Aarti Industries - Upgrade To Buy - 2QFY20 Result - Edel
Aarti Industries - Upgrade To Buy - 2QFY20 Result - Edel
Aarti Industries - Upgrade To Buy - 2QFY20 Result - Edel
RESULT UPDATE
AARTI INDUSTRIES
Operationally in line; tempting valuation
India Equity Research| Midcap Chemicals
Aarti Industries’ (AIL) flat EBITDA growth in Q2FY20 came in line with our EDELWEISS RATINGS
estimate. Revenue declined 22% YoY led by fall in input prices and lower Absolute Rating BUY
volume owing to raw material unavailability. Given the company’s Investment Characteristics Growth
sustained focus on improving product mix and fall in input prices, EBIT
margin improved in specialty chemicals (up 370bps to 23.9%) as well as
MARKET DATA (R: ARTI.BO, B: ARTO IN)
pharma (up 330bps to 18.5%) segments. Though we revise down FY20
CMP : INR 799
revenue estimate to factor in fall in input prices, we keep PAT estimate
Target Price : INR 992
unchanged, which is in line with management’s guidance of 10-15%
52-week range (INR) : 938 / 642
growth. As we roll forward to December 2020E while maintaining
Share in issue (mn) : 174.2
multiple at 25x, we revise target price to INR992 (earlier INR923). Given
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 139 / 1,934
attractive upside post correction in the stock, we upgrade to ‘BUY’.
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) : 99.7
Furthermore, AIL is planning to spend INR2bn capex in this segment over the next three
years. Bulk of it will be on intermediates as the company is rapidly expanding in this area by
introducing new products and may even bag some long-term contracts.
22.0
14.0
(%)
6.0
(2.0)
(10.0)
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q2FY16
Q1FY17
Q1FY19
Q4FY19
Speciality chemicals Pharma
18,000
(Tonnes per month)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q4FY17
Q1FY19
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q2FY18
Q4FY19
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
As % of net revenues
Direct costs 51.1 61.1 53.6 104.7 57.0 57.0
Employee cost 7.0 4.1 6.2 13.1 7.3 7.1
Other expenses 18.5 16.2 18.5 37.0 12.4 12.4
EBITDA 23.4 18.6 21.8 45.2 23.3 23.5
Reported net profit 13.7 8.0 12.7 26.4 12.1 12.8
Tax rate 16.9 19.2 19.6 36.5 19.0 19.0
Change in Estimates
FY20E FY21E
New Old % change New Old % change Comments
Net Revenue 44,890 53,645 (16.3) 57,705 67,336 (14.3) To factor in falling raw material
prices
EBITDA 10,465 10,693 (2.1) 13,587 13,627 (0.3)
EBITDA Margin 23.3 19.9 23.5 20.2
Adjusted Profit 5,431 5,455 (0.4) 7,361 7,378 (0.2)
After Tax
Net Profit Margin 12.4 10.4 13.0 11.2
Capex 8,054 8,054 0.0 5,000 5,000 0.0
Company Description
AIL incorporated in 1975, is a well-diversified chemicals company headquartered in
Mumbai. It is one of the largest producers of Benzene-based basic and intermediate
chemicals in India and manufactures 125 products with chemistry of benzene, aniline,
sulphuric acid, toluene and methanol. AIL is one of the leading global suppliers of dyes,
pigments, agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and rubber chemicals. Benzene accounts for
~60% of the company’s revenues, while aniline and sulphuric acid compounds contribute
~12% to revenues. With start of the Dahej facility, AIL will also enter toluene chemistry.
AIL’s manufacturing units are located in Gujarat and Maharashtra. It has three different
business segments:
• Specialty chemicals – largest manufacturer of specialized pigment & paint
Intermediates in India and leading player globally. Also, manufactures intermediates for
agrochemicals and produces Single Super Phosphate fertilizer. Earlier part of two
segments
Investment Theme
Integrated, flexible, diversified operations: Superior R&D, process flexibility and integration
operations equips AIL to offer more than 125 products with applications and customer base
across multiple industries.
Cost competitiveness: Backward and forward integration and commercial viability of by-
products enables AIL to enjoy cost competitiveness.
Preferred supplier for global customers, MNCs: AIL is a preferred supplier for global
customers, as exports contribute ~50% to revenue with incremental capex on anvil to
enhance standing in the export market.
Key Risks
Benzene Prices: AIL’s passes on the cost changes with one quarter lag to customers, any
increase in Benzene prices may lead to lower earnings temporarily. We however see lower
risks over a longer period as the same is passed on to customers.
Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Macro Net revenue 38,061 47,055 44,890 57,705
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.8 Cost of mat. Consumed 21,815 26,946 25,587 32,892
Inflation (Avg) 3.6 3.4 3.7 4.0 Employee costs 1,901 2,428 3,278 4,098
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.0 6.3 4.5 4.5 Other Expenses 7,353 8,030 5,560 7,128
USD/INR (Avg) 64.5 70.0 71.0 71.0 Total operating expenses 31,069 37,404 34,425 44,118
Company EBITDA 6,991 9,651 10,465 13,587
Financial assumptions Depreciation 1,462 1,627 2,025 2,429
Spec chem rev gwth(%) 16.2 33.3 (10.0) 10.0 EBIT 5,529 8,024 8,440 11,158
Pharma chem rev gwth(%) 30.5 30.5 25.0 18.0 Less: Interest Expense 1,317 1,825 1,618 1,942
H&P EBIT margin(%) 57.2 - - - Add: Other income 77.7 21.00 60.35 75.00
Spec chem EBIT margin(%) 19.5 20.6 23.0 23.0 Profit Before Tax 4,290 6,220 6,882 9,291
Pharma EBIT margin(%) 14.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 Less: Provision for Tax 829 1,178 1,308 1,765
H&P EBIT margin(%) 1.0 - - - Less: Minority Interest 132 124 143 165
Interest(% of Avg loans) 5.7 7.1 6.5 7.9 Reported Profit 3,330 4,917 5,431 7,361
Tax rate (%) 19.3 18.9 19.0 19.0 Adjusted Profit 3,330 4,917 5,431 7,361
Capex (INR mn) 5,737 6,194 10,000 7,000 Shares o /s (mn) 163 173 173 173
Trade payables days 79.6 74.4 75.0 75.0 Basic EPS (INR) 20.5 28.4 31.3 42.5
Inventory days 125.0 104.5 100.0 100.0 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 163 173 173 173
Receivables days 62.8 60.2 60.0 60.0 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 20.5 28.4 31.3 42.5
Adjusted Cash EPS 30.3 38.5 43.8 57.4
Dividend per share (DPS) 1.0 5.0 8.0 8.0
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 5.9 21.3 30.9 22.8
Additional Data
Directors Data
Chandrakant V. Gogri Chairman Emeritus Rajendra V. Gogri Chairman & Managing Director
Rashesh C. Gogri Vice Chairman & Managing Director Shantilal T. Shah Vice Chairman
Parimal H. Desai Whole Time Director Manoj M. Chheda Whole Time Director
Hetal Gogri Gala Whole Time Director Renil R. Gogri Whole Time Director
Kirit R. Mehta Whole Time Director Ramdas M. Gandhi Independent Director
Laxmichand K. Jain Independent Director Vijay H. Patil Independent Director
K.V.S. Shyam Sunder Independent Director P.A. Sethi Independent Director
Bhavesh R. Vora Independent Director Prof. Ganapati D. Yadav Independent Director
Priti P. Savla Independent Director
Holding – Top10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
HDFC Asset management 8.25 L&T Mutual Fund 1.54
Axis AMC 1.32 DSP Investment Managers 1.23
Sundaram mutual fund 0.94 Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.81
Vanguard Group Inc/The 0.81 Capital group 0.74
Franklin Templeton Asset Management 0.74 Morgan Stanley 0.43
*as per last available data
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
No Data Available
*as per last available data
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
03 Jul 2019 Chandrakant Vallabhaji Gogri Sell 121000.00
25 Jun 2019 Chandrakant Vallabhaji Gogri Sell 16500.00
18 Jun 2019 Nikhil Holdings Private Limited Sell 40000.00
13 Jun 2019 Nikhil Holdings Private Limited Sell 31321.00
09 Jan 2019 Chandrakant Vallabhaji Gogri Sell 20000.00
*as per last available data
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
ADITYA
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES
Aditya Narain LIMITED, ou=SERVICE,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c4
8a8e0c89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c
Head of Research 07b02, postalCode=400011,
NARAIN
st=MAHARASHTRA,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c
27990f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30
[email protected] 092792c20, cn=ADITYA NARAIN
Date: 2019.11.14 22:17:08 +05'30'
`
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Aarti Industries
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