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Math4E Week 5&6 - Lecture 5

Here are the solutions to the homework problems: 1. 4/5 2. (15C6 * 20C6) / (35C12) = 5/231 3. 1/5 + 1/6 + 1/10 - 1/5 * 1/6 - 1/5 * 1/10 - 1/6 * 1/10 = 31/60 4. Let p be the probability of the event occurring in one trial. Then 18*(4C2*p^2*(1-p)^2) = (6C5)*p^5*(1-p) Solving this, we get p = 1/6 5. The probability that the sum is greater than 10

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143 views20 pages

Math4E Week 5&6 - Lecture 5

Here are the solutions to the homework problems: 1. 4/5 2. (15C6 * 20C6) / (35C12) = 5/231 3. 1/5 + 1/6 + 1/10 - 1/5 * 1/6 - 1/5 * 1/10 - 1/6 * 1/10 = 31/60 4. Let p be the probability of the event occurring in one trial. Then 18*(4C2*p^2*(1-p)^2) = (6C5)*p^5*(1-p) Solving this, we get p = 1/6 5. The probability that the sum is greater than 10

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John Cris Lustria Püblico
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PROBABILITY

Probability is the ratio of successful events to


the total number of events.
Notation Used
Symbol Meaning
S A sample space of permissible random
outcomes
n(S) The number of elements in S
E A set of specified outcomes in S
n(E) The number of elements in E
p(E) The probability that E will happen, or
more briefly, the probability of E
Example:

Find the probability that a 5 will turn up in


one throw of a die.
S = 1,2,3,4,5,6
E= 5

Using these symbols,


𝑛𝐸 1
p(E) = =
𝑛𝑆 6
Probability of success + Probability of Failure = 1

1. Probability in Single Event. If an event can


happen in h ways, it can fail in f ways are likely
equal, then in a single trial the probability will
happen is given by,
ℎ 8 8
𝑝= = =
ℎ + 𝑓 8 + 2 10
And the probability that it will fail is given by,

𝑓 2 2
𝑞= = =
ℎ+𝑓 8+2 10
Complement
 The event that A does not occur, denoted as A', is called
the complement of event A.

Intersection
 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by
A ∩ B, is the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.

Union
 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by A∪B,
is the event containing all the elements that belong to A
or B or both.
A. Mutually Exclusive Events:
If not more than one of them can happen in a
given trial or events that have no outcomes in
common are said to be disjoint or mutually
exclusive.

If E1 and E2 are any two events, mutually


exclusive or not, with probabilities p(E1) and
p(E2), then the probability of E1 or E2 is,

p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) – p(E1 ∩ E2)


Addition Rule
 Let E1 and E2 be mutually exclusive events (i.e. there are no
common outcomes).

 n(E) = Number of outcomes of event E


 n(E1) = Number of outcomes of event E1
 n(E2) = Number of outcomes of event E2

 The number of times event E will occur can be given by the


expression:
n(E) = n(E1) + n(E2)
Tip
In counting and probability, "OR"
usually requires us to ADD.
Example:
If 1 card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, find the
probability that it will be red or an ace.
Solution:
E1 – set of red cards E2 – set of Aces
n(E1) = n(reds) = 26 n(E2) = n(ace) = 4
n(E1 ∩ E2) = n(reds ∩ Aces) =2 (the red Ace of heart
and red Ace of diamond)
26 1 4 1
p(E1) = 52 = 2 p(E2) = 52 = 13
2 1
p(E1 ∩ E2) = 52
= 26

p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) – p(E1 ∩ E2)


1 1 1 7
= 2 + 13 − 26 = 13
Example:
If the probability of marrying Marilyn is ½ for
Leo and 1/3 for Ed, what is the probability
that one of them will marry her?

Solution:
p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2)
1 1 5
= + =
2 3 6
Multiplication
 Suppose that event E1 can result in any one of n(E1) possible
outcomes; and for each outcome of the event E1, there are
n(E2) possible outcomes of event E2.

Together there will be n(E1) × n(E2) possible outcomes


of the two events.
 That is, if event E is the event that both E1 and E2 must
occur, then
n(E) = n(E1) × n(E2)
Tip
 In counting and probability, "AND" usually
requires us to MULTIPLY.
B. Independent Events:
 If the probability of the occurrence of event E1
does not affect the probability of the occurrence
of event E2, then the events are independent.

 If the probability of the event E1 occurring is


p(E1) and the probability of an independent
event E2 occurring is p(E2), then the
probability that both will occur is,

p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2)


Example:
1. A bag contains 6 white marshmallows and 4
green marshmallows. A marshmallow is
drawn from the bag and replaced, and then a
second marshmallow is withdrawn. Find the
probability that the first marshmallow is
white and the second is green.
Solution:
6 3 4 2
p(E1) = = p(E2) = =
10 5 10 5

3 2 6
p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2) = =
5 5 25
C. Dependent Events:
 If the probability of the occurrence of event E1
affect the probability of the occurrence of event
E2, then the events are independent.

 If the probability of the event E1 occurring is


p(E1) and if after E has occurred, the probability of
the second event E2 occurring is p(E2/E1), then
the probability that both will occur is,

p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2/E1)

Note: E2/E1 indicates that E2 happens after E1


occurred
Example:
 From the previous sample problem, if one
marshmallow is withdrawn and not replaced
before the second marshmallow is
withdrawn, find the probability that both
will be white.
3 5
p(E1) = p(E2/E1) = white
5 9
marshmallow is not replaced
p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2/E1)
3 5 1
= =
5 9 3
D. Repeated Events:
 If p is the probability that an event will
occur in one trial, then the probability that
it will occur exactly r times in n trial is,

𝑟
𝑛𝐶𝑟(𝑝 )(1 − 𝑝) 𝑛−𝑟

Where
n = no. of trial
r = no. of desired successful outcome
p1 = probability of a successful
outcome in a trial
Example:
 A bag contains 4 white socks and 5 blue
socks. The sacks are drawn from the bag one
at a time and are replaced after each
drawing. What is the probability of drawing
exactly 3 blue socks in 5 trials?
Solution:
In one trial, p(blue) = 5/9
𝑛𝐶𝑟(𝑝𝑟 )(1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑟
5 3 5 5−3 5! 5 3 5 2
5𝐶3( ) (1 − ) = ( ) (1 − )
9 9 3!2! 9 9
= 20000/59049
Homework:
1. A bag contains five pairs of socks. If four
socks are chosen, what is the probability that
there is no complete pair taken?
2. A box contains 15 red eggs and 20 white
eggs. If 12 eggs are taken at random, what is
the probability that these will have an equal
number of red and white eggs?
3. If the probability that Ginebra, Alaska, and
Shell will win the PBA open conference
championship are 1/5, 1/6 and 1/10,
respectively, find the probability that one of
them will win the title?
Homework:
4. The probability of an event happening
exactly twice in four trials is 18 times the
probability of it happening exactly five times
in six trials. Find the probability that it will
occur in one trial.
5. Two dice are rolled. Find the probability
that the sum of the two dice is greater than
10.

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