Question Bank Module 5
Question Bank Module 5
Question Bank Module 5
1. Interacting groups
One of the most common forms of group decision making is an interacting group. It is a
decision-making group in which the member only discusses, argue about and agree on
the best alternative. The group arrives at a decision after discussing the pros and cons of
various alternatives. An advantage of this method is that the interaction between people
brings forth many new ideas and improves understanding between members of the
group. A major disadvantage of this form of group decision making is that political
factors can influence it to a great extent. It fosters group dynamics that tend to limit the
creative process.
2. Delphi groups
Members with expertise and relevant information concerning an issue are selected to
make the decision regarding that issue. Questionnaires are sent to the group members
who record their answers in writing. The group members do not meet face-to-face.
Replies of all the members to the questionnaires are summarised and feedback to them
are sent for review. They are asked to make the decisions again in view of the additional
information. This process is repeated until a satisfactory decision is made. This
technique is mostly used for the decisions relating to demand forecast, project market
trends, identify future problems, predict the future state of finance, production etc.
3. Nominal groups
It motivates individual creativity. Members form the group for namesake and operate
independently, originate ideas for solving the problem on their own, in silence and in
writing. Members do not communicate well with each other so that strong personality
domination is evaded. The group coordinator either collects the written ideas or writes
them on a large blackboard so that each member of the group can see what the ideas
are. These ideas are further discussed one by one in turn and each participant is
motivated to comment on these ideas in order to clarify and improve them. After all
these ideas have been discussed, they are evaluated for their merits and drawbacks and
each actively participating member is needed to vote on each idea and allot it a rank on
the basis of priority of each alternative solution. The idea with the highest cumulative
ranking is selected as the final solution to the problem.
Question 4. What are the various techniques of decision making?
Answer 4. The various techniques of decision making are:
1. Marginal Analysis:
This technique is used in decision-making to figure out how much extra output will
result if one more variable (e.g. raw material, machine, and worker) is added. In his
book, ‘Economics’, Paul Samuelson defines marginal analysis as the extra output that
will result by adding one extra unit of any input variable, other factors being held
constant. Marginal analysis is particularly useful for evaluating alternatives in the
decision-making process.
2. Financial Analysis:
This decision-making tool is used to estimate the profitability of an investment, to
calculate the payback period (the period taken for the cash benefits to account for the
original cost of an investment), and to analyze cash inflows and cash outflows.
Investment alternatives can be evaluated by discounting the cash inflows and cash
outflows (discounting is the process of determining the present value of a future
amount, assuming that the decision-maker has an opportunity to earn a certain return
on his money).
3. Break-Even Analysis:
This tool enables a decision-maker to evaluate the available alternatives based on price,
fixed cost and variable cost per unit. Break-even analysis is a measure by which the
level of sales necessary to cover all fixed costs can be determined. Using this technique,
the decision-maker can determine the break-even point for the company as a whole, or
for any of its products. At the break-even point, total revenue equals total cost and the
profit is nil.
4. Ratio Analysis:
It is an accounting tool for interpreting accounting information. Ratios define the
relationship between two variables. The basic financial ratios compare costs and
revenue for a particular period. The purpose of conducting a ratio analysis is to
interpret financial statements to determine the strengths and weaknesses of a firm, as
well as its historical performance and current financial condition.
Operations Research Techniques:
One of the most significant sets of tools available for decision-makers is operations
research. An operation research (OR) involves the practical application of quantitative
methods in the process of decision-making. When using these techniques, the decision-
maker makes use of scientific, logical or mathematical means to achieve realistic
solutions to problems. Several OR techniques have been developed over the years.
1. Linear Programming:
Linear programming is a quantitative technique used in decision-making. It involves
making an optimum allocation of scarce or limited resources of an organization to
achieve a particular objective. The word ‘linear’ implies that the relationship among
different variables is proportionate. The term ‘programming’ implies developing a
specific mathematical model to optimize outputs when the resources are scarce. In
order to apply this technique, the situation must involve two or more activities
competing for limited resources and all relationships in the situation must be linear.
2. Waiting-line Method:
This is an operations research method that uses a mathematical technique for balancing
services provided and waiting lines. Waiting lines occur whenever the demand for the
service exceeds the service facilities. Since a perfect balance between demand and
supply cannot be achieved, either customers will have to wait for the service (excess
demand) or there may be no customers for the organization to serve (excess supply).
When the queue is long and the customers have to wait for a long duration, they may get
frustrated. This may cost the firm its customers. On the other hand, it may not be
feasible for the firm to maintain facilities to provide quick service all the time since the
cost of idle service facilities have to be borne by the company. The firm, therefore, has to
strike a balance between the two. The queuing technique helps to optimize customer
service on the basis of quantitative criteria. However, it only provides vital information
for decision-making and does not by itself solve the problem. Developing queuing
models often requires advanced mathematical and statistical knowledge.
3. Gaming Theory:
This is a systematic and sophisticated technique that enables competitors to select
rational strategies for attainment of goals. Game theory provides many useful insights
into situations involving competition. This decision-making technique involves selecting
the best strategy, taking into consideration one’s own actions and those of one’s
competitors. The primary aim of game theory is to develop rational criteria for selecting
a strategy. It is based on the assumption that every player (a competitor) in the game
(decision situation) is perfectly rational and seeks to win the game.
4. Simulation:
This technique involves building a model that represents a real or an existing system.
Simulation is useful for solving complex problems that cannot be readily solved by other
techniques. In recent years, computers have been used extensively for simulation. The
different variables and their interrelationships are put into the model. When the model
is programmed through the computer, a set of outputs is obtained. Simulation
techniques are useful in evaluating various alternatives and selecting the best one.
Simulation can be used to develop price strategies, distribution strategies, determining
resource allocation, logistics, etc.
5. Decision Tree:
This is an interesting technique used for analysis of a decision. A decision tree is a
sophisticated mathematical tool that enables a decision-maker to consider various
alternative courses of action and select the best alternative. A decision tree is a
graphical representation of alternative courses of action and the possible outcomes and
risks associated with each action. In this technique, the decision-maker traces the
optimum path through the tree diagram. In the tree diagram the base, known as the
‘decision point,’ is represented by a square. Two or more chance events follow from the
decision point. A chance event is represented by a circle and constitutes a branch of the
decision tree. Every chance event produces two or more possible outcomes leading to
subsequent decision points.
Question 5. What is the limitation of rational decision making?
Answer: The following are the limitation of rational decision making:
It is very difficult for mangers to be completely rational in their decision making
since decisions are taken keeping the future in mind, and the future is very
uncertain.
• It is very difficult to determine all the alternative courses of action that might be
followed to accomplish a goal.
• Rational decision making becomes almost an impossible task when one has to
explore areas which have been ventured into before
• In most cases, all possible alternatives generated cannot be thoroughly analysed,
even with sophisticated analytical techniques and computers
• Even though the decision maker strives to be completely rational, sometimes
limitations of information, time and certainty, curb rationality
• Sometimes, managers allow their risk-avoiding tendency to disrupt their rational
decision-making process.
MIS DSS
An information system that evaluates, An information system that supports business
analyses and processes an organisation’s or organisational decision-making activities
data to produce meaningful and useful
information based on which the
management can take right decisions
Uses a large volume of data as the input and Uses a low volume of data as the input and
gives a summarised report as the output gives a decision analysis as the output
Used by middle and low-level management Used by senior managers and analysts