITY &
STATISTICS). APS.
 SE(ME).
 2+1(CREDIT HOURS).
Course Teacher,
Zakir Khan.
Assistant Professor
Dept. of Mathematics
1-2
 REFERENCE BOOKS
 ELEMENTARY STATISTICS BY ALAN G.
BLUMAN (8TH EDITION).

 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS FOR

ENGINEERS & SCIENTISTS BY
WALPOLE & MYERS YE. (9TH EDITION).

1-3
 COURSE CONTENT
 Introduction to statistics, types of data and
variables
 Frequency distribution and graphical
Representations
 Measures of central tendency
 Measures of variation
 Counting techniques
 Introduction to probability
1-4
 COURSE CONTENT
 Conditional probability
 Bayes’ theorem
 Random variables
 Discrete probability distributions
 Continuous probability distributions
 Regression and correlation analysis
 Tests of hypothesis one tail and two tail
tests
1-5
 What Is Statistics?

Chapter 1

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
LO1. Understand why we study statistics.
LO2. Explain what is meant by descriptive
statistics and inferential statistics.
LO3. Distinguish between a qualitative variable
and a quantitative variable.
LO4. Describe how a discrete variable is
different from a continuous variable.

1-7
 Learning Objective 1
Understand why we study
statistics.

Why Study Statistics?

1. Numerical information is everywhere
2. Statistical techniques are used to make decisions that
affect our daily lives
3. The knowledge of statistical methods will help you
understand how decisions are made and give you a
better understanding of how they affect you.
4. No matter what line of work you select, you will find
yourself faced with decisions where an understanding
of data analysis is helpful.

1-8
 LO1

What is Meant by Statistics?

Statistics is the science of

collecting the data, analyzing the
data,process the data and after
that to make inferences and in
last to reach some optimum
decisions .

1-9
 LO1

What is Meant by Statistics?

 In the more common usage, statistics refers
to numerical information
Examples: the average starting salary of college graduates, the number of
deaths due to covid 19 in Pakistan , the number of recovered patients due
to covid 19 in Pakistan , and the number of home runs hit by the Chicago
Cubs during the 2007 season.

 Often statistical information is presented in a

graphical form for capturing reader attention and
to portray a large amount of information.
1-10
 LO1

Formal Definition of Statistics

STATISTICS The science of collecting, organizing, presenting,
analyzing, and interpreting data to assist in making more effective
decisions.

Some examples of the need for data collection.

1. The marketing department at Colgate-Palmolive Co., a manufacturer
of soap products, has the responsibility of making recommendations
regarding the potential profitability of a newly developed group of
face soaps having fruit smells.
2. The United States government is concerned with the present
condition of our economy and with predicting future economic trends.
3. Managers must make decisions about the quality of their product or
service.

1-11
 LO1

Who Uses Statistics?

Statistical techniques are used

extensively by marketing, accounting,
quality control, consumers, professional
sports people, hospital administrators,
educators, politicians,
physicians,engineers etc...

1-12
 Learning Objective 2
Types of Statistics Explain what is meant
by descriptive
Descriptive Statistics statistics and
inferential statistics.
Inferential Statistics
Descriptive Statistics –it comprises those methods of
collecting and describing set of data so as to get
meaningful information's.

EXAMPLE 1: cgpa obtain by all students of SE(ME) class .(not descriptive stats)
cgpa obtain by all students of SE(ME) class in the subject
statistics.(descriptive statistics).

EXAMPLE 2: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly

earnings of production workers was $17.90 for April 2008.

1-13
 LO2

Types of Statistics – Descriptive Statistics

and Inferential Statistics

Inferential Statistics: It comprises those

methods concerned with the analysis of
subset of data leading to prediction
about entire set of data.
OR
A decision, estimate, prediction, or
generalization about a population, based
on a sample. eg testing of hypothesis etc
Note: In statistics the word population and sample have a broader
meaning. A population or sample may consist of individuals or
objects 1-14
 LO2

Population versus Sample

A population is a collection of all possible individuals, objects, or
measurements of interest.

A sample is a portion, or part, of the population of interest

1-15
 LO2

Why take a sample instead of studying

every member of the population?

1. Prohibitive cost of census

2. Time
3. Destruction of item being studied may be
required
4. Not possible to test or inspect all members
of a population being studied

1-16
 LO2

Usefulness of a Sample in
Learning about a Population
Using a sample to learn something about a
population is done extensively in business,
agriculture, politics, and government.

EXAMPLE: Television networks constantly monitor

the popularity of their programs by hiring Nielsen
and other organizations to sample the
preferences of TV viewers.

1-17
 Learning Objective 3
Distinguish between a
qualitative variable and a
Types of Variables quantitative variable.

A. Qualitative or Attribute variable - the

characteristic being studied is nonnumeric.
EXAMPLES: Gender, religious affiliation, type of automobile owned,
state of birth, eye color are examples.

B. Quantitative variable - information is reported

numerically.
EXAMPLES: balance in your checking account, minutes remaining in
class, or number of children in a family, no. of death due to covid-19 in
different cities .

1-18
 Learning Objective 4
Describe how a discrete
Discrete versus variable is different from a
continuous variable.
Continuous Variables
Quantitative variables can be classified as either discrete
or continuous.

A. Discrete variables: can only assume certain values

and there are usually “gaps” between values.
EXAMPLE: the number of bedrooms in a house, or the number of hammers sold at the local
Home Depot (1,2,3,…,etc).

B. Continuous variable can assume any value within a

specified range.
EXAMPLE: The pressure in a tire, the weight of a pork chop, or the height of students in a
class.

1-19
 LO4

Summary of Types of Variables

1-20
 LECTURE#1(b)
Describing Data:
Frequency Tables, Frequency
Distributions, and Graphic Presentation

Chapter 2

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 GOALS

1. Organize qualitative data into a frequency

table.
2. Present a frequency table as a bar chart.
3. Organize quantitative data into a frequency
distribution.
4. Present a frequency distribution for quantitative
data using histograms, frequency polygons,
and cumulative frequency polygons.

2
 Frequency Table

3
 Relative Class Frequencies

 Class frequencies can be converted to relative class

frequencies to show the fraction of the total number
of observations in each class.
 A relative frequency captures the relationship between
a class total and the total number of observations.

4
 Bar Charts

5
 Frequency Distribution

A Frequency
distribution is the
statistical method in
which we are going
to convert raw data
i.e ungrouped data
into the grouped
data.

6
 EXAMPLE – Constructing Frequency
Distributions: Quantitative Data

Ms. Kathryn Ball of AutoUSA

wants to develop tables, charts,
and graphs to show the typical
selling price on various dealer
lots. The table on the right
reports only the price of the 80
vehicles sold last month at
Whitner Autoplex.

7
 Constructing a Frequency Table -
Example

 Step 1: Decide on the number of classes.

A useful recipe to determine the number of classes (k) is
the “2 to the k rule.” such that 2k > n.
There were 80 vehicles sold. So n = 80. If we try k = 6, which
means we would use 6 classes, then 26 = 64, somewhat less
than 80. Hence, 6 is not enough classes. If we let k = 7, then 27
128, which is greater than 80. So the recommended number of
classes is 7.

 Step 2: Determine the class interval or width.

The formula is: i  (H-L)/k where i is the class interval, H is
the highest observed value, L is the lowest observed value,
and k is the number of classes.
($35,925 - $15,546)/7 = $2,911
Round up to some convenient number, such as a multiple of 10
or 100. Use a class width of $3,000

8
 Constructing a Frequency Table -
Example

 Step 3: Set the individual class limits

9
 Constructing a Frequency Table

 Step 4: Tally the

vehicle selling prices
into the classes.

 Step 5: Count the

number of items in
each class.

10
 Class Intervals and Midpoints

Class midpoint: A point that divides a class

into two equal parts. This is the average
of the upper and lower class limits.
Class frequency: The number of
observations in each class.
Class interval: The class interval is
obtained by subtracting the lower limit of
a class from the lower limit of the next
class.

11
 Class Intervals and Midpoints Example

Referring to the AutoUSA example

 Class midpoint: For the first class the lower class

limit is $15,000 and the next limit is $18,000. The class
midpoint is $16,500, found by:
($15,000 + $18,000)/2

 Class interval: The class interval of the vehicle

selling price data is $3,000. It is found by subtracting the
lower limit of the first class, $15,000, from the lower limit of
the next class:
($18,000 - $15,000)

12
 Relative Frequency Distribution

To convert a frequency distribution to a relative frequency

distribution, each of the class frequencies is divided by the
total number of observations.

13
 Graphic Presentation of a
Frequency Distribution

The three commonly used graphic forms

are:
 Histograms
 Frequency polygons
 Cumulative frequency distributions

14
 Histogram

Histogram
• A graph in which the classes are marked on the horizontal axis
and the class frequencies on the vertical axis.
• The class frequencies are represented by the heights of the
bars and the bars are drawn adjacent to each other.

15
 Histogram Using Excel

16
 Frequency Polygon

 A frequency polygon
also shows the shape
of a distribution and is
similar to a histogram.

 It consists of line
segments connecting
the points formed by
the intersections of the
class midpoints and the
class frequencies.

17
 Cumulative Frequency Distribution

18
 Cumulative Frequency Distribution

19
 End of Chapter 2

20
 Describing Data:
Measurement of central tendency and
Dispersion.

LECTURE # 2(a)

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 GOALS

1. Calculate the arithmetic mean, median, mode, and

geometric mean.
2. Explain the characteristics, uses, advantages, and
disadvantages of each measure of location.
3. Identify the position of the mean, median, and mode
for both symmetric and skewed distributions.
4. Compute and interpret the range, mean deviation,
variance, and standard deviation.
5. Understand the characteristics, uses, advantages, and
disadvantages of each measure of dispersion.
6. Understand Chebyshev’s theorem and the Empirical
Rule as they relate to a set of observations.
2
 Numerical Descriptive Measures

Measures of Location Measures of Dispersion

 Arithmetic Mean  Range
 Median  Mean Deviation
 Mode  Variance
 Geometric Mean  Standard Deviation

3
 CENTRAL TANDENCY

 To evaluate Avg. value or most centralized value

from given statistical data we use statistical method
called central tendency.
 It is also said to be measurement of location.
 Central tendency always a unique quantity .
 It is the best representative value of given data
(ungrouped Or Grouped Data).

4
 Population Mean

For ungrouped data, the population mean is the

sum of all the population values divided by the
total number of population values:

5
 EXAMPLE – Population Mean

6
 Sample Mean

 For ungrouped data, the sample mean

is the sum of all the sample values
divided by the number of sample
values:

7
 EXAMPLE – Sample Mean

8
 Properties of the Arithmetic Mean

9
 The Median

The Median is the midpoint of the values

after they have been ordered from the
smallest to the largest.

 There are as many values above the median as below

it in the data array.
 For an even set of values, the median will be the
arithmetic average of the two middle numbers.

10
 Properties of the Median

1. There is a unique median for each data set.

2. It is not affected by extremely large or small
values and is therefore a valuable measure of
central tendency when such values occur.
3. It can be computed for an open-ended
frequency distribution if the median does not
lie in an open-ended class.

11
 EXAMPLES - Median

The ages for a sample of five The heights of four basketball

college students are: players, in inches, are:
21, 25, 19, 20, 22 76, 73, 80, 75

Arranging the data in ascending Arranging the data in ascending

order gives: order gives:

19, 20, 21, 22, 25. 73, 75, 76, 80.

Thus the median is 21. Thus the median is 75.5

12
 The Mode

 The mode is the value of the observation

that appears most frequently.

13
 Example - Mode

14
 The Relative Positions of the Mean,
Median and the Mode

15
 The Geometric Mean
 Useful in finding the average change of percentages,
ratios, indexes, or growth rates over time.
 Has a wide application in business and economics
because we are often interested in finding the percentage
changes in sales, salaries, or economic figures, such as
the GDP, which compound or build on each other.
 Will always be less than or equal to the arithmetic mean.
 Defined as the nth root of the product of n values.
 The formula for the geometric mean is written:

16
 EXAMPLE – Geometric Mean

The return on investment earned by Atkins

construction Company for four successive
years was: 30 percent, 20 percent, 40 percent,
and 200 percent. What is the geometric mean
rate of return on investment?

GM  4 ( 1.3 )(1.2 )( 0.6 )( 3.0 )  4 2.808  1.294

17
 DISPERSION

 TO Evaluate variations among given obs.from given

data we use a statistical method called dispersion .
 It must be a unique quantity.
 As much as variation present in the given data , the
data is not consistent.
 All measures of dispersions always provide +ve
value.

18
 Dispersion

Why Study Dispersion?

 A measure of location, such as the mean or the median,
only describes the center of the data, but it does not tell
us anything about the spread of the data.
 For example, if your nature guide told you that the river
ahead averaged 3 feet in depth, would you want to
wade across on foot without additional information?
Probably not. You would want to know something about
the variation in the depth.
 A second reason for studying the dispersion in a set of
data is to compare the spread in two or more
distributions.
19
 Samples of Dispersions

20
 Types of Dispersion

 Range

 Mean Deviation

 Variance and Standard

Deviation

21
 EXAMPLE – Range

The number of cappuccinos sold at the Starbucks location in the

Orange Country Airport between 4 and 7 p.m. for a sample of 5
days last year were 20, 40, 50, 60, and 80. Determine the range
for the number of cappuccinos sold.

Range = Largest – Smallest value

= 80 – 20 = 60

22
 EXAMPLE – Mean Deviation

The number of cappuccinos sold at the Starbucks

location in the Orange Country Airport between 4
and 7 p.m. for a sample of 5 days last year were
20, 40, 50, 60, and 80. Determine the mean
deviation for the number of cappuccinos sold.

23
 EXAMPLE – Variance and Standard
Deviation

The number of traffic citations issued during the last five months in
Beaufort County, South Carolina, are 38, 26, 13, 41, and 22. What
is the population variance?

24
 EXAMPLE – Sample Variance

The hourly wages for

a sample of part-
time employees at
Home Depot are:
$12, $20, $16, $18,
and $19. What is
the sample
variance?

25
 The Empirical Rule

26
 COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE(C.V)

27
 Example:

 A study of the effects of smoking on sleep patterns is

conducted. The measure observed is the time. in
minutes, that it takes to fall asleep. These data are
obtained:
 Smokers: 69.3 56.0 22.1 47.6 53.2 45.1
52.7 34.4 43.8
 Non-smokers: 28.6 20.1 26.4 34.9 29.8 28.4
38.5 30.2 32.8

 Calculate coefficient of variance for both data and

interpret?
28
 APS

(MT-330)

LECTURE NO.3
COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE(C.V)

2
Example:
A study of the effects of smoking on sleep patterns is conducted. The
measure observed is the time. in minutes, that it takes to fall asleep.
These data are obtained:
Smokers: 69.3 56.0 22.1 47.6 53.2 45.1 52.7 34.4 43.8
Non-smokers: 28.6 20.1 26.4 34.9 29.8 28.4 38.5 30.2 32.8

Calculate coefficient of variance for both data and interpret?

3
SOLUTION:
𝜎 12.658
CV(SMOKERS)= *100= *100 = 26.856%
𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 47.133

𝜎 4.940
• CV(NON SMOKERS)= *100= *100 = 16.486%
𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 29.966
• Conclusion: since cv(non smokers) < cv(smokers)so we conclude that
non smokers is more efficient to take time to fall asleep.(less time
takes to fall asleep).

4
Finding the Mean for Grouped Data

1. Find mid point (𝑥) for each class boundary

2. Multiply each class frequency by its corresponding mid point
value and place the product in next column (𝑓 ∗ 𝑥)
3. Find the Sum of column (𝑓 ∗ 𝑥)
4. Divide the sum of 𝑓 ∗ 𝑥 by the sum of the frequencies
Example 1: The frequency distribution of weight (in grams)
of a certain commodity is given below. Calculate the mean.
Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency
410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
Class Interval Class Boundary Frequency (f) Mid Point (x) f*x
410 419 409.5 419.5 14 414.5 5803
420 429 419.5 429.5 20 424.5 8490
430 439 429.5 439.5 42 434.5 18249
440 449 439.5 449.5 54 444.5 24003
450 459 449.5 459.5 45 454.5 20452.5
460 469 459.5 469.5 18 464.5 8361
470 479 469.5 479.5 7 474.5 3321.5
200 88680
MEDIAN
The median is that value of the variable which divides the data
in two equal parts, one part comprising all the values greater
and the other, all the values less than median value.
• If the number of observations is odd, then the median is the
middle value after the observations have been arranged in
ascending or descending order of magnitude.

• In case of even number of observations median is obtained as

the arithmetic mean of the two middle observations after
they are arranged in ascending or descending order of
magnitude.
Finding the Median for Grouped Data

1. Prepare ‘less than’ cumulative frequency distribution

2. Find N/2.
3. See cumulative frequency just greater than N/2.
4. The corresponding class contains the median value and is
called the median class.
5. The value of median is now obtained by using the
interpolation formula
 ℎ N
Median = l + ( − C)
𝑓 2
where l is the lower limit (class boundary) of the median class

f is the frequency of the median class

h is the width of the class interval

N = Σ f, is the total frequency

C is the cumulative frequency preceding to the median class

Example 2: Consider the frequency distribution of example 1
Calculate the median.
Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency
410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
 10 200
Median = 439.5 + − 76
54 2
Median = 443.94 gm
Mode

The third measure of average is called the mode. The mode

is the value that occurs most often in the data set. It is
sometimes said to be the most typical case. A data set that
has only one value that occurs with the greatest frequency is
said to be unimodal.
Finding the Mode for Grouped Data

1. Find the class with the greatest frequency among all other
classes.
2. The corresponding class contains the modal value and is called
the modal class.
3. The value of mode is now obtained by using the interpolation
formula.
 𝑓𝑚 − 𝑓1
Mode = l + ∗ℎ
𝑓𝑚 − 𝑓1 +(𝑓𝑚 − 𝑓2 )
where l is the lower limit (class boundary) of the modal class

𝑓𝑚 is the frequency of the modal class

𝑓1 is the frequency preceding to the modal class

𝑓2 is the frequency following to the modal class

ℎ is the width of the class interval

Example 3: Consider the frequency distribution example 1.
Calculate the mode.
Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency
410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
 54−42
Mode = 439.5 + ∗ 10
54−42 +(54−45)
Mode = 445.21 gm
SKEWNESS

Skewness is ‘lack of symmetry’. In a symmetrical frequency

distribution which is unimodal, if the frequency curve or
histogram is folded about the mean. In a symmetrical
distribution equal distances on either side of the central value
will have same frequencies in both the tails, (left and right).
Example 4: Consider the frequency distribution of example 1
comment on the shape of distribution of weight.

Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency

410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
Solution: as we calculated in earlier examples 2, 5 and 9

Mean = 443.40 gm
Median= 443.94 gm
Mode= 445.21 gm

Since Mean < Median < Mode

therefore distribution of weight of a particular commodity is

left or negatively skewed.
Finding the Variance & Standard Deviation for Grouped Data
The procedure for finding the variance and standard deviation
for grouped data is similar to that for finding the mean for
grouped data, and it uses the midpoints (X) and frequency of
each class.
2 𝑓 (𝑋−𝜇)2
𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝜎 =
𝑓

𝑓 (𝑋−𝜇)2
standard deviation = 𝜎 =
𝑓
Example 5: Consider the frequency distribution of example 1.
Find variance and standard deviation.

Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency

410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
Class Interval Class Boundary Frequency (f) Mid Point (X) f (X - 443.4)2
410 419 409.5 419.5 14 414.5 11692.94
420 429 419.5 429.5 20 424.5 7144.2
430 439 429.5 439.5 42 434.5 3326.82
440 449 439.5 449.5 54 444.5 65.34
450 459 449.5 459.5 45 454.5 5544.45
460 469 459.5 469.5 18 464.5 8013.78
470 479 469.5 479.5 7 474.5 6770.47
200 42558
Pearson coefficient of skewness (PC)
A measure to determine the skewness of a distribution is
called the Pearson coefficient of skewness (PC). The formula is

The values of the coefficient usually range from -3 to +3. When

the distribution is symmetric, the coefficient is zero; when the
distribution is positively skewed, it is positive; and when the
distribution is negatively skewed, it is negative.
Example 6: Consider the frequency distribution of example 1.
Calculate and interpret coefficient of skewness.

Weight in grams (Class Interval) Frequency

410—419 14
420—429 20
430—439 42
440—449 54
450—459 45
460—469 18
470—479 7
Solution: Pearson coefficient of skewness (PC)

as we calculated in earlier examples 2, 5 and 25

Mean = 443.40 gm, Median= 443.94 gm, Std. Dev.= 14.58 gm
The coefficient of skewness can range from -3
up to 3.
• A value near -3, such as -2.57, indicates considerable negative
skewness.
• A value near +3, such as +2.57, indicates considerable positive
skewness.
• A value such as 1.63 indicates moderate positive skewness.
• A value such as -1.63 indicates moderate negative skewness.
• A value of 0, which will occur when the mean and median are equal,
indicates the distribution is symmetrical and that there is no
skewness present.
Conclusion:
• Since in above example Pearson coefficient of skewness (PC)= -0.11 so
we conclude that the shape of dist. Is moderate negative skewness.
•
……………END………….
 APS

(MT-330)

LECTURE NO.4

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 Probability Concepts

Counting technique

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 GOALS

1. Define probability.
2. Describe the classical, empirical, and subjective
approaches to probability.
3. Explain the terms experiment, event, outcome,
permutations, and combinations.
4. Define the terms conditional probability and joint
probability.
5. Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition
and rules of multiplication.
6. Conditional probability and beye’s rule of conditional
probability.

3
 Permutation :

4
 Permutation(theorem).

A permutation is any arrangement of r

objects from n possible objects. The
order of arrangement is important in
permutations.

5
 Solve above example by theorem.

6
 Permutation Example - Example

Three electronic parts are to be assembled into

a plug-in unit for a television set. The parts
can be assembled in any order. In how many
different ways can they be assembled?

n! 3! 3! 6
n Pr     6
(n  r )! (3  3)! 0! 1

7
 Theorem #2:

8
 Example :

9
 Example :

 How many different letter arrangements can

be made from the letters in the word
STATISTICS?
 Solution : Using theorem we have:
 S=n1=3 , T=n2=3 , A=n3=1, I=n4=2 ,C=n5=1
 No.of ways will be:

10
 Combination:

 A combination is the number of ways to

choose r objects from a group of n objects
without regard to order.

11
 Example :

12
 Difference b/w permutation &
combination:
permutation combination
 

13
 Combination – Another Example:

 There are 12 players on the Carolina Forest

High School basketball team. Coach
Thompson must pick five players among the
twelve on the team to comprise the starting
lineup. How many different groups are
possible?

12!
12 C5   792
5!(12  5)!
14
 Example:

15
 Definitions

A probability is a measure of the likelihood that

an event in the future will happen. It can only
assume a value between 0 and 1.
 A value near zero means the event is not
likely to happen.
 A value near one means it is likely.

16
 Definitions continued

 An experiment is a process that leads

to the occurrence of one and only one
of several possible observations.
 An outcome is a particular result of an
experiment.
 An event is a collection of one or more
outcomes of an experiment.

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 Classical Probability

18
 Classical Probability - Example

Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the

probability of the event “an even number of spots appear face
up”?

The possible outcomes are:

There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in

the collection of six equally likely possible outcomes.

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20
 Mutually Exclusive and Independent
Events

21
 Empirical Probability - Example

On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle

Columbia exploded. This was the
second disaster in 113 space missions
for NASA.
On the basis of this information, what is the
probability that a future mission is
successfully completed?

Number of successful flights

Probabilit y of a successful flight 
Total number of flights
111
  0.98
113
22
 Rules of Addition

23
 Addition Rule - Example

What is the probability that a card chosen at

random from a standard deck of cards will be
either a king or a heart?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52
= 16/52, or .3077
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 The Complement Rule

The complement rule is used to

determine the probability of an
event occurring by subtracting
the probability of the event not
occurring from 1.
OR

25
 Example:

26
 End

27
 APS

(MT-330)

LECTURE NO.5

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 Example:

2
 Example:

3
 Solution:

4
 Solution:

5
 Conditional Probability

A conditional probability is the

probability of a particular event
occurring, given that another event
has occurred.
The probability of the event A given
that the event B has occurred is
written P(A|B).

6
 Formula:

7
 Example:

8
 Special Rule of Multiplication

9
 Example:

10
 Example (circuit diagram):

11
 Solution:

12
 (b).solution:

13
 General Rule of Multiplication

The general rule of multiplication is used to find the joint

probability that two events will occur.
Use the general rule of multiplication to find the joint
probability of two events when the events are not
independent.
It states that for two events, A and B, the joint probability that
both events will happen is found by multiplying the
probability that event A will happen by the conditional
probability of event B occurring given that A has occurred.

OR P(A and B)= P(B)P(A/B)

14
 Contingency Tables - Example

A sample of executives were surveyed about their loyalty to their company.

One of the questions was, “If you were given an offer by another
company equal to or slightly better than your present position, would
you remain with the company or take the other position?”
The responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified
with their length of service with the company.

What is the probability of randomly selecting an executive who is loyal to

the company (would remain) and who has more than 10 years of
service?
15
 Contingency Tables - Example

16
 EXAMPLE:

17
 Generalized conditional probability:

18
 Proof:

19
 EXAMPLE:

20
 BAYES ‘ RULE OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:

21
 EXAMPLE:

22
 EXAMPLE:

23
 End

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