Interpolation Methods and Model Prediction

Sampling measurements made at discrete points, such as measurements of contaminant concentrations, can be used to
build a model for the whole site. Different methods are available to make models for contaminant concentrations at all
points within the site. Simple, more complex, and advanced interpolation methods can support these models, provided that
appropriate data requirements are met.
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Sample points and monitoring points are individual (discrete) points collected at a particular time and at a particular place
(point). Because all points in time and space cannot be sampled, values for nearby unsampled points are inferred based on
the data collected. Geospatial methods offer systematic approaches to fill in the gaps in between sampling locations. Before
interpolating or making predictions, an appropriate geospatial method must be selected based on the characteristics of the
available data and the project requirements. See Work Flow and Flow Charts for guidance on selecting methods. Many
different interpolation approaches can be used, ranging from simple methods that are easy to apply, to more complex or
advanced methods that require significant effort to estimate the parameters used by the method. Ideally, the interpolation
approach would be both easy-to-implement and accurate. Practitioners often must compromise, however, to find an
approach that is both useable and realistic.

Categories of Geospatial Interpolation Methods

The major geospatial methods can be grouped into three categories depending on their complexity: simple, more complex,
and advanced. These methods are presented in Table 3.
Table 3. Organizing geospatial interpolation methods

Simple More Complex Advanced

Description Mechanistic Regression methods with no spatial Extension of regression methods

methods with no correlation model. including a spatial correlation model.
statistical error Also known as geostatistical methods.
model

Data Requirements Works best with Works best when other predictor Works best when sufficient data are
larger data sets variables are available. available to estimate correlation model.

Statistical None Regression residuals are spatially Residuals after trend removal are
Assumptions uncorrelated and normally stationary and normally distributed
distributed (after transformation). (after transformation).

Provide Prediction None Yes. Prediction standard error or Yes. Prediction standard error or
Uncertainty variance provides measure of variance provides measure of
uncertainty. True uncertainty is uncertainty. True uncertainty is higher
higher when the residuals are because standard error does not
spatially correlated. include uncertainty from estimation of
model parameters.

Example Methods Inverse distance Parametric and nonparametric Kriging,

weighting (IDW), regression; conditional simulation*
natural neighbors, local linear regression;
Thiessen polygons splines and kernel methods

*Conditional simulation provides a set of possible interpolated values that can be used to estimate the probability
distribution of predictions at each location

Simple methods provide a quick, simple approach to modeling spatial data. First, simple methods are conceptually simpler
because they require almost no assumptions be made about the data or the variable to be mapped, only that the sampled
data relate to one another in space or time, or both. Second, these methods are computationally simpler, so that large data
sets can be efficiently mapped. Because the simple methods do not impose much structure on the data, they generally
require more data in order to produce a good interpolation. Third, these methods are statistically simpler because they do
not include a statistical error component that can be used to estimate the error in the predictions at unsampled locations.
In contrast, more complex and advanced methods make assumptions about the statistical distribution of a sampled
population and can provide estimates of prediction error. This error derives from the inability to sample everywhere, and
from the inability of the method to match the data. More complex methods include regression type methods, which are
based on statistical assumptions about the data but do not include an explicit representation of spatial correlation. See
GSMC-1, Section 5.5.1 for information about linear regression. The advanced methods, including kriging and conditional
simulation, are based on more stringent statistical assumptions and include an explicit model of spatial correlation. The
advanced methods are also commonly known as geostatistical methods.
The output of every geospatial interpolation method is the set of interpolated values for unsampled locations of interest. The
inputs to the method are the observed data. The method can be thought of as a mathematical equation that converts the
sampled inputs into the interpolated outputs. This equation or model of the data will be complicated in some cases, but the
mathematical details are handled by the software and do not need to be fully understood by the user. One way of thinking
about how the geospatial interpolation methods differ is to distinguish between the different components (spatial trend,
spatial correlation, error) that are represented within the methods. The different components for the categories of methods
are illustrated here:

Simple Method = spatial trend component

More Complex = spatial trend component + (secondary data component) + error

Method component

Advanced = spatial trend component + spatial correlation component +

Method error

Simple Methods ▼Read more

For simple methods, the model used to interpolate the sample data consists of only one component—a simple spatial trend
component. The spatial trend is calculated using a fixed formula or algorithm and represents the spatial average value of the
data. The spatial average estimate can be weighted, meaning that sample observations closer to the location being
estimated holds more weight than other, more distant, sample locations. Spatially weighted averages use a moving window
interpolator (for example, IDW, natural neighbor) to generate spatial estimates. In other cases, the average can represent an
area or volume based on boundaries defined by the user (for example, Voronoi polygons). Simple geospatial methods do not
make any assumptions about the distribution of the sampled data and provide no measure of uncertainty of the interpolated
values.

More Complex Methods ▼Read more

More complex methods are regression methods, which include spatial trend and error components. The spatial trend
component represents the local average of the data as a function of the spatial coordinates or location. The error component
allows the method to provide a measure of prediction uncertainty. Regression methods can also include an optional
component for secondary data (such as distance from a source, when the primary data are concentrations), which would
include additional explanatory variables that are correlated with the primary variable of interest.
For example, a polynomial regression model might be defined as follows:
Z = a1*x + a2*x^2 + b1*y + b2*y^2 + e
In this model, the parameters (a1, a2, b1, b2) are estimated from the data, and e is the error term, which is modeled as a
spatially uncorrelated random variable. There are many variations on the regression model. These models can be
categorized as parametric regression (global regression) or nonparametric regression (local regression). Global techniques
calculate predictions using the entire data set and fit the data to a parametric function, such as the polynomial given in the
example. Local techniques calculate predictions from the measured locations within subregions or neighborhoods, which are
smaller spatial areas within the larger study area. Local nonparametric regression methods are more flexible than global
methods and can represent the spatial trend of practically any process. Many local nonparametric regression methods are
based on different ways of combining simple functions to achieve a flexible and smooth function. These methods are called
nonparametric because they do not depend on the data fitting a particular predefined distribution, such as the normal
(Gaussian) distribution. Due to their flexibility, nonparametric regression methods are able to capture practically all of the
variation in the data, producing excellent interpolated maps.
Since spatial regression models include a noise or error term, they can quantify uncertainty in the model predictions similar
to a regular nonspatial regression model. In many cases, however, the predictions and estimates of uncertainty from spatial
regression models may not be exactly correct, because in regression models it is assumed that the noise or errors are not
spatially correlated. If the spatial trend component of the model has not captured all of the spatial correlation present in the
data, then the error term is spatially correlated. This residual correlation violates one of the assumptions of the regression
model that the noise or error terms are uncorrelated. As a result, the regression model tends to underestimate uncertainty
in the predictions.

Advanced Methods ▼Read more

Advanced methods are also known as geostatistical methods. In the geostatistics literature, spatial trend is often called drift.
The spatial trend component of the data model represents the overall trend over the area of interest. The spatial correlation
component represents the fluctuation around this trend. The error component includes both measurement error and
fluctuations at a scale that are too small to observe given the sample spacing (called microscale variation). There is no clear-
cut division between what is represented by the spatial trend component and spatial correlation component. One approach
might represent most of the data variation in the spatial trend component of the model, while another approach might use a
simple model for the spatial trend component and represent most of the data variation using the spatial correlation
component.
Interpolation using models of spatial dependence is referred to as kriging, after the South African mining engineer Danie
Krige. Kriging models can be thought of as spatial regression models that include an extra component to account for the
spatial dependence of the spatial correlation. The type of kriging used depends on the model used for the spatial trend:

Simple kriging: the spatial trend is assumed to be a known constant.

Ordinary kriging: the spatial trend is assumed to be an unknown constant estimated from the data.
Universal kriging: the spatial trend is modeled using a simple polynomial of the spatial coordinates (regression).

Usually, the purpose of geospatial modeling is to predict the value of a variable of interest at a set of points that have not
been sampled (called point prediction, or if kriging is being used, point kriging). In geostatistics, the term sample support is
used to describe the larger mass, length, area or time represented by a smaller sample or group of composite samples. Most
samples have point support. In some cases, however, the goal is to not to predict the variable at individual points, but rather
to predict a function of the variable (such as the average) over a set of points or an area. Calculating the average over a set
of areas using kriging is called block kriging. Block kriging allows a change from point support to block support.
If a nonlinear function of the predicted variable (such as the maximum) is of interest, or the area over which the variable
exceeds some prescribed value, then a method such as indicator kriging or conditional simulation may be appropriate.
Indicator kriging is a nonlinear, nonparametric form of kriging in which continuous variables are converted to binary
(indicator) variables. Because it is a nonparametric method, indicator kriging can handle distributions of any kind and can
handle nondetected concentrations. Conditional simulation is used to produce a series of randomly simulated predictions
that match both the data points and the geospatial model. Conditional simulation is the only method that attempts to
reconstitute the intrinsic heterogeneity of the sampled environment and can therefore provide a more robust measure of
overall uncertainty in generating spatial predictions.
Measures of Uncertainty ▼Read more
Regression and kriging methods can also provide a measure of uncertainty for each prediction called the prediction variance
or standard error. The prediction variance does not indicate the full extent of the uncertainty in the predictions because it
assumes that the geospatial model parameters are known perfectly, when in fact they must be estimated from the data. The
prediction variance is still useful, however, as a relative measure of uncertainty; it shows, for example, where additional data
collection would be most useful.
Almost all geospatial methods (except conditional simulation) have a smoothing effect, meaning that the predicted surface
is much smoother than the actual surface. As a result, the predictions tend to under-predict the high values and over-predict
the low values. One of the benefits of conditional simulation is that the simulated surfaces are not overly smooth, which is
particularly important when the focus of the investigation is on identifying values that are below or above a threshold.
More recent research in geostatistical prediction methods has focused on the development of methods that can account for
the additional prediction uncertainty that results from estimating the model parameters. These methods are generally
Bayesian methods, which assume that the model parameters are also random variables. These methods are extensions of
regression and kriging that are called hierarchical models or model-based geostatistics. Bayesian methods (Cressie and
Wikle 2011; Diggle and Ribeiro 2007) are not described in this document because these methods are rarely used for
remediation optimization.
Additional information is provided elsewhere in this guidance on sources of uncertainty and the measures of uncertainty for
the different geospatial methods.