Risk and Exposure by Apte

Investments Lecture 4: Hedging Interest Rate Risk Exposure Traditional Methods
Philip H. Dybvig Washington University in Saint Louis Matching maturities
Eective duration
Duration
Multiple duration measures
Copyright c Philip H. Dybvig 2000
Interest rate risk exposure

Everyone who trades in interest-sensitive securities is (or should be concerned about their interest rate risk exposure. This is given dierent names in dierent contexts, but in modern terminology it all falls under the umbrella of risk management. Investment policy or guidelines Immunization Value at risk Market neutral
Duration and eective duration Hedge ratio (beta or delta)
Some stylized properties of interest rate risk

Rates tend to move together
A single factor model is a good rst approximation Short rates move more than long rates Interest rate volatility moves around
Volatility is on average higher when rates are higher Rates are on average higher when ination is higher
Matching cash ows

Advantages: Simple
Reliable Disadvantages: Cannot hedge complex bonds or derivatives May over-hedge and incur high costs
No obvious corresponding risk measure
In-class exercise: matching cash ows

You are managing the nal years of a pension fund. There are three remaining dates at which lump-sum payments will be made to beneciaries: $317 million 6 months from now, $208 million 12 months from now, and $104 million 18 months from now. What is the market value of the pension liability?
What portfolio of the three Treasury bonds below would immunize the liability? (Match the cash ows.) time (months out) 0 6 12 18 T-Bond 1 100 103 0 0 T-Bond 2 98 2 102 0 T-Bond 3 103 4 4 104
Nearly matching cash ows: is this a good hedge?

Liability we want to hedge
Cash flow
10
15
10
15 Years from now
20
25
Proposed hedge
Cash flow
10
15
10
15 Years from now
20
25
Nearly matching cash ows: a diagnostic tool

Intuitively, it seems like the proposed hedge might do well, but how can we get an objective measure of how well it will do? We can use the same tool as we used for intuition, namely, plotting the net amount at risk at each future date as a measure of our exposure to the forward rate. For example, consider a liability of $100 a year from now with a present value of $95, and $200 two years from now with a present value of $190. Then the exposure is the full present value $285 from now until a year from now, the present value $190 of the second cash ow only from one year from now until two years from now, and $0 beyond two years. Consider funding the liability with a portfolio that pays $298 one and one-half years from now, with present value of $285. Then this investment has a risk exposure of $285 from now until one and one-half years out and $0 thereafter. The net exposure is the dierence of the two, which is $0 from now until one year out, $95 from one year out until one and one-half years out, $190 from one and one-half years out until two years out, and $0 thereafter.
Nearly matching cash ows: analysis

Net difference in remaining PV
Difference
10
15 Years from now
20
25
This looks at the net exposure to dierent forward rates from the liability plus candidate hedge. This plot gives the dierence between the present value of the subsequent cash ows between the liability and the candidate hedge.
Strict matching of cash ows: dierence = 0 Eective approximate hedge total area between the dierence and the axis is small areas above and below the axis are nearly matched in time
Matched duration: total signed area is zero
Caution: xed claims only

The exposure analysis only works (in this form) for nonrandom claims. For example, a bond fully indexed to the short rate has no exposure to shocks in interest rates. The same is true of the Macauley duration dened below: the formula for duration assumes nonrandom claims and does not work for oatingrate bonds and more complex claims.
Duration
When there is a single source of interest rate risk, it is useful to think of our measure of interest rate risk being the equivalent investment in a zero-coupon bond with the same risk exposure. The traditional (Macauley) measure of duration can be derived in a world in which there is a at term structure that can move up or down. With a at term structure, a small change in the interest rate gives an approximate proportional change in the value of a zero-coupon bond with time-to-maturity T . 1/(1 + r + )T 1/(1 + r)T T 1/(1 + r)T 1+r For a bond promising cash ows cs at each future time s, ct P (r) = t=1 (1 + r)t
T
is the value of the bond. Then for a small change in the interest rate r, the proportionate change in value is approximately
cs T s (1+r)s P (r + ) P (r) s=1 cs T P (r) 1 + r s=1 (1+r)s duration 1+r
The bonds duration is the value-weighted average time-to-maturity of the claim: duration =
T t=1 ct (1+r)t cs T s=1 (1+r)s
Matching risk exposures for small changes in r for the zero-coupon bond and the general bond, we see that the time-to-maturity of the zero-coupon bond is equal to the duration of the general bond.
Duration: some observations

The duration of a coupon bond or self-amortizing bond falls as rates rise. For long maturity coupon bonds, duration is much less than time-to-maturity. For near maturity coupon bonds, duration is close to time-to-maturity.
As maturity approaches innity, the duration of a par coupon bond approaches 1/r (exact with continuous coupon and compounding, (1+r/2)/r with semiannual coupon and compounding)
Duration for par coupon bonds

Duration of par coupon bonds for different maturities and coupon rates
40
50
0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0%
Duration in years
10
20
30
10
20
30
40
50
Years to maturity
Parallel moves in a at yield curve: the arb!

Arbitrage (!) if the yield curve is always flat but can move
endofperiod value with zero net initial investment
0.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
10
15
20
interest rate, %/year (initial rate = 10%) Long position in short and long maturities, short in an intermediate maturity
Strangely enough, having a at yield curve that moves up and down implies there is arbitrage! This is related to convexity of the bond price in the interest rate.
Eective duration
Eective duration captures the good features of duration while addressing its lack of exibility. The eective duration of an interest-sensitive security is the time-to-maturity of the zero-coupon bond with the same interest sensitivity. If we are looking at nonrandom claims, the eective duration is equal to Macauley duration. Eective duration can also be computed given dierent assumptions about interest rate shocks that do not hit all yields equally (which is good because short rates move around more than long rates). Also, eective duration can be computed for a variety of interest derivatives if we know how their prices depend interest rates. Option pricing theory is an ideal tool for performing this analysis; in the next lecture we will consider the use of option pricing tools in pricing interest derivatives. The rest of this lecture is devoted to a more traditional approach.
Eective duration of riskless bonds

In the traditional approach to dening eective duration, we need to make an assumption about the shape of the impact of interest rate shocks on the yield curve. Suppose we start with the forward rate curve f (s, t) at time s for dierent future times t and we think of an interest rate shock moving us to a nearby curve f (0, t) depending on the shock as f (s, t) = f (s, t) + x(t s) where x(t-s) is the sensitivity of the forward rate t-s periods out to this sort of shock. Each dierent function x(.) will give us a dierent duration measure.
Eective duration: shape of the shock

Factor analysis of errors in predicting next-period bond yields suggests using factors corresponding coarsely to the level of the yield curve, the slope of the yield curve, and curvature of the yield curve. The factor corresponding to levels explains the lions share of the variance and has a sensitivity of the forward price to the shock that declines as time-to-maturity increases. According to the estimates in one paper of mine,1 the function x(t s) = exp(.125(t s)) is a good t for this dominant factor. The corresponding shock to zero-coupon yields is sens(t s) = (1 exp(.125(t s)))/.125, that is, the eective duration of a bond with cash ows ct at times t = 1, 2, ..., T will have an eective duration that solves T sens(s)csD(0, s) sens(duration) = s=1 T s=1 cs D(0, s) which is the same as the formula for Macauley duration except substituting y(s) for the impact s on both sides and using the general formula D(0, s) for the discount factor. To solve for duration, it is useful to note that the log() (base e) is the inverse of exp(), and therefore duration = log(1 .125 sens)/.125.
Dybvig, Philip H., Bond and Bond Option Pricing Based on the Current Term Structure, 1997, Mathematics of Derivative Securities, Michael A. H. Dempster and Stanley Pliska, eds., Cambridge University Press.
1
Shape of the assumed shock

Sensitivity of forward rates to an interest shock
Sensitivity
0.8
0.0
0.4
Macauley effective
10
15 Time to maturity
20
25
30
Sensitivity of zerocoupon yields to an interest shock
Sensitivity
30
Macauley effective
10
20
10
15 Time to maturity
20
25
30
Eective duration computation

Sensitivity of zerocoupon yields to an interest shock
Sensitivity
20
25
30
Macauley effective
10
15
10
15 Time to maturity
20
25
30
What is the eective duration of a portfolio half invested in 5-year zero-coupon bonds and half invested in 25-year zero-coupon bonds? The Macauley duration is 15, while the eective duration is about 10.
In-class exercise: eective duration

Assuming the sensitivity of discount bond prices to a shock is given by sens(t s) = (1 exp(.125(t s)))/.125 (as we have been assuming), compute the Macauley duration and the eective duration of a bond which pays 3/4 of its value at 30 years out and 1/4 of the value 10 years out. Either use the graph on the previous slide to obtain an approximate value, or use the formulas from a couple of slides back to perform a more exact computation.
Multiple duration measures

One interesting traditional extension to using duration is to use multiple duration measures and to assert that the risk exposure is matched if each of the duration measures is matched. Thus, we may have a separate duration measure for upand-down movements in the whole yield curve, and for changes in the slope and curvature of the yield curve as well. In practice, using multiple measures is useful (and can give a more realistic assessment of the risk in positions that are designed to be neutral to a single duration measure). Often, using multiple measures is not much dierent in its prescription than approximate matching of cash ows as we have discussed earlier.

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Investments Lecture 4: Hedging Interest Rate Risk Exposure Traditional Methods

Philip H. Dybvig Washington University in Saint Louis Matching maturities

Multiple duration measures

Copyright c Philip H. Dybvig 2000

Interest rate risk exposure

Duration and eective duration Hedge ratio (beta or delta)

Some stylized properties of interest rate risk

Matching cash ows

No obvious corresponding risk measure

In-class exercise: matching cash ows

Nearly matching cash ows: is this a good hedge?

15 Years from now

15 Years from now

Nearly matching cash ows: a diagnostic tool

Nearly matching cash ows: analysis

15 Years from now

Matched duration: total signed area is zero

Caution: xed claims only

cs T s (1+r)s P (r + ) P (r) s=1 cs T P (r) 1 + r s=1 (1+r)s duration 1+r

Duration: some observations

Duration for par coupon bonds

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0%

Parallel moves in a at yield curve: the arb!

endofperiod value with zero net initial investment

Eective duration of riskless bonds

Eective duration: shape of the shock

Shape of the assumed shock

Sensitivity of zerocoupon yields to an interest shock

Eective duration computation

In-class exercise: eective duration

Multiple duration measures

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