GCSE Maths – Probability

Conditional Probability (Higher)

Worksheet

This worksheet will show you how to work out different types of conditional
probability questions. Each section contains a worked example, a question
with hints and then questions for you to work through on your own.

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 Section A

Worked Example

The table below shows information about students’ pets. A boy is chosen at
random from the class. Find the probability that this boy also has a dog.

Cat Dog No Pet Total

Boy 14 3 10

Girl 11 4 8

Total 25 18 50

Step 1: Find how many boys are in the class

Sum together the values in the row corresponding to pets of boys.

14 + 3 + 10 = 27

There are 27 boys in total.

As we know that the chosen student is a boy, the probability is out of the total number of
boys. Thus, the probability will be out of 27.

Step 2: Using the table, identify how many boys also have a dog.

Looking at the row corresponding to boys’ pets, there are 3 boys who have a dog.

Step 3: Calculate the required probability.

Out of the 27 boys, 3 have a dog.

3 1
𝑃𝑃(𝐶𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑜𝑜 𝑎𝑎 𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑒𝑒 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑜𝑜 𝑎𝑎 𝑏𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑒𝑒) = =
27 9

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 Guided Example

The table below shows information about students’ pets. A student who owns a cat
is chosen at random in the class. Find the probability that this student is also a boy.

Cat Dog No Pet Total

Boy 14 3 10

Girl 11 4 8

Total 50

Step 1: Calculate how many students in the class own a cat.

14 11 25

Step 2: Identify how many boys own a cat.

14boys have a cat

Step 3: Calculate the required probability.

PCBoygiventheyhaveacat II
25

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 Now it’s your turn!
If you get stuck, look back at the worked and guided examples.

1. The table below shows information about students’ pets. A student who doesn’t have
a pet is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that they are a boy.

Cat Dog No Pet Total

Boy 14 3 10

Girl 11 4 8

Total 50

Students with No Pet 10 8 18

Boys with NoPet 10

PCBoygiventheydon'thaveapet

2. The table below gives information about the results of peoples’ driving tests. A boy is
chosen at random. Calculate the probability that he passed his test.

Pass Fail Total

Boy 42 3 3
724
302
39
Girl 21 9 30

Total 60 72

42 boys
39 boyswhopassed
PCPassedgiven aboy 3492 134

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3. The table below gives information about the sports people play. A girl is chosen at
random. Calculate the probability that she plays tennis.

Football Tennis Netball Total

Boy 18 30

Girl 12 70 30
40
Total 15 30 25 1530825

40girls
18girlswhoplaytennis
P playstennisgivenagirl 48 to
4. The table below gives information about the languages that students study. A boy is
chosen at random. Calculate the probability that he studies French.

French German Spanish Total

Boy 10 2 40 22
37 18
Girl 7 52 12 7 3 12
3 22
lot
EL
Total 10 5 25

18boys
3 boyswhostudyFrench
PCstudyFrenchgiven aboy
I

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 Section B

Worked Example

Below is a Venn diagram showing events A and B. Calculate 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩|𝑨𝑨)

A B

3 8 12

Step 1: Identify the probability which is being asked for.

The question is asking you to find 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) which is the probability of an outcome being in B
given that it is already in A.

Note, there are 2 + 3 + 8 + 12 = 25 units allocated in the Venn diagram.

Step 2: Calculate 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴).

8 + 3 = 11
11
There are 11 units in A so 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = .
25

Step 3: Calculate 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵).

There are 8 in the intersection between A and B, so

A ∩ B = 8.
8
Hence, 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = .
25

Step 4: Calculate the required probability using the formula for conditional probability.

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) =
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

8
25 8
𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) = =
11 11
25

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 Guided Example

Let A denote the event that someone plays rugby and let B denote the event
that someone plays football. Calculate the probability that someone plays
rugby given that they play one of the two sports.

A B
8 4 9

12

Step 1: Identify the probability which is being asked for.

Play rugby PCA giventheyplaya sport PCAUB

PCAI AUB
Step 2: Calculate 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴).
PCA
8,4 12

Step 3: Calculate 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵).

PCAUB 8 1
343
2,1

Step 4: Calculate the required probability using the formula for conditional probability.

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 Now it’s your turn!
If you get stuck, look back at the worked and guided examples.

5. Consider the following Venn diagram which shows the number of people partaking in
hockey club and swimming club. Karen attends swimming club. What is the
probability that she does not attend hockey club?

H s
Hockey Swimming

13 11 14

10

PC H NS IS
P H n5 1
1 13
P S 14
481 385
PCH'nsIS
Esg
6. The following Venn diagram shows the number of people who play violin and piano.
Calculate the probability someone plays neither instrument, given they don’t play
piano.

V P
Violin Piano

2 4 8

10

P np P
PCU NP
ot 8 24
P P1
2441 124
Plump IP 192
8

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7. The following Venn diagram shows the numbers of people who study languages in a
class. A student is selected and found to study a language. Find the probability that
they study Russian.
P CRI RU TUM
R T
Russian Turkish

9 2 7
Total 40
1

2 3

5 Mandarin

11
M

P R 9 21
01 4
PCRUTUM 4
51 3
PCR I RUTUM
III
8. The following Venn diagram shows the numbers of people have certain pets. A
Ig
student is selected and found to own a cat. What is the probability that they also own
a dog?
PCDMC IC
D
Dog Cat
C

12 10
Togtzal
9

7 Rabbit
R
2

P Dnc 10431 4193

PCC 10
335
4 43
P Dnc 10
191 3 212

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 Section C

Worked Example

There are 3 blue balls and 6 red balls in a bag. Calculate the probability of
picking out a red ball given that a red ball was just taken out.

Step 1: Draw the required tree diagram. Second selection

Step 2: Identify the branches required for the given First selection
question.

The question asks about a red ball being chosen,

given a red ball has already been chosen. This
means we are interested in the path of ‘Red’
followed by ‘Red’.

Step 3: Find the probability of obtaining a red ball after a red

ball is taken out by reading the probability of the
required branch.

5
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑏𝑏𝑎𝑎𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑑𝑑𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑏𝑏𝑎𝑎𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑗𝑗𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜) =
8

Guided Example

There are 5 sweetsSand 9 chocolates

e in a bag. Calculate the probability of
obtaining a sweet given that a chocolate was just taken out.
Step 1: Draw a tree diagram.
s
s I e

C g s
513
g C
3
Step 2: Identify the branches required for the given question.
We are interested inthepath chocolatethensweet

Step 3: Find the probability of obtaining a sweet after a chocolate is taken out by reading the
probability of the correct path.

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 Now it’s your turn!
If you get stuck, look back at the worked and guided examples.

1. There are 2 yellowY marbles, 3 redRmarbles and 6 blueB marbles in a bag. A marble is
selected and found to be yellow. Given that this marble is not returned to the bag,
find the probability that a yellow marble is chosen in a second selection.

Follow path yellow then Yellow

r s
B 610
Y
R
f these paths
aren'tneeded
B
y
PCYellow Yellow
to

Y R and 17 blueBmarbles in a bag. A marble

2. There are 2 yellow marbles, 11 red marbles
is chosen from the bag. Given that it is not a blue marble, what is the probability that
it is a yellow marble?

PCB
HIII 53
p Y
30
PLY I B
73

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 Pk Pe mini eggs in a bag. Calculate the probability
Y and 9 purple
3. There are 10 pink, 7 yellow
that 2 pink mini eggs are chosen in a row. Note, the first mini egg chosen is eaten
and so does not get returned to the bag.

925

E
Py
Pe 6 These paths
aren't needed

Follow the Pk andPk path

PCPinktwice P Pink X P Pinks

Es Is
Pk Y B and 9 purple
4. There are 10 pink, 7 yellow, 4 blue Pemini eggs in a bag. A mini egg is
chosen from the bag. Given that it is not blue or pink, calculate the probability that the
chosen egg is purple.

P B n Pi
8 I4tq
P Pe 930

PCPet B n Pi
98

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