202: Dynamic Macroeconomics: Neoclassical Growth With Optimizing Agents (Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model)
202: Dynamic Macroeconomics: Neoclassical Growth With Optimizing Agents (Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model)
Mausumi Das
Let us now extend the Solow model to allow for optimizing agents.
There are two frameworks which allow for optimizing
consumption/savings behaviour by households:
1 The Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Ini…nite Horizon Framework (henceforth
R-C-K);
2 The Samuelson-Diamond Overlapping Generations Framework
(henceforth OLG).
The basic di¤erence between the two is that in the R-C-K model
agents optimize over in…nite horizon; while in the OLG model, agents
optimize over a …nite time horizon (usually 2 periods).
As we shall see later, this apparently innocuous di¤erence in terms of
time horizon spells out very di¤erent growth trajectories for the two
models.
Z∞
U0h = u cth exp ρt
dt; ρ > 0,
t =0
u c1h u c2h
U0h ' u c0h + + + .........
1+ρ (1 + ρ )2
Notice that the curvature of the utility function itself to some extent
captures the preference of an agent over consumptions at two dates:
t and t + 1. But this measure is ‘impure’in the sense that it depends
on the precise amounts of cth and cth+1 .
If I already have too much of cth and too little of cth+1 , then I might
prefer an extra unit of future consumption more than an extra unit of
today’s consumption; and it would be the other way round if my cth is
too low compared to cth+1 .
This happens simply because the utility function is concave in c, which
induces this kind on ‘consumption smoothing’.
A ‘pure’rate of time preference measures the agent’s preference for
current consumption over future consumption even when the actual
consumption at the two time periods are exactly equal (i.e., cth =
cth+1 ). This way it neutralizes the e¤ect of concavity of the utility
function and looks at the pure psychological preference for today
vis-a-vis tomorrow - which is independent of consumption smoothing.
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Interpretation of the Discount Rate (Contd.):
u ( ct + 1 )
U ( ct , ct + 1 ) = u ( ct ) +
1+ρ
Ct + It = Yt = F (Kt , Nt ).
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The R-C-K Model: Centralized Version (Contd.)
dK
Investment augments next period’s capital stock: = It .
dt
Thus the budget constraint faced by the planner in period t is given
by:
dK
Ct + = F (Kt , Nt ) δKt .
dt
Writing in per capita terms:
dk
ct + = f (kt ) δkt nkt .
dt
Thus the dynamic optimization problem of the social planner is:
Z∞
ρt
u (ct ) exp dt (I)
t =0
subject to
dk
= f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct ; kt = 0 for all t; k0 given.
dt
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A Digression: Dynamic Optimization in Continuous Time
(Optimal Control)
ZT
W = F (ut , xt , t ) dt (2)
t =0
subject to
dx
= g (ut , xt , t ); ut 2 U; x0 given.
(i)
dt
Here ut is called the control variable; xt is called the state variable; F
represents the instantaneous payo¤ function, or the felicity function.
(i) speci…es the evolution of the state variable as a function of the
state and control variables.
It is called the equation of motion or the state transition equation.
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Optimal Control (Contd.):
The objective function here is an integral, and our task is to …nd out
a time path of the time dependent variable u from the corresponding
choice set U, (i.e., to choose a u 2 U for each point of time t starting
from 0 to T ) such that the value of this integral is maximized.
But our choice is not unconstrained. (Had it been so, a simple
point-by-point static optimization exercise would have given us the
required solution path).
Note that the F function depends not only on u but also on another
time dependent variable x. And our choice of u at each point of time
a¤ects the next period’s value of x through the given di¤erential
equation.
Thus our choice of u a¤ects the objective function directly, as well as
indirectly through x.
such that
1 H is maximized with respect to u at ut for all t 2 [0, T ] ;
∂H dλ
2 = ;
∂x (u ,x ,λ,t ) dt
t t
∂H dx
3 = ;
∂λ (u ,x ,λ,t ) dt
t t
4 λT = 0
xT = x̄.
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Optimal Control (Contd.):
The Corresponding FONCs (which are also su¢ cient in this case):
∂H
H is maximixed with respect to ct ) = 0 for all t; (i)
∂ct
∂2 H
verify: 2 < 0
∂ct
∂H dλ
= ; (ii)
∂kt dt
∂H dk
= ; (iii)
∂λt dt
FONC (i):
∂Ĥ
= 0 ) u 0 (ct ) = µt for all t
∂ct
implies that the marginal utility from consumption at every point of
time must be equal to the shadow price of capital (i.e., the
incremental utility associated with a unit increase in capital stock).
FONC (ii):
∂Ĥ dµ 1 dµ
= + ρµt ) f 0 (kt ) δ n + =ρ
∂kt dt µt dt
∂Ĥ dk dk
= ) = f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct
∂µt dt dt
denotes the per capita budget constraint of the social planner.
Finally, the Transversality Condition:
ρt
lim µt exp kt = 0
t !∞
implies that at the terminal time
if the shadow price of capital is positive, no capital stock should be left
unused (unconsumed) and the economy must end up with zero capital
stock (µT > 0 ) kT = 0);
on the other hand, if some capital stock is indeed left unused then it
must be the case that the corresponding shadow price is zero (i.e.,
consuming further generates no utility value) (kT > 0 ) µT = 0).
Needless to say in this in…nite horizon problem, the above conditions
hold in a limiting sense.
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Interpretation of the Current Value Hamiltonian Function:
The Current-value Hamiltonian Function:
Ĥt = u (ct ) + µt [f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct ]
measures the utility valuation of the per capita GDP at any point of
time t.
Note that the per capita output at any time period f (kt ) can be used
for two purposes: to be enjoyed as consumption (ct ) and to augment
dk
the capital stock .
dt
The part that is consumed generates direct utility given by u (ct ) .
That part that is used for investment generates potential future
consumption and associated with an utility valuation of µt .
Thus the Current Value Hamiltonian measures the direct as well as
the indirect utility associated with the per capita output at any time
period t.
The Hamitonian (or the Present-value Hamiltonian), Ht , measures
the present discounted utility value of the per capita output at time t.
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R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Characterization of
the Optimal Path
To summarise, the optimal trajectories of ct , kt and µt must satisfy
the following set of equations at every point of time t:
u 0 ( ct ) = µt ; (i)
1 dµ
= ρ f 0 (kt ) δ n ; (ii)
µt dt
dk
= f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct ; (iii)
dt
ρt
lim µt exp kt = 0. (iv)
t !∞
We also know:
dk
= f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct . (iii)
dt
Equations (iii) & (v) represent a 2 2 system of di¤erential equations
which along with the Transversality Condition characterize the
optimal path of the economy under the centralized R-C-K model.
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Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution:
ct u 00 (ct )
σ ( ct ) .
u 0 ( ct )
dc ct
= f 0 (kt ) δ n ρ ; (v)
dt σ ( ct )
and
dk
= f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct . (iii)
dt
Both (iii) and (v) are non-linear di¤erential equations; so we have to
use phase diagram technique to qualitatively characterize the optimal
path.
ct
f 0 (kt ) δ n ρ = 0;
σ ( ct )
f (kt ) (δ + n )kt ct = 0.
Notice that σ (ct ) > 0. Hence from the above equations we can
identify three possbile steady states of the system:
Trivial steady state : c = 0; k = 0;
Semi-trivial steady state : c = 0; k = k̄ such that f (k̄ ) = δ + n;
Non-trivial steady state: c = c > 0; k = k > 0 such that
0
f (k ) = δ + n + ρ; c = f (k ) ( δ + n )k .
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R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Constrcution of the
Phase Diagram
From equation (v):
dc
T 0 according as
dt
either ct = 0 or f 0 (kt ) T δ + n + ρ.
On the other hand, from equation (iii):
dk
T 0 according as
dt
ct S f (kt ) (δ + n )kt .
dc dk
Now we can trace the level curves = 0 and = 0 in the (kt , ct )
dt dt
plane and draw the coresponding directional arrows to get the
corresponding phase diagram.
(How should the Phase Diagram look?)
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R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Phase Diagram
Recall that the TVC is part of the necessary (and su¢ cinet)
conditions for optimality.
So among all these trajectories, the one which satis…es the TVC will
indeed be the optimal path. (What if there are multiple such
trajectories?)
As it turns out, only the unique trajectory belonging to Category III
(represented by the line SS 0 in the diagram) satis…es all the four
FONCs including the transversility condition.
We now provide heuristic arguments as to why trajectories belonging
to the other two categories cannot be optimal.
Also noting that along the optimal path, µt = u 0 (ct ), we can write
the TVC as:
TVC: lim u 0 (ct ) exp ρt kt = 0. (iv0)
t !∞
dk
= f (kt ) (δ + n)kt ct .
dt
Therefore,
Zt
kt = k0 + [ f (kτ ) ( δ + n )kτ cτ ] d τ.
0
Hence
Z∞
lim kt = k0 + [ f (kτ ) ( δ + n )kτ cτ ] d τ = M.
t !∞
0
Z∞
[ cτ f f (kτ ) (δ + n)kτ g] d τ = k0 M N (a …nite constant).
0
We now argue that along any trajectory of type II, the integral
de…ned by the LHS above will diverge away to +∞ and therefore can
never converge to …nite constant N.
(Prove this yourself. Hint: A necessary condition for an in…nite
R∞ daτ
integral I aτ d τ to converge is that < 0. De…ne
0 dτ
aτ [cτ ff (kτ ) (δ + n )kτ g] here and show that along any
trajectory of type II this necessary condition is violated.)
Hence there is a contradiction.
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Proof that Trajectories of Type II cannot be Optimal:
(Contd.)
We have just proved that any trajectory belonging to category II
cannot be asymptotic to the vertical axis; it must hit the
vertical axis within a …nite period of time.
Now take any such trajectory. Can it still be optimal?
The answer is "No".
The reason is as follows:
Suppose the trajectory hits the vertical axis precisely at time T .
then exactly at time T , kt reaches zero;
Consequently, ct falls from a …nite value to zero (since a positive value
of consumption cannot be sustained with zero capital stock);
This implies that precisely at time T , µt jumps from a …nite value to
in…nity.
Such a discrete jump of µt violates FONC (ii) - which presupposes
continuity of µt .
Hence trajectories of type II cannot be optimal.
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R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Identi…cation of the
Optimal Trajectory
We have now seen that trejectories belonging to either category I or
category II cannot be optimal because they violate one of the FONCs
(i)-(iv).
That leaves the unique trajectory beloging to category III, which is
the stable arm of the saddle point (k , c ) and represented by the line
SS 0 in the diagram.
Along this trajectory, as t ! ∞, ct and kt approach c and k
respectively.
It is easy to verify that this trajectory satis…es all the four FONCs,
including the Transversality Condition.
Hence this is the unique optimal trajectory for the social planner’s
problem.
Thus, given k0 , it is optimal for the social planner to choose the
corresponding c0 that lies on trajectory III and then let the economy
evolve according to the two dynamic equations (iii) & (v).
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R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Growth Implications
Note that the household’s problem is di¤erent from the social planner
problem in an important way: the households can borrow from one
another.
Allowing for intra-household borrowings means that a household’s
consumption at any point of time t need not be limited by its current
income and current capital stock.
The household can consume beyond its current income at any point
of time - by borrowing from others.
Allowing for intra-household borrowings also means that a household
now has two forms of assets that it can invest its savings into:
1 physical capital (Kth );
2 …nancial capital, i.e., lending to other households (Lht Bth ).
Suppose the household follows a consumption path such that b0h > 0
and also any subequent time period beyond the initial point (i.e., for
any t > 0) ath = bth . In other words, suppose the household is once
again borrowing perpetually.
But now it’s borrowing grows at a rate gt < r̂t n.
(This implies that the household is paying at least part of the interest
payment in every period from its own pocket.)
Once again,
Rt
g v dv
bth = b0h exp 0
Rt
g v dv
) ath = bth = b0h exp 0
Rt Rt
(r̂v n )dv [(r̂v n ) gv ]dv
) ath exp 0 = b0h exp 0
dath
= wt + r̂t ath nath cth
dt
dath
) (r̂t n ) ath = wt cth
dt
Rt Rt
(r̂v n )dv dath (r̂v n )d
) exp 0 (r̂t n ) ath = wt cth exp 0
dt
Rt Rt
d âth (r̂v n )dv (r̂v n )dv
) = wt exp 0 cth exp 0
dt
Rt
(r̂v n )dv
where âth ath exp 0 .
Z∞ Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
d âth = wt exp 0 dt cth exp 0 dt
0 0 0
Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
) lim âh â0h = wt exp 0 dt cth exp 0
t !∞ t
0 0
Rt
(r̂v n )dv
Now recall that âth ath exp 0 .
Rt
(r̂v n )dv
Hence, â0h = a0h , and limt !∞ âth = lim ah exp 0 = 0 (by
t !∞ t
NPG).
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Economic Implication of the NPG/TVC (Contd.):
Thus,
Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
lim âth = â0h + wt exp 0 dt cth exp 0 dt = 0.
t !∞
0 0
Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
cth exp 0 dt 5 wt exp 0 dt + a0h .
0 0
In other words, the NPG condition implies that no matter what the
consumption path (and the consequent borrowing pattern) is for the
household, eventually the present value of the consumption stream
must be limited by the sum of its non-human and human wealth
(namely the discounted value of its labour earnings).
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Household’s Optimization Problem:
subject to
dath
(i) = wt + r̂t ath nath cth ; a0h given.
dt
Rt
(r̂v n )dv
(ii) NPG Condition : lim ah exp 0 = 0.
t !∞ t
As before, we can write down the FONCs (which are also su¢ cient)
in terms of the corresponding Hamiltonian/Current-value Hamiltonian
function.
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Household’s Problem: FONCs in terms of Hamiltonian
Corresponding FONCs:
∂H
H is maximixed with respect to cth ) = 0 for all t
∂cth
i.e., u 0 cth exp ρt
= λt (i)
∂H dλ
=
∂ath dt
dλ
i.e., = λt [r̂t n] (ii)
dt
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Household’s Problem: FONCs in terms of Hamiltonian
(Contd.)
∂H dath
=
∂λt dt
dah
i.e., t = wt + r̂t ath nath cth (iii)
dt
where µt = λt expρt .
FONCs in terms of the Current-value Hamiltonian:
∂Ĥ
Ĥ is maximixed with respect to ct ) = 0 for all t
∂cth
i.e., u 0 cth = µt (i)
∂Ĥ dµ
= + µρ
∂ath dt
dµ
= µt [r̂t n ρ] (ii)
dt
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Household’s Problem: FONCs in terms of Current-value
Hamiltonian (Contd.)
∂Ĥ dath
=
∂µt dt
dath
i.e., = wt + r̂t ath nath cth (iii)
dt
Compare equations (3) and (4) with the dynamic equations derived
for the social planner earlier. Observe that they are exactly
identical!
This implies that under the R-C-K model, the optimal trajectories
for the decentralized market economy and the centralized
planning economy would be identical.
Since we have already proved that the steady state for the social
planner’s problem would be dynamically e¢ cient, so would be the
steady state for the market economy.
We have just seen that in the R-C-K model with identical households,
the solution paths of the social planner and that of the market
economy will coincide.
But in deriving this strong equivalence result, we have assumed the
households are identical in every respect.
In fact with identical household allowing for intra-household borrowing
and the consequent NPG condition become super‡uous because one
side of the lending/borrowing market will be always missing!
A more interesting questio is: will this strong equivalence result hold
even when households are heterogenous?
The answer is "yes", provided the utility function satis…es certain
additional properties.
dcth cth
= [rt δ n ρ]
dt σ
Rt (r v δ n ρ)
dv
cth c0h
σ
) = exp 0 .
Now, we have see earlier (from the household’s budget constraint and
the NPG condition) that:
Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
cth exp 0 dt = wt exp 0 dt + a0h
0 0
Z∞ Rt
(r̂v n )dv
) cth exp 0 = Ŵ0 + a0h
0
Z∞ Rt h (rv δ n ρ)
i
(r̂v n ) dv
c0h exp 0 = Ŵ0 + a0h
σ
Simplifying:
Z∞ Rt h (rv δ n ρ)
i
Ŵ0 + a0h (r̂v n ) dv
c0h
σ
= , where R0 exp 0 .
R0
0
Notice that Ŵ0 and R0 are the same for all households, but a0h are
not.
Thus a rich household will enjoy a higher level initial consumption
than a relatively poor households.
But the rate of growth of consumption for all households is the same.
This implies that the initial consumption di¤erence between the rich
and the poor will persist in the long run.