Fin Prep
Fin Prep
Fin Prep
VALUATION PROCESS
2) DDM
3) DCF
Rf )
↳ calculate RF
↳ Calculate Beta
↳ calculate market risk Premium
D) calculate terminal value
E) calculate the value cpreseut Value )
Risk free rate of return
valuation -
Nominal terms
Ignore inflation
Real terms -
-
Real discountrate
→ How
risky
is this
company , for the
-f→ Assumed to
a
be dueiified
Hold a lot
of shares
,
can impactpeirce
&
Risk free →
Ef
: A US $ risk
free rate
→ for valuation
,
cash
flows extend forever → use Max period .
If the
government has default risk (not AAA rated ) Reduce the defaultspread
a co -
.
⑨ Brazil $denominated
How to
find default spread Bond mate
-
[¥; , pig
C-) UST Bill -
Bond mate
.
, .
.
=
;)
② CDs market →
directly get default spread
.
Aug spread
for
each
rating
⑨
If¥ I → d-
country risk score
→ Another rated
same score
.
county with
Historical -
Premium
historically earned aboues Rf .
① whenever estimate
from past ,
its statistical and there is
always stet error
.
BONDVAWA.TW#YTM--7PUofct- = Price
of
Bond
S&P 500
@ 2013
M2CT-P②
-
Last
year
's cash
flow
( Expected of ) -
Dividends &
I
Buy Beeks .
start with
default spread
→ Std dev in
.
county 's Eg .
→ Std .
deer in
[email protected]
to mature market premium
BETA
2 Approaches
=
Historical data Type of business Lois octonary 4s necessity
from fundamental
Bete -
market prices
on
characteristics -
operating leverage
of the individual - Financial leverage .
investment
① cyclical firms
-
on investments
against (interest expenses)
② High
returns on market
operating leverage
in
index -
High variance
of Income
Rj = at b Rm ↳
higher Beta
The
t
slope of regression
(good times become great , bad times become terrible )
is the risk of stock BoltomupBdas_
f-
also called Beta 1) what business
you're in
many publicly traded companies
Find as in the sector .
3) How
-
•
much DIE ratio →
return the Beta
-
sector specific
Q bottom Betas 3
why up
And : we replaced the regression beta of
have Ico .
regression
with Beta
of too cos
I mistakes
statistically as the sample size increase Average out
my
.
,
,
rate
of geography
t
majority of tax
•
pays
.
CAPM Beta
error .
BoltomupBdas_
? many publicly traded companies
in the sector
1) what
business
you're in Find as
-
2) what is the revenue mix ? → If multiple businesses → use revenue mix to calculate w -
Aug
.
Betas .
Q bottom Betas 3
why up
And : we have replaced the regression Beta of Ico .
regression
with Beta
of too cos
I mistakes
statistically as the sample size increase Average out
my
.
,
,
rate
of geography
it
pays majorly of tax
.
GROWTH ( Reinvestment or
efficiency
d) Historical (2) Fundamental determinants
Cmost suitable for
of growth
.
stable firms )
Growth in
equity earnings
Hirth matic Aug
=
growth in EPs
iikeometic.my
.
ending
points if we relax this assumption
in Eps
-
it
ignores any gin net income
-4g
recent
changes
reinvests
How much
equity firm
There is a lot noise back into the business
of
-
&
in historical growth
Net Capet + 9 in wc
ROE in broader
rates .
sense
( reinvested)
Equity mean that
-
rates
growth .
ROE Roc
DIE CROC illtt
= + -
3) calculate
neg
.
review
using sales to operate
costofbebl-YAfoyY-IYeasybear.mg
what is debt ? ① contractual commitment
② tax
③ Damage
deductible
on
default -
instrument
&
to ① of
How co :
has credit
rating -
use that to identify
② of co .
has a bond issued -
that
gives me rate
traded ?
what if not
Rating
co . is -
own
get mating
.
-
STABLE GROWTH
can't exceed that
1T€ Do not exceed the
cap →
growth mate
of Economy
↳ use Rfrate- Exp Fugit .
Exp Real g
.
t
for growth
same
rate
Roc will
from competition
downward pressure
come under .
If you
cannot maintain this Roc in steady
Roc should go to Coc doesn't matter Terminal value will
state
g remain same
.
,
.
STEP 1 :
EARNINGS
cap exp
-
Non -
rec .
Exp .
-
Discount the lease commitment @ using
PV cod discount rate .
]
over
fr
i value
any & see
-
compare
bump sum commitment @ end of Jr 5 how many
years thelumpsupm
Hands .
↳ Get
of capital
true cost
The net
effect can be + we
,
-
we
,
neutral based on cost -
return
relation in the
company
.
Net Income -
Net Reinvestment
Research and Dev Expense -
CAPITALISATION + Net Debt Raised
-
step 8 Give ammoslisable life for R&D ( Take average) EDIT 4- tax ) + Deep
1 on rate -
r-cinv-wc.IN
what back ?
step 2 8 were R&D exp each .
step 3 : write
off each
year based on
amortization life met
Borrowing
- .
② Coc doesn't A
including unaonoitized R&D exp in cap, As roc ( thef-he)
,
my
③
THESE :
Always use
marginal tax rate Effective tax rates !
This will lower
your
cash
flow These
defer the taxes which
will be paid
eventually
start effective go marginal ?
,
REINVESTMENT
Net + current Amortization
Adjusted net apex apex year
R&D exp
of
-
=
Research Assets
Acquisition of other
firms should also be
adjusted .
Adjusted net
apex
=
Net capex + Acg of other
.
- Amortization of
firms such
expenses .
Price to Book value
Po DPI
EBP÷q
ROE
=
; if =
gn
r-
BVOXROExpayouetra-lioxcl-gnu-gr.PL
Po =
= PBU = ROE ✗
Payout ratio ✗ Cltgn )
,
rrgn
r -
gn
PBI
- Payoutratio
pB# WE = Roe - I
✗ s
KOE
growth
WE >
WE <
ROE
ROE
-
→
< l
>I
f- High POE -
High PBV
4) EV / EBITDA
EVE
CoC
EV / EBITDA # Expected 8 EU = EBITDA a-E) + Deplt) Cex dwcap -
-
we
lower EBITDA
care about t in PE ?
Ev_
EBITDA
=
WACC
g
- t.DK/EB1tDA--nexafYgB---g&I
WACC
g
- -g
-
① for
any g ,
how much R ?
Very high
R
for long ?
③ Very Risky to -
Multiple- Inverse
Reinvestment Multiple Inverse (as a given growth)
- -
5) EU/sales multiple -
Rainestmentrate
-> COC
south
->
COMPANION UARIABLE
-> rate. (DesicRelation
PIB-ROE
EUIfitcap -
Roc
EU sales of margin
Determinants
i m m e
oftips one
Equity value and EV
Normal
Equity value =
Market cap = sticker Price M Price ✗ shares otsbiluted
of
= . no -
Enterprise value =
Actual cost =
Eg .
+ Debt -
cash
1
Anything that will need us to set
funds aside -
Anything
that will save funds for us)
thus ,
EV =
Equity value + Debt +
Preferred stock -1 Non -
controlling hit -
cash 9 Cash Eg .
-
DILUTED cell Ch .
01s
method for options
-
Use
treasury shock
the
shares
Company buys back some
from money need a remaining
-
forms dilution
::÷÷:* .*÷I!÷
CONVERTIBLE
.
BONDS -
All or
nothing
straight Add
- "
Rsv
www.
Calculation
of Enterprise Valley
& in
Preferred stock
either
immediately or in future .
cash
② Items to be repaid in future but money Net
operating Losses
-
↳ will
won't from Normal cash flows : money through
save
come you
tax deductions in
future
-
Unfunded Pension
Obligation
-
Turf
steam
longterm
-
has nowhere
if a co .
enough ↳
if liquid enough
normal cash flows to
pay ,
-
have to Borrow
they'll d. what item do add back
for
1 you
comparability ?
Debt → ADD
Any Aid non -
capital teases
-
controlling
the part that we do not own
against
the revenue that is not our own .
I can have ne
Enterprise value ?
company
a
-
And Yes
,
-
And -
2) Time barred
by company
ARE Rwenue→o
This is a
big deal for payment
4mV processing cos
t
value
Grote
Merchandising
I can the
Equity value be -
we ?
value = firm value Debt
Art Eg
-
market values
① Tf we are
market value
taking than this is not possible because
cannot be
of Eg
.
-
he .
6 Debt is overstated
Mu
\
of
Everything is correct & Eg in
foin is worth
nothing .
Impactof capitalized teases:-
-
Discount case
the commitment PC using COD discountrate.
-
stands.
↳ teases become debt
↳ Gett he cost
of capital
Debtratio COD
i,
↳ when cap Art, have to
depreciation
you treat charge
leases as
you
Restate
the
of Income -> Add teas exp t depreciation
↳ when
you capitalize leases,
it becomes partof invested capital.
the,-we, neutral
The net based
effectcan be on cost-return
relation
in the
company.
Research and Der Expense -
CAPITALISATION
-
effect
Retrospective
Step 1:
Give ammostisable life for R&D (Take on
average
What back?
Step 2: were R&D exp. each
year going
Step 3:
write-off each
year based on
amortizationlife
-
$ 1 million from me
-
$ , o mu -
Acquire a
company using leverage
$9 Loan @ lot futures and it collateral debt
mn use as
for
.
Business ( collateral)
of
¥-
why
→
targe acquisitions v10
-
commit
1.5m Pretax before
having to a lot
of capital
← ☒ Interest
book Pretax pee
liabilities year
d4s⑦
400k net Tuco me / yeah
Pretty good because I
only paid $11 .
Hot .
returns
Merger Model
-
Miso known as accretion 1 dilution model 1 MAA model
In model , EPs Accretion ( )
a
meager you focus
on
Buyer's EPs
-
goes up
Dilution 's EPs )
Eps
Ctbuyer goes
down
CONSOLIDATION -
Market Shale
GEOGRAPHY
-
New Market
2) Other reasons 8
Threat to business
Proust : -
The premium that the above the seller's shareholder 's called Goodwill
buyer Equity is
#
pays .
calculatuyh-cereli.tn/DihitionandbuateSenntiirtyTables.-
compare -
New combined Bayer
v1, EPs
's old
projected
EPs before acquisition
you
can do
sensitivity tables → various purchase prices transaction
,
structures
,
purchase method
µ
Different Eps
comparingpaymeutmetuodsaudui
a
pads-i.is
analysis
simple cost-Benefit .
by seller 4s Tut
foregone on cash / cash paid on debt 4
effect of issuing Eg .
d t
* what does a
buyer want ? →
→
All cash → Notavailable →
usedebtqcequ.ly - Riskier than cash .
② %
of
debt used in similar deals .
✗ PE cost stock
=Yoo= H
too →
of '
③ share price
_RulesofThumb_ %
paid
,
no effects such as depth a Amort .
Asset write-ups
② Compare cost-Benefit
Reciprocal of BFF
's =
NFg.TT?k-
Private company valuation
owned business
A
privately up publicly traded bunion - which
company has higher cot ?
Private will
co have
higher CoE
.
.
transaction
care
of illiguiditg
.
its not
easy
to
get out of in private co
, usually liquidity
,
discount is present .
Best Potential buyer for private business ? Public co → The risk them is much
foe more
.
diversified .
② Put - Public
→ The financial statements might have different Afc policies
③ Put -
Repo
There are no market price inputs ⑨ Pvt -
V C- Public
shorter
history that public co .
to : -
Investment is illiquid
value of Person
key
-
reps
①The absence
of
a
salary is issue .
Bela is used because investors are diversified & they care
only about
BETI :
Publicly traded restaurants -
unturned - But these are
fast food chains
µ 11 upscale retailers -
uvleueud -
More
closely related
As an audio ersifeid investor ,
you
want more return
for
all the evite
of
business because
Retail co .
what
if you could
find out what proportion of risk restaurant/Tomes market ?
of from
Total untamed Beta =
Market Beta / correlation with market
EstimateDlEuatio&coE_
what is DIE
of typical public co . in the sector .
Ute this
average to calculate levered Beta
Estimate cost
of Debt and Capital
-
Interest
coverage ratio
= 400,000 11,20 ,
000 =
3-33 Rating = BB + Default spread = 3.25%
( Rf + spread) ( t - t ) = ( ) (1--40)
4. 2T 1- 3.2T = 4.501 .
Then
,
based on
avg
.
industry Debtfcquatio ,
we calculate cost
of Capitol.
-
Add $150,000 wages to hire a
chef
-
Remove lease
from expense , capitalize as debt ( Pv
of $120 million for 12ps @ → %)
Adjust the
operating income forthe impact .
Reinvestment =
81Roc =
2%1201 .
= 101 .
value of Restaurant
⑤ Inputs to valuation = Expected Forfaextyeas / Coc g) -
Adjusted OBIT
→ = $296,000 = Expected OBIT next year C.tt/Cl-R)/Coc -8)
→ Tax rate = 40-1 .
= 296000 ( 1.02) (1- 4) ( t.io) / C. 1325
.
)
02 - •
→ Coc = 13.2 Tt . =
$1.449 m
→
Expected g = 2T .
=$O•52@
But this renders DIE ratio
qq.gg?-g=
180%
⑥ Consider the
effect of •
liquidity cos CHIH
/
.
Tlliquidity discount is
usually btw 30% But it should Time Comtois)
vary
so -
.
across -
-
Buyers CLE)
where these discounts come
from ?
① Restricted shares →
compare mkt price
of Restricted its normal 8h .
firm with we
earnings :
-
-
A) Growth estimation is
difficult
① Historical data → calculation difficult /not possible
② estimate Not available not
useful
Analyst → or
'
earning
③ Fundamental If ) of current earwig
we
-
important inputs
-
→ Need 2 useless
start-ups
- young
wineglasses
_qmpaay☐wyfam)uqeqµ]→
new bunion requires
1) firm specific reason
huge infra
,
investments,
3) cyclical business →
f f \
←
Research &
Dep costs
small tech firms
of
1)strategic 2) Inefficient 3) Too much
Fritze : -
Tf lots attributed to a
specific event → Estimate prior earnings and use
for computing
t fundamentals CROCS .
-
any abnormal changes
compare data with last year and check .
OI i Apply your average operating margin from poor years 4 apply to revenues .
(As a
general rule you ,
have to make adjustments in earnings of firms after
the
year in which
they
have made
major acquisitions)
2) Cyclical Firms : -
There can be →
Based on avant and expected cycle , adjust the growth rate for future
Normalize the earnings over period
two ways
earnings Any of $
-
a
.
→
Avg . pot or
margins is
Term problems @
Long firm :
-
-
1)strategies :
if the
change is now permanent -
variable
Operating Operatingtimemargin
2) is the here
:
key .
Over increase
your margins towards
industry averages
-
--
Distressed Distressed +
High
but no
t
threat
of Bankruptcy Probability of Baukaupcy .
--
Estimate Fctc value the
+
fain as
Reduce debt Willenhall
+
ratio overtime
Adjust cost
& Benefits
of Debt
Valuing young firms or start-up firms
3 aspects → Finn's current Past earnings competitors
financial statements and Prices te
Keydiffereuces
- value profitability proposition
-
defying C- ve earnings)
.
,
intangible assets
This is problem of estimation : -
① ② ③
forecast
earning of the film Take an
earning multiple estimated
traded
Discount
in a
fatale year when
,
the
by looking at publicly to pv
business
company
can be expected to
go firms in same @ Target rate
.
public of return .
①
issues today's multiple is used
:
② Freedom in
setting target rate of return
③ forecasting earnings
ÉMaysis : -
→ took at
firm 's true
competitors
statement to
→ teecluttes the income
get a true measure
of its
operating margin :
4) Estimate reinvestment to
generate growth
:
usually ; g
= Roc ✗ R
used
But when a
firm has
negative earning ,
this
formula cannot be .
expected reinvestment =
Expected A revenue
sales 1 capital ratio
-
In
steady state ,
we must use the
original formula .
Beta → Can't
regression
use because
of
Lack
of history
↳ use bottom-up approach .
Cost
of Debt → since no
rating can't estimate based on
rating
.
F-
Porter 's 5 PESTEL SWOT
forces
very simple approach
To what are
analyze an
industry ,
take a on the
constituents
of the industry : -
1) what is the
key product / service is )
of the sector ?
5) Are there
any
sub sectors
-
?
6) Evolution the industry & its
of what are
key growth drivers
→ 5 forces
Market challenges
MARKET SEGMENTATION
-
service
Type /Product
-
Market size → Total value and growth
-
and asks / customers
Geographical segmentation
-
-
Sub sectors
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
concentration
TEKNOLOGI CHEDI UM) COMMERCIAL CHCGH)
-
-
Material specialization ? Horizontal / -
client Base
diversification
vertical / services ? -
stable employee base w/ value added skill set .
r
q
INVESTMENT
FACTORS
>
F1NANC1AL_
<
CTMEDIUM) MANAGEMENT (HIGH)
growth growth / ?
scale
Existing or expected can
manage
- -
Rationale ? Turnaround
Angle ?
History acquiring 1 Integrating Asset ?
-
of
-
COMMERCIAL TEKNOLOGI
-
Target
Market size -
Partnership Ecosystem
-
concentration
customer
quality a
-
r
VALUATION
FACTORS
£ I
FINANCIAL
Business Mix ( High growth God looting verticals / MANAGEMENT
-
.
,
,
Gross
Margins
-
-
Growth (In volatile as well as stable periods )
contracted
leverage Backlog
-
# Pipeline
Revenue
visibility -
Revenue split
-