Yarmouk University

Faculty of Science
Dept of Statistics
Stat 111–Introduction to PROBABILITY(1)
Course Lectures
1.1 Properties of probability
Random variable: the experiment for which the outcome cannot be predicted with
certainly before the performance.

Sample space :

Remember:
Probability : is a real-valued set function that assigns to each event in the
sample space , a number such that the following properties are satisfied:

1.
2.
3. are disjoint events , then

&

Remember: if the outcomes are equally likely, then

Example: Roll a die. the event is the odd number occur. Find .
Properties of probability:

 .
 .
 .
 .
 .


Example: If , then

Question 1.1-6 Let tow events such that .

Find:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
The meaning of some sentences in probability:

Probability of both events occour

Probability of at least one event occur
Probability of or occur
Probability of doesn’t occur
Probability of but not occur

Probability of exactly occur

Probability of either or occur

Probability of neither nor occur

Probability of exactly one event occur

Example1.1-5: A survey was taken of groups viewing habits of sporting events on

television during the last year. Let A={ watched football}, B={ watched basketball},
C={ watched baseball}. The result indicate that
. Find

Exercises:
Question 1.1 -1: Of a group of patients having injuries, 28% visit both a physical
therapist and a chiropractor and 8% visit neither. Say that the probability of visiting
a physical therapist exceeds the probability of visiting a chiropractor by 16%. What
is the probability of a randomly selected person from this group visiting a physical
therapist?
Question1.1 – 3: Draw one card at random from a standard deck of cards. The sample
space S is the collection of the 52 cards. Assume that the probability set function assigns
1/52 to each of the 52 outcomes. Let A = {x :x is a jack, queen, or king},B = {x : x is a 9,
10, or jack and x is red},C = {x : x is a club},D ={x : x is a diamond, a heart, or a spade}.
Find (a) P(A)=
(b) P(A ∩B)=
(c) P(A B)=
(d) P(C D)=
(e) P(C ∩D)=
Question1.1 –4: A fair coin is tossed four times, and the sequence ofheads and tails is
observed.
(a) List each of the 16 sequences in the sample space S.

(b) Let events A, B, C, and D be given by A = {at least3 heads}, B = {at most 2 heads},
C = {heads on the third toss}, and D = {1 head and 3 tails}. If the probability set
function assigns 1/16 to each outcome in the sample space, Find
(i) P(A)=
(ii) P(A ∩B)=
(iii)P(B)=
(iv)P(A ∩C)=
(v)P(D)=
(vi) P(A C)=
(vii)P(B ∩D)=

Question1.1-7: Given that P(A B) = 0.76 and P(A B’) = 0.87, find P(A).

HW: questions 2,8,9.

(HW) 1.1 - 2 . An insurance company looks at its auto insurance customers
and finds that (a) all insure at least one car, (b) 85% insure more than one
car, (c) 23% insure a sports car, and (d) 17% insure more than one car,
including a sports car. Find the probability that a customer selected at
random insures exactly one car and it is not a sports car.

Find

(HW) 1.1 - 8 . During a visit to a primary care physician’s office, the

probability of having neither lab work nor referral to a specialist is 0.21. Of
those coming to that office, the probability of having lab work is 0.41 and the
probability of having a referral is 0.53. What is the probability of having both
lab work and a referral?

(HW) 1.1 - 9 . Roll a fair six-sided die three times. Let A1 ={1 or 2 on the
first roll}, A2 = {3 or 4 on the second roll}, and A3 = {5 or 6 on the third
roll}. It is given that P(Ai) = 1/3, i = 1, 2, 3; P(Ai ∩ Aj) = (1/3)2, i j; and
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = (1/3)3.
(a) Use Theorem 1.1-6 to find P(A1 A2 A3)
(b) Show that P(A1 A2 A3) = 1 − (1 − 1/3)3
We know that
Now we can write

Let
 1.2 Method of enumeration
We develop counting techniques that are useful in determining the number of
outcomes in the events.

Methods of Enumeration

Sample

Order Unorder

With Without With Without

1- Multiplication principle: Suppose that an experiment E₁ has n₁ outcomes and

experiment E₂ has n₂ possible outcomes. Then the composite experiment E₁ E₂
(first E₁ then E₂). Has n₁ n₂ possible outcomes
And so on, the composite experiments E1E2…Em has n₁ n₂ nm outcomes.

Example: Toss 3 coins & 2 dice. How many possible outcomes you find.

2. Sampling without replacement occurs when an object is not replaced after it has
been selected.

Sampling with replacement occurs when an objects is selected and then replaced
before the next object is selected.
3. Definition:
If objects are selected from a set of objects, and if the order of selection is
noted, then the selected set of objects is called Ordered Sample Size .

4. If we have position are to be filled with different objects. By multiplication

principle we have (called factorial).
Remember .
Example: Find the number of possible four letter code words using the four letters
{a, b, c, d}. if the letters may be repeated.

5. The number of possible ordered sample of size r taken from a set of n objects is
when sampling without replacement.

is called permutation of objects taken at a time.

Note: .

Example: the number of possible four-letter code word selecting from the 26
letters in the alphabet in which all four letters are different.

Example: the number of ways of selecting a president, a vice president, a

secretary & a treasurer in a club consisting of 10 people.
6. Suppose that positions are to be filled with different objects then there
possible arrangements (without replacement).

7. Detention:
Each of arrangements (in a row) of different objects is called a permutation of
the objects (order without replacement)

8. Definition: ordered sample of size : is a selected set of objects from a set of

objects where the order of selecting is noted.

EXAMPLE : The number of ordered samples of 5 cards that can be drawn without
replacement from a standard deck of 52 playing cards is

P(52,5)= (52)(51)(50)(49)(48) = 52!/47!= 311,875,200

9. By multiplication principle the number of possible ordered samples of size taken

from a set of objects is when sampling with replacement.

10.Ordered Sample:

 With replacement
 Without replacement

Remark: in sampling without replacement .

In sampling with replacement can exceed .

EXAMPLE : How many 4-letter code words are possible using the letters H,O,P,E if
(a) the letters may be repeated (with replacement) 44
(b) the letters may not be repeated (without replacement) P(4,4)=4!

EXAMPLE : How many 4-letter code words are possible if

(a) the letters may be repeated (with replacement) 264
(b) the letters may not be repeated (without replacement) P(26,4)

EXAMPLE : How many ways can we select President, a Vice, secretary1 and
secratery2 from 10 people. P(10,4)

EXAMPLE : A die is rolled 5 times. The number of possible ordered samples is

(a) the numbers may be repeated (with replacement) 65 = 7776
(b) the numbers may not be repeated (without replacement)
P(6,5)=720
r=5 positions are to be filled with objects selected from n different objects
EXAMPLE : An urn contains 10 balls numbered 0, 1, 2, . . . , 9. If 4 balls are
selected one at a time and with replacement, then the number of possible ordered
samples is 104 = 10,000. Note that this is the number of four-digit integers
between 0000 and 9999, inclusive.

Q1.2-1. A boy found a bicycle lock for which the combination was unknown. The
correct combination is a four-digit number, d1d2d3d4, where di, i = 1, 2, 3, 4, is
selected from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. How many different lock combinations are
possible with such a lock?
, = 84=4096
With replacement and order
Q1.2-3. How many different license plates are possible if a state uses

(a) Two letters followed by a four-digit integer (leading zeros are permissible and
the letters and digits can be repeated)?
, 262

(b) Three letters followed by a three-digit integer? (In practice, it is possible that
certain “spellings” are ruled out.)
, 263

Sampling with replacement

Often the order of selection is not important and interest centers only on the
selected set of objects.
The number of possible samples of objects selected from objects when
sampling without replacement and the ordered not important is
and is called a combination of objects taken at time
“ choose ”

EXAMPLE : (1) Number of possible 5 cards drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards

(2) Number of possible 13 cards drawn

 binomial expansion times

is called the binomial coefficient.

Remember:

Example: The number of possible 5-card hands that are all spades (called it event A)

B: the set of outcomes in which exactly three cards are kings & exactly 2 cards are
queen.

C: the set of outcomes in which exactly 2 kings, 2 queens & one jack.

D: the set of outcomes in has four ones.

Suppose that a set of n objects where n1 are similar; n2 are similar; … ; nk are
similar and n= n1+…+ nk then the number of different arrangements can be made
from these objects are:
multinomial coefficient.

EXAMPLE : A coin is flipped 10 times and the sequence of heads and tails is
observed. The number of possible 10-tuplets that result in four heads and six tails
is

EXAMPLE : how many different letter arrangements can be made from the letters
(a) PROPOSE (b) MISSISSIPPI (c) FLUKE

Example: In orchid show, seven orchids are to be placed along one side of the
green house. There are four lavender and three white orchids. Consider only the
color of the orchids. Find the number of arrangement.

If the colors of flower are white, lavender, yellow, mauve, crimson, orange and
pink. Find the number of arrangement.

Example: Find the number of arrangement for nine orchids in line where the
flower colors are 3 white, 4 lavender and 2 yellow.
The number of possible sample of size that can be selected out of objects when
the order is irrelevant & the sampling with replacement is

Q1.2-4. The “eating club” is hosting a make-your-own sundae at which the

following are provided:

(a)(HW) How many sundaes are possible using one flavor of ice cream
and three different toppings?
=80

(b)(HW) How many sundaes are possible using one flavor of ice cream
and from zero to six toppings?

(c) How many different combinations of flavors of three scoops of ice cream are
possible if it is permissible to make all three scoops the same flavor?
Interesting to count the number of possible samples of size r=3 that
can be selected out of n=4 objects when the order is irrelevant
and when sampling with replacement.

1.2-7. In a state lottery, four digits are drawn at random one at a time with
replacement from 0 to 9. Suppose that you win if any permutation of your selected
integers is drawn. Give the probability of winning if you select
(a) 6, 7, 8, 9

(b) 6, 7, 8, 8
(c) (HW) 7, 7, 8, 8

(d) (HW) 7, 8, 8, 8

Multiplication rule of counting: Suppose that E1 has n1 outcomes, for each of

these outcomes, an E2 has n2 outcomes, …, for each of these outcomes, an Ek has
nk outcomes. Then the number of possible outcomes of the exper. (E1,…,Ek) is
n1n2…nk
Distinguishable
Order Un-Order
With Repl row
Permutation
Without Repl Combination committees
row

Methods of Enumeration
Sample

Order Unorder

With Without With Without

Replacement replacement replacement replacement
(HW)1.2-2. In designing an experiment, the researcher can often choose
many different levels of the various factors in order to try to find the best
combination at which to operate. As an illustration, suppose the researcher is
studying a certain chemical reaction and can choose four levels of
temperature, five different pressures, and two different catalysts.

(a) To consider all possible combinations, how many experiments would

need to be conducted?
or

(b) Often in preliminary experimentation, each factor is restricted to two

levels. With the three factors noted, how many experiments would need to
be run to cover all possible combinations with each of the three factors at
two levels? (Note: This is often called a 23 design.)
, = 23=8
With replacement and order

(HW)1. 2 - 5 . How many four-letter code words are possible using the
letters in IOWA if
( a ) The letters may not be repeated?
( b ) The letters may be repeated?
1.3 Conditional Probability
Example: given 20 bulbs are similar in appearance & 8 will bloom early 12 will
bloom late 13 red & 7 yellow as listed combination
Early (E) Late (L) Total
Red (R) 5 8 13
Yellow (Y) 3 4 7
Total 8 12 20
a) Probability of bulb will be red

b) Probability of red bulb if it result in a bulb that will bloom early.

Definition:
The conditional probability of an event A, given that event B has occurred, is
defined by

Provided that .

Definition:
The probability that two events, A and B, both occur is given by the
multiplication rule,

,
Provided or by

Provided .
1) It is interesting to note that conditional probability satisfies the axioms for a
probability function, namely, with ,
(a) ;
(b) ;
(c) If A1 , A2 , A3 , … are mutually exclusive events, then
₁ ₂ ₁ ₂

2)

Ex: If , . Find
[6/7]

Ex: If , . Find
[1/2]

Ex: If . Find [1]

Example:
If , , and , then
;

Example:

Find:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10) |A)
11)
Example:
A pair of fair four –sided dice is rolled and the sum is determined. Let A be the
event that a sum of 3 is rolled, and let B be the event that a sum of 3 or a sum of
5 is rolled. In a sequence of rolls, the probability that a sum of 3 is rolled before a
sum of 5 is rolled can be thought of as the conditional probability of a sum of 3
given that a sum of 3 or 5 has occurred; that is, the conditional probability of A
given B is

Example 1.3-5:If you have 25 balloons of which 10 are yellow, 8 are red and 7
are green. A player throws darts at the balloons to win a prize. Given that the first
balloon hit is yellow. What is the probability that the next balloon hit is also yellow?

Example: A bowl contains 7 blue chips & 3 red chips. Two chips are to be drawn
without replacement. Compute the probability that the first drawn result is a red
(say A) & the second is blue (say B)
Example:
From an ordinary deck of playing cards, cards are to be drawn successively at
random and without replacement. The probability that the third spade appears on
the sixth draw is computed as follows: Let A be the event of two spades in the first
five cards drawn, and let B be the event of a spade on the sixth draw. Thus, the
probability that we wish to compute is . It is reasonable to take

and

The desired probability, , is the product of those numbers:

 The multiplication rule can be extended to three or more events.

Example :
Four cards are to be dealt successively at random and without replacement from an
ordinary deck of playing cards. The probability of receiving, in order, a spade, a
heart, a diamond, and a club is

Example
A grade school boy has five blue and four white marbles in his left pocket and four
blue and five white marbles in his right pocket. If he transfers one marble at
random from his left to his right pocket, what is the probability of his then drawing
a blue marble from his right pocket? For notation, let BL, BR, and WL denote
drawing blue from left pocket, blue from right pocket, and white from left pocket,
respectively.
Then

is the desired probability.

 Example: Insurance company sells several types of insurance policies ( auto,
homeowner). Let A1 : only auto policy, A2 : only a homeowner policy & A3 : both
auto and homeowner policy. Select a person randomly, suppose
. be the person will renew at least one of these policies,
. given that the person selected at random
has an auto or homeowner. What is the conditional probability that the person will
renew at least one of those policies?

Q1. 3 - 4 . Two cards are drawn successively and without replacement from an
ordinary deck of playing cards. Compute the probability of drawing
(a) Two hearts
(b)A heart on the first draw and a club on the second draw
(c) A heart on the first draw and an ace on the second draw

OR
Q1. 3 - 6 . A researcher finds that, of 982 men who died in 2002, 221 died from
some heart disease. Also, of the 982 men, 334 had at least one parent who had
some heart disease. Of the latter 334 men, 111 died from some heart disease. A
man is selected from the group of 982. Given that neither of his parents had some
heart disease, find the conditional probability that this man died of some heart
disease.
at least one parent who had some heart disease?
Yes No Total
Died 111 110 221
Not 223 538 761
Total 334 648 982

1.3-7(same as 1-3.5). An urn contains four colored balls: two orange and two
blue. Two balls are selected at random without replacement, and you are told that
at least one of them is orange. What is the probability that the other ball is also
orange?

1. 3 - 10. A single card is drawn at random from each of six well-shuffled decks of
playing cards. Let A be the event that all six cards drawn are different.
( a ) Find P(A)
( b ) Find the probability that at least two of the drawn cards match

1. 3 - 12. You are a member of a class of 18 students. A bowl contains 18 chips: 1

blue and 17 red. Each student is to take 1 chip from the bowl without replacement.
The student who draws the blue chip is guaranteed an A for the course.
( a ) If you have a choice of drawing first, fifth, or last, which position would you
choose? Justify your choice on the basis of probability.
It doesn’t matter
( b ) Suppose the bowl contains 2 blue and 16 red chips. What position would you
now choose?
Show that
1)
2) If then
3) If A, B are disjoint events then
4)
5) If and then

HW) 1.3-2 . The following table classifies 1456 people by their gender and by whether or
not they favor a gun law.
Male (S1) Female (S2) Totals
Favor (A1) 392 649 1041
Oppose (A2) 241 174 415
Totals 633 823 1456
Compute the following probabilities if one of these 1456 persons is selected randomly:
(a) P(A1) (b) P(A1 | S1) (c) P(A1 | S2)
(d) Interpret your answers to parts (b) and (c): The proportion of women is greater than
the proportion of men (in favoring a gun law)

(HW)1. 3 - 5 . Suppose that the alleles for eye color for a certain male fruit fly are (R, W)
and the alleles for eye color for the mating female fruit fly are (R, W), where R and W
represent red and white, respectively. Their offspring receive one allele for eye color from
each parent.
(a) Define the sample space of the alleles for eye color for the offspring.

(b) Assume that each of the four possible outcomes has equal probability. If an offspring
ends up with either two white alleles or one red and one white allele for eye color, its eyes
will look white. Given that an offspring’s eyes look white, what is the conditional probability
that it has two white alleles for eye color?
Let ,
(HW) 1. 3 - 8. An urn contains 17 balls marked LOSE and 3 balls marked WIN. You and an
opponent take turns selecting a single ball at random from the urn without replacement.
The person who selects the third WIN ball wins the game. It does not matter who selected
the first two WIN balls.
( a ) If you draw first, find the probability that you win the game on your second draw.
Y:You, O: opponent

( b ) If you draw first, find the probability that your opponent wins the game on his second
draw.

(HW) 1. 3 - 16. Bowl A contains three red and two white chips, and bowl B contains four
red and three white chips. A chip is drawn at random from bowl A and transferred to bowl B.
Compute the probability of then drawing a red chip from bowl B.
 1.4 Independent Events

Definition: for certain pairs of events, the occurrence of one of them not change
the probability of the occurrence of the other, they are said to be independent
events.

Example: Flip a fair coin twice & observe the sequence of heads & tails. Let
A: {head on the first flip}, B:{tail on the second flip}, C:{tail on both flips}

since occurrence of C has changed the probability of B.

the occurrence of A has not changed the probability of

B, so we say A & B are independent.

 Events A and B are independent if and only if

Otherwise, A and B are called dependent.

Example:
A red die and white die are rolled. Let, ;
, ,
1. Are A and B independent?
Yes, independent

2. Are C and D independent?

the C and D are dependent events
 Theorem:

If A and B are independent events, then the following pairs of events are also
independent

Definition:

Events A, B and C are mutually independent if and only if the following two
conditions hold:

(a) A, B and C are pair wise independent; that is,

,

(b)

 If A1, A₂, and A3 are mutually independent events, then

₁ ₂ ₁ ₂ )
₁) ₂)

Example:

An urn contains 4 balls numbered 1,2,3 and 4. One ball is to be drawn at random
from the urn.

Let , and

1. Are A,B and C pairwise independent ?

 Yes, A,B and C are called pairwise independent

2. Are A,B and C are mutually independent?

Then the second condition of mutually is not hold. So, A, B and c are not
mutually independent.

Example 1.4-6:

A fair six-sided die is rolled six independent times. Let,

Ai : be the event that side i is observed on the roll,

B = the event that at least one match occurs.

Find

is the event that no match occur,

…….. )

Example 1.4-7: The probability that a company’s workforce has at least one
accident during a certain month is (0.01)k, where k is the number of days in the
month. Assume that the number of accidents is independent from month to month.
Find the probability that the first accident is in April.
 Example 1.4-8: Three inspectors look at a critical component of a product. The
probability of detecting them are 0.99, 0.98 & 0.96 respectively. If we assume
independence, then find:
a. the probability of at least one detecting the defect.

b. The probability of only one finding the defect.

c. The probability of exactly two find the defect.

d. The probability of all find the defect.

Example 1.4-9:

Suppose that on five consecutive days“ instant winner” lotteries ticket is

purchased, and probability of winning is on each day. Assuming independent trail
Find the probability of purchasing two winning tickets and three losing tickets
Independent
 Q1.4-1. Let A and B be independent events with P(A) =0.7 and P(B) = 0.2.
Compute
(a) P(A ∩ B), (b) P(A B), and (c) P(A B). [(a) 0.14; (b) 0.76; (c)
0.86]
Ex: Let are independent events with , . Find
[0.40]

Q1.4-2.Let P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.6.

(a) Find P(A B) when A and B are independent. [0.72]
(b) Find P(A|B) when A and B are mutually exclusive [0]
Q1.4-9: Let are independent events with , , .
Find
1) Prob. At least one of the 3 events occur.

2) Prob. Exactly one of the occurs

3) Prob. Exactly Two of the occurs
4) Prob. of and but not
5) Prob. None of them occurs
6) Prob. At most one of them

Q1.4-11 (a) are disjoint. Are always independent? No

When; or they are independent

(b) can and ever be indep. when
when

Q1.4-12 Toss an unbiased coin five times. Compute

1) 2) Prob. Three heads occurring in the five trials

Q1.4-13 A box contains 2 red and 4 white balls. A random sample of size 5 is
drawn from the box with rep(indep). Find the prob 1) 2)

three Ws in the sample

Q1.4-15 A box contains 10 red and 10 black balls. Balls are to be drawn
successively from the box. Find the probability that the fourth White ball appears on
the sixth draws
With replacement Without replacement
Ex: Indep always holds if or and , when
then

Ex: any event with ( ) are independent ( ,

)

Ex: Let are indep events and Show that the events
( ) and ( ) are not indep.

Ex: A box contains 3 red and 6 black balls. Balls are to be drawn successively and
without replacem. Find the probability that the third Red ball appears on the
seventh draws

A={Red ball on the 7th drawn}; B={2 red balls in the first 6 draws}

Ex: A box contains 8 white balls numbered as 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8, 9. And 9 blue

numbered balls as 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9. Two balls are drawn randomly and
without replacement from the box. Find prob that first drawn ball is blue and the
second drawn ball is numbered by 3

OR

(HW)1. 4 - 3. Let A and B be independent events with P(A) = 1/4 and P(B) = 2/3.
Compute
(a) P(A∩B), (b) P(A∩B’), (c) P(A’ ∩ B’), (d) P[(A B)’], and (e) P(A’ ∩ B’).
(a) 1/6; (b) 1/12; (c) 1/4; (d) 1/4; (e) 1/2.

(HW)1. 4 - 5. If P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A B) = 0.9, are A and B independent
events? Why or why not?

(HW)1.4-7. Each of three football players will attempt to kick a field goal from the 25-yard
line. Let Ai denote the event that the field goal is made by player i, i = 1, 2, 3. Assume that
A1, A2, A3 are mutually independent and that P(A1) = 0.5, P(A2) = 0.7, P(A3) = 0.6.
( a ) Compute the probability that exactly one player is successful.
( b ) Compute the probability that exactly two players make a field goal (i.e., one misses).

(HW) 1. 4 - 8. Die A has orange on one face and blue on five faces, Die B has orange on
two faces and blue on four faces, Die C has orange on three faces and blue on three faces.
All are fair dice. If the three dice are rolled, find the probability that exactly two of the
three dice come up orange.
Die A: 1 (Orange) 5 (blue) Die B: 2 (Orange) 4 (blue) Die C: 3 (Orange)
3 (blue)

(HW)1. 4 - 16 . An urn contains five balls, one marked WIN and four marked LOSE. You
and another player take turns selecting a ball at random from the urn, one at a time. The
first person to select the WIN ball is the winner. If you draw first, find the probability that
you will win if the sampling is done
(a) With replacement

(b) Without replacement

(HW)1. 4 - 17. Each of the 12 students in a class is given a fair 12-sided die. In addition,
each student is numbered from 1 to 12.
(a) If the students roll their dice, what is the probability that there is at least one “match”
(e.g., student 4 rolls a 4)?

(b) If you are a member of this class, what is the probability that at least one of the other
11 students rolls the same number as you do?
1.5 Bayes’ theorem

Example 1.5-1:

Bowl B1 contains two red and four white chips, bowl B2 contains one red and two
white chips, and bowl B3 contains five red and four white chips. Say that the
probabilities for selecting the bowls are not the same but are given by
, where B1,B2, and B3 are the events that bowls
B1,B2, and B3 are respectively chosen. The experiment consists of selecting a
bowl with these probabilities and then drawing a chip at random from that bowl. Let
us compute the probability of event R, drawing a red chip – say, P(R). Find P(R)
…?

Suppose now that the outcome of the experiments is a red chip, but we do not
know from which bowl it was drawn. Accordingly, we compute the conditional
probability that the chip was drawn from bowl B1, namely, . From the
definition of conditional probability and the preceding result, we have

Similarly,

And
 Example 1.5-2:

In a certain factory, machines I, II, and III are all producing springs of the same
length. Of their production, machines I, II, and III respectively produce 2%, 1%,
and 3% defective springs. Of the total production of springs in the factory, machine
I produces 35%, machine II produces 25%, and machine III produces 40%. If
one spring is selected at random from the total springs produced in a day.

1. Find P(D)

2. If the selected spring is defective, the conditional probability that it was

produced by machine III is?

Q1.5-2. Bean seeds from supplier A have an 85% germination rate and those from
supplier B have a 75% germination rate. A seed-packaging company purchases
40% of its bean seeds from supplier A and 60% from supplier B and mixes these
seeds together.
a) Find the probability P(G) that a seed selected at random from the mixed seeds
will germinate

b) Given that a seed germinates, find the probability that the seed was purchased
from supplier A
Q1.5-3. A doctor is concerned about the relationship between blood pressure and
irregular heartbeats. Among her patients, she classifies blood pressures as high,
normal, or low and heartbeats as regular or irregular and finds that
(a) 16% have high blood pressure;
(b) 19% have low blood pressure;
(c) 17% have an irregular heartbeat;
(d) of those with an irregular heartbeat, 35% have high blood pressure; and
(e) of those with normal blood pressure, 11% have an irregular heartbeat.
What percentage of her patients have a regular heartbeat and low blood pressure?

blood pressures
High Normal Low Total
regular 0.1005 0.5785 0.151 0.83
0.35(0.17)= 0.11(0.65)=
irregular 0.039 0.17
0.0595 0.0715
Total 0.16 0.65 0.19 1

(HW) 1.5-1. Bowl B1 contains two white chips, bowl B2 contains two red chips, bowl B3
contains two white and two red chips, and bowl B4 contains three white chips and one red
chip. The probabilities of selecting bowl B1, B2, B3, or B4 are 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, and 1/8,
respectively. A bowl is selected using these probabilities and a chip is then drawn at
random. Find
( a ) P(W), the probability of drawing a white chip =21/32
( b ) P(B1|W), the conditional probability that bowl B1 had been selected, given that a

white chip was drawn. =16/21

(HW)1. 5 -5. At a hospital’s emergency room, patients are classified and 20% of them are
critical, 30% are serious, and 50% are stable. Of the critical ones, 30% die; of the serious,
10% die; and of the stable, 1% die. Given that a patient dies, what is the conditional
probability that the patient was classified as critical?

(HW)1. 5 - 14. Two processes of a company produce rolls of materials: The rolls of
Process I are 3% defective and the rolls of Process II are 1% defective. Process I produces
60% of the company’s output, Process II 40%. A roll is selected at random from the total
output. Given that this roll is defective, what is the conditional probability that it is from
Process I?