Operation Management

Reliability
Dr. Yousaf Ali Khan
Department of Management Sciences and Humanities
GIK Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology
 Reliability
• Reliability: The ability of a product, part, or system
to perform its intended function under a prescribed set
of conditions
• Formally defined as the probability that a product,
piece of equipment, or system will perform its
intended function for a stated period of time under
specified operating conditions.
• A product that “works” for a long period of time is a
reliable one.
 Reliability
• Reliability is a time dependent characteristic.
• Since all units of a product will fail at different times.

• Failure: Situation in which a product, part, or system

does not perform as intended

• Normal operating conditions: The set of conditions

under which an item’s reliability is specified
– A regular car is not to be driven at 200 mph
– A bed is not to be used as a trampoline
 Reliability Importance
• One of the most important characteristics of a product,
it is a measure of its performance with time

• Products’ recalls are common (only after time elapses).

In October 2006, the Sony Corporation recalled up to
9.6 million of its personal computer batteries

• Products are discontinued because of fatal accidents

(Pinto, Concord)

• Medical devices and organs (reliability of artificial

organs)
 Reliability Importance
• Business data

Warranty costs measured in million dollars for several large

American manufacturers in 2006 and 2005.
(www.warrantyweek.com)
Name Definition

Guarantee An assurance given by the manufacturer to the vendor that the product will work without
failure for a stated period of time

Warranty A written guarantee given to the purchaser of a new appliance, automobile, or other item
by the manufacturer or dealer, usually specifying that the manufacturer will make any
repairs or replace defective parts free of charge for a stated period of time.

Maintainability The measure of the ability of an item to be retained in or retained in or restored to a

specified condition when maintenance is performed by personnel having specified skill
levels, using prescribed procedures and resources
Applies to a major tasks where many repetitions are expected and where considerable
time is required

Availability A tool for measuring the percent of time an item or system is in a state of readiness where it is
operable and can be committed to use when called upon. Availability ceases because of a
downing event that causes the item/to system become unavailable to initiate a mission when
called upon

Availability=MTBF/(MTBF+MTTR)

Reliability The ability of an item to perform a required function under stated conditions for a
stated period of time. It is usually denoted as probability or as a success .
 Reliability is a Probability
• Probability that the product or system will:
– Function when activated
– Function for a given length of time
• Independent events
– Events whose occurrence or nonoccurrence do not
influence each other
• Redundancy
– The use of backup components to increase
reliability
 System Reliability
• As products become more complex (have more
components), the chance that they will not
function increases.
• The method of arranging the components
affects the reliability of the entire system.
• Components can be arranged in series,
parallel, or a combination.
 Series or Serial System
• A product is composed of several components. Suppose
components fail/work independently.
• For a series systems, the reliability is the product of the
individual components. Example: Laptop and projector
• RS = R1 R2 ... Rn
• As components are added to the series, the system
reliability decreases.

A B

Water flowing from left to right analogy. P(System works)=P(A works) P(B works)
 1
Parallel System
2
Rs = 1 - (1 - R1) (1 - R2)... (1 - Rn)
n
• When a component does not function, the product continues to
function, using another component, until all parallel
components do not function.
• If at least one component must function for the product to
function, components are parallel.
• Example: Two batteries of a laptop.
 Rule 1
• If two or more events are independent and success is defined
as the probability that all of the events occur, then the
probability of success is equal to the product of the
probabilities of the events.
• Example: suppose a room has two lamps, but to have adequate
light both lamps must work (success) when turned on. One
lamp has a probability of working of .90 and the other has a
probability of working of 0.80. the probability that both will
work is
Lamp 1 Lamp 2

.90 .80 .90 x .80 = .72

 Rule2- Redundancy
• Redundancy: the use of backup components to increase reliability
• If two events are independent and success is defined as the probability that
at least one of the events will occur, then the probability of success is equal
to the probability of either one plus 1 minus that probability multiplied by
the other probability.
• Example: there are two lamps in a room. When turned on, one has a
probability of working of .90 and the other has a probability of working of
0.80. only a single lamp is needed to light for success. If one fails to light
when turned on, the other lamp is turned on. Hence lamp can be treated as
the backup. The probability of success is

.80 Lamp 2 (backup)

.90 .90 + (1-.90)*.80 = .98

Lamp 1
 Rule3-
• If two or more events are involved and success is defined as the probability
that at least one of them occurs, the probability of success is 1-P(all fail).
• Example: three lamps have probabilities of 0.90, .80 and .70 of lighting
when turned on. Only one lighted lamp is needed for success; hence two of
the lamps are considered to be backups. The probability of success is

• (OR)
.70 Lamp 3 (backup for Lamp 2)

Lamp 2 (backup for Lamp1)

.80

1 – P(all fail)
.90 1-[(1-.90)*(1-.80)*(1-.70)] = .994
Lamp 1
 Example: Reliability Diagram

Determine the reliability of the system shown

.90 .92

.98

.90 .95
The system can be reduced to a series of three components

.98 .90+.90(1-.90) .95+.92(1-.95)

.98 x .99 x .996 = .966

 Example
The system can be reduced to a series of three components
By collapsing parallel components

0.98 1-(0.10)(0.10) 1-(0.05)(0.08)

0.98 x 0.99 x 0.996

 solution
Q1:A hospital has three independent fire alarm systems, with
reliabilities of 0.95, 0.97, and 0.99. In the event of a fire, what is
the probability that a warning would be given?
Sol: 1-(1-0.95)*(1-0.97)*(1-0.99)=0.999985
Q2:

1 – [(1 - 0.80) x (1 – 0.90) x (1 - 0.94)] = 0.9988

 Normal Distribution
• Product failure due to wear-out can sometimes
be modelled by a normal distribution

Reliability

0 z
 The Standard Normal
Distribution
• If each data value of a normally distributed random
variable x is transformed into a z-score, the result will
be the standard normal distribution.

Standard Normal
Normal Distribution
Distribution
s x-m
z=
s s=1

m x m=0 z

• Use the Standard Normal Table to find the

cumulative area under the standard normal curve.
Q: The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modeled using a normal distribution
with a mean of six years and a standard deviation of one year. Determine each of
the following:
(a) The probability that a ball bearing will wear out before seven years of service.
(b) The probability that a ball bearing will wear-out after seven years of service ( i.e.,
find its reliability)
(c) The service life that will provide a wear-out probability of 10 percent.
 Exponential Distribution
• Usually, exponential distribution is used to
describe the time or distance until some event
happens.
• It is in the form of: 1 − mx
f ( x) = e
m

– where x ≥ 0 and μ>0. μ is the mean or expected

value.
 Another form of exponential
distribution

f ( x) =  e − x

1
In this case, =
m

1
Then the mean or expected value is 
Failure Rate:
 Exponential Distribution for Life X

X ~ Expo( ), f ( x) = e−x , E ( X ) = 1 /  = MTBF , P( X  T ) = e−T

pdf f(x)

Reliability=P(x>T)=1-F(T)
Reliability = e -T/MTBF
cdf F(T)=P(X<T)

T Time
 Use Exponential Distribution
to Model Lifetime
• Exponential distribution is a simple density
used to model lifetimes
• The reliability of each part in a system
Reliability=P(Part works at T)=1-F(T)
• Once reliabilities are computed for all parts,
combine parts according to whether serial or
parallel
Example
 Availability
• The fraction of time a piece of equipment
is expected to be available for operation

• MTBF = mean time between failures

• MTR = mean time to repair
• It is a time-related factor that measures the ability of a
product or service to perform its designated function.
• The product or service is available when it is in the
operational state, which includes active and standby use.
 Example
Q: A copier is able to operate for an average of
200 hours between repairs, and the mean repair
time is two hours. Determine the availability of
the copier.
MTBF = 200 hours and MTR = 2 hours