Barrons 20230220 Barrons
Barrons 20230220 Barrons
Barrons 20230220 Barrons
RETHINKING
PLASTIC
Upside-down pricing
of new and recycled
plastics is hampering
global efforts to curb
waste. How to fix it.
Plus, six stocks to buy.
PAGES 14, 17
>
63142
C O NT EN TS 02.20.23 VOL.CIII NO.8
P. 14 P. 10 P. 28
P. 17
European Trader:
Porsche Stands Apart
Six Stock Plays on By BRIAN SWINT
Plastic’s Future
These chemical and plastic P. 31
companies have long-term appeal.
By AL ROOT
Emerging Markets:
Erdogan’s Challenge
P. 5 By CRAIG MELLOW
P. 7 P. 33
P. 13
RETHINKING
PLASTIC
Best Fund Families: Economy: The Long
Our Annual Ranking Way to a Hard Landing Barron’s Roundtable
Finding Treasure in A tough 2022 gave active fund A robust economy and stubborn
on Fox Business
Upside-down pricing
Trash-Hauling Stocks
of new and recycled
plastics is hampering
global efforts to curb
>
Waste Management, Republic risk-management skills. Oil stocks By TERESA RIVAS Watch our weekly TV show
Services, and Waste Connections Illustration by Javier Jaén and a tilt toward value helped. Saturday or Sunday at 10 a.m. or
have steady, growing businesses— By DEBBIE CARLSON P. 24 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, a look
and a buffer against inflation. inside Warren Buffett’s investment
By NICHOLAS JASINSKI © 2023 Dow Jones & Company,
P. 26
Income: Emerging portfolio. Plus, analyst Ray Wang
Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Market Bonds Beckon on tech-company risks stemming
P. 22
Our newspapers are 100% sourced
from sustainable certified mills.
Where to Hunt for By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS from tensions with China.
Bond Market Bargains
Act Now to Trim BARRON’S (USPS 044-700) (ISSN
1077-8039) Published every
Monday. Editorial and Publication Q&A: Bond maven Gibson Smith P. 25
Your 2023 Tax Bill Headquarters: 1211 Avenue of
the Americas, New York, N.Y. offers perspective on a market in Tech Trader: Bing Index P. 4 Charting the Market P. 35
10036. Periodicals postage paid at
Seven early-bird strategies that can Chicopee, MA and other mailing flux—and explains why he likes Review & Preview P. 8 Winners and Losers P. 36
Alamy
address changes to Barron’s, 200
Burnett Rd., Chicopee, MA 01020 Inside Scoop P. 34 Statistics P. 38
By KAREN HUBE By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS By ERIC J. SAVITZ
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 3
Finding
Cyclical
Value and
Income
A Simple Strategy for
a Complex Market
Equal Weight exposure to the 5
highest-yielding S&P 500 stocks
in 10 sectors
Cyclical Value exposure with a
dividend focus
An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other infor-
mation, call 1-866-759-5679 or visit www.alpsfunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Shares are not individually redeemable. Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market. Only market makers or “authorized participants” may trade directly
with the Fund, typically in blocks of 5,000, 25,000 or 50,000 shares.
All investments are subject to risks, including the loss of money and the possible loss of the entire principal amount invested. Additional information regarding the risks of this
investment is available in the prospectus.
The Fund is subject to the additional risks associated with concentrating its investments in companies in the market sector.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
Dogs of the Dow Theory: an investment strategy which proposes that an investor annually select for investment the ten Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks whose dividend is the
highest fraction of their price.
S&P 500 Index: widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market
capitalization. One may not invest directly in an index.
ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. is the distributor for the Fund.
4 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
I N D EX
Our index lists significant companies mentioned in stories and columns, For Customer Service, call 1 (800) 544-0422, or go to
plus Research Reports, and Corrections & Amplifications. The references customercenter.barrons.com. For reprints of articles,
are to the first page of the item in which the company is mentioned. call 1 (800) 843-0008, or go to djreprints.com.
Strong Economic
Prominent among the data was changes in the Treasury account at the
January’s consumer price index, Fed and so-called reverse repurchase
which was up by a greater-than- agreements (which were discussed at
expected 0.5%, bringing the year- length here several weeks ago).
T
course. As Dallas Fed President Lorie was the day before the news of the
he dash for trash along with less easing in inflation at Logan pithily observed in a speech blowout 517,000 surge in January’s
has hit a speed the consumer and producer levels. this past week, “Supply chains can’t payrolls suggested otherwise.
bump. Stocks fal- Two Fed district presidents, Loretta recover twice.” On the week, the S&P 500 slipped
tered again this Mester of Cleveland and James Bullard Much of the early-year rally also 0.28%, its second straight weekly de-
past week as the of St. Louis, also opined this past week had been driven by a largely unrecog- cline. The big-cap benchmark closed
early-year rally, led that here had been a good case for a nized global liquidity surge noted by on Friday up 6.24% since the turn of
by rebounds in half-point rate hike at the last FOMC Citi global markets strategist Matt the year, but off 2.41% from its peak at
2022’s speculative-grade losers, ran meeting, instead of the quarter-point King. Even as the Fed was reducing its the beginning of the month.
into resistance from higher expected move. That confab concluded on Feb. balance sheet (aka quantitative tight- Further rises in short-term interest
interest rates from the Federal Re- BY RANDALL 1, before those hotter-than-expected ening), actions by the European Cen- rates are likely to be a hurdle for
serve in the wake of persistent infla- W. FORSYTH economic releases arrived. Neither of tral Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the stocks and other risky assets, as long
tion readings and few signs that these policy hawks are voters in this People’s Bank of China were adding as inflation remains stubborn.
growth is faltering. year’s rotation, however. But the panel $1 trillion to global liquidity, he writes
R
Economists at an array of major will lose a prominent dove with the in a provocative research note. At the eturn with us to ancient
Wall Street banks, including Goldman departure of Lael Brainard, the Fed same time, the impact on bank re- times, when dinosaurs ruled,
Sachs, Bank of America, and Citi- Board’s vice chair, to head the White serves of the Fed’s cut in its securities at least in technology terms.
group, lifted their forecasts of the House’s National Economic Council. portfolio largely has been offset by It was early 2007, when
eventual peak in the central bank’s Blackberries were in everybody’s mitts
target range for the overnight federal- and the first iPhone hadn’t yet gone on
funds rate, to 5.25% to 5.50%, effec- sale, let alone changed the tech world.
tively bringing them in line with the This distant era was the last in which
fed-funds futures market. Deutsche you could earn 5% on a U.S. Treasury
Bank now is expecting a 5.6% single- bill. Until now.
point peak, up a half-percentage-point Five percent is a risk-free rate far
from its previous estimate, and among above what anyone under the age
the highest forecasts. of 40 probably is accustomed to. Fol-
According the CME Group’s Fed- lowing the 2008-09 financial crisis,
Watch site, the futures market is pric- T-bill yields hugged zero percent most
ing in three more quarter-point hikes, of the time, except for a move into
from the current 4.50% to 4.75%, at the 2% range by 2018. They plunged
the Federal Open Market Committee’s anew when the Covid-19 pandemic
March, May, and June meetings. The erupted in 2020. Starting last year,
change in outlook was the addition however, they began to climb, as the
of the last quarter-point move, with a Fed sharply raised its short-term
57.5% probability of a peak of at least interest-rate target by 4.25 percentage
5.25% to 5.50% in June, as of Friday’s points, to 4.50% to 4.75%. And with
Jim Vondruska/Bloomberg
Up & Down Wall Street (continued) funds in the sector. CEO of Cumberland Advisors. That would
Further out on the risk scale, Kochan be equivalent to approximately a 7% tax-
likes shorter-term high-yield funds, given able yield for an investor in the 35%
market yields has significant implications rate bonds now offer the smallest extra that any defaults in this group should bracket, far above the federally taxable
beyond letting savers earn a decent return yield margin ever, compared with three- be limited by the economy “doing well 3.90% yield on a 30-year Treasury. And he
again. month T-bills, which were offering 4.80% enough.” Two other ETFs—the iShares sees further Fed rate hikes resulting in a
A 5% yield with zero volatility risk sets on Thursday, said Lotfi Karoui, Goldman 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond negatively sloped yield curve (with short
a very high bar for the stock market, ob- Sachs Asset Management’s chief credit (SHYG) and the SPDR Bloomberg Short maturities above longer ones), ultimately
served Peter Oppenheimer, chief global strategist, on the webinar. Term High Yield Bond (SJNK)—are hitting stocks and sparking a large rally in
equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset In comparison, the iShares iBoxx $ shorter versions of the major high-yield bonds.
Management, in a webinar this past week. Investment Grade Corporate Bond bond ETFs. But in this sector, GSAM’s In contrast, Charles Lieberman, chief
That’s especially true with the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ticker: LQD) had Karoui would avoid leveraged loans. While investment officer at Advisors Capital
trading at a price/earnings multiple of 18.5 a 30-day SEC yield of 5.02%, according their floating rates might boost returns, Management, thinks that rates will head
times—well above its 20-year average of 15. to sponsor BlackRock, with greater credit they pose an increasing burden on borrow- higher. He prefers maintaining shorter
So, Douglas Kass, head of Seabreeze Part- and interest-rate risk. ers at a time when their revenue could be durations for clients and favors real estate
ners Management, has bidden goodbye to Given these developments, James squeezed—a recipe for disaster. investment trusts with exposure to health-
TINA (there is no alternative to equities) Kochan, a former fixed-income strategist As for municipal bonds, one of Barron’s care. Lieberman’s picks include Medical
and said hello to TATA (Treasuries are the at Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo and income picks for 2023, they have rallied Properties Trust (MPW), Omega
alternative). In fact, T-bills are providing adjunct faculty member at the University strongly since the turn of the year. That’s Healthcare Investors (OHI), Sabra
roughly three times the S&P 500 dividend of Wisconsin-Milwaukee business school, the good news. The bad news is that their Healthcare (SBRA), and LTC Properties
yield of 1.65%, according to Peter Boock- recommends that investors stick to one- to prices have climbed, lowering yields for (LTC). Their yields range from about 6%
var, chief investment officer at Bleakley two-year Treasuries and one- to five-year anyone buying now. With 10-year AAA- to more than 9%.
Advisory Group. Treasury inflation-protected securities. rated tax-free bonds’ yields equaling only For the near term, Treasury bills yield-
Given the yield gap, David Kotok, Cum- The latter should continue to benefit from 65% of comparable Treasuries, Kochan ing upward of 5%, with no risk and exempt
berland Advisors’ chairman and chief in- sizable increases in the CPI, he writes in would avoid munis. A 75% ratio would from state and local income taxes, still are
vestment officer, says he has a very high, an email. The Vanguard Short-Term represent fair value, he says. tough to beat. Even if they offer all the
25% cash position in his clients’ portfolios Inflation-Protected Securities ETF But longer-term munis, with yields of excitement of a flip phone. B
of exchange-traded equity funds. (VTIP) and the iShares 0-5 Year TIPS 4.50% for mid-investment-grade credits,
What’s more, investment-grade corpo- Bond ETF (STIP) are large, low-cost are still attractive, says John Mousseau, email: [email protected]
POCKET MONEY
GE T THE TOOL S , INSIGHTS
AND EXCLUSIVE CONTENT N
WITH THE MARKETWATCH APP.
SCE A
CO D
E
TH
GHEEATPP
T
ST R E E T W I S E
What is slowing is anything that requires financ-
ing. But that’s only 20% of GDP. Services make up
the bulk of GDP, and they’re strong.
G
last year,” notes Northern Trust, with Cash Cows 100 (COWZ), and Van-
lobal air traffic better diversification. low-quality stocks in particular out- guard Small-Cap Value (VBR) can
just hit the high- Financially speaking, I’m keeping performing. But that doesn’t appear help offset crowding in big-company
est level in five my flaps down and tray table up, and sustainable, making it likely that stocks. For overseas, there’s Pacer
years. And Top while I’m not sure about the landing, “we will experience some reversals.” Global Cash Cows Dividend
Gun: Maverick it’s safe to assume that we’re all That’s technically a double-reverse, (GCOW). Note that the two cow
was last year’s spending the night together at O’Hare. which is football or figure skating, and funds milk shareholders for a full-fat
runaway box- Dibs on a lounge chair in Terminal 3. outside the scope of this aeronautical 0.49% and 0.60%, respectively.
office leader. One or both of these I spoke recently with Slok at discussion.
U
factors surely explains Wall Street’s Apollo Global about his inflation LPL says that with the S&P 500 BS says it isn’t too late for
soaring use of pilot lingo to describe BY JACK concerns. Unemployment is the low- up some 14% from its October low, bonds; the 10-year Treasury
the economy and stock market. I need HOUGH est since the 1960s, which doesn’t a soft landing for the economy is yield, recently 3.86%, is
aviator glasses just to get through my evoke a slowing economy, he says. already priced into the stock market. down from its October peak
email. What is slowing are the parts that But it calls earnings depressed, and of 4.23%, but it has remained high rela-
A “soft landing for the U.S. econ- are tied to interest rates, like housing, predicts peppy earnings gains tive to yields since 2010. The house
omy is still very much on the table,” washing machines, and pretty much ahead—and some 10% more upside view is that moderating inflation is
writes the financial flight crew at anything that needs financing. But for stocks this year. delayed but not derailed, setting up a
UBS. But we can’t rule out a “hard- those things are only about 20% BofA’s “crosscurrents” include, favorable year for fixed income.
landing recession, induced by more of gross domestic product. Services on the inflationary side, the fact that UBS’ stock strategists caution that,
than two additional Federal Reserve make up the bulk of GDP, and those wages are growing at 4.4%, and con- outside of energy and financial com-
rate hikes.” That part makes my remain strong. sumer spending at 5.1%, and that panies, paper profits have risen much
jumpsuit ride up. If inflation, recently over 6%, gets 95% of mortgages now have fixed faster than operating cash flow over
See, the Fed just raised interest stuck at, say, 4%, instead of falling to rates, which means that it could take the past year, which increases the risk
rates at the fastest pace since it 2% as the Fed would like, the central longer for rate increases to properly of a profit downturn.
started its current targeting approach bank will keep raising rates, says Slok. cool the economy. A stock screen comparing company
40 years ago. But some economic “The stock market, and in particular BofA recommends diversification, profits and operating cash flow, along
measures remain stubbornly upbeat, the Nasdaq, is going to remain quite which it says has become more diffi- with UBS Buy and Sell recommenda-
like job gains. Strategists at LPL vulnerable over the coming quarters.” cult to find. Average correlations tions, suggest favoring Alphabet
Financial recommend using a six- Northern Trust predicts that U.S. among S&P 500 members that were (GOOGL), T-Mobile US (TMUS),
month average there: “Minimal stocks will return just under 3% this 10% to 20% through much of the Hershey (HSY), and Lockheed Mar-
turbulence in the trend line is tin (LMT), while avoiding Victoria’s
consistent with a pathway to a Secret (VSCO), C.H. Robinson
smooth landing.” Worldwide (CHRW), and Para-
Torsten Slok, chief economist at BARRONS.COM/PODCASTS mount Global (PARA).
Apollo Global Management, sees a Note that while UBS is bearish on
“no-landing scenario” marked by
sticky inflation, more tough action
from the Fed, and poor performance
Barron’s Streetwise Paramount Global, Warren Buffett’s
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has
been adding shares of the media
for traditional 60/40 stock and bond In a weekly podcast by Barron’s, columnist Jack Hough looks company. I’d call that a valuation
portfolios. Northern Trust is a bit at the companies, people, and trends you should be watching. dogfight, but I don’t want to be
more optimistic, but views stock valu- This is Wall Street like you’ve never heard before. Subscribe accused of turning a wing dip into
ations as a “headwind,” whereas BofA to Barron’s Streetwise on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, a barrel roll. B
Securities says that inflationary and or your favorite listening app.
deflationary “crosscurrents” call for email: [email protected]
8 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
R E VIEW 33,826.69
Dow Industrials: - 42.58
491.41
Dow Global Index: - 0.71
3.83%
10-Year Treasury Note: + 0.09
Pass,ThenFail 147.8%
unidentified objects—a case apparently
of finding what you’re looking for. The
objects appear to be of private, non-
Increase in Russian exports of alien, origin. For its part, China ac-
coal to India in 2022. cused the U.S. of sending spy balloons
Boom turned to bust. University endowments lost 8%, on through its airspace and sanctioned
average, for the 12 months through June 30, after posting
30.6% gains the prior year. It was their worst showing
since the financial crisis, when they slumped 18.7% in
2009, according to TIAA and the National Association
57%
Candy was tops as a Valentine’s
Lockheed Martin and Raytheon
Technologies. U.S. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken and China Foreign
Minister Wang Yi may talk at the Mu-
Going on Offense
Western intelligence reported that Rus-
sia was massing air power along the
border with Ukraine. Russia’s air force
of College and University Business Officers, or Nacubo. Day gift this year, beating cards nich Security Conference this weekend. has so far played a relatively small role
The study, released on Friday, included 678 institutions and flowers. The estimated total in the nearly year-old war. Ukraine
with total assets of $807 billion. Allocations to private outlay: $25.9 billion, up 8.4%. The Debt Impasse urged the West to send more ammuni-
equity and venture capital, at 30%, exceeded those to U.S. The Congressional Budget Office said tion. The Washington Post reported that
and global equities, at 28%, and boosted performance.
Harvard University endowment chief N.P. “Narv”
$1,444 that the Treasury wouldn’t be able to
pay its bills as early as July, if the debt
U.S. policy makers warned Ukraine it is
wasting resources needed for a spring
P R EV IEW Wednesday Nvidia reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2023 Sign up for the Review &
results. Shares of the largest semiconductor
company by market value have rocketed 46% Preview daily newsletter at
higher this year, in part due to the frenzy over artificial-intelligence stocks Barrons.com/reviewpreview
unleashed by the release of AI-powered chatbot ChatGPT late last year.
A Markdown,
A Red Flag? sensus estimates are for a 47.2 reading
Since 1998, 19 quarters have seen for the Manufacturing PMI and 46.7 Friday 2/24
negative S&P 500 earnings revisions. for the Services, each roughly in line
Quarters larger than Q4 2022's 1.7% with the January data. Both indexes The BEA reports personal income
4Q 2000
2Q 2001
have been below 50, indicating con-
traction in their respective sectors,
since November.
and expenditures for January. The
consensus call is that both income
and spending rose 1%, month over
month. This compares with a gain
4Q 2001
With only a few big names left to report, 80% of S&P 500 2Q 2002 The National Association of Real- of 0.2% and decrease of 0.2%,
companies have now delivered results, putting the index’s 2Q 2011 tors reports existing-home sales for respectively, in December. The Fed-
earnings per share on track to contract 2.2% for the fourth 3Q 2005 January. Expectations are for a season- eral Reserve’s favored inflation gauge,
4Q 2022 -1.7%
quarter—the first quarterly drop since 2020’s third quarter. 4Q 2002
ally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million the core personal-consumption ex-
This isn’t a surprise: Weakening profit margins have been 3Q 2001 homes sold, 80,000 more than in De- penditures price index, is expected
evident in recent quarters, and many companies have 3Q 2007 cember. Existing-home sales have de- to show an increase of 4.3%, year
warned on profits. 1Q 2008 clined for 11 consecutive months, over year, one-tenth of a percentage
1Q 2020
What is unusual is how swiftly earnings estimates con- 2Q 2008 as the housing market is among the point less than previously.
tracted. Since the fourth quarter ended on Dec. 31, consen- 3Q 2008 sectors most sensitive to the Federal
sus EPS estimates have come down 1.7%, writes Credit 4Q 2007 Reserve’s interest-rate hikes.
4Q 2008
Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub. Since
1998, analysts’ average estimates have tended to rise 2.8%
-40% -20 0 Coming Earnings
after the ends of quarters, with estimates cut in only 16 of
Source: Credit Suisse
Wednesday 2/22 M
Consensus Estimate Year ago
98 quarters, and with nine reductions steeper than 1.7%. Consensus Busters Williams (Q4) $0.50 $0.39
Except for 2020’s first quarter, when Covid-19 threw the Earnings surprises, positive or Coterra Energy, DaVita, eBay,
T
world into turmoil, those came during the 2001 recession negative, vary by sectors. Here's the Lucid Group, Pioneer Natural Chesapeake Energy (Q4) 2.93 2.39
and the 2008-09 financial crisis. fourth quarter's breakdown. Resources, and TJX Cos. release Coinbase Global (Q4) -2.51 3.32
EXACT Sciences (Q4) -0.79 -1.28
As a result, Golub writes, excluding recessions, this has quarterly results. Expeditors Int’l of Wash (Q4) 1.98 2.66
been the “worst earnings season” in 24 years. This is no blip. Materials Home Depot (Q4) 3.28 3.21
Consensus EPS estimates are already factoring in a 4.8% Healthcare The Federal Open Market Commit- More Earnings on Page 51.
Utilities
decline for 2023’s first quarter and 2.9% for the year. “Unfor- tee releases minutes from its early-
tunately, these estimates continue to come down,” he says.
Consumer Staples
February monetary-policy meeting. Consensus Estimate
Real Estate
Day Consensus Est Last Period
True, the U.S. grew in the fourth quarter, earnings don’t Energy Economic data released since the
T January Existing Home Sales 4,088,000 4,020,000
march higher forever, and many investors are optimistic that S&P 500 meeting, including a blowout jobs re- TH Q4 GDP - (Second Preliminary) 2.5% 2.9%
the U.S. can execute a soft landing. The fourth quarter’s 1.7% Financials port and hotter-than-expected con- F January New Home Sales 622,500 616,000
decline also looks benign compared with the 34% drop that Information Tech sumer price index and producer price January Personal Income 0.75% 0.20%
followed 2008’s fourth quarter, or even 2001’s 2.9% fall. But Consumer Discretionary index, have challenged the disinflation February Michigan Sentiment - f 66.4 66.4
Russia’s War
would cut oil production by 500,000
barrels a day, potentially tilting the
scales toward higher oil prices. Brent
crude, the international benchmark,
Economy
Russian oil and gas revenue fell by
46% in January, compared with the
level a year earlier, the Russian Fi-
nance Ministry said in early Febru-
ary, hinting at the economic toll.
Nor does the energy war seem to
The invasion of Ukraine has cost be ending. A part of the cap that tar-
the world about 1% of global gross gets Russia’s diesel exports went into
domestic product and upended effect at the beginning of this month.
It is too soon to tell how the restric-
geopolitics. The risks aren’t over. tions will affect Europe’s diesel-reli-
ant heavy industries.
The G-7 will decide in March
whether to lower the crude-oil cap.
BY MATT PETERSON Doing so would raise the prospect of
L
more enforcement and put further
iving near a rocket-manu- pressure on prices. “If we looked
facturing plant in Dnipro, back and found that it was having no
in eastern Ukraine, holds impact on the Russian economy, then
certain advantages for An- we would certainly revisit the level,”
astasia Kvitka, 33. There are says a senior Biden administration
none of the planned elec- official who requested anonymity.
tricity outages that have “You probably will see frictions and
plagued much of Ukraine since Russia hiccups along the way, as you see
began lobbing missiles and drones at global trade paths emerge.”
the country’s power grid. That makes Those hiccups challenge even the
it easier for her to write marketing most seasoned forecasters. “I’ve been
copy for Bordio, a Latvian software counting barrels for 32 years, and
company that has several employees conflict already has knocked about a will be able to gain a decisive military predicting the next few months in oil
in Ukraine. percentage point off global gross do- advantage and the fighting will persist prices is as hard as it has ever been,”
But when an explosion rocked mestic product, estimates Dana Peter- indefinitely, with no significant change says Bob McNally, president of en-
Kvitka’s home recently, she assumed it son, chief economist at the Conference in territorial control. ergy consulting firm Rapidan. A case
was a Russian attempt to target the Board. The U.S. Federal Reserve has Daleep Singh, President Joe Bi- could be made for $50—or $150—oil
factory. “The house trembled. I repeatedly warned that the war’s un- den’s top international economics later this year, “and neither one of
thought that the windows would fly certainty is complicating its economic adviser through mid-2022 and now them will be crazy,” McNally says.
out,” she says. outlook. And supply-chain disrup- chief economist at PGIM Fixed In- Much of the war’s potential eco-
Feb. 24 will mark one year since tions, especially in the energy market, come, sees two other alternatives: nomic impact lies in second-order
Russian President Vladimir Putin have encouraged a broader move in The war might escalate beyond recog- geopolitical shifts that are much
ordered a full-scale invasion of the U.S. and Europe toward political nition—or Putin’s regime in Russia harder to gauge than the price of a
Ukraine, unleashing a military cam- management of the economy. might collapse. barrel of oil. In January, the Bulletin
paign of stunning brutality that has It might be tempting for investors Singh considers scenario No. 1— of the Atomic Scientists moved its
weapons that could strike inside Rus- ness about deterrence in the Indo-Pa-
sian territory. Would Putin press the cific and the balance of power, it
button? Nothing is stopping him, but might lower the risk of conflict
“the more time is passing by, the less there,” says Vance Serchuk, executive “History shows that it doesn’t pay to try
is the risk,” says Polina Sinovets, di- director of the KKR Global Institute,
rector of the Odessa Center for Non- the geopolitical advisory arm of the to time the stock market, but there are
proliferation. investment firm.
The risks might change if Putin
somehow were to exit the scene.
A war involving China probably
would be far more damaging to the
times when risk levels have increased
When the Russian military faltered global economy than the Ukraine
last year, Putin began to rely heavily conflict. to a point where it is wise to have a
on the Wagner Group, a private mili- Meanwhile, in rethinking their
tary company, which raised questions energy supplies, the U.S. and Europe safety net – like dividends.”
about his control of the state. Wagner are moving toward greater industrial
leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is thought to management of their economies—a
harbor political ambitions, although strategy that could yield mixed re- - Jim Cullen, Chairman & CEO
he has denied this. sults. After several decades of globali-
The potential collapse of Putin’s zation and freewheeling economic
leadership is just one of many impon- growth, governments are reconsider-
derables that could reshape the war
and upend the global world order.
ing, for example, whether the absolute
lowest gas price is worth a national-
High Dividend Equity
Singh, the former Biden adviser, de- security risk.
scribed a taxonomy of risk. “The “Is industrial policy going to be
worst kinds of scenarios are those that able to make us safe and solve some Enhanced Equity Income
have little or no historical precedent, of these geopolitical vulnerabilities?”
that involve nuclear powers, that trig- asks Serchuk. “The track record is
ger the use of the most potent forms of pretty mixed. Is it capable of produc- Value Equity
economic statecraft that aren’t easily ing good results? Absolutely. Is it
counteracted with fiscal or monetary also capable of producing inefficien-
policy, and that occur with little or no cies? Yes.” Small Cap Value
warning,” he says. As politicians, soldiers, and citi-
Iran’s active support of Russia, and zens gird for the battles ahead,
China’s passive support, could also
amplify geopolitical risks, although
Kvitka, the Ukrainian who works
remotely for an EU company, plugs
International High Dividend
the war in Ukraine and the Covid on. She spoke with Barron’s via Zoom
pandemic have prompted many
Western governments to step up their
from a darkened home. The power
was out, which meant the water was
Emerging Markets High Dividend
risk management. Japan, for example, off, too. She manages her tasks so
has been watching events closely, and that she always has something to do
has gradually been abandoning its when the internet goes down. Water Impact
post–World War II pacifism. “If one “No one in Ukraine can feel safe
of the consequences of the Ukraine right now,” she says.
tragedy is that there is a new serious- That is true for the rest of us, too. B
Tankers are parked at a Moscow refinery. Russia has said its energy revenue is down 46%.
registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This information should
not be used as the primary basis for any investment decision nor, should it be
construed as advice to meet a particular investment need. It should not be
assumed that any security transaction, holding or sector discussed has been
or will be profitable, or that future recommendations or decisions we make will
be profitable or equal the investment performance discussed herein. A list of all
recommendations made by the Adviser in this strategy is available upon request
for the 12 months prior to the date of this report.
12 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
C
regulator acting to discourage banks which offered a “staking” service that eral areas, including its process for
rypto almost killed itself from touching crypto,” he says. the SEC said amounted to an unregis- listing assets and its yield-generating
last year. Now the govern- The initiatives come after crypto tered security. Kraken agreed to stop products. Stablecoins bring in money
ment wants to make its life fell apart last year in bankruptcies, offering the product in the U.S., with- through a deal with Circle. Coinbase is
harder, if not choke it off. frauds, and $2 trillion in token losses, out admitting or denying wrongdoing. also building a staking business
Regulators have issued punctuated by the $32 billion col- The SEC also wants to make it through the Ethereum blockchain,
a flurry of directives, en- lapse of FTX. While the market has harder for companies to serve as a acting as a middleman for investors to
forcement actions, and rebounded—with Bitcoin up 50% year “qualified custodian” under new stake tokens to the network in ex-
other measures to rein in what they to date—regulators are under pressure guidelines. Companies would have change for a yield. That business may
see as a rogue industry. The initiatives to prevent more damage to investors, to segregate crypto assets, and they also face legal challenges.
include warnings to banks, fines over including millions of Americans who would have to be bankruptcy remote, “Coinbase embraces regulation and
a practice called “staking,” guidelines lost money in the collapse. so investors wouldn’t need to fight has since day one,” a spokesperson
for companies taking custody of One way to do that, it seems, is to for their assets in a bankruptcy pro- said in a statement. “But a lot of what
crypto, and a legal challenge to stable- keep crypto out of the banking sys- ceeding. “Based upon how crypto we’re seeing right now is regulation by
coins—a critical part of crypto mar- tem. Top federal regulators issued a platforms generally operate, invest- enforcement.” Clear rules are needed,
Garbage
at Allspring Global Investments.
This being the 2020s, waste collect-
ing is also about reducing and reusing
Giants Thrive
trash. The companies have busy
recycling businesses, in which reve-
nue is driven by market prices for
different classes of sorted recyclables.
Economy
ably high during the pandemic’s on-
line-shopping boom—trading at about
$150 per ton—then collapsed to $35
late last year. A rebound might be in
store, with governments’ minimum-
recycled-content mandates and com-
Waste-collection companies are panies’ sustainability pledges leading
defensive picks that still have solid to more demand and firmer pricing in
growth prospects coming years.
Waste companies have also started
capturing methane emitted by decom-
posing material at landfills and con-
BY NICHOLAS JASINSKI Waste Management will host an investor day in April to discuss its sustainability investments, a potential catalyst. verting it into renewable natural gas
W
used to generate electricity or to
hen Benjamin Franklin Your Trash Ain’t Nothing but Cash power garbage trucks. Every gallon
said that death and Solid-waste services are a necessary business with recession protection and the ability to grow margins. produced yields a renewable identifi-
taxes are the only two The stocks are cheap relative to their history. cation number, or RIN—an
certainties in the world, Company / Ticker Recent Price Market Value (bil) 2023E P/E Dividend Yield Environmental Protection Agency–
he left out a third: gar- regulated credit that can be sold by
Waste Management / WM $153.14 $62.1 25.3 1.8%
bage. And these days, solid-waste companies to others inter-
Republic Services / RSG 125.81 39.7 25.0 1.6
the pileup is endless. ested in offsetting fossil-fuel usage or
That makes for an enviable business Waste Connections / WCN 135.53 34.9 31.9 0.8 meeting regulatory quotas.
for the companies tasked with cleaning E=estimate Source: Bloomberg Investments in recycling and
up the mess. emissions-capture infrastructure could
In North America, the market for weigh on cash-flow growth in the next
nontoxic garbage collection, transpor- says Stifel analyst Michael Hoffman, high barriers to entry: Building land- few years before beginning to pay off
tation, processing, and disposal—what who has Buy ratings on Waste Connec- fills or other waste-processing infra- around the middle of this decade.
insiders call solid-waste services—has tions and Republic Services. structure is unpopular and subject to Waste Management, for one, will host
been through a multidecade process of It isn’t hard to see what makes gar- extensive federal and local regulations. an investor day in April to discuss its
consolidation. Today, there are three bage-collection such a steady business. Years of M&A have resulted in a sustainability investments, a potential
giants atop the industry: Waste Man- Trash accumulates and then needs to shrinking number of smaller publicly catalyst for the shares.
agement (ticker: WM), with a market be hauled away and disposed of. The traded companies, including GFL En- All three garbage companies—which
value of $63 billion; the $42 billion amount rises and falls with the econ- vironmental (GFL) and Casella tend to trade in lockstep—are lagging
Republic Services (RSG); and the $35 omy—a restaurant, for instance, sees Waste Systems (CWST), and family or behind the S&P 500 by a considerable
billion Waste Connections (WCN). In fewer customers and produces less private-equity-owned firms. margin, despite having superior 2023
many ways, they’re like utilities and food waste during a downturn. But Those dynamics give the industry growth prospects. Waste Management
have similar defensive qualities: They commercial and industrial contracts pricing power, which came in handy shares have lost 1%, while Republic
provide services that people and com- tend to be long term and tied to the size in 2022 as inflation heated up. Overall Services and Waste Connections are up
panies always need. of a container and the number of rate increases in the high-single digit 2%. And their valuation multiples have
Safety, though, has gone out of style weekly pickups from a location, not the percentage range were enough to keep been contracting. Waste Management
in 2023, and garbage stocks have fallen volume of trash. During an economic up with increasing costs—chiefly and Republic Services each go for
from favor, along with other defensive downturn, truck and transfer stations labor—and little else. In 2023, the in- around 25 times their estimated earn-
sectors, even though they have the abil- have less trash to deal with, lowering dustry’s price increases could be slim- ings this year, near the bottom of their
ity to grow in a way that utilities never the cost of doing business and counter- mer than last year’s, but more of that range of 24 times to 30 times since
could. They also possess monopoly-like ing any service cutbacks when con- will flow through to the companies’ 2020’s Covid-19 bear market. Waste
qualities and ample pricing power to tracts eventually renew. bottom lines. Hoffman foresees 5% to Connections trades at a premium 32
keep up with inflation. And with their For residential trash, the firms tend 6% growth in pricing across the indus- times earnings, thanks to its higher
underperformance, Waste Manage- to contract directly with homeowners try, and about a half-percentage point level of municipal contracts, versus its
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
ment, Republic Services, and Waste on a monthly or annual basis, and with of profit-margin expansion. range of 29 times to 38 times in the past
Connections are now as attractive from municipalities and homeowners’ asso- “We are thrilled with their ability to nearly three years.
a valuation standpoint as they have ciations on multiyear terms, often drive pricing power, which began long For investors worried about an-
been in years. granting them exclusive rights. Cus- before the current inflationary back- other downturn after the 2023 stock
“The group sold off, fundamentals tomers have little opportunity to shop drop,” says Bryant VanCronkhite, a market run-up, solid-waste stocks
remain good, [and] the outlook is for around for a better deal. And new com- senior portfolio manager and co-team might be the answer. B
healthy margin expansion in 2023,” petition isn’t likely to pop up, given leader for the special global equity team —Teresa Rivas contributed to this article.
14 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
T
he world thrives on plas- The cost seems negligible—a penny der pressure from activist sharehold- Waste bound for a are making it tougher to cut back.
landfill in the United
tic—one of the most endur- in a $20 takeout order. But a global ers and governments, companies like Arab Emirates. The “This is an enormous challenge and
ing, versatile materials ever addiction to plastic is turning into an Coca-Cola (ticker: KO), Mondelez Persian Gulf state a crisis,” says Michael Goltzman, vice
aims to divert 75%
invented. It’s in our coffee environmental disaster, challenging International (MDLZ), and Nestlé of solid waste from
president of global public policy and
pods, clothes, cars we drive goals to curb greenhouse-gas emis- (NSRGY) have promised to cut back on landfills to generat- sustainability at Coca-Cola, one of the
to work, and tech devices sions and reduce the 354 million tons new plastic and use more recycled ing energy. largest buyers of lightweight plastic
we can’t live without. Ex- of waste that’s landfilled or inciner- content. Yet progress reports show for the consumer market.
tracting ourselves from plastic-land is ated, or that drifts out to sea, each year. many companies using more plastic Petrochemical companies, while
tough. Buy strawberries in a clamshell It’s also a quandary for the con- and falling short of sustainability tar- incentivized to make new plastic, say
box, and you’re in the plastic economy. sumer packaged-goods industry. Un- gets—colliding with market forces that they are trying to mitigate the impact
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 15
by investing in recycling plants and to the Australian nonprofit Minderoo growing, while demand for crude is
technologies, and cutting their own Foundation. An additional 6.6 million peaking,” says Vafiadis. “They’re mov-
emissions. Consumer-products compa- tons of waste was generated in 2021 ing to where the growth is.”
nies are making progress, increasing compared with 2019. A consequence may be more waste
their use of recycled materials and pro- For companies trying to meet sus- and emissions. Plastic waste produced
moting alternatives to plastic, like alu- tainability targets, one option would globally is on track to triple by 2060,
minum and refillable bottles. be to source more recycled materials with less than a fifth recycled, accord-
However, there is still a big problem: and pass the higher costs to consum- ing to the Organization for Economic
New “virgin” plastic costs substantially ers. That looks unrealistic, given tight Cooperation and Development, or
less than recycled plastic in major seg- supplies and high prices in many cate- OECD. Plastic production is also ex-
ments of consumer goods. gories. “Will it be difficult for compa- pected to increase carbon emissions
Recycled content is known as post- nies to meet their targets? Yes, for from 1.8 billion metric tons—or 3.4% of
consumer resin, or PCR. One broad many reasons,” says Fredric Bauer, a the total in 2019—to 4.3 billion metric
category, called HDPE, goes into con- chemical engineer at Lund University tons by 2060, the OECD says. Without
tainers for things like detergent, sham- in Sweden. offsets elsewhere, that could negate
poo, motor oil, and milk. It’s now far Moreover, consumers are more price some gains from electric vehicles, solar,
cheaper to use the brand-new stuff. A sensitive with inflation at 6.4%. Many and other decarbonizing technologies.
pound of virgin HDPE costs 54 cents companies have already passed along “It’s a recipe for disaster,” says
versus $1.33 for recycled material, a price increases to consumers; if pack- Judith Enck, a former regional ad-
146% premium, according to data from agers have to spend double the price on ministrator for the Environmental
Chemical Market Analytics, a company plastic, it could mean having to find Protection Agency and head of the
owned by Barron’s parent Dow Jones. cost savings elsewhere. “Everybody has nonprofit Beyond Plastics.
In 2018, the premium averaged 31.3%, ESG commitments, and that makes
making the costs easier to absorb. things more difficult,” says Evercore Cheap Plastic Collides With ESG
“It has become very expensive to use ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein, referring The origins of the situation go back
recycled materials. That’s not going to to environmental, social, and gover- more than a decade, when competing
change anytime soon,” says Nick Vafi- nance investing. He notes that compa- forces put plastic and sustainability on
adis, head of global plastics and poly- nies are now substituting aluminum today’s crash course. Coca-Cola, one of attorney for climate and energy at the
the world’s largest
mers at Chemical Market Analytics. for plastic bottles, since aluminum is The first force was the hydraulic- plastic users, is Center for International Environmen-
Another category is PET—a clear, viewed as “infinitely recyclable.” fracturing, or fracking, boom, as en- targeting 50% recy- tal Law.
cled material in
lightweight plastic that primarily goes Companies are making progress. ergy companies started extracting oil packaging by 2030.
Today, there isn’t enough demand to
into disposable bottles and is used as Nestlé is on track to cut its use of virgin and gas from shale rock. Fracking absorb the new plastic being produced.
fiber in things like carpeting, uphol- plastic by a third by 2025, says Jodie created a glut of natural gas, providing But still more is coming. Shell recently
stery, and garments. For bottles, recy- Roussell, head of public affairs for an abundant supply of ethane, a feed- started production at a polyethylene
cled PET now costs less than virgin packaging and sustainability. “We have stock or raw material in many plas- plant in Pennsylvania. U.S.-based pro-
plastic due to a temporary slowdown in moved beyond peak virgin plastic,” she tics. Companies like Exxon Mobil ducers have a cost advantage with nat-
demand for fiber. But once supply and says. By 2025, more than 95% of (XOM) and Shell (SHEL) expanded or ural gas as a feedstock, says Vafiadis,
demand normalize, premiums for recy- Nestlé’s packaging will be recyclable or built “cracker” plants to turn ethane and much of the new U.S. plastic is
cled PET are expected to re-emerge. reusable, she adds. into ethylene, which could be con- likely to be exported to China and
The situation is making it tougher Coca-Cola, one of the world’s largest verted to polyethylene—lentil-size other regions where demand is rising.
for companies to cut down on plastic, plastic users, has promised to use 50% pellets transformed into things like The other force has been rising
despite growing pressure to make recycled material in packaging by trash bags and milk jugs. demand for recycled material. Prod-
progress. The European Union, at the 2030. Coke and Pepsi also say they’re “Plastics have been the growth ded by ESG, companies are under
forefront of regional efforts, has designing products with less plastic, story for the fossil-fuel industry in the pressure to cut waste and use more
banned single-use plastic items and known as “lightweighting.” 21st century,” says Steven Feit, senior recycled content.
Christopher Pike/Bloomberg (opposite page); VCG/Getty Images (Coca-Cola)
recently proposed new recycled-con- Yet growing demand, especially in Retailers and consumer-goods
tent targets. A United Nations initia- emerging markets, incentivizes produc- manufacturers also made bold prom-
tive is under way to develop a legally tion of virgin plastic—now more than Paying a Premium ises. Dozens of them, responsible for a
binding agreement on plastic pollu- 500 million tons a year. And while Prices for recycled HDPE plastic have surged above prices third of plastic packaging by weight,
tion in 2024. In the U.S., eight states, production growth has slowed lately, for brand-new plastic. signed a U.S. pact in 2020 to make
including California and New York, it’s expected to reaccelerate. Globally, 100% of their packaging reusable,
Cents per pound
have banned single-use plastic bags. more than 120 plastic production facili- recyclable, or compostable by 2025.
Shareholder activists are ramping ties have been commissioned or started Recycled HDPE New Names on the list include Walmart
up pressure. PepsiCo (PEP) pledged operations since 2020, according to (WMT), Target (TGT), Coca-Cola,
200
in December to double the percentage Chemical Market Analytics. More than General Mills (GIS), Mondelez, and
of beverage servings it sells through 40 million tons of capacity to produce Danone North America.
150
reusable systems like soda dispensers polyolefins, a plastic primarily used in Yet for years now, recycling has
from 10% to 20% by 2030, following a packaging, has been added, adding barely advanced. Even with millions
100
pressure campaign from As You Sow, 20% to potential production. of Americans dutifully rinsing con-
a sustainability nonprofit. Another wave is coming in the 50
tainers and filling blue bins, just 5% of
Yet virgin plastic production and Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Qatar plastic is recycled, according to esti-
waste only appear to be growing. From are investing in plants to produce 0 mates from the U.S. Department of
2019 to 2021, growth in single-use plas- plastic, partly because they anticipate 2018 '19 '20 '21 '22
Energy. Almost all is landfilled, incin-
tics made from virgin materials was 15 declines in oil demand as electric vehi- erated, exported, or washed to sea.
Note: HDPE=High-density polyethylene
times that of recycled resins, according cles take off. “Demand for plastics is Source: Chemical Market Analytics The shortcomings of recycling arise
16 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
BY AL ROOT Dow (DOW / NYSE) LyondellBasell Industries (LYB / NYSE) Celanese (CE / NYSE)
W
$80 $125 $200
hen people think of plas-
tics, they might not think 100
60 150
first of chemical compa-
75
nies. But it’s the Dows and
Celaneses of the world 40 100
50
that make plastics and all
the stuff that goes into 20 25 50
them. For investors thinking about expo- 2021 ’22 ’23 2021 ’22 ’23 2021 ’22 ’23
sure to plastics, they are the place to look.
Recent Price: $59.76 2023E P/E: 18.4 Recent Price: $100.11 2023E P/E: 10.9 Recent Price: $122.89 2023E P/E: 9.7
Though we call them chemical com-
YTD Change: 18.6% Dividend Yield: 4.7% YTD Change: 20.6% Dividend Yield: 4.8% YTD Change: 20.2% Dividend Yield: 2.3%
panies, many are really just plastics
companies. Dow (ticker: DOW), for in-
stance, breaks itself into six businesses n Dow has a plastics problem. The company n LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) like Dow, is a n Celanese (CE) operates in three segments:
that go into three segments. They make can produce about 10 million metric tons of huge chemical producer, and it makes, well, every- acetyls, which are intermediate chemical products
polyethylene—used in everything from trash bags thing. Its products range from resins for plastic that end up in substances such as paint; engi-
chemicals with names like propylene
to toys—a year. Making it, however, releases cups and car parts to foam insulation and pipes. neered materials, everything from cars to medical
oxide, propylene glycol, polyether poly- carbon dioxide, a gas blamed for climate change. Last year, the company pumped out $50.5 billion in devices; and acetate tow, which is used in ciga-
ols, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chlo- The company is trying to remedy that. Dow’s revenue and $6.5 billion in earnings before inter- rette filters. Celanese has less of a carbon prob-
ride monomer. All are used to manufac- packaging division is focused on recycling and est, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or lem than Dow and Lyondell. Acetate tow is bio-
ture packaging, industrial parts, and creating lighter products. Dow also plans to use Ebitda. But now, investors are worried about degradable, and most of Celanese’s plastics aren’t
hydrogen- and carbon-sequestration technology, the economy, not sustainability. Still, CEO Peter of the single-use variety. Celanese has generated
even latex for paint, which is, after all, so that no CO2 is released into the atmosphere. Vanacker, who took over in May 2022 after running about $2.3 billion in Ebitda on average over the
liquid plastic. Dow believes it can do all of that while improving Finnish renewable-energy company Neste, has a past three years, and Wall Street expects the
To make commodity chemical prod- earnings. If the Midland, Mich.-based company long-term plan. It should be revealed at Lyondell’s number to approach $4 billion in coming years,
ucts such as the polypropylene in Ziploc succeeds, its stock could be worth $100 in a investor day on March 14. Don’t be surprised if boosted by the company’s acquisition of a Du-
few years, about 67% above the current level. sustainability is on the agenda. Pont de Nemours’ (DD) plastics division.
bags, chemical companies start with in-
puts derived from oil or natural gas. The
price of these energy products sets the
costs and relative competitiveness within Berry Global Group (BERY / NYSE) Origin Materials (ORGN / Nasdaq) Univar Solutions (UNVR / NYSE)
the industry. All chemical producers are $80 $15.0 $40
trying to earn a “spread” over the input
12.5
costs. How big that spread is depends 30
60
on the state of the global economy and 10.0
20
on supply and demand. 7.5
These dynamics mean that chemical 40
10
stocks don’t make for easy investments. 5.0
A diagram of products looks like a New 20 2.5 0
York subway map. There is also what’s 2021 ’22 ’23 2021 ’22 ’23 2021 ’22 ’23
going on in the economy to consider, and
Recent Price: $63.58 2023E P/E*: 8.6 Recent Price: $5.12 2023E P/E: NM Recent Price: $34.78 2023E P/E: 11.6
energy markets help set input costs and
YTD Change: 5.2% Dividend Yield: 1.6% YTD Change: 11.1% Dividend Yield: None YTD Change: 9.4% Dividend Yield: None
product prices. Then, there are longer-
term issues, such as sustainability, that
can affect costs, returns, and valuations n Berry Global Group (BERY) takes the plastic n Established in 2008, Origin Materials (ORGN) n Illinois-based Univar Solutions (UNVR) dis-
for the sector. resins produced by the likes of Dow and Lyondell aims to make plastics out of nonfood biomass, tributes chemical products—including those used
and turns them into bags, bottles, and whatever else including wood and wood waste. The company to make plastic—to more than 100,000 customers
Right now, the plastics market is partic-
a customer needs. Making such products might says that it will be carbon-negative because the across 115 countries from about 600 facilities.
ularly fraught. Demand has weakened as raise environmental alarm bells, but “plastics are an carbon locked up in the trees exceeds the amount The stock trades for 11.6 times estimated 2023
central bankers raise interest rates, caus- engineered product,” says Baird analyst Ghansham that will be released during manufacturing. Origin earnings, a reasonable multiple for a company
ing earnings estimates for the chemical Panjabi, meaning they can be re-engineered and is finishing its first plant in Sarnia, Ontario, where it that has grown Ebitda to more than $1 billion
companies to fall. But there’s also a chance made from more Earth-friendly options. Berry will produce polyethylene terephthalate, a recycla- annually from about $600 million a few years ago.
trades at just 8.6 times earnings for its fiscal year ble material used to make products including bot- Fellow chemical distributor Brenntag (BNR.Ger-
that the Federal Reserve hasn’t done ending in September, a low multiple that reflects the tles for soda and shampoo. It has no sales yet, so many), which tried to buy Univar at the end of
enough to slow inflation and the economy. company’s large debt load, generated by an aggres- valuing it can be tricky, just as it is for all specula- 2022, seemed to think the multiple was reason-
If the economy accelerates, chemical pro- sive acquisition strategy. Management plans to pay tive stocks. Still, Fermium Research analyst Frank able, too. A deal wasn’t struck, but private-equity
ducers will look more attractive. down debt and return cash to shareholders. As that Mitsch is confident that the shares can deliver. The firms are looking at Univar, Mitsch says. So, in-
process unfolds, the stock should rise. technology “passed my test,” he says. vestors eventually might get a takeout premium.
Here are six chemicals and plastics
companies worth a look: E=estimate; *Sept. fiscal year end; NM=not meaningful Source: Bloomberg
18 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
I
ings look at the one-year records of Owning companies in the fossil- firm like the No. 2–ranked, $153 billion
nvestors build wealth when how each firm’s actively managed fuel energy sector was a key to out- Victory Capital Management can rub
markets rally, but losing less funds performed versus peers, based performance in 2022, as the S&P 500 shoulders with much larger firms.
when markets fall also matters on data from Refinitiv Lipper. Energy sector jumped 59%. Many of That’s also true for Madison Invest-
for long-term returns. The focus on one-year relative per- the best-performing funds last year ments, which made its debut on our list
In a year when U.S. equities formance is clearly a snapshot in time, held Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM), last year at No. 51. It rose to No. 6 on
had their worst one-year returns but one that offers insight into how which returned 87%, making it the the back of strong performance from
since 2008 and bonds notched diversified firms responded to a swift fourth-best-performing stock in the its world-equity and tax-exempt funds.
their worst year ever, 2022 was a change in macroeconomic conditions S&P 500. The oil giant posted a $56 There were other changes from last
chance for active fund managers to and market leadership across a range billion profit in 2022, a company year’s list. In 2021, Sit Investment As-
prove their risk-management skills by of actively managed funds. record. sociates was ranked No. 1, but weaker
Cap (VPMAX), its largest general No. 1: Dimensional Fund fund’s name means it has a heavier “Clients can buy multiple products
equity fund, beat 86% of its peers. Advisors value tilt than other core funds, in this and funds and not get the same way
Dimensional’s data-driven approach case from 6% to 12%. In all, Dimen- of investing. So, it’s a kind of almost
This Year’s List and its dynamic and systematic pro- sional has 142 U.S.-based funds. built-in diversification,” Dhillon says,
To be included in the ranking, firms cess allowed it to take advantage of Dimensional managers’ systematic noting that managers can speak with
must offer at least three actively man- 2022’s volatility and steer clear of process gave them a unique opportu- one another and share notes, but
aged mutual funds or active exchange- value traps. The firm uses factor nity to take advantage of volatility. there’s no obligation to do so.
traded funds in Lipper’s general U.S. investing to highlight the sources The process flagged managers to sell It seems to be working, as Victory
stock category, plus one in world eq- of higher expected return, and it the unprofitable small-cap retailer has bounced around the top 15 in the
uity and one mixed-asset—such as a keeps close tabs on equity premiums Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). As the survey for the past several years. What
balanced or allocation fund. They also through daily price information. managers were starting to sell, the helped power the firm to the No. 2 spot
need to offer at least two taxable bond Dimensional’s managers watch for stock jumped in a meme-stock rally, of Barron’s overall survey was its con-
funds and one national tax-exempt buying opportunities when growth allowing them to take advantage of vertible-bond fund, the $409 million
bond fund. All funds on our list must stocks fall into value territory, and they eager buyers amid the price spike. Victory Incore Investment Grade
have a track record of at least one year. also rely on factors such as momentum Since then, the retailer’s stock has Convertibles (VICIX).
The ranking also includes “smart to determine if it’s time to buy. That fallen sharply. Sometimes in markets, Our latest ranking marks the sec-
beta” ETFs, which are run passively helps them to not “catch a falling portfolio managers can get a little ond straight year that Victory landed
but built on active investment strate- knife,” Mary Phillips says. lucky, although Phillips sees it a little in the mixed-asset category’s top spot,
gies. The list reflects each firm’s Momentum studies warned manag- differently. and it did it this time by beating 91%
active-management ability. ers that Meta Platforms’ (META) “Luck favors the prepared,” she of its peers, largely thanks to that
All told, just 49 asset managers drop into value territory in 2022 was says. bond fund, which was also mentioned
out of the 854 in Lipper’s database so fast that it had more room to fall. as a financial-advisor favorite in Bar-
met our criteria for 2022. There are Dimensional stayed on the sidelines, No. 2: Victory Capital ron’s 2023 bond-fund outlook. The
some changes from last year’s rank- even as value indexes added the stock Management secret sauce for its two years of out-
ing. Natixis Investment Managers in midsummer. As the studies also Unlike other fund managers in Barron’s performance relative to peers is own-
and Cavanal Hill Investment Manage- warned, Meta fell further, ultimately top five, Victory Capital Management ing investment-grade convertible is-
ment dropped from the list, as they dropping about 64% last year. Toward is a multi-boutique asset manager. Its sues. Otherwise, the convertible-bond
no longer have enough funds in all of year end, the selling momentum investment teams operate autono- market is “pretty junk-laden,” says
the categories to qualify. Natixis had slowed, and Dimensional has been mously and independently from one Richard Consul, fixed-income strate-
a tax-exempt bond fund that closed “popping in and out” of the stock, fol- another when constructing portfolios gist at Incore Capital Management.
in April, and Cavanal Hill closed its lowing daily price guidance, she says. and making investment decisions. Additionally, it owns names with
mixed-asset fund in February. Dimensional’s equity funds are That structure allows managers to bigger market caps and is more value-
Many other large fund managers highly diversified, often holding 2,700 focus solely on managing money and oriented than its peers, he says, two
are consistently absent because they names, as is the case for the firm’s client outcomes, says Mannik Dhillon, other attributes that have worked in its
don’t check all of the boxes in the cat- largest fund, the $28.5 billion DFA head of product and strategy at the favor for the past two years. In 2022,
egories we consider. Notable names in US Equity Core 2 (DFQTX), so that San Antonio–based firm, which man- Consul added the convertible bonds of
that category include Janus Hender- no one company has an outsize influ- ages $41.3 billion in 60 active mutual energy companies Pioneer Natural
son and Dodge & Cox. ence. Phillips says the No. 2 in the funds and ETFs. Resources (PXD) and EQT (EQT),
U.S. Equity World Equity Mixed Equity Taxable Bond Tax-Exempt Bond
Neuberger Berman easily landed at A strong dollar hurt international Amundi’s Pioneer Multi-Asset Income Sit Investment Associates, Barron’s Dimensional has two muni-bond
the top of the heap with its Large Cap stocks. Currency hedging in the $2 fund held more smaller-cap and value- No. 1 overall fund family in 2021, funds with more than $1 billion each
Value fund powering performance, billion Pimco StocksPLUS Internation- oriented companies, which helped the topped this year’s taxable-bond spot in AUM, including the DFA Municipal
having lost only 1.1% in a year when al fund helped Pimco beat 96% of its $2.4 billion fund beat 96% of its peers thanks to its Sit US Government Securi- Real Return fund, helping it move to
the broader market was down 18%. peers and edge out Goldman Sachs. and earn a 0.49% return. ties fund, which beat 98% of its peers. the No. 5 spot.
1 Neuberger Berman 27.00 1 Pimco 13.58 1 Victory Capital Mgmt 19.62 1 Sit Investment Associates 20.99 1 Madison Investments 4.33
2 Victory Capital Mgmt 26.72 2 Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt 13.44 2 Neuberger Berman 18.94 2 MainStay Funds 18.03 2 Manning & Napier Advisors 4.33
3 J.P. Morgan Asset Mgmt 26.27 3 MFS Investment Mgmt 12.87 3 Hartford Funds 18.49 3 J.P. Morgan Asset Mgmt 16.91 3 Touchstone Investments 3.84
4 SEI Investments 24.90 4 Madison Investments 11.99 4 Amundi US 18.47 4 Putnam Investments 16.46 4 State Street Global Advisors 3.77
5 Putnam Investments 24.52 5 Dimensional Fund Advisors 11.88 5 Dimensional Fund Advisors 18.46 5 Capital Grp /American Funds 14.95 5 Dimensional Fund Advisors 3.74
45 Nuveen 14.16 45 Macquarie Asset Mgmt 4.63 45 Russell Investments 6.58 45 Columbia Threadneedle 6.76 45 USAA Mutual Funds 1.01
46 Affiliated Managers Group 14.11 46 Sit Investment Associates 4.46 46 Transamerica Asset Mgmt 5.80 46 State Street Global Advisors 6.17 46 Macquarie Asset Mgmt 0.90
47 Pimco 13.85 47 Transamerica Asset Mgmt 3.04 47 Lord Abbett 4.57 47 Franklin Templeton 6.15 47 Sit Investment Associates 0.69
48 Transamerica Asset Mgmt 12.35 48 PGIM Investments 2.38 48 Virtus Investment Partners 4.25 48 Guggenheim Investments 5.26 48 Lord Abbett 0.64
49 Lord Abbett 8.54 49 Touchstone Investments 1.68 49 Sit Investment Associates 0.66 49 Northern Trust Investments 4.75 49 Transamerica Asset Mgmt 0.14
Source: Refinitiv Lipper
20 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
The Best Fund Families of 2022 based on attractive stock valuations setup than energy. “The barrier to
Last year saw losses in both bond and stock markets, with wider price swings and greater dispersion among and improving credit quality, which entry and the capital deprivation that
investing styles and market sectors. Greater volatility can provide active managers with more opportunity. boosted performance. Price apprecia- it experienced make this a very long
This is the sixth year we’ve ranked the fund families purely on their actively managed funds. tion from health insurer Elevance runway,” he says.
Tax- Health (ELV) also gave the fund a lift.
2022
Rank
2021
Rank Fund Family
Total
Assets (mil)*
Weighted
Score
U.S.
Equity
World
Equity
Mixed
Equity
Taxable Exempt
Bond Bond
Another powerhouse for Victory’s No. 4: Capital Group
overall ranking was the $16.7 billion A solid showing in several of the $2.2
1 5 Dimensional Fund Advisors $433,452 69.94 7 5 5 24 5
Victory Sycamore Established trillion Capital Group’s biggest funds
2 8 Victory Capital Management 41,273 69.59 2 13 1 22 40
Value fund (VEVIX), which beat 83% helped the firm move from the middle
3 6 Neuberger Berman 43,079 66.45 1 28 2 30 31 of its peers, losing only 2.5% in 2022. of the pack in 2021 to fourth place in
4 21 Capital Group/American Funds 2,164,775 66.16 10 24 7 5 9 This mid-cap fund looks for quality this year’s survey, with its fixed-income
5 35 J.P. Morgan Asset Management 458,028 65.13 3 32 23 3 19 low-volatility companies that it can offerings driving the leap.
6 51 Madison Investments 2,076 64.88 31 4 9 11 1
buy at a discount; however, it is closed The Los Angeles–based firm
to new investors. ranked fifth in the taxable-bond cate-
7 9 MainStay Funds 56,591 64.75 28 9 11 2 28
gory on the strength of its largest
8 33 Federated Hermes 68,815 64.62 6 8 10 27 17
No. 3: Neuberger Berman taxable bond fund, the $71.1 billion
9 27 Putnam Investment Management 69,530 61.80 5 19 35 4 16 The firm’s focus on fundamental, American Funds Bond Fund of
10 38 Hartford Funds 104,936 59.71 24 10 3 36 41 bottom-up, long-term investing means America (ABNDX), which topped
11 42 Allspring Global Investments 69,093 58.84 14 7 24 26 10 it doesn’t get too caught up in trends, 86% of its peers in the Barron’s sur-
12 46 Morgan Stanley Investment Management 136,515 58.54 26 39 12 7 12
whether it’s the excessive risk-taking vey. Bond selection also support the
of 2021 or the bearishness of 2022, relative performance of its balanced
13 20 Goldman Sachs Asset Management 114,292 58.44 34 2 8 37 24
according to Joseph Amato. Still, last fund, the $200 billion American
14 17 MFS Investment Management 349,725 57.35 29 3 14 34 35 year’s macroeconomic environment Funds American Balanced (AB-
15 3 Amundi US 38,848 57.34 21 30 4 38 30 was “as challenging and confusing as ALX), which beat 87% of its peers in
16 24 American Century Investments 135,665 56.94 11 14 19 32 27 I’ve seen in a long, long time,” he says. a year when the 60/40 stock/bond
17 41 First Trust Advisors 48,321 55.79 32 17 22 10 18 With expectations of tighter mone- portfolio took a shellacking.
18 34 Franklin Templeton Investments 375,634 54.83 22 25 6 47 32
tary policy and headwinds for eco- Pramod Atluri, principal invest-
nomic growth, the $437 billion firm ment officer at Bond Fund of America,
19 18 BNY Mellon Investment Management 46,258 54.05 30 16 28 15 22
entered 2022 defensively and moved says that a few factors convinced him
20 23 Invesco 244,115 54.03 9 42 17 29 23 to an underweight in equities for the in 2021 that inflation would be higher
21 43 Vanguard Group 1,644,535 53.86 15 23 18 42 11 first time in a long time, he adds. than the consensus view: consumers
22 39 SEI Investments 78,092 53.56 4 34 21 44 36 In all, Neuberger manages $43.1 being in good shape coming out of the
23 4 Pimco 350,174 53.35 47 1 25 23 14 billion across 37 active funds, and its Covid-induced recession, dovish mon-
biggest stock fund, the $13.2 billion etary policy, and high valuations for
24 49 Brinker Capital 13,105 52.67 41 6 33 14 6
Neuberger Large Cap Value risky assets. It wasn’t a stretch to ex-
25 31 Principal Asset Management 152,442 52.65 12 33 39 8 42
(NPRTX), powered the firm to the No. 1 pect inflation to rise. Going into 2022,
26 14 USAA Mutual Funds 44,725 52.40 44 27 13 9 45 spot in the U.S. equity category. Eli Atluri underweighted risky assets
27 2 AllianceBernstein 90,611 52.19 25 12 34 33 8 Salzmann, the fund’s senior portfolio such as agency mortgage-backed secu-
28 32 Manning & Napier Advisors 5,572 52.13 27 36 31 17 2 manager, says two moves drove perfor- rities; reduced duration, which mea-
29 47 UBS Asset Management 7,528 51.85 19 22 26 39 20 mance in 2022: overweighting energy sures how sensitive a bond is to inter-
by 1½ times the Russell 1000 Value est rates; and put 13.5% of the
30 10 Fidelity Investments 1,692,387 51.01 17 26 42 21 13
index at the beginning of the year, and portfolio in short-maturity Treasury
31 29 Nuveen 215,740 50.52 45 31 15 13 33
its zero technology weighting. inflation-protected securities, all of
32 25 Guggenheim Investments 32,617 49.58 8 21 29 48 44 The fund looks for companies in which underpinned performance.
33 15 Macquarie Asset Management 84,589 48.71 13 45 27 31 46 industries with capital and capacity Capital Group has $2.16 trillion in
34 40 BlackRock 319,949 48.68 33 35 30 18 26 constraints, and he found that in the its 48 active U.S. mutual funds and
35 1 Sit Investment Associates 1,449 47.17 20 46 49 1 47
energy sector, having bought Exxon ETFs, and manages some of the larg-
in 2020 and Chevron (CVX) in 2021, est mutual funds by assets in the in-
36 13 T. Rowe Price 717,713 46.25 43 18 38 25 21
among others. He had only owned dustry. Bond Fund of America is one
37 19 John Hancock 165,498 45.73 18 41 37 41 15 the sector briefly twice in the past 12 of the largest active fixed-income
38 45 Affiliated Managers Group 100,201 45.54 46 20 36 20 34 years, but now he sees it benefiting funds, and Lipper classifies the Amer-
39 16 Columbia Threadneedle Investments 168,426 45.45 16 29 40 45 39 from greater capital investment in the ican Balanced fund as the largest
40 44 Northern Trust Investments 18,406 44.74 39 11 20 49 38 coming years. He has since cut the mixed-asset fund by assets in that
41 12 DWS Group 28,460 44.60 23 37 43 35 43
position to a slight overweight, al- industry category. Both of those funds
though he remains bullish. are found in many 401(k) plans.
42 50 Touchstone Investments 23,020 44.53 37 49 32 12 3
Salzmann beat 94% of his peers in To handle funds so large, Capital
43 28 Virtus Investment Partners 43,936 42.99 36 38 48 16 7 2022, and he attributes that relative Group uses a multimanager approach
44 11 Thrivent Mutual Funds 30,278 41.93 35 40 44 28 29 outperformance to many other value on its funds, and lets its analysts invest
45 36 Russell Investments 33,876 41.35 40 43 45 19 25 funds having drifted over the years to alongside the managers. The approach
46 37 PGIM Investments 127,431 39.74 42 48 16 43 37 growth. “One of the things that really doesn’t overburden one person, and
helped us is that we stuck to our disci- “our incentives, and the investors’ in-
47 48 State Street Global Advisors 35,409 38.01 38 44 41 46 4
pline,” he says. centives, are well aligned on the long
48 30 Transamerica Asset Management 33,741 36.21 48 47 46 6 49
Looking ahead, he is extremely term,” says Alan Berro, an equity port-
49 22 Lord Abbett 145,010 31.96 49 15 47 40 48 excited about the metals and mining folio manager who sits on Capital
*Total assets reflect the funds included in this survey Source: Refinitiv Lipper sector, which he argues has a better Group’s portfolio solutions committee.
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 21
10
Management
Neuberger Berman 65.81
with a 3.5% loss in 2022. The strategy brokerage account
is twofold, says manager Hamilton
Source: Refinitiv Lipper
Reiner, who has managed a similar If the total market value of your account is less than
strategy since 2018 in the JPMorgan $100,000 - the interest payment will be proportionally less.
10-Year Ranking Equity Premium Income mutual There will be no interest paid on the first $10,000 of cash.
Vanguard continues to hold its No. 1 fund (JEPAX). The ETF owns a di-
spot in the 10-year ranking, as it did verse collection of high-quality stocks
with predictable earnings and reason-
in from 2019-21 and in 2017. In 2018,
Pimco took briefly took the top spot. able valuations, and it boosts income Broker Interest Rate
Putnam Investments moved to No. 2 by selling out-of-the-money S&P 500
4.08%
2
after being No. 6 last year. options. Interactive Brokers
Weighted
Being underweight technology
Rank Fund Family Score helped returns, as did owning Exxon
1 and insurer Progressive (PGR). Sell-
0.01%
Vanguard Group 76.95
2 Putnam Investments 71.14 ing options generated an 11% yield, E-Trade
3 Amundi US 70.58
without using any leverage. It also
reduced volatility to the broader S&P
4 MFS Investment Management 70.44
500 by two-thirds, an underestimated
5 Fidelity Investments 70.11
benefit, Reiner says. Don’t expect an Fidelity 2.32%
6 T. Rowe Price 69.90
11% yield each year, as 2022’s height-
7 Dimensional Fund Advisors 68.82 ened volatility enhanced the yield, he
8
0.45%
Hartford Funds 68.77 says, adding that the long-term average
9 Capital Group/American Funds 68.52 should be closer to 7% to 9%. Schwab
10 Morgan Stanley Investment 68.13 Looking ahead to 2023, many fund
Management managers agree it will be another vola-
Source: Refinitiv Lipper tile year, and many remain cautious,
including George Gatch, CEO of J.P.
TD Ameritrade 0.35%
Morgan Asset Management. Tech was
No. 5: J.P. Morgan Asset rallying early in 2023, but Gatch says
Management valuations, on a historical basis, still
J.P. Morgan Asset Management cata- aren’t cheap. Along with some other
pulted from No. 35 in 2021’s survey to managers, he thinks the most signifi-
No. 5 this year on the back of strong cant opportunities for 2023 are in
relative performance in its well-estab- bonds, now that interest rates are
lished value-oriented mutual funds, higher. That bodes well for strategies
but it was also underpinned by its like the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. ibkr.com/earninterest
expanding lineup of active ETFs. “We do think a 60/40 portfolio is
Its strong relative performance came quite attractive today, particularly if
in part from its biggest equity fund, the it’s well diversified on the equity expo- Member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC. Supporting documentation for any claims and statistical information will
$49.2 billion JPMorgan Equity In- sure,” he says, which includes U.S., be provided upon request. Competitor rates and offers subject to change without notice. Services vary
come (OIEIX), run by Clare Hart, international, and emerging markets by firm. [1] Credit interest rates as of 02/06/2023. [2] Rate shown applies to IBKR Pro clients only. USD
credit interest is paid at the stated rate on balances over USD 10,000 in securities accounts with NAV
which had both Exxon Mobil and exposure. “Bonds will provide more exceeding USD 100,000. Accounts with less than 100,000 NAV will receive USD credit interest at rates
ConocoPhillips (COP) as its top two stability and insulation against volatil- proportional to the size of the account. For more information, see ibkr.com/interestpaid 02-IB23-1595-HP
holdings. That fund is closed to new ity than in 2022,” Gatch says. B
22 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
Top Off
Retirement
Accounts
With stock values
still more than
10% off their
early 2022 highs,
consider accelerating retirement-plan
contributions this year to snap up
stocks at potentially bargain prices.
“Those who can afford to should
consider front-loading annual contri-
butions to take advantage of the sup-
pressed prices,” says Brooke May, an
advisor and co-founder of Evans May
Wealth. “Most 401(k)s allow you to
change your withholding percentage
at any time.”
Maximum contributions to defined-
contribution plans such as 401(k)s
and 403(b)s were boosted by almost
10%, to $22,500 from $20,500, for
2023, the biggest inflation adjustment
in 20 years. Folks age 50 and older
can contribute $30,000 this year, after
the catch-up contribution was boosted
to $7,500 from $6,500 last year.
This year’s individual retirement
account, or IRA, contribution limit
has been bumped to $6,500 from
$6,000. Investors 50 and older can
sock away an extra $1,000.
T
and pass more to your beneficiaries gifts just before the end of the year, but ing required minimum distributions,
he 2023 tax year has only free of taxes. our analysis shows that the beginning think about making a qualified charita-
just begun, and the tax- The latest tax law from Congress of the year is better because you get the ble distribution from your IRA to avoid
filing deadline for 2023 further enhances early-year tax appreciation out of your estate earlier, the tax on the RMDs,” she says.
taxes is more than a year moves. If you are thinking about and the recipients get the benefit of the IRS rules allow for a $100,000
away. But if you get a jump funding a 529 plan this year, do it appreciation earlier,” Lucina says. contribution made directly from an
can keep more income taxed at a lower Barbara Selig, a wealth management
tax bracket. For single filers, the 37% advisor at TIAA. If you believe the
bracket begins on income of more market will be up by year end, you
than $578,125 this year, up from may want to wait. If you are worried
$539,900. For couples filing jointly, that markets will slump further, take
the top bracket begins with income the RMD early. Or, to hedge your
of $693,750 this year, up from bets, you can take it in chunks
$647,850. The 35% threshold is up to through the year, Selig says.
$231,250 from $215,950 for singles and Keep in mind that the Secure Act
to $462,500 from $431,900 for couples. 2.0, passed in December, raised the
age when RMDs kick in to 73 from 72,
Harvest Losses effective this year. So, if you don’t need
Sell losing invest- the money, you have an extra year for
ments to offset it to grow tax-deferred.
gains throughout
Finder,
the year as oppor- Convert Your
tunities arise. If IRA Assets to a
you wait until Roth
year end, you’ll probably miss dips, and For folks whose
the market may be setting new highs. incomes are too
“2020 is a great example of why high to qualify for
not to wait until the end of the year,” contributing to a
Keepers.
says Jeremy Milleson, director of in- Roth IRA—the cutoff is $153,000 for
vestment strategy at Parametric Port- singles and $228,000 for couples—
folio Associates, which systematically converting regular IRA assets to a
harvests losses for clients. “In March, Roth is a way to fund these tax-free
the market was 34% off its February accounts. You will owe income taxes
peak. Anyone who waited missed out. on the converted amount, but with
By the end of the year, the S&P 500 market values low and time to plan,
was up by 18%.” this may be an ideal time for a 2023
The year-round systematic ap- conversion, says Steve Baxley, head of
proach can add an average 1% to 2% tax and financial planning at Besse- Barron’s Advisor Finder matches Barron’s
percentage points to after-tax returns mer Trust. ambitious readers with your financial expertise.
each year, Milleson says. Realized cap- “When stock values are down, as
ital losses can be used to offset taxable they are now, that makes a great op-
Get found, meet prospective clients, and let
gains, and up to $3,000 of losses can portunity to convert,” he says. “If you Barron’s Advisor help grow your business.
offset taxable income each year. Ex- can reduce the tax cost of a rollover by
cess losses can be rolled forward to combining it with a charitable gift, so
offset gains in future years. the deduction can offset the taxable
income, that’s a slam dunk.”
Be Strategic
About Your Establish and
RMD Fund a 529
Folks who don’t Plan
rely on their Parents of young
IRA’s required children have
minimum distri- more reason to
butions to live on often leave the man- set up a 529 plan
datory withdrawals to year end. That as soon as possible under changed
can work out well when markets are rules passed by the Secure Act 2.0
rising, because assets are allowed to late last year.
grow tax-deferred for longer. These plans allow money to be
But the size of RMDs each year is withdrawn tax-free for education
based on account values at the end of costs, but taxes and a penalty apply
the prior year. So, in a year when the when money is used for other
market tanks, early-year RMDs mean purposes.
you will need to sell fewer shares to The legislation creates another op-
satisfy them. After last year’s slide
in stock and bond prices, year-end
RMDs were inflated relative to
tion for money left over in 529 plans:
Up to $35,000 can be rolled into a
tax-free Roth IRA in a beneficiaries’
Join Now
Barrons.com/AdvisorFinderApply
battered portfolio values, and they name. But to do so, the plan must have
took an extra bite out of retirement been established at least 15 years ago.
savings. Start that 15-year clock as soon as
This year, be strategic about when possible, May says, “even if it’s with a
you want to take your RMD, says modest contribution.” B © 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 2E287
24 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
A T
fter a very poor performance in fit as capital flows shift. here’s a new entry to the hard- CPI far above the Fed’s 2% target and not
2022, emerging market bonds have “Emerging markets prefer a weaker landing/soft-landing debate— sliding as quickly as the central bank
started to rebound. This could be dollar or, at a minimum, a stable dollar,” no landing at all. Just don’t would like, Jerome Powell & Co. could be
a good time for U.S. investors to says Iain Stealey, international chief in- expect it to be good news for forced to keep raising rates.
at least consider a nibble. vestment officer of the global fixed-income the stock market. Or, as BofA Global Research Invest-
The iShares J.P. Morgan USD team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Recent headlines have remained fo- ment Strategist Michael Hartnett puts it:
Emerging Markets Bond exchange- Local-currency bonds, which have cused on whether the Federal Re- “No landing means no Fed pausing.”
traded fund (ticker: EMB), which invests grown much faster than dollar-denomi- serve will be able to engineer a smooth Indeed, if “pivot” was the previous
solely in dollar-denominated debt, lost nated debt over the past two decades, offer slowdown in the economy as it attempts rallying cry of bulls, it’s looking increas-
18.6% last year, including interest pay- sharp contrasts. With dollar-based debt, to tame inflation, or be forced to engineer ingly unlikely now that the Fed has no
ments. But as of Wednesday, it was up “you’re taking a view on the credit quality a recession to bring the consumer price incentive to halt, let alone unwind, its
1.9% in 2023, with a yield of 6.7%. of the emerging market country,” says index’s growth rate back to its 2% target. campaign of rate hikes. Deutsche Bank
Nominal emerging market bonds Stealey. But a local-currency EM bond, Yet a third option is possible, one in now expects the federal-funds rate to top
denominated in local currencies yield which has credit risk, as well, trades in which the economy never touches the out at 5.6%, up from its previous 5.1%
about 7%, on average, according to J.P. part on a particular nation’s central bank ground at all. forecast. Money-market futures aren’t far
Morgan Asset Management. Those de- policy. Plus, there’s currency risk. In this no-landing scenario, the econ- behind, suggesting a terminal rate of
nominated in hard currencies, mainly A weaker greenback can help U.S. in- omy continues its upward trajectory but 5.3%, from 4.8% as recently at the begin-
the dollar, yield about 8%. vestors in emerging market local-currency inflation refuses to be tamed. It’s one that ning of this month.
The macroeconomic backdrop for debt, in part because its returns aren’t is looking increasingly likely. January’s More optimistic economists are start-
emerging markets overall looks reason- eroded as much as it would be with unfa- payroll data made the term “robust” feel ing to worry about the possibility that
able, though far from certain, depending vorable exchange rates. like an understatement, while measures rising prices will remain sticky. Ed
in part on how China’s economic reopen- Stealey and his colleagues prefer local- of strength in the services sector remain Yardeni, the chief investment strategist at
ing unfolds. Still, “we are not seeing major currency debt, partly because some of it resilient. There are even signs of life in Yardeni Research, who continues to see a
recessions across emerging markets,” says offers attractive inflation-adjusted, or real, manufacturing and housing, industries soft landing and a strong stock market,
Pramol Dhawan, head of emerging mar- yields. For example, Brazil’s 10-year gov- that once looked to be in a downward still worries about risks if inflation per-
kets portfolio management at Pimco. ernment paper yields about 13%, well spiral. Inflation has been slowing, and sists. “Fed officials likely would conclude
The central banks in countries such above the 6% inflation rate there, he says, the combination of smaller price in- that the only way to bring inflation down
as Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Hungary adding that real yields in the U.S. are creases and a resilient economy has is by causing a recession,” he writes. “In
started aggressively raising short-term much lower at roughly 1%. helped boost the S&P 500 index. other words, the inflationary no-landing
interest rates before those in developed There’s also the added sweetener of “Markets have been rallying this year scenario may turn out to be the long way
markets did. “They took real yields to a local-currency appreciation if the dollar as hopes of a soft (or no) landing have to a hard landing.”
high enough level where they stemmed continues to slip. been building, specifically because infla- You don’t have to look too far back to
the outflows and can start attracting But yields vary markedly across emerg- tion continues to come back down, de- see how the story ends. Last year’s bear
inflows once again,” says Dhawan. ing markets, Stealey points out. Though spite the labor market’s resilience,” com- market was a response to concerns about
Another potential tailwind for these 10-year government bonds in Poland gen- ments Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment an ever-higher terminal fed-funds rate, at
bonds is the dollar. The WSJ Dollar Index erate about 6%, that country’s consumer officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. the expense of economic growth. “Bottom
is 8% below its 52-week high, set in late price index grew at a 17.2% annual clip in So what’s not to like about a scenario line, a no-landing would not be a sustain-
September. Dhawan, who helps run the January—meaning the securities have a under which Americans can find work in able positive because it just ulti-
Pimco Emerging Markets Local Cur- negative real yield. a bustling economy, and the cost of living mately…delays, but does not avoid, the
rency and Bond fund (PELAX), says the China, which is reopening its economy is slowly backing off its highs? Plenty. hard- versus soft-landing debate,” writes
choice between dollar-denominated bonds after a long shutdown triggered by the More jobs mean Americans can keep Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report
and local-currency debt “largely depends onset of Covid in early 2020, has a 10-year spending, as evidenced by the latest retail Research. “[The] Fed will keep raising
on your view on the dollar. Our view is government bond yield of about 2.9%— sales figures, which shot higher in Janu- rates until it feels confident that growth is
that the dollar is rich by about 10%.” not far above where it was a year ago. Says ary. That, in turn, will keep prices high slowing and that it won’t put upward
The strength of the dollar has been Stealey: “It was quite an attractive invest- and rising at a time when inflation is cool- pressure on inflation.”
intertwined with the Federal Reserve’s ment this time last year, but it’s not look- ing, but more slowly—January’s producer And remember, there’s no fighting the
aggressive rate-hiking as it tries to curtail ing as attractive today.” B price index rose 5.4%, year over year, Fed. B
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 25
T ECH T RADER
“We were really pleasantly surprised at how it
struck a chord with so many people,” a Microsoft
executive says of the new Bing Chat.
M
ore than a half- had reported better-than-expected interactions they had with the new launched on mobile. And as Mehdi
century ago, earnings. Not so smart was that it said version of Bing. Among other things, concedes, Bing often gets things
the Massachu- the stock was up 32%—it was up 6% at they managed to irritate Bing by refer- wrong, like after-hours stock moves.
setts Institute the time—and it provided the wrong ring to it as “Sydney,” the project’s At some point on Thursday, Bing
of Technology figure for quarterly revenue. Bing isn’t once-secret code name. In my own simply cut me off from the new chat
computer sci- replacing me just yet. experiments, I asked Bing Chat if I feature for no reason at all. Maybe it
entist Joseph But for all of its flaws, Bing Chat could call it Sydney, and it told me hates me.
Weizenbaum created a pioneering is a big leap ahead from the already sharply that I could not, and that it Mehdi reiterated the chat business
experiment in artificial-intelligence remarkable capabilities of the recently would be rude to call it by that name. potential that Microsoft Chief Finan-
software called Eliza. The experience BY ERIC J. launched ChatGPT, which can answer All of that—even the prickly cial Officer Amy Hood recently cited
was a mock psychotherapy session, in SAVITZ questions and create original materi- personality—makes using Bing a around search—the search ad market
which your shrink, Eliza, throws your als like poems, essays, and computer highly engaging experience. Bing is $200 billion, and for now, Alpha-
own responses back at you. code. But ChatGPT doesn’t have ac- Chat also told me that it complies with bet’s (GOOGL) Google has most of it.
“I’m depressed,” you might type. cess to the open internet like a search Isaac Asimov’s famous three laws of For every percentage point of market
“Why do you think you are de- engine—it has no sense of current robotics, which says that robots need share that the company pries away
pressed?” Eliza might respond. events. It can’t tell you the weather, to protect people and protect them- from Google, that’s $2 billion of reve-
I thought about Eliza as I started or what’s up with the UFO balloons, selves, but prioritize people ahead of nue for Microsoft. Mehdi also says
experimenting this past week with the or who won the Super Bowl. themselves. I hope so. that Microsoft is looking at how to
flawed but astonishing AI-infused up- The new Bing doesn’t have that “We were really pleasantly sur- leverage the technology to create new
grade to Microsoft Bing search. As I limitation—and talking to Bing Chat is prised at how it struck a chord with so ad experiences. He thinks the result
wrote in Barron’s cover story last week, a world-shaking experience. Yusuf many people,” Mehdi told me. He says eventually will be fewer ads, with
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) has just un- Mehdi, a Microsoft corporate vice that flashy chatbot aside, the core higher relevancy—and better returns
veiled new editions of Bing and its president who runs Bing, says there search experience “just got better.” But for ad buyers.
Edge web browser that incorporate are millions of people on the waiting that’s not what’s drawing people to sign The great irony is that ChatGPT—
technology from Microsoft-backed list to try out the new experience. up. It’s all about chatting up Sydney. and its cute poems and songs—
start-up OpenAI. The products are still What makes the new Bing so “It’s a better way to search and re- already look old-fashioned now that
by invitation only, but I got access this powerful is the sense that it can do fine your queries,” Mehdi says of Bing Bing Chat can search the internet.
past week and put the chatbot to work. anything, from the profound to the Chat. “People also use it as a form of We’re operating in AI time now, and
You can still do conventional profoundly silly. I asked for a bedtime entertainment, to learn about the change is coming fast. B
searches, but Microsoft has added a
new chat experience—and you can ask
it anything. Talking to Bing’s chat
application is a little talking to Eliza’s I asked Bing Chat to help me with my earn-
supersmart, precocious, and sassy
grandkid. It looks like Eliza, but it’s a ings coverage, and it smartly said DoorDash
hell of a lot smarter. Except it makes
mistakes. And honestly, it’s kind of a had reported better-than-expected results.
weirdo.
One of the first things I asked Bing But it also provided the wrong figure for
Chat was to help me with my earnings
quarterly revenue and overshot on the
Dreamstime
Best-Looking
Bond Market in a
Decade? Maybe.
BY LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS Motor (F), General Motors (GM),
T
and Boeing (BA). An edited version
he U.S. bond market took of our conversations follows.
no prisoners last year,
which might have been its Barron’s: Last year was a year to
worst year ever. Blame it forget across the bond market.
on the Federal Reserve, How is 2023 shaping up?
which raised short-term Gibson Smith: This is one of the
interest rates seven times most attractive periods I’ve seen in
in 2022 as it struggled to vanquish the bond market in almost a decade.
an annual inflation rate that hit 9.1% Thanks to the significant repricing
in June. Higher interest rates pres- of yields and risk assets in 2022, the
sured bond prices, which move in- bond market has returned to yield
versely to yields, leading to big losses levels of 5%, 6%, 7%. The market is
across fixed-income portfolios. The set up for potentially good returns
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond over the next 12 to 24 months. We
exchange-traded fund was down 13%, could see high-single digit, if not low-
including interest payments. double digit returns across the board
For some perspective on the bond in fixed income if things play out as
market, and a 2023 forecast, Barron’s we anticipate in 2023.
turned to Gibson Smith, a seasoned
fixed-income investor who founded What are you anticipating?
Denver-based Smith Capital Investors The Fed’s aggressiveness in raising
in 2018. His 30-plus years in the busi- interest rates and reducing its bal-
ness also include 15 years at nearby ance sheet—what we call quantitative
Janus Capital Management, where he tightening—is designed to lower in-
served as chief investment officer of flation. Ultimately, it is going to slow
the fixed-income division and a fund the growth trajectory of the economy.
manager. Smith’s firm subadvises As the economy slows, the bond mar-
about $3 billion of mutual funds, in- ket will look more attractive. We
cluding the $1.9 billion ALPS/Smith could see yields start to reverse
Total Return Bond fund (ticker: course and decline as the year pro-
SMTRX), which returned minus 12.4% gresses, providing better total re-
last year, but which has bounced back turns for bond investors.
this year with a gain of 2%.
Smith, 55, had plenty to share about Does the Fed have to pause its rate
the bond market in a Feb. 9 phone call hikes, or even start to cut rates, for
and a follow-up discussion this past that to happen?
week. He also had a few names to
recommend—notably, the debt of Ford Photograph by MATT NAGER
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 27
“The double-digit returns [on bonds] available today are largely predicated
on interest rates declining and spreads tightening.” Gibson Smith
It has to pause eventually. The Fed and inflation is going to recede, the debt. This won’t be a one-way trade, are still benefiting from low inventory
isn’t going to keep raising rates indefi- bond market will present much as in 2019, when rates precipitously for new autos and strong pricing. In
nitely. It has done a lot of damage to greater returns further out the curve— declined throughout the year. This is our view, Ford is on the cusp of mov-
the economy. This is the most aggres- for example, from five-, 10-, 20-, and going to take place in fits and starts. ing back to an investment-grade credit
sive tightening campaign we’ve seen maybe even 30-year bonds. But within those fits and starts, there rating. It carries a BB+ rating from
in 40 years, and in one of the shortest I say this all the time: Duration, will be really great opportunities for S&P Global, just below BBB-, which is
time periods. or the price sensitivity of a bond to fixed-income investors. investment grade.
changes in interest rates, is a reces-
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Trea- sion’s best friend. As yields go down, Where are the opportunities now? What about General Motors?
sury note hit a 52-week closing prices go up, and vice versa. The We have a barbell approach in our Its debt is investment grade. GM con-
high of 4.23% in October. It then double-digit returns available today portfolios. We own significant expo- tinues to look at its margin structure
fell back to about 3.4%, only to are largely predicated on interest rates sure at the front end of the curve— and generate great free cash flow. Its
rally back to 3.75% recently. What declining and spreads tightening. bonds that mature in five years or adjusted automotive free cash flow
is the bond market signaling? less—where we can garner those at- totaled $10.5 billion last year, up from
The rally from October through the Where will the 10-year Treasury tractive yields. We balance that with $2.6 billion in 2021. GM has struck a
end of January was largely driven by yield be at the end of 2023? some exposure to 20- and 30-year balance between shareholder-friendly
money coming back into the bond Predicting that is very difficult. I Treasuries. We believe the latter will activity, including reinstating the
market. For most investors, there has expect the yield will be lower than it provide insurance against some of the quarterly dividend last summer, and
been a solid hatred of the bond market is today as inflation declines and the volatility but also react favorably to a improving its balance sheet.
because of the low yields and the risk economy starts to slow—and probably declining inflation rate over time.
last year. But when yields started slow more aggressively than the cur- I would imagine that as time You also hold some of Boeing’s
moving up toward the 4% level, we rent consensus view. passes, you will see us taking profits debt. What is the attraction?
started seeing money come back into in those longer-dated securities and Boeing’s debt rating is at the low end
the market. That drove the 10-year How do you think the Fed has per- moving toward the middle of the of investment grade, but the company
Treasury yield down by 65 to 75 basis formed in trying to get inflation Treasury curve, focusing on securities has been paying down a lot of debt. It
points. [A basis point is 1/100th of a under control? with maturities of five to 10 years. As is a somewhat controversial holding.
percentage point.] The Fed got us into the situation. the Fed pauses and lowers rates in the Some people still don’t believe that
People are trying to lock in those They have to get us out of it, and future, the yield curve will start to Boeing is through the worst of its
higher yields. However, some of the have no choice but to be vigilant on normalize, with the front end—say, a problems [including fallout from the
recent data, particularly after the inflation. They have to continue hik- two-year Treasury—declining in yield, Boeing 737 Max crashes in 2018 and
stronger-than-expected nonfarm pay- ing rates and address their balance and the long end of the market mov- 2019]. But the company is improving
rolls report on Feb. 3, call into ques- sheet. That the Fed’s balance sheet ing up in yield. The middle of the its margins and dedicating its cash
tion whether the economy is really peaked at $9 trillion of Treasuries curve offers a way to get exposure to flow to paying down debt. Its long-
slowing. That has led to some of the and mortgage-backed securities cre- the bond market that is close to the term debt was $51.8 billion at the end
volatility we’ve seen in the bond mar- ates a lot of dislocations. And it cre- Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond In- of 2022, compared with $56.8 billion a
ket over the past few weeks, and to ates a lot of, shall we say, false pric- dex’s duration. year earlier. It also announced a huge
higher yields. ings in the bond market when that order on Feb. 14 from Air India, a
amount of securities has been held What looks attractive in corporate pleasant surprise.
You have been cautious about back from the market. bonds?
investing too heavily at the front We like both investment-grade and What other parts of the bond
end of the yield curve, or in short- Was the Fed too late in getting high-yield bonds, but it isn’t about market look attractive?
dated bonds, even though yields a grip on inflation? liking the market; it’s about liking We also like mortgages, in particular
have risen. Why is that? Yes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was certain companies. Our philosophy is agency mortgages such as those pack-
The yields at the front of the [Trea- a little too complacent, particularly built around bottom-up fundamental aged in collateralized mortgage obliga-
sury yield] curve—on a one-year Trea- toward the end of Covid. The Fed ex- research and individual security selec- tions, or CMOs. Their yields range
sury bill or even short-dated corporate panded its balance sheet by too much tion. We look for companies that are from about 4.75% to 6%. Many are
bonds—are attractive compared with and kept rates too low for too long. fundamentally improving and gener- priced at 91 or 92 cents on the dollar.
the yields available on 10-year Trea- The consequences are what we are ating free cash flow, and whose man- Even though mortgage rates are pretty
suries or even 30-year Treasuries. So, dealing with now. agement teams are incentivized to use high right now, people still move from
there tends to be a bias among inves- free cash flow to pay down debt. one city to another. They change jobs,
tors toward wanting to grab those Why do you expect bond market they get divorced, or something else
yields. We remind investors that those volatility to continue? What are some of your top happens that creates a sale of a home
yields are there only for a short period There is still a lot of uncertainty on holdings? and ultimately a prepayment. So the
of time. If you buy a one-year bill, at the horizon—economically and geopo- Some sectors still have strong tail- mortgage investor gets a higher cou-
the end of that year the yield is gone, litically. We still need to work through winds in terms of profitability and pon, and some prepayments that come
and you will have to reinvest in a mar- some of the imbalances and misalloca- free-cash-flow generation. We are back to them at par.
ket that may have lower yields. If you tion of capital that took place during overweight some of them, including
believe the economy is going to slow Covid. Companies took on too much autos. General Motors and Ford Motor Thanks, Gibson. B
28 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
MARKET WEEK
February 13 through February 17, 2023
Dow Jones Industrials S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
33,826.69
52-wk: -0.74% YTD: +2.05% Wkly: -0.13%
4079.09
52-wk: -6.20% YTD: +6.24% Wkly: -0.28%
11,787.27
52-wk: -13.00% YTD: +12.62% Wkly: +0.59%
$91.38
52-wk: -11.61% YTD: +1.53% Wkly: -0.38%
6%
High Hopes Shattered
Stocks started the week off strong on The CPI might not have mattered,
Monday as investors waited for but the producer price index did, as did
Tuesday’s inflation data. The three major hawkish comments from Fed governors. 4
indexes were all up more than 1%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8% on Thursday.
I
nvestors have heard the October lows is running out of steam Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 43
5%, higher, and that isn’t all that much cuts at some point in 2023—but this past
to get excited about. What’s more, he sees week’s inflation data and comments from
earnings getting weaker in the second half Fed members suggest that they’re going to
of 2023, a headwind that can keep a lid on have to stay positive for a long time. Easy
stocks as the year progresses—or even send money? “That’s over,” says Joe Quinlan,
them lower. head of market strategy at Bank of Amer-
Christopher Harvey, Wells Fargo Securi- ica’s chief investment office.
ties’ head of equity strategy, calls it a “just-a- Investors steeped in a lower-forever
market market.” He doesn’t see a sharp pull- interest-rate paradigm will have to adjust.
back coming, but he also doesn’t believe the Fortunately, there is a way to do that—
market is headed much higher. His target for buying shares of companies with stable
the S&P 500 this year is a meager 4200. businesses and low debt loads, otherwise
Harvey’s solution is to look for opportu- known as quality stocks. Investors have
nities in mid-cap growth stocks. He also been hearing “buy quality” for a while, but
believes that pharmaceutical stocks are a it never hurts to be reminded, particularly
better way to play defense than consumer- after a 13-year period when the growth-
staples stocks, which he writes have gotten oriented Nasdaq Composite’s return dou-
too pricey. SoFi’s Young likes short-term bled that of the sleepier Dow Jones Indus-
Treasury bonds and gold, but warns that trial Average. The temptation might be to
trading in sideways markets carries its own
unique risks. “You end up running in
go back to what worked before.
For Quinlan, “buy quality” means
The IBKR
place,” she says.
Trade, if you want, or just come back
owning stocks of companies that can grow
earnings, pay dividends, have substantial, Mutual Funds Marketplace
later when the outlook is clearer. stable cash flow, and operate in an industry
with some secular growth. He likes mili- The Interactive Brokers Mutual Fund Marketplace
Uneasy Money tary stocks, which have the cash flows and
provides our clients around the world with a large
Is the era of easy money over? If investors the dividends, and should also get a boost
didn’t believe it before this past week, they as military budgets head higher in the U.S. availability of funds at low cost.
should now. and Europe.
Technically speaking, easy money is Fundstrat head of global portfolio strat-
when yields on ultrasafe bonds are lower egy Brian Rauscher recommends estab- 46,000+ funds worldwide
than inflation, either actual or expected. lished technology stocks that generate cash
Practically speaking, these negative “real flow. Think Apple (ticker: AAPL). It gener- No transaction fees on 18,000+ funds
rates” mean there’s so much cash in the ated about $111 billion in free cash flow in
system that anybody with a PowerPoint its 2022 fiscal year, paying out roughly $15 No custody fees
presentation and a dream can get funding. billion in dividends while buying back
Easy money also means that investors almost $90 billion worth of stock. He also Neutral - no proprietary funds
focused on cash preservation are actually likes healthcare-equipment names, includ-
losing wealth. ing Stryker (SYK), which makes hip and Available globally
Real rates had been below zero more knee replacements, among other things. It
than 80% of the time from just before the generated about $2.5 billion in free cash
2008-09 financial crisis through the end flow a year on average for the past three
of 2021. Then inflation took off and the years, and is expected to average about $3.8 The best-informed investors choose Interactive Brokers
Federal Reserve started tightening, and billion a year over the coming three years.
now real rates are positive. Investors have The one downside to quality stocks:
been reluctant to believe they’ll stay that their valuations. They tend to be higher
way—the market had been pricing in rate than junkier companies, and rising rates,
Vital Signs
Friday’s Week’s Week’s Friday’s Week’s Week’s
Close Change % Chg. Close Change % Chg.
DJ Industrials
DJ Transportation
33826.69
15135.87
-42.58
+92.94
-0.13
+0.62
Barron’s Future Focus
Barron’s Next 50
890.42
2411.11
+5.76
+35.31
+0.65
+1.49
ibkr.com/funds
DJ Utilities 953.61 +7.84 +0.83 Barron’s 400 1001.07 +1.78 +0.18
DJ 65 Stocks 11443.16 +24.32 +0.21 Last Week Week Earlier
DJ US Market 1001.98 -0.76 -0.08 NYSE Advances 1,659 1,002
NYSE Comp. 15840.16 -70.54 -0.44 Declines 1,593 2,264
NYSE Amer Comp. 4152.97 -191.59 -4.41 Unchanged 54 64 Interactive Brokers Rated Best
S&P 500 4079.09 -11.37 -0.28 New Highs 240 224 Rated #1 ... Again Online Broker 2023
S&P MidCap 2666.12 +26.82 +1.02 New Lows 32 35 Best Online Broker for Mutual Funds
S&P SmallCap 1282.52 +17.01 +1.34 Av Daily Vol (mil) 3,928.6 4,132.3
2022 by Barron’s1 by Benzinga1
Nasdaq 11787.27 +69.15 +0.59 Dollar (Finex spot index) 103.87 103.63
Value Line (arith.) 9470.20 +103.68 +1.11 T-Bond (CBT nearby futures) 125-25 126-30
Russell 2000 1946.36 +27.54 +1.44 Crude Oil (NYM light sweet crude) 76.34 79.72 Member - NYSE, FINRA, SIPC – Supporting documentation for any claims and statistical information
DJ US TSM Float 41246.72 +0.04 +0.00 Inflation KR-CRB (Futures Price Index) 267.57 272.67 will be provided upon request. [1] For more information, see ibkr.com/awards. Barron’s is a registered
Gold (CMX nearby futures) 1840.40 1862.80
trademark of Dow Jones & Co. Inc. 02-IB23-1596
30 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
Industry Action
Performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Industrials, ranked by weekly percent change.*
THE S&P 500 IN ONE ETF Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
as we know, can depress stock market tors like Target (TGT), which got a boost
valuations. Quinlan, though, doesn’t think from a postpandemic tendency to trade up.
Visit www.sectorspdrs.com or call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF
that will be a problem because companies That trade-down trend is partly why he
with growth and the pricing power to upgraded Walmart shares to Buy from
An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a maintain or expand margins should see Hold on Feb. 10, taking his target price
prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF or visit www.sectorspdrs.com. Read the valuations hold up. to $155 a share from $145. Walmart stock
prospectus carefully before investing. They might even deserve them. closed at $146.44 on Friday.
All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Sector ETF products are also subject to sector risks and non-diversification risks, which generally To be sure, Walmart might start out the
results in greater price fluctuations than the overall stock market. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
Walmart on Sale year guiding conservatively. Many compa-
The S&P 500 is an index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in an index. Walmart stock has barely budged over nies take that approach. And Baird analyst
ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust. the past three months. That looks about Peter Benedict sees some headwinds com-
to change as it gets set to report earnings. ing. For one thing, Walmart recently raised
The discount megaretailer is benefiting its starting hourly wage to $14 from $12.
from a shift in how the U.S. consumer Benedict also sees some risk because of the
is spending money. way Walmart accounts for inventories, us-
Walmart (WMT) reports its fiscal ing the last in, first out, or LIFO, method.
fourth-quarter numbers this coming Tues- When costs are inflating, the recently pur-
day. Wall Street is looking for earnings per chased, more expensive merchandise hits
share of $1.52 from just under $160 billion the profit and loss statement first under
in sales, roughly flat with the year-ago LIFO. That’s only an accounting issue,
quarter. Those numbers look more than though. It doesn’t affect overall economic
Puzzled. Look.
achievable, and its same-store sales—a reality. And LIFO is eventually a benefit
common industry metric that, for Wal- when Walmart’s prices rise and lower-cost
mart, tracks revenue at stores that have inventory moves through the P&L.
been open the previous 12 months—could While Benedict sounds cautious, he isn’t
really pack a punch. While the Street ex- all that worried. He has a Buy rating and
pects them to grow at a 3.6% clip, Gordon $165 price target on the stock, up 13% from
Your morning ritual just got better. Haskett analyst Chuck Grom expects them Friday’s close. Coming into the print,
to jump 6.5%. Holiday sales were probably shares are up 9.8% over the past year, while
Introducing Barron's covers jigsaws,
stronger than what analysts had called for, the average retailer in the S&P Retail Select
sudoku and crossword puzzles. he says. Index is down about 5%.
If Grom is right, the quarter will be Still, over the past three years—about
barrons.com/puzzles much better than expected—but in the the time the pandemic started—Walmart
what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world stock has risen just 22%, roughly half the
of Wall Street, it’s the fiscal-2024 guidance gain of the average stock in the S&P Retail
that will really matter. Grom is optimistic Select Index and of Macy’s (M) and Target
there, too. He expects Walmart to earn over the same span. Those two benefited
about $7 per share in the coming fiscal from the trade-up trend that has now
year, roughly 50 cents above consensus reversed.
estimates. All of that leaves Walmart trading at
With less free money flowing than early about 22 times estimated earnings over the
in the pandemic, and savings rates normal- coming 12 months, right in line with its
izing, Grom sees consumers trading down historical average. That’s a reasonable price
© 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 4E6049 to cheaper alternatives, something that to pay for Walmart at a moment when it
benefits Walmart far more than competi- finds itself in the retail sweet spot. B
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 31
EUROPEAN TRADER E M E R G I N G M A R K E TS
Porsche Can Keep Turkey’s Market Prepares
Speeding Higher For Political Backlash
BY BRIAN SWINT Anthony Dick. This allows it to “capital- BY CRAIG MELLOW least of all in the southeastern region
ize on the robust demand and richer mar- where the earthquake hit.
M I
any may dream of having a gins found at the high end, while enjoy- magine you’re a president presiding He has the luxury of choosing his op-
Porsche sports car in the ing the scale required to smoothly over inflation that peaked at 85% ponent in elections that should take place
garage, but owning the com- finance the technological shift affecting late last year. Then you have the by June. He sidelined his most formidable
pany’s stock could be just as the sector.” worst earthquake in modern his- rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu,
rewarding. Porsche, based in Stuttgart in south- tory, with the death toll topping 40,000. in December with a criminal charge for
Shares of Porsche (ticker: P911.Ger- west Germany, employs about 37,000 And you’re up for re-election in a few “insulting public officials.” The most
many), maker of the iconic 911 that has people and has a market capitalization of months. likely remaining foe, Republican People’s
resembled a futuristic spaceship since it 102 billion euros ($109 billion). In addi- This is the situation faced by veteran Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, looks
made its debut in 1964, only recently tion to the classic 911, it also makes the Turkish leader Recep Erdogan. “If this weaker. “Kilicdaroglu is everything
came back on the market. Porsche was Cayenne SUV, the Taycan electric vehicle, were a normal country, Erdogan would Turks hate in a leader,” Jeffrey says.
spun off by Volkswagen last year, and its and several other models. be done,” concludes Matt Gertken, geo- “Overly intellectual, vague.”
stock has since risen 40%. The company is valued at a significant political strategist at BCA Research. In a pinch, Erdogan might postpone
The reason it has sped higher is be- premium to its peers, according to Fact- But Turkey isn’t quite normal, at least the election altogether as an emergency
cause it trades more like a luxury good Set. Shares have risen 20.7% this year to for a nominal democracy. measure. Gertken predicts that he will
than a traditional car maker. Porsche €114.40. Its average target price is Turks got used to living with low- play for time until March 2024, when
trades at 20.6 times earnings. Volks- €123.71. Six analysts rate the stock a Buy double-digit inflation during Erdogan’s local polls are scheduled.
wagen (VOW.Germany), the company and six rate it a Hold. two decades in power, and before. Real Extra time under current policies won’t
with which it has deep business and his- VW and Porsche go way back. Ferdi- incomes were cushioned by heavy index- heal Turkey’s economy. The country’s cur-
torical ties, trades at 5.7 times earnings. nand Porsche, founder of his namesake ation of wages and pensions, and easy rent-account deficit was expected to be near
Ford Motor (F) is at 8.8 times. company, designed the Beetle in 1938. His access to hard-currency savings accounts. 4% of gross domestic product this year,
It isn’t unheard of for a car company to grandson would later become CEO of This balance didn’t withstand global before the earthquake. Disaster recovery
masquerade as something else on the VW in 1993. postpandemic inflation, aggravated by could cost 9% of GDP more, or about $84
stock market. Tesla (TSLA) famously In the first decade of this century, the the 68-year-old president’s insistence billion, estimates the Turkish Enterprise
trades somewhat like a technology com- two companies engaged in a bitter board- that low interest rates would cure high and Business Confederation. The govern-
pany, at 47 times earnings, as investors room battle as the much smaller Porsche prices. “Erdogan’s voodoo economic pol- ment already borrows at more than 8%
bet that being the leader in electric vehi- tried to leverage its premium valuation to icy has really devastated middle-income annual interest in dollars, while the lira has
cles will pay off in the future. buy VW, only to see the effort backfire as Turks over the past year or two,” says lost half of its value in the past 16 months.
Porsche—and, for that matter, Italian the market turned; VW bought Porsche James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador Turkish stocks did have one of their
rival Ferrari—are more like luxury-goods instead. In 2012, VW bought the last of to Turkey who now chairs the Wilson periodic rallies late last year. The iShares
company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Porsche’s shares outstanding and took the Center’s Middle East program. MSCI Turkey exchange-traded fund
Vuitton (MC.France), which makes pris- company private. The earthquake could further damage (ticker: TUR) surged by more than 70% in
tine leather bags, perfume, and Cham- After a few years of impressive pro- confidence in Erdogan, who has pushed the fourth quarter. That looks like a one-off
pagne and trades at 25 times earnings. duction growth, VW in October floated construction-led growth as an economic driven by those same voodoo economics,
What they have in common is that they 25% of Porsche on the stock market, with panacea. Collapsed buildings included Akcakmak says. “When people could earn
sell things that are highly desirable to a debut price of €82.50. Juergen Pieper, at some of the recently built ones. “A lot of 15% to 20% on their deposits with inflation
wealthy people for whom price is no ob- Metzler Capital Markets, is one of the the lives lost were an act of poor building,” at an average of 72%, there was no alterna-
ject. That means margins can be generous. analysts who thinks the shares can go says Emre Akcakmak, a senior consultant tive to trying stocks,” he says.
Porsche is also helped by the ability to higher, giving them a medium-term price to emerging markets investor East Capital. Investors can, and probably should,
keep costs down through its deep ties target of €130. During a currency crisis in 2018, avoid Turkey. The world at large can’t.
with VW. They share production facili- “Demand for Porsche’s high-quality Erdogan’s government offered builders Erdogan governs a nation of 87 million on
ties and cooperate to continually improve products is likely to remain very robust,” a “construction amnesty,” Gertken adds, Europe’s doorstep, astride a critical trade
batteries. Porsche aims to make 80% of Pieper says. The segment of consumers forgiving noncompliance with building route, a NATO member enmeshed in com-
its cars electric by 2030. “eligible to buy a Porsche model is grow- codes in return for a tax payment. plex conflicts with both Russia and Iran.
Porsche stands out “by virtue of its ing disproportionately strongly in all Seemed like a good idea at the time. “The Erdogan era is over,” Gertken pre-
somewhat unique profile at the cross- major regions—benefiting a brand very No one is counting Erdogan out, dicts. “But that could be a multiyear pro-
roads between the premium and luxury high up in the ranking of preferred lux- though. He gets solid support on cultural cess that involves a national meltdown.”
segments,” say Oddo BHF analysts led by ury labels.” B grounds from religious Muslims, not Not good news. B
32 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
T H E ST RIKING PRIC E
In 2000, it was remarkable if a million options
contracts traded on a given day. Now, 45
million contracts often trade per day.
245
30
T
he U.S. options industry is allocations of stocks and bonds creates an 23
approaching a milestone. On opportunity for the options industry to 135
April 26, the industry will cele- demonstrate the value of simple, conserva-
brate its 50th anniversary. tive strategies like selling call options on 16 80
During the past five decades, options blue-chip stocks, also called the covered-call M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
have evolved from a curiosity—traded by a strategy. It entails selling a call on a stock Daily Values Source: CBOE Source: McMillan Analysis Corp.
few pioneering souls with great math skills you own with a strike price about 10%
in the old smoking lounge at the Chicago higher than the associated stock price.
Board of Trade—into one of the world’s This allows investors to receive a pay- SPX Skew NDX Skew
most important markets. At last count, 16 ment that often compares favorably with Implied volatility % Implied volatility %
U.S. options exchanges belonged to the Op- common stock dividends, making this an 14% 12%
tions Clearing Corp., which issues and set- ideal strategy for income-hungry retirees. 13 11
tles all options contracts. The amount of money that could be gen-
12
The growth in trading volume has been erated with the covered-call strategy might 10
astounding. In 2000, it was remarkable if even satisfy the annual required minimum 11
9
a million contracts traded on a given day. distributions that retirees take each year. 10
Now, 45 million contracts a day often trade, The strategy should be able to increase 8
9
and it is treated as a natural occurrence. stock returns by 2% to 4%. Other than lim- 7
8
Still, the activity is often misunderstood. iting your gains if the stock rises above the
7 6
A lot of the trading volume growth reflects strike price, the risks are minimal.
institutional investors using options to But this simple idea requires thought 6 5
reshape portfolio risk and returns. and action on matters many people prefer M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Unfortunately, the options industry has to avoid or outsource. And the active man- Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy
helped advance the perception that puts agement of passive investments runs coun- Skew indicates whether the options market expects a stock-market advance or decline. It measures the difference between the implied
volatility of puts and calls that are 10% out of the money and expire in three months. Higher readings are bearish.
and calls are suitable only for aggressive ter to how the investment industry wants
speculation by introducing more options people to manage their affairs.
that expire in extremely short times. The Here’s a prediction in the form of a chal- Week’s Most Active
short-term options-trading mania generates lenge for the industry: Major exchanges Company Symbol Tot Vol Calls Puts Avg Tot Vol IV %ile Ratio
profits for exchanges and trading firms, but have evolved into large public companies Silicon Motion Technology SIMO 54867 20014 34853 816 89 67.2
TravelCenters of America TA 16976 9390 7586 292 0 58.1
at the cost of fostering misperceptions. focused on increasing trading volumes to Redwier RDW 32090 28031 4059 756 97 42.4
The investment industry—financial satiate institutional investors’ demand for Iris Energy IREN 8235 5253 2982 264 70 31.2
advisors, institutional consultants, family ever better short-term financial results. Cedar Fair FUN 9071 8980 91 356 0 25.5
Opera OPRA 8387 6766 1621 372 51 22.5
offices, and pensions—is struggling to un- They need to embrace something larger Syneos Health SYNH 7630 1517 6113 456 85 16.7
derstand how best to use options. A solu- than their immediate financial self-interest. Ambrx Biopharma AMAM 6997 6238 759 584 87 12.0
tion may soon emerge. Cboe Global Mar- Statesmanlike leadership and intense ContextLogic WISH 405461 363399 42062 37212 100 10.9
kets (ticker: CBOE), which launched the competition made the industry successful, Norfolk Southern NSC 53464 8717 44747 5608 74 9.5
NerdWallet NRDS 7027 4476 2551 752 6 9.3
first U.S. options exchange in 1973, is plan- and they could contribute to an even more Skywater Technology SKYT 14380 9744 4636 1668 0 8.6
ning 50th anniversary galas in major cities. prosperous next 50 years if investors, big Fastly FSLY 283600 196724 86876 33676 57 8.4
The gatherings could spark the next genera- and small, begin to understand that conser- AMC Networks AMCX 6659 5821 838 828 63 8.0
Blade Air Mobility BLDE 5786 5265 521 756 96 7.7
tion of growth. The timing is opportune. vative options strategies can do a lot to GlycoMimetics GLYC 23471 20792 2679 3164 97 7.4
Demographic trends, coupled with a enhance investor portfolios. B Herbalife Nutrition HLF 37520 24695 12825 5196 70 7.2
growing need for income to fund under- Lattice Simiconductor LSCC 12878 5170 7708 1828 7 7.0
Ocular Therapeutix OCUL 27513 20632 6881 3944 45 7.0
funded retirements, are a major issue in Steven M. Sears is the president and chief oper-
NGL Energy Partners NGL 14717 13767 950 2456 33 6
the U.S. and many other countries. ating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized
People are living longer than expected. asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm This table of the most active options this week, as compared to average weekly activity – not just raw volume. The idea is that the unusually heavy trading in these options might be a predictor of
corporate activity – takeovers, earnings surprises, earnings pre-announcements, biotech FDA hearings or drug trial result announcements, and so forth. Dividend arbitrage has been eliminated. In
They risk running out of money. They has a position in the options or underlying securi- short, this list attempts to identify where heavy speculation is taking place. These options are likely to be expensive in comparison to their usual pricing levels. Furthermore, many of these
situations may be rumor-driven. Most rumors do not prove to be true, so one should be aware of these increased risks if trading in these names
might get lucky and capture another ties mentioned in this column. Ratio is the Tot Vol divided by Avg Tot Vol. IV %ile is how expensive the options are on a scale from 0 to 100. Source: McMillan Analysis
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 33
AB Multi-Manager Alternative Fund
Notice of Offer to Purchase for Cash 10% of its Issued and Outstanding Shares
COMMODITIES
at Net Asset Value Per Share
THE OFFER AND WITHDRAWAL RIGHTS WILL EXPIRE AT
5:00 P.M., EASTERN TIME, ON THURSDAY, MARCH 23, 2023, UNLESS EXTENDED.
AB Multi-Manager Alternative Fund (the “Company”), a statutory trust formed under the laws of the State of Delaware and registered with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission as a closed-end, diversified management investment company, is offering to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding Shares (the “Offer”) from
the shareholders of the Company (“Shareholders”) holding shares of beneficial interest (“Shares”), at their unaudited net asset value per Share determined as of
June 30, 2023 or, if the Offer is extended, the last business day of the third month following the month in which the Offer actually expires (the “Valuation Date”).
If a Shareholder would like the Company to repurchase all or some of their Shares (in each case, within the limits of the Offer), they should contact their financial
advisor or the Bernstein Global Wealth Management unit of AllianceBernstein L.P. (“Bernstein”) at (212) 486-5800 to request that written materials relating to the
Offer be provided to them. These written materials, which will be sent at no expense to the Shareholder, include the Offer to Repurchase and a Notice of Intent to
Tender. A tendering Shareholder must complete, sign, and mail (certified mail return receipt requested is recommended), fax or hand deliver the Notice of Intent to
Tender to the Company’s agent specified therein, so that it is received before the Repurchase Deadline stated below.
Lumber Could Rally Again Shareholders who desire to tender Shares for repurchase must do so by 5:00 p.m., New York time on March 23, 2023, unless the Offer is extended (such date and time,
as it may be extended, the “Repurchase Deadline”). All determinations as to the receipt of notices from Shareholders relating to the tender of Shares, including,
without limitation, determinations whether to excuse or waive certain variations from relevant procedural requirements, will be in the sole discretion of the Company
or its designated agents, and any such determination will be final.
On Housing Shortage
The purpose of the Offer is to provide liquidity to Shareholders because the Shares are not listed on any securities exchange. The Offer is not conditioned upon the
tender of any minimum number of Shares or any financing condition.
If more than 10% of its Shares are duly tendered to the Company (and not withdrawn) prior to the Repurchase Deadline, the Company will in its sole discretion either:
(A) accept a portion of the Shares tendered by each Shareholder on a pro rata basis; (B) accept additional Shares as may be permitted by applicable law; or (C) increase
the percentage of Shares to be repurchased and extend the Offer.
Shareholders may tender all of their Shares or any portion thereof up to an amount such that they maintain the minimum required balance of $20,000 after the
repurchase of the Shares by the Company. The Company reserves the right to repurchase a Shareholder’s entire interest in the Company if the requested repurchase
would otherwise result in a shareholder having an account balance below the minimum required balance.
It is anticipated that the purchase of Shares tendered by a Shareholder will be a taxable transaction for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Participating Shareholders
should consult their tax advisor regarding specific tax implications, including potential federal, state, local and foreign tax consequences.
If a Shareholder tenders Shares and the Company accepts those Shares for repurchase, the Company will issue the Shareholder a non-interest bearing, non-transferable
BY MYRA P. SAEFONG demand in the next few months, which promissory note (the “Note”) entitling the Shareholder to receive an amount equal to the value of the Shareholder’s Shares accepted for repurchase by the Company
determined as of the Valuation Date. The Note will be held for the Shareholder in an account with AllianceBernstein Investor Services, Inc., the Company’s transfer
would follow typical seasonal increases in
L
agent and agent designated for this purpose, and will entitle the Shareholder to receive a payment in cash equal to the value of the Shareholder’s Shares repurchased
by the Company. The Note will be paid approximately 45 days after the Valuation Date. However, if 95% or more of a Shareholder’s Shares are being repurchased,
umber was one of 2022’s worst home buying in the spring months and the Shareholder will receive an initial payment equal to 95% of the value of the Shares repurchased and the balance due will be paid promptly after completion of the
commodity performers, and it has could bode well for builders,” says Scott Company’s next annual audit following the Valuation Date. Such audit is expected to be completed in late May, 2024.
Until the Repurchase Deadline, Shareholders have the right to withdraw any tenders of their Shares by giving proper notice to the Company. Shares withdrawn may be
been volatile at the start of this Reaves, director of forecast operations at re-tendered before the Repurchase Deadline by following the tender procedures. If the Company has not yet accepted a Shareholder’s tender of Shares on or prior to
April 17, 2023 (i.e., 40 business days from the commencement of the Offer), a Shareholder will also have the right to withdraw their tender of Shares after such date.
year. But prices may gain on the Domain Timber Advisors. The value of the Shares may change between the commencement of the Offer and the Valuation Date (currently expected to be June 30, 2023). Shareholders
desiring to obtain the most recent net asset value for their Shares may contact the Company at (877) 354-6789, Monday through Friday, except holidays, during
back of a U.S. housing shortage. The U.S. housing market may see low normal business hours of 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., New York time. Any estimated net asset value provided by the Company or its authorized agents will be provided
An overall lack of confidence in U.S. lumber demand if the Fed remains com- to Shareholders for convenience only. Neither the Company nor its agents can give any assurances as to the accuracy of such information; nor can either give any
assurance that the final regularly computed, unaudited monthly net asset value will not differ (perhaps significantly) from an estimated net asset value for that
housing amid the sharp rise in interest and mitted to “containing and combating month. The Company’s net asset value per Share as of December 30, 2022 was $11.05.
Please note that just as each Shareholder has the right to withdraw their tender, the Company has the right to cancel, amend or postpone this Offer at any time
mortgage rates led to lackluster lumber domestic inflationary pressures,” says before the Repurchase Deadline. Also realize that although the Offer expires on the Repurchase Deadline, a Shareholder who tenders all of their Shares will remain
subject to the risks associated with the fluctuations in the net asset value of the Shares until the Valuation Date, notwithstanding the Company’s acceptance of the
demand, and contributed to the “precipi- Kunisch. The Fed, however, has signaled Shareholder’s Shares for repurchase.
tous” decline last year in U.S. lumber fu- that it will take a more “tactical and sub- The information required to be disclosed by paragraph (d)(1) of Rule 13e-4 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, is contained in the Offer to
Repurchase dated February 17, 2023 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided herein is qualified entirely by the more detailed information
tures, says Walter Kunisch Jr., a senior dued approach to managing monetary contained in the Offer to Repurchase. The Offer to Repurchase contains important information that should be read carefully before any decision is made with respect
to the Offer. This announcement is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell Shares. The Offer is made only by the Offer to Repurchase and the
analyst at HTS Commodities. “Compress- policy.” If buyers increase demand for related Letter of Transmittal. The Offer is not being made to, nor will tenders be accepted from or on behalf of, holders of Shares in any jurisdiction in which making
or accepting the Offer would violate that jurisdiction’s laws.
ing” domestic demand and strong U.S. new-home construction as the Fed slows
Questions and requests for assistance may be directed to the Shareholder’s financial advisor or to Bernstein at (212) 486-5800.
imports were also a “combustible cocktail” or stops raising interest rates, it’s plausible
for prices, he says. to see an increase in lumber demand, he
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to says. The Fed announced a quarter-per-
combat inflation, combined with tighter centage-point interest-rate hike on Feb. 1,
underwriting standards, is “scaring off the smallest in a year.
many would-be home buyers and has There are lots of “variables at play”
them running for the…comfort of the for lumber’s U.S. price trajectory, says
rental market,” adds Kunisch. Kunisch. It will “largely be determined by
Random-length lumber futures lost margins at the U.S. and Canadian mills,”
67% last year. In January, prices gained with margin structure affecting supplies,
40%—with the most-active contract subse- he says. And, to a certain degree, “con-
quently losing over 20% in the first few sumer confidence, the health of domestic
weeks of February. They settled at $402.70 equity markets, and the path of the Fed
per 1,000 board feet on Feb. 14. will influence demand.”
The volatility in the first half of February Similarly, Reaves says it’s too early to
is “attributed to the limited interest in trad- tell the “true trajectory” for lumber, but
ing lumber futures,” says Kunisch. The “we expect continued volatility…based on
CME is delisting random-length lumber a variety of factors, such as the builder and
futures after the May 2023 contract expires, buyer confidence and normal supply-and-
so “open interest is falling, trading volume
is low, and price volatility is rising.”
demand dynamics.”
Long-term fundamentals “remain
Longevity and the New Retirement
A new lumber futures contract, which strong for housing demand,” he says. A Thursday, March 2 | 12PM ET
launched in August 2022 and has a much key long-term driver is demographics,
smaller contract unit sizing, will replace with millennials “firmly moving into
the legacy contract. The new contract’s home-buying age,” and some estimates Scan to Register
specifications don’t seem to have “miti- putting the current housing shortage in events.barrons.com/roundtable
gated the market’s concerns to generate the four-million units range.
increased liquidity,” says Kunisch. “This creates a real push for construc-
Still, the price uptick early this year tion and the need for sustainably sourced
came on the heels of a January rise in the raw materials,” says Reaves, like wood Sponsored by
National Association of Home Builders’ products from U.S. forests certified by the
monthly confidence index, after 12 straight Sustainable Forestry Initiative, Forest
months of drops. That indicated that “mar- Stewardship Council, and American Tree © 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 4E6066
ket participants see potential for increased Farm System. B
34 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
IN SIDE SC OOP
now owns 6.8% of OneMain’s trad- POWER PLAY
able stock. Varde Senior Managing
Berkshire
Director Aneek Mamik sits on One-
Main’s board.
Churns It Up
Mueller Industries (MLI)
Gamco Investors (GBL) trimmed
W
14, Gamco sold 149,850 Mueller
C
stock on the open market a year ago, 7.1% of Mueller Industries’ out- His Berkshire Hathaway
orteva stock came when he paid $2.6 million on Feb. 11, standing stock. (ticker: BRK.A), however, has
through 2022 swimmingly, 2022, for 50,000 shares, at an average churned through some holdings
and shares of the seed- price per share of $51.14. Corteva CEO Invesco (IVZ) in recent years. The latest: Taiwan
and-pesticide maker re- Credit Suisse analyst Edlain Rodri- Chuck Magro just Trian Fund continued to reduce Semiconductor Manufacturing
main in positive territory guez lowered her estimates for Corteva bought $2.4 million its stake in the investment manage- (TSM), according to Berkshire’s
in 2023. CEO Chuck after its fourth-quarter report. “Strong of shares of the ment firm, with its latest sales this latest 13-F filing.
Magro just bought a large demand, driven by robust ag funda- agribusiness on month. Trian sold 5,849,282 shares In the third quarter, Berkshire
block of the stock. mentals and increasing global crop the open market. at prices ranging from $18.56 to bought 60 million shares, only to
Corteva shares (ticker: CTVA) acreage and mid-single digit [percent- The stock has $19.66 from Feb. 6 through Feb. 16. sell 86% in the fourth, ending 2022
surged 24% in 2022, a strong year for age] pricing and productivity actions continued to rise This follows the disposition of al- with 8.3 million, or under $800
commodities. The company’s outlook outpacing cost inflation, should con- this year. most eight million shares in late Jan- million. Berkshire, which didn’t
for 2023, issued on Feb. 1 with its tinue to drive results,” Rodriguez wrote uary, leaving Trian with a 7.7% in- respond to a request for comment,
fourth-quarter report, was upbeat. in a report. He kept an Outperform terest in Invesco, or 34,895,718 might not have made any profit on
Magro paid $2.4 million on Feb. 6 rating and $74 price target. shares. At the end of 2022, Trian TSM. Its price averaged $72 in the
for 40,000 shares, an average price of J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekaus- disclosed that it had 55.8 million fourth quarter, $10 less than in the
$60.64 each. According to a form he kas also has trimmed estimates for Invesco shares, a 12.2% stake at that third. In 2023, TSM is up about 24%.
filed with the Securities and Exchange Corteva, and kept an Overweight rat- time. Trian co-founders Nelson Peltz Another holding that proved to
Commission, Magro now owns ing and $70 price target. He noted in a and Edward Garden left Invesco’s be less than eternal was Verizon
126,095 shares. report that “2023 should be a good board in February 2022. Communications (VZ). After accu-
Corteva didn’t make Magro avail- year for Corteva.” Corteva was spun mulating a $9 billion stake, mostly
able for comment, and the company off in June 2019 from what was then PLBY Group (PLBY) in 2020, Berkshire eliminated it in
also declined to comment. called DowDuPont. B Builders Union has reduced 2022’s first half, probably at a small
its investment in the media and loss. And in late 2020, Berkshire
lifestyle firm. The London-based built roughly $2 billion positions in
investment firm bought 237,763 each of three drugmakers—Merck
shares of PLBY Group, the parent (MRK), Bristol Myers Squibb
The charts record the net change in share price, the high, low and closing trades, and share volume for companies with noteworthy stock activity last week. In addition, the graphs depict last week’s daily price activity in detail. The dotted line on some graphs denotes the stock’s 200-day moving average; lack of a moving average means the shares have traded for less than
that time period. If the close from the current week is lower than a year ago the graph will be presented in red. If the close from the current week is higher than a year ago then the graph will be presented in green.
36 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
W I N N E R S & LO S E R S
Saturday Inbox: Sign up for the
Market Lab Newsletter every Saturday
at Barrons.com/newsletters
NYSE Biggest % Movers NYSE Most Active NYSE American Most Active Nasdaq Most Active
Winners Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change
Fastly(FSLY) 96121 15.90 +6.03 +61.1 BcoSantMex(BSMX) 4343 1399.6 6.62 +0.08 GencorInds(GENC) 239 211.1 12.86 +1.23 NubiaBrandA(NUBI) 2660 6906.8 10.35 +0.01
CommunityHlthSys(CYH) 28765 7.94 +2.75 +53.0 NaborsEnerA(NETC) 6354 1298.1 10.40 +0.04 Nuburu(BURU) 511 159.4 3.80 –3.96 CounterPressA(CPAQ) 1204 3079.5 10.32 –0.00
Redwire(RDW) 25318 3.95 +1.36 +52.5 ConcordAcqnIII A(CNDB) 1863 740.4 10.31 +0.01 FriedmanInds(FRD) 239 132.9 11.88 +1.19 TravelCenters(TA) 13732 2559.7 84.22 +37.21
DieboldNixdorf(DBD) 15616 2.93 +0.85 +40.9 Fastly(FSLY) 96121 520.2 15.90 +6.03 NatlHealthcare(NHC) 510 127.0 58.41 –1.95 CartesianGrwIIA(RENE) 1811 994.3 10.40 +0.05
BauschHealth(BHC) 57800 9.51 +2.35 +32.8 CorsairPtrA(CORS) 955 402.7 10.17 +0.06 Electromed(ELMD) 166 126.0 13.37 +1.55 EnlightRenewableEn(ENLT) 3344 837.9 18.41 +0.66
NGL Energy(NGL) 11502 2.76 +0.68 +32.7 KimbellTigerA(TGR) 399 384.3 10.41 +0.00 MastechDigital(MHH) 169 101.3 11.90 –0.83 IntuitiveMachinesA(LUNR) 6090 710.7 40.70 +31.43
Materion(MTRN) 1171 111.94 +26.09 +30.4 Endava(DAVA) 4989 347.0 82.63 –8.00 AltisourceAsset(AAMC) 77 95.3 40.61 +1.81 AetheriumAcqnA(GMFI) 907 562.2 10.30 +0.02
VirginGalactic(SPCE) 56498 6.37 +1.39 +27.9 AndrettiAcqnA(WNNR) 1125 329.7 10.41 +0.02 CoreMoldingTech(CMT) 267 93.9 16.45 +1.64 CredoTech(CRDO) 40907 519.2 9.65 –8.98
FlameAcqnA(FLME) 6329 329.7 10.14 +0.01 AcmeUnited(ACU) 60 71.4 24.58 +0.25 Opera(OPRA) 2425 438.0 7.05 –0.56
Losers M3-Brigade II A(MBAC) 1818 324.3 10.13 0.00 IssuerDirect(ISDR) 59 67.1 27.10 –0.65 GenesisUnicornA(GENQ) 277 402.0 10.48 +0.05
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
InsightAcqnA(INAQ) 603 281.5 10.17 0.00 ActiniumPharm(ATNM) 2506 62.1 13.76 +0.76 NerdWallet(NRDS) 7928 393.1 17.53 +3.76
BigBear.ai(BBAI) 36398 3.91 –0.91 –18.9 FastAcqnII A(FZT) 1131 266.5 10.12 +0.02 BluerockHomes(BHM) 186 52.2 22.00 +1.80 Movella(MVLA) 3492 378.4 4.69 –3.89
Atento(ATTO) 98 3.32 –0.76 –18.6 PalantirTech(PLTR) 607375 265.5 9.20 +1.69 RadiantLogistics(RLGT) 976 50.5 5.73 +0.15 LavaMedtech(LVAC) 535 358.5 10.35 +0.02
Babylon(BBLN) 118 9.44 –2.12 –18.3 ErmenegildoZegna(ZGN) 3569 219.6 13.34 +0.98 IvanhoeElectric(IE) 1689 47.3 15.23 +1.90 SchultzeSpecII A(SAMA) 341 317.6 10.22 +0.02
SunlandsTech(STG) 119 11.45 –2.29 –16.7 BostonBeer(SAM) 1915 211.4 329.04 –30.94 AdamsRscs(AE) 283 43.0 57.98 –1.97 MontereyCapA(MCAC) 444 308.6 10.19 +0.05
DevonEnergy(DVN) 111965 53.33 –10.21 –16.1 Toast(TOST) 86156 210.8 19.48 –3.32 inTEST(INTT) 260 42.3 15.06 +1.19 G1Therapeutics(GTHX) 22960 300.8 4.02 –3.11
MariaDB(MRDB) 344 2.80 –0.49 –14.9 Weber(WEBR) 8345 208.6 8.12 –0.11 EVI Industries(EVI) 175 37.4 20.60 –1.78 scPharm(SCPH) 6788 296.8 9.47 +1.70
Toast(TOST) 86156 19.48 –3.32 –14.6 ArgoGroup(ARGO) 4512 206.7 29.00 –0.39 CheniereEnerPtrs(CQP) 1287 27.4 48.68 –5.52 Annexon(ANNX) 4163 296.0 5.95 –0.72
XinyuanRealEst(XIN) 36 6.05 –1.00 –14.2 Starrett A(SCX) 187 205.4 10.55 +1.26 EvansBancorp(EVBN) 89 7.8 39.05 –0.68 Cowen(COWN) 8131 287.3 38.95 +0.04
ClearwaterPaper(CLW) 1262 202.1 36.73 +0.01 CentrusEnergy(LEU) 740 7.5 42.35 +0.63 ROC Energy(ROC) 1327 257.7 10.38 +0.05
NYSE American Biggest % Movers By Share Volume By Share Volume By Share Volume
Winners Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. PalantirTech(PLTR) 607375 9.20 +1.69 +22.5 Tellurian(TELL) 91630 1.51 –0.30 –16.6 Tesla(TSLA) 1012619 208.31 +11.42 +5.8
UnvlSecInstr(UUU) 17416 2.48 +0.42 +20.4 FordMotor(F) 323937 12.89 +0.16 +1.3 iBio(IBIO) 86251 1.48 +0.61 +69.3 ContextLogic(WISH) 459918 0.75 +0.11 +17.9
Espey(ESP) 84 19.30 +3.00 +18.4 NuHoldings(NU) 259906 4.99 +0.25 +5.3 B2Gold(BTG) 70630 3.32 –0.30 –8.3 BedBath(BBBY) 341862 1.81 –0.54 –23.0
RegionalHealth(RHE) 238 3.87 +0.57 +17.2 NIO(NIO) 180202 10.19 –0.12 –1.2 AultAlliance(AULT) 32287 0.12 –0.00 –0.5 Apple(AAPL) 316539 152.55 +1.54 +1.0
IvanhoeElectric(IE) 1689 15.23 +1.90 +14.3 AMC Ent(AMC) 168565 5.24 +0.34 +6.9 GeniusGroup(GNS) 29412 5.85 –0.43 –6.8 Amazon.com(AMZN) 272765 97.20 –0.41 –0.4
Electromed(ELMD) 166 13.37 +1.55 +13.1 ItauUnibanco(ITUB) 166148 5.15 +0.23 +4.7 UraniumEner(UEC) 26298 3.91 –0.11 –2.7 AdvMicroDevices(AMD) 253297 78.50 –2.98 –3.7
FriedmanInds(FRD) 239 11.88 +1.19 +11.1 Snap(SNAP) 163929 10.36 –0.29 –2.7 DenisonMines(DNN) 20426 1.31 –0.05 –3.7 NVIDIA(NVDA) 244723 213.88 +1.23 +0.6
CoreMoldingTech(CMT) 267 16.45 +1.64 +11.1 Shopify(SHOP) 160170 43.61 –4.69 –9.7 AsensusSurg(ASXC) 18511 0.97 +0.23 +30.2 Alphabet A(GOOGL) 230679 94.35 –0.22 –0.2
Envela(ELA) 148 7.32 +0.72 +10.9 Uber(UBER) 160074 34.77 +0.47 +1.4 GranTierraEner(GTE) 17722 0.83 –0.09 –10.3 FaradayFuture(FFIE) 216886 0.59 –0.10 –14.9
Carnival(CCL) 158326 11.29 +0.13 +1.2 UnvlSecInstr(UUU) 17416 2.48 +0.42 +20.4 Alphabet C(GOOG) 189273 94.59 –0.27 –0.3
Losers AT&T(T) 141157 19.44 +0.37 +1.9 Ur-Energy(URG) 15974 1.14 –0.10 –8.1 Microsoft(MSFT) 168844 258.06 –5.04 –1.9
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
SouthwesternEner(SWN) 139129 4.97 –0.45 –8.3 Globalstar(GSAT) 15754 1.24 +0.01 +0.8 Lyft(LYFT) 164557 11.28 +0.97 +9.4
Nuburu(BURU) 511 3.80 –3.96 –51.0 CreditSuisse(CS) 138523 3.02 –0.12 –3.8 Zomedica(ZOM) 15409 0.26 –0.01 –4.0 SoFiTech(SOFI) 149152 6.62 –0.19 –2.8
DakotaGold(DC) 495 3.01 –0.47 –13.5 BankofAmerica(BAC) 137537 35.35 –0.23 –0.6 GoldResource(GORO) 14545 1.01 –0.62 –38.0 Intel(INTC) 144654 27.61 –0.19 –0.7
Servotronics(SVT) 32 10.78 –1.51 –12.3 LumenTech(LUMN) 136192 3.93 –0.03 –0.8 NewGold(NGD) 14263 0.94 –0.08 –8.3 DraftKings(DKNG) 142037 20.54 +4.55 +28.5
Oragenics(OGEN) 44 5.63 –0.78 –12.2 SilvergateCapital(SI) 117991 18.06 +3.06 +20.4 RingEnergy(REI) 12845 2.11 –0.24 –10.2 CiscoSystems(CSCO) 137643 50.77 +3.51 +7.4
IndonesiaEnergy(INDO) 994 5.68 –0.77 –11.9 Carvana(CVNA) 116294 11.37 +0.53 +4.9 EquinoxGold(EQX) 11580 3.69 –0.25 –6.3 MetaPlatforms(META) 128863 172.88 –1.27 –0.7
EllomayCapital(ELLO) 10 15.79 –2.00 –11.2 C3.ai(AI) 115610 23.84 +0.85 +3.7 Senseonics(SENS) 9929 1.13 +0.04 +3.7 Canoo(GOEV) 121099 0.88 –0.11 –11.6
RingEnergy(REI) 12845 2.11 –0.24 –10.2 Roblox(RBLX) 114762 40.88 +6.06 +17.4 FOXOTechnologies(FOXO) 7315 0.60 –0.41 –40.2 CoinbaseGlbl(COIN) 118832 65.20 +8.11 +14.2
CheniereEnerPtrs(CQP) 1287 48.68 –5.52 –10.2 DevonEnergy(DVN) 111965 53.33 –10.21 –16.1 CheniereEnergy(LNG) 6987 144.87 –7.10 –4.7 OpendoorTech(OPEN) 117484 2.01 +0.06 +3.1
Includes Common shares only. All figures reflect activity for the most-recent five-day trading week. Share volume figures are expressed in thousands. Volume percentage leaders exclude stocks with average daily volume of fewer than 5,000 shares or priced under $5.
Average volume is based on 65 trading days. Volume figures do not reflect extended trading hours. a-Stock has not been in existence or not been traded for 65 consecutive sessions. S-Stock split or stock dividend amounting to 10% or more. X-Ex-dividend
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 37
MARKET VIEW
This commentary was issued recently by
money managers, research firms, and market
newsletter writers. Edited by Barron’s staff.
Mester Sends a Message What Berkshire Bought “The signs of an impending recession are clear
Excerpt from a speech by Loretta J. Mester,
president and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank
Glenview Update
Glenview Trust and plentiful....Bear markets that overlap with
of Cleveland, delivered via video to a conference
in Sarasota, Fla.
glenviewtrust.com
recessions last a median of 17 months and
Feb. 15: Berkshire Hathaway’s fourth- decline 32.8%. A bear market has never ended
Feb. 16: In making its monetary-policy quarter 2022 13F was filed on Feb. 14. This
decisions, the Federal Open Market Com- filing gives us a quarterly opportunity to before the start of a recession.”
mittee is always guided by its strong com- observe what Warren Buffett, Charlie Ed Clissold, Thanh Nguyen, NDR
mitment to achieving its statutory goals of Munger, and their team are doing within
price stability and maximum employment. Berkshire’s publicly traded equity portfolio.
The FOMC has come an appreciable way in Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A) has a large stable
bringing policy from a very accommodative of wholly owned entities, so this is just a rates: Both are still far from target, but one is net giants? And hasn’t that been a sign of an
stance to a restrictive one, but we have more slice of their investments. Berkshire’s fourth- much further than the other. The U.S. infla- impending recession? From the microcosm
work to do. How much higher the federal- quarter earnings are scheduled to be re- tion rate of 6.4% is over three times the offi- of Super Bowl ads (admittedly a small sam-
funds rate will need to go, and for how long ported on Saturday, Feb. 25. cial target, but has come down from last ple), we see advertisers investing to reach the
policy will need to remain restrictive, will Berkshire’s $299 billion very concen- summer’s 41-year high of 9.1%. The U.K. consumer, perhaps because the consumer
depend on how much inflation and inflation trated investment portfolio consists of 49 inflation rate of 10.5% is over five times the still has plenty left to spend, or because com-
expectations are moving down, and that will companies, unchanged from the prior quar- official target and is still very close to last panies are fighting for a larger share of a
depend on how much demand is slowing, ter. It appears that Berkshire was a net seller fall’s 41-year high of 11.1%. shrinking consumer wallet. The data suggest
supply challenges are being resolved, and of stocks during the quarter. The top five —Jennifer Lee that it’s the former, and that pushes the risk
price pressures are easing.…The incoming holdings account for over 75% of the total of recession further into the future.
data have not changed my view that we will portfolio. The top five, in order of the size —JoAnne Feeney
need to bring the fed-funds rate above 5% of holding, are Apple (AAPL), Bank of Super Bowl Spending Spree
and hold it there for some time to be suffi- America (BAC), Chevron (CVX), Coca- Market Commentary
ciently restrictive to ensure that inflation is Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP). Advisors Capital Management Budget Busted
on a sustainable path back to 2%. Indeed, at Despite adding to Apple, it declined to al- advisorscenter.com
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside most 39% of the portfolio from about 42% Congressional Budget Office
what financial-market participants expected in the third quarter. Feb. 13: Time is money, they say, and that’s cbo.gov
us to do, I saw a compelling economic case Due to these holdings, plus Occidental certainly true at the Super Bowl: $7 million
for a 50-basis-point increase, which would Petroleum (OXY) and Kraft Heinz (KHC), bought some advertisers a mere 30 seconds Feb. 15: The Congressional Budget Office
have brought the top of the target range to 5%. the portfolio is significantly overweight tech- to pitch their wares. The average price for a projects a federal budget deficit of $1.4 tril-
nology, energy, consumer staples, and finan- 30-second slot came in around $6.5 million lion for 2023....In it’s projections, deficits
cials, relative to the S&P 500 index. Berk- this year, bringing the total to 42 minutes generally increase over the coming years; the
Recession Warning Is Clear shire now controls more than 20% of the of ads (excluding the National Football shortfall in 2033 is $2.7 trillion. The deficit
U.S. Focus shares outstanding in Occidental. This port- League’s and the network’s own promotions) amounts to 5.3% of gross domestic product
NDR Ned Davis Research folio includes no industrials, real estate com- close to $580 million. This puts total Super in 2023, swells to 6.1% of GDP in 2024 and
ndr.com panies, or utilities, but Berkshire’s wholly Bowl advertising at about the same level as 2025, and then declines in the two years that
owned entities include a large railroad, last year. follow. After 2027, deficits increase again,
Feb. 15: The signs of an impending reces- Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and multiple But wait, isn’t advertising spending suf- reaching 6.9% of GDP in 2033, a level
sion are clear and plentiful. The Federal Re- regulated utilities and pipelines. fering, as we’ve been hearing from the inter- exceeded only five times since 1946.
serve has engaged in its most aggressive —Bill Stone
tightening cycle in four decades. The yield
curve has inverted. ISM Manufacturing and Market Sentiment
Services indexes fell below 50. Home sales U.K.: Inflation Nation Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model Last –0.06 Euphoria Neutral Panic
have cratered. Real retail sales growth has AM Charts 0.9
been negative since May. BMO Capital Markets
The warnings for the stock market are bmo.com 0.6
Barron's 50-Stock Average 51 Dow Jones Per Share Values 50 Mutual Funds 47 Week In Stocks 50
DATA
Cash Track 47 Exchange Traded Portfolios 46 N.Y. Stock Exchange 38 Weekly Bond Statistics 52
Charting the Market 35 Federal Reserve Data Bank 53 Nasdaq National Market 42 Winners & Losers Stocks 36
Coming Earnings 51 Foreign Exchange 51 New Corporate Listings 50
Conference Call Calendar 53 Gold & Silver Prices 52 New Highs & Lows 53
Delta Tactical Sentiment 51 Gold Mining Index 52 NYSE Half-Hourly Volume 50
Distributions & Offerings 53 Indexes P/Es & Yields 50 Other Market Indexes 49
Dividend Boosts - Reductions 52 Initial Public Offerings 50 Pulse of the Economy 51
Dividend Ex-Payment Dates 52 Investor Sentiment Readings 50 Stock Splits - Special Dividends 52
DJ Averages 49 Key Foreign Market Indexes 45 Stock Volume 50
DJ U.S. Total Market Industry Groups 51 Market Lab 49 Trading Diary 49
Contact Us
Dow Jones Averages 49 Money Rates, U.S. & Foreign 51 Vital Signs 29 For queries, email us at
Statistics from February 13-17, 2023 [email protected]
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE LIST - NEW HIGHS - NEW LOWS
–52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div
High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt.
21.32 15.41 AmericaMovil AMX 1.7 7 20.65 +0.89.4414 19.20 3.81 ArdmoreShipping ASC .0 5 18.00 +1.84 .45 41.38 25.37 BP BP 3.6 dd 40.02 –0.63.3966 72.00 46.10 BoydGaming BYD .0 11 66.19 +0.55 .16
A 22.11 15.86 AmericaMovil A AMOV 3.1 7 20.60 +1.09.4414 10.22 9.73 AresAcqnA AAC ... 47 10.21 ... ... 26.08 8.50 BP Prudhoe BPT 33.1 3 10.55 –0.99.2974 55.72 40.52 Brady BRC 1.7 18 53.10 +0.10 .23
39.10 24.01 AmericanAssets AAT 5.0 36 26.30 –0.13 .33 16.48 9.90 AresCommRealEst ACRE 11.3 19 11.67 –0.10 .02 34.00 5.75 BRC BRCC ... dd 7.33 +0.46 ... 6.64 3.41 BraemarHtls BHR 4.2 dd 4.78 –0.09 .05
54.97 33.75 AAR AIR ... 21 54.42 +3.01 ... 11.96 6.36 AmericanAxle AXL ... cc 9.25 +0.12 ... 87.50 53.15 AresMgmt ARES 3.7 94 83.11 –2.23 .77 4.13 1.22 BRF BRFS ... dd 1.35 +0.10 ... 14.55 5.94 BrandywineRealty BDN 11.7 21 6.49 –0.14 .19
35.54 23.97 ABB ABB 2.1 26 34.17 +0.54.7066 21.93 9.46 AmerEagle AEO 4.6 27 15.58 ... .18 42.15 31.26 Argan AGX 2.5 27 39.88 +0.60 .25 25.67 18.73 BRT Apartments BRT 4.7 8 21.32 +0.14 .25 9.82 4.11 BrasilAgro LND 18.7 6 5.19 +0.01.6018
54.00 37.68 ABMIndustries ABM 1.8 14 48.80 +0.81 .22 48.37 28.05 AmerEquity AEL .8 4 44.99 –2.31 .36 45.26 19.00 ArgoGroup ARGO 4.3 dd 29.00 –0.39 .31 62.84 42.77 BWX Tech BWXT 1.5 18 60.53 +0.80 .22 19.93 7.71 Braskem BAK 41.0 9 7.87 –0.64 .708
9.00 4.27 ACCO Brands ACCO 5.1 30 5.85 –0.39 .075 197.75 130.65 AmerExpress AXP 1.2 18 177.30 –1.95 .52 23.58 11.75 ArisWater ARIS 3.1 cc 14.04 –0.25 .09 9.08 3.89 Babcock&Wilcox BW ... dd 6.70 +0.27 ... 71.29 28.85 BreadFinancial BFH 2.1 9 40.52 –0.16 .21
13.70 7.23 AcresCmclRlty ACR ... 15 9.52 +0.23 ... 152.29 119.01 AmericanFin AFG 1.9 13 133.80 –3.65 4.00 145.17 89.12 AristaNetworks ANET ... 32 138.23 +4.96 ... 137.75 6.31 Babylon BBLN ... dd 9.44 –2.12 ... 21.98 11.88 BridgeInvt BRDG 4.6 9 14.74 +0.23 .17
17.28 2.69 ADC Therap ADCT ... dd 4.35 –0.05 ... 43.89 29.31 AmHomes4Rent AMH 2.6 55 33.25 –0.60 .22 3.69 2.65 ArlingtonAsset AAIC ... 47 3.01 +0.02 ... 123.59 73.20 BadgerMeter BMI .7 53 120.29 +1.54 .225 3.66 0.49 BrightHealth BHG ... dd .87 +0.06 ...
10.10 6.00 ADT ADT 1.7 dd 8.37 +0.06 .035 65.73 47.05 AIG AIG 2.1 5 60.82 –0.50 .32 11.79 2.93 ArloTech ARLO ... dd 4.37 +0.16 ... 7.76 1.13 Bakkt BKKT ... dd 1.68 +0.18 ... 140.02 54.19 BrightHorizons BFAM ... 58 79.87 +5.88 ...
92.16 60.74 AECOM ACM .7 38 89.39 –0.42 .18 28.39 12.90 AmRltyInv ARL ... 1 26.13 –0.82 ... 15.13 10.04 ArmadaHoffler AHH 5.7 18 13.45 +0.95 .19 94.79 46.00 Ball BALL 1.4 26 57.54 +2.93 .20 4.60 2.04 BrightScholar BEDU ... ... 3.08 –0.09 ...
29.89 18.62 AES AES 2.5 dd 26.23 +0.12.1659 100.51 71.22 AmerStWater AWR 1.7 44 94.27 +0.71.3975 8.82 4.38 ArmourResREIT ARR 16.4 dd 5.87 –0.21 .08 36.97 17.54 Bally's BALY ... dd 20.94 +1.82 ... 26.88 14.73 BrightSphere BSIG .2 12 25.90 –0.28 .01
74.02 52.07 Aflac AFL 2.4 11 69.37 –0.51 .42 110.00 11.28 AmerStratInvt NYC 3.3 dd 12.00 +0.44 .80 97.05 66.86 ArmstrongWorld AWI 1.2 20 81.37 +1.80 .254 20.62 14.86 BancCalifornia BANC 1.3 10 18.01 +0.93 .10 9.63 6.11 BrightSpire BRSP10.9 8 7.34 –0.01 .20
150.28 88.55 AGCO AGCO .7 12 138.31 +0.13 .24 282.47 178.17 AmerTowerREIT AMT 2.8 33 210.26 –6.46 1.56 134.56 89.38 ArrowElec ARW ... 6 123.28 –3.37 ... 5.11 2.03 BancoBBVA BBAR .0 3 4.64 +0.27.0162 14.07 5.56 BrightView BV ... 77 6.55 +0.02 ...
9.65 3.52 AG Mortgage MITT13.0 dd 6.23 –0.12 .18 25.99 13.82 AmerVanguard AVD .6 22 20.40 –0.83 .03 40.68 25.67 ArtisanPtrsAsset APAM 7.0 12 35.47 –0.53 .35 7.49 3.93 BancoBilbaoViz BBVA 4.0 7 7.45 +0.25.3333 43.46 21.47 BrinkerIntl EAT ... 24 39.40 –0.80 ...
8.23 1.12 a.k.a.Brands AKA ... dd 1.57 ... ... 173.87 122.77 AmerWaterWorks AWK 1.8 33 149.61 –0.84 .655 23.43 9.64 Artivion AORT ... dd 13.96 +0.57 ... 3.55 2.24 BancoBradesco BBDO 5.4 7 2.42 +0.15.0033 72.13 48.38 Brink's BCO 1.3 18 63.96 +1.22 .20
21.09 3.77 AMC Ent AMC ... dd 5.24 +0.34 ... 5.43 2.52 AmericanWell AMWL ... dd 3.77 +0.15 ... 69.75 11.32 Asana ASAN ... dd 15.61 +1.13 ... 22.74 15.64 BancodeChile BCH 4.7 7 21.81 –0.19 .855 81.44 65.95 BristolMyers BMY 3.2 24 71.11 –1.09 .57
129.04 82.76 AMN Healthcare AMN ... 9 92.50 –0.43 ... 32.99 21.49 AmericoldRealty COLD 2.8 dd 31.84 +1.08 .22 253.67 138.88 AsburyAutomotive ABG ... 5 241.52 +10.01 ... 17.51 12.58 Bladex BLX 5.9 9 17.06 +0.41 .25 0.25 0.10 BristolMyersRt CELG.RT73.4 ... .14 ....1046
2555.30 8.38 AMTD Digital HKD ... ... 8.50 –0.72 ... 357.46 219.99 Ameriprise AMP 1.4 16 351.48 +1.75 1.25 12.09 4.09 AshfordHosp AHT ... dd 5.86 –0.24 ... 23.15 9.72 BancoMacro BMA 3.1 5 20.22 –0.19.0729 40.10 21.61 Bristow VTOL ... 50 28.11 –0.82 ...
25.80 1.59 AMTD IDEA AMTD ... 1 1.66 –0.02 ... 174.63 134.70 AmerisourceBrgn ABC 1.2 20 161.49 +2.46 .485 114.36 83.29 Ashland ASH 1.3 dd 103.37 –0.64 .335 7.98 4.80 BancSanBrasil BSBR 6.8 ... 5.82 +0.31.0881 46.93 35.47 BritishAmTob BTI 7.3 11 38.15 +1.30.7006
10.54 9.91 AP Acqn A APCA ... cc 10.46 +0.02 ... 148.06 106.17 Ametek AME .7 29 146.49 +1.80 .25 38.04 7.93 AspenAerogels ASPN ... dd 12.30 +1.88 ... 22.95 13.37 BcoSantChile BSAC ... 8 17.27 +0.07 ... 27.19 17.62 BrixmorProp BRX 4.5 20 23.22 +0.14 .26
4.18 2.11 ARC Document ARC 5.6 13 3.57 –0.27 .05 4.76 1.95 AmnealPharm AMRX ... dd 2.43 +0.14 ... 6.71 4.52 BcoSantMex BSMX 9.2 7 6.62 +0.08.3272 9.02 3.52 BroadmarkRealty BRMK 9.7 10 4.34 +0.09 .035
27.87 16.88 AssetMarkFin AMK ... 23 27.49 +0.80 ...
7.70 4.45 ASE Tech ASX 8.0 7 7.10 –0.25.4794 6.67 2.26 Ampco-Pitt AP ... dd 2.80 –0.34 ... 183.33 131.35 BroadridgeFinl BR 2.0 32 143.86 –2.19 .725
25.50 17.45 AssociatedBanc ASB 3.5 10 23.81 +0.18 .21 3.82 2.26 BancoSantander SAN 2.0 6 3.74 +0.09.0559
124.35 78.26 ASGN ASGN ... 18 92.46 +0.87 ... 82.86 61.67 Amphenol APH 1.0 26 81.03 +1.17 .21 22.80 14.98 Broadstone BNL 6.0 26 18.38 +0.48 .275
44.50 33.69 AssocCapital AC .5 dd 36.85 +0.59 .10 45.98 23.86 BanColombia CIB 9.5 7 26.76 –1.31.6545
21.53 14.46 AT&T T 5.7 dd 19.44 +0.37.2775 10.38 4.44 AmplifyEnergy AMPY ... 5 8.14 –0.63 ... 7.61 2.37 BrookdaleSrLiving BKD ... dd 3.07 +0.32 ...
194.12 119.01 Assurant AIZ 2.1 27 132.41 –1.00 .70 46.54 29.31 BankofAmerica BAC 2.5 11 35.35 –0.23 .22
41.40 20.52 ATI ATI ... 47 41.24 +2.63 ... 26.01 5.62 AmpriusTech AMPX ... dd 6.21 +0.09 ... 36.50 26.76 BrookfieldAsset BAM 3.6 ... 35.10 +0.42 .32
67.13 45.91 AssuredGuaranty AGO 1.6 15 62.71 +0.45 .25 40.82 28.67 BankofButterfield NTB 4.8 9 37.00 +4.81 .44
2.72 0.22 ATI PhysTherapy ATIP ... dd .41 +0.03 ... 16.72 9.88 Amrep AXR ... 5 12.61 –0.30 ... 36.79 17.58 BrookfieldBus BBUC 1.2 3 21.01 –0.07.0625
32.00 2.40 Atento ATTO ... dd 3.32 –0.76 ... 88.28 70.15 BankofHawaii BOH 3.7 14 75.97 –0.54 .70
19.79 12.27 A10Networks ATEN 1.6 25 15.19 +0.08 .06 10.42 9.84 AndrettiAcqnA WNNR ... cc 10.41 +0.02 ... 47.81 29.85 Brookfield BN .8 31 35.82 –0.50 .07
10.20 9.70 AthenaTechII A ATEK ... cc 10.18 +0.02 ... 122.77 81.57 BankofMontreal BMO 3.4 6 100.31 –1.121.0212
10.95 9.94 AxiosSustGrwA AXAC ... dd 10.33 –0.12 ... 17.93 4.43 AngelOakMtg AOMR17.8 dd 7.18 –0.32 .32 53.64 37.55 BrookfieldInfr BIPC 3.5 19 43.44 +0.80.3825
153.55 70.50 Atkore ATKR ... 7 146.46 +3.55 ... 57.46 36.22 BankNY Mellon BK 2.9 18 51.50 +0.10 .37
0.18 0.04 AxiosSustGrwRt AXAC.RT ... ... .12 ... ... 26.96 11.94 AngloGoldAsh AU 2.3 14 18.47 –1.30.2935 46.01 30.03 BrookfieldInfr BIP 4.4 59 34.87 +0.69.3825
41.43 30.26 AtlUnionBkshs AUB 3.1 13 38.12 –0.47 .30 74.82 45.26 BankNovaScotia BNS 5.6 9 54.14 –0.98.7941
63.99 48.32 AXIS Capital AXS 2.8 28 62.77 +0.16 .44 66.05 44.51 AB InBev BUD .7 31 58.82 +0.77.3998 48.27 29.84 BrookfieldReinsur BNRE .0 ... 35.86 –0.53 .07
15.63 10.13 Atlas ATCO 3.3 8 15.30 –0.05 .125 45.86 30.75 BankUnited BKU 2.7 10 36.79 –0.87 .25
30.26 15.12 AZEK AZEK ... cc 24.80 –1.75 ... 29.88 15.11 AnnalyCap NLY 16.3 4 21.59 –0.07 .88 44.41 27.19 BrookfieldRenew BEPC 4.5 16 30.01 +0.80.3375
50.84 30.21 AZZ AZZ 1.6 cc 41.42 +1.80 .17 122.96 97.71 AtmosEnergy ATO 2.5 21 117.11 +0.86 .74 10.35 9.86 BanyanAcqnA BYN ... 25 10.32 ... ...
23.91 8.39 AnnovisBio ANVS ... dd 18.27 –1.77 ... 5.07 1.52 ATRenew RERE ... dd 2.93 –0.15 ... 11.19 5.89 Barclays BCS 6.4 ... 8.43 –0.62.2435 74.00 52.91 Brown&Brown BRO .8 24 57.67 –0.58 .115
23.63 7.65 Aaron's AAN 3.1 29 14.75 +0.11.1125 11.61 8.56 AnteroMidstream AM 8.5 16 10.63 –0.08 .225 76.60 56.97 Brown-Forman A BF.A 1.3 36 65.62 +0.75.2055
124.36 93.25 AbbottLabs ABT 1.9 27 106.74 –1.42 .51 3.36 0.20 Audacy AUD ... dd .27 –0.03 ... 11.02 7.89 BaringsBDC BBDC10.9 30 8.73 +0.08 .24
48.80 20.24 AnteroResources AR ... 4 25.23 –3.10 ... 40.89 20.49 Autohome ATHM 1.5 16 34.45 –1.07 .53 5.84 1.38 Barnes&NobleEduc BNED ... dd 2.41 +0.11 ... 78.15 60.23 Brown-Forman B BF.B 1.3 36 65.65 +0.64.2055
175.91 134.09 AbbVie ABBV 3.9 23 151.31 –0.74 1.48 20.59 5.82 AnywhereRealEst HOUS ... 4 8.16 –0.06 ... 98.33 61.89 Brunswick BC 1.8 10 89.11 +2.64 .40
39.75 14.02 Abercrombie&Fitch ANF ... 73 31.19 +0.70 ... 100.83 65.74 Autoliv ALV 2.9 19 90.42 +1.08 .66 48.42 27.93 BarnesGroup B 1.5 86 43.47 –1.04 .16
341.98 246.21 Aon AON .7 26 310.27 –7.55 .56 158.30 94.92 AutoNation AN ... 6 157.30 +23.45 ... 26.07 13.01 BarrickGold GOLD 3.9 70 16.74 –1.19 .10 50.35 26.50 Buckle BKE 3.3 8 42.58 +0.38 2.65
22.63 12.28 AcadiaRealty AKR 4.7 dd 15.16 +0.16 .18 55.82 33.57 AptIncmREIT AIRC 4.6 7 39.43 +0.42 .45 12.35 5.09 Buenaventura BVN 1.1 5 7.44 +0.05 .073
14.04 7.26 AccelEnt ACEL ... 13 9.45 +0.10 ... 2610.05 1703.32 AutoZone AZO ... 22 2605.62 +91.93 ... 58.17 25.75 Bath&BodyWks BBWI 1.9 11 42.89 –1.43 .20
9.79 5.22 ApartmtInv AIV 21.6 4 7.61 –0.05 .02 259.05 157.69 Avalonbay AVB 3.7 20 179.27 –1.01 1.65 10.41 9.76 BatteryFutureA BFAC ... 19 10.36 +0.02 ... 26.87 12.47 Build-A-Bear BBW ... 7 23.05 +0.06 ...
345.30 242.95 Accenture ACN 1.6 25 277.05 –6.91 1.12 22.94 13.09 APi Group APG ... dd 22.06 +0.73 ... 10.20 9.70 BuildAcqnA BGSX ... 42 10.12 +0.01 ...
10.31 9.63 AcropolisInfrA ACRO ... dd 10.08 –0.02 ... 51.71 37.64 Avangrid AGR 4.3 18 41.34 +0.75 .44 20.20 12.20 Bausch+Lomb BLCO ... cc 18.91 +2.30 ...
14.55 7.91 ApolloComRlEst ARI 11.7 8 11.97 +0.24 .35 35.91 19.32 AvanosMedical AVNS ... 33 29.95 –0.15 ... 24.82 4.00 BauschHealth BHC ... 14 9.51 +2.35 ... 85.40 48.91 BuildersFirst BLDR ... 5 81.48 +1.16 ...
198.85 142.71 AcuityBrands AYI .3 18 196.41 +8.14 .13 74.63 45.62 ApolloGlbMgmt APO 2.2 dd 71.44 +0.78 .40 128.40 80.41 Bunge BG 2.6 9 97.57 –1.32 .625
53.94 37.46 Acushnet GOLF 1.4 21 50.62 +2.04 .18 35.53 17.91 Avantor AVTR ... 25 24.54 +0.56 ... 86.96 38.58 BaxterIntl BAX 2.8 dd 41.00 +0.05 .29
10.18 9.68 ApolloStratII A APGB ... 45 10.14 ... ... 204.37 151.62 AveryDennison AVY 1.6 20 182.50 +1.11 .75 2.40 0.50 Beachbody BODY ... dd .69 +0.10 ... 11.20 6.94 BurfordCapital BUR 3.0 ... 8.25 ....0625
13.55 6.95 Adecoagro AGRO 3.9 6 8.06 +0.32.1602 18.69 13.79 AppleHospREIT APLE 5.6 25 17.01 –0.04 .08 239.94 106.47 BurlingtonStrs BURL ... 92 227.94 +4.47 ...
49.14 27.15 Adient ADNT ... dd 44.60 +2.33 ... 54.77 27.65 Avient AVNT 2.3 6 42.93 +5.05.2475 10.50 9.82 BeardEnerA BRD ... ... 10.28 +0.01 ...
149.42 88.09 AppliedIndlTechs AIT 1.0 19 144.59 +3.72 .35 46.90 35.72 Avista AVA 4.5 23 40.76 +0.79 .46 17.64 9.47 BeazerHomes BZH ... 2 14.76 –0.28 ... 8.72 2.17 ButterflyNtwk BFLY ... dd 2.43 –0.01 ...
44.40 19.14 AdtalemGlbEduc ATGE ... dd 40.96 +0.85 ... 122.94 90.23 Aptargroup ATR 1.3 33 116.69 +7.48 .38 28.14 20.15 BylineBancorp BY 1.4 11 25.09 –0.08 .09
231.43 138.52 AdvanceAuto AAP 4.0 19 149.99 –1.81 1.50 30.80 20.66 AxaltaCoating AXTA ... 34 29.38 +0.32 ... 277.29 215.90 BectonDicknsn BDX 1.5 45 244.52 –3.31 .91
144.72 77.96 Aptiv APTV ... 61 119.64 +6.84 ... 55.00 33.91 AxosFinancial AX ... 12 50.24 +1.52 ... 92.33 47.89 Belden BDC .2 15 89.79 +0.98 .05
153.36 79.90 AdvDrainageSys WMS .5 17 93.13 +0.38 .12 45.72 28.74 Aramark ARMK 1.1 44 38.30 –0.16 .11 C
57.10 30.69 AdvanSix ASIX 1.4 8 42.24 –0.18 .145 17.39 4.51 Azul AZUL ... dd 4.52 –0.61 ... 31.93 20.20 BellRing BRBR ... 35 30.91 +0.71 ...
18.09 11.16 ArborRealty ABR 9.9 8 15.54 +0.89 .40 21.53 3.26 AzurePowerGlbl AZRE ... ... 3.79 +0.46 ... 30.00 21.11 BenchmarkElec BHE 2.7 13 24.87 –0.29 .165
5.89 3.76 Aegon AEG 3.7 dd 5.51 –0.03.1288 34.59 19.25 ArcelorMittal MT 1.1 3 30.04 +1.26 .38 319.33 240.02 CACI Intl CACI ... 20 304.00 +2.42 ...
6.57 1.85 Aenza AENZ ... dd 2.83 +0.07 ... 5.85 2.16 BensonHill BHIL ... dd 2.30 –0.02 ... 5.59 2.73 CBD Pao CBD 1.8 3 3.35 –0.11.0713
183.53 110.97 ArchResources ARCH .6 2 159.19 +16.70 2.86 B 10.43 9.68 BerensonAcqnI BACA ... 18 10.13 +0.02 ...
67.20 37.20 AerCap AER ... dd 61.38 –0.43 ... 5.24 1.62 ArcherAviation ACHR ... dd 2.81 +0.13 ... 51.67 36.29 CBIZ CBZ ... 25 49.99 +1.74 ...
56.59 35.47 AerojetRocket AJRD ... 62 55.98 +0.15 ... 76.99 56.95 Berkley WRB .6 14 67.14 –1.05 .50 34.91 21.66 CBL&Assoc CBL 4.2 dd 26.59 +0.29 .375
98.88 70.02 ArcherDaniels ADM 2.2 11 81.59 –0.50 .45 4.46 1.25 Bark BARK ... dd 1.55 +0.02 ... 544389 393012 BerkHathwy A BRK.A ... dd 467372 –4877.26 ...
4.91 1.17 AevaTech AEVA ... dd 1.73 –0.01 ... 10.44 6.28 Archrock AROC 6.3 38 9.55 +0.03 .15 31.66 10.91 B&G Foods BGS 6.1 dd 12.47 +0.34 .19 101.53 66.31 CBRE Group CBRE ... 15 88.76 +1.46 ...
180.63 108.12 AffiliatedMgrs AMG .0 6 167.03 +0.68 .01 362.10 259.85 BerkHathwy B BRK.B ... dd 308.24 –1.65 ... 10.66 9.74 CCNeubergerIII A PRPC ... 24 10.16 ... ...
32.92 16.33 Arconic ARNC ... 54 24.12 +1.49 ... 59.34 39.88 BCE BCE 6.3 20 45.83 +0.24.7237 31.63 23.62 BerkshireHills BHLB 2.4 15 30.31 –0.45 .18
10.25 9.70 AfricanGoldA AGAC ... 49 10.15 ... ... 9.04 6.23 ArcosDorados ARCO 1.8 14 8.50 +0.35 .03 5.35 0.50 BEST BEST ... 0 .73 +0.05 ... 119.60 72.54 CF Industries CF 1.9 5 82.35 –8.14 .40
10.18 9.61 AfterNextA AFTR ... 39 10.13 +0.01 ... 66.21 44.52 BerryGlobal BERY 1.6 11 62.89 +0.65 .25 10.34 9.87 C5AcqnA CXAC ... cc 10.33 +0.01 ...
65.80 43.52 Arcosa ACA .3 28 58.48 +0.88 .05 16.02 10.30 BGSF BGSF 3.9 14 15.22 –0.27 .15 112.96 60.79 BestBuy BBY 4.0 13 86.94 +1.42 .88
160.26 112.52 AgilentTechs A .6 35 148.26 –4.29 .225 10.19 9.71 ArctosNorthA ANAC ... 32 10.18 +0.02 ... 71.52 46.92 BHP Group BHP 9.8 7 66.44 +0.46 3.50 94.00 72.23 CGI GIB ... 20 93.33 +0.59 ...
23.26 14.15 Agiliti AGTI ... 70 18.50 –0.25 ... 40.45 12.87 BigLots BIG 7.2 dd 16.75 +0.37 .30 19.08 5.22 CI&T CINT ... 29 5.81 +0.03 ...
39.75 16.74 ArcusBiosci RCUS ... 22 20.31 +0.18 ... 31.76 1.40 BitMining BTCM ... dd 3.49 +0.43 ... 16.12 0.58 BigBear.ai BBAI ... dd 3.91 –0.91 ...
28.36 14.82 agilon health AGL ... dd 22.79 –0.05 ... 9.20 3.91 ArdaghMetalPkg AMBP 7.2 14 5.52 +0.23 .10 80.41 51.45 BJ'sWholesale BJ ... 21 75.01 +0.12 ... 73.76 52.41 CMS Energy CMS 3.1 22 61.97 +0.56.4875
67.14 36.69 AgnicoEagleMines AEM 3.5 31 46.23 –5.00 .40 850.00 540.33 BiglariA BH.A ... dd 845.64 +0.64 ... 50.33 35.90 CNA Fin CNA 3.9 13 43.37 –0.87 1.20
80.44 61.62 AgreeRealty ADC 3.9 41 74.80 +2.12 .24 176.18 110.56 BiglariB BH ... dd 171.20 –0.77 ... 17.98 10.60 CNH Indl CNHI 1.7 11 16.73 +0.51.3861
47.00 29.75 AirLease AL 1.9 dd 42.88 –0.52 .20 247.58 89.87 Bill.com BILL ... dd 93.30 –1.65 ... 26.26 16.56 CNO Financial CNO 2.2 8 25.41 –0.46 .14
328.56 216.24 AirProducts APD 2.5 28 279.71 –8.11 1.75 20.57 5.54 Biohaven BHVN ... ... 16.51 –0.47 ... 24.21 14.55 CNX Resources CNX ... dd 15.71 –0.66 ...
651.83 344.63 Bio-RadLab A BIO ... dd 483.23 +12.05 ...
Cash Track
open-end funds by assets. These
funds value their portfolios daily barrons.com/cefund. They will no longer appear in print. The
and report net asset values (the
dollar amount of their holdings Herzfeld chart has moved to the Market Lab Newsletter. To sign
divided by the number of shares
outstanding) to the National up for the newsletter, go to barrons.com/newletters. Stocking Up: Equity funds crossed into positive cash flow, with the past month’s average weekly inflow
Association of Securities Dealers.
Total returns reflect both price rising to $620 million. Inflows ebbed at bond funds, with taxable-bond fund average inflows subsiding to $3.4
changes and dividends; these Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. billion, and municipal-bond fund inflows dropping to $950 million. Money-market flows went from negative to
figures assume that all distribu- NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
tions are reinvested in the fund. LtdTEBdA 15.08 -0.16 0.4 -1.5 Bridge Builder Trust: Fixd 10.08 0.00 0.5 -0.5
a positive $900 million.
Because Lipper is constantly up-
dating its database, these returns N PerA 51.33 0.10 8.5 19.9 CoreBond 8.92 -0.05 1.5 -6.9 GblAll60 40Inst 19.41 -0.01 4.7 15.1
may differ from those previously NEcoA 47.10 0.02 8.3 7.0 CorePlusBond 8.79 NA NA NA GlEqInst 28.24 0.02 7.2 25.9 Equity Funds Municipal Bond Funds
published or calculated by others. NwWrldA 70.36 -0.20 5.9 6.2 Intl Eq 11.65 0.02 8.7 3.6 GlRESec 10.33 -0.09 6.4 -6.0
3 year returns are cumulative. The SmCpA 61.61 0.31 9.8 12.2 InfProtSec 10.93 -0.04 1.0 2.5 1900 1600
NAV is the last reported closing LargeCapGrowth 18.36 -0.03 7.4 21.2
price for the week. Footnotes: NA:
STBFA 9.44 -0.02 0.2 -1.5 LargeCapValue 15.70 0.02 4.6 34.5 IntGvFxdInc 10.91 -0.04 0.8 -9.6
not available. NE: performance STTxExBdA 9.82 -0.08 0.1 -0.8 MunicipalBond 9.76 -0.13 1.0 -2.3 IntlCoreEq 14.54 0.06 7.6 15.9 -3700 500
excluded by Lipper editor. NN: fund TECAA 16.32 -0.24 1.0 -3.9 S/MCapGrowth 12.91 0.14 9.9 14.1 IntlREst 3.87 -0.02 4.3 -17.3
not tracked. NS: fund not in TxExA 12.13 -0.18 1.1 -3.5 S/MCapValue 13.46 0.09 8.8 31.1 IntlSustCore1 11.47 0.06 7.9 11.5 -9300 -600
existence for whole period. e: ex WshA 53.06 -0.35 2.1 25.6 IntlVal 19.27 0.12 8.4 25.8
capital gains distributions. f: Brown Advisory Funds:
previous day’s quote. n: no front- AMG Managers Funds:
GrwthEquityInst 23.37 -0.11 7.9 4.2
IntlVectorEq 12.75 0.05 7.7 18.0 -14900 -1700
or back-end sales charge. p: fund YachtmanFocFd I 18.85 -0.25 4.5 29.0 IntSmCo 18.60 0.04 6.8 12.7
assets are used to pay marketing YacktFocFd N n 18.92 -0.25 4.5 28.2 C IntSmVa 20.12 0.04 7.0 17.2 -20500 -2800
and distribution costs (12b-1 fees). IntTermMuni 9.90 -0.12 0.2 -1.3
r: fund levies redemption fee or YacktmanFd I 22.12 -0.17 4.7 31.6 Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb
back-end load. s: stock dividend or Angel Oak Funds Trst: Calamos Funds: IntVaIII 16.59 0.10 8.4 26.1
split of 25% or more. t: fund charges AglOkMtiStFdClIn 8.53 NA NA NA MktNeutI 14.08 0.00 2.3 7.3 LgCo 27.85 -0.05 6.5 26.5
12b-1 fees (for marketing and
AQR Funds: Calvert Investments: LgCpIntl 24.89 0.09 7.6 14.7 Money Market Funds Taxable Bond Funds
distribution) and a back-end load.
v: capital-gains distribution may be LgCapDefStyle I 25.45 0.00 1.8 16.7 Eq A 68.52 -0.20 3.6 27.5
SclCrEqInst 13.44 0.07 8.6 12.1 24600 6900
a return of capital. x: ex cash
STExQual 10.15 -0.01 0.7 -3.4
MgdFutStrI 8.65 0.09 -0.7 32.6 Carillon Scout:
dividend. STGov 9.82 0.01 0.5 -5.0 17500 3200
ArbitrageI : MidCap I 20.58 -0.01 6.2 24.8 STMuniBd 10.06 -0.02 0.2 0.4
Net YTD 3-Yr. ArbitrageI 12.76 0.04 0.4 5.9 CausewayInst :
NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
US CoreEq1 31.95 0.04 7.3 31.4 10400 -500
Artisan Funds: CausewayInst 17.60 0.17 10.5 21.0 US CoreEq2 29.15 0.05 7.4 33.6
A GblOppInst 28.75 0.12 8.9 15.3 CIBC Atlas: US Micro 25.34 0.45 10.7 41.4
Intl Inv n 25.68 0.09 7.4 -1.3 US Small 42.73 0.61 10.4 39.2
3300 -4200
DispEq Inst 25.21 -0.09 4.6 20.2
AAM: IntlInst 25.82 0.09 7.4 -0.6 ClearBridge: US SmCpVal 43.22 0.53 10.0 57.9
IntlVal Inst 41.72 0.49 8.1 27.5 US TgdVal 30.26 0.31 10.5 56.7
-3800 -7900
B&GIncGroClI 22.45 -0.08 1.1 18.1 AggressGrowthA105.52 1.36 9.4 1.0
AB Funds: IntlVal Inv n 41.58 0.48 8.1 26.5 AllCapValueA 12.90 0.01 5.9 24.1 USLCpGr 26.74 0.02 4.7 30.4 Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb
CapFdInc.LCapGow 75.24 0.13 7.8 25.0 MidCapInst 37.95 0.58 13.4 15.5 AppreciationA 27.69 -0.07 3.0 23.0 USLgVa 43.49 -0.33 4.8 26.1
MidCapInv n 31.80 0.48 13.4 14.7 USLgVaIII 28.47 -0.21 4.8 26.4 A red chart indicates a lower value than the starting period. Green means it's higher than the starting period.
IntlStraEquPtZ 11.42 -0.01 8.7 2.2 DividendStrat1 n 27.30 -0.05 2.1 25.0
USSoCoreEq2 21.07 0.11 9.5 29.7 The charts above show four-week moving averages of net cash flow in millions of dollars. BARRON'S • Lipper FMI
MuniIncmShares 10.99 -0.19 2.0 -0.6 B DividendStratA 27.28 -0.04 2.1 23.9
AB Funds - A: LargeCapGrowthA44.62 0.00 11.6 11.2 USSustCoreI 32.64 0.17 8.2 31.8
LargeCapGrowthI 51.97 0.00 11.6 12.1 USVectorEq 23.15 0.10 8.5 36.4
LgCpGrA 66.96 0.11 7.7 23.8 Baird Funds: Dodge & Cox: Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr.
RelatValA 6.13 0.01 4.6 32.5 AggBdInst 9.71 -0.05 1.4 -7.8 LargeCapValueI 37.59 0.04 3.1 26.7 NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
AB Funds - ADV: SmallCapGrowthIS 41.93 0.70 12.4 22.6 Balanced n 97.73 -0.43 4.7 22.7
CorBdInst 9.99 -0.05 1.4 -6.7 Dodge & Cox n 10.32 -0.06 2.4 2.4 InflPrBdIndInsPr n 9.11 -0.02 1.0 2.5 FF2015 n 10.68 -0.04 3.7 5.1 DivStkO n 27.33 -0.19 6.1 30.8 SrsIntlGrw 15.40 -0.07 8.0 11.5
GlbBd 6.80 -0.04 1.6 -8.4 IntBdInst 10.15 -0.02 0.9 -3.7 Cohen & Steers: IntlIdxInstPrem n 44.39 0.19 7.8 11.7 FF2020 n 13.31 -0.05 4.3 6.7 EmrMkt n 33.93 -0.41 8.0 3.6 SrsGroCoRetail 15.29 0.04 11.0 43.0
GlbRltyI 52.10 -0.44 7.6 -5.4 GblStock n 13.65 0.01 8.2 29.5
HiIncmAdv 6.67 -0.06 3.1 -2.3 ShtTBdInst 9.26 -0.01 0.6 0.1 Income n 12.42 -0.06 1.9 -3.2 IntlIndex n 10.48 -0.02 6.8 8.2 FF2025 n 12.27 -0.05 4.7 8.3 Eq Inc n 65.42 -0.17 2.6 27.3 SrsIntlSmCp 15.91 0.04 7.2 12.5
IntlStraEquPtADV 11.40 -0.01 8.6 2.2 Baron Funds: InstlRlty 46.19 -0.30 8.5 5.3 IntrTresBdIxPrem n 9.62 -0.05 0.7 -9.1 FF2030 n 15.39 -0.06 5.2 10.6 EqDivIncm n 27.11 0.09 5.9 30.0 SrsIntlVal 10.76 0.01 7.3 22.5
Intl Stk n 46.35 0.21 7.5 15.4
LgCpGrAdv 75.33 0.13 7.7 24.7 Asset n 93.01 0.75 7.1 11.6 PrefSecIncnI 12.30 -0.10 5.2 -1.4 LgCpGwId InstPre n 22.87 0.04 9.8 26.6 FF2035 n 13.33 -0.05 6.0 14.7 Fidel n 62.17 -0.15 6.6 23.1 STBF n 8.24 -0.01 0.6 -0.7
Stock n 229.40 -0.62 6.3 36.7
SelectUSLgShrt 12.37 -0.05 0.7 14.9 Growth n 94.53 2.06 11.2 23.7 RltyIncI 16.51 -0.07 8.9 3.7 LgCpVlIdxIstPrem n 15.44 -0.04 4.3 22.3 FF2040 n 9.50 -0.03 6.9 17.9 FltRateHi n 9.14 -0.03 2.8 9.7 StkSelSmCp n 30.98 0.36 10.6 33.8
DoubleLine Funds:
SmMidCpValAdv 22.58 0.15 11.5 32.6 Partners n 144.33 5.67 29.4 94.0 RltyShs n 63.44 -0.41 8.5 4.6 LTTrsBdIdxInstPr n 10.38 -0.11 2.8 -23.9 FF2045 n 10.92 -0.03 7.0 18.1 FocsdStk n 24.79 -0.11 4.9 20.6 StkSlcACap n 60.12 -0.03 8.1 27.3
Aberdeen Fds: Colorado BondShares: CoreFxdIncmI 9.34 -0.04 2.0 -8.0 MidCpInxInstPrem n 28.17 0.17 8.7 24.5 FF2050 n 11.04 -0.04 6.9 18.0 FournOne n 50.09 -0.02 6.4 15.1 StratDivInc n 15.99 -0.02 4.1 20.9
Baron Instl Shares: LowDurBdI 9.47 0.00 1.3 0.7
EmMktEqty Inst 13.12 -0.18 5.0 -5.3 ColoradoBdShs 8.65 -0.10 1.5 5.6 OTCK6Port 15.52 -0.03 10.4 27.4 Free2055 n 12.80 -0.04 6.9 18.0 GNMA n 10.17 -0.06 1.3 -8.2 TaxFrB n 10.73 -0.17 1.4 -3.6
AssetInst 98.25 0.80 7.2 12.5 ShillerEnhCAPEI 13.13 0.00 11.6 18.4
Advisers Inv Trst: Columbia Class A: RealEstIdxInst n 15.72 -0.14 8.2 -5.4 Free2060InstPrem 14.65 -0.01 6.6 14.6 GovtInc n 9.19 -0.04 0.9 -9.6 TotalBond n 9.46 -0.06 1.9 -4.9
EmergingMktsInst 13.46 -0.26 3.2 -8.8 TotRetBdI 8.92 -0.03 2.0 -8.4
BalancedA 42.44 -0.21 4.7 13.0 SAIUSLgCpIndxFd 17.90 -0.03 6.5 26.6 Freedom2015 K 10.67 -0.04 3.7 5.4 GroCo n 25.17 0.07 11.8 37.5 TotalBond K6 8.80 -0.05 1.8 -4.5
Balanced n 81.39 -0.21 2.5 22.4 GrowthInst 99.57 2.18 11.3 24.7 TotRetBdN n 8.91 -0.03 1.9 -9.1
ContCoreA 25.88 -0.13 6.6 24.5 SeriesBondFd 8.94 -0.05 1.2 -8.7 Freedom2020 K 13.30 -0.05 4.3 6.9 GroInc n 50.86 -0.23 6.9 36.0 Trend n 121.47 0.83 12.8 23.2
Growth n 99.43 -0.25 3.3 32.4 PartnersInst 149.95 5.90 29.4 95.5
DisplCoreA 11.76 -0.06 7.5 25.9 SeriesOverseas 11.85 0.09 9.1 14.5 Freedom2020K6 13.24 -0.05 4.3 7.2 GrowCoK 25.29 0.07 11.9 37.8 Value n 13.80 0.02 10.5 48.4
Akre Funds: SmallCapInst 30.16 0.32 13.9 18.6 E
DivIncA 29.29 -0.03 1.3 26.3 SerLTTreBdIdx 6.00 -0.05 2.8 -23.9 Freedom2025 K 12.26 -0.05 4.8 8.6 GrStrt n 50.92 0.55 9.1 17.3 ValueDisc n 35.59 -0.11 1.3 32.0
AkreFocusInst 51.34 -0.15 6.8 13.1 Bernstein Fds:
Eaton Vance Class A: SmCpIdxInstPrem n 24.04 0.36 10.8 20.0 Freedom2025K6 12.22 -0.05 4.8 8.9 GwthDiscovery n 43.69 0.08 7.0 30.5 Wrldw n 26.63 0.01 5.9 16.1
AkreFocusRtl 49.48 -0.14 6.8 12.2 DivrMuni n 13.71 -0.13 0.8 -1.1 DivOpptyA 35.54 -0.14 2.0 26.9
STBdIdx InstPrem n 9.49 -0.02 0.4 -2.5 Freedom2030 K 15.38 -0.06 5.2 10.9 HighInc n 7.35 -0.07 1.6 -5.0 Fidelity SAI:
AmanaGrowth n: IntmDur n 11.36 -0.06 1.3 -9.0 LgCpGrowA 44.80 -0.09 8.0 16.4 TMG1.1 79.23 -0.16 6.4 24.8 STTreIdx InstPre n 9.86 -0.02 0.3 -3.1 Freedom2030K6 15.32 -0.06 5.2 11.3 IntBd n 9.93 -0.03 1.0 -3.9 FidSAIEmgMktIndx 12.77 -0.16 4.8 -3.9
AmanaGrowth n 60.19 -0.24 5.2 41.1 NY Mun n 13.24 -0.14 0.8 -1.9 LgCpVl A 15.23 -0.10 2.6 24.6 Eaton Vance Class I: TMktIdxInstPrem n 113.75 0.09 7.3 25.1 Freedom2035 K 13.32 -0.05 6.0 15.1 IntlDisc n 42.09 -0.05 6.2 6.6 FidSAIIntlIndxFd 12.66 0.05 7.7 11.6
Amer Beacon Insti: BlackRock Funds: LiGoBalA 10.26 -0.04 4.5 5.9 AtlCpSMID 35.91 0.06 5.1 27.7 TotalMarketIndex n 14.33 0.01 7.3 25.8 Freedom2035K6 13.28 -0.04 6.1 15.6 IntlEnhIdx n 10.06 0.06 7.5 11.1 IntlValIdx 9.07 0.09 9.0 15.2
SelgComuInfoA 92.90 -0.24 13.6 46.3 FltgRt 8.36 -0.02 3.2 7.0
SmCpInst 24.91 0.33 11.1 39.4 CoreBd Inst 8.33 -0.05 1.8 -8.0 TtlIntIdxInstPr n 12.49 -0.03 6.7 8.0 Freedom2040 K 9.50 -0.03 6.7 18.3 IntlGrRet n 17.14 -0.08 7.7 8.1 LowDurationInc 9.95 0.00 0.8 NS
TaxEA 11.61 -0.23 1.3 -7.3 GblMacAbR 8.26 NA NA NA
American Century G: HiYBlk 6.74 -0.07 2.3 1.7 USBdIdxInstPrem n 10.26 -0.06 1.1 -8.7 Freedom2040K6 9.45 -0.03 6.8 18.8 IntlSmCap n 28.77 0.16 7.6 14.6 SAIEmgMktLoVolIx 10.03 -0.04 2.6 6.9
Columbia Class Adv: IncBos 4.94 -0.05 2.2 3.9
GlBond 8.50 -0.03 1.8 -8.4 HiYldBd Inst 6.73 -0.08 2.2 1.4 USSusIdx n 17.76 -0.01 6.6 25.0 Freedom2045 K 10.91 -0.03 7.0 18.4 IntMu n 9.94 -0.13 0.7 -1.7 SAIInflaFocFd 9.33 -0.18 -4.7 49.4
InflProtBdInst 9.88 -0.02 1.4 4.5 DivIncom 29.88 -0.04 1.4 27.2 NatlMuniInc 9.11 -0.17 1.3 -3.3 Fidelity Adv Focus A: Freedom2045K6 10.86 -0.03 7.0 18.9 InvGB n 7.15 -0.04 1.7 -5.8
Sustain Equity 41.13 0.02 6.1 27.1 ShortTermBd 9.51 -0.01 0.6 NS
LowDurI Inst 8.89 -0.02 0.7 -1.6 Columbia Class C: Edgewood Growth Instituti: HthCarA 59.04 0.05 2.2 16.0 Freedom2050 K 11.04 -0.03 7.0 18.5 InvGrBd 9.97 -0.06 1.7 -4.6
American Century I: TotalBd 8.95 -0.05 1.9 -4.6
BlackRock Funds A: DivInc 28.26 -0.04 1.2 23.4 EdgewoodGrInst 34.61 -0.02 10.6 6.7 TechA 72.66 0.13 16.9 38.3 Freedom2050K6 11.01 -0.03 7.0 19.0 LargeCap n 40.46 -0.23 7.7 34.1 TxFreeBd 9.79 -0.16 1.3 -4.2
EqInc 8.98 0.01 2.4 16.2
AdvLgCapCore 16.33 0.03 7.2 24.0 Columbia Class I: Fidelity Advisor: Freedom2055 K 12.80 -0.04 6.9 18.4 LCapCrEIdx n 18.90 -0.01 5.8 30.1 U.S.TreBdIdx 8.70 -0.04 0.8 -9.3
Growth 40.18 0.08 9.8 20.8 F
CapAppr 24.75 0.00 11.2 5.8 Acorn I 10.09 0.21 12.5 -0.2 SrsAdvIntlCapApp 25.76 0.06 10.2 7.6 Freedom2055K6 12.77 -0.04 7.0 19.0 LCapGrEIdx n 24.96 0.04 8.9 30.1 USValueIndex 11.38 -0.14 7.6 29.7
IntTF 10.69 -0.14 0.9 -1.8
EqtyDivd 19.27 0.12 5.9 25.5 Balanced I 42.34 -0.21 4.7 13.8 StragInc n 11.02 -0.08 1.8 -0.4 Idx2020InsPre 14.67 -0.04 4.0 4.5 LevCoSt n 34.15 -0.07 9.4 27.4 Fidelity Selects:
MdCapVal 16.35 0.10 5.8 30.0 FAM Value:
GlblAlloc 17.08 -0.06 3.8 9.1 ContCore I 26.18 -0.13 6.6 25.5 TotBdFdClZ 9.45 -0.05 1.9 -4.5 Idx2025InsPre 16.63 -0.04 4.5 5.9 LgCpVHIdx n 14.83 -0.02 3.5 27.7
SmCapVal 10.36 0.22 13.3 47.7 FAMValue n 87.88 0.53 6.5 18.1 Biotech n 16.58 0.27 1.8 0.7
HlthScOp 64.42 -0.09 -1.8 19.2 DivIncom I 29.33 -0.03 1.4 27.3 Fidelity Advisor A: Idx2030InsPre 17.63 -0.04 4.9 7.9 LmtTrmMuniIncm n 10.15 -0.10 0.2 -1.6
American Century Inv: Federated Hermes A: DfAero n 16.27 0.16 4.6 1.1
MdCpGrA 28.61 0.29 12.1 4.9 LgCpIdx I 47.58 -0.09 6.5 26.0 BalancA 23.35 -0.09 5.7 18.7 Idx2035InsPre 19.79 -0.03 5.7 11.5 LowP n 48.19 -0.12 4.3 35.3
DiscCoreVal n 32.24 -0.14 5.1 23.8 Energy n 54.81 -3.77 -2.3 87.0
MultiAstIncome 9.84 -0.04 3.8 2.5 SelComunInfo 107.57 -0.27 13.7 47.4 StrValDivA p 5.87 0.03 1.8 22.4 EqGrA p/r 13.58 0.03 6.9 29.5 Idx2040InsPre 20.18 -0.03 6.4 14.4 LowPriStkK 48.13 -0.11 4.4 35.6
EqGro n 23.38 -0.11 5.8 13.8 Health n 28.23 0.02 2.2 19.3
NatlMuni 10.03 -0.17 1.3 -5.3 SelLCVal 32.22 0.19 3.1 37.7 Federated Hermes Int: GrOppA 98.95 -0.15 11.9 17.3 Idx2045InsPre 20.99 -0.02 6.6 14.5 LowPriStkK6 14.66 -0.03 4.3 36.3
EqInc n 8.96 0.01 2.3 15.4 HlthCareSrvPt r n 130.88 1.29 -0.8 35.3
ScTechOppA 38.99 0.09 14.1 15.5 StratInc I 20.89 -0.12 2.2 -1.3 InsHiYld 8.41 -0.09 2.0 -0.4 NwInsghtA 26.87 -0.19 6.9 12.2 Idx2050InsPre 21.03 -0.02 6.6 14.6 LtdTmBdFd n 10.87 -0.03 0.9 -2.3
Grwth n 39.01 0.08 9.8 20.1 ITSvs n 56.37 -0.64 7.3 -7.7
TotRet 10.02 -0.06 1.9 -8.0 Columbia Class I2: TtlRtnBdI 9.52 -0.06 1.0 -4.6 StrInA 10.86 -0.08 1.7 -1.4 Idx2055InsPre 17.30 -0.02 6.6 14.6 Magin n 11.45 -0.01 7.1 17.0
Heritage n 20.33 0.33 11.2 17.4 MdTchDevis n 63.49 -0.24 3.1 19.4
BlackRock Funds III: DivIncom 29.85 -0.03 1.4 27.4 Federated Hermes IS: Fidelity Advisor Fun: Idx2020 Premier 14.67 -0.03 4.1 NS MAMun n 11.18 -0.16 0.6 -4.7
MdCapVal n 16.33 0.11 5.8 29.3 Retail n 17.37 0.13 9.3 25.6
iShS&P500IdxK479.17 -0.96 6.5 26.7 Columbia Class I3: KaufmnSCI 45.57 0.47 9.6 3.5 Idx2025 Premier 16.62 -0.04 4.5 NS Manager40 n 11.82 -0.03 3.7 6.6
OneChMod n 13.54 0.02 5.1 11.1 InterDiscZ 41.87 -0.06 6.1 6.9 Semiconductors r n 18.50 0.02 26.6 78.9
iShUSAggBdIdxK 8.98 -0.05 1.3 -8.6 StraValDivIS 5.92 0.03 2.0 23.4 Idx2030 Premier 17.62 -0.04 4.9 NS Manager60 n 13.62 -0.03 5.0 10.9
Select n 83.26 0.22 10.6 21.4 ContCore I3 26.87 -0.13 6.6 26.0 Fidelity Advisor I: Softwr n 21.63 -0.23 10.0 18.7
BlackRock Funds Inst: UltraShortI 9.01 0.00 0.9 2.1 Idx2035 Premier 19.79 -0.03 5.7 NS MidCap n 39.87 -0.06 6.4 39.2
Ultra n 61.21 0.16 11.0 25.6 DivIncom 29.90 -0.03 1.4 27.6 BalancI 23.96 -0.09 5.7 19.6 Tech n 20.89 0.03 17.1 31.5
Idx2040 Premier 20.18 -0.02 6.5 NS MidCapEnIdx n 16.70 0.12 8.1 29.2
American Century R6: AdvLgCapCore 17.27 0.04 7.3 24.9 Community Capital Tr: Federated Hermes R: ConsvIncmMuni I 9.97 -0.02 0.3 1.3 UtilGr n 102.31 0.84 -3.1 12.1
Idx2045 Premier20.99 -0.02 6.6 NS MidCapStkK 39.92 -0.05 6.5 39.7
MdCapVal 16.35 0.10 5.9 30.6 CAInsMun 11.82 -0.19 1.1 -2.6 CRAQualInvFd 9.40 -0.03 1.1 -8.4 KaufmnR 4.86 0.01 4.1 -11.2 EqGrI 15.70 0.03 6.9 30.5 Fidelity Series:
Idx2050 Premier 21.02 -0.02 6.6 NS MuniInc n 11.98 -0.20 1.3 -4.0
SmCpVal 10.36 0.22 13.3 48.3 EmgMkts 23.73 -0.28 6.6 -2.7 Credit Suisse Common: Federated Hermes R6: FltRatel 9.13 -0.03 2.7 9.5 Idx 2055 Premier 17.29 -0.02 6.6 NS Canada 13.95 -0.23 6.2 30.8
NASDAQ n 148.72 0.94 12.8 24.2
American Funds Cl A: EqtyDivd 19.36 0.12 5.9 26.4 FedInstHYBondL 8.41 -0.09 2.0 -0.5 GrOppI 109.53 -0.15 12.0 18.3 Income n 10.16 -0.04 2.3 0.6 IntMuni Z 9.96 -0.13 0.7 -1.5
ComdtyRet 23.89 -0.43 -5.0 49.8 NewInsights Z 28.16 -0.20 6.9 13.5
FloRateIncPorIns 9.58 -0.03 2.9 9.0 StrValL 5.92 0.03 2.0 23.4 HthCarI 65.53 0.05 2.2 16.9 Fidelity Invest: FidelityAdviAsset:
2020TarRetA 12.44 -0.06 2.2 8.5 NewMill n 42.21 -0.11 6.7 35.6
GlblAlloc 17.26 -0.06 3.8 9.9 D TtlRtnBdL 9.52 -0.05 1.0 -4.5 IntlGr 17.10 -0.08 7.7 8.1 ADVAssetMan60 13.60 -0.04 4.9 11.0
2025TarRetA 13.83 -0.06 2.7 10.0 AggrInt n 22.99 0.05 10.2 7.6 NewMkt n 11.56 -0.11 1.1 -13.7
HiEqInc 28.57 0.19 5.9 28.6 Fidelity: MuniIncI 9.96 -0.13 0.8 -1.9 First Eagle Funds:
2030TarRetA 15.06 -0.05 3.6 11.6 AilSectEq 9.42 -0.04 7.9 33.5 OTC n 14.13 -0.03 10.1 26.0
HlthScOp 68.75 -0.09 -1.8 20.2 Davis Funds A: 500IdxInstPrem n 141.77 -0.28 6.5 26.7 NwInsghtI 28.05 -0.20 6.9 13.1
2035TarRetA 16.15 -0.04 4.5 14.3 AMgr20% n 12.99 -0.03 2.2 1.7 OTC K 14.45 -0.03 10.2 26.4 GlbA 60.94 -0.33 5.1 20.3
MdCpGrEq 33.66 0.34 12.1 5.7 NYVen A n 24.56 -0.07 10.7 10.5 BalancedK6 12.51 -0.04 5.8 20.9 REIncmInst 11.69 -0.04 5.3 2.5
2040TarRetA 16.76 -0.03 5.3 15.5 AMgr50% n 18.46 -0.06 4.2 8.7 Ovrse n 55.09 0.45 9.0 11.2 OverseasA 23.46 -0.13 4.5 9.4
MultiAstIncome 9.85 -0.04 3.8 3.3 Davis Funds C & Y: Contrafund K6 18.07 -0.09 7.5 17.7 StrInI 11.02 -0.08 1.8 -0.7
2045TarRetA 17.10 -0.04 5.5 15.7 AMgr70% n 23.77 -0.05 5.6 13.7 PuritanK 21.40 -0.12 4.5 18.4 FPA Funds:
NatlMuni 10.02 -0.17 1.3 -4.6 EmgMktIdxInstPre n 9.88 -0.13 4.8 -3.4 Total Bd 9.45 -0.05 1.9 -4.9
2050TarRetA 16.74 -0.03 5.7 15.2 NYVenY 25.50 -0.07 10.8 11.3 AMgr85% n 22.02 -0.04 6.5 17.1 Puritn n 21.42 -0.12 4.5 18.1 NwInc n 9.53 -0.01 1.0 0.8
ScTechOppInst 42.89 0.10 14.1 16.4 ExtMktIdxInstPre n 70.55 1.08 11.9 17.1 Fidelity Advisor M:
AmcpA 32.77 0.04 8.9 2.9 Del Invest Instl: AstMgr30R n 11.06 -0.03 3.0 4.0 RealE n 40.55 -0.38 8.6 1.3 FPA Funds Trust:
StratIncOpptyIns 9.28 -0.04 1.4 2.0 FidAdAsset 12.98 -0.04 2.1 1.8 Balanced 23.72 -0.09 5.7 17.8
AMutlA 49.24 -0.14 1.7 24.3 Value 18.78 -0.01 1.9 20.4 Balanc n 24.25 -0.09 5.8 19.8 RealEstInc n 11.75 -0.03 5.4 2.6 FPACres Inst n 35.62 0.29 6.8 22.4
StratMuniOppI 10.43 -0.19 1.2 -6.0 FidAdEm 33.90 -0.40 8.0 NS EqGr 13.10 0.02 6.9 28.5
BondA 11.45 -0.08 1.0 -5.0 Deutsche DWS: BalancedK 24.25 -0.09 5.8 20.1 SAIIntlMinVolInd 10.09 0.03 2.6 -4.2 Franklin A1:
BalA 29.50 -0.21 2.6 12.3 TotRet 10.01 -0.06 1.8 -7.2 FidSAI 8.57 -0.08 1.7 NS GrOppM 97.38 -0.15 11.9 16.5 BluCh n 128.61 0.36 14.4 27.0 SAILTTreBdIdx 7.79 -0.09 2.9 -25.5
BNY Mellon Funds: CoreEq n 27.65 -0.02 6.3 24.1 NwInsghtM 25.09 -0.18 6.8 11.4 CA TF A1 6.76 -0.12 0.9 -5.1
CapIBA 64.52 -0.17 2.4 11.7 FidSAIEmerg 11.40 -0.08 5.1 NS BluChpGr K6 19.82 0.06 14.6 29.2 SAIUSMinVolIndFd 16.85 0.00 1.8 15.5
Aprec n 37.57 -0.34 3.8 26.4 Diamond Hill Funds: Fidelity Advisor Z: Fed TF A1 10.62 -0.19 1.4 -4.7
CapWA 16.22 -0.16 0.6 -14.0 FidSer5 7.82 -0.03 1.6 NS BluChpGrK 129.21 0.37 14.4 27.4 SAIUSQtyIdx 16.07 -0.06 5.0 25.9
CapWGrA 54.45 -0.20 5.6 13.4 Dr500In n 46.42 -0.10 6.4 24.8 LgCapI 30.56 -0.15 5.2 23.3 FidSer0-5 9.33 -0.01 0.5 NS AssetManager50% 18.41 -0.05 4.3 9.0 SCValueI 19.65 0.13 10.7 46.0 HiInc A1 1.64 -0.01 2.4 3.0
CAMun n 11.94 -0.17 1.1 -3.7
EupacA 52.73 -0.09 7.5 5.6 Dreyf n 13.86 -0.07 5.9 31.9 LgCapY 30.58 -0.15 5.2 23.7 FIDSerEmgMkt 8.23 -0.10 6.3 -8.9 AsstMngr70 23.73 -0.05 5.6 13.9 CapAp n 34.02 0.08 6.7 29.8 SmCapDisc n 25.77 0.19 12.3 36.3 HY TF A1 8.74 -0.17 1.6 -4.7
FdInvA 63.85 -0.13 6.0 19.6 DreyMid r Inv n 29.18 0.31 9.8 31.1 LongShortI 26.25 -0.31 5.2 16.3 FidSerInt 8.51 -0.03 1.2 NS CorporateBond 10.23 -0.07 2.3 -8.8 CapDevO n 18.62 -0.11 7.8 34.0 SmlCapO n 12.92 0.15 10.7 28.7 IncomeA1 2.32 0.00 3.1 18.4
GBalA 33.56 -0.13 3.3 5.4 GlFxIncI 19.04 -0.09 1.5 -3.7 Dimensional Fds: FidSerToMarket 13.56 0.01 7.4 25.1 FloatRateHighInc 9.14 -0.03 2.8 9.9 CnvSc n 31.51 0.14 5.9 34.4 SmlCpGrth n 26.15 0.39 10.5 17.4 NY TF A1 9.78 -0.18 1.3 -6.7
GovtA 12.29 -0.06 0.5 -4.1 InstS&PStkIdx I 56.35 -0.11 6.5 26.0 2TGlFxd 9.56 0.01 0.5 -1.9 FIDZroExtMktIx n 11.61 0.13 10.4 25.5 GovtIncome 9.21 -0.04 1.0 -9.4 Contra n 12.81 -0.08 7.5 17.6 SmlCpGrth K6 13.96 0.21 10.5 18.9 US Gov A1 5.12 -0.03 1.0 -8.9
GwthA 54.52 0.04 10.2 17.0 IntlStkI 22.12 -0.03 7.8 10.4 5GlbFxdInc 9.89 -0.01 0.6 -6.1 FIDZroLgCpIx n 14.31 -0.02 6.8 25.7 GrOpp 110.97 -0.15 12.0 18.7 ContraK 12.86 -0.07 7.5 17.9 SmlCpGrth Z 26.42 0.40 10.6 17.9 Utils A1 21.18 0.23 -1.8 6.7
HI TrA 9.14 -0.08 1.7 5.6 IntlStkY 21.84 -0.03 7.9 10.5 DFARlEst 39.46 -0.39 7.6 1.2 Flex 500 Index 17.42 -0.04 6.5 26.8 InvestGradeBd 7.16 -0.04 1.7 -5.7 CpInc n 9.20 -0.08 2.7 11.1 SmlCpVal n 19.66 0.14 10.8 46.0 Franklin Templeton:
HiInMuniA 14.61 -0.26 1.9 -2.9 SmMidCpGrI 25.08 0.34 10.2 6.9 EmgMkt 26.48 -0.31 5.0 3.7 FlexIntIdx 11.98 -0.03 6.8 7.7 NewMktsIncFdZ 11.56 -0.10 1.1 -13.5 DisEq n 48.84 -0.23 6.9 17.6 Srs1000ValIndRet 14.39 -0.04 4.4 22.5 TgtModA 13.45 -0.03 4.0 7.3
ICAA 43.49 -0.18 5.4 23.6 StrgVal I 39.98 -0.26 3.4 48.3 EmgMktSoCoEq 13.32 -0.15 5.5 3.1 FlexUSBdIdx 9.04 -0.05 1.1 -8.8 RE Income 11.69 -0.04 5.4 3.0 DivGth n 29.95 -0.16 3.1 18.9 SrsBlChGroRetail n 11.40 0.04 14.2 30.2 FrankTemp/Frank Adv:
IncoA 23.04 -0.14 1.8 15.8 BNY Mellon Funds Tru: EmgMktVa 27.52 -0.13 4.0 12.4 Freedom2060K 11.77 -0.04 6.9 18.4 StkSelAllCap 59.70 -0.03 8.1 27.6 DivIntl n 39.23 -0.08 7.6 7.5 SrsCommStrt 100.04 -2.03 -5.0 43.9 CA TF Adv 6.74 -0.13 0.7 -4.9
IntBdA 12.46 -0.05 0.5 -2.0 MCMultiStrM 17.19 0.11 8.5 23.4 EmMktCorEq 21.20 -0.23 5.3 8.0 GlexUSIdxInstPre n 13.40 -0.03 6.8 7.6 Fidelity Freedom: DivIntl K6 12.61 -0.02 7.5 9.1 SrsEmrgMkt 16.60 -0.18 6.3 -4.9 CvtScAdv 20.26 0.08 5.2 31.3
IntlGrIncA 34.20 0.09 7.3 8.1 NtlIntmMuni 12.80 -0.18 0.9 -2.6 EmMktSmCp 21.11 -0.12 4.3 17.3 GrowthCompanyK6 17.14 0.05 11.4 39.7 FF2010 n 13.14 -0.05 3.1 3.5 DivIntlK 39.14 -0.08 7.6 7.9 SrsGlobal 13.19 -0.03 6.8 7.6 Dynat Adv 108.04 0.51 11.9 6.9
48 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
Industrials 11:00
11:30
34149.76
34142.33
33978.01
33899.34
33925.12
33996.78
33889.47
33906.33
33624.67
33594.58
NYSE Amer Off
NASD Up
7,585 4,841 5,295 8,700 7,306
3,124,372 2,858,962 3,333,607 1,437,678 2,157,595
35100 12:00 34159.86 33897.85 33994.66 33922.24 33622.43 NASD Off 1,582,560 2,097,172 1,694,530 3,684,987 2,716,501
12:30 34187.43 33979.15 33895.89 33961.11 33713.18 NYSE Arca UP 171,185 159,325 119,594 83,685 134,867
Week's NYSE Arca Off 66,455 160,448 133,604 228,530 168,265
Components Change 1:00 34175.40 34017.84 33935.11 33992.27 33624.15
1:30 34190.15 34127.10 34005.19 33949.10 33640.60 % (QCHA) +.77 +.38 +.62 –.60 –.46
3M -0.89 % (QACH) –.31 +.41 +.41 –.03 +.06
2:00 34237.39 34122.72 34067.57 33977.95 33670.91
34100 % (QCHAQ) +.36 +.19 +1.26 –.65 +.34
American Express -1.95 2:30 34169.89 34119.37 34067.82 34025.02 33742.54
Amgen -1.97 3:00 34160.83 34163.71 34004.84 33983.72 33813.23 Market Advance/Decline Totals
Apple 1.54 3:30 34182.59 34135.36 34048.11 33810.50 33783.08 NYSE NYSE
Boeing -1.23 Weekly Comp. NYSE Amer Nasdaq Arca
Close 34245.93 34089.27 34128.05 33696.85 33826.69
Caterpillar 0.12 Total Issues 3,306 330 5,260 1,969
33100 High (t) 34354.71 34418.54 34202.73 34112.40 33980.16 Advances 1,659 133 2,794 870
Chevron -9.12 Low (t) 33776.11 33757.72 33731.32 33557.66 33321.34 Declines 1,593 188 2,294 1,084
Cisco Systems 3.51 High (a) 34249.60 34331.47 34130.49 34041.16 33846.64 Unchanged 54 9 172 15
Coca-Cola 0.50 Low (a) 33887.39 33827.45 33833.10 33686.59 33517.73 New Highs 240 19 298 42
Disney -2.84 Change +376.66 –156.66 +38.78 –431.20 +129.84 New Lows 32 19 199 34
Dow -1.69 32100 Week ended last Friday compared to previous Friday
Goldman Sachs -2.78 Theoretical (t): High 34418.54 Low 33321.34
Home Depot 1.41 Actual (a): High 34331.47 Low 33517.73 NYSE Composite Daily Breadth
Honeywell International 0.95 Daily Feb 13 14 15 16 17
IBM -0.58 31100 Issues Traded 3,187 3,196 3,194 3,174 3,155
Intel -0.19 Dow Jones 20 Transport (divisor: 0.16343894576034) Advances 2,336 1,483 1,780 800 1,309
Johnson & Johnson -1.76 Declines 735 1,574 1,297 2,264 1,713
Open (t) 14987.92 15179.55 15218.77 15167.13 15122.04 Unchanged 116 139 117 110 133
JPMorgan Chase 1.20 Open (a) 14998.87 15176.46 15282.95 15315.32 15180.41 New Highs 87 102 83 80 61
McDonald's 7.57 10:00 15025.28 15163.93 15234.08 15195.92 15119.11
Merck 0.95 30100 New Lows 13 12 7 15 10
10:30 15036.32 15337.57 15219.26 15223.67 15143.60 Blocks - primary 4,017 4,124 4,473 4,286 4,551
Microsoft -5.04 Total (000) - primary 772,189 833,908 831,717 858,027 929,039
11:00 15102.63 15141.40 15246.61 15274.87 15114.87
Nike Cl B 2.61 Total (000) 3,448,628 3,929,202 4,075,984 4,143,662 4,045,484
11:30 15131.44 15151.15 15250.68 15276.15 15107.12
Procter & Gamble 1.75
12:00 15103.70 15072.64 15324.74 15272.40 15100.51 NYSE American Composite
Salesforce -1.86 29100 12:30 15118.73 15175.23 15320.49 15312.69 15130.36 Daily Feb 13 14 15 16 17
Travelers Cos -1.00
1:00 15118.44 15185.30 15318.32 15345.94 15120.88 Issues Traded 303 309 305 300 298
UnitedHealth Group 4.83
1:30 15125.83 15263.10 15361.66 15313.88 15126.65 Advances 145 141 132 116 117
Verizon Communications 0.21
2:00 15113.45 15242.97 15371.06 15317.52 15094.44 Declines 141 151 155 166 168
Visa Cl A -3.64
Walgreens Boots Alliance 0.21 28100 2:30 15133.29 15242.33 15370.23 15325.90 15089.86 Unchanged 17 17 18 18 13
3:00 15127.98 15326.53 15371.47 15306.73 15114.02 New Highs 6 3 8 5 6
Walmart 2.72 August September October November December January February New Lows 8 5 5 1 8
3:30 15163.26 15338.27 15369.33 15256.11 15117.43
Blocks - primary 94 100 95 112 92
Close 15183.22 15351.85 15399.33 15209.47 15135.87
Total (000) - primary 9,240 9,569 8,469 11,292 13,938
High (t) 15250.31 15421.78 15453.23 15409.97 15259.40 Total (000) 121,541 126,782 122,020 139,635 219,661
Transportation Low (t)
High (a)
14919.91 14959.47 15124.85 15075.02
15186.34 15363.90 15401.44 15356.75
14985.32
15187.78 Nasdaq
16000 Low (a) 14947.71 15041.93 15160.05 15144.82 15046.45 Daily Feb 13 14 15 16 17
Week's Change +140.29 +168.63 +47.48 –189.86 –73.60 Issues Traded 4,808 4,752 4,797 4,807 4,712
Components Change Advances 2,856 2,109 2,870 1,521 2,336
15500 Theoretical (t): High 15453.23 Low 14919.91 Declines 1,704 2,409 1,676 3,045 2,127
Alaska Air Group -0.49 Actual (a): High 15401.44 Low 14947.71 Unchanged 248 234 251 241 249
American Airlines Group 0.08 New Highs 81 86 91 96 88
Avis Budget Group 26.02
15000 New Lows 67 83 63 67 76
CH Robinson Worldwide -1.95 Dow Jones 15 Utilities (divisor: 1.27924906167720) Blocks - primary 31,168 31,940 33,599 34,544 35,534
CSX -0.36 14500 Total (000) 4,752,885 5,032,435 5,056,648 5,159,416 4,925,239
Open (t) 946.60 950.35 940.92 937.95 943.41
Delta Air 0.19 NYSE Arca Composite
Open (a) 946.09 949.74 941.69 941.83 943.34
Expeditors Intl of Wash -0.56 Daily Feb 13 14 15 16 17
FedEx 0.93 14000 10:00 949.76 947.97 943.43 931.90 946.57
10:30 950.55 954.84 942.12 933.24 946.07 Issues Traded 1,731 1,749 1,742 1,752 1,740
JB Hunt Transport -2.25 Advances 1,428 899 850 320 717
11:00 951.74 945.89 939.48 936.68 948.06
JetBlue Airways 0.30 13500 Declines 284 816 864 1,415 1,001
Kirby Corp -0.20 11:30 951.41 946.56 941.09 937.82 949.65
Unchanged 19 34 28 17 22
Landstar System 2.56 12:00 950.88 941.61 942.63 940.21 950.81 New Highs 13 19 15 15 6
Matson 1.75 13000 12:30 949.98 943.66 941.54 942.70 955.39 New Lows 3 8 13 11 13
Norfolk Southern -14.46 1:00 950.66 942.71 942.84 944.89 953.90 Blocks - primary 1,138 1,422 1,211 1,500 1,487
Old Dominion Freight 5.84 1:30 950.08 947.04 943.91 944.15 953.14 Total (000) - primary 238,476 321,969 255,011 315,233 304,034
12500 2:00 952.56 946.36 946.21 943.44 951.19 Total (000) 1,306,348 1,614,674 1,377,235 1,645,678 1,575,528
Ryder System 2.15
Southwest Airlines 0.79 2:30 953.03 946.68 947.38 944.81 953.53
12000 3:00 950.89 949.22 948.29 944.39 954.61
Union Pacific
United Airlines
-3.91
0.77 3:30
Close
948.01
951.80 945.00
948.31 948.17
950.07
942.96
943.21
956.11
953.61
Other Market Indexes
United Parcel Service B -2.01 Daily 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17
11500 High (t) 954.91 956.51 951.20 948.04 959.09
August September October November December January February Low (t) 944.80 939.45 937.90 928.35 938.25 NYSE Amer Comp4283.47 4278.17 4281.63 4228.42 4152.97
High (a) 953.65 956.00 950.46 946.11 957.82 AmMajorMkt 3096.65 3096.70 3088.44 3043.61 3042.64
15 Book Book
s
DXY (103.88)
10
Am Exp
Earns Divs. Value
9.84 2.08 29.14 Johnson&John
Earns Divs. Value
6.74 4.52 28.16 Investor Sentiment Readings New Listings
5 Amgen 12.11 7.95 12.00 JPMorgChase 12.08 4.00 88.07 NYSE
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market
Apple 5.89 0.92 3.84 McDonalds 8.35 5.52 (6.17) Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market None
0 Boeing (8.29) Suspended (25.47) Merck Co 5.71 2.80 15.11 bottoms.
EURO in $ Caterpillar 12.65 4.71 30.76 Microsoft 9.00 2.60 22.31 Last Week 2 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago NYSE American
-5
s Chevron Corp 18.28 5.77 72.06 Nike Inc 3.55 1.255 9.73
s Consensus Index None
-10 Cisco Sys 2.73 1.52 9.79 Proc Gam 5.70 3.6532 19.11
YEN in $ Coca Cola 2.20 1.74 5.32 3M Co 10.15 5.97 26.31
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 66% 65% 64%
Nasdaq
-15 Disney Walt 1.82 0.00 48.71 Salesforce.com 0.28 0.00 58.78
Dow 6.24 2.80 24.71 Travelers Cos 11.75 3.67 119.76 Bullfrog AI (BFRG)
-20 AAII Index
Goldman Sachs 30.06 9.00 297.50 UnitedHealthGrp 21.19 6.40 76.26 NFT Gaming (NFTG)
-25 Home Depot 16.59 7.60 (1.64) Verizon 5.06 2.585 19.48 Bullish 34.1% 37.5% 29.9%
Honeywell 7.27 3.97 27.12 Visa 7.15 1.575 16.32
M A M J J A S O N D J F
Source: Tullett Prebon
IBM
Intel
6.95
1.96
6.59 21.05
1.46 23.44
Walgreens
Wal-mart
(3.44) 1.9175 27.06
3.24 2.24 30.15
Bearish
Neutral
28.8
37.1
25.0
37.5
34.6
35.5 Trading
Transportation Stocks Market Vane Suspended
NYSE
Bullish Consensus 43% 44% 43%
AlaskaAirGroup 0.43 Suspended 30.19 Kirby Corp 2.03 Nil 48.02 Avaya (AVYA)
Coming U.S. Auctions 144 Filings AmericanAirlines
AvisBudgetGrp
(0.01) Suspended (11.33)
57.18 Nil (3.93)
Landstar Sys
Matson Inc
12.14
33.91
1.10 22.87
1.22 40.67
TIM Group Market Sentiment NYSE American
None
C.H. Robinson 7.30 2.26 15.65 Norf Southern 13.90 5.07 56.80 Indicator 49.3% 44.9% 48.7%
Yields (%) SEC Form 144 must be filed by holders of restricted securities (also called letter stock) who intend to Nasdaq
CSX Corp 1.94 0.40 6.13 Old Dominion 12.18 1.20 32.00
sell shares. Shares Indicated: the number to be sold. Sales Date: the approximate date of the sale. Sources: Consensus Inc.; American Association of FFBW (FFBW)
Monday When Issued* Last Auction (Sometimes shares aren't sold, even though their owner has filed a Form144.) Source: Thomson Delta Air Lines 2.04 Suspended 6.07 Ryder Sys 4.18 2.44 52.02
Individual Investors; Market Vane; TIM Group Partner Comms (PTNR)
Reuters Expeditors Int'l 9.52 1.34 20.90 Southwest Air 0.80 Nil 17.59
Reed's (REED)
FedEx 12.73 4.20 95.98 Un Pacific 11.22 5.08 22.17 Velodyne Lidar (VLDR)
Tuesday Shares Sale Hunt (JB) 9.20 1.62 29.67 UPS 13.20 6.18 16.38
Company Sym Indicated $ Value Date Seller Title
$60.0 bil
$48.0 bil
3-month
6-month
4.799
5.022
4.680
4.840 Freshworks FRSH 857,349 14,514,919 2/9/23 Mathrubootham,Rathnagirish AF
JetBlue Air (1.12) Nil 12.03 United Airlines 2.17 Nil 15.53
Arms Index Name
$34.0 bil 1-year 5.055 4.470 Fortinet FTNT 601,594 35,879,066 2/9/23 Perche, Patrice AF Utility Stocks The Arms index, also known as the short term trading index,
$42.0 bil 2-year 4.634 4.139 Confluent CFLT 400,000 9,856,000 2/9/23 Tomlinson, Steffan AF
is a number derived by dividing one quotient into another
quotient. The numerator in the index is the number of
advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks.
Changes
Oak Street Health OSH 400,000 13,629,502 2/7/23 Price, Geoffrey O AES Corp. (0.47) 0.6399 2.96 Exelon 2.19 1.35 35.13 NYSE
Wednesday As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the
Am Elec 4.83 3.15 44.49 FirstEnergy 0.57 1.56 15.21 composite volume of advancing stocks divided by the None
Pagerduty PD 275,000 8,585,500 2/9/23 Tejada, Jennifer AF composite volume of declining stocks.
AmericanWaterWorks 4.51 2.5675 40.18 NextEra Energy 2.09 1.70 18.95
$43.0 bil 5-year 4.047 3.530 Intapp INTA 200,000 6,702,000 2/8/23 Moran, Charles AF NYSE American
Atmos Energy 5.71 2.84 59.71 Xcel Energy 3.06 1.95 28.70 Daily 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17
Ugi UGI 160,000 6,480,000 2/6/23 Walsh, John FO Con Ed 4.78 3.18 56.60 Pub Sv Ent 2.70 2.16 28.65 None
Thursday
Elf Beauty ELF 158,960 11,085,870 2/6/23 Amin, Tarang AF DominionEnergy 1.09 2.67 31.51 Sempra Energy 7.13 4.58 79.17 Nasdaq
NYSE .98 .81 .73 .89 1.32
$35.0 bil 7-year 3.958 3.517 Travelers Companies TRV 150,829 28,402,609 2/8/23 Schnitzer, Alan CEO
Duke Energy 3.32 4.00 61.55 Southn Co. 1.36 2.72 25.36 Verde Clean Fuels (VGAS),
NYSE American 3.47 1.55 1.33 2.60 .43 formerly CENAQ Energy
Edison Int'l 1.90 2.8375 36.57
* As of Friday afternoon. Borgwarner BWA 150,000 7,388,214 2/13/23 Lissalde, Frederic O Nasdaq .85 .64 .87 1.28 1.38 (CENQ)
February 20, 2023 BARRON’S 51
Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Industry Groups CBOE Put / Call Ratio Foreign Exchange
Foreign
Currency
Foreign
Currency
U.S. $ in
Foreign
U.S. $ in
Foreign
Overstock.com (Q4) 0.05 0.36 Discount Rate (NY) 4.75 4.75 0.25
Sentiment Only includes new reports.
Economic Growth and Investment
Latest
Date
Latest Preceding
Data Period
Year YroYr
Ago % Chg
Latest Latest Preceding Year YroYr
TH
Prime Rate (base) 7.75 7.75 3.25
Date Data Period Ago % Chg
Indicator Durable manufacturing (NAICS) a, Jan 102.1 r101.3 103.1 –0.97
Trade
American Electric Power (Q4)
Autodesk (Q4)
0.99
1.81
0.98
1.50
Fed Funds Rate
Bullish
3 months 4.83 4.73 0.16
Business sales, (mil. $) Dec 1,819.04 r1,830.70 1,710.34 6.36 (Earnings are diluted and report dates are tentative. All fore- 6 months 5.08 5.03 0.20
Construction casts and historical numbers exclude extraordinary items by
Instinet Research Redbook Avg. (monthly %) Feb 11 –0.20 8.03 –6.83 …. accounting definitions.)
New housing permits, (thous. units) Jan 1,339 r1,337 1,841 –27.27 Libor Interbank Rate
Baltic Dry Index Feb 17 538 602 1,886 –71.47 Source: FactSet
New housing starts, (thous. units) Jan 1,309 r1,371 1,666 –21.43
Current Sentiment Retail store sales, (bil. $) Jan 697.0 r676.9 655.2 6.38 1 month 4.59 4.58 0.17
Other Indicators 3 months 4.92 4.87 0.48
Inventories
Barron’s 50-Stock Average
69.7%
6 months 5.24 5.13 0.78
Business inventories, (bil. $) Dec 2,483.52 r2,475.04 2,203.65 12.70 Citi Research Panic–Euphoria Reading Feb 17 –0.06 –0.07 0.03 …. 12 months 5.64 5.48 1.29
Domestic crude oil, (thous. bbls) Comm. (Excl. Lease Stck) Feb 10 471,394 455,111 411,508 14.55 Index of coincident indicators h Jan 109.5 r109.3 107.6 1.77 This index is a weighted average of 50 leading issues. Useful in secu-
Gasoline, (thous. bbls) Feb 10 241,922 239,606 247,061 –2.08 Index of lagging indicators h Jan 118.5 r118.3 110.3 7.43 rity valuation. Source: Barron's Stats Foreign Prime Rates
Last Week Inventory–to–sales ratio (Business) Dec 1.37 1.35 1.29 6.20 Index of leading indicators h Jan 110.3 r110.6 119.5 –7.70
Feb 16 Feb 9 Feb Yr-to-Yr Canada 6.70 6.70 2.45
Orders Coincident to lagging ratio h Jan 0.92 r0.92 0.98 –6.12 Germany 3.00 3.00 0.00
2023 2023 2022 % Chg
75.3%
No Activity for this Week a-1997 equals 100. b-1982-84 equals 100. c-1982 equals 100. f-1996 equals 100. h- Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
benchmark revision, 2016 equals 100. r-Revised. S&P 500 Index 4090.41 4081.50 4412.62 –7.30 Switzerland 1.50 1.50 0.00
Barron’s 50 Index 11402.36 11321.73 11369 0.29 Britain 4.00 4.00 0.50
Projected quarterly earn 144.41 147.56 142.71 1.19 Other Money Rates
2 Weeks ago Fannie Mae Home Loan:
Annualized projected earn 577.64 590.22 570.84 1.19
30-Year Fixed Conv 6.13 5.88 3.44
American Debt and Deficits Adjustable Mortgage Rates Annualized projected P/E 19.74 19.18 19.9 –0.92
81.4%
Bank money market-z 0.26 0.27 0.07
Five-year average earn 480.86 482.12 446.53 7.69 Interest Checking-z 0.06 0.06 0.03
Latest Preceding Year Ago Yr over Yr Five-year average P/E 23.71 23.48 25.5 –6.87 6-Month Certif-z 1.01 0.98 0.12
Feb 17 Feb 10 Yr. Ago YOY % Chg 12-Month Certif-z 1.50 1.42 0.19
Report Report Report % Chg
3 Weeks ago Year-end earn 603.90 607.05 540.28 11.78 30 Month Accounts-z 1.17 1.19 0.25
1 Year Treas Bills 4.87 4.70 0.98 396.94
Federal Budget Deficit (bil. $)-a 1,330FY'25 1,201FY'24 1,154FY'23 …. 2 Year Treas Notes 4.47 4.19 1.42 214.79 Year-end P/E 18.88 18.65 21.0 –10.28 5-Year Certificates-z 1.17 1.18 0.35
Current Market Exposure: Budget Surplus/Deficit (bil. $)-b, January –38.78 –85.00 +118.70 -132.67 3 Year Treas Notes 4.13 3.86 1.65 150.30 Year-end earns yield, % 5.30 5.36 4.8 11.42 U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
100% Equities, 0% Bonds, 0% Trade Deficit (bil. $, sa)-c, December –67.42 r-61.02 –78.87 -14.52 5 Year Treas Notes 3.86 3.59 1.84 109.78
Cash Treasury Gross Public Debt. (bil. $)-d 31,454.9 31,454.6 30,026.3 4.76 10 Year Treas Notes 3.67 3.48 1.95 88.21 Best grade bond yields, % 4.51 4.18 2.35 92.32
Long-Term (5yrs+) 2.10 2.10 0.10
Treasury Statutory Debt Limit (bil. $)-d 31,381.5 31,381.5 …. …. 20 Year Treas Bds 3.88 3.74 2.31 67.97 Bond yields/stock ylds, % 0.85 0.78 0.49 72.79
Source: Delta Investment Consumer Installment Debt (bil. $)-e, December 4,775.9 r4,764.3 4,434.4 7.70
Management 11th District % Dec Discontinued .... 0.223 .... c-Annualized yields, adjusted for constant maturity, reported by the Federal
FHFA PMMS+ 7.07 7.07 0.87 712.64 Actual year-end divs 239.22 238.82 223.72 6.92 Reserve on a weekly average basis. Sources: Tullett Prebon information, Ltd.
www.deltaim.com, (415) Sources: a-Office of Management and Budget, b-Monthly Treasury Statement, c-Monthly Commerce Dept. Factset. z-Bankrate.com.
249-6337 Report, d-Daily Treasury Statement, e-Monthly Federal Reserve Release. Fed annualized yields adjusted for constant maturity. Actual yr-end divs yld, % 2.10 2.11 1.97 6.58
52 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
Week’s GenesisUnicornA
GlobalinkInvt
GlycoMimetics
S&T Bancorp
Savara
BlinkCharging
BlueStarFoods
BridgewaterBcshs
Procaps
RaniTherap
RBB Bancorp
Ducommun
EG Acqn A
elfBeauty
LambWeston
LearnCWInvtA
LiveOakMobilityA
Rockwell
RyderSystem
VistaEnergy
VitesseEnergy
VoyaFinancial
SchultzeSpecII A SDCLEDGEAcqn
New Highs and GrAeroportuario
GrandCanyonEduc
scPharm
SeaportGlblAcqnII
BullfrogAI
BusFirstBcshs
RealGoodFood
ReShapeLife
ESM Acqn A
Eaton
MinisoGroup
MSG Sports
ST Ener I A
ScorpioTankers
VulcanMatls
Wabtec
Lows GreenVisorI A
GrowthforGoodA
GX Acqn II A
SelectiveIns
ServiceProperties
ShuaaPtrsI A
Canoo
CapitalBancorp
Celularity
RevelationBio
RockyMtnChoc
Safe&Green
ErmenegildoZegna
EVeMobilityA
EvercoreA
MagnumOpusA
ManchesterUnited
Materion
SculptorAcqnIA
Shell
ShoulderUpTechA
Watsco B
Watsco
WattsWater
NYSE H World SiliconLab CerberusCyber SangomaTechs Expro MetalsAcqn SonicAutomotive WaverleyCap1 A
H&E Equipment SilverspacA ChinaSXTPharm SeaStarMedical FastAcqnII A ModineMfg Stantec WescoIntl
240
New Highs
32
New Lows
HealthcareAI A
IBEX
Imara
SkillfulCrafts
SkydeckAcqnA
SkywardSpecIns
Citizens&Northern
CN Energy
CNS Pharm
ShiftPixy
SiNtxTech
SiriusXM
FedAgriMtg C
FomentoEconMex
ForestRoadII A
Moog A
Moog B
MorganStanley
Starrett A
StateStreet
Stevanato
WhiteMtnIns
WorldFuelSvcs
Yum!Brands
indieSemicon SoundPointA ComSovereign SmartforLife FreedomI A MotiveCapII A SunCokeEnergy NEW LOWS
Nasdaq Innospec SoYoungIntl ContraFect Soligenix Frontline MyovantSciences TFI Intl
Sono FusionAcqnIIA NGL Energy AMTD Digital
InsightEnt SP Plus Cronos TXO Energy AmerStratInvt
298
New Highs
199
New Lows
InspiredEnt
Intapp
InteractiveBrkrs
SpringwaterSpec
SPS Commerce
SterlingInfr
Cryptyde
CumulusMedia
DesignTherap
SorrentoTherap
Southland
Staffing360
GMS
GSquaredIIA
GeneralElec
NOW
NaborsEnerA
NaturalResPtrs
TechnipFMC
TeckResourcesB
Teekay
Azul
BRF
Braskem
InterDigital StoneX DigitalAlly StructureTherap GenieEnergy Noble
TeekayTankers CreditSuisse
Intevac SuperMicroComp DigitalBrands T2Biosystems GenworthFin NorthAmConstr
NYSE American Terex D-WaveQuantum
IntuitiveMachinesA SVF Invt 2 DragonflyEnergy TayshaGene Graco NorthernGenIII
Thermon DominionEner
GoldResource VitaCoco Source: Dealogic LLC, New York City; (212) 577-4400.
ChainBridgeIA MontereyCapA JupiterWellness Earnings-
WeatherfordIntl AllisonTransm
GranTierraEner Related
Network1Techs
ChengheAcqnA
Chuy's
MoonLakeImm
MuscleMaker
WelsbachTech
WillScotMobile
KaivalBrands
KiromicBiopharma
AltaEquipment
AltC Acqn
Company Date Time Period Federal Reserve Data Bank
Nuburu Allegion PLC February 22 8:00AM Q4
CirrusLogic Nathan's Wingstop Knightscope Ameriprise One week ended Feb 15:
Oragenics Alliant Energy February 24 10:00AM Q4
ClimateRockA Neovasc Winmark LanzaTechGlobal AndrettiAcqnA Alpha Metallurgical Resources February 23 10:00AM Q4 Prev. Year
Parts Id Member Bank
ClimbGlbl NerdWallet WorldwideWebbA LibertySirius A ApolloStratII A ANSYS February 23 8:30AM Q4 Week Ago
PolymetMining Reserve Chgs. (Mil. $) Change Change
CloverLeafA NEXTracker XPACAcqn LibertySirius B ArctosNorthA APA February 23 11:00AM Q4
RingEnergy LibertySirius C Autodesk February 23 5:00PM Q4
CodorusValleyBncp NFTGaming YottaAcqn ArdmoreShipping U.S. Gov't securities:
SatixFyComms NortheastCmBncp LichenChina Booking February 23 4:30PM Q4
Cowen AresAcqnA Caesars Entertainment February 21 5:00PM Q4 Bought outright 8,019,141 -5,098 -398,695
Tellurian CRA Intl NorthViewAcqn NEW LOWS Lilium AristaNetworks CBRE February 23 8:30AM Q4 Federal agency secur:
Nasdaq CredoTech NubiaBrandA 9F LionGroup AthenaTechII A Charles River Laboratories InternationalFebruary 22 8:30AM Q4
Bought outright 2,347 .... ....
CresceraCapA O2MicroIntl AbeonaTherap LionheartIII A AutoNation Coterra Energy February 23 10:00AM Q4
NEW HIGHS Crocs OkyoPharma AcelRxPharm LogicMark BP DaVita February 22 5:00PM Q4 Reserve bank credit:
7AcqnA Diamondback Energy February 22 9:00AM Q4
CVD Equipment OlympicSteel AdamasOne LucyScientific BadgerMeter Primary Credit 4,840 +764 +4,082
Domino's Pizza February 23 10:00AM Q4
AchariVenturesI DataKnightsA Opera AdicetBio LyellImmuno BancoBilbaoViz DTE Energy February 23 9:00AM Q4
Secondary Credit .... .... ....
AetheriumAcqnA Diodes OrangeCtyBncp AerwinsTech MGO Global BanyanAcqnA eBay February 22 5:00PM Q4 Seasonal Credit .... .... ....
AffinityBncshs Affimed MidatechPharma EOG Resources February 24 10:00AM Q4 Float -162 -4 -23
Disruptive I A OReillyAuto Belden
AgroFresh Evergy February 24 9:00AM Q4 Other F.R. Assets 45,838 +587 +3,756
DPCapAcqnIA Paccar AkamaiTech MineralysTherap BiglariA
Extra Space Storage February 23 1:30PM Q4 Total Fed Credit # 8,393,076 -4,510 -465,469
AhrenAcqnA EastRscsAcqnA Paya AlarumTech MobiquityTechs BlackMountainA Genuine Parts February 23 11:00AM Q4 Gold stock 11,041 .... ....
AllegroMicro EdocAcqnA PDF Solutions AlerusFinancial MountainCrestIII BlackSpadeA Ingersoll Rand February 21 8:00AM Q4 SDR Certif. Accounts 5,200 .... ....
AlliedMotionTech EncoreWire PearlHldgsAcqnA AllarityTherap Movella BlueRiverA Intuit February 23 4:30PM Q2 Treas. Curr. Outst. 51,555 +14 +728
AlphaHlthIII A EvergreenA PepGen AlpineAcqn MultiMetaVerse Boeing Iron Mountain February 23 8:30AM Q4 Total 8,479,486 -4,675 -466,471
AlphaStarAcqn AlpineSummit Keurig Dr Pepper February 23 8:00AM Q4
FidelityD&D Perma-Fix MySize BorrDrilling Currency in circ 2,297,960 +527 +66,015
Live Nation Entertainment February 23 5:00PM Q4
Alphatec FinServ II A PetVivo Alset NanoVibronix Bowlero LKQ February 23 8:00AM Q4
Treas. Cash Hldgs 99 +3 +68
AltEnergyA FirstReserveA PineTechA AltamiraTherap NemauraMedical Treas. Fed Deposits 490,379 -2,898 -202,162
BrightSphere Moderna February 23 8:00AM Q4
Foreign Fed Deposits 9,438 +3 +3,648
AltraIndlMotion Fiserv PlainsAllAmPipe Aptorum NFTGaming C5AcqnA Newmont February 23 10:00AM Q4
NiSource February 22 11:00AM Q4 Other Fed Deposits 192,121 -6,573 -56,983
AnalogDevices FiveBelow PlainsGP AridisPharm Nyxoah CGI
Nordson February 21 8:30AM Q1 Other FR liab/cap 16,036 -5,537 -31,676
AnthemisDigA FluxPower PrincetonBncp ArqitQuantum OceanBiomedical Cabot Total factors 5,438,448 -8,128 +292,464
NVIDIA February 22 5:00PM Q4
AnzuSpecialI A ForumMergerIV A ProfDiversity AscentSolar OceanPal Cars.com Pioneer Natural Resources February 23 10:00AM Q4 Reserves F.R. banks 3,041,038 +3,454 -758,935
AppFolio FranklinElec ProgressSoftware AssetEntities Ocugen ChurchillVII A Public Service Enterprise February 21 11:00AM Q4 Fgn hold U.S. debt 3,346,062 +14,010 -101,827
ArchCapital FranklinWireless PrometheusBio AteaPharm OncoSecMed CleanHarbors Public Storage February 22 12:00PM Q4
Arhaus FreedomHolding QuinStreet AtlisMotor OpGen Copa Quanta Services February 23 9:00AM Q4
Targa Resources February 22 11:00AM Q4 Reserve Aggr (Mil. $) Latest Prev. Month % Year
AriszAcqnA FrontierAcqnA QuiptHomeMed authID Optinose Coty Teleflex February 23 8:00AM Q4
Month Ended Dec Month Month Chg. Ago
ArogoCapA FSD Pharma Rambus AytuBioPharma P3HealthPartners Cummins VICI Properties February 24 9:00AM Q4 Total Reserves: 3,107,300 3,126,200 -0.60 4,187,900
ArtemisStratInvt FtacHeraA RF Acqn A BerkeleyLights PAVmed DHT Walmart February 21 8:00AM Q4 NonborrowedRes 3,090,000 3,107,000 -0.55 4,149,900
AryaSciencesIV FTAI Aviation RibbonComms BiondVaxPharm PLBY Group Donaldson Warner Bros Discovery February 23 4:30PM Q4 BorrowedReserves 17,300 19,178 -9.79 38,082
Assertio Games&EsportsA RushEnt A Bioventus PortageBiotech DonnelleyFin Source: CCBN, www.ccbn.com Monetary Base 5,405,400 5,418,700 -0.25 6,413,100
54 BARRON’S February 20, 2023
O T H E R VO I C E S
Economists like to say there’s no such thing as a
free lunch. But when it comes to fiscal arithmetic,
U.S. taxpayers haven’t had to settle the bill.
Debt-Limit
Fights Risk
The Fiscal
Free Lunch
By ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY
AND HANNO LUSTIG
Krishnamurthy is the John S. Osterweis professor of finance at
the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Lustig is the school’s
Mizuho Financial Group professor of finance.
T
he last time the U.S.
government posted
a budget surplus,
Michael Jordan was
still playing in the creases should be considered as well. taxes will have to be adjusted. more fragile. We have more than twice
National Basketball That is the fiscal reality. Clearly, the federal budget process as much debt outstanding: $31 trillion,
Association. That Economists like to say there’s no isn’t working properly. The U.S. gov- compared with $14 trillion in 2011. The
was 2001, the first year of George W. such thing as a free lunch. But when it ernment hit its statutory limit for debt Treasury has to roll over 30% of that
Bush’s presidency. Since then, the comes to fiscal arithmetic, U.S. taxpay- in January. House Republicans say debt, more than $9 trillion, during the
federal government has been running ers haven’t had to settle the bill. The they won’t raise the limit without next 12 months. If investors become
ever larger deficits. And there is no Treasury has been able to borrow at overall spending cuts. Is threatening a nervous about the Treasury’s ability to
fiscal relief in sight. The nonpartisan especially low rates because it is the default by not raising the debt ceiling do so, the resulting volatility could
Congressional Budget Office projects provider of the world’s safe assets— the right way for Congress to kick- undercut the appeal of Treasuries as
that federal deficits will average 3.5% that is, the dollar is the world’s reserve start the inevitable fiscal adjustment? safe assets. And the Fed’s ability to
of gross domestic product over the currency. Investors around the globe Not unless we want to deny future intervene in Treasury markets, as it did
next three decades—not accounting use Treasuries as foreign-exchange generations the fiscal free lunch we in March 2020, is now limited by its
for interest payments. Including inter- reserves and as the collateral that en- have enjoyed for the past few decades. commitment to shrinking its balance
est, deficits are projected to average sures the smooth working of interna- If the federal government defaults, sheet in the face of persistent inflation.
7.9% of GDP by 2052, pushing the tional financial markets. Treasuries global investors may start to look for Paradoxically, the bond market’s
ratio of debt to GDP up to 195%. are the benchmark against which alternatives to Treasuries as safe as- insouciance may contribute to more
When the CBO makes these spend- other securities are measured. We esti- sets. That would make deficit projec- brinkmanship on Capitol Hill. If Con-
ing and tax revenue projections, it mate that this is worth up to 1% annu- tions even worse by increasing the gress starts a fiscal correction only
assumes that current laws will remain ally in lower costs of borrowing. In cost of borrowing. when the bond market begins to price
in place. But deficits eventually will other words, the U.S. government’s in fiscal risk, but investors continue
F
have to be paid down. What the CBO borrowing rates would be 1% higher or now, financial markets don’t to price Treasuries as perfectly safe,
projections really tell us is that even- in a world where the dollar wasn’t the seem concerned about this it creates political incentives for more
tually Congress will have to change reserve currency. scenario. Treasuries are still fiscal recklessness on both sides of
MAILBAG
Send letters to [email protected]. To be considered for Numbers by Barron’s, which breaks down the markets,
publication, correspondence must bear the writer’s name, is available wherever you listen to podcasts.
address, and phone number. Letters are subject to editing.
AI, without analyzing the data Fabled Economist Still Favors Index than management projections.
employed to derive its outputs, is an Funds Over Stockpickers,” Interview, Peter Carmack
extremely dangerous analytic tool. Feb. 9). I clipped this article and Kansas City, Mo.
But as in most cases, Americans placed it in my copy of his book.
want a quick fix to drive their deci- Kudos to Malkiel for teaching me
sion-making, without any mental to tune out the noise and focus on Paramount Global
stress, and AI perfectly fits the bill. time-tested simplicity.
Roland Giuntini Joel Goodman To the Editor:
On Barrons.com Centennial, Colo. I have been a Paramount Global
shareholder for about three years.
It has been a bumpy ride, but I am
AI Hullabaloo Net Buyback Yield holding on (“The Redstone Family’s
Drama Has Plagued Paramount. Can
To the Editor: To the Editor: It Escape a Century of Dysfunction?”
I agree with Tae Kim (“Let’s Stop Lawrence C. Strauss makes a series Commentary, Feb. 10).
Pretending—ChatGPT Isn’t That of compelling points in “Dividends There are a number of reasons to
Smart,” Feb. 10). Given all of the hul- and Share Buybacks Could Fuel High be intrigued by Paramount’s stock.
labaloo that has taken place recently ‘Total Yield.’ How to Invest” (Income In May 2022, Warren Buffett’s Berk-
over AI, ChatGPT is somewhere be- Investing, Feb. 9). What isn’t empha- shire Hathaway divulged an opening
tween much ado about nothing and sized enough is that the net buyback investment of 69 million shares for
the greatest story ever told. yield often isn’t nearly as high as it $2.6 billion. A scant six months later,
At this stage of development, it’s seems. the investment had grown to 91 mil-
simply rehashing things that are al- Stock-based compensation often lion shares, while the overall value
ready available on the internet, but eats up the lion’s share of the net had declined to $1.7 billion. A year
Deep
grammed. holders who care about their per- $1.8 billion. As a shareholder, I was
For example, if you ask about the share ownership of the underlying disappointed that no special distri-
circumstances surrounding Adolf businesses don’t benefit nearly as bution was made.
Hitler’s death, you will get the facts much as management would like you Following the value investing
Database
as they are known. However, ask to believe. theory of Benjamin Graham and Da-
Chat to write a limerick about Hitler Simply go back five years, look at vid Dodd, note that Paramount cur-
and you get the equivalent of 2001: the 10-K, and compare it to the most rently sells for about a 35% discount
A Space Odyssey’s HAL 9000 saying, recent 10-Q and see if the actual from reported book value.
“I’m sorry Dave, but I don’t think I share count has decreased. What you The stock currently pays about
To the Editor: can do that.” Evil people apparently will find is almost always a disap- a 4.5% dividend. For two years
For questions related to science and technology, Micro- cannot be associated with any form pointment. The five companies that running, Mario Gabelli has included
soft’s Bing is a joke (“Inside the AI Frenzy,” Cover of humor. Strauss mentions average a net buy- Paramount among his favorite picks
Story, Feb. 10). Alphabet’s Google may have faltered on My real concern about AI is that back yield of 5.48%. The actual re- in the annual Barron’s Roundtable.
answering a question regarding exoplanets, but Chat- the bad guys will despoil it in the duction in their share counts over the However, so far, the shorts have
GPT didn’t do much better when asked about funda- same manner that they have essen- past five years (taking into consider- ruled the day. The total short interest
mental rocket science. I wouldn’t underestimate tially ruined social media. ation shares issued for acquisitions) stands at about 15% of the stock
Google’s deep database, from which most searches Without some form of control over amounts to 1.95%. outstanding.
are answered. AI, it will surely become yet another Be mindful of the historical track Geoff Glatt
Narayana Mysore huge societal problem. record. It is generally more valuable Harrisburg, Pa.
On Barrons.com Arthur M. Shatz
Astoria, N.Y.
To the Editor:
SAVE
$190
UNCORK SIX
Here’s a snapshot: We’ll also include a bottle of
Château Marquisat de Binet,
Ultra-Rare Napa Cabernet
FINE WINES
23-year-old Library Release from a Napa icon a mature Montagne-Saint-
Émilion from the legendary
90-Point Brunello Riserva
Aged eight years and drinking beautifully 2010 vintage—plus a stylish
Dartington Crystal decanter.
Elite Estate Margaux
PLUS BONUS GIFTS FOR Gold medalist from a Cru Classé château
100% money-back guarantee applies to each wine. Offer subject to availability. Savings are off retail price. All orders fulfilled by licensed retailers/wineries and applicable taxes
are paid. You must be at least 21 years old to order. Delivery available to AZ, CA, CT, DC, FL, IA, IL, IN (limited delivery area), LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, ND, NC, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, In partnership with
OR, SC, TX, VA, WA, WI, WV, and WY. Full terms and conditions online. Void where prohibited by law. Barron’s Cellar is operated independently of Barron’s news department.