Bank Efficiency and Non Performing Loans
Bank Efficiency and Non Performing Loans
Bank Efficiency and Non Performing Loans
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between non-performing loans and
bank efficiency in Malaysia and Singapore. To achieve the objective, cost efficiency was estimated
using the stochastic cost frontier approach assuming normal-gamma efficiency distribution
model proposed by Greene (1990). The cost efficiency scores were then used in the second
stage Tobit simultaneous equation regression to determine the effect of non-performing loans
on bank efficiency. The results indicate that there is no significant difference in cost efficiency
between banks in Singapore and Malaysia although banks in Singapore exhibit a higher average
cost efficiency score. The Tobit simultaneous equation regression results clearly indicate that
higher non-performing loan reduces cost efficiency. Likewise, lower cost efficiency increases
non-performing loans. The result also support the hypothesis of bad management proposed
by Berger and DeYoung (1992) that poor management in the banking institutions results in bad
quality loans, and therefore, escalates the level of non-performing loans.
Keywords: bank efficiency, problem loans, stochastic cost frontier, tobit regression
1. Introduction
The banking sector is still the primary form of financial intermediation in the Asian
and Pacific region, and as such is the largest conduit for the mobilization of domestic
savings, the main source of external capital to firms and the key player in the payment
system. Consequently, the development of an efficient banking sector is crucial for the
growth of the economies in the region. As liberalization of the banking sector around
the world continues apace, banking markets in different countries are now becoming
increasingly integrated. Moreover, foreign banks are allowed to set up branches in
other countries, subject to the regulations of the home country. Furthermore, banking
competition in the ASEAN region is expected to be more intense in the future with
* Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, College of Art and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia (zaini500@uum.
edu.my); Sok-Gee Chan, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya ([email protected]);
Sallahudin Hassan, College of Art and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia ([email protected])
1 ASEAN member countries are working towards the elimination of import duties on all products to
achieve the eventual objective of a free trade area. The AFTA Council agreed that the target dates
to achieve these objectives will be the year 2015 for the six original member countries (Brunei,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) and the year 2018 for the new
members of ASEAN.
2 To our knowledge, the only study on cross-country comparisons of banking efficiency in developing
countries is Karim (2001). However; there are quite a number of bank efficiency studies on
individual developing countries. Among others Bhattacharya, Lovell, and Sahay (1997) on India’s
commercial banks, Chaffai (1997) on Tunisia’s banking industry, and Oral and Yolalan (1990) on the
Turkish banking industry.
Issues of non-performing loans and cost efficiency are related in several important ways.
First, a number of researchers have found that failing banks tend to be located far from
the best practice frontier3 (e.g. Berger and Humphrey, 1992; Wheelock and Wilson,
1994). Thus, in addition to having high ratios of problem loans, banks approaching
failure also tend to have lower cost efficiency. A number of other studies have found
negative relationships between efficiency and problem loans even among banks that
do not fail (Kwan and Eisenbeis, 1995). A positive relationship between asset quality
and cost efficiency (DeYoung, 1997) suggests that the negative relationship between
problem loans and cost efficiency holds for the population of banks as well as for the
subset of failing banks.
Tsai and Huang (1999), by utilizing a translog cost function, examined the
relationship between management quality and cost efficiency within Taiwan’s banking
industry. They discovered that asset quality and cost efficiency are related; the
non-value-added activities of bad assets incur a negative consequence on the operating
performance.
In recent years, studies on bank efficiency have taken into account asset quality,
specifically non-performing loans. The omission of such a variable might lead to an
erroneous bank efficiency measure (Mester, 1996). This is particularly true since
a large proportion of non-performing loans may signal that banks use fewer resources
than usual in their credit evaluation and loans monitoring process. In addition,
non-performing loans lead to inefficiency in the banking sector as found by Altunbas
et al. (2000), Fan and Shaffer (2004) and Girardone et al. (2004). This is because
efficient banks are better at managing their credit risk as highlighted by Berger and
DeYoung (1997).
By taking into account risk and quality factors into the estimation of banks’ cost
efficiency in the Japanese commercial banks for the period 1993 to 1996, Altunbas
et al. (2000) finds that the level of non-performing loans are positively related to bank
inefficiency. Furthermore, banks tend to experience a decrease in their scale efficiency
level after controlling for risk factors. This result is also consistent with the study of
bank efficiency levels in the U.S. by Hughes and Mester (1993) and on the evaluation
of cost efficiency in the Italian banks by Girardone et al. (2004).
On the other hand, Fan and Shaffer (2004) analyzed profit efficiency of large
commercial banks in the U.S. by accounting for non-performing loans. They find that,
although non-performing loans are negatively related to banks’ profit efficiency, it is
not statistically significant.
3 Berger and Humphrey (1992) defined that the best practice frontier is where the firms are considered
to be fully efficient or achieve 100% efficiency level. The best practice frontier unit is achieved
when there is no other decision making unit that can alter the combination of its inputs for a given
output levels or vice versa.
Table 1
Three-month Non-performing Loans in the Malaysian Banking System
The bulk of the banking system’s non-performing loans is in the business sector
(56% of total non-performing loans) followed by the household sector (41%). In terms
of banking system loans, the household sector accounts for the majority of total loans
at 55%, while the business sector accounts for 40%. In Singapore, non-performing
loans peaked for most banks in 1999 following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The
non-performing loan ratio for all banks (including multi-nationals with branches
in Singapore) was 4.3% in 2005, down from 8.3% in 2001 (Monetary Authority of
Singapore, 2006). This figure is much lower than in Malaysia.
Table 2 presents the loan disbursement and non-performing loans by sector in
Malaysia. The ratio of non-performing loans to the total loans disbursed by sector
clearly indicate that the education and health sector exhibit the highest ratio among
other sectors with reported ratios of 16.83% in year 2006 and 14.20% in year 2007.
This is followed by finance, insurance and business activities with 12.02% in year 2006
and 7.26% in year 2006. These sectors are mostly dominated by individual households
borrowing for educational, health, and investment purposes. This is consistent with
the BNM report; a large part of the non-performing loans comes from the household
sector.
4 To resolve the non-performing loans problem in the banking sector, the Malaysian government
established Danaharta, an asset management company, in 1998 to purchase non-performing loans
from banking institutions. As of 31 March 2001, Danaharta had acquired loans amounting to around
RM 48 billion from the financial system.
Ratio of
Loans disbursed1 Non-performing loans2
non-performing loans
(in RM million) (in RM million)
Sector to loans disbursed
1
Loans disbursed by the banking system including Islamic banks.
2
Loans that were in default for three months. Malaysia had, until the end of December 1997, defined non-performing
loans as those loans up to six months overdue, and then revised the criterion to those loans up to three months
overdue on January 1, 1998.
Source: BNM monthly statistical bulletin.
From the point of view of management accounting, bank asset quality and operating
performance are positively related. If a bank’s asset quality is inadequate (e.g. the loan
amount becomes the amount to be collected), the bank will have to increase its bad debt
losses as well as spend more resources on the collection of non-performing loans. This
increase in non-performing loans in the banking industry can be due to external events,
such as adverse situation in economic activities (Berger and DeYoung, 1997, refers to
it as bad luck hypothesis).When banks list the loan amount for collection, banks will
incur extra operating costs from non-value-added activities to handle and supervise
the collection process. These non-value-added activities consist of constantly tracking
the debtor’s financial status, being cautious of the collateral value, discussing the
amortization plan, paying expenses for contract negotiation, calculating the costs to
withhold, deposit and dispose of collateral at the time the loans become non-payable.
The costs include winning the trust from management and the public, preserving the
banks from being rated poor as a consequence of external affairs, declining deposits
because of a loss in credibility, and extra costs to monitor loan quality. Furthermore,
higher future costs are generated by the ignorance of the problems from other
operations when the loan quality issues grab the attention of the senior management.
This escalation in cost, in turn, deteriorates bank efficiency.
To compare the cost efficiency of banks in Malaysia and Singapore, a cost efficiency
score index is calculated by estimating a stochastic cost frontier function. We then
regressed these scores against non-performing loans and other control variables to
determine the relationship between non-performing loans and bank efficiency.
5 The function was developed by Kmenta (1967) as a means of approximating the CES production
function and was introduced formally in a series of papers by Berndt, Christensen, Jorgensen and
Lau, including Berndt and Christensen (1973) and Christensen et al. (1973). The literature has
produced something of a competition in the development of exotic functional form. However, the
translog function has remained the most popular.
In equation (2), ln Cit is the natural logarithm of total cost (discussion of what
constitutes a bank’s inputs and outputs is in the next section); ln yit = the natural
logarithm of the jth output (j = 1,2,….,n); ln wkit is the natural logarithm of the kth
input price (k = 1,2,…,m). ; t is the year of observation; and are the coefficients to
be estimated. The vit s are random variables associated with measurement errors in the
input variable or the effect of unspecified explanatory variables in the model, and the
uits are non-negative random variables, associated with inefficiency of inputs used,
given the levels of outputs and the quasi-fixed inputs.
The cost efficiency of inputs used for the i-th bank in the t-th year of observation,
given the values of the outputs and inputs, is defined as the ratio of the stochastic
frontier input use to observed input use. The stochastic frontier input use is defined by
the value of input use if the cost inefficiency effect, uit, is zero (i.e., the bank is fully
efficient in the use of input). If a translog stochastic frontier cost function is used, the
cost efficiency for firm i at time t is defined by equation (3),
Cit ( yit , wit ; ) exp(vit )
CEit
Cit ( yit , wit ; ) exp(vit uit )
= exp(-uit) (3)
where CEit 1. The reciprocal of this value, exp (uit), can be interpreted as a measure
of the cost inefficiency of input usage.
The estimation of cost efficiency employs the normal-gamma model proposed by
Greene (1990). This model is more practical since it corrects the problems in stochastic
frontier analysis as a result of the one-sided disturbances in the half-normal distribution
model. The half-normal distribution model proposed by Aigner, Lovell, and Schmidt
(1977) suffers from great inflexibility, because it uses a single parameter distribution
with the assumption that the density of the disturbances mostly concentrates near zero.
Hence, any deviation in the dependent variable will be extremely damaging to the
analysis. In addition, a single outlier or unexpected observation from the sample can
result in over specification of the efficiency scores irrespective of sample size used.
Greene (1990) argued that this model has an added advantage, since it does not
require the assumption that the firm-specific inefficiency measures be predominantly
near zero. Furthermore, since the range of random variable ε is no longer restricted, the
distribution of inefficiency can take different shapes.
To determine the relationship between non-performing loans and bank efficiency
we employ the Tobit model since the efficiency scores is bounded between zero and
one. The Tobit model developed by Tobin (1958) is also known as truncated or censored
6 Little agreement exists as to what a bank produces or how to measure output. In general, though,
two approaches are used to examine the banking industry; the production and intermediation
approach is discussed in Humphrey (1985).
Data
The data for estimating the cost frontier function for ASEAN will be drawn from IBCA
BANKSCOPE and the Bank’s Annual Report. Table 3 presents a summary statistics
of all the banks in the sample. All dollar amounts are in USD million. They are in real
2000 terms and have been converted using individual country GDP deflators.
The average asset size of the banks in the whole sample (both local and foreign
banks) over the period 1995 to 2000 is USD 6,665.44 million. The average asset size
for local banks in Singapore is the biggest in our sample. Their average asset size
is USD 14,534.03 million with a maximum asset size USD 31,521.94 million. The
average asset size of Malaysia’s local banks is USD 4,161.80 million with a maximum
asset size of USD 29,608.89 million.
Table 3
Summary Statistics for Sample Banks
Non-
Invest-
Assets Loans Deposits performing
ments Price of Price of Price of
(USD (USD (USD Loans
(USD Labor Capital Funds
million) million) million) (USD
million)
million)
Malaysia
Standard
5331.31 10349.77 13271.11 6003.48 1093.33 114.39 50.45 712.75
Deviation
Singapore
Standard
13222.08 10335.04 16435.36 8518.82 916.37 85.89 76.43 653.02
Deviation
This section reports the results obtained from estimating the stochastic cost frontier,
including parameter estimates and hypothesis testing. Following Karim (2001),
ordinary least squares (OLS) was first used to check whether OLS assumptions were
not violated. The Box-Pierce statistics were insignificant indicating that the error terms
were non-autocorrelated, while the Breusch-Pagan statistics were also insignificant
indicating that the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity cannot be rejected. We then
proceed to estimate the stochastic cost frontier using the maximum likelihood method.
The maximum-likelihood estimates for the twenty-seven parameters in the translog
stochastic cost frontier for input use (defined by Equation 1) are presented in Table 4.
The inputs employed in this model are the price of labor (r1), price of capital (r2), and
the price of funds (r3), while the outputs used in this study are total investment (y1),
total loans (y2), and total deposits (y3).
From the estimation obtained based on standard translog specification, it is found
that the cost of the banks in the sample study are positively related to the price of capital
and the price of funds, and they are statistically significant at 10% and 1% significance
level respectively. This is consistent with the theory in which an increase in the price
of factors of production will lead to an increase in the cost of the commercial banks.
The descriptive statistics for the average efficiency scores obtained from the
translog cost function for both local and foreign commercial banks in Singapore and
Malaysia are presented Table 5.
Table 5
Descriptive Statistics on Average Cost Efficiency Scores for the Commercial Banks in
Singapore and Malaysia from Year 1995 to 2000
Table 6
Test for Variance and Mean Difference
Singapore Malaysia
Mean cost efficiency 0.8768 0.8688
Variance cost efficiency 0.0066 0.0071
Dependent: EFF
Coefficient Standard Error t-ratio
Constant 0.598 0.225 2.659***
NPL -1.869 0.277 -6.741***
STATE 0.032 0.056 0.568
FOREIGN -0.026 0.066 -0.400
ASSET 0.057 0.034 1.665*
AGE 0.000 0.001 -0.009
Dependent: NPL
Coefficient Standard Error t-ratio
Constant 0.320 0.149 2.144**
EFF -0.535 0.079 -6.741***
STATE 0.017 0.031 0.559
FOREIGN -0.014 0.035 -0.403
ASSET 0.030 0.016 1.874*
AGE 0.000 0.000 -0.009
Variance parameters
s12/s22 1.869 0.277 6.741***
s[e1,e2] 0.000 0.000 9.008***
* ** ***
Notes: significant at 10% level, significant at 5% level, significant at 1% level.
The results obtained from the Tobit simultaneous equation model show that the
coefficient of NPL in the equation where cost efficiency is the dependent variable
is negative and is statistically significant at the 1% level. This indicates that
non-performing loan have a negative effect on cost efficiency. The result is consistent
with the studies by Altunbas et al. (2000), Fan and Shaffer (2004), and Girardone et
al. (2004). As pointed out by Berger and DeYoung (1997), the negative relationship
exists since banks will incur extra operating costs from non-value-added activities,
such as handling and supervising the collection process of the non-performing loans.
The efficient banks are better at managing their credit risk and hence it leads to lower
non-performing loans.
Likewise, the results show that the coefficient of EFF in the equation where NPL
is the dependent variable is negative and statistically significant at the 1% level. The
result indicates that an increase in bank efficiency decreases non-performing loans.
This supports the bad management hypothesis proposed by Berger and DeYoung
(1997) which suggests that poor management in banking institutions will result in
bad quality loans. The results also found that the banks total assets, which are used to
control for scale of operation, are positively related to cost efficiency. This shows that
banks enjoy economies of scale, which is consistent with theory.
The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, the paper examines whether there are
significant differences in banking efficiency between Malaysian and Singaporean
banks. Second, the paper seeks to explain the relationship between non-performing
loans and bank efficiency. Using actual data of both Malaysian and Singaporean banks
from 1995 to 2000, we estimate bank’s cost efficiency by the stochastic cost frontier
method. The efficiency scores are then used in the second stage Tobit analysis to
investigate the relationship between non-performing loans and banking efficiency.
The cost efficiency estimation results indicate an average cost efficiency score
of 87.68% for the full sample. This suggests that banks are wasting 12.32% of their
inputs. The results also indicate that there is no significant differences in the cost
efficiency level between commercial banks in Singapore and Malaysia even though
the commercial banks in Singapore exhibit a higher average cost efficiency score than
the commercial banks in Malaysia. The Tobit regression results clearly indicate that
higher non-performing loan reduces cost efficiency. Likewise, lower cost efficiency
increases non-performing loans. The results are consistent with the studies by Altunbas
et al. (2000), Fan and Shaffer (2004), and Girardone et al. (2004) that found that
non-performing loans lead to inefficiency in the banking sector. In addition, the results
also support the hypothesis of bad management proposed by Berger and DeYoung
(1997), which suggests that poor management in the banking institutions results in bad
quality loans, and therefore, escalates the level of non-performing loans.
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