Probability

1. Unintended pregnancies (exercise 10.
12, 4th ed Baldi & Moore)
Birth certificates show that approximately 9% of all births in the United States are to teen
mothers (ages 15-19), 24% to young-adult mothers (age 20-24), and the remaining 67% to
adult mothers (25-44). An extensive survey of live births examined pregnancy type, defining
an unintended pregnancy as one that was unwanted or mistimed by at least two years. They
survey found that “only 23% of births to teen mothers are intended, and 77% are unintended.
Among births to young adult women age 20-24, 50% are intended, and at ages 25-44, 75%
are intended”.
1.1 Express all the percentages cited using conditional probability notation. The sample space
is live births in the United States.
From the above information,
Probability of randomly selected mother is a Teen mother, P(T) = 0.09
Probability of randomly selected mother is a Young Adult mother, P(Y) = 0.24
Probability of randomly selected mother is a Adult mother, P(A) = 0.67
From above, P(T), P(Y), P(A) > 0, hence conditional probability is applicable.
Let I be the event of intended pregnancy & U be the event of unintended pregnancy.
Probability of Intended pregnancy to a teen mother, P(I|T) = 0.23
Probability of Intended pregnancy to a young adult mother, P(I|Y) = 0.50
Probability of Intended pregnancy to an adult mother, P(I|A) = 0.75

Probability of Unintended pregnancy to a teen mother, P(U|T) = 0.77
Probability of Unintended pregnancy to a young adult mother, P(U|Y) = 0.50
Probability of Unintended pregnancy to an adult mother, P(U|A) = 0.25
1.2 Draw a tree diagram representing the age group of the mother (teen, young-adult, adult)
and the pregnancy type (intended or unintended), for the live births in the United States.
Suggestion: Draw the tree, scan and upload.

1.3 What is the probability that any given birth in the United States is unintended? Use your
tree to elaborate your answer
Probability that any given birth is unintended = P ( T ) P (U|T ) + P ( Y ) P ( U|Y ) + P ( A ) P(U∨ A)
= (0.09*0.77) + (0.24+0.5) + (0.67*0.25) = 0.3568

2. Blood types (Exercise 10.30, 4th ed Baldi & Moore)
All human blood can be “ABO-typed” as O, A, B, or AB, but the distribution of the types
varies a bit among groups of people. Here are the distributions of blood types for a randomly
chosen person in China and in the United States:
2.1 Choose an American individual and a Chinese individual at random, independently of
each other. What is the probability that both have type O blood?
Let P(A) be American Individual with Type O blood = 0.45
P(B) be Chinese Individual with Type O blood = 0.35
Probability (both American & Chinese individual have type O blood) = P(A) x P(B)
= 0.35 x 0.45
= 0.1575
2.2 What is the probability that both have the same blood type?
Probability (both have the same blood type)
= P(both O) + P(both A) + P(both B) + P(both AB)
= (0.35*0.45) + (0.27*0.40) + (0.26*0.11) + (0.12*0.04)
= 0.1575 + 0.108 + 0.0286 + 0.0048
= 0.2989
3. Cancer detecting dogs (adapted from exercise 10.34, 4th ed Baldi & Moore)
Research has shown that specific biochemical markers are found exclusively in the breath of
patients with lung cancer. However, no lab test can currently distinguish the breath of lung
cancer patients from that of other subjects. Could dogs be trained to identify these markers in
samples of human breath, as they can be to detect illegal substances or to follow a person’s
scent? An experiment trained dogs to distinguish breath samples of control individuals by
using a food reward training method. After the training was complete, the dogs were tested
on new breath samples without any reward or clue using a double-blind, completely
randomized design. Here are the results for a random sample of 1286 breath samples:
3.1 Find the sensitivity of the test, P (positive test | disease): the test’s ability to correctly give
a positive result when a person tested has the disease.
P (positive test | disease):
True Positive
Sensitivity =
True Positive+ False Negative
From the above table,
True Positive = 564
False Negative = 4
564
Sensitivity = =0. 9929∨9 9.29 %
564+ 4
3.2 Find the specificity of the test, P (negative test | no disease): the test’s ability to correctly
give a negative result when a person tested does not have the disease.
P (negative test | no disease):
True Negative
Specificity =
True Negative+ False Positive
From the above table,
True Negative = 708
False Positive = 10
708
Sensitivity = =0. 9860∨9 8.60 %
708+10
3.3 For this special group, find the probability that a subject tested really has cancer, given
the test result is positive. This doesn’t apply to the entire US population. [No need to use
Bayes Rule, use your table to answer]
Probability that a subject tested really has cancer, given the test result is positive
True Positive 564

= = = 0.9825 or 98.25%
True Positive+ False Positive 564+10

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1. Unintended pregnancies (exercise 10.

12, 4th ed Baldi & Moore)

is live births in the United States.

From the above information,

Probability of randomly selected mother is a Teen mother, P(T) = 0.09

Probability of randomly selected mother is a Young Adult mother, P(Y) = 0.24

Probability of randomly selected mother is a Adult mother, P(A) = 0.67

Probability of Intended pregnancy to a teen mother, P(I|T) = 0.23

Probability of Intended pregnancy to a young adult mother, P(I|Y) = 0.50

Probability of Intended pregnancy to an adult mother, P(I|A) = 0.75

Probability of Unintended pregnancy to a young adult mother, P(U|Y) = 0.50

Probability of Unintended pregnancy to an adult mother, P(U|A) = 0.25

Suggestion: Draw the tree, scan and upload.

tree to elaborate your answer

Probability that any given birth is unintended = P ( T ) P (U|T ) + P ( Y ) P ( U|Y ) + P ( A ) P(U∨ A)

= (0.09*0.77) + (0.24+0.5) + (0.67*0.25) = 0.3568

chosen person in China and in the United States:

2.1 Choose an American individual and a Chinese individual at random, independently of

Let P(A) be American Individual with Type O blood = 0.45

P(B) be Chinese Individual with Type O blood = 0.35

Probability (both have the same blood type)

= P(both O) + P(both A) + P(both B) + P(both AB)

= (0.35*0.45) + (0.27*0.40) + (0.26*0.11) + (0.12*0.04)

= 0.1575 + 0.108 + 0.0286 + 0.0048

scent? An experiment trained dogs to distinguish breath samples of control individuals by

a positive result when a person tested has the disease.

P (positive test | disease):

From the above table,

True Positive = 564

P (negative test | no disease):

From the above table,

True Negative = 708

Bayes Rule, use your table to answer]

True Positive 564

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= (0.090.77) + (0.24+0.5) + (0.670.25) = 0.3568

= (0.350.45) + (0.270.40) + (0.260.11) + (0.120.04)