AICO Africa Limited PDF
AICO Africa Limited PDF
AICO Africa Limited PDF
Incorporated in July 2008, AICO was • In addition to the challenging domestic operating environment,
reverse listed on the Zimbabwe Stock AICO is exposed to international cotton prices, which in turn have
Exchange (“ZSE”) in September 2008 in
the place of Cottco, following a group been impacted by the current global recession. While the economic
restructuring exercise. In addition to environment has evidenced improvement in F09, with some positive
Cottco, Seedco and associated companies, political developments domestically, it is likely that the challenging
AICO has a 49% stake in Olivine operating conditions will persist in the medium term.
Industries and wholly owns Exhort
Enterprises, giving the group market
Funding profile
presence in the fast moving consumer Despite retained earnings of US$15.3m and revaluations of US$8.7m,
goods (“FMCG”) segment. Majority shareholders interest declined by 9% to US$115.3m at FYE09, due to
shareholders include the National Social translation losses of US$37.9m. With interest bearing debt of
Security Authority (“NSSA”), with a
US$40.7m as at FYE09, gross gearing registered at 35%. Adjusted
21.5% stake, Old Mutual Life Assurance
Company (12.1%) and Kensington for cash holdings of US$5.7m, net gearing was 30% at FYE09.
Acquisitions Limited NNR (9.4%). Earnings based gearing metrics presented further insight into the
group’s indebtedness, with net debt to EBITDA registering at 101%
GCR contacts: at FYE09. Short term borrowings accounted for nearly 100% of
Patricia Zvarayi group debt as at FYE09 and largely comprised secured bank loans.
+27 11 784-1771 Coupled with low cash & equivalents, this translated to cash coverage
[email protected] of short term debt of just 0.1x. Gross interest cover registered at 3x in
F09. At 1Q F10, net gearing was at 37%, while net debt to EBITDA
Richard Hoffman
had deteriorated markedly upon a US$ cost base.
+27 11 784-1771
[email protected]
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Operating environment USc/lb Cotton prices ("A" index)
120
AICO’s operations are largely concentrated in
100
Zimbabwe, wherein 87% of group assets are vested.
80
This notwithstanding, over 90% of group turnover was
derived from exports in F09. In this regard, performance 60
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registering a further 13% decline in GDP in 2008 (2007:
6% contraction). Industry capacity utilisation levels are Calendar yr avg. Crop yr avg.
estimated to have declined to below 20%, while the Source: Cotton Outlook.
economy has become largely informalised. Adverse
Global cotton production is expected to ease to 106m
conditions prevailing in the agriculture sector (which
bales in 2009, down from around 110m bales in 2008.
has contracted by over 50% since 2000) have had a
Whilst this is not expected to translate to protracted
contagion effect on all key sectors and particularly
shortages (due to significant stock holdings), the
manufacturing, as it historically relied on relatively
development bodes positively for countries planning to
cheaper domestic inputs. With minimal government
increase capacity (like Zimbabwe).
support and very little FDI, agricultural output remains
constrained. Domestic cotton production
Cotton Statistics 2007 2008 2009*
Chronic foreign currency shortages, exacerbated by Area harvested (ha) 350,000 390,000 370,000
declining exports and spiraling costs of utilities, have Seed cotton prodn. (tonnes) 254,000 224,000 210,000
added to the country’s economic challenges. Despite the Yield (tonnes/ha) 0.73 0.57 0.56
Lint production (tonnes) 104,140 123,000 98,400
formation of the transitional government of national *
Forecast. Source: Cotton Ginners Association.
unity in February 2009, credit lines remain limited.
While transitional support (most notably US$400m in Around 99% of seed cotton is produced by about
special drawing rights from the IMF and an estimated 300,000 small-scale farmers, holding lots averaging 3ha
£60m from the British government) has been in size. In order to sustain the industry, 25 companies
forthcoming, donor funding is still largely suspended are involved in contract growing and processing, with
pending extensive fiscal and economic reform. The three players accounting for nearly 70% of overall
government has estimated that around US$10bn is domestic production. The industry has a ginning
required to resuscitate the economy. capacity of 600,000 tonnes, which is nearly three times
the seed production for 2008 and thus significantly
In February 2009 the country formally adopted a bundle underutilised. Producers plan to increase national seed
of foreign currencies (the US$, Rand, Pula, British cotton production to 1,000,000 tonnes by 2011.
Pound and Euro) as legal tender in conjunction with the However, this hinges on economic growth and
domestic currency. While this bodes positively for the infrastructure development.
economy, challenges persist in the form of liquidity
constraints, low capacity utilisation and acute shortage Government has authorised cotton biotechnology trials
of inputs in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors. in Zimbabwe, slated to begin in 2010. As such, Quton (a
Although AICO’s exports provide some protection member of the AICO group), has entered into an R&D
against the domestic environment, increasing operating agreement with an international genetically modified
costs and waning local demand continues to place organism (“GMO”) technology provider, with a view to
pressure on margins. developing locally adapted varieties of cotton seed to
improve the production and robustness of the country’s
International cotton prices crop. Currently, genetically engineered cotton accounts
Global cotton prices are determined by expected for an estimated 51% of world exports.
demand and supply in relation to the global stock levels.
Major players in the global cotton industry are China, Operations & earnings diversification
Pakistan, India and the USA, with China being both the
largest producer and consumer. Cotton prices have AICO Africa Limited
trended upwards since 2004. However, 2008 evidenced
a sharp decline in the average price due by the Olivine Zambrano Cottco Cottco
Holdings Investments (100%) International
international financial crisis. This saw the crop-year (49%) (100%) (100%)
average price decline to US$0.61/lb in 2008, from
US$0.74/lb in 2007. Prices have since recovered and Seedco Scotto Exhort
peaked at US$0.65/lb in July 2009, a factor attributed to (50.9%) (75%) Enterprises
(100%)
a weaker US$ and declining production.
US$16.8m in F08.
Shareholders interest declined by 9% at FYE09 to
Due to distortions on translation and the effect of the register at US$115.3m. This is attributed to losses on the
hyperinflationary environment on cash flows, group translation of foreign subsidiaries and exchange
financials for F09 do not include a cash flow statement. differences arising from the currency change, which
However, the group reported capex spend of US$5m, offset retained earnings and increases in non-
which was largely dedicated to the maintenance and distributable reserves. As such, around 45% of
upgrading of plant and equipment in the ginning (54%), shareholders equity was non-distributable as at FYE09
seed (41%) and FMCG (4%) segments. The group (largely comprising asset revaluations realised in F08).
further authorised an additional US$15.4m of capex in
F09, which had yet to be undertaken by FYE09. Net gearing registered at 30% at FYE09, with net debt
to EBITDA at 101%. Although no US$ comparatives
Gearing and liquidity profile for F08’s performance were available, the significant
deterioration in sales volumes implies weaker earnings
AICO operations are capital intensive and largely
based gearing metrics as at FYE09. Cash and
comprise plant and equipment. However, the group also
equivalents covered short term debt by just 0.1x at
utilises significant working capital, with receivables and
FYE09, while operating income covered finance charges
inventory accounting for 28% of the asset base
by 3.1x.
(although these levels fluctuate substantially throughout
the year). An ageing analysis of the debtors book at Year-to-date performance
FYE09 showed that 43% was past due, whilst a further
9% was considered irrecoverable (and duly provided Stronger volumes evidenced in the ginning division
for). As at FYE09, 22% of receivables pertained to underpinned higher than forecast revenues in 1Q F10.
exports, while the total foreign exchange exposure on Prior to February 2009, the group had been able to settle
costs of sales and operations in Z$, while receiving
Global Credit Rating Co. – Zimbabwe Corporate Credit Rating Report
predominantly US$ revenues. However, the official Future prospects
transition to US$ accounting has significantly inflated
Carry over stocks are expected to result in a marked
the group’s cost base, whilst meeting day-to-day costs in
increase in ginning sales volumes in F10. In addition,
US$ has proven challenging. This saw the gross profit
management envisages that turnover will be
margin decline to 36% in 1Q F10, from 57% in F09.
significantly boosted by a more stable seed business.
Sales volumes (tonnes) 1Q F09 1Q F10 %∆
% ∆ vs. Consequently, revenue is forecast to increase by 55% to
F09
Ginning 9,794 22,753 132.3 25.6
US$187m in F10. The gross profit margin is projected
Lint 3,961 6,881 73.7 (38.7) to recover to 52% by year end, while the operating
Ginned seed 3,780 15,062 298.5 181.2 margin is anticipated to outstrip the F09 performance
Other 2,053 810 (60.5) (47.1)
Spinning (due to cost rationalisation strategies). Accordingly,
Yarn 683 562 (17.7) 10.6 gearing measures are expected to improve significantly
Weaving - metres ('000s) 1,210 100 (91.7) (75.8)
Seed 9,107 4,480 (50.8) (57.7)
at FYE10, largely due to more robust earnings.
Cotton 773 30 (96.1) (98.8) Actual Budget
Maize 1,170 987 (15.6) (80.7) Operating forecast (US$)
Cotton 6,869 2,838 (58.7) 56.1 F09 F10
Other 295 625 111.9 (46.0) Revenue 120,677 187,192
FCMG 3,269 3,743 14.5 169.4 EBITDA 34,736 54,104
Operating income 26,886 58,286
Forex & fair value gains (losses) (1,350) (231)
Higher than budgeted administrative expenses largely Net finance charges (8,691) (9,332)
drove a negative operating margin in 1Q F10, although NPBT 16,845 48,723
Taxation (1,519) (16,402)
strong fair value and exchange gains supported a NPAT 15,326 32,321
positive NPBT in 1Q F10. However, production Shareholders interest 115,276 151,282
remained subdued, with capacity utilisation falling Debt 40,675 50,904
below sustainable levels in 1Q F10, given the real Cash & equivalents 5,700 4,743
Gross profit margin (%) 57.2 52.2
increases in costs. Op. margin (%) 22.3 31.1
Op. income: net interest (x) 3.1 6.2
Interim operating performance 1Q F10 % ∆ to Net gearing (%) 30.3 30.5
%∆
(US$) Actual Budget F09 Net debt to EBITDA (%) 100.7 85.3
Revenue 21,165 19,757 7.1 (29.8) Cash: short term debt (x) 0.1 0.1
EBITDA 628 (2,198) neg (92.8)
Operating income (606) (3,238) (81.3) n.a
Forex & fair value gains (losses) 4,466 - n.a n.a Growth going forward will hinge upon significant
Net finance charges (1,920) (1,706) 12.5 (11.6) foreign currency inflows into the country. In this regard,
NPBT 1,940 (4,944) neg (53.9)
Taxation (58) 1,092 neg (84.7)
group capex spend is projected to remain subdued, as
NPAT 1,882 (3,852) neg (50.9) capacity utilisation is expected to increase modestly in
Shareholders interest 122,801 123,414 - - the medium term (save for the FMCG business). Full
Debt 60,988 51,320 - -
Cash & equivalents 15,879 6,075 - -
recovery is also premised upon increased agriculture
Op. margin (%) neg neg - -
production, as all of the group’s divisions are highly
Op. income: net interest (x) neg neg - - sensitive to developments in the sector. In this regard,
Gross gearing (%) 49.7 41.6 - -
Net gearing (%) 36.7 36.7 - -
the group remains dedicated to the contract farming
Net debt to EBITDA (%) 1,795.7 neg - - process as a means of sustaining the inflow of affordable
inputs into the ginning and spinning segments. AICO is
Shareholders interest increased moderately at 1Q F10, also forecasting a fivefold increase in FMCG sales
improving by 7%. In keeping with its cyclical volumes for F10, driven by increased productivity under
borrowing pattern, AICO’s debt increased significantly Olivine operations. Going forward, an even distribution
at 1Q F10, registering at a higher US$61m, from of revenue and earnings amongst the three main
US$41m at FYE09. This is attributed to the utilisation divisions is targeted, with around 5% to derive from the
of short term facilities to support working capital spinning segment.
requirements, which typically rise with the onset of the
cotton marketing season in May. Increased borrowings
translated to higher cash holdings at 1Q F10. However,
as these funds are expected to be largely exhausted
during the buying season, liquid funds are projected to
be much lower at FYE10. Gross gearing registered at a
higher 50% at 1Q F10 (F09: 35%), while a stronger cash
position resulted in a less marked deterioration in net
gearing. Earnings based gearing metrics worsened
significantly however, due to the minimal EBITDA
registered in 1Q F10. Debt remained predominantly
short term in nature at 1Q F10, although cash covered
short term borrowings by an improved 0.3x.
Z$'millions* US$'thousands
Income Statement Year end : 31 March 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turnover 1,160 4,835 148,267 803,067,000 120,677
EBITDA 250 1,690 64,562 327,463,892 34,736
Depreciation (9) (81) (3,934) (35,892) (7,850)
Operating income 241 1,609 60,628 327,428,000 26,886
Net finance charges (277) 2,095 20,399 (39,287,000) (8,691)
Foreign exchange gains/(losses)* 71 (431) 4,572 2,402,000 (1,350)
NPBT 35 3,273 85,599 290,543,000 16,845
Taxation charge 2 (699) (23,533) (86,212,000) (1,519)
NPAT 37 2,574 62,067 204,331,000 15,326
Retained earnings 27 2,474 61,989 254,856,000 15,326
#
Cash Flow Statement
Balance Sheet
Ratios
Cash flow:
Operating cash flow : total debt (%) (48.4) 47.8 (71.7) (81.8) n.a
Discretionary cash flow : net debt (%) neg 746.1 neg neg n.a
Profitability:
EBITDA : revenues (%) 21.6 35.0 43.5 40.8 28.8
Operating profit margin (%) 20.8 33.3 40.9 40.8 22.3
EBITDA : average total assets (%) 67.7 53.8 32.2 7.7 16.8
Return on equity (%) neg 166.5 97.1 8.8 17.9
Coverage:
Operating income : gross interest (x) 0.8 5.0 6.7 6.0 3.0
Operating income : net interest (x) 0.9 n.a n.a. 8.3 3.1
Activity and liquidity:
Trading assets turnover (x) 4.3 3.6 1.5 1.3 0.9
Days receivable outstanding (days) 70.5 99.5 145.0 231.9 93.1
Current ratio (:1) 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Capitalisation:
Net debt : equity (%) 164.9 10.1 65.5 13.6 30.3
Total debt : equity (%) 236.0 162.7 81.2 15.3 35.3
Total debt : EBITDA (%) 192.1 309.5 233.9 253.0 117.1
Net debt: EBITDA (%) 134.2 19.2 188.6 225.6 100.7
* All amounts have been "kilotised" and are stated at historical cost.
** Depreciation used as a proxy.