Obtain the linear and exponential trend forecast.

Compare the results with the methods available in Crystal

Ball use MAPE for the comparison.
Date Demand LINEAL EXPONENCIAL MAPE LINEAL
1 Jan-11 15.5 -2.8726 19.83220045804 1.18532903226
2 Feb-11 17.8 -1.5109 20.21463612108 1.08488202247
3 Mar-11 18.1 -0.1492 20.60444650971 1.00824309392
4 Apr-11 20.5 1.2125 21.00177383499 0.94085365854
5 May-11 21.3 2.5742 21.40676305031 0.87914553991
6 Jun-11 19.8 3.9359 21.81956190428 0.80121717172
7 Jul-11 20.5 5.2976 22.24032099461 0.7415804878
8 Aug-11 22.3 6.6593 22.66919382311 0.70137668161
9 Sep-11 22.9 8.021 23.10633685162 0.64973799127
10 Oct-11 21.1 9.3827 23.55190955915 0.55532227488
11 Nov-11 22 10.7444 24.0060745 0.51161818182
12 Dec-11 22.8 12.1061 24.46899736314 0.46903070175
13 Jan-12 20.4 13.4678 24.94084703258 0.33981372549
14 Feb-12 20.8 14.8295 25.42179564904 0.28704326923
15 Mar-12 22.2 16.1912 25.91201867272 0.27066666667
16 Apr-12 24.1 17.5529 26.41169494731 0.27166390041
17 May-12 25.5 18.9146 26.92100676525 0.25825098039
18 Jun-12 25.9 20.2763 27.44013993425 0.21713127413
19 Jul-12 26.1 21.638 27.96928384502 0.17095785441
20 Aug-12 27.5 22.9997 28.50863154043 0.16364727273
21 Sep-12 25.8 24.3614 29.0583797859 0.05575968992
22 Oct-12 29.8 25.7231 29.61872914116 0.13680872483
23 Nov-12 27.4 27.0848 30.1898840335 0.01150364964
24 Dec-12 29.7 28.4465 30.77205283226 0.04220538721
25 Jan-13 26.9 29.8082 31.3654479249 0.10811152416
26 Feb-13 29.4 31.1699 31.97028579445 0.06020068027
27 Mar-13 29.9 32.5316 32.58678709854 0.08801337793
28 Apr-13 32.4 33.8933 33.21517674984 0.04608950617
29 May-13 33.3 35.255 33.85568399815 0.05870870871
30 Jun-13 34.5 36.6167 34.50854251402 0.06135362319
31 Jul-13 34.8 37.9784 35.17399047401 0.09133333333
32 Aug-13 39.1 39.3401 35.85227064756 0.00614066496
33 Sep-13 39 40.7018 36.54363048559 0.04363589744
34 Oct-13 36.5 42.0635 37.24832221076 0.15242465753
35 Nov-13 37.5 43.4252 37.96660290946 0.15800533333
36 Dec-13 39.7 44.7869 38.69873462564 0.12813350126
37 Jan-14 36 46.1486 39.44498445639 0.28190555556
38 Feb-14 39 47.5103 40.2056246494 0.21821282051
39 Mar-14 42.2 48.872 40.98093270224 0.1581042654
40 Apr-14 44.3 50.2337 41.77119146364 0.13394356659
41 May-14 46.6 51.5954 42.57668923668 0.10719742489
42 Jun-14 46.1 52.9571 43.39771988391 0.14874403471
43 Jul-14 48.5 54.3188 44.23458293465 0.11997525773
44 Aug-14 52.6 55.6805 45.08758369418 0.05856463878
45 Sep-14 52.2 57.0422 45.95703335517 0.09276245211
46 Oct-14 50.8 58.4039 46.84324911119 0.14968307087
47 Nov-14 51.9 59.7656 47.74655427244 0.15155298651
48 Dec-14 55.1 61.1273 48.6672783837 0.10938838475
49 Jan-15 52.1 62.489 49.60575734453 0.1994049904
50 Feb-15 53.1 63.8507 50.56233353187 0.2024613936
51 Mar-15 56.5 65.2124 51.53735592486 0.15420176991
52 Apr-15 58.4 66.5741 52.53118023226 0.13996746575
53 May-15 61.7 67.9358 53.54416902212 0.10106645057
54 Jun-15 61 69.2975 54.57669185413 0.13602459016
55 Jul-15 65.5 70.6592 55.62912541438 0.07876641221
56 Aug-15 71 72.0209 56.70185365284 0.01437887324
57 Sep-15 68.1 73.3826 57.79526792339 0.0775712188
58 Oct-15 67.5 74.7443 58.90976712662 0.10732296296
59 Nov-15 68.8 76.106 60.04575785534 0.10619186047
60 Dec-15 68.1 77.4677 61.20365454293 0.13755800294
61 Jan-16 64.4 78.8294 62.38387961453 0.22405900621
62 Feb-16 68.1 80.1911 63.58686364113 0.17754919236
63 Mar-16 68.5 81.5528 64.81304549667 0.19055182482
64 Apr-16 72.3 82.9145 66.06287251816 0.14681189488
65 May-16 74.1 84.2762 67.33680066885 0.13733063428
66 Jun-16 77.6 85.6379 68.63529470461 0.10358118557
67 Jul-16 79.9 86.9996 69.95882834344 0.08885607009
68 Aug-16 86.7 88.3613 71.30788443832 0.01916147636
69 Sep-16 84.4 89.723 72.68295515338 0.06306872038
70 Oct-16 81.4 91.0847 74.08454214341 0.11897665848
71 Nov-16 85.1 92.4464 75.51315673691 0.0863266745
72 Dec-16 81.7 93.8081 76.96932012261 0.14820195838
73 Jan-17 82.3 95.1698 78.45356353962 0.15637667072
74 Feb-17 83.6 96.5315 79.96642847125 0.15468301435
75 Mar-17 85.5 97.8932 81.50846684253 0.1449497076
76 Apr-17 91 99.2549 83.08024122158 0.09071318681
77 May-17 92.1 100.6166 84.68232502485 0.09247122693
78 Jun-17 95.8 101.9783 86.31530272629 0.06449164927
79 Jul-17 98.3 103.34 87.97977007061 0.0512716175
80 Aug-17 102.2 104.7017 89.67633429061 0.02447847358
81 Sep-17 101.5 106.0634 91.40561432869 0.04495960591
82 Oct-17 98.5 107.4251 93.16824106268 0.09061015228
83 Nov-17 101.1 108.7868 94.96485753599 0.07603165183
84 Dec-17 102.5 110.1485 96.7961191922 0.0746195122
85 Jan-18 102.7 111.5102 98.66269411419 0.08578578384
86 Feb-18 102.2 112.8719 100.5652632679 0.10442172211
 87 Mar-18 104.7 114.2336 102.5045207505 0.09105635148
88 Apr-18 108.9 115.5953 104.4811740443 0.06148117539
89 May-18 112.2 116.957 106.4959442739 0.04239750446
90 Jun-18 109.7 118.3187 108.5495664701 0.07856608933
91 Jul-18 113.5 119.6804 110.6427898375 0.05445286344
92 Aug-18 120.4 121.0421 112.7763780281 0.00533305648
93 Sep-18 124.6 122.4038 114.95110942 0.01762600321
94 Oct-18 116.7 123.7655 117.167777401 0.06054413025
95 Nov-18 120.6 125.1272 119.4271906583 0.03753897181
96 Dec-18 124.9 126.4889 121.7301734736 0.0127213771
97 Jan-19 122.2 127.8506 124.0775660236 0.0462405892
98 Feb-19 121.4 129.2123 126.4702246865 0.06435172982
99 Mar-19 125.6 130.574 128.9090223547 0.03960191083
100 Apr-19 129.7 131.9357 131.394848753 0.01723747109
101 May-19 133.6 133.2974 133.9286107634 0.00226497006
102 Jun-19 137.5 134.6591 136.5112327556 0.02066109091
103 Jul-19 143 136.0208 139.1436569247 0.04880559441
104 Aug-19 149 137.3825 141.8268436344 0.07796979866
105 Sep-19 149.9 138.7442 144.5617717679 0.07442161441
106 Oct-19 139.5 140.1059 147.3494390846 0.00434336918
107 Nov-19 147.7 141.4676 150.1908625845 0.04219634394
108 Dec-19 154.7 142.8293 153.0870788786 0.07673367809
109 Jan-20 145.8 144.191 156.0391445678 0.01103566529
110 Feb-20 144.4 145.5527 159.0481366279 0.00798268698
111 Mar-20 145.2 146.9144 162.1151528027 0.01180716253
112 Apr-20 148.6 148.2761 165.2413120043 0.00217967699
113 May-20 153.7 149.6378 168.4277547216 0.02642940794
114 Jun-20 157.9 150.9995 171.6756434361 0.04370170994
115 Jul-20 169.7 152.3612 174.9861630461 0.10217324691
116 Aug-20 184.2 153.7229 178.3605212989 0.16545656895
117 Sep-20 163.2 155.0846 181.7999492316 0.04972671569
118 Oct-20 155.4 156.4463 185.3057016201 0.00673294723
119 Nov-20 168.9 157.808 188.8790574368 0.06567199526
120 Dec-20 178.3 159.1697 192.5213203171 0.107292765
121 Jan-21 170 160.5314 196.2338190356 0.05569764706
122 Feb-21 176.3 161.8931 200.0179079899 0.08171809416
123 Mar-21 174.2 163.2548 203.8749676956 0.06283122847
124 Apr-21 176.1 164.6165 207.8064052894 0.06521010789
125 May-21 185.3 165.9782 211.8136550425 0.1042730707
126 Jun-21 182.7 167.3399 215.8981788844 0.08407279693
127 Jul-21 197 168.7016 220.0614669353 0.14364670051
128 170.0633 224.3050380506 16.437%
129 171.425 228.6304403745
130 172.7867 233.0392519051
131 174.1484 237.5330810697
132 175.5101 242.1135673119
133 176.8718 246.7823816899
134 178.2335 251.5412274856
135 179.5952 256.3918408261
 ALPHA 0.619926372
sults with the methods available in Crystal BETA 0.039263803
arison. SE DOBLE
MAPE EXPONENCIAL
0.279496803744324 Nivel Tendencia Pronostico Error
0.135653714667156 15.5 0 15.5 2.3
0.138367210481258 16.92583066 0.055983533 16.98181419 1.11818581114
0.0244767724387493 17.67500706 0.083200922 17.75820798 2.74179201655
0.00501234978001305 19.45791716 0.149937967 19.60785513 1.69214487195
0.101998075973625 20.65686036 0.191125901 20.84798626 -1.0479862608
0.0848937070542915 20.19831194 0.165617217 20.36392916 0.13607084247
0.0165557768210819 20.44828306 0.168929272 20.61721233 1.68278766653
0.00901034286560138 21.66041679 0.209889446 21.87030623 1.02969376771
0.116204244509282 22.50864055 0.234952879 22.74359343 -1.6435934327
0.0911852045455447 21.72468652 0.194946719 21.91963324 0.08036676216
0.0732016387341993 21.96945471 0.196902899 22.16635761 0.63364238747
0.22259054081289 22.55916924 0.212326178 22.77149542 -2.3714954165
0.222201713896281 21.30134287 0.154602398 21.45594526 -0.6559452649
0.167208048320614 21.0493075 0.138636253 21.18794375 1.01205625037
0.0959209521703763 21.81534411 0.163270377 21.97861449 2.12138551402
0.0557257555000568 23.29371731 0.214906315 23.50862363 1.99137637424
0.059464862326126 24.74313036 0.263377743 25.0065081 0.89349190021
0.0716200706904455 25.56040729 0.285125932 25.84553322 0.25446677643
0.0366775105611637 26.00328389 0.291319823 26.29460371 1.20539628822
0.126293790150979 27.04186066 0.320659972 27.36252063 -1.5625206315
0.00608291472601014 26.39387289 0.282627178 26.67650006 3.12349993656
0.101820585164375 28.61284005 0.358655249 28.9714953 -1.5714952959
0.0360960549583478 27.99728392 0.320404006 28.31768792 1.38231207565
0.166001781594728 29.17461963 0.354050403 29.52867004 -2.6286700376
0.0874246868862088 27.89908816 0.290066822 28.18915498 1.2108450198
0.0898591002857264 28.93978974 0.319539597 29.25932934 0.6406706626
0.0251597762297037 29.65649798 0.335133948 29.99163193 2.40836807498
0.0166872071516521 31.48464281 0.393755233 31.87839804 1.42160195921
0.000247609101999127 32.75968659 0.428357972 33.18804456 1.31195544208
0.0107468527012955 34.00136034 0.460291842 34.46165218 0.33834782237
0.0830621317759877 34.67140292 0.468527454 35.13993037 3.96006963047
0.062983833702742 37.59488197 0.564918189 38.15980016 0.84019984293
0.0205019783769256 38.6806622 0.585369213 39.26603141 -2.7660314106
0.0124427442521812 37.55129559 0.518042165 38.06933776 -0.5693377582
0.0252207902861966 37.71639027 0.504184104 38.22057437 1.47942562868
0.0956940126775719 39.13770933 0.54019431 39.67790364 -3.677903644
0.0309134525486604 37.39787418 0.450671683 37.84854586 1.151454135
0.0288878506578606 38.56236265 0.478698845 39.04106149 3.15893850595
0.0570837141389697 40.99937078 0.555589514 41.5549603 2.7450397048
0.0863371408438405 43.2566828 0.622405611 43.87908841 2.72091158927
 0.058617789936777 45.56585326 0.688634413 46.25448767 -0.1544876732
0.0879467436154134 46.15871669 0.68487408 46.84359077 1.65640922989
0.142821602772214 47.87044253 0.725192185 48.59563472 4.00436528093
0.119597062161507 51.07804636 0.822661105 51.90070746 0.29929253513
0.0778887970238312 52.0862468 0.829946085 52.91619289 -2.1161928854
0.0800278560223438 51.60430911 0.778436539 52.38274565 -0.4827456471
0.116746308825837 52.08347889 0.766686189 52.85016508 2.24983492197
0.0478741392604229 54.24489708 0.82144867 55.06634575 -2.9663457492
0.0477903289667583 53.22742979 0.749245837 53.97667563 -0.8766756283
0.0878344084094893 53.43320129 0.727906968 54.16110825 2.33889174531
0.100493489173614 55.61104893 0.784837152 56.39588608 2.00411391884
0.132185267064437 57.63828915 0.833618621 58.47190777 3.22809222682
0.105300133538873 60.47308728 0.912192538 61.38527981 -0.385279814
0.150700375352973 61.1464347 0.902814571 62.04924927 3.4507507325
0.201382342917773 64.18846065 0.986808144 65.17526879 5.82473120621
0.15131765163894 68.78617328 1.128585985 69.91475926 -1.8147592631
0.127262709235301 68.78974214 1.084413535 69.87415567 -2.3741556719
0.127241891637499 68.40235396 1.026625003 69.42897896 -0.6289789627
0.101267921542828 69.03905832 1.011315236 70.05037355 -1.9503735519
0.0313062171656891 68.84128555 0.963841843 69.80512739 -5.4051273949
0.0662721932286842 66.45434638 0.832277439 67.28662382 0.81337618224
0.0538241533332998 67.79085716 0.852075557 68.64293272 -0.1429327206
0.0862673234002958 68.55432496 0.848596479 69.40292144 2.89707856284
0.0912712460343772 71.19889684 0.919113303 72.11801014 1.98198985699
0.115524552775664 73.34669792 0.967356258 74.31405418 3.28594581806
0.124420170920697 76.35109865 1.04733837 77.39843702 2.50156297907
0.177533051461107 78.94922188 1.10822808 80.05744996 6.64255003697
0.138827545576051 84.17534191 1.269912177 85.44525408 -1.0452540847
0.0898704896386697 84.79727351 1.244469995 86.04174351 -4.6417435077
0.11265385738062 83.1642043 1.131486864 84.29569116 0.80430884063
0.0579030584748298 84.79430342 1.151064277 85.9453677 -4.2453676981
0.0467367735161815 83.3135523 1.047729197 84.3612815 -2.0612815006
0.04346377426738 83.08343874 0.997556231 84.08099497 -0.4809949696
0.0466845983330169 83.7828135 0.985848493 84.768662 0.73133800392
0.087030316246386 85.22203771 1.003649748 86.22568746 4.77431254097
0.080539359122197 89.18540971 1.119859698 90.30526941 1.79473059115
0.0990051907485604 91.41787023 1.163544637 92.58141487 3.21858513025
0.104987079647898 94.57670067 1.241887145 95.81858782 2.48141218286
0.122540760365863 97.35688067 1.302286372 98.65916704 3.54083295936
0.0994520755794238 100.8542228 1.388472607 102.2426954 -0.7426953774
0.0541295323585758 101.7822789 1.370394906 103.1526738 -4.6526738326
0.06068390172115 100.2683586 1.257145723 101.5255043 -0.4255043467
0.0556476176370333 101.261723 1.246788663 102.5085116 -0.0085116443
0.0393116444577206 102.5032351 1.246581484 103.7498165 -1.0498165359
0.015995467046433 103.0990076 1.22102825 104.3200358 -2.1200358296
 0.0209692382946973 103.0057697 1.169425164 104.1751949 0.52480512618
0.0405769141938115 104.5005354 1.182199271 105.6827347 3.21726531722
0.0508382863287766 107.6772023 1.260509654 108.937712 3.26228804767
0.010487087784232 110.9600903 1.33991592 112.3000063 -2.6000062659
0.0251736578197458 110.6881938 1.276630034 111.9648238 1.53517615156
0.0633191193678537 112.91652 1.313997245 114.2305173 6.16948272462
0.0774389292135214 118.0551423 1.464166568 119.5193089 5.08069111469
0.0040083753298331 122.6689633 1.587833977 124.2567973 -7.5567972717
0.00972478724436297 119.5721394 1.403896493 120.9760358 -0.3760358486
0.0253789153433238 120.7429213 1.39474353 122.1376648 2.76233516095
0.0153646974104838 123.8501093 1.461980609 125.3120899 -3.1120898627
0.0417646185046699 123.3828233 1.386230267 124.7690536 -3.3690535521
0.0263457193843888 122.6804884 1.304225258 123.9847137 1.61528633575
0.0130674537627082 124.9860723 1.343542404 126.3296147 3.37038533411
0.00245966140267063 128.4190054 1.42557983 129.8445852 3.75541475196
0.0071910345045814 132.1726659 1.516989129 133.689655 3.81034498092
0.0269674340932525 136.0517884 1.609735466 137.6615238 5.33847617515
0.0481419890309539 140.970986 1.739677535 142.7106635 6.28933647304
0.0356119295003948 146.6095891 1.892764178 148.5023532 1.3976467534
0.056268380535041 149.3687913 1.926783832 151.2955752 -11.795575159
0.0168643370647332 143.983187 1.639671668 145.6228587 2.07714128575
0.0104261223104099 146.9105334 1.690230672 148.600764 6.09923595242
0.0702273289971263 152.3818413 1.838690141 154.2205314 -8.4205314046
0.101441389389818 149.0004219 1.633728793 150.6341507 -6.2341507143
0.116495542718119 146.7694363 1.481985408 148.2514217 -3.0514216883
0.111987294780017 146.3597649 1.40771177 147.7674767 0.83252331799
0.0958214360547703 148.2835798 1.427975943 149.7115558 3.98844421512
0.0872428336675194 152.1840975 1.525057334 153.7091549 4.19084512909
0.031150047413453 156.3071703 1.627065299 157.9342356 11.7657644143
0.0317018387683061 165.2281432 1.913451849 167.1415951 17.0584049193
0.113970277154439 177.7165502 2.328664797 180.045215 -16.845214951
0.192443382368676 169.602422 1.918641035 171.521063 -16.121062996
0.118289268423629 161.5271909 1.526243613 163.0534345 5.84656548544
0.0797606299335224 166.6778746 1.668552915 168.3464276 9.95357244058
0.154316582562336 174.5169096 1.910829504 176.4277391 -6.4277391147
0.134531525751179 172.4430141 1.754374049 174.1973882 2.10261182545
0.170349986771605 175.5008527 1.805553023 177.3064057 -3.1064057177
0.180047730206517 175.3806629 1.729941036 177.1106039 -1.0106039278
0.143085024514551 176.4841039 1.705342263 178.1894462 7.11055383559
0.181708696685139 182.597466 1.878417884 184.4758839 -1.7758838902
0.117063283935513 183.3749666 1.835191686 185.2101583 11.7898416807
8.034%
 RMSE MAD MAPE
Suavizado exp 1 4.43 3.09 3.72%
LE

Error cuadrado
5.29
1.250339508 Chart Title
7.517423462 250
2.863354268
1.098275203 f(x) = 19.4566650113775 exp( 0.0191477159918076 x )
200 R² = 0.981646800045584
0.018515274
2.831774331 f(x) = 1.36172021466067 x − 4.23434570678663
150
1.060269255 R² = 0.963851593098475
2.701399372
0.006458816 100
0.401502675
5.62399051 50
0.430264191
1.024257854 0
4.500276499 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 12
3.965579864
0.798327776
0.06475334
1.452980212
2.441470724
9.756251854
2.469597465
1.910786674
6.909906166
1.466145662
0.410458898
5.800236785
2.02095213
1.721227082
0.114479249
15.68215148
0.705935776
7.650929765
0.324145483
2.188700191
13.52697521
1.325846625
9.978892484
7.535242981
7.403359877
0.023866441
2.743691537
16.0349413
0.089576022
4.478272328
0.23304336
5.061757176
8.799207104
0.768560157
5.470414596
4.0164726
10.42057942
0.148440535
11.90768062
33.92749362
3.293351183
5.636615155
0.395614535
3.803956992
29.21540216
0.661580814
0.020429763
8.393064199
3.928283793
10.79743992
6.257817338
44.12347099
1.092556101
21.54578279
0.646912711
18.02314689
4.248881425
0.231356161
0.534855276
22.79406024
3.221057895
10.35929024
6.157406421
12.53749805
0.551596424
21.64737379
0.181053949
7.24481E-05
1.102114759
4.494551919
 0.27542042
10.35079612
10.64252331
6.760032583
2.356765816
38.06251709
25.8134222
57.10518501
0.141402959
7.630495541
9.685103313
11.35052184
2.609149946
11.3594973
14.10313996
14.51872887
28.49932787
39.55575327
1.953416447
139.1355933
4.314515921
37.2006792
70.90534914
38.86463513
9.31117432
0.693095075
15.90768726
17.5631829
138.4332123
290.9891784
283.7612667
259.8886721
34.18232798
99.07360433
41.31583013
4.420976489
9.649756483
1.021320299
50.55997585
3.153763591
139.0003669
19.65383643

4.433264759
 ALPHA BETA
0.9461 1.6951 0.6199 0.0393
 Title

59918076 x )

678663

67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127

Tabla de métodos para ejercicios febrero 24.xlsx!Pronósticos
15/02/2023 creado a las 1:50 p. m.
(Los mejores métodos de cada serie se resaltan en negrita.)

Series - all -

Elementos de tabla
Métodos Rango
Promedio móvil doble 2
Promedio móvil simple 5
Suavizado exponencial doble 1
Suavizado exponencial simple 4
Tendencia desechada no estacional 3
RMSE MAD MAPE U de Theil Durbin-Watson Alfa Beta Orden Phi
4.5267 3.253 0.0335 0.9304761 1.288580548237 13
4.7063 3.379 0.0408 1 1.927116366568 1
4.4333 3.09 0.0372 0.9461227 1.695060926202 0.6199 0.0393
4.7062 3.379 0.0408 0.9999509 1.925766764394 0.999
4.5338 3.137 0.0377 0.9568172 2.127856718319 0.999 0.0259 0.999
George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George’s sailboats
during each of the past four seasons was as follows:

YEAR

a. Use dummy variables and run a regression in Excel to obtain the quarterly forecast
for next year. Compare the results with the methods available in Crystal Ball.

Use RMSE to compare with the methods in Crystal Ball

Year
winter 1400
spring 1500
summer 1000
1 Fall 600
winter 1200
spring 1400
summer 2100
2 Fall 750
winter 1000
spring 1600
summer 2000
3 Fall 650
winter 900
spring 1500
summer 1900
4 Fall 500
orge’s sailboats

ecast
 a m b te varianza
a 2 3 4 3 0.33333333
b 1 1.5 2 1.5 0.16666667
c 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.16666667
d 1.5 2 2.5 2 0.16666667
e 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.16666667
f 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.03333333

te total varianza z pro

ruta
9 1.03333333 0.98373875 0.83737801
Tabla de métodos para ejercicios febrero 24.xlsx!Pronósticos 2
15/02/2023 creado a las 2:00 p. m.
(Los mejores métodos de cada serie se resaltan en negrita.)

Series

Métodos
Aditivo de Holt-Winters
Aditivo estacional
Aditivo estacional de tendencia desechada
Multiplicativo de Holt-Winters
Multiplicativo estacional
Multiplicativo estacional de tendencia desechada
Promedio móvil doble
Promedio móvil simple
Suavizado exponencial doble
Suavizado exponencial simple
Tendencia desechada no estacional
- all -

Elementos de tabla
Rango RMSE MAD MAPE U de Theil Durbin-Watson
6 345.19 210.86 0.16513 0.4848277 1.894571373606
4 345.19 210.86 0.16513 0.4848266 1.894575398122
5 345.19 210.86 0.16513 0.4848266 1.894575399699
3 345.17 210.85 0.16511 0.4848167 1.894316763399
1 345.16 210.84 0.16511 0.484815 1.89432309868
2 345.16 210.84 0.16511 0.484815 1.894323100344
11 595.52 557.64 0.43531 0.86557 1.608886175285
10 560.73 517.19 0.40839 0.8155572 2.089157038141
7 520.41 457.15 0.35578 0.7757551 2.022168732386
9 528.68 456.41 0.34809 0.797868 1.954788753059
8 520.45 457.17 0.35577 0.7758021 2.022033929643
Alfa Beta Gamma Orden Phi
0.001 0.001 0.93225
0.001 0.93225
0.001 0.001 0.93225 0.001
0.001 0.001 0.93211
0.001 0.93212
0.001 0.001 0.93212 0.001
4
8
0.0107 0.999
0.017
0.0108 0.999 0.999
a.Compute a tracking signal from May through December. Use action limits of ± 4.

Aactual Demand Forecast Demand

May 100 100
June 80 104
July 110 99
August 115 101
September 105 104
October 110 104
November 125 105
December 120 109