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Shortage of Seafarers in Europe

- Causes and Solutions

MA Shuo
World Maritime University (WMU)

March 2010, Brussels


Problem Re-defined

• It might be an educational problem


• It might be a social problem
• It might be a policy problem
• It might be an economic problem
• It might be a problem of all factors combined
• But there might be a root cause
• I will take a look at the economics
Shortage of Seafarers: A Global Concern?

“Serious Shortage of Ship Officers in the


near future”, is a concern shared by many:
• Industry: BIMCO, ISF, Intertanko, Lloyd’s
List - Manning Conferences
• Government and inter-government: Japan,
the UK, IMO, OECD, EU
• Research agencies and press: Drewry, IAMU,
Lloyd’s List, Fairplay, Trade-winds,
An Economic Explanation

• As international seafaring market is a


competitive market, the “law of demand
and supply” should apply, which means
that …
• Any change of equilibrium of demand
and supply shall lead to price changes
• And a shortage of supply should lead to
an increase in price
A Paradox

• There has not been a corresponding increase in


the prices of seafaring supply
• In some specific shipping sectors, the manning
costs had even dropped between 1996 and 2005
• Compared to other operating costs, of eg. an
Aframax tanker, the manning costs increased the
least between 2002 and 2005
• Manning costs in some sectors went up in 2007,
2008, but in the long-run, they have been stable
Explanations

• Open, global seafarer market reality vs.


local and closed market concept
• Market fluctuation and technology
development
• Deficiencies with study methods
• As long as sea career is economically
unattractive to young Europeans,
situation won’t change much
Suggestions: An Integrated Approach

• Seafaring should be seen as “education” rather


than as “profession”
• A policy is needed to really “validate” sea
experience for a range of shore-based positions
• MET should systematically provide “enabling
programs” needed for the shore-based positions
• An integrated approach: Policy-Employer-
MET

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