IFM Topic 1 PDF
IFM Topic 1 PDF
IFM Topic 1 PDF
SHRIPAD LIMAYE
What is prudence in the conduct of every private family
can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign
country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we
ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part
of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in
which we have some advantage.
Evaluate the International Financial System mainly after the Second World War.
Analyze the growth patterns, strategies, major reforms along with the major crisis
happened in different countries.
SYLLABUS
❖ Introduction
❖ Forex Markets
❖ International Financing
INTRODUCTION
❖ International finance
➢ Types of foreign exchange rates- spot rate, forward rate, inter bank rate,
two quote rates, cross rate, Regulating and controlling foreign exchange
market
✓ Political Risks
✓ Market imperfections
NEED FOR FOREIGN CAPITAL
❖ Initial risks
Political stability
Exchange rates
Political risks
Environmental safeguards
Dumping
Cultural differences
Cyber crimes
CHALLENGES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (CONTD..)
Transfer Pricing
International Taxation
Interest rates
International terrorism
Credit worthiness
Methods of payment
TERMS USED
International business.: Any business transaction between parties from more than one
country is a part of international business.
International trade : International trade is the exchange of goods and services between
countries.
Foreign exchange risk : Foreign exchange risk refers to the losses that an international
financial transaction may incur due to currency fluctuations.
Political risk: Political risk is the risk an investment’s returns could suffer as a result of
political changes or instability in a country.
Thank You
MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS (MNC)
It normally consists of a parent company located in the home country and few or
more foreign subsidiaries
Types:
❑ Raw-Material Seekers
❑ Marker Seekers
❑ Cost Minimizers
APPROACHES TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
1. Ethnocentric Approach
2. Polycentric Approach
3. Regiocentric Approach
4. Geocentric Approach.
ETHNOCENTRIC APPROACH
The domestic companies normally formulate their strategies, their product design
and their operations towards the national markets, customers and competitors
Excessive production more than the demand for the product, export to foreign
countries
The domestic company continues the exports to the foreign countries and views the
foreign markets as an extension to the domestic markets
The company exports the same product designed for domestic markets to foreign
countries under this approach
POLYCENTRIC APPROACH
The company establishes a foreign subsidiary company and decentralizes all the
operations and delegates decision-making and policymaking authority to its
executives.
The foreign subsidiary considers the regional environment (laws, culture, policies,
etc) for formulating policies and strategies
The foreign company markets more or less the same product designed under
polycentric approach in other countries of the region, but with different market
strategies
GEOCENTRIC APPROACH
Globalised economy
FDIs not only bring money with them but also skills, technology and knowledge.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment from a party in one country into a
business or corporation in another country with the intention of establishing a lasting
interest.
A lasting interest is established when an investor obtains at least 10% of the voting
power/ control in a firm.
Control represents the intent to actively manage and influence a foreign firm’s
operations.
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS
Capital, labor, and technology do move across national boundaries . Thus
International trade and movements of productive resources can be regarded as
substitutes for one another
There are two main types of foreign investments: portfolio investments and direct
investments
METHODS OF FDI
Other methods:
➢ Horizontal
➢ Vertical
➢ Conglomerate
➢ Platform
TYPES OF FDI
Horizontal: a business expands its domestic operations to a foreign country. In this case, the business
conducts the same activities but in a foreign country. For example, McDonald’s opening restaurants in
Japan would be considered horizontal FDI.
Vertical: a business expands into a foreign country by moving to a different level of the supply chain. In
other words, a firm conducts different activities abroad but these activities are still related to the main
business. Using the same example, McDonald’s could purchase a large-scale farm in Canada to produce
meat for their restaurants.
Platform: a business expands into a foreign country but the output from the foreign operations is
exported to a third country. This is also referred to as export-platform FDI. Platform FDI commonly
happens in low-cost locations inside free-trade areas. For example, if Ford purchased manufacturing
plants in Ireland with the primary purpose of exporting cars to other countries in the EU..
THEORIES OF FDI
❖ Capital Market Theory / Currency Area Theory
❖ Internalization theory
It postulated that foreign investment in general arose as a result of capital market imperfections. FDI
specifically was the result of differences between source and host country currencies
According to Aliber (1970; 1971), weaker currencies have a higher FDI-attraction ability and are better
able to take advantage of differences in the market capitalisation rate, compared to stronger country
currencies
MNCs based in hard currency areas can borrow at a lower interest rate than host country firms because
portfolio investors overlook the foreign aspect of source country MNCs. This gives source country firms
the borrowing advantage because they can access cheaper sources of capital for their overseas affiliates
and subsidiaries than what local firms would access the same funds for.
This is however a very basic approach to the economics of FDI, because FDI flows are more complicated
than just being about commonalities between nations.
INSTITUTIONAL FDI FITNESS THEORY
FDI fitness focuses on a country’s ability to attract, absorb and retain FDI.
It is this country ability to adapt, or to fit to the internal and external expectations of its
investors, which gives countries the upper-hand in harnessing FDI inflows.
▪ Government - The role of a country’s political strength plays the biggest role in the FDI
game. Government fitness requires the adoption of protective regulation to manage market
fitness.
▪ Market - accounts for the economic and financial aspects of institutional FDI fitness, in the
form of machinery (physical capital) and credit (financial capital).,
▪ Educational - educated human capital enhances R&D creativity and information processing
ability and
▪ Socio-cultural fitness – Base of the pyramid
INTERNALIZATION THEORY
Deals with transaction cost
This is the cost of searching and determining the market price, or, once the price is found, the cost of negotiation,
signing and enforcement of contracts between the parties involved in the transaction.
A theory of the multi-plant enterprise was required, and internalisation theory filled this gap
‘Internalisation’ refers to the fact that MNEs replace external markets in proprietary knowledge and semi-
processed products with internal managerial coordination.
Before internalisation theory it was widely believed that multinational firms transferred capital to a foreign
country, while afterwards it was recognised that it is mainly knowledge that they transfer; capital is transferred, if
at all, mainly to protect the knowledge and to appropriate profit from its exploitation abroad
Source: https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/38244/3/Coase%20and%20International%20Business%203.pdf
PRODUCT LIFE THEORY
The theory, detailed that a product goes through various stages in the course of its progress.
These stages are:
(1) New product stage - innovation or invention of products will mostly be done in
developed nations, because of the economy of the nation
(2) Maturing product stage - The product enters this stage when it has established demand
in developed nations. The manufacturer, would need to open manufacturing plants in each
nation where the product has demand. Due to local production, labour costs and export
costs will decline which will, and in result reduce the per unit cost and increase the revenue.
This stage may include product development
(3) Standardized product stage - In this stage exports to nations various developed and under
developed nations will begin. Foreign product competition will reach its peak due to which
the product will start losing its market. Then, the cycle of a new product begins
INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT PATH THEORY
The IDP essentially traces out the net cross-border flows of industrial knowledge, the
flows that are internalised in foreign direct investment (FDI) and that restructure and
upgrade the global economy.
There is also the non-equity type of knowledge transfer such as licensing, turn-key
operations
In this way, the IDP can thus be view as a cross-border learning curve exhibited by a
nation that successfully move up the stages of development by acquiring industrial
knowledge from its more advanced ‘neighbours’.
FDI IN INDIAN ECONOMY
• Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992 and SEBI Regulations
Within 30 days from the date of allotment of share, Return of Private Placement is required to be
filed with ROC in Form PAS-3. Other Important Conditions under Companies Act, 2013 Board of
Directors to identify such persons (not more than 200 in an FY) each of who will take not less than
INR 25,000 of the face value of shares under Section 42.
For each such investment, shareholder approval is required to be taken. An offer letter is required to
be issued in Form PAS-4. Money to be kept in a separate bank account till the time of allotment. If
shares are not issued within 60 days, then the money is required to be refunded within 15 days
otherwise 12% p.a. Interest is payable from the 61st day of allotment.
COMPLIANCES UNDER SEBI ACT, 1992
Several changes have been made to the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations, 1995 to
diversify the foreign institutional investor base and to further facilitate the inflow of foreign portfolio
investment. The changes have also aimed at facilitating investment in debt securities through the FII
route.
The changes are as follows:
The eligible categories of FIIs have been expanded to include university funds, endowments,
foundations, charitable trusts, and charitable societies which have a track record of 5 years and which
are registered with a statutory authority in their country of incorporation or establishment.
Each FII or sub-account of an FII has been permitted to invest up to 10% of the equity of any one
company, subject to the overall limit of 24% on investments by all FIIs, NRIs, and OCBs. The 24% limit
may be raised to 30% in the case of individual companies who have obtained shareholder approval
for the same.
FIIs have been permitted to invest in unlisted securities. FIIs have been allowed to invest their
proprietary funds. FIIs who obtain specific approval from SEBI have been permitted to invest 100% of
their portfolios in debt securities. Such investment may be in listed or to be listed corporate debt
securities or in dated government securities and is treated to be part of the overall limit on external
commercial borrowing.
COMPLIANCES UNDER SEBI ACT, 1992
The impact of these changes was felt as several endowment funds, proprietary funds, and 100%
debt funds of FIIs obtained registration. Further details are given in Part II of this Report. To simplify
the FII registration process, SEBI and RBI set up a coordination committee. At the end of 1996-97,
there were no applications for FII registration pending with SEBI and RBI. Foreign investment in
Indian securities has also been made possible through the purchase of Global Depository Receipts,
Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds, and Foreign Currency Bonds issued by Indian issuers which
are listed, traded and settled overseas.
Foreign investors, whether registered as FII or not, may also invest in Indian securities outside the
FII route. Such investment requires case-by-case approval from the Foreign Investment Promotion
Board (FIPB) and the RBI, or only by the RBI depending on the size of investment and the industry in
which this investment is to be made.
Foreign financial services institutions have also been allowed to set up joint ventures in
stockbroking, asset management companies, merchant banking, and other financial services firms
along with Indian partners. Foreign participation in financial services requires the approval of FIPB.
In 1996-97, the FIPB announced guidelines for foreign investment in the non-banking financial
services sector.
FOREIGN TRADE (DEVELOPMENT AND REGULATION) ACT, 1992
The Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992 governs and regulates India's foreign policy. The
Act was not enacted as a new piece of legislation to regulate foreign policy, but rather as a substitute for
the Import and Exports (Control) Act of 1947. The Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992
now regulates and manages India's whole export and import scenario.
This act has removed all of the intricacies of the previous act and has given the Indian government some of
the most powerful control tools available. This act is regarded as the most important piece of legislation
governing the country's foreign trade. The Act was enacted with the primary goal of providing an
appropriate framework for the development and standardization of foreign commerce by facilitating
imports and increasing exports in the country, as well as any other matters related to it. The Central
Government has been given several authorities under this Act.
According to the act's provisions, the Central Government has complete authority to enact any laws
connected to foreign commerce to achieve the act's goals. This Act also gives the government the authority
to make any provisions related to the formulation of national import and export policy.
The Act also allows the Central Government to designate a Director-General by notifying the appointment
in the Official Gazette, and for the Director-General to carry out all foreign trade policies by the rules.
FEMA, 1999
1. Entry route - Procedure for government approval
2. Sectoral Caps
3. Eligible Investor
4. Pricing Guideline
5. Equity Investment
6. Convertible Note
7. Requirement of KYC
8. Right issue or Bonus Issue of shares
9. ESOP - Shares of Indian companies
10.Reporting Requirements
ENTRY ROUTES FOR INVESTMENTS
• Investments can be made by non-residents in the equity shares/fully, compulsorily, and
mandatorily convertible debentures/fully, compulsorily, and mandatorily convertible preference
shares of an Indian company, through the Automatic Route or the Government Route.
• FDI under the Government Approval route has to be subject to Govt. approval where;
• An Indian company that is not owned and & controlled by a resident entity.
• An Indian company whose ownership and control are transferred to the non-resident entity.
• Where a foreign entity converts its debt instrument to foreign investment.
• Investment by NRIs or Company, trust and partnership firms incorporated outside India, under
Schedule IV of Foreign Exchange Management (Non-Debt Instruments) Rules, 2019
CAPS ON INVESTMENTS
Investments can be made by a person resident outside India in the capital of a resident entity only
to the extent of the percentage of the total capital as specified in the FDI policy.
ENTRY CONDITIONS ON INVESTMENTS
Investments by non-residents can be permitted in the capital of a resident entity in certain
sectors/activities with entry conditions. Such conditions may include norms for minimum
capitalization, lock-in period, etc.
OTHER CONDITIONS INVESTMENTS BESIDES ENTRY
CONDITIONS
Besides the entry conditions on foreign investment, the investment/investors are required to
comply with all relevant sectoral laws, regulations, rules, security conditions, and state/local
laws/regulations.
CASES THAT DO NOT REQUIRE FRESH APPROVAL
• The entities that already have prior government approval.
• In case of Additional foreign investment into the entity where the prior approval of the
Government had been obtained earlier.
• Additional foreign investment up to the cumulative amount of Rs 5000 crore into the same
entity within an approved foreign equity percentage/or into a wholly-owned subsidiary
ONLINE FILING OF APPLICATION FOR GOVERNMENT
APPROVAL
What does this imply in terms of economic development and poverty reduction? Although FDI is
certainly good for overall growth, the question of whether it helps raise per capita incomes and
hence reduce income poverty remains unanswered. It's only a tangential link at best.
The evidence on increasing per capita incomes is mixed, and direct employment is limited, with
skilled (non-poor) employees benefiting the most. Furthermore, if FDI inflows are generally beneficial
to growth but raise income disparity (since skilled people earn more and are more inclined to work in
FDI), it is possible that all else being equal, FDI inflows put downward pressure on income growth.
GOVERNMENT MEASURES TO INCREASE FDI
Amendment to FDI Policy 2017 – 100% FDI under automatic route for
coal mining
Objective of these schemes entail Make in India, incentivising foreign manufacturers to start production in
India and incentivise domestic manufacturers to expand their production and exports
These schemes will reduce pollution, climate change, carbon footprint, reduce oil and fuel import bill
through domestic alternative substitution, boost job creation and economy. Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers welcomed this as it will enhance the competitiveness and boost growth
FOREIGN TRADE (DEVELOPMENT AND REGULATION) ACT, 1992
The act has empowered the Central Government to make provisions for the development as
well as regulation of foreign trade
This act authorizes the government to formulate as well as announce the export and import
policy and to also keep amending the same on a timely basis. The government has also been
given a wide power to prohibit, restrict and regulate the exports and imports in general as well
as specified cases of foreign trade.
The act commands every importer as well as exporter to obtain a code number called the
‘Importer Exporter Code Number (IEC)’ from the Director-General or the authorized officer
The act provides the balancing of all the budgetary targets in terms of imports and exports so
that the nation reaches the very peak of economic development
GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES CONCERNING FDI
o Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB)
o Several Ministries of the GOI such as Power, Information & Communication, Energy, etc.
WAY FORWARD WITH FDI
It does not provide the investor with direct ownership of financial assets and is relatively liquid
depending on the volatility of the market
FPIs include stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange traded funds, American Depositary Receipts
(ADRs), and Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs).
FPI is part of a country’s capital account and is shown on its Balance of Payments (BOP).
FPI is often referred to as “hot money” because of its tendency to flee at the first signs of trouble
in an economy. FPI is more liquid and less risky than FDI.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FDI AND FPI
THANK YOU
RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Learning Objectives:
• Understand and measure political risk and country risk involved in investment
decisions at multinational levels;
For example, a recession in a country, which reduces the revenues of exporters to that nation is
a realization of country risk Labour strikes by a country’s dockworkers, truckers, and transit
workers that disrupt production and distribution of products, thus lowering profits, also qualify
as country risks. Clashes between rival ethnic or religious groups that prevent people in a
country from conducting business activities can also be considered country risks.
Country risk involves the possibility of losses due to country specific economic, political or social
events or because of company specific characteristics, therefore all political risks are country
risk but all country risks are not political risks.
Sovereign risks involve the possibility of losses on private claims as well as on direct investment.
Country Risk includes a variety of factors ranging from government’s confiscation of a firm’s
assets to government’s encouragement of a negative attitude towards foreign business.
COUNTRY RISK
Country risk also affects investors who buy emerging market securities and the
banks that lend to countries.
In international bond markets, country risk refers to any factor related to a country
that can cause a borrower in that country to default on a loan.
The narrower risk associated with a government defaulting on its bond payments is
called sovereign risk.
Usually, the abilities of a private firm and its government to pay off international
debt are highly correlated.
POLITICAL RISKS
Political risk indicates the commencement of risk arises due to change in the governing
body of a country and therefore poses a risk to the investors who have investments in
financial instruments like debt funds, mutual funds, equity, etc. Specific terms like
corruption, terrorism, etc., related to the politics of a country may arise due to change in a
political scenario, which further might result in a change in the regulations of the nation.
Political risk can also be termed as geopolitical risks that arise due to conflict between two
countries. There can be hindrance across the businesses and finally slash the confidence
level of the investors.
This risk may arise at any level, such as the national level, federal level, state level, etc.
Thus, based on the scenarios, political risks can be divided into two types, such as macro
risks and micro risks
MACRO RISKS
By macro risk we mean, risks affecting all the multinational firms alike.
(a)Forced Disinvestment
(b)Unwelcomed Regulations
Forced disinvestment may take place for variety of reasons such as:
(a) that the government believes that it may make better utilization resources,
(b)it feels that such a take over may improve the image of the government,
(c) government wants to control these resources for strategic or developmental reasons
The forced disinvestments are legal under international law as long as it is accompanied by
adequate compensations.
Usually takeovers and nationalisation are done as a matter of political philosophy. While
doing so, a general policy of takeover or nationalisation is announced with a package of
compensation.
FORCED DISINVESTMENT
The company owners are asked to withdraw from the management for announced
compensation which usually does not match with the expectation of the owners of
company.
Takeovers and nationalisations are usually done when the ideological base of the
government changes from right or centrist to socialist or to communist ideology.
This step may be taken by governments because of political rivalry among nations
or because of idealistic shift in government’s political philosophy.
UNWELCOMED REGULATIONS
These regulations may relate to the tax laws, ownership, management, repatriation
“of profits, reinvestment, limitations on employment and location.
In doing so, the government may become liberal towards MNCs for some
investments for some time and as soon as the objective is served, the returns from
the project may drop due to unwe1comed regulations
INTERFACE WITH OPERATIONS
Interface with operations refer to any government activity that makes it difficult for business
to operate effectively
The governments generally engage in these kinds of activities when they believe that a
foreign company’s operation could be detrimental to local development or would harm the
political interest of the government
The political risk due to government interface with the business is difficult to assess and
manage because the actions are usually done in a subtle way
SOCIAL STRIFE
In any country there may be social strife arising due to ethnic, racial, religious, tribal or
civil tensions or natural calamities such as drought, etc. may cause economic
dislocation.
The economic policies of the government are geared to achieve sustainable rate of growth in
per capita, gross national product, full employment, price stability external balance and fair
distribution of income.
The policies through which these objectives are to be achieved are as follows:
• Monetary Policies
• Fiscal Policies
• Trade Policies and Economic controls
• Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate Policy
• Economic Development Policies
MONETARY POLICY
Through monetary policy, government wants to control the cost and availability of domestic
credit and long term capital as a means of achieving the national economic priorities
The multinational corporation can circumvent the policy by turning to the parent.
If credit flow is restricted and it has become costlier, the MNC can implement its spending
plans with the help of parent but local competitors face the crunch thus changing the
competitive position of the domestic companies.
National policy is thus frustrated when large amounts of foreign currency is changed into
domestic currency for buy-outs or for speculative purposes.
FISCAL POLICY
To attract FDI the government commits tax concession and some times even provide
subsidies.
After some time when the government wants to achieve revenue targets, because of
the commitments the MNCs are insulated, therefore the achievement falls short of
targets.
TRADE POLICY AND ECONOMIC PROTECTIONS
Nationalistic economic policies are often made to protect domestic industry.
To protect domestic industry from competition tariff and non-tariff barriers are used.
Although, negotiations under GATT have reduced level of tariff barriers, but nontariff barriers remain.
Non-tariff barriers restrict imports by some procedure other than direct financial costs.
These barriers are difficult to identify because these barriers may be in the name of ecological balance,
health, safety, quality and other social clauses and security.
In Uruguay Round, the removal of non-tariff barriers was the main issue.
Balance of payment problems: Repatriation by MNCs put pressure on the much needed foreign
exchange resources.
The outflow is in the form of dividend, management fees, royalty, etc. which puts pressure on balance of
payment. This makes the balance of payment situation more bad, therefore the governments are forced
to regulate the activities of MNC.
ECONOMIC POLICY AND GOAL CONFLICTS
Infant industry argument or old industry arguments are sometimes advanced as valid
arguments for protective tariffs or restrictions on foreign investments, even though
many industries are protected long after they have matured.
India, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina induct indigenisation clauses in the agreements
with MNCs.
Corruption is endemic to developing countries. If these bribes are not paid, either
the projects are not cleared or delayed through bureaucratic system to make the
project infructuous.
Delay in clearing the project costs the company and the nation alike.
SOCIAL RISKS
Social risk for a business includes actions that affect the communities around them
Examples include labor issues, human rights violations within the workforce, and corruption
by company officials
Public health issues can also be a concern as they can impact absenteeism and worker
morale
Political uncertainty can be a social risk if the company doesn’t have a good understanding of
the local power structure and who the power brokers are.
For example, a business trying to open a new location can run into zoning issues with the
local community planning board
Companies that have problems with social risk face political backlash, public outcry, and a
damaged legal standing and may not be sustainable in the long term.
SOCIO-CULTURAL RISKS
There are various socio-cultural factors that significantly affect the economic activity as well
as the performance of multinational companies.
The key socio-cultural factors that have a major impact on the operation of the multinational
companies are:
➢ Culture
➢ Language
➢ Religion
➢ Level of education
➢ Customer preferences
CULTURE
The languages difficulties can be reduced by appointing expatriates on the top managerial
positions in the local subsidiary or nationals that have good knowledge of parent company’s
language and corporate culture.
The presence of more than one language in a given country is an indicator of diversity in its
population.
RELIGION
Religion is considered as “a socially shared set of beliefs, ideas, and actions that relate to a
reality that cannot be verified empirically yet affects the course of natural and human events-a
way of life woven around people’s ultimate concerns”.
In many countries around the world, religion plays a significant role in people’s life. Religion
even determines the way people think of work. Consequently, religion considerably affects on
business activity and corporate culture.
Many companies adapt their working process according to a predominant religion of a given
country in terms of the holidays, working hours, food habits, a way of dressing, etc
Multinational companies, for instance, should be aware of religious holidays in each country
where they operate.
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
Education significantly affects the lifestyle of a population of any country in the world, the way of
their thinking, their attitude toward work, etc.
Education level and level of literacy of population of a given country are indicators of the quality
of their potential workforce
Economic potential and progress of any country depend on the education of its population.
Implications:
The needs and tastes of consumers in various countries are significantly becoming similar
(Global convergence)
As a result of the spread of global communication and facilitated travel opportunities, certain
social behaviors are getting similar globally
Today, people around the world watch same movies, listen to the same music, play the same
video games and use the same Internet websites
Therefore, many multinational companies with global strategy offer same or very similar
products in many various countries. As result, global market convergence is created whereby
the world is considered as a global market of same products and services.
ECONOMIC RISKS
Economic risk is referred to as the risk exposure of an investment made in a foreign country
due to changes in the business conditions or adverse effect of macroeconomic factors like
government policies or collapse of the current government and significant swing in the
exchange rates.
Types:
1. Sovereign Risk
3. Credit Risk
ECONOMIC RISKS
1. Sovereign risks: Sovereign Risk is the risk that a government cannot repay its debt and default on its
payments. When a government becomes bankrupt, it directly impacts the businesses in the country.
Sovereign Risk is not limited to a government defaulting but also includes the political unrest and
change in the policies made by the government. A change in government policies can impact the
exchange rate, which might affect the business transactions, resulting in a loss where the business
was supposed to make a profit.
2. Unexpected Swing in Exchange Rate: When the market moves considerably, it affects international
trade. This can be due to speculation or the news that can cause a fall in demand for a particular
product or currency. Oil prices can significantly impact the market movement of other traded
products. Change in inflation, interest rates, import-export duties, and taxes also impact the exchange
rate. Since this directly impacts trade, exchange rates risk seeming to be a significant economic risk.
3. Credit risk: This type of sovereign risk is the risk that the counterparty will default in making the
obligation it owes. Credit risk is entirely out of control since it depends on another entity’s worthiness
to pay its debts. The counterparty’s business activities need to be monitored on a timely basis so that
the business transactions are closed at the right time without the risk of counterparty default to make
it payments.
REACTION TO RISKS
The political risk index tries to incorporate all these economic, geographical and social aspects, so that
political risk may be indicated in a concise manner. These indices measure over all business climate of a
country
Capital Flight and Political Risk: Some of the finance consultants believe that Capital flight is one good
indicator of the degree of political risk. By capital flight we mean the export of savings by a nation’s
citizens because of the fears about the safety of their capital.