REALIZAÇÃO

The Sugarcane miracle

Prof. Dr. Godofredo Cesar Vitti
Dr. em Solos e Nutrição de Plantas Cultivadas
Grupo de Apoio à Pesquisa e Extensão - GAPE
Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz”
Context in which we have lived...
Ten greatest challenges of humanity in the next 50 years are

Brazilian agriculture = Potential for solving these problems

1. Energy(*) Education(*)
2. Water(*) Democracy(*)
3. Food(*) Population(*)
4. Environment(*) Diseases(*)
5. Poverty(*) Terrorism and war(*)

* There is theoretically no order of importance between the problems, however some are in
greater evidence. Source: Alan MacDiarmid, in São Carlos, SP, april of 2005.
 Energy
Projected Energy Demand in the World (2000 to 2030)

Increase
120 Millions of barrels day-1
1.7 % year-1
(2025)
Energy Matrix
World’s consumption

80% Fossil fuel

23% 21%
36% Petroleum
Mineral Coal Natural Gas
 World Energy Matrix
Others Hydraulic
1,60% 2,50%
Nuclear
The world has an energy matrix 4,90%
composed mainly of non-renewable
sources such as coal, petroleum and
natural gas. Petroleum and
Biomass
9,80%
derivates
32%

Natural Gas
22,20%
The world's renewable energy matrix
accounts only 14%. Mineral coal
27%

Source: IEA, 2018.

Brazilian Energy Matrix
Others
renewable
6%
Mineral Coal
6%
Energy
consumption
Fuelwood and (2016)
charcoal
8%
Petroleum and
derivates Non
36% renewable
Hydraulic
12%

Sugarcane
Products Natural Gas
13% Renewable
17%
Brazil World

Source: IEA, 2018.

Brazilian Energy Matrix

Do we want this fuel future?

or this ?
 Global Competitiveness

Corn Sugarcane

8t ha-1 x 543 L = 4.344 l 80t ha-1 x 85 L = 6.800 l

anhydrous ethanol ha -1 anhydrous ethanol ha -1

Anhydrous ethanol
Reduction
Country Source Cost (US$/l) of Gases
(%)
USA Corn 0,40 18
Europe Sugar beet 0,76 35
Asia Wheat 0,59 47
Brazil Sugarcane 0,26 91
Sugarcane production
Brazil, 2018/19
8,6 million hectares
626 million metric ton of sugarcane

354,76 million ton of sugar

72,6 ton ha-1 of sugarcane

São Paulo, 2018/19

4,4 million hectares
337 million metric ton of sugarcane

258,9 million ton of sugar

76 ton ha-1 of sugarcane

Source: CONAB, 2019.
High technology areas
Usina Cerradinho
Usina São Manoel
Bioenergia
Variety: SP83-2847
Variety: SP80-1816
TCH: 185 ton ha-1

Vitti, G. C. Vitti, G. C.
Otto, R. Otto, R.
 High technology areas

Usina Coprodia Usina Coprodia

Variety: RB92-579 Meiosi area
TCH: 155 ton ha-1 78 sc/ha soybean
Variety: RB92-579
TCH: 152 ton ha-1

Vitti, G. C.
Vale, F.

Vitti, G. C.
Vale, F.
 High technology areas

Mazza, J.
Vitti, G. C.
Otto, R.
COFCO COFCO
Mechanized planting RB97-5201
Meiosi area with Crotalária First Crop: 148 ton ha-1
Potirendaba - SP COFCO
Meiosi area Second Crop: 140 ton ha-1 (estimated)
47 sc/ha soybean
 High technology areas

Vitti, G. C. Vitti, G. C.
Luz, P. H. Luz, P. H.

Usina IACO
Paraíso das Águas - MS
 High technology areas
Usina Nardini
Vista Alegre do Alto – SP
Usina Batatais
Variety: SP80-1816

Vitti, G. C.
Luz, P. H.

Vitti, G. C.
Luz, P. H.
 Demand X World population
1990 2000 2025 62% increase in food
World Population (billion) 5,20 6,20 8,30
demand
Food demand (billion ton) 1,97 2,45 3,97
Source: Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol 27, no03, March 2007.

Distribution of world population by region

1990 year: Total Population of 5.28 billion 2020 year: Projected population of 7.99 billion

North America Ex-URSS

North America 4,4%
5,3%
3,7%
Ex-URSS Europe
8,2% 8,3%
Europe
9,7% Latin America
1990 Asia and Oceania 8,9%
Latin America
2020 58,2%
Asia and
Oceania 9,3%
56,7% África
18,5%
Africa
12,8%
 Demand X world population
Current Estimated Estimated
Increase in
production demand additional
production (%)
(2005) (2025) production
Cereal 2.219,40 3.140,40 921,00 41,5
Oilseed 595,01 750,97 155,96 26,2
Perennial 242,81 321,99 70,18 28,9
Annual 352,20 437,98 85,78 24,4
Meat1 264,70 376,49 111,79 42,2
Poultry 80,00 113,70 33,76 42,2
Swine 103,40 146,80 43,60 42,2
Bovines 63,50 90,40 26,30 41,4
Coffee 7,72 9,40 1,68 21,8
Fibres 28,50 36,37 7,87 27,6
Wood 3.401,90 4.148,40 746,50 21,9
1 All meats consumed.
Source: FAO Elaboration: AGE – MAPA
Food demand: what about the animals?

Food waste
How to satisfy the demand
Increase
cultivated area
200 million hectares
Increase
Higher intensity of
productivity
3.0 to 4.5 t/ha (Cereals)
cultivation
1st and 2nd harvest
 How to increase cultivated area in short time?

Lithuania
Austria Hungary Romania Netherlands Italy Polond Estonia

Czechoslovakia
France
Ireland Greece
Agriculture area in Brazil is Belgium Ukraine
550 million ha Albania Bosnia
(32 European Countries) Portugal Croatia
Macedonia
Spain
Bulgaria Iceland
United Kingdom Yugoslavia
Germany Norway
Latvia Finland
Switzerland
Denmark
Belarus Russia
Sweden

Source: J. L. Coelho, John Deere, 2001.

Mato Grosso vs Corn Belt (USA)

Source: J. L. Coelho, John Deere, 2001.

 How to satisfy the demand

TOTAL BRAZILIAN AREA IS

851 MILLION OF HECTARES

Terminal of São Luís

Terminal of Maceió

Terminal Ilha D´àgua

106 million ha
for agriculture Terminal of São Sebastião

Terminal of Paranaguá

Source: EMBRAPA.
How to satisfy the demand

Area that Brazil

Area of cattle produces: 282
creation : 220 million ha
million ha

Area where
plant: 62
million ha
 Degraded pasture

120 million degraded

Atual Potential

Weight gain 0,2 a 0,3 kg dia-1 0,6 a 0,7 kg dia-1

Stocking 0,54 AU ha-1 6,0 a 7,0 AU ha-1

Increase grain productivity

It requests increase 55% of

cereals production
3.0 to 4.5 ton ha-1

Potencial
Short-term Potential Production
2027/28:
300,00 Million ton

Estimated Harvest Production

2018/19
Current 238,28 Million ton
Source: CONAB, 2018.
Plant interactions in crop systems

Soybean

Soybean
area

Source: Farming Peeters

HOW TO SATISFY THE DEMAND
CONTRIBUTION OF EACH ALTERNATIVE IN PERCENTAGE TERMS (BRAZIL) FOR
FOOD, FIBER AND ENERGY

Increase Increase Higher intensity of

cultivated area productivity cultivation
200 million hectares 3.0 to 4.5 t ha-1 1st and 2nd harvest
(Cereals)

55 % 31 % 14 %
Projection of food production by 2020

OCDE projects that the world is expected to increase Brazil is the country that will increase production
food production by 20% to meet demand growth by with an increase of
2020. 40% in the period.

Map of undernourished population (% of total population )

Legend
% increase in production
Leadership of Brazil in the World Ranking

Orange juice Sugar Coffee Bovine meat Soybean Chicken meat Corn Pork meat

Exportation
Production

Sources: USDA. Note: Crop 2014/2015 and 2014 to the meats. Elaboration: GV Agro.
Amount collected in 2017

Agriculture injected into the Brazilian

economy in 2017
US $ 546 billion

US$ 38.7 million

US$ 4.5 million

US$ 12.2 million

US$ 7.1 million US$ 1.6 million

US$ 6.0 million
 CONCLUSION

Brazil has land, water and climate, which are three critical natural resources. The demand
for land and water are increasing around the world.

If Brazil can implement and maintain known strategies with successful export marketing, it
will assume an important role as a producer and exporter (Food, Agro-energy and Tropical
Technology), dimensioning its economic and socio-environmental potential to the world, provided
that “good sense" prevails over ignorance.
 1) God;
2) Family;
3) Country;
4) GAPE, specially Sô and Pivôr;
5) Everybody.

THANK YOU!