Fin Prep

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 40

FIN PREP

VALUATION PROCESS

1) Determine the method


of valuation

2) DDM
3) DCF

A) Estimating Revenues - calculate Growth rate

B) calculate FCF → Decide btw FCFF and FCFE

c) Calculate ECAPM other method) &


of capital
cost → COE or CoD

CAPM = Rft BCRM -

Rf )
↳ calculate RF
↳ Calculate Beta
↳ calculate market risk Premium
D) calculate terminal value
E) calculate the value cpreseut Value )
Risk free rate of return
valuation -
Nominal terms

Ignore inflation
Real terms -
-
Real discountrate

→ How
risky
is this
company , for the
-f→ Assumed to
a
be dueiified

Hold a lot
of shares
,
can impactpeirce
&

The risk shock is added to a


of any
diversified portfolio .

Risk free →

Issuing entity should have no


default risk
No reinvestment risk

Be considerate Time horizon


of
.

Ef
: A US $ risk
free rate
→ for valuation
,
cash
flows extend forever → use Max period .

Tf valuation in real Huns →


use red rate bond

when there are too


many options

use the lowest to
get close to a
default freak

If the
government has default risk (not AAA rated ) Reduce the defaultspread
a co -
.

⑨ Brazil $denominated
How to
find default spread Bond mate
-

[¥; , pig
C-) UST Bill -

Bond mate
.

, .
.
=
;)
② CDs market →
directly get default spread
.

③ India doesn't have either



sovereign →
rating lookup table -

Aug spread
for
each
rating

If¥ I → d-
country risk score
→ Another rated
same score
.
county with

Min * Inflation spread into)# country Risk poem spread of country


req = Rfus finding -
Us -
Default
a
(not considered if we issue $ denominated Bond) →
Equity markets risk ( India
-
Us )

Use to year 9 bond YTM as a RF


(minimum expected return)
-
Equity risk premiun
Premium an investor expects to earn over risk
free rate (Because
you
are
doing Equity
.

Historical -

Premium
historically earned aboues Rf .

① whenever estimate
from past ,
its statistical and there is
always stet error
.

② Biasness based on historical success of stock markets .

BONDVAWA.TW#YTM--7PUofct- = Price
of
Bond

S&P 500
@ 2013

M2CT-P②
-

Last
year
's cash
flow
( Expected of ) -

Dividends &
I
Buy Beeks .

Project expected growthrate


-

use this data calculate


buy
to - backs

start with
default spread
→ Std dev in
.

county 's Eg .
→ Std .
deer in

Index $ denominated bond

[email protected]
to mature market premium
BETA
2 Approaches
=
Historical data Type of business Lois octonary 4s necessity
from fundamental
Bete -

market prices
on
characteristics -

operating leverage
of the individual - Financial leverage .

investment
① cyclical firms
-

higher Beta ③ High financial leverage


Regression of returns canto ,
Housing ) ↳
High Beta

on investments
against (interest expenses)
② High
returns on market
operating leverage
in
index -

High variance
of Income
Rj = at b Rm ↳
higher Beta

The
t
slope of regression
(good times become great , bad times become terrible )
is the risk of stock BoltomupBdas_
f-
also called Beta 1) what business
you're in
many publicly traded companies
Find as in the sector .

Find out their Average them


stock returns
regression Betas → .

= Return e- Petrovna , Hsiu e-


-
Take out the
leverage effects (Both op & Find -
Unlearned p
Return t -1
2) what is the revenue mix ? →

Choices mix calculate Betas


If multiple businesses →
Aug
use revenue to w -
.
.

Period tong Ys short


3) How
-


much DIE ratio →
return the Beta
-

Returns : DIWIMIA tooling its


,
non toad .

Mkt Index : National Tuternationofl


,

sector specific

Q bottom Betas 3
why up
And : we replaced the regression beta of
have Ico .

regression
with Beta
of too cos

I mistakes
statistically as the sample size increase Average out
my
.

,
,

$ business =/ of business another business


A
of revenue in one a- $ in

what multiple of revenues these


companies are
trading at .
imaiply the multiples with the revenue

of each business and tax


DIE ratio & where
use that as weights .
Use the co .

rate
of geography
t
majority of tax

pays
.
CAPM Beta

why regression is not


always useful
-
Answer depends upon how to set
up the regression ( choices
matter)
There is standard Beta
of
-

error .

The median standard euros can be as


high as • 20 .

company impacts give


-
How much one the index can also erroneous results .

BoltomupBdas_
? many publicly traded companies
in the sector
1) what
business
you're in Find as
-

Find out their


regression Betas →
Average them .

Take out the


leverage effects C.Both op & Find -
Unleaded p

2) what is the revenue mix ? → If multiple businesses → use revenue mix to calculate w -

Aug
.
Betas .

3) How much DIE ratio →


return the Beta

Q bottom Betas 3
why up
And : we have replaced the regression Beta of Ico .

regression
with Beta
of too cos

I mistakes
statistically as the sample size increase Average out
my
.

,
,

$ of business another business


A
of revenue in one business =/ a- $ in

what multiple of revenues these


companies are
trading at shaltply
.
the multiples with the revenue

of each business and tax


DIE ratio q when
use that as weights .
Use the co .

rate
of geography
it
pays majorly of tax
.
GROWTH ( Reinvestment or
efficiency
d) Historical (2) Fundamental determinants
Cmost suitable for
of growth
.

stable firms )
Growth in
equity earnings
Hirth matic Aug
=

growth in EPs

iikeometic.my
.

iil better than


is ij Assumption → New
egsh . not issued
but it considers thus Ain net Income =p in EPs
only
start and
,

ending
points if we relax this assumption
in Eps
-

it
ignores any gin net income
-4g
recent
changes
reinvests
How much
equity firm
There is a lot noise back into the business
of
-

&
in historical growth
Net Capet + 9 in wc
ROE in broader
rates .
sense
( reinvested)
Equity mean that
-

Little to no correlation A leverage


A ROE

btw historical U t ) int rate


and future if PAT
margin 3-
-

rates
growth .

ROE Roc
DIE CROC illtt
= + -

b ( Roc + DIE LROC ill-11-1)


g
=
-

how to estimate Reinvestment rates ( young Firms


1) Estimate revenue
growth
2) estimate a
target margin (historical Industry) or

3) calculate
neg
.
review
using sales to operate
costofbebl-YAfoyY-IYeasybear.mg
what is debt ? ① contractual commitment
② tax
③ Damage
deductible
on
default -
instrument

@ which borrow reflect default and


debt Rate
today
cost risk
of you
can
= →

the level interest rates


of
Because I assume that the rollover cost in the market .

short turn debt will be


of
same as
long
term cost debt
of
CoD =
Rf tDefaultspnead& charged by Bank / Bondholder for credit aisle

&
to ① of
How co :
has credit
rating -
use that to identify
② of co .
has a bond issued -
that
gives me rate

traded ?
what if not
Rating
co . is -

own

Find out Interest


coverage ratio ( EB it / Int expenses) -

get mating
.
-

consider the risk


you
can also
country default
COST OF CAPITAL :
we use market value
weights .
Terminal Value
① liquidation valuation → @ the end Assets ( Lets say post 5 years)
you liquidate
the
,

② Stable Growth Model Cfs @ stable rate forever


grow
→ .

60 Multiples Approach - Menes use -


Not an intrinsic valuation - Relative

STABLE GROWTH
can't exceed that
1T€ Do not exceed the
cap →
growth mate
of Economy
↳ use Rfrate- Exp Fugit .

Exp Real g
.

t
for growth
same
rate

11¥ Correlation btw current & future growth .


Don't wait too
many years for growth .

look @ recent gin revenues , look @ industry competitive


,
Advantage

,#3__ Excess returns → Roc in


perpetuity Compare with Coc & g
-
.

Roc will
from competition
downward pressure
come under .

If you
cannot maintain this Roc in steady
Roc should go to Coc doesn't matter Terminal value will
state
g remain same
.

,
.

#4__ In stable period → lower Coe, low Bela ~ 1


, Higher debt .
Free Cash Flow
Dividends Potential Dividends
Cash flow to
equity investors -
+
Buybacks + + net
cashflow from
Debt
cash to entire business Op Income Tax
flow -
-
-

STEP 1 :
EARNINGS

months is the best


way Cif year paned)
than Ya
Trailing
-
12 more

normalise the earnings ( commodity or cyclical company)


-

categorization of expenses ( teases and R&D expenses) cleanse of Financial exp


item
op
-

cap exp
-

Impact of capitalized teases : -

Non -
rec .

Exp .

-
Discount the lease commitment @ using
PV cod discount rate .

what happens to lump-sum lease


payment @ end
of 45 ?
↳ Take lease commitment i

]
over
fr
i value
any & see
-

compare
bump sum commitment @ end of Jr 5 how many
years thelumpsupm
Hands .

↳ teases become debt

↳ Get
of capital
true cost

Debt ratio M CoD &


,

↳ when cap Asset, have to


depreciation
you treat change
bases as
you
Restate the
op Income → need tease exp ⇐ depreciation
↳ when
you capitalize
leases , it becomes part of invested capital .

The net
effect can be + we
,
-
we
,
neutral based on cost -

return
relation in the
company
.

Net Income -
Net Reinvestment
Research and Dev Expense -
CAPITALISATION + Net Debt Raised
-

Retrospective effect riff

step 8 Give ammoslisable life for R&D ( Take average) EDIT 4- tax ) + Deep
1 on rate -
r-cinv-wc.IN

what back ?
step 2 8 were R&D exp each .

year going FCFE = faff -


Tnt G- tax rat / t

step 3 : write
off each
year based on
amortization life met

Borrowing
- .

① op Income D Add R&D ⇐ Depth income


consequence é 9 to
op
: →
or

② Coc doesn't A
including unaonoitized R&D exp in cap, As roc ( thef-he)
,
my

THESE :
Always use
marginal tax rate Effective tax rates !
This will lower
your
cash
flow These
defer the taxes which
will be paid
eventually
start effective go marginal ?
,

REINVESTMENT
Net + current Amortization
Adjusted net apex apex year
R&D exp
of
-
=

Research Assets

Acquisition of other
firms should also be
adjusted .

Adjusted net
apex
=
Net capex + Acg of other
.
- Amortization of
firms such
expenses .
Price to Book value

Po DPI
EBP÷q
ROE
=
; if =

gn
r-

BVOXROExpayouetra-lioxcl-gnu-gr.PL
Po =

= PBU = ROE ✗
Payout ratio ✗ Cltgn )
,
rrgn

If POE are based onfuture expected earnings ; g =


G- payout ✗ POE
R0E✗Payoutratio_
Bpg PBV
P¥= =RgIg÷
=
=
- PBV

r -

gn
PBI
- Payoutratio
pB# WE = Roe - I

✗ s
KOE

growth
WE >

WE <
ROE

ROE
-


< l

>I

> ROE ( companion variable )

f- High POE -

High PBV

4) EV / EBITDA

very popular I¥_g


this is -

EVE
CoC
EV / EBITDA # Expected 8 EU = EBITDA a-E) + Deplt) Cex dwcap -
-

> tax rate Wace


g
-

> 1 Reinvestmentrate divide EBITDA


Roc
by

higher laxuate
why
didn't

we
lower EBITDA
care about t in PE ?
Ev_
EBITDA
=

WACC
g
- t.DK/EB1tDA--nexafYgB---g&I
WACC
g
- -g
-

we were already looking @ PAT

① for
any g ,
how much R ?

Very high
R
for long ?
③ Very Risky to -

, very Risky country → High Coc → low multiple .


Tax rate -

Multiple- Inverse
Reinvestment Multiple Inverse (as a given growth)
- -

5) EU/sales multiple -
Rainestmentrate
-> COC

south
->

COMPANION UARIABLE
-> rate. (DesicRelation
PIB-ROE
EUIfitcap -

Roc
EU sales of margin
Determinants
i m m e
oftips one
Equity value and EV
Normal
Equity value =
Market cap = sticker Price M Price ✗ shares otsbiluted
of
= . no -

Enterprise value =
Actual cost =
Eg .
+ Debt -
cash

1
Anything that will need us to set
funds aside -

Anything
that will save funds for us)

thus ,

EV =
Equity value + Debt +
Preferred stock -1 Non -

controlling hit -
cash 9 Cash Eg .

-
DILUTED cell Ch .

01s
method for options
-

Use
treasury shock

money options get exercised


-

Anime all the in -

the

shares
Company buys back some
from money need a remaining
-

forms dilution

::÷÷:* .*÷I!÷
CONVERTIBLE
.
BONDS -
All or
nothing

straight Add
- "
Rsv

level Add4 / else


certain
nothing
PERFORMANCE SHARES Price touch
Tf
-
a -

www.
Calculation
of Enterprise Valley
& in

ADD1N9ITEMS_ SUBTRACTING ITEMS

① Items that require immediate


Repayment An item that will save
you money
cash
-
Debt or
give you some extra .

Preferred stock
either
immediately or in future .

cash
② Items to be repaid in future but money Net
operating Losses
-

↳ will
won't from Normal cash flows : money through
save
come you
tax deductions in
future
-

Unfunded Pension
Obligation
-

Turf
steam
longterm
-

has nowhere
if a co .

enough ↳
if liquid enough
normal cash flows to
pay ,
-

have to Borrow
they'll d. what item do add back
for
1 you
comparability ?
Debt → ADD
Any Aid non -

controlling interest llheiaority


if you 250-1 consolidate
of
-
own .
a co .

Revenues Reflected = loot .

capital teases
-

Equity value Reflected =


% owned

Debt like items I
add interest i. e.
same as above Thus ,
we non -

controlling
the part that we do not own
against
the revenue that is not our own .

Restructuring / Environmental Kab


-

I can have ne
Enterprise value ?
company
a
-

And Yes
,
-

extremely low market cap


-

Extremely high cash Brat .

(companies on the brink


of Banknup g)
Miscellaneous Questions
d- would not exercise in the
option ?
why someone an
money
-

And -

1) Future expectations of price increase

2) Time barred
by company

what is Take rate ?

ARE Rwenue→o
This is a
big deal for payment
4mV processing cos
t
value
Grote
Merchandising
I can the
Equity value be -
we ?
value = firm value Debt
Art Eg
-

market values
① Tf we are
market value
taking than this is not possible because
cannot be
of Eg
.
-
he .

① If you have estimated firm value


using Dcf , & Mug Debt
Equity can be he
-
.

1 estimation ever estimated too low


?#
-

6 Debt is overstated
Mu
\
of
Everything is correct & Eg in
foin is worth
nothing .
Impactof capitalized teases:-

-
Discount case
the commitment PC using COD discountrate.
-

whathappens to lump-sum case


payment end of 45?
↳ Take lease commitment
--
over values
and compare
a see

tempsury commitment end of 75how many years thelumpsup

stands.
↳ teases become debt

↳ Gett he cost
of capital
Debtratio COD
i,
↳ when cap Art, have to
depreciation
you treat charge
leases as
you
Restate
the
of Income -> Add teas exp t depreciation
↳ when
you capitalize leases,
it becomes partof invested capital.

the,-we, neutral
The net based
effectcan be on cost-return
relation
in the
company.
Research and Der Expense -
CAPITALISATION

-
effect
Retrospective
Step 1:
Give ammostisable life for R&D (Take on
average
What back?
Step 2: were R&D exp. each
year going
Step 3:
write-off each
year based on
amortizationlife

-quences:Pop Income DiAdd RaD,1) Repl -> or


op income

② Col doesn't, including unamolized Radexp in cap, As


my
ROC (twel-ne)

Leveraged Buyout
Assets

-
$ 1 million from me
-
$ , o mu -

Acquire a
company using leverage
$9 Loan @ lot futures and it collateral debt
mn use as
for
.

Business ( collateral)
of

¥-
why

targe acquisitions v10
-

commit
1.5m Pretax before
having to a lot
of capital
← ☒ Interest
book Pretax pee
liabilities year
d4s⑦
400k net Tuco me / yeah
Pretty good because I
only paid $11 .

Hot .
returns
Merger Model
-
Miso known as accretion 1 dilution model 1 MAA model
In model , EPs Accretion ( )
a
meager you focus
on
Buyer's EPs
-

goes up
Dilution 's EPs )
Eps
Ctbuyer goes
down

E- why mergers and


acquisitions ?
Ads 1) Financial Reasons : -

CONSOLIDATION -
Market Shale

GEOGRAPHY
-
New Market

2) Other reasons 8

Imp tech, patent, or other intellectual property


-

Threat to business

Employees (tech start-ups

Proust : -

① Determine the Purchase Price → Dcf Public Comps Precedent transactions


, ,

② Determine the Purchase Method → Cash ( Cheapest) Debt stock


to &
t

could have earned interest


Pay interest Reduce EPs
Cmaybe) , depends on PIE
of Fth
Depends on → co's
upcoming plans ( Expanding buying
,
a new
factor, Raising debt )

The premium that the above the seller's shareholder 's called Goodwill
buyer Equity is
#
pays .

calculatuyh-cereli.tn/DihitionandbuateSenntiirtyTables.-
compare -
New combined Bayer
v1, EPs
's old
projected
EPs before acquisition

you
can do
sensitivity tables → various purchase prices transaction
,
structures
,
purchase method
µ

Different Eps
comparingpaymeutmetuodsaudui
a
pads-i.is
analysis
simple cost-Benefit .

The Pre tax income contributed


-

by seller 4s Tut
foregone on cash / cash paid on debt 4
effect of issuing Eg .

d t

If higher → Accretive Pf higher → Dilution

* what does a
buyer want ? →


All cash → Notavailable →
usedebtqcequ.ly - Riskier than cash .

what does a seller want ? I

Buyer should check


if trading at very
buyer is a
① heueuage ratio →
Totalsebt →
to see
if can

high PE ratio cash might EBITDA meet


obligations
\
,

not be the cheapest option .

② %
of
debt used in similar deals .

✗ PE cost stock
=Yoo= H
too →
of '

this is lower than ① How much ownership given


post tax
/
foregone interest
oy cash . Egi④→ ② Dilution to
existing shareholder

③ share price

_RulesofThumb_ %

① If buyer 's PE ratio > seller PE ratio Accretive C


buyer get more earnings per $ paid)
(this approach assumes that the taxrates are same , no
prem .

paid
,
no effects such as depth a Amort .
Asset write-ups

② Compare cost-Benefit

Buyer 's weighted 4s Yield seller


Aug .
cost
of
→ cost
of cash Reciprocal of seller 's PIE
torque int rate on cash ( 1- tattletale)
cost Debt
of
Buyer tax rate
interest rate on debt 4-
cost
of stock

Reciprocal of BFF
's =
NFg.TT?k-
Private company valuation
owned business
A
privately up publicly traded bunion - which
company has higher cot ?
Private will
co have
higher CoE
.
.

A publicly traded, investor has an option to


diversify In public co process of trading takes
.

transaction
care
of illiguiditg
.
its not
easy
to
get out of in private co
, usually liquidity
,

discount is present .

Best Potential buyer for private business ? Public co → The risk them is much
foe more
.

casual because their investors are

diversified .

Process Private Foul Broad Transactions


of valuing company :
-

① value entire business or


just Equity !

There is no marketprice ① Put -
Put

② Put - Public
→ The financial statements might have different Afc policies
③ Put -
Repo
There are no market price inputs ⑨ Pvt -
V C- Public
shorter
history that public co .

Difficult separate salaries dividends


to
from

① Private private Transactions


-

to : -

No diversification on either side


-

Investment is illiquid

value of Person
key
-

GI Revenue $1.2 ñul


Pretax op profit $400K
lease commitment $120,000 pays -

reps

①The absence
of
a
salary is issue .
Bela is used because investors are diversified & they care
only about

the risk that cannot be diversified .

BETI :
Publicly traded restaurants -
unturned - But these are
fast food chains
µ 11 upscale retailers -

uvleueud -
More
closely related
As an audio ersifeid investor ,
you
want more return
for
all the evite
of
business because

there is no risk that could be avoided


by diversification .

Retail co .

what
if you could
find out what proportion of risk restaurant/Tomes market ?
of from
Total untamed Beta =
Market Beta / correlation with market

EstimateDlEuatio&coE_
what is DIE
of typical public co . in the sector .

Ute this
average to calculate levered Beta

Estimate cost
of Debt and Capital
-

Treat Lease as interest expense


-

Interest
coverage ratio
= 400,000 11,20 ,
000 =
3-33 Rating = BB + Default spread = 3.25%

After tax cost


of Debt =

( Rf + spread) ( t - t ) = ( ) (1--40)
4. 2T 1- 3.2T = 4.501 .

Then
,
based on
avg
.

industry Debtfcquatio ,
we calculate cost
of Capitol.

② Clean up the Books

-
Add $150,000 wages to hire a
chef
-
Remove lease
from expense , capitalize as debt ( Pv
of $120 million for 12ps @ → %)

③ Assumes the impact of key Person .

Adjust the
operating income forthe impact .

⑨ Assume expected growth rate

Reinvestment =
81Roc =
2%1201 .
= 101 .

value of Restaurant
⑤ Inputs to valuation = Expected Forfaextyeas / Coc g) -

Adjusted OBIT
→ = $296,000 = Expected OBIT next year C.tt/Cl-R)/Coc -8)
→ Tax rate = 40-1 .
= 296000 ( 1.02) (1- 4) ( t.io) / C. 1325
.

)
02 - •

→ Coc = 13.2 Tt . =
$1.449 m


Expected g = 2T .

lot Value of Eg in rest $1449m $0.928m Cpvq based


=
→ R= .
.
-

=$O•52@
But this renders DIE ratio
qq.gg?-g=
180%

to make valuation consistent ?


How internally
-
checkbox iteration
Use this assessed value DIE
for
-

⑥ Consider the
effect of •
liquidity cos CHIH
/
.

Tlliquidity discount is
usually btw 30% But it should Time Comtois)
vary
so -
.
across -

-
Buyers CLE)
where these discounts come
from ?

① Restricted shares →
compare mkt price
of Restricted its normal 8h .
firm with we
earnings :
-
-

A) Growth estimation is
difficult
① Historical data → calculation difficult /not possible
② estimate Not available not
useful
Analyst → or
'
earning
③ Fundamental If ) of current earwig
we
-

important inputs
-
→ Need 2 useless

B) Tax impact calculation is complicated as losses can be carried forward .

( Terminal value estimation)


c) Going concern
concept
may
not
apply .

start-ups
- young
wineglasses
_qmpaay☐wyfam)uqeqµ]→
new bunion requires
1) firm specific reason
huge infra
,
investments,

2) sector specific will lose


money initially
-

3) cyclical business →
f f \

Research &
Dep costs
small tech firms
of
1)strategic 2) Inefficient 3) Too much

choices operations Debt

Fritze : -

1) Firm specific problems : -

Tf lots attributed to a
specific event → Estimate prior earnings and use
for computing
t fundamentals CROCS .

Remove all aspects of event .

if loss cannot be attributed to


one
expense
.

-
any abnormal changes
compare data with last year and check .

OI i Apply your average operating margin from poor years 4 apply to revenues .

(As a
general rule you ,
have to make adjustments in earnings of firms after
the

year in which
they
have made
major acquisitions)

2) Cyclical Firms : -

There can be →
Based on avant and expected cycle , adjust the growth rate for future
Normalize the earnings over period
two ways
earnings Any of $
-
a
.


Avg . pot or
margins is
Term problems @
Long firm :
-
-

1)strategies :
if the
change is now permanent -

Adjust your expectations


Anume traditional
if
you expect recovery
to normal
geoweua margins
-

variable
Operating Operatingtimemargin
2) is the here
:
key .

Over increase
your margins towards
industry averages
-

3) Fm¥tever# earnings earnings


ne
eg the op
-
- .
.

--
Distressed Distressed +
High
but no

t
threat
of Bankruptcy Probability of Baukaupcy .

Leverage inputs beta & can

r firm 's Coo

--
Estimate Fctc value the
+
fain as
Reduce debt Willenhall
+
ratio overtime
Adjust cost
& Benefits

of Debt
Valuing young firms or start-up firms
3 aspects → Finn's current Past earnings competitors
financial statements and Prices te

d & Better or worse ?


Roe , R
, inputs cyclical ? volatility
, ,
Risk if, growth
estimates
growth

Keydiffereuces
- value profitability proposition
-

defying C- ve earnings)

significant investment in value


land other
No
buildings or other rats Bulk
of from
-

.
,

intangible assets
This is problem of estimation : -

Venture capital Method 6-

① ② ③
forecast
earning of the film Take an
earning multiple estimated
traded
Discount
in a
fatale year when
,
the
by looking at publicly to pv
business
company
can be expected to
go firms in same @ Target rate
.

public of return .


issues today's multiple is used
:

② Freedom in
setting target rate of return
③ forecasting earnings
ÉMaysis : -

1) Assess firm 's current


standing
Use the latest results
,
TTM is a
good period

2) Estimate Revenue growth


→ Past growth rates
of
the
firm C. Adjust as
per trend )

Growth rate
of
market that
firm serves

Barriers to
entry and competitive advantages possessed by the
firm
3) Sustainable
operating margin growth
in stable :

→ took at
firm 's true
competitors
statement to
→ teecluttes the income
get a true measure
of its
operating margin :

4) Estimate reinvestment to
generate growth
:

usually ; g
= Roc ✗ R

used
But when a
firm has
negative earning ,
this
formula cannot be .

we use a sales /cap ratio

expected reinvestment =
Expected A revenue
sales 1 capital ratio

How much sales


of capital generate
each F & how much capital would be needed
to
generate a
target amount of Revenue
.

-
In
steady state ,
we must use the
original formula .

5) Estimate Risk parameters and Discount rates 6-

Beta → Can't
regression
use because
of
Lack
of history
↳ use bottom-up approach .

Comparable firms listed


for
two or more years
,
take average .

Cost
of Debt → since no
rating can't estimate based on
rating
.

↳ interest coverage ratio estimated


Estimate an estimated based on future earning ,

based on that determine a


meeting and calculate cost .

( calculate the value ; Terminal Value is most


impi consider pros .

of not being going concern)


Industry Analysis framework

F-
Porter 's 5 PESTEL SWOT

forces
very simple approach
To what are
analyze an
industry ,
take a on the

constituents
of the industry : -

1) what is the
key product / service is )
of the sector ?

2) who are the customers

3) which companies operate in this sector ?


value chain ?
4) what
industry
is the

5) Are there
any
sub sectors
-

?
6) Evolution the industry & its
of what are
key growth drivers

7) what are the recent trends and developments in the


industry ?
MARKET DYNAMICS
-

Market Overview → value chain


Attractiveness Porter 's
Industry
-

→ 5 forces

Growth Drivers current trends


,

Market challenges

MARKET SEGMENTATION
-

service
Type /Product
-
Market size → Total value and growth
-
and asks / customers
Geographical segmentation
-

-
Sub sectors

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

competitors & their market share


key
-

concentration
TEKNOLOGI CHEDI UM) COMMERCIAL CHCGH)
-

Business focus → Digital I Mextgenlech ? -

similar Assets available for sale ?


?
Service
Technology Partners Business
cyclical or
defensive
-

-
Material specialization ? Horizontal / -
client Base
diversification
vertical / services ? -
stable employee base w/ value added skill set .

r
q

INVESTMENT

FACTORS

>

F1NANC1AL_
<
CTMEDIUM) MANAGEMENT (HIGH)
growth growth / ?
scale
Existing or expected can
manage
- -

Rationale ? Turnaround
Angle ?
History acquiring 1 Integrating Asset ?
-

of
-

Track record value ovation


Revenue &
Margins sustainable ?
of
-
-

Room for expansion ? can


meaningfully deploy capital !
-

Stable / Predictable cash flow ?

COMMERCIAL TEKNOLOGI
-

Target
Market size -

Partnership Ecosystem
-

sustainable competitive Analysis -


IP creches data )
Criticality of services
9
-

concentration
customer
quality a
-

r
VALUATION
FACTORS
£ I
FINANCIAL
Business Mix ( High growth God looting verticals / MANAGEMENT
-

Revenue (sales pipeline repeat purchases ) Experience track record


Recurring
- -

.
,
,

Gross
Margins
-

-
Growth (In volatile as well as stable periods )
contracted
leverage Backlog
-

# Pipeline
Revenue
visibility -
Revenue split
-

sustainable EBITDA Margins


> RenewI based
^

You might also like